PDA

View Full Version : What would it take for Tebow to be considered a successful starter next year?



Bullgator
01-23-2012, 02:28 PM
So after a winning record in the NFL this year AND a playoff win, AFTER he inherited a 1-4 start, MANY are not happy with Tim as a starter. Many on this board especially.

SO... My question is what would it take?

wayninja
01-23-2012, 02:30 PM
Quitting to play in handball tourneys?

NightTerror218
01-23-2012, 02:36 PM
55-60% completion, better ball control (less fumbles). More confident passes and quicker release(not holding ball forever).

He has his first off season to work on his mechanics and passing with coaches rather then preparing for a game. He needs to focus on this.

TXBRONC
01-23-2012, 02:36 PM
We've answered this question mulitple times.

underrated29
01-23-2012, 02:38 PM
hard to say. I think our schedule next year is A LOT tougher!!! and if we keep mccoy and Lose Allen we are far worse off.

But then tebow will also have had time to practice, an offseason so that will help. I say if he can tread water it should be a success. 8 wins imo should do it.

Until we can start calling more than 4 plays (run, option, pass w/go routes, pa pass w/ go routes) our offense is not ever going to score a lot of points and thus we will lose quite a few games.


So basically for me, no regressions and some improvement. I do not (unlike many) expect him to become this competent passer in one offseason. Tebow was the biggest project QB ever, its going to take some time. Knowing that, if he can match the wins and show improvement in areas, Like reading and throwing into zones, then it would be a success.

OMorange&blue
01-23-2012, 02:38 PM
Wins are important, but we have a lot of areas that need to improve and will affect the record, especially with a 1st place schedule.

more important are improved pre snap reads and reading d's overall. I would think that would be reflected in his stats as follows:
Averaging 18-22 attempts per game and improvement in following bolded completion percentages.

BY PASS PLAY CMP ATT YDS CMP%
Pass Thrown Behind
Line of Scrimmage 24 32 130 75
Pass Thrown 1-10 yds 55 95 501 57.9
Pass Thrown 11-20 yds 31 84 575 36.9
Pass Thrown 21-30 yds 10 32 292 31.3
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 4 21 181 19
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 0 5 0 0

wayninja
01-23-2012, 02:38 PM
Why are wins on this poll? We got 9 this year, why would doing it again mean anything?

Everyone knows it was the defense who got us those wins, anyway.

Bullgator
01-23-2012, 02:39 PM
Quitting to play in handball tourneys?

See you would be in the "Just don't like him" group. Any fan of their team would like a player if he is at least bringing his team success...

It seems that your hate for Tebow is much greater than your love for your Broncos.

My question was what would it take for you to like the kid and you answered for him to go away... Not improve his passing skills as any rational fan would say.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 02:41 PM
See you would be in the "Just don't like him" group. Any fan of their team would like a player if he is at least bringing his team success...

It seems that your hate for Tebow is much greater than your love for your Broncos.

My question was what would it take for you to like the kid and you answered for him to go away... Not improve his passing skills as any rational fan would say.

Yep, you got me, Bull. You've a good read on people. Also, you are well versed in Broncos QB history.

Bullgator
01-23-2012, 02:42 PM
Yep, you got me, Bull. You've a good read on people. Also, you are well versed in Broncos QB history.

Was there ever a doubt...

LTC Pain
01-23-2012, 02:44 PM
9+ wins, accurate passing from the pocket and 55%+ completion percentage should be TT's goals next season.

G_Money
01-23-2012, 02:45 PM
1) Stop fumbling the damn ball. The games he cost us weren't all in the air - he led the league in fumbles and didn't even play 3/4 of the season. Gotta have better ball security than that, because everyone's gonna attack it now that they know it's a weakness.

2) Be consistent with your passes. I'm not asking for miracles of pinpoint sharpshooting, just hit guys in the hands in stride, or when you miss do it in a place they can go down to get it instead of high and into coverage. Yes, receivers dropped balls this year, but we can fix the receiver issue if Tim can get them the ball.

3) Timing and decisiveness. Get some. Running around aimlessly for 8 seconds is not having "pocket presence." Go through your progressions and find a guy, or if the pocket breaks down go UP field. 30 yard sacks are hilarious but tend to be unproductive in the long term. Also, you are allowed to throw it away. In case you didn't read that part of the rule book.

I just want to see him improve as a passer. He doesn't need to get to where Brees is at the moment, but he does need to approximate where Brees was in his 3rd season (though hopefully with a better TD/INT ratio). I still have McNair as his template, so that would give him another rough year on the learning curve (based on games played) but people will be howling louder for his head if he can't get more accurate and make better decisions next season.

Gotta be a QB who's feared as a runner, not a RB who's occasionally a threat to throw. I think he can get there. McCoy can help, as can the FO, but in the end it's gonna be on Tebow.

I'm sure he wouldn't have it any other way.

~G

BeefStew25
01-23-2012, 02:46 PM
Hit underneath routes after he goes through his progressions.

Discover TE's.

Quit pushing SUV's up hills.

G_Money
01-23-2012, 02:46 PM
PS - wayninja, you're busting me up. Use sarcasm font so you don't make Tebow-homer heads explode.

~G

claymore
01-23-2012, 02:51 PM
Step up in the pocket and throw for a first down. Quit running around like a chicken with your head cut off. Get some touch. Turn it on in all qtr's not late in the 4th.

chazoe60
01-23-2012, 02:51 PM
What G-Money said.


Can we just get a "what G-Money said" button so that we can quit wasting time typing it over and over again. tia

wayninja
01-23-2012, 02:52 PM
1) Stop fumbling the damn ball. The games he cost us weren't all in the air - he led the league in fumbles and didn't even play 3/4 of the season. Gotta have better ball security than that, because everyone's gonna attack it now that they know it's a weakness.

2) Be consistent with your passes. I'm not asking for miracles of pinpoint sharpshooting, just hit guys in the hands in stride, or when you miss do it in a place they can go down to get it instead of high and into coverage. Yes, receivers dropped balls this year, but we can fix the receiver issue if Tim can get them the ball.

3) Timing and decisiveness. Get some. Running around aimlessly for 8 seconds is not having "pocket presence." Go through your progressions and find a guy, or if the pocket breaks down go UP field. 30 yard sacks are hilarious but tend to be unproductive in the long term. Also, you are allowed to throw it away. In case you didn't read that part of the rule book.

I just want to see him improve as a passer. He doesn't need to get to where Brees is at the moment, but he does need to approximate where Brees was in his 3rd season (though hopefully with a better TD/INT ratio). I still have McNair as his template, so that would give him another rough year on the learning curve (based on games played) but people will be howling louder for his head if he can't get more accurate and make better decisions next season.

Gotta be a QB who's feared as a runner, not a RB who's occasionally a threat to throw. I think he can get there. McCoy can help, as can the FO, but in the end it's gonna be on Tebow.

I'm sure he wouldn't have it any other way.

~G

Well said!

Although, this would only really sway rational people. So, there would really only be about a 5% swing on the approval scale.

NightTerror218
01-23-2012, 02:53 PM
1) Stop fumbling the damn ball. The games he cost us weren't all in the air - he led the league in fumbles and didn't even play 3/4 of the season. Gotta have better ball security than that, because everyone's gonna attack it now that they know it's a weakness.

2) Be consistent with your passes. I'm not asking for miracles of pinpoint sharpshooting, just hit guys in the hands in stride, or when you miss do it in a place they can go down to get it instead of high and into coverage. Yes, receivers dropped balls this year, but we can fix the receiver issue if Tim can get them the ball.

3) Timing and decisiveness. Get some. Running around aimlessly for 8 seconds is not having "pocket presence." Go through your progressions and find a guy, or if the pocket breaks down go UP field. 30 yard sacks are hilarious but tend to be unproductive in the long term. Also, you are allowed to throw it away. In case you didn't read that part of the rule book.

I just want to see him improve as a passer. He doesn't need to get to where Brees is at the moment, but he does need to approximate where Brees was in his 3rd season (though hopefully with a better TD/INT ratio). I still have McNair as his template, so that would give him another rough year on the learning curve (based on games played) but people will be howling louder for his head if he can't get more accurate and make better decisions next season.

Gotta be a QB who's feared as a runner, not a RB who's occasionally a threat to throw. I think he can get there. McCoy can help, as can the FO, but in the end it's gonna be on Tebow.

I'm sure he wouldn't have it any other way.

~G

Some people wont be happy with that. If he is not a FQB or HOF QB then he is unwanted.

claymore
01-23-2012, 02:55 PM
Well said!

Although, this would only really sway rational people. So, there would really only be about a 5% swing on the approval scale.


Some people wont be happy with that. If he is not a FQB or HOF QB then he is unwanted.

I think that most of the "haters" would be very happy with that. we just dont think he is capable of it.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 02:57 PM
I think that most of the "haters" would be very happy with that. we just dont think he is capable of it.

Not all the haters are as rational as you, Clay.

Bullgator
01-23-2012, 02:58 PM
PS - wayninja, you're busting me up. Use sarcasm font so you don't make Tebow-homer heads explode.

~G

Don't kid yourself G... Its only masquerading as sarcasm.

NightTerror218
01-23-2012, 02:58 PM
I think that most of the "haters" would be very happy with that. we just dont think he is capable of it.

Is a part of the fanbase in general. They are never happy with the Broncos QB, no matter what. Everyone has heat from the fans. Since Elway has left nobody has been able to fill his shoes and fan have never been 100% behind a single QB.

iLands
01-23-2012, 02:58 PM
LOL @ wayninja:

Gator: He was just trolling about Jake the Snake. He's more in the "wait and see" camp.

First and foremost, I'm utterly disgusted by this false dichotomy presented by many posters. The straw man? Great analysis :eyeroll:

No one is saying they wouldn't want Tebow to improve. I haven't read that opinion even expressed on this board. It's an absolutely ludicrous assumption and plenty of people place that wedge so their own position doesn't immediately evaporate under scrutiny.

We do need our quarterback to be better. In my mind, the most important improvements he could make are in his footwork and his decision making. How many times have you seen him oscillate between a pass, scrambling, and tucking and running? Too many. When I see those things, I do cringe but I also have hope. Those two key things are purely coachable. If we see those improvements, his metrics across the board will rise and I think we'll see less complaints.

I'm going to be frank and people will probably not like my opinion.

I think next season is going to be the toughest in Tebow's short career. The AFC West has the toughest schedule in the NFL and this is magnified for us since we won the division.

He will be tested in the harshest of fires. Our entire team will be. We will be playing against three of the best defenses in the league and some of the most elite offenses ever assembled.

In short, we will be perfectly prepared for a deep playoff run if we have success.

Keep everything in perspective.

This league isn't a vacuum. Tebow will certainly have some terrible games next year. Everyone in our division is going to have some absolutely soul-rending losses.

In the sake of objectivity, judge our team next year against the rest of our division.

I think 7-9 could win our division next year and I'm certain 9-7 will.

If we survive and win the AFC West, our young team will have been tested by the hottest fires that the current NFL can produce and we will be a tremendous team.

OMorange&blue
01-23-2012, 02:59 PM
I think that most of the "haters" would be very happy with that. we just dont think he is capable of it.

He is totally capable of learning to read a D. He's just not going to get there pushing SUV's around his home town and doing book tours.

Tebow's future will be determined before training camp starts.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 03:04 PM
He is totally capable of learning to read a D. He's just not going to get there pushing SUV's around his home town and doing book tours.

Tebow's future will be determined before training camp starts.

I agree, if he works on his mechanics, he won't need to push an SUV around, he will be able to replace the fuel injection system.

BeefStew25
01-23-2012, 03:53 PM
I secretly want him to get laid also, if only for him to find an edge.

cmc0605
01-23-2012, 04:03 PM
First off, as fans we need to recognize that Tebow had essentially rookie experience this season. He only played a couple games last year, didn't play a complete season this year, had no offseason, and had two completely different coaches to develop with. He deserves at least another year to prove whether he should be the future of this team. It takes some people, like Eli Manning, to really get to a point where they can lead the team. I have concerns about his capacity for improvement given his catapult arm, and I don't know how bright the guy is (or whether he will learn to read defenses and become the general on the field). I hope he can develop these parts of game to a respectable level though, because a duo arm-leg threat would keep defenses on their toes. He also needs to be able to hit the safety valve receivers (e.g., the RB out of the backfield). Anyone who watched the Giants game last night can see how well hitting Bradshaw/Jacobs on short routes works for them, and the short passing game is how Brady tears apart defenses before he hits the big one. Running around for 10 seconds like an idiot and throwing a big one to Thomas makes good highlights, but it's not a way to play consistently. The simple reality is that in this era, if Tebow can't hit short crossing routes or screens, he shouldn't be the QB.

The fan base also needs to get around the assumption that a QBs W-L record is a good proxy for his success as a player. The argument that "Tebow was winning!" is no longer convincing, especially since we got destroyed by every respectable team we played against (including Detroit and NE twice), were blown at by Buffalo, couldn't win against KC when we really needed to, etc. Winning against a Miami team that fell apart, a Chicago team that fell apart with Marion Barber, and a half-injured Pittsburgh team kept a good illusion alive, but the fact is that Tebow needs to get a lot better. So do other guys. The WRs need to catch better, the defense has a lot of holes, and special teams is mediocre-at-best.

LSIGRAD09
01-23-2012, 05:47 PM
I would say 9+ wins, however, if he shows improvement, good improvement, I will consider that as well.

That's all I am looking for.

BeefStew25
01-23-2012, 06:46 PM
Did you see Eli stand in and take a hit and let his routes develop?

That.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 07:04 PM
Wins are what quarterbacks are ultimately judged on, but there's a lot more that goes into being a competent NFL quarterback than winning.

Tebow isn't there, yet. I, obviously, have my doubts about if he'll ever get there.

Completion percentage, hitting checkdowns, fitting the ball into windows, sustaining more than one drive a game, completing third down throws that are third and four, five and six, not missing receivers on comeback routes by three or four yards. There's a lot to work on.

broken12
01-23-2012, 07:08 PM
Winning record ....able to make all the reads and throws .....who cares about percentage brady was under 50 percent for most of the game yesterday and won the game....if u can make the throws ur receivers should make plays afterwards.

Lancane
01-23-2012, 07:47 PM
Learning to trust his receivers, and to perceive his receivers on their routes. Better ball control and touch, how to put some spin on the football for better velocity which would help with accuracy and could help him with his own confidence to where he can put the ball in tighter windows. On his footwork, timing and release as well, which only improves his development. I would like to see him learn to how to better sell the pump-fake which could help his timing and breathing room from the pocket. At least a 55% completion ratio, and averaging about 250 yards passing a game at least, I'm not so much worried about wins as long as he's improving...wins will come later, especially if he develops into a more pro-style quarterback.

BORDERLINE
01-23-2012, 09:12 PM
I think Tebow already has a lot of the pre-requisites you guys are asking for. I watched every game he played in this year. He can throw it deep. He ca throw it short. He can run. He can do many things. What's missing is CONSISTENTCY!!!

He needs to put it all together and keep it going. Not just in the 4th but the whole game. He needs to do it Consistently, plain and simple. Flashes here and there are great but to convince all his nay sayers he has to do it consistently.

I for one believe he exceeded expectations. Playoffs and a playoff WIN. If Let's say Tebow got us to 8-8 minus the collapse which means no 6 game winning streak and let's say no playoffs and this next year would have won the division and a playoff game would we all be cheering for the kid and pointing out his "improvement"?

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 09:20 PM
I think Tebow already has a lot of the pre-requisites you guys are asking for. I watched every game he played in this year. He can throw it deep. He ca throw it short. He can run. He can do many things. What's missing is CONSISTENTCY!!!

He needs to put it all together and keep it going. Not just in the 4th but the whole game. He needs to do it Consistently, plain and simple. Flashes here and there are great but to convince all his nay sayers he has to do it consistently.

I for one believe he exceeded expectations. Playoffs and a playoff WIN. If Let's say Tebow got us to 8-8 minus the collapse which means no 6 game winning streak and let's say no playoffs and this next year would have won the division and a playoff game would we all be cheering for the kid and pointing out his "improvement"?

Of course he can make the throws standing in pads (maybe)...and yes he's made a few of the throws needed to be made.

It's not just consistency, because he's not even been remotely consistent. So when people say he can't make the throws it's not that he physically can't make the throw. It's that he cannot show it even on a regular basis, let alone a consistent basis.

To try and quantify this somehow, let's say bad is 40 percent, regular is 50 percent and consistent is 60 percent or better.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 09:48 PM
Of course he can make the throws standing in pads (maybe)...and yes he's made a few of the throws needed to be made.

It's not just consistency, because he's not even been remotely consistent. So when people say he can't make the throws it's not that he physically can't make the throw. It's that he cannot show it even on a regular basis, let alone a consistent basis.

To try and quantify this somehow, let's say bad is 40 percent, regular is 50 percent and consistent is 60 percent or better.

If he can physically make the throw, then he can physically consistently make the throw. Whether or not he WILL do it all you are really arguing. So, basically, you are just pessimistic that he will.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 09:56 PM
If he can physically make the throw, then he can physically consistently make the throw. Whether or not he WILL do it all you are really arguing. So, basically, you are just pessimistic that he will.

Just because he can physically make the throw once or twice, doesn't mean he can consistently do it, so I would disagree that because he can physically make throws means he can physically do it consistantly.

It's very hard to put perameters on such a sibjective thing.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 09:59 PM
Just because he can physically make the throw once or twice, doesn't mean he can consistently do it, so I would disagree that because he can physically make throws means he can physically do it consistantly.

It's very hard to put perameters on such a sibjective thing.

How many before he can do it consistently? 3? 10?

You're right, this is a hard thing to judge, but we are talking about what is possible. I would agree with you if he did it once and only once, but doing it more than once means that it's physically possible to do every time. That's not guaranteeing that success, just that it's possible.

More importantly, does completing a high percentage really, at the end of the day, mean all that much? Jason Campbell completes around 60%, but I would take Tebow at 40% than Campbell at 60% any day.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 10:05 PM
How many before he can do it consistently? 3? 10?

You're right, this is a hard thing to judge, but we are talking about what is possible. I would agree with you if he did it once and only once, but doing it more than once means that it's physically possible to do every time. That's not guaranteeing that success, just that it's possible.

More importantly, does completing a high percentage really, at the end of the day, mean all that much? Jason Campbell completes around 60%, but I would take Tebow at 40% than Campbell at 60% any day.

Point 1...No, it doesn't mean he can consistently complete the throw because he can physically make the throw. And its very long term. People love to point out when other quarterbacks complete less than 60 percent in one game, but its not about three throws, or 10 throws or one game, it's a body of work.

Point 2...In the long run, and we're talking years, I'll take the quarterback who can complete 60 percent of his passes rather than 40 percent, regardless of the name associated with said passing completion percentage.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 10:11 PM
Point 1...No, it doesn't mean he can consistently complete the throw because he can physically make the throw. And its very long term. People love to point out when other quarterbacks complete less than 60 percent in one game, but its not about three throws, or 10 throws or one game, it's a body of work.

Point 2...In the long run, and we're talking years, I'll take the quarterback who can complete 60 percent of his passes rather than 40 percent, regardless of the name associated with said passing completion percentage.

I like your bulleted list and will continue as such;

Point 1: Yes it does mean he can. What else determines the possibility? If he can physically make the throw once, what barrier are you talking about that prevents him from doing it more?

Point 2: You are missing the point here. You would really just look at this one stat and declare a winner long term? Even if Campbell has a high percentage of his incompletions picked off? Even if Tebows attempt to touchdown ratio is MUCH higher? Even if he doubles Campbells all purpose yards in a game? That's sorta shortsighted.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 10:18 PM
I like your bulleted list and will continue as such;

Point 1: Yes it does mean he can. What else determines the possibility? If he can physically make the throw once, what barrier are you talking about that prevents him from doing it more?

Point 2: You are missing the point here. You would really just look at this one stat and declare a winner long term? Even if Campbell has a high percentage of his incompletions picked off? Even if Tebows attempt to touchdown ratio is MUCH higher? Even if he doubles Campbells all purpose yards in a game? That's sorta shortsighted.

Point 1 - Reality. And chance. And probability. If I paint a dot on the wall, and sit here and try to throw a tennis ball at the dot, I could easily hit it once or twice, and have the physical ability to hit said target. That doesn't automatically mean that I can hit it consistently. Can I improve me chances with time, yes, but that doesn't mean that I automatically can do it consistently.

Point 2 - Now you're introducing some variables, and that is a legitimate argument to the completion percentage argument. However, if you ask me to pick one based on that stat, I'm taking the quarterback that completes more of his throws.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 10:53 PM
Point 1 - Reality. And chance. And probability. If I paint a dot on the wall, and sit here and try to throw a tennis ball at the dot, I could easily hit it once or twice, and have the physical ability to hit said target. That doesn't automatically mean that I can hit it consistently. Can I improve me chances with time, yes, but that doesn't mean that I automatically can do it consistently.

Again, you've shifted from possibility, to probability. We aren't talking about 1 in a million full-court basketball shots, we are talking about the physical ability (possibility) of making NFL style throws. We know he CAN, because he has, and more times than luck would dictate. So now the only question is how PROBABLE is it that he will make the throws we know he can make more consistently. It might be a nitpick, but that's the crux of the disagreement.


Point 2 - Now you're introducing some variables, and that is a legitimate argument to the completion percentage argument. However, if you ask me to pick one based on that stat, I'm taking the quarterback that completes more of his throws.

But I wasn't asking you to pick a single stat. I wouldn't have included the names if that's what I was after, I was hoping that you'd consider that despite his 60% completion percentage, Jason Campbell sucks.

BORDERLINE
01-23-2012, 10:59 PM
:popcorn:

this thread got good!!!!!!

can't wait until mo and wayninja start arguing quantum physics:elefant:

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 11:04 PM
Again, you've shifted from possibility, to probability. We aren't talking about 1 in a million full-court basketball shots, we are talking about the physical ability (possibility) of making NFL style throws. We know he CAN, because he has, and more times than luck would dictate. So now the only question is how PROBABLE is it that he will make the throws we know he can make more consistently. It might be a nitpick, but that's the crux of the disagreement.

Actually, it wasn't more than luck would dictate, IMO. I don't understand why you don't comprehend the idea that even if he can physically make the throw, he can't make it consistently. If every quarterback that could physically make the throw could do it consistenly, the NFL would never have a shortage of quarterbacks. I think it's fairly obvious the answer to that...


But I wasn't asking you to pick a single stat. I wouldn't have included the names if that's what I was after, I was hoping that you'd consider that despite his 60% completion percentage, Jason Campbell sucks.

Unfortunately, it's possible that Tebow sucks too.

BeefStew25
01-23-2012, 11:06 PM
Great argument. Mo isn't getting personal, and Way In You is civil, yet politely kicking Mo's ass.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 11:12 PM
I'm concerned that I'm the only one who understands that Tebow, even if he can make the throws, might not be able to make them consistently...

BeefStew25
01-23-2012, 11:15 PM
I'm concerned that I'm the only one who understands that Tebow, even if he can make the throws, might not be able to make them consistently...

I guess that is why we get to watch him next year too. No worries.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 11:16 PM
Actually, it wasn't more than luck would dictate, IMO. I don't understand why you don't comprehend the idea that even if he can physically make the throw, he can't make it consistently. If every quarterback that could physically make the throw could do it consistenly, the NFL would never have a shortage of quarterbacks. I think it's fairly obvious the answer to that...

I don't comprehend it, because it doesn't make sense. Also you haven't defined clearly enough what 'consistently' even means for me to support my argument with anything more than vague notions of whether has or has not.

