PDA

View Full Version : Defensive Tackle Misses or Not?



cuzz4169
02-28-2012, 07:18 PM
Ok I keep reading people saying Denver keeps over looking the DT position in the draft. So I did a little research. I went back to the 2005 draft. I looked at the first 2 rounds and looked to see what DT's Denver could've had in those two rounds. I didn't include the DT's picked before Denver picked.

2005: Pick: Darrent Williams....Defensive Tackle taken after was only one Jonathon Babineaux..Did Denver miss on that one? Williams career was cut short do to tragedy but all indications was the kid was going to be a stud. Babineaux is an avg player at best.

2006: Pick: Jay Cutler....DT's taken after: Haloti Ngata, Brodrick Bunkley & John McCargo. Ngata would be nice but Denver didn't miss with Cutler. Denver was just dumb trading him. Bunkley is a bronco so we skipped his avg years. McCargo blows end of story.

2007: Pick: Jarvis Moss...DT taken after: there was only 1 DT taken in the first 2 rounds Alan Branch...The Moss pick was a bust. Branch again is a avg player.

2008: Pick: Ryan Clady...DT taken after: Kentwan Balmer, Trever Laws, Jason Jones....End of discussion.

2009: Picks: Moreno, Ayers...DT taken after: Peria Jerry, Ziggy Hood, Ron Brace, Fila Moala & Sen'Derrick Marks...This one can arguably go either way Ziggy Hood might be a guy who turns out to be a player. I can say same for Ayers. Ayers shouldn't have gone as high as he did in the draft. He will have a solid career. I don't believe he will ever be a 10 sack guy but he will be a solid player. Moreno is at best a 3rd down back a dime a dozen. I would give him away.

2010: Picks: Demaryius Thomas, Tim Tebow...DT taken after: Dan Williams, Jared Odrick, Torell Troup, Lamarr Houston, Linval Joseph, Mike Neal & Terrance Cody. very early not sure if I would make a big deal about any of these DT's. Odrick & Houston are nice player's but are 3-4 ends.

2011: Von Miller!!! I don't care who was picked after. But guys that were picked after denver's second round picks are Marvin Austin & Stephen Paea...to early to comment.

Defensive Tackle is a tough position to draft. Its a boom or bust position. Just look back at all the DT's taken in the first 2 rounds and there are more busts than booms. It has always been said that the QB position & DT are the hardest positions to translate to the NFL from College.

topscribe
02-28-2012, 07:24 PM
Nice work, Cuzz. Thanks.

And good to see you! :wave:

-----

WARHORSE
02-28-2012, 07:43 PM
Ok I keep reading people saying Denver keeps over looking the DT position in the draft. So I did a little research. I went back to the 2005 draft. I looked at the first 2 rounds and looked to see what DT's Denver could've had in those two rounds. I didn't include the DT's picked before Denver picked.

2005: Pick: Darrent Williams....Defensive Tackle taken after was only one Jonathon Babineaux..Did Denver miss on that one? Williams career was cut short do to tragedy but all indications was the kid was going to be a stud. Babineaux is an avg player at best.

2006: Pick: Jay Cutler....DT's taken after: Haloti Ngata, Brodrick Bunkley & John McCargo. Ngata would be nice but Denver didn't miss with Cutler. Denver was just dumb trading him. Bunkley is a bronco so we skipped his avg years. McCargo blows end of story.

2007: Pick: Jarvis Moss...DT taken after: there was only 1 DT taken in the first 2 rounds Alan Branch...The Moss pick was a bust. Branch again is a avg player.

2008: Pick: Ryan Clady...DT taken after: Kentwan Balmer, Trever Laws, Jason Jones....End of discussion.

2009: Picks: Moreno, Ayers...DT taken after: Peria Jerry, Ziggy Hood, Ron Brace, Fila Moala & Sen'Derrick Marks...This one can arguably go either way Ziggy Hood might be a guy who turns out to be a player. I can say same for Ayers. Ayers shouldn't have gone as high as he did in the draft. He will have a solid career. I don't believe he will ever be a 10 sack guy but he will be a solid player. Moreno is at best a 3rd down back a dime a dozen. I would give him away.

2010: Picks: Demaryius Thomas, Tim Tebow...DT taken after: Dan Williams, Jared Odrick, Torell Troup, Lamarr Houston, Linval Joseph, Mike Neal & Terrance Cody. very early not sure if I would make a big deal about any of these DT's. Odrick & Houston are nice player's but are 3-4 ends.