Just because a quarterback doesn't consistently make throws does not mean that he can't. Not doing something and not being able to do something are simply two different things. I'm not saying that because Tebow can, he will, I'm simply saying that he can. Whether he will or not remains to be seen. Again, it's a simple distinction and probably obvious, but that's what this has become about.




Unfortunately, it's possible that Tebow sucks too.

Yes, but not probable.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 11:21 PM
Haha, if you would have just said this initially, I would have had no problem with it.

He can make the throws, but simply might not do it consistently. Only time will tell.

I did say that initially.


Just because he can physically make the throw once or twice, doesn't mean he can consistently do it, so I would disagree that because he can physically make throws means he can physically do it consistantly.

It's very hard to put perameters on such a sibjective thing.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 11:26 PM
I did say that initially.

Yes, my mistake, I misread your second post which is why I deleted my post. Apparently not fast enough.

I'll put it another way. Why don't Baseball sluggers hit homeruns everytime or nearly every time they are at bat? Sure, they can do it, but can they do it consistently?

I'm not claiming that throwing is as difficult as hitting home runs, but the abiilty to do something doesn't speak a whole lot into how often you can do something. Consistency is shaped by practice, luck, focus and many other such unquantifiable varibles. The only thing that is not in doubt is whether or not it's possible. It is.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 11:33 PM
Yes, my mistake, I misread your second post which is why I deleted my post. Apparently not fast enough.

I'll put it another way. Why don't Baseball sluggers hit homeruns everytime or nearly every time they are at bat? Sure, they can do it, but can they do it consistently?

I'm not claiming that throwing is as difficult as hitting home runs, but the abiilty to do something doesn't speak a whole lot into how often you can do something. Consistency is shaped by practice, luck, focus and many other such unquantifiable varibles. The only thing that is not in doubt is whether or not it's possible. It is.

The same thing applies to hitting a baseball. The best hitters hit at above .300. Competent hitter hit, probably at above .275. The best quarterbacks hit 65 percent of their throws. Competent quarterbacks hit above 58 percent of their throws.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 11:39 PM
The same thing applies to hitting a baseball. The best hitters hit at above .300. Competent hitter hit, probably at above .275. The best quarterbacks hit 65 percent of their throws. Competent quarterbacks hit above 58 percent of their throws.

It seems like you are confusing an average with consistency. If you told me that you could only do something 30% of the time, I'd have a hard time calling you consistent.

But that's besides the point, we aren't arguing what percentage Tebow is at, we are arguing if it's possible to get to a higher percentage. And the fact is that yes, it is possible. There is nothing physical restricting Tebow from getting to this higher percentage. Again, possibility is no guarantee by any means, and clearly you don't think it's very probable. But that simply doesn't mean he is unable to do so. If Tebow was at 5% or something stupid like that, you may have a practical point.

I'll again point out that Campbell is about 60% and very few people would call him among the best quarterbacks. Or anywhere close.

MOtorboat
01-23-2012, 11:42 PM
It seems like you are confusing an average with consistency. If you told me that you could only do something 30% of the time, I'd have a hard time calling you consistent.

But that's besides the point, we aren't arguing what percentage Tebow is at, we are arguing if it's possible to get to a higher percentage. And the fact is that yes, it is possible. There is nothing physical restricting Tebow from getting to this higher percentage. Again, possibility is no guarantee by any means, and clearly you don't think it's very probable. But that simply doesn't mean he is unable to do so. If Tebow was at 5% or something stupid like that, you may have a practical point.

I'll again point out that Campbell is about 60% and very few people would call him among the best quarterbacks. Or anywhere close.

Tebow is hitting well below the Mendoza line.

It's unacceptable.

wayninja
01-23-2012, 11:44 PM
Tebow is hitting well below the Mendoza line.

It's unacceptable.

I agree with you, he needs to improve. He can improve. Time will tell if he does improve.

silkamilkamonico
01-24-2012, 12:01 AM
SO... My question is what would it take?

Competing every week.

Not having one solid to good game, and then going 3 for 13 and 9 for 22 in the next 2.

BORDERLINE
01-24-2012, 01:36 AM
mo and wayninja great debate!!!!

nothing like starting a fire and watching it BURN

DenBronx
01-24-2012, 05:30 AM
Did you see Eli stand in and take a hit and let his routes develop?

That.


Your Avi is disturbing.

Chef Zambini
01-24-2012, 08:32 AM
55-60% completion, better ball control (less fumbles). More confident passes and quicker release(not holding ball forever).

He has his first off season to work on his mechanics and passing with coaches rather then preparing for a game. He needs to focus on this.its NOT his first off season, he did extensive work before the draft, he had a complete rookie campaign, wasting an ENTITRE pre-season in an attempt top change his mechanics.
same crap they are going to try and accomplish this off-season.
I completely agree with the resat of your post, but to suggest that TEBOW hasnt had a chance to weork on all these things before this off season is simply niot true!
he regressed during the lock-out, his OWN fault ! he could have worked with privaste coaches and tutors, instead he did commercials and focused on his religious involvements.
I think he will be a total failure as a pocket passer, his habits, instincts and skill set all work against that. but WTF do I know,
I called lelie a sideline warrior,
I doubted marino after 3 games
I said orton/ JMCD combo would NOT win 3 more games after their very first loss at 6-1
I waqs chastized for suggesting HILLIS should get more touches
and I believe in 2 TE and a FB formations,
like that would ever get a team to the SB in this modern day of pass happy offenses.

Chef Zambini
01-24-2012, 08:36 AM
He shows little capacity to read defenses either before or after the snap of the ball.
MAYBE that can improve, but I have my doubts.

arapaho2
01-24-2012, 11:39 AM
The same thing applies to hitting a baseball. The best hitters hit at above .300. Competent hitter hit, probably at above .275. The best quarterbacks hit 65 percent of their throws. Competent quarterbacks hit above 58 percent of their throws.


i guess i have an issue ...not so much your thinking, more like what your not including

sure we all see tebow needs to improve his passing numbers...thats a gimmie

sure we all see he has the abilitiy to make all the throws needed...but can he be consistant

but lets consider how hard it is to actually CONSISTANTLY complete a third down pass...or in fact when trailing late in the game and the coach finaly decides its time to pass...

we all know he needs to improve...but improved playcalling is gonna improve his numbers also

Ravage!!!
01-24-2012, 12:30 PM
The playcalling was NOT the problem. The playcalling was what made Tebow have ANY success at all. The playcalling SAVED Tebow from having to throw the ball.

People kept saying that "practices didn't matter"....yet it was shown time and time and time and time again WHY the coaches didn't believe in Tebow's throwing from what they saw in practice. So they coached around it.

Now, when the games relied on Tebow to throw the ball, he failed MISERABLY... and people want to blame the playcalling.

You can't call plays that you know your QB has a very low chance of accomplishing. Why would they WANT Tebow to throw more often? They didn't. The NE game as a perfect example...we were down by 14, then by 7...and the coaches HAD to stick with what they knew........ keep Tebow from throwing, stick to the ground game, and hope for some turnovers. Play the field position game as best we can, and protect Tebow from throwing.

I think the way the coaches developed a system that protected Tim from throwing is what saved this season, and that IS the playcalling.

wayninja
01-24-2012, 12:45 PM
The playcalling was NOT the problem. The playcalling was what made Tebow have ANY success at all. The playcalling SAVED Tebow from having to throw the ball.

Tebow threw the ball. Not sure what this means. Throwing less or not at all isn't good playcalling no matter how you want to spin it. I'm not saying stupid chances should be taken, but lets not pretend the playcalling was always stellar.



People kept saying that "practices didn't matter"....yet it was shown time and time and time and time again WHY the coaches didn't believe in Tebow's throwing from what they saw in practice. So they coached around it.

But that's really no less a gamble than the alternative.


Now, when the games relied on Tebow to throw the ball, he failed MISERABLY... and people want to blame the playcalling.

He did? Like Minnesota or Pittsburgh for instance?


You can't call plays that you know your QB has a very low chance of accomplishing. Why would they WANT Tebow to throw more often? They didn't. The NE game as a perfect example...we were down by 14, then by 7...and the coaches HAD to stick with what they knew........ keep Tebow from throwing, stick to the ground game, and hope for some turnovers. Play the field position game as best we can, and protect Tebow from throwing.

So you think 3rd and long QB draws are high percentage plays? It's simple why you'd want Tebow to throw more often; To balance a run attack and to get your QB to develop a rythm and chemistry with recievers. Being scared to throw after a 1-4 start seems a bit silly to me, but what do I know.

I'm not saying McCoy sucks and all his playcalling was bad, but I'll take issue with giving it all the credit as well.


I think the way the coaches developed a system that protected Tim from throwing is what saved this season, and that IS the playcalling.

To some degree, I agree with you. But there were other times that being ultra conservative hurt more than it helped. Our 3rd down conversion percentage was one of the things that greatly suffered under this predictable model.

arapaho2
01-24-2012, 01:09 PM
The playcalling was NOT the problem. The playcalling was what made Tebow have ANY success at all. The playcalling SAVED Tebow from having to throw the ball.

People kept saying that "practices didn't matter"....yet it was shown time and time and time and time again WHY the coaches didn't believe in Tebow's throwing from what they saw in practice. So they coached around it.

Now, when the games relied on Tebow to throw the ball, he failed MISERABLY... and people want to blame the playcalling.

You can't call plays that you know your QB has a very low chance of accomplishing. Why would they WANT Tebow to throw more often? They didn't. The NE game as a perfect example...we were down by 14, then by 7...and the coaches HAD to stick with what they knew........ keep Tebow from throwing, stick to the ground game, and hope for some turnovers. Play the field position game as best we can, and protect Tebow from throwing.

I think the way the coaches developed a system that protected Tim from throwing is what saved this season, and that IS the playcalling.

bs rav

the play calling was anemic and uttlery predictable...until the forth qrt

when you run on first down 95% of the time...thats predictable...when you run on 1st, 2nd and then have to pass on 3rd thats any opposing defense best case scenario

tebow had his best qb% in the 4rth qrtrs...thats the qrt he passed the most and had the most success

when you thrown only 37 passes in the 1st qrt all season....and 117 in the forth

then tebow only attempted 15 PASSES when ahead .
he threw 213 when trailing!!!!

no matter how you cut it...the offensive scheme was patheticly predictaBLE

the OC has to put him in better situations then the current pass when behind and in the forth qrt...when every defense knows you have to

claymore
01-24-2012, 01:27 PM
bs rav

the play calling was anemic and uttlery predictable...until the forth qrt

when you run on first down 95% of the time...thats predictable...when you run on 1st, 2nd and then have to pass on 3rd thats any opposing defense best case scenario

tebow had his best qb% in the 4rth qrtrs...thats the qrt he passed the most and had the most success

when you thrown only 37 passes in the 1st qrt all season....and 117 in the forth

then tebow only attempted 15 PASSES when ahead .
he threw 213 when trailing!!!!

no matter how you cut it...the offensive scheme was patheticly predictaBLE

the OC has to put him in better situations then the current pass when behind and in the forth qrt...when every defense knows you have to

Tebow had 112 attempts in the first half, and 198 in the second. His completion percentage in the first half was 42% and 47% in the 2nd.

I think they played the odds and tried to set a inconsistent young QB up for success and not put him in third and long situations every series.

arapaho2
01-24-2012, 01:57 PM
Tebow had 112 attempts in the first half, and 198 in the second. His completion percentage in the first half was 42% and 47% in the 2nd.

I think they played the odds and tried to set a inconsistent young QB up for success and not put him in third and long situations every series.


according to espn stats

tebow had 37 1st qrter passes...91 total 1st half passes

117 4th qrt passes...180 2nd half including 7 in OT

on his 1st down attempts...most in the second half

he had 6 tds..2ints and a 86.3qr%


any body who truely watched these games knows we ran the ball ran the ball, ran the ball...then turned tim loose when trailing late in games

that was predictable...many analysts have stated the same thing alrready...mccoy needed to mix it up...his playcalling was predictable

just as any expert will attest...its much harder to pass when teams know you have to

all im saying is an occasional short high % PASS ON FIRST DOWN, early in the games...like a wr screen, a rb screen, a quick slant or out would have went along way in not only keeping a defense honest but getting tim going

when defenses can pretty much predict when your gonna run and when your gonna pass...it makes running any offense much harder

cmc0605
01-24-2012, 04:20 PM
It's really tough to defend the playcalling. There were a few bright spots that displayed awareness as to what the other teams were doing- for example, calling the double move by Daniel Fells in the Pittsburgh game, when Troy Polamalu had a history of over-committing to the crossing routes- that was good film study and game prep. For a large chunk of the season however, we were out-coached.

You can blame the vanilla offense on Tebow's abilities, but Tebow was not so bad as to disallow screen passes to RBs, quick WR screens, shorter crossing/out patterns, etc. The fact is that we need to do a much better job strategically mixing in screens, bootlegs, dump passes, and the like. The option does wonders because it throws teams off their heals, makes them a bit hesitant to pursue, but it can't be the only thing you do. And you also need to mix up first down plays, as well as have something for 3rd and longs aside from QB draws. You also need to do this to get defenses off-balance as well as get QBs into a rhythm.

I don't really see much point in arguing all this since it's self-evident to anyone who watches football or the teams like the Packers, Giants, Pats, etc who have success.

If Tebow can't execute those types of plays, he shouldn't be the QB. But I think he can execute them, maybe never at the elite level, but certainly much better than he was given the opportunity to.

claymore
01-24-2012, 07:12 PM
according to espn stats

tebow had 37 1st qrter passes...91 total 1st half passes

117 4th qrt passes...180 2nd half including 7 in OT

on his 1st down attempts...most in the second half

he had 6 tds..2ints and a 86.3qr%


any body who truely watched these games knows we ran the ball ran the ball, ran the ball...then turned tim loose when trailing late in games

that was predictable...many analysts have stated the same thing alrready...mccoy needed to mix it up...his playcalling was predictable

just as any expert will attest...its much harder to pass when teams know you have to

all im saying is an occasional short high % PASS ON FIRST DOWN, early in the games...like a wr screen, a rb screen, a quick slant or out would have went along way in not only keeping a defense honest but getting tim going

when defenses can pretty much predict when your gonna run and when your gonna pass...it makes running any offense much harder

The way I saw the games... We tried to keep it as close as possible in the first half, then in the second we would adjust, or change our offense completley so the D couldnt adjust to it.

We looked completley different in the 2nd half. Thats why we won games. Unlike most, I credit the coaches with making lemonade out of turds or whateve.r

Ravage!!!
01-24-2012, 07:21 PM
It was the playcalling that kept Tebow from continuing to put us in the hole. Stay with the running game, let the defense hold the score close, DON'T turn over the ball, let our outstanding punter kick when we had to, and play the field position game. Throw ONLY when necessary, and DON'T throw often.

The playcalling was predictable because TEBOW was very very VERY limited. Lets be honest, the coaches knew Tebow was extremely limited before making him the starter, which is WHY it took Orton to completely fail in order to make him the starter. Tebow's throwing absolutely, 100%, LIMITS the play book and the playcalling. The coaches can only work with what they have, and believe me when I say.... THEY absolutely know more about what his limitations are than those defending.

We kept hearing that the coaches were "exaggerating" how bad of a thrower Tebow was, and they just "wanted to keep him down"...... well, he PROVED that the reports were right. I laugh at those trying to hold onto the Minnesota and Pitt game because lets be honest, the defenses on those days were letting WRs run completely free. Tebow wasn't fitting balls into tight windows or making tough 3rd down throws. "Who cares about practice" is all I kept hearing. Strange, because if that were the case, I don't think people like Brees, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers would be such hard workers IN practice. They know practice matters. Only those that want to believe that Tebow is better in games, want to ignore that fact.

The playcalling is TOTALLY limited.. you bet it is...but its not because McCoy was the problem. McCoy and Fox saved Tebow. If we didn't have the VERY lucky breaks that we did early on, it would have been much much worse.

Orton was 6 games in a row because of the defensive play. Its pretty easy to see that we did the same this year with a different QB.

Tebow is very limited in his throwing, and the playcalling shadowed that problem.

Day1BroncoFan
01-24-2012, 07:23 PM
I haven't read the whole thread yet but I'd say improved passing and wins that don't need 4rth quarter comebacks or OT.

BORDERLINE
01-24-2012, 07:35 PM
Would we say Orton's passing numbers last year was what a good QB would put up?

I'm sorry I just don't analyze completion percentage all that much. Orton had way better numbers i'm sure but not many W's in the left column. Isn't that what we all want. WINS. Now i'm not saying Tebow is good the way he is. NO HE needs to learn how to put it all together to the point of making those throws on a consistent basis. What I don't believe helps him is the constant criticism every game good or bad. He deserves a season or two to get where he needs to be.

NightTerror218
01-24-2012, 07:39 PM
It was the playcalling that kept Tebow from continuing to put us in the hole. Stay with the running game, let the defense hold the score close, DON'T turn over the ball, let our outstanding punter kick when we had to, and play the field position game. Throw ONLY when necessary, and DON'T throw often.

The playcalling was predictable because TEBOW was very very VERY limited. Lets be honest, the coaches knew Tebow was extremely limited before making him the starter, which is WHY it took Orton to completely fail in order to make him the starter. Tebow's throwing absolutely, 100%, LIMITS the play book and the playcalling. The coaches can only work with what they have, and believe me when I say.... THEY absolutely know more about what his limitations are than those defending.

We kept hearing that the coaches were "exaggerating" how bad of a thrower Tebow was, and they just "wanted to keep him down"...... well, he PROVED that the reports were right. I laugh at those trying to hold onto the Minnesota and Pitt game because lets be honest, the defenses on those days were letting WRs run completely free. Tebow wasn't fitting balls into tight windows or making tough 3rd down throws.

The playcalling is TOTALLY limited.. you bet it is...but its not because McCoy was the problem. McCoy and Fox saved Tebow. If we didn't have the VERY lucky breaks that we did early on, it would have been much much worse.

Orton was 6 games in a row because of the defensive play. Its pretty easy to see that we did the same.

Tebow is very limited in his throwing, and the playcalling shadowed that problem.

he had just as many good passing games as crappy passing games. Minn, Pitt, NE, Chi and his bad, KC, Buff, NE(2) and the beginning of Detroit, Miami.

Offense all around sucks. And normally when that happens the OC is fired. I dont care if McCoy tried to play is safe calling running to over compensate for Tebows throwing issues he is a YOUNG who needs to make mistakes to learn from. Having said that he better improve drastically in 2012 since he now has a season under belt and going into third season he should be seasoned enough to be a solid passer (not great). Still some of the plays/blocking assignments blew my mind and were not helping at all.

IMO 50% blame on Tebow, 50% on WR and 40% McCoy. WR are young and made some glaring drops in big games (Chicago). Tebows execution speaks for itself with progressions, reads and holding onto ball too long. McCoy holding back and then letting him loose and running spread/hurry up in 4th quarter where he plays best (coincidence, I know some teams were in prevent, their **** up if they lost). Too many times did I see max protection on 3rd and long with (2) TEs or (1)TE&(1)RB blocking and not going to a check down. Which limits options for Tebow and takes away and one on one a WR could get. Rarely seeing any TE running routes killed me too. I would put more blame on Tebow except play calling became so predictable that McCoy should have mixed it better like on first down. Also changes were not made to any game plan until half time according to Fox because he was not sure how teams would defend them.

I expect McCoy to get a new playbook that is not an option offense but might be more spread friendly but still run heavy. I want it to be more of an NFL offense and if Tebow can not run it, then it shows that he is not the guy for us and maybe he can back up Newton or Vick. Tebow is going into his first off season that he can actually focus 100% on his passing and footwork and what ever other mechanics he needs too. I know during the season he gets work, but he is also spending a lot of time review film and preparing for the next game. This is the make it or break it time for Tebow.

silkamilkamonico
01-24-2012, 07:53 PM
he had just as many good passing games as crappy passing games. Minn, Pitt, NE, Chi and his bad, KC, Buff, NE(2) and the beginning of Detroit, Miami.

You can try and argue stats all you want, but the fact of the matter is Chicago was not in any way a good passing game. It was a terrible passing game with 2 good series, and that's it. I would go one step further and throw that game in with the bad passing game, which far outweigh the good btw.

I choose to look at the objective.

+

Tebow was very good this year in pressure situations. Exceptional. And because he is good at the end of games when the defense has strayed from how they game planned against Tebow ( which is very revealing IMO ) Denver finished with a playoff birth. If the defense doesn't stray and remains honest to how they gameplanned, do we win those games?

-

Denver was literally 5 series, and probably 7-10 extremely lucky and circumstantial plays, of finishing 3-13, and Tebow being the absolute worst starting QB in the NFL.

MOtorboat
01-24-2012, 07:54 PM
It just amazes me how much denial people are in.

Tebow cannot operate the NFL spread. He does not throw it consistently enough to do it. He does not have good enough foot work to do it. He does not trust his reads enough to do it consistently. He does not throw it into windows consistently.

You must be able to do all of these things to successfully run the spread.

As an OC, if you're quarterback has less than a 1 in 2 chance of completing a pass, you call a run until you HAVE to pass. McCoy played percentages like smart coaches do and the percentages said run the ball.

bcbronc
01-24-2012, 07:55 PM
For me, there's no stat that will make Tebow a successful starter in my eyes. Comp%, TD%, even Wins won't be enough on their own. It's really going to come down to the eye test.

I'll be making my judgement on Tebow as a starter on whether or not he is hitting open receivers almost every opportunity, whether he's quickly finding his second third fourth receiving options, and whether he can make 3rd down throws into tight windows game-in game-out.

I don't care if he completes 52% of his passes, or 62% (probably does need to get over 50 though). I don't care if he passes for 2800 yards, or 4800. What I do care about is whether he makes strides in what I consider NFL QBing essentials listed above.

NightTerror218
01-24-2012, 07:55 PM
You can try and argue stats all you want, but the fact of the matter is Chicago was not in any way a good passing game. It was a terrible passing game with 2 good series, and that's it. I would go one step further and throw that game in with the bad passing game, which far outweigh the good btw.

I choose to look at the objective.

+

Tebow was very good this year in pressure situations. Exceptional. And because he is good at the end of games when the defense has strayed from how they game planned against Tebow ( which is very revealing IMO ) Denver finished with a playoff birth. If the defense doesn't stray and remains honest to how they gameplanned, do we win those games?

-

Denver was literally 5 series, and probably 7-10 extremely lucky and circumstantial plays, of finishing 3-13, and Tebow being the absolute worst starting QB in the NFL.

Tebows stats were alright for Chicago game but he played well for having 6 drops. He passes were on and hitting the hands of WR. Not his fault.

arapaho2
01-24-2012, 08:03 PM
It was the playcalling that kept Tebow from continuing to put us in the hole. Stay with the running game, let the defense hold the score close, DON'T turn over the ball, let our outstanding punter kick when we had to, and play the field position game. Throw ONLY when necessary, and DON'T throw often.

The playcalling was predictable because TEBOW was very very VERY limited. Lets be honest, the coaches knew Tebow was extremely limited before making him the starter, which is WHY it took Orton to completely fail in order to make him the starter. Tebow's throwing absolutely, 100%, LIMITS the play book and the playcalling. The coaches can only work with what they have, and believe me when I say.... THEY absolutely know more about what his limitations are than those defending.

We kept hearing that the coaches were "exaggerating" how bad of a thrower Tebow was, and they just "wanted to keep him down"...... well, he PROVED that the reports were right. I laugh at those trying to hold onto the Minnesota and Pitt game because lets be honest, the defenses on those days were letting WRs run completely free. Tebow wasn't fitting balls into tight windows or making tough 3rd down throws. "Who cares about practice" is all I kept hearing. Strange, because if that were the case, I don't think people like Brees, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers would be such hard workers IN practice. They know practice matters. Only those that want to believe that Tebow is better in games, want to ignore that fact.

The playcalling is TOTALLY limited.. you bet it is...but its not because McCoy was the problem. McCoy and Fox saved Tebow. If we didn't have the VERY lucky breaks that we did early on, it would have been much much worse.

Orton was 6 games in a row because of the defensive play. Its pretty easy to see that we did the same this year with a different QB.

Tebow is very limited in his throwing, and the playcalling shadowed that problem.


the defense allowed a mere 11 points in ortons first 6 wins

in tebows eight first starts this year the defense allowed 20 points per game...17 in his six game win streak....16.7 in his 7 wins

in nfl standards thats a huge differance in defensive strength

silkamilkamonico
01-24-2012, 08:30 PM
Tebows stats were alright for Chicago game but he played well for having 6 drops. He passes were on and hitting the hands of WR. Not his fault.

Alright? Tebow was 8 for 24 with 4:30 minutes of the game. That is absolutely brutal.

I don't buy the dropped passes argument. If you are going to count dropped passes, can I count all the times Tebow completely missed a wide open WR, or didn't even bother noticing the guy running the short middle route without a defender 10-15 yards around him? Because those far outnumber is recievers drops.

NightTerror218
01-24-2012, 08:34 PM
Alright? Tebow was 8 for 24 with 4:30 minutes of the game. That is absolutely brutal.

I don't buy the dropped passes argument. If you are going to count dropped passes, can I count all the times Tebow completely missed a wide open WR, or didn't even bother noticing the guy running the short middle route without a defender 10-15 yards around him? Because those far outnumber is recievers drops.

They may out number, but not that game. That game had outrageous drops until the end of the game. Tebow improved in the completely missing the WR he was throwing out. But not seeing the open WR because of lack of progressions is a huge problem that must be fixed or he wont last.

wayninja
01-24-2012, 08:36 PM
Tebow sucks. We should have kept Orton, then we could have really opened the playbook up, since he is a capable QB who can make the throws necessary.

Minnesota and Pittsburgh don't count because they don't help support my argument. Also, Tebow can't hit open receivers.

McCoy didn't call passes because Tebow is incapable of passing. He only passed because he ignored the plays that were called. And even then it usually was a stray, localized gust of wind or wormhole that allowed the ball to get to the reciever.

Having 2 recievers in the bottom 15 for dropped passes this year and 0 in the top 15 was because Tebow doesn't impart the proper rotational intertia to his passes causing people who catch professionially for a living overcompensate trying to dampen a rotational force that is not present and over-torque causing the ball to counterspin out of their hands.

Also, Tebows ground game is irrelevant because any RB can do that.

Finally, some of the games that we won don't really count because we should have lost. If the other team played perfectly and not made any mistakes, we would have lost.

Let's face it, Tebow contributed nothing and was the sole liability on the team. We won the division in spite of him.

Ravage!!!
01-24-2012, 11:22 PM
the defense allowed a mere 11 points in ortons first 6 wins

in tebows eight first starts this year the defense allowed 20 points per game...17 in his six game win streak....16.7 in his 7 wins

in nfl standards thats a huge differance in defensive strength

I'm sorry. But EVERY FAN base, in every city, for EVERY team... tries to blame the "play calling" when their team loses. Its weak, VERY weak.

The coaches spend EVERY day working with the offense, the talent, the players, while seeing how they perform on the field and what they do well and what they don't.

They spend 60+hours a week studying the other team, coming up with trends for situations. They know more about the offense, what they are doing, and what the OTHER team is doing than anyone here would even guess.... yet when we see a play that didn't work....we say "Ah hell, I would have called a screen!!!" as if that would be the magic answer (without even knowing the result). EVERY fan thinks they could have called a better play, a better series, a better choice...... why? Because its VERY VERY easy to guess on something that could never be proved or disproved.

I just find it to be completely ridiculous when I hear the same complaints about playcalling that everyone uses. If its not the playcalling, its someone complaining about the "drops." IF its not the drops, its someone complaining about the talent. If its not the talent, its someone complaining about the OL not giving Tebow more than 12 seconds to find an open receiver. If its not the OL, its back to the playcalling.

You can count Minnesota and Pitt allllll you want to if it makes you guys feel better. It's your right and more power to you. But its pretty easy to see what those games were. The Pittsburgh game is just ridiculous on so many different levels that I find it funny that people want to use that as some kind of indicator.

But those first few games were sure fun to watch.

Ravage!!!
01-24-2012, 11:24 PM
Alright? Tebow was 8 for 24 with 4:30 minutes of the game. That is absolutely brutal.

I don't buy the dropped passes argument. If you are going to count dropped passes, can I count all the times Tebow completely missed a wide open WR, or didn't even bother noticing the guy running the short middle route without a defender 10-15 yards around him? Because those far outnumber is recievers drops.

Not to mention the Chicago defense dropped back into prevent with safeties lining up 20+ yrds deep ... pre-snap.

BORDERLINE
01-24-2012, 11:29 PM
Not to mention the Chicago defense dropped back into prevent with safeties lining up 20+ yrds deep ... pre-snap.

why did they do that?

ALL that 60 hour studying playcalls and sh** like that i'm sure contributed to the Bears defense playing prevent right?

wayninja
01-25-2012, 12:07 AM
I just find it to be completely ridiculous when I hear the same complaints about playcalling that everyone uses. If its not the playcalling, its someone complaining about the "drops." IF its not the drops, its someone complaining about the talent. If its not the talent, its someone complaining about the OL not giving Tebow more than 12 seconds to find an open receiver. If its not the OL, its back to the playcalling.

Or it's Tebow. Yep, now we have all the bases covered and it's got to be one of, or a combination of these things. So, is it Tebow everytime or is it some combination of all the above?


You can count Minnesota and Pitt allllll you want to if it makes you guys feel better. It's your right and more power to you. But its pretty easy to see what those games were. The Pittsburgh game is just ridiculous on so many different levels that I find it funny that people want to use that as some kind of indicator.

Since winning makes me feel better, I'll go ahead and count them. You can discount wins if you want... not sure what that says about you though.

What your argument basically boils down to, is that if Tebow has a good game, it's because of some ridiculous set of circumstances. If he does mediocre and we win, it's because he sucks and we got lucky, and when he loses, it's SEE! IS TEH SUXXXSORSSS!!. Gotcha. That doesn't seem partial at all.

What exactly was 'ridiculous' exactly about the pittsburgh game, anyway? Please explain level by level.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 12:08 AM
Not to mention the Chicago defense dropped back into prevent with safeties lining up 20+ yrds deep ... pre-snap.

Weren't you just complaining about how weak blaming the playcalling is?

Ironic.

BORDERLINE
01-25-2012, 12:16 AM
wayninja, what has gotten into you lately.

your kicking azz and taking names

wayninja
01-25-2012, 12:27 AM
wayninja, what has gotten into you lately.

your kicking azz and taking names

I promised I would work harder this offseason.

bcbronc
01-25-2012, 12:29 AM
wayninja, what has gotten into you lately.

your kicking azz and taking names

nah, (s)he just talks in circles to muddy the waters and avoid the points that are inconvenient to his/her position. Way's good at that though, and fun to read/exchange with.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 12:31 AM
nah, (s)he just talks in circles to muddy the waters and avoid the points that are inconvenient to his/her position. Way's good at that though, and fun to read/exchange with.

Whatever works. If there is one thing I learned on this board is that facts are only slightly more useful than the casino.

bcbronc
01-25-2012, 12:36 AM
Whatever works. If there is one thing I learned on this board is that facts are only slightly more useful than the casino.

yup, if you can't convince them with facts dazzle them with bullshit. Motto of Internet forums everywhere.

arapaho2
01-25-2012, 01:30 AM
I'm sorry. But EVERY FAN base, in every city, for EVERY team... tries to blame the "play calling" when their team loses. Its weak, VERY weak.

The coaches spend EVERY day working with the offense, the talent, the players, while seeing how they perform on the field and what they do well and what they don't.

They spend 60+hours a week studying the other team, coming up with trends for situations. They know more about the offense, what they are doing, and what the OTHER team is doing than anyone here would even guess.... yet when we see a play that didn't work....we say "Ah hell, I would have called a screen!!!" as if that would be the magic answer (without even knowing the result). EVERY fan thinks they could have called a better play, a better series, a better choice...... why? Because its VERY VERY easy to guess on something that could never be proved or disproved.

I just find it to be completely ridiculous when I hear the same complaints about playcalling that everyone uses. If its not the playcalling, its someone complaining about the "drops." IF its not the drops, its someone complaining about the talent. If its not the talent, its someone complaining about the OL not giving Tebow more than 12 seconds to find an open receiver. If its not the OL, its back to the playcalling.

You can count Minnesota and Pitt allllll you want to if it makes you guys feel better. It's your right and more power to you. But its pretty easy to see what those games were. The Pittsburgh game is just ridiculous on so many different levels that I find it funny that people want to use that as some kind of indicator.

But those first few games were sure fun to watch.


whats that got to do with the fact your wrong on the defense..which is what you quoted

every fan has a number of excuses that however does not excuse the fact our offensive playcalling was in fact predictable

but let me see if i can understand your point

heres my point first

tebow was a projected 3 yr project at best...he went a whole season just about in 2010 where it was reported by our VP john elway that tim did not recieve any of the first team snaps in practise...he came in and did a great job as a rookie

he then entered camp as supposedly the third or forth string qb takeing his snaps with the guys who would more an likely not make the team

after orton showed his stuff...tebow became the starter and imediatly the best wr the broncos have is traded
now we get to our games...where surprisenly we start to win...in the end of games where tebow is allowed to pass from a spread formation and we win 7 of eleven games

the majority of his pass attempts are late in games...the overwhelming majority of his attempts on first down are late in games..the oc insists on a play selection that consists of...rb up the gut...qb read option, right, qb read option left...punt if needed...with only an occasional pass on 2nd or 3rd and medium to long....with no crosses, no rb screens, no tes chipping and releasing, no slants most 2 - 3 wr routes all run deep...nothing to keep a defense honest, vanilla routes....given the fact its widely known and excepted that the best way to get a qb confindent and in the groove is quick hits ....we rarely attempt any...UNTIL LATE IN GAMES

in short....a defense that knows just about when your gonna pass, and when your gonna run...is predictable and in fact a predictable passing offense....is very hard to complete a pass ...specially if you dont utilize quick wr screens, rb screens, slants when you do pass


now what i see of your point is...tebow cant pass..any completion was a stroke of luck....teams we beat was because of our great defense...games where tebow passed well were because of the defense just allowing tebow too, somehow thinking if he completes a multitude of passes it increases their chance of winning....rarely passing on 1st down was NOT predictable and great seeing as how tebow couldnt hit the side of a barn if even if by rare chance we ran a wr screen or utilized the TE

and even though he was never taught to be a pocket passer in HS or college...and didnt have the chance to work with the coaches this spring and summer to correct his mechanical issues ...he should imediatly be one of the greates passers ever seen....or he sucks


that about sum it up?
.

bcbronc
01-25-2012, 02:09 AM
the majority of his pass attempts are late in games...the overwhelming majority of his attempts on first down are late in games..the oc insists on a play selection that consists of...rb up the gut...qb read option, right, qb read option left...punt if needed...with only an occasional pass on 2nd or 3rd and medium to long....with no crosses, no rb screens, no tes chipping and releasing, no slants most 2 - 3 wr routes all run deep...nothing to keep a defense honest, vanilla routes....given the fact its widely known and excepted that the best way to get a qb confindent and in the groove is quick hits ....we rarely attempt any...UNTIL LATE IN GAMES

.

You can't just ignore Tebow's share of why our offense looked like this though. It's fair criticism to say the WRs struggled, the coach didn't necessarily draw up the most creative passing attack, young OL, etc etc. But Tebow's shortcomings as an NFL passer played at least as big a roll in the look of the offense as all those combined. He's the quarterback, it's just a fact.

What Tebow can and can't do dictates what the Denver Broncos offense can and can't do.

That's not a controversial statement. If you remove Tebow from the discussion, everyone not new to the game understands that. It's only when it's Tebow that blame needs to be redirected as widely as possible.

You want to run screens, but when a defense's objective isn't to pressure the QB, but to keep him the pocket, screens don't work. Last one I remember we tried was vs BUF and Tebow got sacked.

You want to run more crossing routes...we ran one on 3rd down during our 2min offense vs PIT, Tebow bounced it 5 yards short.

You want to run more slants, but Tebow has inconsistent footwork and a long wind-up vs LBs in spy, a young OL that can't keep DL's hands down, and a WR core that has struggled at times especially getting off the line.

The reason there's so many long throws is threefold: easiest read and lowest risk, defenses putting safeties in the box, and Tebow's unwillingness to hit checkdowns. The coaches recognized Tebow's strengths and weaknesses, and put together a gameplan to protect the team from the bad early so the good would have a chance to make a difference late.

Either 2nd or 3rd series vs NE, score was 7-0, 1st down run was 3-4 yards, tried to pass on 2nd down. Sack, strip, game.

claymore
01-25-2012, 07:50 AM
It was the playcalling that kept Tebow from continuing to put us in the hole. Stay with the running game, let the defense hold the score close, DON'T turn over the ball, let our outstanding punter kick when we had to, and play the field position game. Throw ONLY when necessary, and DON'T throw often.

The playcalling was predictable because TEBOW was very very VERY limited. Lets be honest, the coaches knew Tebow was extremely limited before making him the starter, which is WHY it took Orton to completely fail in order to make him the starter. Tebow's throwing absolutely, 100%, LIMITS the play book and the playcalling. The coaches can only work with what they have, and believe me when I say.... THEY absolutely know more about what his limitations are than those defending.

We kept hearing that the coaches were "exaggerating" how bad of a thrower Tebow was, and they just "wanted to keep him down"...... well, he PROVED that the reports were right. I laugh at those trying to hold onto the Minnesota and Pitt game because lets be honest, the defenses on those days were letting WRs run completely free. Tebow wasn't fitting balls into tight windows or making tough 3rd down throws. "Who cares about practice" is all I kept hearing. Strange, because if that were the case, I don't think people like Brees, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers would be such hard workers IN practice. They know practice matters. Only those that want to believe that Tebow is better in games, want to ignore that fact.

The playcalling is TOTALLY limited.. you bet it is...but its not because McCoy was the problem. McCoy and Fox saved Tebow. If we didn't have the VERY lucky breaks that we did early on, it would have been much much worse.

Orton was 6 games in a row because of the defensive play. Its pretty easy to see that we did the same this year with a different QB.

Tebow is very limited in his throwing, and the playcalling shadowed that problem.
GREAT post. You articulated my feelings 100%.

Would we say Orton's passing numbers last year was what a good QB would put up?

I'm sorry I just don't analyze completion percentage all that much. Orton had way better numbers i'm sure but not many W's in the left column. Isn't that what we all want. WINS. Now i'm not saying Tebow is good the way he is. NO HE needs to learn how to put it all together to the point of making those throws on a consistent basis. What I don't believe helps him is the constant criticism every game good or bad. He deserves a season or two to get where he needs to be.I still think Ortons numbers are terrible. His 3rd down % was absolutley horrendous.

Accuracy, 3rd down % and TD to INT rate are whats important to me. I dont care if orton had 4500 yards and 6 tds.

claymore
01-25-2012, 07:55 AM
Tebow sucks. We should have kept Orton, then we could have really opened the playbook up, since he is a capable QB who can make the throws necessary.

Minnesota and Pittsburgh don't count because they don't help support my argument. Also, Tebow can't hit open receivers.

McCoy didn't call passes because Tebow is incapable of passing. He only passed because he ignored the plays that were called. And even then it usually was a stray, localized gust of wind or wormhole that allowed the ball to get to the reciever.

Having 2 recievers in the bottom 15 for dropped passes this year and 0 in the top 15 was because Tebow doesn't impart the proper rotational intertia to his passes causing people who catch professionially for a living overcompensate trying to dampen a rotational force that is not present and over-torque causing the ball to counterspin out of their hands.

Also, Tebows ground game is irrelevant because any RB can do that.

Finally, some of the games that we won don't really count because we should have lost. If the other team played perfectly and not made any mistakes, we would have lost.

Let's face it, Tebow contributed nothing and was the sole liability on the team. We won the division in spite of him.

This!

HammeredOut
01-25-2012, 09:46 AM
Well, John Elway used Tebow last year to finish out the Season so we could draft Andrew Luck. What Elway didn't invision was Tebow winning us 7 games by Tebow averaging 14 points a game, and our defense playing shut out.

Next year, with our DC, and Tebow starting we should be back to a top 5 pick with Tebow starting all season. The 30 points a game the defense was giving up the previous 2 seasons was all Kyle Ortons fault according to the fans, which provided a good scape goat for our losses. The odd thing, is when our defense only gave up 10 points a game and our offense only put up 14 points a game, Tim Tebow gets all the credit. lol..

wayninja
01-25-2012, 10:55 AM
The odd thing, is when our defense only gave up 10 points a game and our offense only put up 14 points a game, Tim Tebow gets all the credit. lol..

The only odd thing about it, is how the education system failed to train you in simple arithmetic.

We averaged 18.5 points per game in the regular season with Tebow starting. 18.7 if you include post-season.

The defense gave up an average of 22 points per game in regular season with Tebow starting and 24.5 points per game if you include the post season.

But hey, don't let math get in the way of your argument or anything.

HammeredOut
01-25-2012, 11:36 AM
The only odd thing about it, is how the education system failed to train you in simple arithmetic.

We averaged 18.5 points per game in the regular season with Tebow starting. 18.7 if you include post-season.

The defense gave up an average of 22 points per game in regular season with Tebow starting and 24.5 points per game if you include the post season.

But hey, don't let math get in the way of your argument or anything.

O.k, so I was off by 3 or 4 points.

Tebow wins.

18 points, 48% completion percentage, 13 Completions, defense gives up 15 points....

17 points, 25% completion percentage, 2 completions, defense gives up 10 points....

17 Points, 45% completion percentage, 9 completions, defense gives up 13 points..

13 points, 52% CP, 21 completions, defense gives up 10 points.

16 points, 50% CP, 9 completions, defense gives up 13 points.



In 5 out of 7 of Tim Tebows wins in the regular season, the Defense only gave up 12.2 points a game, While Tebow only averaged 16 points, 10 Completions a game or 2.25 completions per quarter, over that span of winning, moreover, he Tebow only had a 44% completion percentage during this winning span.

Tebow was ranked last in every statistical category for a QB. He had like a 23 percent 3rd down converstion percentage, and only averaged 123 yards in the air. Tebow was a sack machine, he couldn't read defenses, and looked like peg leg out on the field when he "Thought" about passing the ball. The 33 Sacks he took this year compared to the amount of Pass Attempts he had. Tebow was a bad decision maker aswell, if Tebow took as many Pass Attempts as Aaron Rodgers, Tebow would have been on pace for about 82 sacks this season. Which would also be an NFL record.

If Tebow improves and looks like a QB, and not a RB. He would need to start passing the ball better then he has shown. Sports people have been saying that 400 yards is the 300 yards in the air, so with that being said, Tim Tebow who put up 300+ yards on Pittsburgh could be looked at as Tim being our 200 yard guy.

All in All, we should ride the Tim Tebow train, so we can draft a QB in next years draft. I have all but written off this next season, unless we become a complete spread run option team, and draft like it. I know in my seasons predictions before the season started, I had us at between a 6-8 win team this year, I just didn't think 8 wins would get us into the playoffs.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 11:48 AM
O.k, so I was off by 3 or 4 points.

Tebow wins.

18 points, 48% completion percentage, 13 Completions, defense gives up 15 points....

17 points, 25% completion percentage, 2 completions, defense gives up 10 points....

17 Points, 45% completion percentage, 9 completions, defense gives up 13 points..

13 points, 52% CP, 21 completions, defense gives up 10 points.

16 points, 50% CP, 9 completions, defense gives up 13 points.



In 5 out of 7 of Tim Tebows wins in the regular season, the Defense only gave up 12.2 points a game, While Tebow only averaged 16 points, 10 Completions a game or 2.25 completions per quarter, over that span of winning, moreover, he Tebow only had a 44% completion percentage during this winning span.

Tebow was ranked last in every statistical category for a QB. He had like a 23 percent 3rd down converstion percentage, and only averaged 123 yards in the air. Tebow was a sack machine, he couldn't read defenses, and looked like peg leg out on the field when he "Thought" about passing the ball. The 33 Sacks he took this year compared to the amount of Pass Attempts he had. Tebow was a bad decision maker aswell, if Tebow took as many Pass Attempts as Aaron Rodgers, Tebow would have been on pace for about 82 sacks this season. Which would also be an NFL record.

If Tebow improves and looks like a QB, and not a RB. He would need to start passing the ball better then he has shown. Sports people have been saying that 400 yards is the 300 yards in the air, so with that being said, Tim Tebow who put up 300+ yards on Pittsburgh could be looked at as Tim being our 200 yard guy.

All in All, we should ride the Tim Tebow train, so we can draft a QB in next years draft. I have all but written off this next season, unless we become a complete spread run option team, and draft like it. I know in my seasons predictions before the season started, I had us at between a 6-8 win team this year, I just didn't think 8 wins would get us into the playoffs.

This is the mother of all cherry picking.

Let's set a few things straight.

1. Yeah, you were only off by 3 or 4 points. Put another way, you were off by over 25%.

2. Why do 2 of the 7 regular season wins not count? They are a significant percentage of the wins.

3. Tebow was second in rushing this year for a QB.

4. He was NOT last in every statistical category for a QB, that's more absurd than your initial fabrication of averages.

I don't disagree in the slightest that Tebow needs to improve, but I find it ridiculous to what lengths people will go to in order to make him look worse than he is. He doesn't really need much help looking like a QB who needs a lot of work.

But to ignore everything good that he did is just as annoying as folks who want to ignore everything bad.

As for your desire to 'ride the tebow train' in order to lose next year and get a good draft position. That just sickens me. Go be a detroit fan.

Ravage!!!
01-25-2012, 12:27 PM
Weren't you just complaining about how weak blaming the playcalling is?

Ironic.

What does play calling have to do with my statement? Your assumptions and predictions/guesses on playcalls are nothing but speculation and dreams. Chicago dropping safeties 20yrds back pre-snap is a fact. The "we should throw more crossing routes" is about as elementary as "we should throw on first down." There is no substance to either.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 12:39 PM
What does play calling have to do with my statement? Your assumptions and predictions/guesses on playcalls are nothing but speculation and dreams. Chicago dropping safeties 20yrds back pre-snap is a fact. The "we should throw more crossing routes" is about as elementary as "we should throw on first down." There is no substance to either.

Yes, it's a fact. Are you saying they (Chicago) shouldn't have done so (dropped their safeties back) or just pointing out what happened?

It's also a fact that we didn't call a pass play on 1st down over 95% of the time. That's not blaming play calling, right? It's just a fact...

catfish
01-25-2012, 03:23 PM
Yes, it's a fact. Are you saying they (Chicago) shouldn't have done so (dropped their safeties back) or just pointing out what happened?

It's also a fact that we didn't call a pass play on 1st down over 95% of the time. That's not blaming play calling, right? It's just a fact...