2011: Von Miller!!! I don't care who was picked after. But guys that were picked after denver's second round picks are Marvin Austin & Stephen Paea...to early to comment.

Defensive Tackle is a tough position to draft. Its a boom or bust position. Just look back at all the DT's taken in the first 2 rounds and there are more busts than booms. It has always been said that the QB position & DT are the hardest positions to translate to the NFL from College.


Agreed and Ive mentioned this a time or two myself. DT is a high bust position when it comes to the draft.

I think Ayers is going to pan out and step up this year, I really do.
Jason Jones is actually someone I can see us going after this year. Hes able to generate pressure in the middle of the defense playing at DT even though he was moved to DE last year.

I think Id love to see Kuechly fall to us or Barron. Since DT is deep, Id rather take a chance in the second than the first. Fletcher Cox is the guy Id target.

Jsteve01
02-28-2012, 07:48 PM
Agreed and Ive mentioned this a time or two myself. DT is a high bust position when it comes to the draft.

I think Ayers is going to pan out and step up this year, I really do.
Jason Jones is actually someone I can see us going after this year. Hes able to generate pressure in the middle of the defense playing at DT even though he was moved to DE last year.

I think Id love to see Kuechly fall to us or Barron. Since DT is deep, Id rather take a chance in the second than the first. Fletcher Cox is the guy Id target.

I really can't see Fletcher falling that far. After running a 4.79 yesterday, he may end up going even higher.

I like Kuechly a lot. Also really like Mychal Kendricks who has position flexibility. With he and Nate Irvin, either could be the Mike or Will and DJ could be jettisoned.

WARHORSE
02-28-2012, 08:18 PM
I really can't see Fletcher falling that far. After running a 4.79 yesterday, he may end up going even higher.

I like Kuechly a lot. Also really like Mychal Kendricks who has position flexibility. With he and Nate Irvin, either could be the Mike or Will and DJ could be jettisoned.

I have to say I agree with you simply because Fletcher has a ton of upside.

I really think hes going to be a beast, but how well can he play this year?


I think he can come in and bring interior pressure in a rotation right away, but whether or not he can come in and start is a question mark.

Hes decently strong at this point, but can bring it alot more, has the frame to fill out.

I would not be unhappy to see him at 25 if Denver thinks hes the man, however, I would actually rather trade down, and get him at the top of the second.

We shall see.

G_Money
02-28-2012, 08:31 PM
DT has the highest bust rate (or top two, anyway) of any position in the draft.

DT has the highest # of 1st round talents that make the Pro Bowl at those positions of any position drafted, even QB.

Sooo...

You risk blowing your pick by taking a DT in the first, but you can't barely get a Pro Bowler WITHOUT spending that first round pick on one.

It's a conundrum.

If we're hitting on other spots and wanted to pay for good DTs in FA, maybe it wouldn't be such a big deal, but most great DTs don't get away from the teams that drafted them, so you have to get lucky. Place a bet on Paul Soliai and see what happens.

There were good ones last year on the market - we passed.

So now maybe we'll draft one.

Did I mention that DT is one of the longer-gestating positions there is, so it takes 3 years to know how good yours is?

Fun times.

~G

WARHORSE
02-28-2012, 08:47 PM
DT has the highest bust rate (or top two, anyway) of any position in the draft.

DT has the highest # of 1st round talents that make the Pro Bowl at those positions of any position drafted, even QB.

Sooo...

You risk blowing your pick by taking a DT in the first, but you can't barely get a Pro Bowler WITHOUT spending that first round pick on one.

It's a conundrum.

If we're hitting on other spots and wanted to pay for good DTs in FA, maybe it wouldn't be such a big deal, but most great DTs don't get away from the teams that drafted them, so you have to get lucky. Place a bet on Paul Soliai and see what happens.

There were good ones last year on the market - we passed.

So now maybe we'll draft one.

Did I mention that DT is one of the longer-gestating positions there is, so it takes 3 years to know how good yours is?

Fun times.

~G


Yeah.....scary.

I would feel pretty good about Fletcher, but I also think if we signed Jones away from Tennessee we would have a great rotation that could bring pressure.

Resign Bunk, sign Jason Jones who can bring interior pressure, and keep Ayers in the middle on passing downs along with Vickerson, McBean, etc. Not to mention Warren.