Here is a question. Elway has stated that Tebow is the starter going into the offseason, what happens if Tebow loses the starting spot to whatever backup they bring in during camp? Does the circus start up again if they start out 1-4?

NightTerror218
01-25-2012, 03:27 PM
Here is a question. Elway has stated that Tebow is the starter going into the offseason, what happens if Tebow loses the starting spot to whatever backup they bring in during camp? Does the circus start up again if they start out 1-4?

At this point they have to let him beat himself on the field. He need to fail on the field and not in practice.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 03:34 PM
Here is a question. Elway has stated that Tebow is the starter going into the offseason, what happens if Tebow loses the starting spot to whatever backup they bring in during camp? Does the circus start up again if they start out 1-4?

I guess it depends on how pretty the passes look.

jhildebrand
01-25-2012, 03:34 PM
The playcalling was predictable because TEBOW was very very VERY limited. Lets be honest, the coaches knew Tebow was extremely limited before making him the starter, which is WHY it took Orton to completely fail in order to make him the starter. Tebow's throwing absolutely, 100%, LIMITS the play book and the playcalling. The coaches can only work with what they have, and believe me when I say.... THEY absolutely know more about what his limitations are than those defending.

This is bunk. Fox is simply predictable. It is Foxball as much as it is Marty ball.

I have posted Fox's Carolina team's possessions-play by play- in the super bowl against New England.

You know what-it looks identical to Denver games this season. You know how many 1st down passes there were prior to the mid point of the 3rd quarter? 3!!!!!! So was Jake Delhomme limited. Was Fox trying not to let Delhomme have it?

Go look at the play by play. You will see run left, run middle, run right punt. Run left, run right, 3rd and long pass. You will see the passing game was limited until it became crunch time and later in the game with NE's lead growing. Same as here.

It is a serious fallacy, IMHO, to try to read into Fox's thinking about Tebow with the game plans when it looks identical to most of Fox's past. He is who the carolina fans tell us he is-run first, run often, limit mistakes.

jhildebrand
01-25-2012, 03:36 PM
What does play calling have to do with my statement? Your assumptions and predictions/guesses on playcalls are nothing but speculation and dreams. Chicago dropping safeties 20yrds back pre-snap is a fact. The "we should throw more crossing routes" is about as elementary as "we should throw on first down." There is no substance to either.

Why did they do that Rav? There was a reason. What Tebow and the offense had done early in the game dictated that to a degree. Pittsburgh tried the opposite approach and tried to all out blitz him-which ironically was the cry from the armchair experts and talking heads following the bears game-how did that work out for them?

:lol:

wayninja
01-25-2012, 03:36 PM
This is bunk. Fox is simply predictable. It is Foxball as much as it is Marty ball.

I have posted Fox's Carolina team's possessions-play by play- in the super bowl against New England.

You know what-it looks identical to Denver games this season. You know how many 1st down passes there were prior to the mid point of the 3rd quarter? 3!!!!!! So was Jake Delhomme limited. Was Fox trying not to let Delhomme have it?

Go look at the play by play. You will see run left, run middle, run right punt. Run left, run right, 3rd and long pass. You will see the passing game was limited until it became crunch time and later in the game with NE's lead growing. Same as here.

It is a serious fallacy, IMHO, to try to read into Fox's thinking about Tebow with the game plans when it looks identical to most of Fox's past. He is who the carolina fans tell us he is-run first, run often, limit mistakes.

You are right, but not necessarily for this reason. It's a chicken/egg argument.

If the point of the season became to evaluate Tebow (which was the rationale given to putting in a 3rd string QB), why would they not let him throw it even if he couldn't?

It just doesn't hold water.

HammeredOut
01-25-2012, 03:38 PM
At this point they have to let him beat himself on the field. He need to fail on the field and not in practice.

What they needed to do was build the championship defense after we get a franchise QB. I bet Elway put Tebow out on the burner to sink us into the top 10, so we could have a chance at Andrew Luck. His plan back fired, and Tebow pulled off some wins with basically no offense.

If Tebow has a year with a bad defense, his 17 or 18 points he can put up on the board will be nullified by the opposing teams 30+ points of offense, just like it did Kyle Orton.

Mike
01-25-2012, 03:38 PM
Wins/losses are a tough measuring stick. Next year's schedule looks tough and you never know what injuries you might have or how the loss of Allen will impact the team.

Things I expect to see:
- More timing routes
- Trust and confidence in himself and the receivers
- Better footwork
- Short drop/quick releases
- Anticipation
- Good/quick decision making ability

If he can do those things consistently, I will consider it a success regardless of wins/losses. If he can't, give me Barkley.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 03:44 PM
What they needed to do was build the championship defense after we get a franchise QB. I bet Elway put Tebow out on the burner to sink us into the top 10, so we could have a chance at Andrew Luck. His plan back fired, and Tebow pulled off some wins with basically no offense.

If Tebow has a year with a bad defense, his 17 or 18 points he can put up on the board will be nullified by the opposing teams 30+ points of offense, just like it did Kyle Orton.

Thank you.

I had missed the Elway conspiracy theories lately.

I feel bad for the teams who lost to Tebow who had 'basically no offense'. How many were there?

At least you are getting closer to accurate with PPG now. It's much better than making stats up.

But you bring up a good point. Kyle Orton is awesome, right? Stats never lie.

HammeredOut
01-25-2012, 03:48 PM
This is the mother of all cherry picking.

Let's set a few things straight.

4. He was NOT last in every statistical category for a QB, that's more absurd than your initial fabrication of averages.


As for your desire to 'ride the tebow train' in order to lose next year and get a good draft position. That just sickens me. Go be a detroit fan.

What was Tebow good at then in any statistical category relating to the QB position, and QB stats. The only thing you came up with is "RUshing Yards". Thats not really the stat I was to hear as a fan, to hear that your QB didn't lead the league in Passing Yards, but "Rushing Yards". That's like drafting a 7 footer in the NBA to drop 3 pointers for your team all night, its not exactly what you need the guy to do.

Tebow your right only had like 4 more completions, then rushes. Still, that is a sad statistic.

As for riding the Tebow Train, I believe Elway rode it last year, and will ride it again this year. The Broncos have no draft position to take a franchise QB in the draft, and the FA are really bad this year. People want Matt Flynn, because of his one game wonder. I just say Sage Rosenfels to that. Do we want Don McNabb? I don't think Elway would take or offer him anything.

If the "Detroit" offense had our defense, that would be superbowl.

jhildebrand
01-25-2012, 03:48 PM
You are right, but not necessarily for this reason. It's a chicken/egg argument.

If the point of the season became to evaluate Tebow (which was the rationale given to putting in a 3rd string QB), why would they not let him throw it even if he couldn't?

It just doesn't hold water.

But they, FOX, let him throw as he has let his QB's in the past throw. Late in games and mostly on 3rd down. Fox treated Tebow no different than he did Delhomme in the super bowl.

HammeredOut
01-25-2012, 03:52 PM
Thank you.

I had missed the Elway conspiracy theories lately.

I feel bad for the teams who lost to Tebow who had 'basically no offense'. How many were there?

At least you are getting closer to accurate with PPG now. It's much better than making stats up.

But you bring up a good point. Kyle Orton is awesome, right? Stats never lie.

I believe when Orton was in Denver our Defense gave up an average of 28 points per game. The only team that can win with a defense like that is Payton Manning, as his team proved this year.

Basically no offense"" was the result of no opportunity to get any production do to our "Basically Shutdown Defense".

I didn't make up stats.. I pulled out the stats from 5 out of 7 of his regular season wins. Showed the 12 points a game our defense gave up, vs. our offense who averaged 16 points a game in that 5 game span of wins. No conspiracy at all. Do you know what an Average is?

wayninja
01-25-2012, 04:08 PM
I believe when Orton was in Denver our Defense gave up an average of 28 points per game. The only team that can win with a defense like that is Payton Manning, as his team proved this year.

It's the same exact defense that Tebow had. And they gave up ~23 per game while he was playing. Slightly better, yes, but same defense.


Basically no offense"" was the result of no opportunity to get any production do to our "Basically Shutdown Defense".

23 points per game is 'basically shutdown'? Or you only want to evaluate wins in that average. And only SOME wins at that?


I didn't make up stats.. I pulled out the stats from 5 out of 7 of his regular season wins. Showed the 12 points a game our defense gave up, vs. our offense who averaged 16 points a game in that 5 game span of wins. No conspiracy at all. Do you know what an Average is?

Yes, an average is totals divided by number of iterations. And you were wrong. You even admitted it, as you didn't say 16 ppg.

If you are going to use the word average, you should really qualify it with (oh using only THESE particular games) BEFORE someone calls you out on it.

If you want to just play the cherry pick average game;

1. Tebow averaged a passer rating of 119.8 over 4 games this season.
2. Tebow averaged 34 points per game over 3 games this season.

I could go on and on. Cherry picking is dumb.

catfish
01-25-2012, 04:15 PM
At this point they have to let him beat himself on the field. He need to fail on the field and not in practice.

I don't know. If Elway and Co don't see the improvement they are looking for I can see them sitting him. I think they will do whatever needs to be done in order to make the team as competitive as possible. At least I would hope thats what they would do

wayninja
01-25-2012, 04:21 PM
What was Tebow good at then in any statistical category relating to the QB position, and QB stats. The only thing you came up with is "RUshing Yards". Thats not really the stat I was to hear as a fan, to hear that your QB didn't lead the league in Passing Yards, but "Rushing Yards". That's like drafting a 7 footer in the NBA to drop 3 pointers for your team all night, its not exactly what you need the guy to do.

I didn't point that out to debunk your claim that he was last in every statistical category, anyone with a computer can tell that isn't true. You can look up the stats yourself, if you want. It would probably be better than making stuff up. Or are you now going to change from 'last in every category' to 'not good in every category'?


Tebow your right only had like 4 more completions, then rushes. Still, that is a sad statistic.

It's only sad if you lose. If you win, it's effective. I don't hear a lot of people complaining about Cam Newton.


As for riding the Tebow Train, I believe Elway rode it last year, and will ride it again this year. The Broncos have no draft position to take a franchise QB in the draft, and the FA are really bad this year. People want Matt Flynn, because of his one game wonder. I just say Sage Rosenfels to that. Do we want Don McNabb? I don't think Elway would take or offer him anything.

Your assumption of what Elway is thinking is too absurd to refute.


If the "Detroit" offense had our defense, that would be superbowl.

Detroit allowed less points per game this season than our defense did, had just as many sacks and almost twice the number of take-aways.

Yeah. Superbowl.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 04:25 PM
I don't know. If Elway and Co don't see the improvement they are looking for I can see them sitting him. I think they will do whatever needs to be done in order to make the team as competitive as possible. At least I would hope thats what they would do

No. They will do whatever it takes to get the draft position they want. They don't want to win now, they want to win later. Or something like that. It's complicated. They hired John Fox because he was the coach of the worst team last year. They hired Allen because the saints were more offense than defense and were hoping that spirit of neglect would come here. They drafted Miller because they thought he was overrated. The kept McCoy because everyone knows he sucks.

See the pattern? Anything to get Luck, but we pulled a Major League on them.

catfish
01-25-2012, 04:43 PM
No. They will do whatever it takes to get the draft position they want. They don't want to win now, they want to win later. Or something like that. It's complicated. They hired John Fox because he was the coach of the worst team last year. They hired Allen because the saints were more offense than defense and were hoping that spirit of neglect would come here. They drafted Miller because they thought he was overrated. The kept McCoy because everyone knows he sucks.

See the pattern? Anything to get Luck, but we pulled a Major League on them.

I assume it was all a plan to move the team to Orlando?;)

wayninja
01-25-2012, 04:47 PM
I assume it was all a plan to move the team to Orlando?;)

LA. I'll get you a copy of the movie. Or you can ask John to lend you his copy. It's his team building template, apparently.

HammeredOut
01-25-2012, 06:35 PM
It's only sad if you lose. If you win, it's effective. I don't hear a lot of people complaining about Cam Newton.

.

Cam Newton put up 4000 yards in the air as a rookie. Had 35 total touchdowns. Broke a few NFL records in the process. Maybe you heard of him?? This same rookie put up over 400 yards passing in his first 2 games...Maybe you heard of him?? Also, helped his offense to over 21 points in 12 of his games... and in 6 of those games he put up 27 points or more.. Not a ton to complain about, other then the fact his defense gave up 27 points or more in about 9 games..

wayninja
01-25-2012, 06:37 PM
Cam Newton put up 4000 yards in the air as a rookie. Had 35 total touchdowns. Broke a few NFL records in the process. Maybe you heard of him?? This same rookie put up over 400 yards passing in his first 2 games...Maybe you heard of him?? Also, helped his offense to over 21 points in 12 of his games... and in 6 of those games he put up 27 points or more.. Not a ton to complain about, other then the fact his defense gave up 27 points or more in about 9 games..

So? He had a high rushing to completion ratio. Sad, right?

Tebow broke some records too. Good ones. But that doesn't count, right?

NightTerror218
01-25-2012, 06:43 PM
Cam Newton put up 4000 yards in the air as a rookie. Had 35 total touchdowns. Broke a few NFL records in the process. Maybe you heard of him?? This same rookie put up over 400 yards passing in his first 2 games...Maybe you heard of him?? Also, helped his offense to over 21 points in 12 of his games... and in 6 of those games he put up 27 points or more.. Not a ton to complain about, other then the fact his defense gave up 27 points or more in about 9 games..

He also has very high offensive talent around him. Like 4 pro bowl talent around him. Maybe your heard of them Smith, Williams, Olsen, and Kalil. Also Shockey and Stewart and pretty damn good too. Just saying.

wayninja
01-25-2012, 06:51 PM
He also has very high offensive talent around him. Like 4 pro bowl talent around him. Maybe your heard of them Smith, Williams, Olsen, and Kalil. Also Shockey and Stewart and pretty damn good too. Just saying.

Even though this is true, it's totally beside the point. This entire thread Hammered has pointed out silly stuff and when he's called on it, he ignores it or goes on a tangent.

The point he made was that a high running to completion ratio was sad. So, explain why it's not sad when Cam does it and loses and Tebow does it and wins?

VonSackemMiller
01-25-2012, 07:07 PM
What was Tebow good at then in any statistical category relating to the QB position, and QB stats. The only thing you came up with is "RUshing Yards". Thats not really the stat I was to hear as a fan, to hear that your QB didn't lead the league in Passing Yards, but "Rushing Yards". That's like drafting a 7 footer in the NBA to drop 3 pointers for your team all night, its not exactly what you need the guy to do.

Tebow your right only had like 4 more completions, then rushes. Still, that is a sad statistic.

As for riding the Tebow Train, I believe Elway rode it last year, and will ride it again this year. The Broncos have no draft position to take a franchise QB in the draft, and the FA are really bad this year. People want Matt Flynn, because of his one game wonder. I just say Sage Rosenfels to that. Do we want Don McNabb? I don't think Elway would take or offer him anything.

If the "Detroit" offense had our defense, that would be superbowl.

Shall I pull up tebows 4th quarter QB stats?

wayninja
01-25-2012, 07:08 PM
Shall I pull up tebows 4th quarter QB stats?

Why would you? There would be a reason they wouldn't count. Except for a game or two that supported an agenda.

VonSackemMiller
01-25-2012, 07:23 PM
I mean he asked when has tebow ever looed good as a qb ever...... Tebows only issue is consistancy, he can play QB.

MOtorboat
01-25-2012, 07:26 PM
Yeah, um, except consistency is really probably the most important part...

slim
01-25-2012, 07:27 PM
Most young QBs are inconsistent.

VonSackemMiller
01-25-2012, 07:31 PM
yeah look at matty ice, 3 yrs of starting still inconsistant, alot of young qbs are incinsistant. Tebow has what 19 starts or less? Give em some time.

Canmore
01-25-2012, 09:48 PM
With a little over 52% of the voting, the clear cut choice is Improved passing is more important to the future. Tebow has got to improve his passing, especially his completion percentage. I could go on and on but that is just rehashing what has already been said. Can he? I don't know and it is a long ways to the 2012 season.

MOtorboat
01-25-2012, 10:06 PM
Most young QBs are inconsistent.

Not this inconsistent.

:coffee:

Canmore
01-25-2012, 10:15 PM
Not this inconsistent.

:coffee:

Tebow clearly has a long way to go. Accuracy, completion percentage, progressions, hitting the check-down receiver and mechanics, especially consistent footwork. The list of things that Tim needs work on seems endless. All of these parameters factor in to his "inconsistencies". On a positive note, Tim's work ethic seems to have no bounds and Elway has scheduled Tim on his to do list.

MOtorboat
01-25-2012, 10:19 PM
Tebow clearly has a long way to go. Accuracy, completion percentage, progressions, hitting the check-down receiver and mechanics, especially consistent footwork. The list of things that Tim needs work on seems endless. All of these parameters factor in to his "inconsistencies". On a positive note, Tim's work ethic seems to have no bounds and Elway has scheduled Tim on his to do list.

Maybe. That's not real proven either. He severely regressed from his first three starts to this year and severely regressed even more in three of his last four starts.

Canmore
01-25-2012, 10:31 PM
Maybe. That's not real proven either. He severely regressed from his first three starts to this year and severely regressed even more in three of his last four starts.

Everything I have seen on Tim's work ethic is nothing but very positive. It is one thing that I think you can count on from Tebow, he is not going to be outworked. Outplayed is a whole other story.

He may of regressed in some of his last four starts but that game against Pittsburgh was a winner. There is definitely some potential there. You don't put up the kind of numbers that Tebow put up without some kind of talent.

wayninja
01-26-2012, 12:08 AM
Not this inconsistent.

:coffee:

He's consistently good when the game is on the line and it's close enough to win.

Was Orton?

arapaho2
01-26-2012, 01:06 AM
What was Tebow good at then in any statistical category relating to the QB position, .


we should look up 4th qrt come from behind wins...or would that count:lol:

Convalesce
01-26-2012, 01:20 AM
I hate Tebow 'cause I'm scared of him. >.<

My Father, a former Oakland Raider fan, was a HUGE Oakland Raider fan back in Elways days. He hated Elway because he was a winner.

If Tebow gets his throwing game together, which by the way he wants to win and work at it, I think he will...shits gooooin' to get scary.

You can teach decision-making, you can teach accuracy to a point, but you can't teach, "Gameday". Just the ability to put everything on the line making sure you're going to win.

If the Broncos are able to get a lot more passing done, I think the option will stay in the play-book. Mixing it up like that would make the Broncos deadly, imo.

arapaho2
01-26-2012, 01:57 AM
You can't just ignore Tebow's share of why our offense looked like this though. It's fair criticism to say the WRs struggled, the coach didn't necessarily draw up the most creative passing attack, young OL, etc etc. But Tebow's shortcomings as an NFL passer played at least as big a roll in the look of the offense as all those combined. He's the quarterback, it's just a fact.

What Tebow can and can't do dictates what the Denver Broncos offense can and can't do.

That's not a controversial statement. If you remove Tebow from the discussion, everyone not new to the game understands that. It's only when it's Tebow that blame needs to be redirected as widely as possible.

You want to run screens, but when a defense's objective isn't to pressure the QB, but to keep him the pocket, screens don't work. Last one I remember we tried was vs BUF and Tebow got sacked.

You want to run more crossing routes...we ran one on 3rd down during our 2min offense vs PIT, Tebow bounced it 5 yards short.

You want to run more slants, but Tebow has inconsistent footwork and a long wind-up vs LBs in spy, a young OL that can't keep DL's hands down, and a WR core that has struggled at times especially getting off the line.

The reason there's so many long throws is threefold: easiest read and lowest risk, defenses putting safeties in the box, and Tebow's unwillingness to hit checkdowns. The coaches recognized Tebow's strengths and weaknesses, and put together a gameplan to protect the team from the bad early so the good would have a chance to make a difference late.

Either 2nd or 3rd series vs NE, score was 7-0, 1st down run was 3-4 yards, tried to pass on 2nd down. Sack, strip, game.

nobody is saying tebow didnt play a part in the offensive shortfalls...what were saying is yes he struggled, yes he needs to improve...yes he needs to understand a defense...yes he needs work
but the predictable playcalling played a huge part also


but to continue this farce of the offense wasnt predictable and if it was it was only because of tebow is assinine

so your saying tebow cant throw short quick hits...slants, screens or any of those thats why we didnt call them...is that it...tebows inability to hit the short pass was why we hardly used them?

i look at his pass attempts from -1 to 10 yards

127 attempts behind or out to ten yards...66.4completion % and a 86.8 qbr%............sorta tells a differant story doesnt it

then you say we cant run screens because ....wait was it every single defense we played....or what one did covers em all?....nevermind...but we cant run them because all defenses didnt play to pressure tebow but just played contain to prevent him from running....then follow that with an example ...where he was evidently presssured and sacked!!! :lol::lol:

and i would bet every single qb...coach...analyst would laugh you out of the building if you tried to tell them the easiest throws a qb can make are the deep ones....and thats why we threw alot of them...cause there the easiest:lol:.....dude theres a friggen reason a qbs com% goes down the further away he passes

lets look at brady

from -1 to 10 yards his com% was about a 72.9
from 10-20....it dropped to a 57%
from 20-30....done to a 42%

now if those deeper passes was the easiest to complete...wouldnt the best qb in the game have great deep stats?

perhaps you need to rethink

bcbronc
01-26-2012, 02:49 AM
He's consistently good when the game is on the line and it's close enough to win.

Was Orton?

I think we should set the bar a bit higher than Orton. Orton sucked, how does that improve Tebow's performance?


yes he needs work
but the predictable playcalling played a huge part also

but to continue this farce of the offense wasnt predictable and if it was it was only because of tebow is assinine


Chicken or egg I guess. Not to say I thought McCoy called the best possible game with Tebow at QB, I don't, not even close.



so your saying tebow cant throw short quick hits...slants, screens or any of those thats why we didnt call them...is that it...tebows inability to hit the short pass was why we hardly used them?

i look at his pass attempts from -1 to 10 yards

127 attempts behind or out to ten yards...66.4completion % and a 86.8 qbr%............sorta tells a differant story doesnt it


Yes, I agree that McCoy called the right pass plays to allow Tebow to have success, even if there was plenty of room for improvement in the playcalling overall.

How many of those 127 attempts were quick 3-step drop slants? Going by memory, not very many. Is that because it's not in the playbook, or because they run them in practice and see how successful it isn't? Only the coaches know for sure.


then you say we cant run screens because ....wait was it every single defense we played....or what one did covers em all?....nevermind...but we cant run them because all defenses didnt play to pressure tebow but just played contain to prevent him from running....then follow that with an example ...where he was evidently presssured and sacked!!! :lol::lol:

seriously? He was sacked because the playside DE didn't come up field and took away the play to the RB, giving the DTs all day to get to Tebow (and of course the OL let them through, with it being a screen).


and i would bet every single qb...coach...analyst would laugh you out of the building if you tried to tell them the easiest throws a qb can make are the deep ones....and thats why we threw alot of them...cause there the easiest:lol:.....dude theres a friggen reason a qbs com% goes down the further away he passes

I didn't say it was the easiest throw to make, I said it was the easiest read and the lowest risk. All the QB has to read is over the top help. If it's not there, throw the ball. If it's picked, it's a punt anyway.

Compare that to say a 10-yard in, and there's up to 9-10 defenders that are possible involved (all 4 DL, the LBs underneath, the safeties over top and depending on coverages, a CB). Much harder to read the middle of the field for a young QB, especially with the blitz and zone packages DCs run these days.


lets look at brady

from -1 to 10 yards his com% was about a 72.9
from 10-20....it dropped to a 57%
from 20-30....done to a 42%

now if those deeper passes was the easiest to complete...wouldnt the best qb in the game have great deep stats?

perhaps you need to rethink

Perhaps you need to reread.

iLands
01-26-2012, 04:25 AM
Just rewatched Minnesota.

10/15

One throwaway
One ball comes out of Decker's guts
Two DT drops, one that would have been a TD
One incompletion from DT stepping on the line with his second foot.

and

One third and over ten conversion from Tebow to Willis that was negated by a penalty.

Zero (!) errant throws.

I'll be rewatching more games this week and posting my findings.

Joel
01-26-2012, 07:44 AM
Why are wins on this poll? We got 9 this year, why would doing it again mean anything?

Everyone knows it was the defense who got us those wins, anyway.
Exactly. My personal metrics are one thing, but since we won a playoff game with him this year and there are active threads asking about his trade value, obviously nothing short of the AFCCG NEXT year will end the debate. Anything less and those critical of his mechanics or execution will remain so, however much it improves, just as defenders will insist he simply needs more time. Fairly or not, he has until the end of next season (at most) to convince EFX our concept car isn't just spinning his wheels.

The PERTINENT question is what will convince THEM, and we can only go by what they've said. According to Elway, converting third down is key, as it should be. Hopefully that won't be the lions share of Tebows passes, because they've also indicated his completion percentage must improve (again, rightly.) 55-60% is probably a reasonable ball park estimate; however much Tebow is or isn't improving, the bottom line is our QB must consistently deliver wins. If Tebows completion percentage rises 5 points without producing more wins, expect the development project to continue in the garage rather than on the track.

Beyond that, I can only guess EFXs standards and expectations. I've not seen them say it, but imagine more receivers routinely doing jumping jacks to get his attention bodes ill for our starting QB. Likewise needless sacks and fumbles (NOT good Foxball.) Game speed progressions could also be important. Beyond EFXs stated criteria it is impossible to know, probably no accident; they don't want to paint themselves into a corner.

chazoe60
01-26-2012, 07:59 AM
Thats not really the stat I was to hear as a fan, to hear that your QB didn't lead the league in Passing Yards, but "Rushing Yards". That's like drafting a 7 footer in the NBA to drop 3 pointers for your team all night, its not exactly what you need the guy to do.

.

Yeah, what NBA team would be dumb enough to do that?

Oh that's right the NBA champion Dallas Mavericks. :laugh: Ever heard of Dirk Nowitzki(sp?)?

Analogy fail! :laugh::laugh::laugh:

MOtorboat
01-26-2012, 08:14 AM
He's consistently good when the game is on the line and it's close enough to win.

Was Orton?

If the argument for Tebow is always "was Orton?" then you probably don't have very high standard for the position.

wayninja
01-26-2012, 09:33 AM
If the argument for Tebow is always "was Orton?" then you probably don't have very high standard for the position.


I think we should set the bar a bit higher than Orton. Orton sucked, how does that improve Tebow's performance?

I'm not saying Orton is the standard, I'm simply pointing out that high passing yards or completion percentage doesn't tell the story.

I think Tebow is already a far superior QB than Orton and it has nothing to do with completion percentage.

Chef Zambini
01-26-2012, 09:34 AM
Just rewatched Minnesota.

10/15

One throwaway
One ball comes out of Decker's guts
Two DT drops, one that would have been a TD
One incompletion from DT stepping on the line with his second foot.

and

One third and over ten conversion from Tebow to Willis that was negated by a penalty.

Zero (!) errant throws.

I'll be rewatching more games this week and posting my findings.how about the detroit game? he is expected to PERFORM in that type of offense next season !
I dare you to re-watch and give an honest report of that game !
please add sacks and runs for tebow in the MINN game and future games as well !

Chef Zambini
01-26-2012, 09:49 AM
why are all of you bothering with STATS to make a compelling arguement?
LOOK AT THE POLL !!!
more than HALF of the responses, chose "improved passing' as their barometer rather than any QUANTIFIABLE, difinitive response !
MOST of the tebow enthusiasts want to baste in the false reality that tebow will just magicly provide wins, regardless of his skill set and the attempts to convert him to a conventional QB has resulted in FAILURE and sURRENDER to what TEBOW has comfort with in every siongle phase of his football career, starting in HIGH SCHOOL !
It will be just like the attempts to make PLUMMER a POCKET passer!
end result, FAILURE !
My response was 7 wins! I would be stunned if TEBOW could generate 7 wins in a prototypical NFL offense!

silkamilkamonico
01-26-2012, 09:59 AM
I for one am really hoping Tebow improves as a passer because he has so many other great qualities.

I was however wondering where people see him as a QB in the NFL. In my honest opinion, he is right now somewhere between 25-27, mixed in a bunch with Matt Moore, Kevin Kolb, Carson Palmer and Kyle Orton.

catfish
01-26-2012, 09:59 AM
why are all of you bothering with STATS to make a compelling arguement?
LOOK AT THE POLL !!!
more than HALF of the responses, chose "improved passing' as their barometer rather than any QUANTIFIABLE, difinitive response !
MOST of the tebow enthusiasts want to baste in the false reality that tebow will just magicly provide wins, regardless of his skill set and the attempts to convert him to a conventional QB has resulted in FAILURE and sURRENDER to what TEBOW has comfort with in every siongle phase of his football career, starting in HIGH SCHOOL !
It will be just like the attempts to make PLUMMER a POCKET passer!
end result, FAILURE !
My response was 7 wins! I would be stunned if TEBOW could generate 7 wins in a prototypical NFL offense!

to be fair the polls option are either

wins, which if that was the only thing that mattered this thread would not exist since his win % is pretty good.

Improved passing, which could mean better footwork, reading defenses highe completion% higher YPA higher YPC , better QBR etc etc.

or I hate him

the only real choice is improved passing so the poll really doesnt prove anything. The argument is not does Tebow need to improve his passing, it is how much and how should improvement be measured

silkamilkamonico
01-26-2012, 10:00 AM
how about the detroit game? he is expected to PERFORM in that type of offense next season !


Just wait, if he fails miserably in that offense, people are going to come out in full force and say, "Why not let him play in a gimmick option college offense that he excels in!!"

And we all know he didn't even excel in that with the exception of a couple games.

wayninja
01-26-2012, 10:01 AM
why are all of you bothering with STATS to make a compelling arguement?
LOOK AT THE POLL !!!
more than HALF of the responses, chose "improved passing' as their barometer rather than any QUANTIFIABLE, difinitive response !
MOST of the tebow enthusiasts want to baste in the false reality that tebow will just magicly provide wins, regardless of his skill set and the attempts to convert him to a conventional QB has resulted in FAILURE and sURRENDER to what TEBOW has comfort with in every siongle phase of his football career, starting in HIGH SCHOOL !
It will be just like the attempts to make PLUMMER a POCKET passer!
end result, FAILURE !
My response was 7 wins! I would be stunned if TEBOW could generate 7 wins in a prototypical NFL offense!

As much as I don't really believe in stats, I'd take them any day over a poll.

No one here has ever remotely claimed that Tebow will magically provide wins or that he doesn't need to improve his passing.

Tebow got 7 (with only starting 2/3 the season) wins this season. But they don't count. I suspect if he does it next season, they won't count either.

Lastly, Jake wasn't a 'failure' (if you want to even use that word) because of his pocket passing skills.

catfish
01-26-2012, 10:04 AM
I for one am really hoping Tebow improves as a passer because he has so many other great qualities.

I was however wondering where people see him as a QB in the NFL. In my honest opinion, he is right now somewhere between 25-27, mixed in a bunch with Matt Moore, Kevin Kolb, Carson Palmer and Kyle Orton.

I think maybe a bit higher for me, but not much, 20-25 range mostly because of the danger of his legs. in the below average group, but above the wash out group. Pretty much where I expect the average 2nd year. Matches up to total QBR rank if you peruse Joel's thread. Surely not average or above, and for certain nowhere near top 10

silkamilkamonico
01-26-2012, 10:18 AM
I think maybe a bit higher for me, but not much, 20-25 range mostly because of the danger of his legs. in the below average group, but above the wash out group. Pretty much where I expect the average 2nd year. Matches up to total QBR rank if you peruse Joel's thread. Surely not average or above, and for certain nowhere near top 10

Yea I have him somewhere in the mid to lower 20 range. IMHO there are only 3, maybe 4 organizations he could walk in and start (Jacksonville, Washington, Minnesota, and maybe Seattle) I certainly think that's ok, because at one point as a starter Drew Brees was probably among the worst starting QB's in the NFL.

catfish
01-26-2012, 10:28 AM
Yea I have him somewhere in the mid to lower 20 range. IMHO there are only 3, maybe 4 organizations he could walk in and start (Jacksonville, Washington, Minnesota, and maybe Seattle) I certainly think that's ok, because at one point as a starter Drew Brees was probably among the worst starting QB's in the NFL.

I agree. IMO he probably should have been on the bench this year, and maybe next year too. Too late for that now. All I want is for people to realize that most QBs go through a growth curve. If Tebow is to be compared to others it should be the other 2nd year QB's I think he is doing ok so far. Should he regress next year, or show no progress address it at that time. The completion% doesnt tell the whole story IMO, but he does need to learn to hit the checkdown and stop swinging for the fences every time.

I don't just defend Tebow because I am a fan of his. I really think if young QB's(whomever they may be) continue to be held to these super high standards or else the fan base turns on them it will lead to a constant QB carousel that will in turn lead to constant mediocrity. You cant bring in a QB and if he isnt top 5 in 2 years dump him for the next guy, then repeat and expect any kind of upward trend. Of all the positions on the field QB takes the longest to learn. Fill other spots on the team and give a young guy a chance to develop. Even if it is Tebow's replacement

Joel
01-26-2012, 11:38 AM
Wow, and I thought nothing could top the popular "Tebow can't fit balls into tight windows or hit open receivers, even though he repeatedly did both, several times on a Pro Bowl CB, against Pitt in the playoffs." There WERE extenuating circumstances (Pitt didn't rush much so Tebow didn't eat many sacks/fumbles due to holding the ball or our poor pass blocking.) He still made many very nice passes.

Tebow was ranked last in every statistical category for a QB.
That is not even remotely true. Saying it undermines your argument, believing it, your credibility. Tebows 6.4 YPA was 26th, his 4.4% TDs was 14th and his 2.2% Ints was 8th. None of those is last, two of them aren't bad, and the last is in the top ten. We can debate the importance of those stats, but they constitute 75% of the NFLs Passer Rating formula, so the League apparently thinks them important (unfortunately, it thinks the fourth component, completion percentage, is more important than any of them, but no one wants to hear me rant about that again. :tongue:)

Tebow needs improvement in many areas, but when people say manifestly untrue things like "he was ranked last in every statistical category for a QB" I stop listening, because that denotes a narrative undisturbed by facts.

I think maybe a bit higher for me, but not much, 20-25 range mostly because of the danger of his legs. in the below average group, but above the wash out group. Pretty much where I expect the average 2nd year. Matches up to total QBR rank if you peruse Joel's thread. Surely not average or above, and for certain nowhere near top 10
Unsurprisingly, that's about where I'd put him, too (and thanks for the plug. ;)) Not bad for 16 starts, but not nearly good enough for the career starter he isn't yet. The next year or two should tell the tale.

MasterShake
01-26-2012, 11:55 AM
I haven't really been keeping track of this thread, but at this point I think another good question to ask is at what point would Tebow be considered an UNSuccessful Starter in the NFL? Winning masks a lot of issues with any player or team, and we definitely did that this year. The problem with Tebow is that those who don't like him will point to the wins as Team Wins or Defensive Wins, and Tebow supporters will point to intangibles and making the players around him better. We still don't have a big enough sample size of games to see if either argument is true, but we are getting close in my opinion.

So going forward I'm just going to keep it simple. Tebow can not be measured as "successful" or not until we have something to measure it against. Right now we do. We have about a 50% passer who can win close games and got us to the divisional round in the playoffs. I guess technically success for me will be improvements in passing and wins. I just want to see more of the kid, which is more than I could say for Orton.

catfish
01-26-2012, 12:08 PM
I haven't really been keeping track of this thread, but at this point I think another good question to ask is at what point would Tebow be considered an UNSuccessful Starter in the NFL? Winning masks a lot of issues with any player or team, and we definitely did that this year. The problem with Tebow is that those who don't like him will point to the wins as Team Wins or Defensive Wins, and Tebow supporters will point to intangibles and making the players around him better. We still don't have a big enough sample size of games to see if either argument is true, but we are getting close in my opinion.

So going forward I'm just going to keep it simple. Tebow can not be measured as "successful" or not until we have something to measure it against. Right now we do. We have about a 50% passer who can win close games and got us to the divisional round in the playoffs. I guess technically success for me will be improvements in passing and wins. I just want to see more of the kid, which is more than I could say for Orton.

In order to be considered unsuccessful he is going to have to show no improvement or regress, and start losing games. If his stats are poor but they still scrape out 9-10 wins he will get another year. If they only win 6 but his stats improve quite a bit he will get another year. My money is on Elway and co putting more emphasis on YPA rather than completion %. So that is the stat I would track for improvement alog with TD% 3rd down% and int%

MasterShake
01-26-2012, 12:13 PM
In order to be considered unsuccessful he is going to have to show no improvement or regress, and start losing games. If his stats are poor but they still scrape out 9-10 wins he will get another year. If they only win 6 but his stats improve quite a bit he will get another year. My money is on Elway and co putting more emphasis on YPA rather than completion %. So that is the stat I would track for improvement alog with TD% 3rd down% and int%

Good point. 3rd Down % is something Elway has emphasized this past season and we HAVE to improve on.

NightTerror218
01-26-2012, 12:36 PM
In order to be considered unsuccessful he is going to have to show no improvement or regress, and start losing games. If his stats are poor but they still scrape out 9-10 wins he will get another year. If they only win 6 but his stats improve quite a bit he will get another year. My money is on Elway and co putting more emphasis on YPA rather than completion %. So that is the stat I would track for improvement alog with TD% 3rd down% and int%

I would like to see less 3rd and longs. Makes the conversions so much easier.

Chef Zambini
01-26-2012, 12:37 PM
to be fair the polls option are either

wins, which if that was the only thing that mattered this thread would not exist since his win % is pretty good.

Improved passing, which could mean better footwork, reading defenses highe completion% higher YPA higher YPC , better QBR etc etc.

or I hate him

the only real choice is improved passing so the poll really doesnt prove anything. The argument is not does Tebow need to improve his passing, it is how much and how should improvement be measuredno you misrepresent the poll options, sorry.
tebow supporters can quantify improvement with 3 different options that list either # of wins or titles(which should reflect a winning record)
but instead, AFRAID to quantify success, they chose instead, the nebulous response, "improved passing' which as you point out can mean almost anything and quantifies and qualifies NOTHING !
the foundation of tebow support is PASSION, not practical football skill.
More than HALF of the respondfannts fear the reality!
They use the arguement, 'all he does is win' but when it comes to putting a # on wins for next season to qualify tebow success, they HIDE IN THE SHADOWS of the non-commital response.

catfish
01-26-2012, 01:04 PM
no you misrepresent the poll options, sorry.
tebow supporters can quantify improvement with 3 different options that list either # of wins or titles(which should reflect a winning record)
but instead, AFRAID to quantify success, they chose instead, the nebulous response, "improved passing' which as you point out can mean almost anything and quantifies and qualifies NOTHING !
the foundation of tebow support is PASSION, not practical football skill.
More than HALF of the respondfannts fear the reality!
They use the arguement, 'all he does is win' but when it comes to putting a # on wins for next season to qualify tebow success, they HIDE IN THE SHADOWS of the non-commital response.

So in your opinion because he won 8 games and went to the playoffs he was a sucessfull QB this year? I think most people will agree with my interpretation. Wins are great, but not the be all end all, other wise why are we having this conversation. We went to the playoffs, and won hence he is a great QB. The most reasonable option is passing, and no-one is arguing that fact, the argument stems around how to measure the improvement. Some choose to focus on Completion % others on other stats. You instead decided the fact that most people chose the only rational answer as proof of some kind that Tebow sucks.

how about this, which stat does Tebow need to improve to show growth as a passer

1. Completion%
2. YPA
3. YPC
4. TD%
5. INT%
6 QPR
7 Total QBR
8. ESPN Total qbr
9. Eyeball test reading defenses
10 Eyeball test on comfort in the pocket
11. less sacks
12. He doesnt need to improve in any of these


these are all valid subsets of the passing/qb game.

The Tebow fans I respect like Tebow due to what they see as potential to be a franchise guy, there are very few guys put in the position Tebow was put in that will come out looking great. It has nothing to do with passion, more with rationality as to where a 2nd year QB should be along the progression curve.

I am sure from reading your past posts that passion has nothing to do with your dislike of Tebow and it is instead based upon a rational foundation that can be backed up by one or a combination of the stats I mentioned above. Please elaborate on your position using stats that you feel are important to you. Something more concrete than he isn't good at football would be nice.

NightTerror218
01-26-2012, 01:11 PM
http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_19822168

woody page fields questions about the offense and Tebow. I like his evaluation of the offense which is question 1. He also talks about the defense.

wayninja
01-26-2012, 01:13 PM
how about this, which stat does Tebow need to improve to show growth as a passer

1. Completion%
2. YPA
3. YPC
4. TD%
5. INT%
6 QPR
7 Total QBR
8. ESPN Total qbr
9. Eyeball test reading defenses
10 Eyeball test on comfort in the pocket
11. less sacks
12. He doesnt need to improve in any of these


These are fantastic poll options, I humbly suggest you start another thread. I might add, speed of release, and eye test on accuracy.

Having said that, I would choose 2, 9, 10, 11 and 12. :eek:

Chef Zambini
01-26-2012, 02:17 PM
So in your opinion because he won 8 games and went to the playoffs he was a sucessfull QB this year? I think most people will agree with my interpretation. Wins are great, but not the be all end all, other wise why are we having this conversation. We went to the playoffs, and won hence he is a great QB. The most reasonable option is passing, and no-one is arguing that fact, the argument stems around how to measure the improvement. Some choose to focus on Completion % others on other stats. You instead decided the fact that most people chose the only rational answer as proof of some kind that Tebow sucks.

how about this, which stat does Tebow need to improve to show growth as a passer

1. Completion%
2. YPA
3. YPC
4. TD%
5. INT%
6 QPR
7 Total QBR
8. ESPN Total qbr
9. Eyeball test reading defenses
10 Eyeball test on comfort in the pocket
11. less sacks
12. He doesnt need to improve in any of these


these are all valid subsets of the passing/qb game.

The Tebow fans I respect like Tebow due to what they see as potential to be a franchise guy, there are very few guys put in the position Tebow was put in that will come out looking great. It has nothing to do with passion, more with rationality as to where a 2nd year QB should be along the progression curve.

I am sure from reading your past posts that passion has nothing to do with your dislike of Tebow and it is instead based upon a rational foundation that can be backed up by one or a combination of the stats I mentioned above. Please elaborate on your position using stats that you feel are important to you. Something more concrete than he isn't good at football would be nice.no, I dont think HE won 8 games, I know the TEAM won 8 games, and I also know that TEBOW got damn lucky in most of them !
Run game and defense, solid special teams play, THOSE were the consistent contributers to the WINS !
Tebow is a poor excuse for an NFL QB.
next season, required to perform from the pocket he will be even worse.

Chef Zambini
01-26-2012, 02:21 PM
...and please spare me this second year QB stuff, MANY rookie QBs have outperformed tebow as PASSERS in their rookie season!
big ben
ryan
dalton
newton
as hard as he works, if he hasnt become an NFL style QB by now he NEVER vwill be.

wayninja
01-26-2012, 02:26 PM
as hard as he works, if he hasnt become an NFL style QB by now he NEVER vwill be.

This is a joke, right?

He is an 'NFL style QB'. You don't win NFL playoff games without being one.

silkamilkamonico
01-26-2012, 02:51 PM
...and please spare me this second year QB stuff, MANY rookie QBs have outperformed tebow as PASSERS in their rookie season!
big ben
ryan
dalton
newton
as hard as he works, if he hasnt become an NFL style QB by now he NEVER vwill be.

Matt Ryan has regressed as a QB, and what was once thought of as a guy who could become an elite QB one day, iss looking very much towards a very mediocre career.

catfish
01-26-2012, 02:58 PM
Matt Ryan has regressed as a QB, and what was once thought of as a guy who could become an elite QB one day, iss looking very much towards a very mediocre career.

big ben has shown a lot of growth during his career as well

Dalton is better than Tebow but not by much

Slightly higher YPA, slightly higher int % slightly lower TD% really pretty comparable performances

Cam Newton just came out and set a bunch of rookie passer records. I wouldn't think that he is the benchmark you should be using to measure QB success A guy comes out the box like that maybe one every 20 years

just expanding your thought Silk not arguin with you

HammeredOut
01-26-2012, 03:08 PM
.[/QUOTE]Wow, and I thought nothing could top the popular "Tebow can't fit balls into tight windows or hit open receivers, even though he repeatedly did both, several times on a Pro Bowl CB, against Pitt in the playoffs." There WERE extenuating circumstances (Pitt didn't rush much so Tebow didn't eat many sacks/fumbles due to holding the ball or our poor pass blocking.) He still made many very nice passes.
.[/QUOTE]


Wow, Tebow only hit 10 completions, or he "Repeatedly" hit about 2 completions per "Quarter". In the Pittsburgh game. Not only that, but Pitt played 8-9-10 guys in the box all night, usually 8 in the box on passing downs. That wasn't near "reapeatedly", or even close to being considered a good passing night. Tebow had more rushes then completions, thats because his coaches don't believe Tebow can hit an open receiver or "anticipate" the route.


.[/QUOTE]
That is not even remotely true. Saying it undermines your argument, believing it, your credibility. Tebows 6.4 YPA was 26th, his 4.4% TDs was 14th and his 2.2% Ints was 8th. None of those is last, two of them aren't bad, and the last is in the top ten. We can debate the importance of those stats, but they constitute 75% of the NFLs Passer Rating formula, so the League apparently thinks them important (unfortunately, it thinks the fourth component, completion percentage, is more important than any of them, but no one wants to hear me rant about that again. :tongue:)
.[/QUOTE]

Tebow's YPA was 26th>?? Its not considered last?? lol

Tebow had just about as many rushes as completions, so his INT rate should be down since he doesn't pass the ball much, or only about 9 times a game per average. So, out of 9 completions per game, im not sure how he could be getting picked off as much as he did when he passed the ball.

If you average out the number of Pass Attempts vs sacks per attempt, Compared to how many times Aaron Rodgers throw the ball, At the rate Tebow was getting sacked this year, Tim Tebow was on pace to be sacked over 90 times in a season. So if we sat Tebow in the pocket and let him pass all game and get sacked every 3.8 snaps per completion, would the numbers not prove that with the amount Tebow runs the ball, Tebow should not be getting sacked 1 time for every 4 completions. Tebow was actually sacked more the Tom Brady last season who had about 400 more attempts then Tebow. All that and Tebow only played 2/3 of a season.

Aside, his 123 yards a game is dead last and almost 30 yards off pace from the next guy Blaine Gabbert, his 3rd down converstion percentage is last at around 23 percent, 72.9 Rating was close to last, Tebow was 32nd in 1st down percentage, 27th in passing TDs with "12". Face it, Tebow was pretty close to the last rated QB in the game right now in terms of stats. 5 out of 7 of his wins came when the team averaged 16 points a game offensively, and only gave up 12 points a game defensively.