Fletcher would take a couple of years to be who he can be.....but he can be alot.

BORDERLINE
02-28-2012, 09:28 PM
good info!!!

CoachChaz
02-29-2012, 08:43 AM
Sign Jones AND draft Fletcher. I wouldnt be disappointed to add those two while losing Unrein/McBean.

Dirk
02-29-2012, 09:27 AM
Nice job on the research cuzz!

BigDaddyBronco
02-29-2012, 09:36 AM
I guess we could ask if we would have been better off with Haloti Ngata and Jake Plummer or with Cutler. I'll take Ngata and Plummer.

LTC Pain
02-29-2012, 10:38 AM
Thanks Cuzz, good info.

topscribe
02-29-2012, 12:42 PM
I guess we could ask if we would have been better off with Haloti Ngata and Jake Plummer or with Cutler. I'll take Ngata and Plummer.

Oh, but if you ask some people around here, Jake was neither a leader nor
a winner. I guess most of them became Broncos fans after Jake had
quarterbacked the Broncos to three straight playoff years and was 7-4
when he was benched.

But, yeah, I liked Cutler, but I would have been happy with that
combination any day.

Still, it may be tit for tat: I agree with Cuzz that the Broncos did not miss
with drafting Cutler. As I think he implied, they missed with hiring
McDaniels . . .

-----

TheReverend
02-29-2012, 03:37 PM
DT has the highest # of 1st round talents that make the Pro Bowl at those positions of any position drafted, even QB.

I'm not sure I buy this line.

TheReverend
02-29-2012, 03:45 PM
I'm not sure I buy this line.

To emphasize that, I found this post that I wrote up last year when people were pimping Dareus:


I'd post this - First round DTs over the past decade (exclude past 3 years to give "can't miss" guys like Dorsey and McCoy time to develop and become proven):

Okoye - Huge disappointment
Harrell - Flat out bust
Ngata - Winner
Bunkley - Failure
McCargo - 1 start in 5 years lol
Travis Johnson - Bust
Patterson - Mediocre
Harris - Hit: Well above average, two big impact seasons
Wilfork - Great hit
Tubbs - Bust
Robertson - Bust
Sullivan - Bust
Kennedy - Major bust
Joseph - Bust
Sims - Bust. One of my favorite KC draft picks Ha!
Henderson - Hit, solid player for a LONG time
Bryant - Mega bust
Haynesworth - Hit... sometimes extremely dominant.
Warren - Bust. VERY disappointing
Lewis - Miss, disappointing
Stroud - Hit. Used to be dominant
Hampton - Hit.
Pickett - Hit. Above average but not great.


I think I was being generous with the "hits". Even then 8/23 First round picks even remotely lived up to expectations.

The funny thing? Almost all were towards the end of the round. The top 10 selections have had an ASTOUNDING whiff rate.

The DT bust rate is a scary premise.

That being said, I still want my Devon Still in orange and blue at the end of April.

Also, that Bunkley judgment might be a tad premature after his resurgence in Denver haha

G_Money
02-29-2012, 07:00 PM
I'm not sure I buy this line.

Ugh, lemme see if I can find the post (was it here, or on the freak? Crap...) where I busted out how many DTs busted vs. how many first rounders made up pro bowl rosters in the 2000s.

The numbers get skewed vs QBs because guys like Brees and Brady weren't first rounders so they drop the "1st round QB" percentage, but it's still pretty enlightening to see just how many Pro Bowl / All Pro caliber DL are first round guys.

~G

Jsteve01
02-29-2012, 07:11 PM
To emphasize that, I found this post that I wrote up last year when people were pimping Dareus:



The DT bust rate is a scary premise.

That being said, I still want my Devon Still in orange and blue at the end of April.

Also, that Bunkley judgment might be a tad premature after his resurgence in Denver haha

A little Penn State bias senor Lansdale?

Jsteve01
02-29-2012, 07:13 PM
I know we all love to bash McBean around here but he was the only interior lineman that generated any kind of pass rush last year and he managed to do it while playing NT. He also played a higher pct of snaps than anyone else on the line. I know he drove us crazy two years ago, but he was a very pleasant surprise for me last year

TheReverend
03-01-2012, 12:46 PM
A little Penn State bias senor Lansdale?

A whole lot more than a little bro lol