.[/QUOTE]
Tebow needs improvement in many areas, but when people say manifestly untrue things like "he was ranked last in every statistical category for a QB" I stop listening, because that denotes a narrative undisturbed by facts.

Unsurprisingly, that's about where I'd put him, too (and thanks for the plug. ;)) Not bad for 16 starts, but not nearly good enough for the career starter he isn't yet. The next year or two should tell the tale.[/QUOTE]

The Undisturbed facts is exactly the stats I am trying to educate you on.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_TOUCHDOWNS&tabSeq=0&season=2011&experience=null&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&qualified=true

wayninja
01-26-2012, 03:46 PM
Wow, Tebow only hit 10 completions, or he "Repeatedly" hit about 2 completions per "Quarter". In the Pittsburgh game. Not only that, but Pitt played 8-9-10 guys in the box all night, usually 8 in the box on passing downs. That wasn't near "reapeatedly", or even close to being considered a good passing night. Tebow had more rushes then completions, thats because his coaches don't believe Tebow can hit an open receiver or "anticipate" the route.

He had a fantastic night. You can spin it anyway you want, the guy played balls to the wall in the Pit game. Seems like you are so fixated on stats that you can't see that.

He did not have more rushes than completions. You continue to make shit up.

He threaded a crazy good pass to Royal in the endzone for a touchdown and made other great, deep throws. You can bitch and moan that receivers were wide open all you want, but it doesn't take away from the fact that he was hitting pretty tight windows.



Tebow's YPA was 26th>?? Its not considered last?? lol

No. It's not. See, you are making progress.


Tebow had just about as many rushes as completions, so his INT rate should be down since he doesn't pass the ball much, or only about 9 times a game per average. So, out of 9 completions per game, im not sure how he could be getting picked off as much as he did when he passed the ball.

WTF does this mean? Because he has less attempts he has less interceptions? So? What is being discussed is the interception RATE. Which, up to a certain sample size, doesn't care about number of attempts. You do know what RATE is, right?


If you average out the number of Pass Attempts vs sacks per attempt, Compared to how many times Aaron Rodgers throw the ball, At the rate Tebow was getting sacked this year, Tim Tebow was on pace to be sacked over 90 times in a season. So if we sat Tebow in the pocket and let him pass all game and get sacked every 3.8 snaps per completion, would the numbers not prove that with the amount Tebow runs the ball, Tebow should not be getting sacked 1 time for every 4 completions. Tebow was actually sacked more the Tom Brady last season who had about 400 more attempts then Tebow. All that and Tebow only played 2/3 of a season.

Again, what does this have to do with anything? Tebow holds on too long and tries to scramble when he gets into trouble. We all know this. For every sack he's taken, he's similarly ran for 5-10 yards instead of being sacked.


Aside, his 123 yards a game is dead last and almost 30 yards off pace from the next guy Blaine Gabbert, his 3rd down converstion percentage is last at around 23 percent, 72.9 Rating was close to last, Tebow was 32nd in 1st down percentage, 27th in passing TDs with "12". Face it, Tebow was pretty close to the last rated QB in the game right now in terms of stats. 5 out of 7 of his wins came when the team averaged 16 points a game offensively, and only gave up 12 points a game defensively.

But so what? You are cherry picking again. Does it really matter if he uses his arm or his legs to get the yards? If you add all the rushing done by QB's this year, his all purpose yards and TD's jumps him up quite a bit. You are confusing the means and the ends.

silkamilkamonico
01-26-2012, 04:34 PM
big ben has shown a lot of growth during his career as well

Dalton is better than Tebow but not by much

Slightly higher YPA, slightly higher int % slightly lower TD% really pretty comparable performances

Cam Newton just came out and set a bunch of rookie passer records. I wouldn't think that he is the benchmark you should be using to measure QB success A guy comes out the box like that maybe one every 20 years

just expanding your thought Silk not arguin with you


I just like to throw jabs at Ryan because I don't like him for some reason.

BTW, this thread has kind of went retarded. Some people here are arguing that Tebow is right now, the kind of QB he will be for the rest of his NFL career. That's just stupid. He could improve greatly, he could eve get worse, but to use only this season as some kind of measured potential is stupid.

We need to file this away and talk about it again in 2 years or so.

iLands
01-26-2012, 04:39 PM
how about the detroit game? he is expected to PERFORM in that type of offense next season !
I dare you to re-watch and give an honest report of that game !
please add sacks and runs for tebow in the MINN game and future games as well !

Chef - the reason I didn't report on the runs or the sacks are because you can see those on a stat sheet. A stat sheet doesn't tell you, in detail, about the passing. It doesn't tell you what were throwaways, what were drops, what were errant passes, and what were great passes that were nerfed by penalties. Each drop I called was not only visibly a drop, but was also called as such by the announcers.

I didn't realize how good the Minn game actually was.

I'll keep reporting on games. I'll do the Detroit game when I can, but there are very few seeders or peers and I've been DLing it for over two weeks now. :-/

I'll do it, along with many other games.

EDIT: Don't forget, we were lucky for winning the Pitt game. Why, you say? Because by winning that, it advanced us to another game in NE. With those two postseason games, we have 16 career starts for our quarterback which is great to make meaningful comparisons.

wayninja
01-26-2012, 04:45 PM
BTW, this thread has kind of went retarded. Some people here are arguing that Tebow is right now, the kind of QB he will be for the rest of his NFL career. That's just stupid. He could improve greatly, he could eve get worse, but to use only this season as some kind of measured potential is stupid.

We need to file this away and talk about it again in 2 years or so.

I have chef no idea chef what on chef earth you are chef talking about.

Chef.

Ravage!!!
01-26-2012, 07:47 PM
In order to be considered unsuccessful he is going to have to show no improvement or regress, and start losing games. If his stats are poor but they still scrape out 9-10 wins he will get another year. If they only win 6 but his stats improve quite a bit he will get another year. My money is on Elway and co putting more emphasis on YPA rather than completion %. So that is the stat I would track for improvement alog with TD% 3rd down% and int%

Well, he did start regressing and losing games at the last 5 of the season.

Also, any player, coach, and GM will always tell you that third down % and redzone is what makes or breaks a QB. Not his YPA. YPA doesn't mean anything if you aren't completing the IMPORTANT passes. I don't know of anyone that counts YPA as a major category.

If Tebow plays the same or regresses.. I think we look for another QB despite our win-loss record.

Hard to say where he'll be.

catfish
01-26-2012, 08:40 PM
Well, he did start regressing and losing games at the last 5 of the season.

Also, any player, coach, and GM will always tell you that third down % and redzone is what makes or breaks a QB. Not his YPA. YPA doesn't mean anything if you aren't completing the IMPORTANT passes. I don't know of anyone that counts YPA as a major category.

If Tebow plays the same or regresses.. I think we look for another QB despite our win-loss record.

Hard to say where he'll be.

I think perhaps you should take it in more than 4 game chunks you cant establish a trend 4 games at a time he had 3 bad games out of 5. the bills game he appeared over confident, the KC game too timid. The final NE game was a collapse by Tebow and everyone else on the team. Maybe the result of an emotionally draining win followed by short week and travel?

also you can't have red zone stats if you don't make it to the red zone, hence the imprtance of YPA. Tebow had all of 20 attempts in the redzone, was 50% with 6 passing TD's 2 INTs and an additional 13 rushing attempts for 5 TD's.

3rd down % is highly dependent upon 3rd and distance. Strangely Tebow completes a higher % of 3rd down passes that are 3rd and long vs. 3rd and short. Don't have an explanation for that. Maybe a result of man coverage + 8 men in the box messing with the short routes?

iLands
01-26-2012, 09:01 PM
Just finished watching the Oakland game again. I have analysis for each pass, but I'll write it up later since I need to transfer it here from a notebook and it's a few pages long in entries.

I'll probably have it up tomorrow.

Joel
01-27-2012, 09:10 AM
Wow, and I thought nothing could top the popular "Tebow can't fit balls into tight windows or hit open receivers, even though he repeatedly did both, several times on a Pro Bowl CB, against Pitt in the playoffs." There WERE extenuating circumstances (Pitt didn't rush much so Tebow didn't eat many sacks/fumbles due to holding the ball or our poor pass blocking.) He still made many very nice passes.
Wow, Tebow only hit 10 completions, or he "Repeatedly" hit about 2 completions per "Quarter". In the Pittsburgh game. Not only that, but Pitt played 8-9-10 guys in the box all night, usually 8 in the box on passing downs. That wasn't near "reapeatedly", or even close to being considered a good passing night. Tebow had more rushes then completions, thats because his coaches don't believe Tebow can hit an open receiver or "anticipate" the route.
Most of his completions (half, in fact) were in the 2nd quarter, when he was 5/10. Yes, 5 completions, several in tight coverage, counts as "repeatedly." On the first TD drive he fit long passes into tight windows twice in 3 plays. In fact, after the pass Decker dropped because Harrison kneecapped him, Tebow hit his next 4 straight, then missed Willis once before hitting Fells for 40. He repeatedly made tough passes, just as I said.
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=320108007&period=2

The problem was and remains consistency; sustaining that performance throughout games, and on a regular basis. In the second half he only hit 4 passes before OT. Granted he only attempted 9, but that's still not good enough for a starting NFL QB; it is, however, about what I expect of a second year QB, especially one in his 15th start. If he's still doing that often after 30 starts, it'll be time for the bench, but we aren't there yet.


That is not even remotely true. Saying it undermines your argument, believing it, your credibility. Tebows 6.4 YPA was 26th, his 4.4% TDs was 14th and his 2.2% Ints was 8th. None of those is last, two of them aren't bad, and the last is in the top ten. We can debate the importance of those stats, but they constitute 75% of the NFLs Passer Rating formula, so the League apparently thinks them important (unfortunately, it thinks the fourth component, completion percentage, is more important than any of them, but no one wants to hear me rant about that again. :tongue:)
Tebow's YPA was 26th>?? Its not considered last?? lol
Not since 1976, no. Additionally, that's on a list of qualifying passers that includes 34 QBs, so it's barely in the bottom ten. Meanwhile, his TD% is well within the top half, and his Int% is in the top ten.

Tebow had just about as many rushes as completions, so his INT rate should be down since he doesn't pass the ball much, or only about 9 times a game per average. So, out of 9 completions per game, im not sure how he could be getting picked off as much as he did when he passed the ball.
I believe wayninja already covered this; a rate is per attempt, so the number of attempts is largely irrelevant. To be clear:

If all but 7 other starting QBs threw as few passes as Tebow, they would STILL have more interceptions, because their interception PERCENTAGE is higher.

If you average out the number of Pass Attempts vs sacks per attempt, Compared to how many times Aaron Rodgers throw the ball, At the rate Tebow was getting sacked this year, Tim Tebow was on pace to be sacked over 90 times in a season. So if we sat Tebow in the pocket and let him pass all game and get sacked every 3.8 snaps per completion, would the numbers not prove that with the amount Tebow runs the ball, Tebow should not be getting sacked 1 time for every 4 completions. Tebow was actually sacked more the Tom Brady last season who had about 400 more attempts then Tebow. All that and Tebow only played 2/3 of a season.
If I compare Tebow to this years best QB, he looks like crap. So does Drew Brees, though to a lesser degree, and pretty much everyone else. Seriously, I used Rodgers to "set the curve" when I revised the PRS to drop completion percentage, and if Rodgers is 100 Bree is 77. If Brees is a solid C, Tebow is definitely an F, but who isn't? Brady, Stafford, Romo and (surprisingly) Sanchez (by the skin of his teeth.)

Likewise, comparing Tebows sack frequency to Bradys is ridiculous; NE was something like third in sacks allowed this year. To compare Tebow to Brady we must put him behind Bradys line, where he's sacked MUCH less.

Aside, his 123 yards a game is dead last and almost 30 yards off pace from the next guy Blaine Gabbert, his 3rd down converstion percentage is last at around 23 percent, 72.9 Rating was close to last, Tebow was 32nd in 1st down percentage, 27th in passing TDs with "12". Face it, Tebow was pretty close to the last rated QB in the game right now in terms of stats. 5 out of 7 of his wins came when the team averaged 16 points a game offensively, and only gave up 12 points a game defensively.
Remember how checking Int% makes up for Tebow throwing less than other starters, but looking at totals doesn't? The same applies to yds/game and passing TDs, hence he's 13th in TD% despite being 27th in total TDs.

His rating is 27th, but I guess if 26/34 is "last" so is 27/32. Regardless, PR is mostly a function of completion percentage (the biggest thing wrong with the PRS, but a separate rant. ;)) YPA, TD% and Int% count, but far less. An awful completion percentage makes the resultant PR awful, too, even with a 50 yard TD completion every fourth attempt and NO picks. All that proves is that the PRS (GROSSLY) overvalues completion percentage.

That essentially leaves us with third down conversions, which I agree must improve, as Elway has already said "repeatedly."


Tebow needs improvement in many areas, but when people say manifestly untrue things like "he was ranked last in every statistical category for a QB" I stop listening, because that denotes a narrative undisturbed by facts.

Unsurprisingly, that's about where I'd put him, too (and thanks for the plug. ;)) Not bad for 16 starts, but not nearly good enough for the career starter he isn't yet. The next year or two should tell the tale.
The Undisturbed facts is exactly the stats I am trying to educate you on.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_TOUCHDOWNS&tabSeq=0&season=2011&experience=null&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&qualified=true
I'm familiar with the NFLs stat tables (where do you think I got all the data for my QB spreadsheets?) Comparing how many of Tebows (or anyones) 271 passes were TDs to how many of the NFLs best QBs 502 were is utterly pointless. The PERCENTAGE of TDs for each is an apples to apples comparison that goes:

1 Aaron Rodgers 9.0%
2 Drew Brees 7.0%
3 Tom Brady 6.4%
4 Matthew Stafford 6.2%
5 Tony Romo 5.9%
6 Matt Schaub 5.1%
7 Matt Ryan 5.1%
8 Eli Manning 4.9%
9 Mark Sanchez 4.8%
10 Philip Rivers 4.6%
11 Matt Moore 4.6%
12 Christian Ponder 4.5%
13 Tim Tebow 4.4%
The other 21 QBs with 224+ attempts.

I know the stats, both their meaning and limitations, thus I know saying Tebow is dead last in everything is absurd. It's like saying, "Denver had the most rushing yards, therefore we run better than anyone," while ignoring the fact we were also tied with Houston for most attempts. That just means our 6th ranked 4.8 rushing average is better than their 7th ranked 4.5, which everyone already knew.

The reason wayninja continues cautioning against cherrypicking data is because data can be found to fit ANY curve if it's chosen selectively. I can't just say, "all redheads are serial killers," then PROVE it by pointing to the large number of redheaded serial killers. That ignores the even larger number of murderers who aren't redheads, and the far larger number of redheads who never killed anyone.

Well, he did start regressing and losing games at the last 5 of the season.

Also, any player, coach, and GM will always tell you that third down % and redzone is what makes or breaks a QB. Not his YPA. YPA doesn't mean anything if you aren't completing the IMPORTANT passes. I don't know of anyone that counts YPA as a major category.

If Tebow plays the same or regresses.. I think we look for another QB despite our win-loss record.

Hard to say where he'll be.
Your presence on this site proves you DO know someone who counts YPA as a major category: The National Football League, which uses it as one of the four categories that constitute Passer Rating. It matters; IMHO, the PRS vastly undervalue YPA, TD% AND Int% in comparison to completion percentage (which I consider trivial,) but even the PRS counts YPA as a major category.

Joel
01-27-2012, 09:23 AM
I just like to throw jabs at Ryan because I don't like him for some reason.

BTW, this thread has kind of went retarded. Some people here are arguing that Tebow is right now, the kind of QB he will be for the rest of his NFL career. That's just stupid. He could improve greatly, he could eve get worse, but to use only this season as some kind of measured potential is stupid.

We need to file this away and talk about it again in 2 years or so.
Ultimately, I agree, but the sad truth is that unless Tebow is significantly better next year, whatever offensive help he does or doesn't have, Denver may not be the one doing that evaluation in a couple years. His five year contract would give us the option of keeping him as a backup and making him a long term project, but if a desperate team made us an offer I think we'd take it.

In the interim, firm career forecasts based on this years performance are certainly premature, but this season IS the bulk of the only NFL data on Tebow. ALL forecasts must be made on that basis; we just have to take them with a shaker full of salt because of the relatively small sample size.

MOtorboat
01-27-2012, 10:02 AM
Ultimately, I agree, but the sad truth is that unless Tebow is significantly better next year, whatever offensive help he does or doesn't have, Denver may not be the one doing that evaluation in a couple years. His five year contract would give us the option of keeping him as a backup and making him a long term project, but if a desperate team made us an offer I think we'd take it.

In the interim, firm career forecasts based on this years performance are certainly premature, but this season IS the bulk of the only NFL data on Tebow. ALL forecasts must be made on that basis; we just have to take them with a shaker full of salt because of the relatively small sample size.

I certainly think he deserves at least another season of evaluation, but that said, a full season is hardly "small sample size" anymore. I understand we shouldn't make full career projections on it, but to use baseball as the example (where the term small sample size is mostly used) an entire season is no longer considered a small sample size. Relatively, four or eight games might be considered that which is the equivalent of 40 or 80 games in MLB. Once a full season has been reached, we can start to write the book.

Now, evaluating a quarterback versus a hitter is different, and baseball statistics are much more consistent and projectable, but still...

TXBRONC
01-27-2012, 10:36 AM
But so what? You are cherry picking again. Does it really matter if he uses his arm or his legs to get the yards? If you add all the rushing done by QB's this year, his all purpose yards and TD's jumps him up quite a bit. You are confusing the means and the ends.

I think ultimately quarterbacks win with their arm not their legs. That's not to say his ability to run should be a valuble part but I'm not convinced that him carrying the ball 100 or more times a season serves him or the team in the long run.

wayninja
01-27-2012, 10:36 AM
I certainly think he deserves at least another season of evaluation, but that said, a full season is hardly "small sample size" anymore. I understand we shouldn't make full career projections on it, but to use baseball as the example (where the term small sample size is mostly used) an entire season is no longer considered a small sample size. Relatively, four or eight games might be considered that which is the equivalent of 40 or 80 games in MLB. Once a full season has been reached, we can start to write the book.

Now, evaluating a quarterback versus a hitter is different, and baseball statistics are much more consistent and projectable, but still...

Just to nitpick, he still hasn't completed a single season. I'm not trying to argue he hasn't played the requisite number of games nor am I advocating that he should or should not (or will or will not), but the fact is that he has not begun and ended as the starter for any given season.

I honestly am not sure if that matters, on the one hand, NFL seasons are short so playing 16 games is playing 16 games. On the other had, preparation/practices/team chemistry all factor into how a QB builds and I'm not sure how much the lack of not going into any season as the starter has prohibited growth.


I think ultimately quarterbacks win with their arm not their legs. That's not to say his ability to run should be a valuble part but I'm not convinced that him carrying the ball 100 or more times a season serves him or the team in the long run.

That's not unreasonable. But it is unreasonable to ignore production done with the legs, and impossible to ignore if wins happen with their legs (Jets game).

MOtorboat
01-27-2012, 10:57 AM
Just to nitpick, he still hasn't completed a single season. I'm not trying to argue he hasn't played the requisite number of games nor am I advocating that he should or should not (or will or will not), but the fact is that he has not begun and ended as the starter for any given season.

I honestly am not sure if that matters, on the one hand, NFL seasons are short so playing 16 games is playing 16 games. On the other had, preparation/practices/team chemistry all factor into how a QB builds and I'm not sure how much the lack of not going into any season as the starter has prohibited growth.



That's not unreasonable. But it is unreasonable to ignore production done with the legs, and impossible to ignore if wins happen with their legs (Jets game).

So, in other words, don't fully evaluate the games we've seen already because of another cooked up excuse?

He has played 16 games in the NFL.

wayninja
01-27-2012, 11:20 AM
So, in other words, don't fully evaluate the games we've seen already because of another cooked up excuse?

He has played 16 games in the NFL.

No. You know this isn't what I said. I tried to structure it in precisely that way so you wouldn't respond like this. Guess I didn't build enough clauses into it.

You are being disingenuous at best. Are you really trying to say that being thrown into the end of one season and the middle of another is the best way to grow a young QB? Or that it makes no difference whatsoever?

You can call it an excuse if you like, but it just sounds like sour grapes.

TXBRONC
01-27-2012, 11:37 AM
Just to nitpick, he still hasn't completed a single season. I'm not trying to argue he hasn't played the requisite number of games nor am I advocating that he should or should not (or will or will not), but the fact is that he has not begun and ended as the starter for any given season.

I honestly am not sure if that matters, on the one hand, NFL seasons are short so playing 16 games is playing 16 games. On the other had, preparation/practices/team chemistry all factor into how a QB builds and I'm not sure how much the lack of not going into any season as the starter has prohibited growth.



That's not unreasonable. But it is unreasonable to ignore production done with the legs, and impossible to ignore if wins happen with their legs (Jets game).

I agree you can't ignore that aspect of his game and he can make plays using his legs. But ultimately I see his arm vehicle for making the most impact on a game. The games against Minnesota and Pittsburgh support that notion.

Let me add, from everything I've heard the coaching believes the lockout hurt Tebow's growth. To me that gives him the benefit of the doubt. I don't think that is an excuse I think it gives us understanding of why he is where he right in his development.

NightTerror218
01-27-2012, 12:38 PM
I certainly think he deserves at least another season of evaluation, but that said, a full season is hardly "small sample size" anymore. I understand we shouldn't make full career projections on it, but to use baseball as the example (where the term small sample size is mostly used) an entire season is no longer considered a small sample size. Relatively, four or eight games might be considered that which is the equivalent of 40 or 80 games in MLB. Once a full season has been reached, we can start to write the book.

Now, evaluating a quarterback versus a hitter is different, and baseball statistics are much more consistent and projectable, but still...

I think he should get the first half and then go from there. That will give you enough time to see if he has improved. If it is worse you can then either put in your lower round draft QB or continue with him if playing bad to get best possible draft pick and let him utterly fail. If its good you keep going. But i think EFX will like to see strong improvement next season.

Ravage!!!
01-27-2012, 01:26 PM
I think perhaps you should take it in more than 4 game chunks you cant establish a trend 4 games at a time he had 3 bad games out of 5. the bills game he appeared over confident, the KC game too timid. The final NE game was a collapse by Tebow and everyone else on the team. Maybe the result of an emotionally draining win followed by short week and travel?

also you can't have red zone stats if you don't make it to the red zone, hence the imprtance of YPA. Tebow had all of 20 attempts in the redzone, was 50% with 6 passing TD's 2 INTs and an additional 13 rushing attempts for 5 TD's.

3rd down % is highly dependent upon 3rd and distance. Strangely Tebow completes a higher % of 3rd down passes that are 3rd and long vs. 3rd and short. Don't have an explanation for that. Maybe a result of man coverage + 8 men in the box messing with the short routes?

I agree... its hard to judge a QB on 5 games. Hence why the 5 early games are nothing to make a determination on. A lot of those games were made because of high emotion, great defense and special teams, and teams dropping back into prevent defense. But I said BEFORE Tebow took the starting snap that I would never judge him on the first 4-5 starts of his play (good or bad) because teams haven't had a chance to even see him. It would be the last 4-5 games where we would be able to see what Tim could do against NFL defenses.


So I hear what you are trying to say, but YPA does NOT mean anything. If Tebow is completing passes at 5 yards a clip and hitting third down conversions... no one cares what the YPA is. Results mean everything. I mean, you actually hear people trying to criticize Brady because of his short completions. People tried to attack Gannon because of the dink and dunk.

The reason Tim completes on 3rd and Long is the same reason he completes passes when the opposing team drops back into prevent. They are allowing the short passes so just not to give up the first down. Its usually a zone defense that has HUGE holes left in the underside so that the receiver can catch the short pass, but not get past the first down yardage. Let them catch, make the tackle, don't get PI. Its pretty simple.

If your QB isn't getting into the redzone, then thats something that tells a bunch as well. So again, saying that we can't judge Tebow on red zone production because he's NOT in the redzone is almost throwing up a GIANT red flashing light.

Third down conversions is where the QB makes his money. Tebow had the best rushing attack in the NFL. If a QB is missing passes, or doesn't scare the defense enough to back away from the LoS..you can't blame his VERY LOW 3rd down conversion (last in the NFL?) rate on 3rd and long situations.

YPA just is not a category that is looked upon as being a major determination of the QB play.

Joel
01-27-2012, 01:26 PM
I certainly think he deserves at least another season of evaluation, but that said, a full season is hardly "small sample size" anymore. I understand we shouldn't make full career projections on it, but to use baseball as the example (where the term small sample size is mostly used) an entire season is no longer considered a small sample size. Relatively, four or eight games might be considered that which is the equivalent of 40 or 80 games in MLB. Once a full season has been reached, we can start to write the book.

Now, evaluating a quarterback versus a hitter is different, and baseball statistics are much more consistent and projectable, but still...
I follow baseball so closely I had to look this up to verify it: MLB teams play 162 regular season games, and the NFL 16. If a hitter played every game and the whole team NEVER got on base that'd be 486 at bats a year. If they were less awful and he averaged 4 at bats per game it'd be 648; 5, 810. Tebow had 271 attempts this season, 353 in his career. Those aren't comparable numbers.

When I said, "relatively small sample size," (and note the "relatively") I was speaking purely in terms of math. It's not nothing, but not a great number of attempts for firm conclusions. We can make educated guesses.

I think he should get the first half and then go from there. That will give you enough time to see if he has improved. If it is worse you can then either put in your lower round draft QB or continue with him if playing bad to get best possible draft pick and let him utterly fail. If its good you keep going. But i think EFX will like to see strong improvement next season.
That sounds like a good read, but if he doesn't warm up fast he could pulled by the end of the first month. The goal is the postseason, not being fair to Tebow.

NightTerror218
01-27-2012, 01:39 PM
I follow baseball so closely I had to look this up to verify it: MLB teams play 162 regular season games, and the NFL 16. If a hitter played every game and the whole team NEVER got on base that'd be 486 at bats a year. If they were less awful and he averaged 4 at bats per game it'd be 648; 5, 810. Tebow had 271 attempts this season, 353 in his career. Those aren't comparable numbers.

When I said, "relatively small sample size," (and note the "relatively") I was speaking purely in terms of math. It's not nothing, but not a great number of attempts for firm conclusions. We can make educated guesses.

That sounds like a good read, but if he doesn't warm up fast he could pulled by the end of the first month. The goal is the postseason, not being fair to Tebow.

It is post season. Being fair to Tebow would be to get several games to evaluate him. Because we could have the hardest games in first month (Balt, Pitt, NE, ect.) but wont know until the schedule comes out. I figure as long as he gets a good chunk of games to evaluate whether to stick with him or to look towards next draft.

MOtorboat
01-27-2012, 01:42 PM
I follow baseball so closely I had to look this up to verify it: MLB teams play 162 regular season games, and the NFL 16. If a hitter played every game and the whole team NEVER got on base that'd be 486 at bats a year. If they were less awful and he averaged 4 at bats per game it'd be 648; 5, 810. Tebow had 271 attempts this season, 353 in his career. Those aren't comparable numbers.

When I said, "relatively small sample size," (and note the "relatively") I was speaking purely in terms of math. It's not nothing, but not a great number of attempts for firm conclusions. We can make educated guesses.

That sounds like a good read, but if he doesn't warm up fast he could pulled by the end of the first month. The goal is the postseason, not being fair to Tebow.

The numbers aren't directly comparable, and that wasn't my point.

Joel
01-27-2012, 02:23 PM
I agree... its hard to judge a QB on 5 games. Hence why the 5 early games are nothing to make a determination on. A lot of those games were made because of high emotion, great defense and special teams, and teams dropping back into prevent defense. But I said BEFORE Tebow took the starting snap that I would never judge him on the first 4-5 starts of his play (good or bad) because teams haven't had a chance to even see him. It would be the last 4-5 games where we would be able to see what Tim could do against NFL defenses.
When we only have 16 games spread over 2 seasons it's natural to look for trends in spans of a few games, but I still think it a bad idea. In those last 5 games we faced the #1 and #6 passing Ds plus Bills and Patriots teams that chased him all over our backfield all day (even though the Pats have the leagues 31st defense, but the second time they were on our RUNNERS at the snap, too.) The inconsistencies of youth are one problem with evaluating Tebow, but the other is the dearth of games makes the unique conditions of any one of them loom larger.

So I hear what you are trying to say, but YPA does NOT mean anything. If Tebow is completing passes at 5 yards a clip and hitting third down conversions... no one cares what the YPA is. Results mean everything. I mean, you actually hear people trying to criticize Brady because of his short completions. People tried to attack Gannon because of the dink and dunk.
If he's only getting 5 yards per attempt I care a great deal about his YPA, and not just because I don't want another Orton (though that's a very good reason.) People attacked Gannon because he was a bad QB; dinking and dunking was more a product of that than a cause. It's a great way to inflate completion percentage and thus passer rating en route to a losing season (sound like anyone we know...? ;)) Yet once again, even the Passer Rating System cares about YPA; it just cares a lot more about completion percentage.


The reason Tim completes on 3rd and Long is the same reason he completes passes when the opposing team drops back into prevent. They are allowing the short passes so just not to give up the first down. Its pretty simple.
Makes sense, though it doesn't explain why he manages to hit those short open routes to receivers he never sees, or hits the long ones so often. ;)

If your QB isn't getting into the redzone, then thats something that tells a bunch as well. So again, saying that we can't judge Tebow on red zone production because he's NOT in the redzone is almost throwing up a GIANT red flashing light.
A valid point but, as I noted previously, it's one of the reasons why a high YPA IS a big deal: It gets teams to the red zone regularly without having to complete 70% of their passes.

Third down conversions is where the QB makes his money. Tebow had the best rushing attack in the NFL. If a QB is missing passes, or doesn't scare the defense enough to back away from the LoS..you can't blame his VERY LOW 3rd down conversion (last in the NFL?) rate on 3rd and long situations.
Denver had the most rushing yards because we also had the most attempts; since our rushing AVERAGE was only 6th I don't think we had the best rushing attack. To the extent we did, 660 of our 2632 rushing yards (25%) were Tebows. He can't be blamed for not converting more third downs with all the "help" from our great running attack when a lot of it was Tebow helping himself. Maybe he got tired out rushing for 5.4 yards per carry. :tongue:

YPA just is not a category that is looked upon as being a major determination of the QB play.
You keep saying that and it keeps not being true: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating#NFL

catfish
01-27-2012, 02:29 PM
I agree... its hard to judge a QB on 5 games. Hence why the 5 early games are nothing to make a determination on. A lot of those games were made because of high emotion, great defense and special teams, and teams dropping back into prevent defense. But I said BEFORE Tebow took the starting snap that I would never judge him on the first 4-5 starts of his play (good or bad) because teams haven't had a chance to even see him. It would be the last 4-5 games where we would be able to see what Tim could do against NFL defenses.


So I hear what you are trying to say, but YPA does NOT mean anything. If Tebow is completing passes at 5 yards a clip and hitting third down conversions... no one cares what the YPA is. Results mean everything. I mean, you actually hear people trying to criticize Brady because of his short completions. People tried to attack Gannon because of the dink and dunk.

The reason Tim completes on 3rd and Long is the same reason he completes passes when the opposing team drops back into prevent. They are allowing the short passes so just not to give up the first down. Its pretty simple.

If your QB isn't getting into the redzone, then thats something that tells a bunch as well. So again, saying that we can't judge Tebow on red zone production because he's NOT in the redzone is almost throwing up a GIANT red flashing light.

Third down conversions is where the QB makes his money. Tebow had the best rushing attack in the NFL. If a QB is missing passes, or doesn't scare the defense enough to back away from the LoS..you can't blame his VERY LOW 3rd down conversion (last in the NFL?) rate on 3rd and long situations.

YPA just is not a category that is looked upon as being a major determination of the QB play.

see there is the problem, he doesn't get into the redzone, but his pass to TD ratio is still high. It means to me that the majority of his passes that go for TD come from outside of the redzone. When he is in the redzone he is fairly productive as I pointed out.


On to 3rd down %. Yes Tebow needs to improve, the Broncos were third to last in 3rd down conversion% at 30.8%. That is 66 of 214 attempts. Tebow had 74 3rd down passes for the year, and completed 34 of them( I am unable to find how many of the completions resulted in a first down). Admittedly not good, however I would say it is a little unfair to claim that Tebow is responsible for the atrocious 3rd down % when he made approximately 1/3 of the 3rd down attempts.

edit: I was able to find the # of 3rd down passes that resulted in a 1st down as 16, so of the 34 passes completed on 3rd down 47% moved the chains

16/74 is a 21.6% conversion rate which definately needs to improve, the argument now would be why did the 18 other complete passes not go for a first. Either way that leaves us with 50 conversions out of 140 attempts or a 35% conversion rate when running the ball. Once again I will leave it to others to argue why the rate is what it is. /edit



As to the effect of 3rd down and distance.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d80ae2bf7/article/firstdown-success-is-the-key-to-thirddown-conversions

this article contains a chart showing the conversion rates of third down and distance

of tebows 74 3rd down passes

17 were 3rd and less than 6 or the 40% range

25 were 3rd and 8 -10, or 30% range

18 were 3rd and 11+ or 20% range

so the vast majority of his attempts were in obvious passing situations which have a much lower probability of sucess in that situation and using the number above expecting ANY QB to convert more than say 35% would be asking a lot

as far as dink and dunk offense. Tom Brady is known as a dink and dunk QB, he still is up at the top of YPA with 8.52. YPA almost always corresponds to QB performance. If you want confirmation go sort the nfl stats columns by YPA and see where people fit in

NightTerror218
01-27-2012, 02:34 PM
see ther is the problem, he doesn't get into the redzone, but his pass to TD ration is still high. It means to me that the majority of his passes that go for TD come from outside of the redzone. When he is in the redzone he is fairly productive as I pointed out.


On to 3rd down %. Yes Tebow needs to improve, the Broncos were third to last in 3rd down conversion% at 30.8%. That is 66 of 214 attempts. Tebow had 74 3rd down passes for the year, and completed 34 of them( I am unable to find how many of the completions resulted in a first down). Admittedly not good, however I would say it is a little unfair to claim that Tebow is responsible for the atrocious 3rd down % when he made approximately 1/3 of the 3rd down attempts.

As to the effect of 3rd down and distance.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d80ae2bf7/article/firstdown-success-is-the-key-to-thirddown-conversions

this article contains a chart showing the conversion rates of third down and distance

of tebows 74 3rd down passes

17 were 3rd and less than 6 or the 40% range

25 were 3rd and 8 -10, or 30% range

18 were 3rd and 11+ or 20% range

so the vast majority of his attempts were in obvious passing situations which have a much lower probability of sucess in that situation and using the number above expecting ANY QB to convert more than say 35% would be asking a lot

To add. I noticed that with young WRs, several times they went short of the 1st down marker on passes and would be stopped short a yard short or so. This is easily corrected with more experience.

Joel
01-27-2012, 02:35 PM
It is post season. Being fair to Tebow would be to get several games to evaluate him. Because we could have the hardest games in first month (Balt, Pitt, NE, ect.) but wont know until the schedule comes out. I figure as long as he gets a good chunk of games to evaluate whether to stick with him or to look towards next draft.
I'd like at least another half dozen games to guage where he's at after this offseason, but may not get them if he's not much improved from the start.

The numbers aren't directly comparable, and that wasn't my point.
Your point, I believe, was baseball statisticians have recently decided a full season is a large enough sample for reasonably reliable predictions, so the same should apply to QBs. Since the average hitter gets about TWICE as many at bats per season as Tebow has had attempts in his CAREER I don't think that point is sound. If you want to say we can make reasonably reliable predictions about Tebow after 16 more starts, I've always agreed.

catfish
01-27-2012, 02:39 PM
To add. I noticed that with young WRs, several times they went short of the 1st down marker on passes and would be stopped short a yard short or so. This is easily corrected with more experience.

True, although I feel those were the exception not the rule. I wasn't able to find a stat that stated how many of the 3rd down passes converted the down, but I provided as much info as I could

MOtorboat
01-27-2012, 02:45 PM
I'd like at least another half dozen games to guage where he's at after this offseason, but may not get them if he's not much improved from the start.

Your point, I believe, was baseball statisticians have recently decided a full season is a large enough sample for reasonably reliable predictions, so the same should apply to QBs. Since the average hitter gets about TWICE as many at bats per season as Tebow has had attempts in his CAREER I don't think that point is sound. If you want to say we can make reasonably reliable predictions about Tebow after 16 more starts, I've always agreed.

Your taking a giant leap in logic to get to this conclusion. It had nothing to do with how many at bats Prince Fielder had against how many throws Tim Tebow made. That's obviously not a comparable figure.

Compared to other QUARTERBACKS Tebow has had the same number of throws that others do in a full season, so we should be able to start to understand what he can do, and we can't claim small sample size.

I never meant to compare at bats to pass attempts, that's not even remotely comparable...

catfish
01-27-2012, 02:50 PM
Your taking a giant leap in logic to get to this conclusion. It had nothing to do with how many at bats Prince Fielder had against how many throws Tim Tebow made. That's obviously not a comparable figure.

Compared to other QUARTERBACKS Tebow has had the same number of throws that others do in a full season, so we should be able to start to understand what he can do, and we can't claim small sample size.

I never meant to compare at bats to pass attempts, that's not even remotely comparable...

Acting as mediator I have heard that 700 passes is about what it takes to properly evaluate a nfl QB. That is where the 30 games thing you hear comes from. Less than that and you risk tossing out a prospect before he has completely caught up to the NFL game. Barring off the field issues that is what I would expect for any QB, although I would have preferred that the games were in a row and taking most of the pre-season snaps.

for the record I will say the same thing if they draft Barkeley next year he should get 30 ish games at least, you can't keep discarding QB's every year and be a good team

Joel
01-27-2012, 06:14 PM
Your taking a giant leap in logic to get to this conclusion. It had nothing to do with how many at bats Prince Fielder had against how many throws Tim Tebow made. That's obviously not a comparable figure.

Compared to other QUARTERBACKS Tebow has had the same number of throws that others do in a full season, so we should be able to start to understand what he can do, and we can't claim small sample size.

I never meant to compare at bats to pass attempts, that's not even remotely comparable...
I was merely operating on the basis of the "many in baseball now feel one season is enough to begin making predictions, so it should be enough for football" idea. That doesn't follow, because hitters (and definitely pitchers) face far more in-game situations each season than QBs do. One season may be a large enough sample for baseball, but not football, because football players spend less time on the field each year.

However, in the context of Tebow having as many throws as other QBs do in a season, that doesn't really work either. Tebow barely had enough attempts this year to qualify for the passing title; of the QBs who did, 23 had more 2011 attempts than he's had in his whole career, and only 11 had less--one of which is HIM. :tongue: So, no, I don't think that's enough for an equal comparison. We can make an educated guess based on what he's done per attempt; 350 attempts isn't nothing. But any conclusions are still very much subject to change.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d80ae2bf7/article/firstdown-success-is-the-key-to-thirddown-conversions

this article contains a chart showing the conversion rates of third down and distance

of tebows 74 3rd down passes

17 were 3rd and less than 6 or the 40% range

25 were 3rd and 8 -10, or 30% range

18 were 3rd and 11+ or 20% range

so the vast majority of his attempts were in obvious passing situations which have a much lower probability of sucess in that situation and using the number above expecting ANY QB to convert more than say 35% would be asking a lot

as far as dink and dunk offense. Tom Brady is known as a dink and dunk QB, he still is up at the top of YPA with 8.52. YPA almost always corresponds to QB performance. If you want confirmation go sort the nfl stats columns by YPA and see where people fit in
I must say, now that I've had a chance to read that article I found it very interesting. The observation that third down success flows from first down success isn't novel, but sometimes all the implications aren't recognized. I recall a play by play guy during one of the Pats games (think it was last weekend) saying one of the main ways they achieve "third down success" is by avoiding third down entirely. In particular, he noted Brady averaged 1 sack in every 6 third down attempts this year; considering the Pats only gave up 32 sacks all year, that's a lot. It also tells me that for all the dinking and dunking Brady's still not throwing many passes <6 yards.

catfish
01-27-2012, 06:17 PM
i must say, now that i've had a chance to read that article i found it very interesting. The observation that third down success flows from first down success isn't novel, but sometimes all the implications aren't recognized. I recall a play by play guy during one of the pats games (think it was last weekend) saying one of the main ways they achieve "third down success" is by avoiding third down entirely. In particular, he noted brady averaged 1 sack in every 6 third down attempts this year; considering the pats only gave up 32 sacks all year, that's a lot. It also tells me that for all the dinking and dunking brady's still not throwing many passes <6 yards.

ypa = 8.52,

edit: 66% of his passes ar less than 10 yds in the air. they dont differentiate between a 1 yard pass and a 10 yards so that is as close as I can narrow it down. I still think he is a bit of a dink and dunk guy, but he has the skill to pick which guy is going to take it for 5 more yards, the patriots led the league in YAC by 200yards

Ravage!!!
01-27-2012, 06:21 PM
When we only have 16 games spread over 2 seasons it's natural to look for trends in spans of a few games, but I still think it a bad idea. In those last 5 games we faced the #1 and #6 passing Ds plus Bills and Patriots teams that chased him all over our backfield all day (even though the Pats have the leagues 31st defense, but the second time they were on our RUNNERS at the snap, too.) The inconsistencies of youth are one problem with evaluating Tebow, but the other is the dearth of games makes the unique conditions of any one of them loom larger.
Dearth of games makes them loom larger??? really? Generally speaking, one can see what a player is in 16 games. Sure there are surprises. But it didn't take 16 games to see that Manning was going to be very good, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan... or many of the other good QBs. I've yet to see a passer that was bad coming out of college become a good passer while in the pros.


If he's only getting 5 yards per attempt I care a great deal about his YPA, and not just because I don't want another Orton (though that's a very good reason.) People attacked Gannon because he was a bad QB; dinking and dunking was more a product of that than a cause. It's a great way to inflate completion percentage and thus passer rating en route to a losing season (sound like anyone we know...? ;)) Yet once again, even the Passer Rating System cares about YPA; it just cares a lot more about completion percentage.
For 1, NEVER EVER EVER use the "passer rating" as a way to defend your opinion on whats important of a QB. The passer rating is the dumbest thing in football, and was invented for the PURPOSE of making things "easy" for the majority of fans that could only watch 1 game a week at most (back in the 70s when it was invented for those that had TVs didn't have internet, 24/7 football coverage, and twitter feeds). SO the passer rating is just an absurd number to begin with.

Gannon was NOT a bad QB. He was 3x (in a row) AFC Player of the year, 2 Time All-Pro (not pro-bowl..ALL Pro) and NFL MVP. That includes 3 trips to the AFC Championship and trip to the Super Bowl. If you are going to say someone is a "Bad QB".. then I would think you need to choose someone that didn't obviously prove you wrong with the play on the field. People try to say that Brady is nothing more than a "dink and dunk" QB as well. I laugh at them for saying that, too. Its inaccurate.


Makes sense, though it doesn't explain why he manages to hit those short open routes to receivers he never sees, or hits the long ones so often. ;)
much easier to see a guy standing alone, by himself, in wide open zone coverages that are meant to leave the short pass wide open.


A valid point but, as I noted previously, it's one of the reasons why a high YPA IS a big deal: It gets teams to the red zone regularly without having to complete 70% of their passes.
No. YPA means what you average PER attempt. It doesn't mean you can't take shots down the field. It doesn't mean you don't have pass plays that extend pass the 10 yrd marker. But YPA isn't a category that is the MAJOR emphasis when any coach, GM, or even QB themselves talk about. Its completion %, third down conversions, and red zone %.


Denver had the most rushing yards because we also had the most attempts; since our rushing AVERAGE was only 6th I don't think we had the best rushing attack. To the extent we did, 660 of our 2632 rushing yards (25%) were Tebows. He can't be blamed for not converting more third downs with all the "help" from our great running attack when a lot of it was Tebow helping himself. Maybe he got tired out rushing for 5.4 yards per carry. :tongue:
Hah, maybe. But you always get tied down with the numbers. I don't care the reasons we were the #1 rushing attack, or the 6th rushing attack. DOesn't make a damn bit of difference to the point. Either way, we certainly can't say that the reason for Tim's terrible 3rd down conversion % is because we always left him with LONG 3rd down attempts. People (well, top) tried to give the same excuse for Orton. Wasn't accurate with him, and certainly not accurate with TT.


You keep saying that and it keeps not being true: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating#NFL

Dude, you just used a wiki page to prove to me about the passer rating. Thats TWO huge strikes against any point you want to make (one more and you lose your man card! :beer:). The passer rating and the QBR are both jokes. They might be nice to use as a starting point for a discussion, but are completely useless to end one or to believe that the passer rating has ANY validity to it. Hell, the passer rating STILL uses 1971 league averages within the formula to determine the "passer rating" number. Thats why I believes its really stupid when people (whether its writers or commentators or people on the net/conversation) compare the passer ratings of today to QBs of yesterday...because the entire league has changed and the average numbers for the passers go WAY UP, but they are still compared to the "averages" of 1971. Ridiculous.

NightTerror218
01-27-2012, 06:23 PM
ypa = 8.52,

Gronkowski drags guys for extra yards all the time. Welker is quick and gets many after the catch too. Just saying FWIW

Ravage!!!
01-27-2012, 06:30 PM
Acting as mediator I have heard that 700 passes is about what it takes to properly evaluate a nfl QB. That is where the 30 games thing you hear comes from. Less than that and you risk tossing out a prospect before he has completely caught up to the NFL game. Barring off the field issues that is what I would expect for any QB, although I would have preferred that the games were in a row and taking most of the pre-season snaps.

for the record I will say the same thing if they draft Barkeley next year he should get 30 ish games at least, you can't keep discarding QB's every year and be a good team

I don't think 2 years is too much to ask. But there is something to the history that you aren't taking into consideration... (in this instance).

One being that Tebow showed he could not run a professional offense at the practices... so much so, that Orton won the starting job in just a matter of hours. It was THAT obvious. The coaches themselves have stated, since then and recently, that if Tim had to run a normal professional offense, Tim would be SCREWED. Those are things that have to be considered when the coaches are judging your QB. This wasn't Tim's first year in the NFL. But he still is one that shows he would be "screwed" if they try to run a professional passing offense. Which means that the starting Point of Tim was low low... and teams dont' have the time to take a low low QB, and teach him things he should have learned/been taught the 4-5 years they were in college.

So I don't think ANYONE continues to draft QBs in teh first round after only giving a single season...but there are other circumstances that have to be considered other than just the number of minutes (or passes thrown) in games. You have to EARN the passes in games. They can't simply be given purely so you can "evaluate" them.

NightTerror218
01-27-2012, 06:37 PM
I don't think 2 years is too much to ask. But there is something to the history that you aren't taking into consideration... (in this instance).

One being that Tebow showed he could not run a professional offense at the practices... so much so, that Orton won the starting job in just a matter of hours. It was THAT obvious. The coaches themselves have stated, since then and recently, that if Tim had to run a normal professional offense, Tim would be SCREWED. Those are things that have to be considered when the coaches are judging your QB. This wasn't Tim's first year in the NFL. But he still is one that shows he would be "screwed" if they try to run a professional passing offense. Which means that the starting Point of Tim was low low... and teams dont' have the time to take a low low QB, and teach him things he should have learned/been taught the 4-5 years they were in college.

So I don't think ANYONE continues to draft QBs in teh first round after only giving a single season...but there are other circumstances that have to be considered other than just the number of minutes (or passes thrown) in games. You have to EARN the passes in games. They can't simply be given purely so you can "evaluate" them.

You are so hung up on that "Screwed line" Fox said after 3 weeks of Tim starting. He turned around and said he was wrong about that and Tim COULD run an NFL offense. He is a young player yadda yadda make him sound good and crap.

But enough of that ******* quote. I might as well quote him saying "Tim is our guy"

catfish
01-27-2012, 06:48 PM
I don't think 2 years is too much to ask. But there is something to the history that you aren't taking into consideration... (in this instance).

One being that Tebow showed he could not run a professional offense at the practices... so much so, that Orton won the starting job in just a matter of hours. It was THAT obvious. The coaches themselves have stated, since then and recently, that if Tim had to run a normal professional offense, Tim would be SCREWED. Those are things that have to be considered when the coaches are judging your QB. This wasn't Tim's first year in the NFL. But he still is one that shows he would be "screwed" if they try to run a professional passing offense. Which means that the starting Point of Tim was low low... and teams dont' have the time to take a low low QB, and teach him things he should have learned/been taught the 4-5 years they were in college.

So I don't think ANYONE continues to draft QBs in teh first round after only giving a single season...but there are other circumstances that have to be considered other than just the number of minutes (or passes thrown) in games. You have to EARN the passes in games. They can't simply be given purely so you can "evaluate" them.

So the guy with basically no game time experience lost the job to the incumbent starter under contract with 7 years under his belt? STOP THE PRESSES!!!

If the coaches were so convinced that Tebow couldn't run an offense why did they put him in after 5 games? Why not play Quinn, why not put Webber in if the rumors out of camp were true? If they could tell that Tebow was out of his depth why play him at all, just say he isnt ready and keep him on the bench. I don't buy that they bowed to fan pressure because if that is the case this team is doomed, so they must have seen something. They could have analyzed him just as well next year as this(and probably should have waited IMO). There is really no reason to play him unless they thought he could win.

As far as that quote from fox, the vibe I took out of the interview was actually very positive about Tebow, he spent 2 minutes talking up Tebow and said one soundbyte that got blown up in to a big deal, it actually bothered him so much that he admitted to losing sleep over saying it, something he claims he never does.

Broncos Mtnman
01-27-2012, 07:11 PM
change positions. . .

:coffee:

bcbronc
01-27-2012, 07:57 PM
My problem with YPA is what the stat leaves out when it's applied to what actually happens on the field.

Take a hypothetical team that averages 10ypa with a comp% of .500 and runs a very predictable offense: run on 1st down, pass on 2nd and 3rd. By the stats, that team scores a TD every possession.

In reality, it's much different. You complete 1 of every 2 passes long term, but of course you're not actually going to complete 1 of every 2 passes. Sometimes you'll complete 2 or 3 in a row, sometimes you'll miss 3 or 4 straight. Problem is, every time you miss 2 in a row, you're punting.

And just completing 2 in a row doesn't average things out by producing points. This team runs one play, a 20 yard sideline fade route with big beast receivers that catch 50% of them. So you complete 2 without punting, that gets you 40 yards. If you started at your own 20, you're not even in field goal range. The law of averages is going to give you two misses per 3-play sequence just about every possession before you get into the endzone, unless you start with short fields.

When you segregate YPA from comp% both stats basically become useless.




If the coaches were so convinced that Tebow couldn't run an offense why did they put him in after 5 games? Why not play Quinn, why not put Webber in if the rumors out of camp were true? If they could tell that Tebow was out of his depth why play him at all, just say he isnt ready and keep him on the bench.

Because it was supposed to be a deep QB class, we were on pace for a ~4 win season, and a lot of assets were invested in #15. Once the plug was pulled on Orton, EFX needed to get a look at Tebow so they had a clearer idea on what they had and what they needed going into the draft.

catfish
01-27-2012, 08:11 PM
My problem with YPA is what the stat leaves out when it's applied to what actually happens on the field.

Take a hypothetical team that averages 10ypa with a comp% of .500 and runs a very predictable offense: run on 1st down, pass on 2nd and 3rd. By the stats, that team scores a TD every possession.

In reality, it's much different. You complete 1 of every 2 passes long term, but of course you're not actually going to complete 1 of every 2 passes. Sometimes you'll complete 2 or 3 in a row, sometimes you'll miss 3 or 4 straight. Problem is, every time you miss 2 in a row, you're punting.

And just completing 2 in a row doesn't average things out by producing points. This team runs one play, a 20 yard sideline fade route with big beast receivers that catch 50% of them. So you complete 2 without punting, that gets you 40 yards. If you started at your own 20, you're not even in field goal range. The law of averages is going to give you two misses per 3-play sequence just about every possession before you get into the endzone, unless you start with short fields.

When you segregate YPA from comp% both stats basically become useless.




Because it was supposed to be a deep QB class, we were on pace for a ~4 win season, and a lot of assets were invested in #15. Once the plug was pulled on Orton, EFX needed to get a look at Tebow so they had a clearer idea on what they had and what they needed going into the draft.

I agree, the two cant be segregated, but keep in mind the difference between 50% and 60% is 2 passes per game at the rate tebow throws. If the YPA doesnt go up the % doesn't really matter much. I would rather have Tebow at 50% and 8YPA than 60% and 6YPA

edit: for the record I would much prefer 60% at 8 ypa, but this is just my opinion on rank of importance

bcbronc
01-27-2012, 08:44 PM
I agree, the two cant be segregated, but keep in mind the difference between 50% and 60% is 2 passes per game at the rate tebow throws. If the YPA doesnt go up the % doesn't really matter much. I would rather have Tebow at 50% and 8YPA than 60% and 6YPA

edit: for the record I would much prefer 60% at 8 ypa, but this is just my opinion on rank of importance

If those two passes both lead to first downs, that's at least two more sets of downs to get more pass attempts in. Or just to rest the defense or change field position.

I do agree with you to a point, assuming a bare minimum floor is hit in comp%. I mean Josh Freeman completed 62.8% of his passes with a YPA of 6.5, while Eli Manning went 61% for 8.4 ypa. No body is going to say Freeman had the better season because he completed a higher % of his passes, and the YPA most would agree better indicates their level of play.

But end of the day, sort NFL.com by comp% or YPA, and with a couple exceptions the top 10 QBs are the top 10 QBs.

catfish
01-27-2012, 09:00 PM
If those two passes both lead to first downs, that's at least two more sets of downs to get more pass attempts in. Or just to rest the defense or change field position.

I do agree with you to a point, assuming a bare minimum floor is hit in comp%. I mean Josh Freeman completed 62.8% of his passes with a YPA of 6.5, while Eli Manning went 61% for 8.4 ypa. No body is going to say Freeman had the better season because he completed a higher % of his passes, and the YPA most would agree better indicates their level of play.

But end of the day, sort NFL.com by comp% or YPA, and with a couple exceptions the top 10 QBs are the top 10 QBs.

agreed, I think we are basically on the same page

bcbronc
01-27-2012, 09:01 PM
agreed, I think we are basically on the same page

I'm changing my position then.






:beer:

catfish
01-27-2012, 09:03 PM
I'm changing my position then.






:beer:

definately, in that case your position is dumb and anyone who agrees with it is dumb(ignore that i agreed with it last post) ;):D

iLands
01-27-2012, 09:50 PM
So...

Catfish hooked me up with this:

http://eye-on-football.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/view/22475988/2?mcctag=Tracking%20Tebow

I no longer need to watch games and write down pass plays in detail. Now everyone can look for themselves.

Everyone - enjoy.

Courtesy of catfish!

Joel
01-28-2012, 09:19 AM
Dearth of games makes them loom larger??? really? Generally speaking, one can see what a player is in 16 games. Sure there are surprises. But it didn't take 16 games to see that Manning was going to be very good, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan... or many of the other good QBs. I've yet to see a passer that was bad coming out of college become a good passer while in the pros.
If you're lucky, 16 games will generally give you a ballpark to predict what a QB will be, later. For every Peyton Manning there are a dozen Ryan Leafs. For every Brady there are a dozen Cassels. Rodgers spent four years on the bench and people STILL aren't sure whether Ryan will be great or a bust. If the first four years of Steve Youngs career had been like Ryans he'd have retired a Buccaneer; instead they traded him to San Francisco as a "bust" and drafted that years Heisman winner: Testaverde. Sixteen starts is enough for an educated guess, and the less a QB passes in those starts the less educated the guess is.


For 1, NEVER EVER EVER use the "passer rating" as a way to defend your opinion on whats important of a QB. The passer rating is the dumbest thing in football, and was invented for the PURPOSE of making things "easy" for the majority of fans that could only watch 1 game a week at most (back in the 70s when it was invented for those that had TVs didn't have internet, 24/7 football coverage, and twitter feeds). SO the passer rating is just an absurd number to begin with.
You said you don't know anyone who considers YPA a major passing category, and I pointed to the fact the NFL considers it exactly that, because it's one of the only four they consider for Passer Rating. I have my own (strong) objections to it, but it was NOT invented to make things easy for fans. If it were, they would have kept the means of calculating it such a deep dark secret for so long (for the first 20 years of the PRS you had to order a special book of charts from the NFL to do it.) They would've stuck with total yards, completion percentage or even (GASP!) YPA, all of which they had previously used to identify the "best" passers.

The Passer Rating they devised instead was a hybrid of those multiple metrics, each biased in different ways, based on the ill conceived notion that incorporating ALL biases would somehow produce an objective system. Same thing we see in so many political talkshows today: Bring on spokesmen from the Klan and Nation of Islam, and their opposing extremism will produce a "fair and balanced" perspective we're expected to accept as an objective accurate representation of America.

What we GOT was a system that disproportionately weights completion percentage more than any other stat. I'm not saying (though many do) Bill Walsh set out to build an offense that made his crappy teams look great, but debuting in the first years of the "new" PRS he could not have done a better job if he HAD tried. The PRS declares completion percentage the ne plus ultra of QB stats, and the West Coast Offense inflates completion percentage by design, so it was a perfect storm: People who believed the WCO flawlessly perfect had only to point to the new fangled PRS to "prove" that. It was a self fulfilling prophecy, of course, but most people didn't (and most still don't) know that, precisely because the NFL did NOT design the PRS to be easy for fans.

My point was not that the PRS is a good evaluator (it's not,) but that since it uses YPA among its four categories, you DEFINITELY know someone who considers that a major passing category: The NFL. In fact,

From 1950-1959 YPA was the ONLY stat the NFL used to rank passers!


Gannon was NOT a bad QB. He was 3x (in a row) AFC Player of the year, 2 Time All-Pro (not pro-bowl..ALL Pro) and NFL MVP. That includes 3 trips to the AFC Championship and trip to the Super Bowl. If you are going to say someone is a "Bad QB".. then I would think you need to choose someone that didn't obviously prove you wrong with the play on the field. People try to say that Brady is nothing more than a "dink and dunk" QB as well. I laugh at them for saying that, too. Its inaccurate.
Gannon was not Brady. He played with 4 teams in 16 years and, apart from a 3 year span when the RAIDERS (i.e. not Gannon) were great, was never better than average, rarely even that. When a guy dinks and dunks to Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and James Jett, that tells me a LOT about his passing skills, none of it good.


much easier to see a guy standing alone, by himself, in wide open zone coverages that are meant to leave the short pass wide open.
Logical.


No. YPA means what you average PER attempt. It doesn't mean you can't take shots down the field. It doesn't mean you don't have pass plays that extend pass the 10 yrd marker. But YPA isn't a category that is the MAJOR emphasis when any coach, GM, or even QB themselves talk about. Its completion %, third down conversions, and red zone %.
As previously explained, anyone who thinks completion percentage is important should love the NFL Passer Rating System of which it is the cornerstone; anyone who loves one but hates the other has a poor grasp of (at least) one of them. I agree third down conversions are important; based on Elways comments THAT may be the most important stat for Tebow to improve next year (right now it ain't good.) Red zone % is nice, but more important as an offensive stat than a passing stat; any team that gets most of its red zone TDs on the ground is dangerously imbalanced. If it's easier to throw a ball 3 yards than carry it, you're doing something wrong.

Yards per attempt is yards per attempt; pretty straightforward. If a team only complets half its passes but averages 10 YPA, those completions are averaging 20 yards apiece. They're getting farther downfield than a team completing 70% of its passes for 7 YPA. Guess which is more likely to pick up 3rd and 15? All else being equal (i.e. treating means as medians even though I know that's often not the case,) on 3rd and 15 the first team has a 50% chance of completing a 20 yard pass and the other team has a 70% chance of completing a 10 yard pass. Which scenario would you prefer? It only takes 2 or 3 of those 20 yarders to reach the red zone, but twice as many of 10 yarders, and missing 2 in a row still means a punt.


Hah, maybe. But you always get tied down with the numbers. I don't care the reasons we were the #1 rushing attack, or the 6th rushing attack. DOesn't make a damn bit of difference to the point. Either way, we certainly can't say that the reason for Tim's terrible 3rd down conversion % is because we always left him with LONG 3rd down attempts. People (well, top) tried to give the same excuse for Orton. Wasn't accurate with him, and certainly not accurate with TT.
Actually, yes, that's precisely what we can say when we led the League in total yards AND attempts; all it "proves" is we had a better rushing average than Houston, which had less total yards on as many attempts. If our rushing attack were THAT good we wouldn't need Tebow to pass on 3rd and 5, because we could run for it. Terrell Davis did it all the time, but he had Nalen, Schlereth, Zimmerman, Jones and Habib/Neil blocking for him, plus Howard Griffith. The team with a HoF RB, HoF tackle and 3 Pro Bowlers on the line had a great rushing attack; this one just runs a lot, with the benefit of a QB and RB who break tackles and move piles.

The reason I keep focusing on numbers is because they are the best way to tell whether our conclusions are based on hard facts or wishful thinking. In this case, the numbers say Tebow had 17 attempts on 3rd and <6 and 57 on 3rd and >6. That's more than 3 times as many so, yes, we were putting him in 3rd and long a LOT. He has to convert them anyway if he's going to be an NFL starter, but let's not pretend it's shooting fish in a barrel.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13200/tim-tebow

You can't say lots of 3rd down completions don't matter because it was always 3rd and long so defences conceded the short ball, THEN turn around and say he was seldom in 3rd and long. Which is it, man?


Dude, you just used a wiki page to prove to me about the passer rating. Thats TWO huge strikes against any point you want to make (one more and you lose your man card! :beer:). The passer rating and the QBR are both jokes. They might be nice to use as a starting point for a discussion, but are completely useless to end one or to believe that the passer rating has ANY validity to it. Hell, the passer rating STILL uses 1971 league averages within the formula to determine the "passer rating" number. Thats why I believes its really stupid when people (whether its writers or commentators or people on the net/conversation) compare the passer ratings of today to QBs of yesterday...because the entire league has changed and the average numbers for the passers go WAY UP, but they are still compared to the "averages" of 1971. Ridiculous.
Wikipedia is perfectly reliable for topics 1) widely/well understood and 2) not in dispute. The PRs validity may be disputed, but how to calculate it is not; it's basic math not subject to edit wars.

Again, I've already covered the PRs (biggest) flaw; I could get into ignoring rushing and overrating Ints, but since I've already posted a thread explaining the PRS and what's wrong with it, linking is easier:
http://www.broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=323875

YPA, Int% and TD% haven't changed much.

In 1971, the top YPA was 8.9 (Staubach), TD% 7.2 (Griese) and Int% 1.9 (Staubach.)

In 2001, the top YPA was 7.9 (Warner), TD% 6.6 (Warner) and Int% 1.6 (Gannon, during "his" 4 good years.)

Yeah, those pitifully low 1971 numbers are really making it easy for modern QBs. Funny how the 2001 leader only (barely) beat the 1971 leader in 1/3 categories.

The BIG difference is completion percentage; the most accurate passer in 1971 was Virgil Carter* with 62.2%, making him obviously MUCH better than those bums Staubach and Griese, who only led the League in trivial things like YPA, TD% and Int%. The highest completion percentage in 2001 was 68.7 (Warner again.) That's 6.5% more completions for the League leader, and is the single biggest reason PRs are so much higher now.

That doesn't mean QBs have gotten better, it just means the WCO has made short passing popular, in no small part because WCO fans can point to higher PRs as "prove" it's best. It's a bit like saying, "Ford makes the best Mustangs," but they get away with it because most people don't know that.





*Virgil Carter IS a VERY important NFL figure, but not for much of what he did on the field. First off, he and Robert Machol co-authored this Operations Research article http://www.stanford.edu/class/stats50/handouts/541.full.pdf
that introduced computerized statistical analysis to football in 1970, and gave us the critical concept of evaluating 1st and 10 at any yard line in terms of "expected points." Just as importantly, he led the NFL in completion percentage in 1971 because of a new offense designed around him that year, the creation of the Bengals receivers coach (who was really their OC,) a fellow by the name of Bill Walsh.

That's right: In addition to the math savvy on which ALL COMPUTERIZED NFL STAT ANALYSIS IS BASED, Virgil Carters unique (i.e. limited) skill set is the reason the West Coast Offense exists.

Joel
01-28-2012, 11:40 AM
My problem with YPA is what the stat leaves out when it's applied to what actually happens on the field.

Take a hypothetical team that averages 10ypa with a comp% of .500 and runs a very predictable offense: run on 1st down, pass on 2nd and 3rd. By the stats, that team scores a TD every possession.

In reality, it's much different. You complete 1 of every 2 passes long term, but of course you're not actually going to complete 1 of every 2 passes. Sometimes you'll complete 2 or 3 in a row, sometimes you'll miss 3 or 4 straight. Problem is, every time you miss 2 in a row, you're punting.

And just completing 2 in a row doesn't average things out by producing points. This team runs one play, a 20 yard sideline fade route with big beast receivers that catch 50% of them. So you complete 2 without punting, that gets you 40 yards. If you started at your own 20, you're not even in field goal range. The law of averages is going to give you two misses per 3-play sequence just about every possession before you get into the endzone, unless you start with short fields.

When you segregate YPA from comp% both stats basically become useless.

Because it was supposed to be a deep QB class, we were on pace for a ~4 win season, and a lot of assets were invested in #15. Once the plug was pulled on Orton, EFX needed to get a look at Tebow so they had a clearer idea on what they had and what they needed going into the draft.
All else being equal, all else is equal. A team that approaches every series as run, pass, pass always punts the first time it misses two passes in a row, whether its overall completion percentage is 9 or 99. The difference is that a low YPA means it has to avoid those 2 incompletes many times to score. Let's try some examples with this years NFL averages:

Rushing YPA: 4, Comp%: 60, YPA: 6.5 (6.592475589) Those aren't the precise values, but the difference is never >0.1 for any of them. YPC is actually the relevant stat for these examples, but it's just YPA/Comp% (which is 1.131880734 INCHES<11, so that's what I'll use. ;))

Say it's 1st and 10 on your 20 and on first down you always run for the NFL average 4 YPA, bringing up 2nd and a long 6. There's a 60% chance you'll complete an 11 yd pass on 2nd and 6; 1st and 10 at your 35. If you don't, there's STILL a 60% chance you'll hit that 11 yd pass on 3rd and 6; same result. So unless you miss BOTH (40%*40%=16%) you'll get your first down--but you're still only on your 35.

To reach THEIR 35 (a 52 yd FG) you must avoid that 16% on 2nd and 6 at your 24 AND your 39 AND their 46. That's 84%*84%*84%, or 59%. To reach their red zone you must avoid it one MORE time, which drops to just under 50%. You've got just under a 42% chance of reaching their 5 and a 35% chance of throwing a TD pass on 2nd OR 3rd and G from their 1 (without rounding it would be more like their 2.)

Now, let's tweak the numbers a bit; say your completion percentage drops and your YPA rises by 1/12th to 55% and 7.3 (raising your YPC to 13.4; I'll call that 13.5 since it's not really 13 OR 14.)

1st and 10 at your 20, 4 yard run; 2nd and 6 at your 24. There's a 45%*45% chance (just over 20%) chance you miss both your next passes, and an 80% chance you complete one for 1st and 10 at your 38.5. To reach THEIR 27.5 (a 45 yd FG) you must avoid that 20% on 2nd and 6 at your 24 AND your 41.5 AND their 41. That's 80%*80%*80%, or 51%. To reach their red zone you must avoid it one MORE time, which drops to just under 40%. You've got just over a 32% chance of another completion--but averaging 0.8 more YPA means it's 1st and G at the 10 instead of 1st and 10 at the 20. A completion's not 1st and G at the 5: It's a TD.

So the difference between your chance of a TD with 60% completions and 6.5 YPA vs. 55% completions and 7.3 YPA is about 3% in favor of more completions. Raise YPA any more and that slim advantage vanishes.

Here's where it gets really interesting: Lower completion percentage and raise YPA by the same proportionate amounts again (50% and 8.15.) Now you're getting 16.3 YPC but missing every other one. 1st and 10 at your 20 goes to 2nd and 6 at your 24, with a 75% chance of a first down at your 40. With Prater in Mile High it only takes one more pass (56%) to be in range for a 57 yarder; otherwise reaching the 20 (42%) puts you in FG range AND the red zone. Hitting one more pass (32%) gets you a TD. Bumping YPA a little more doesn't make that easier, but makes that 57 yard FG progressively shorter.

So what have we learned? Well, reducing completion percentage and increasing YPA by proportionate amounts takes our chance of reaching FG range from 59% to 51% to 56% (all but the second are VERY long FGs) and our chance of a TD from 35% to 32% to 32%. That's not a big argument for one stat over the other, but here's the kicker: Each time we raised YPA, we needed one less first down to score both a FG AND TD. We punt EVERY time we miss 2 straight passes outside FG range (whether we complete 90% or 9% overall.) High YPA is highly desirable because it reduces how often two consecutive incompletes will force a punt.

Since all else is NEVER equal I prefer hitting a 40 yarder 40-50% of the time to get from my 30 to theirs (FG range) over hitting 5 yarders 60-70% of the time to get from my 30 to 2nd, 3rd or 4th and 5 at my 35.

Northman
01-28-2012, 11:42 AM
A return to the playoffs.

Medford Bronco
01-28-2012, 12:25 PM
He could get better and us not make the playoffs.

I want to see at least 55-60% completion and a lot less hesitation.

Also I want to see very little of the option crap. That is not going to work over a long period of time in the NFL and will eventually get him hurt.

I wish him well

FlyByU
01-28-2012, 04:08 PM
9 or more wins. I can care less about what he looks like passing as long as he gets the job done and gets W's instead of L's. If McCoy is still the OC It will be real hard for this Offense to win games he has to be fired and a OC that has avg talent at least to design plays for Tebow style ball. McCoy cannot work with TT because he doesn't know how to.