Football Gameplan's AFC Divisional Preview Video - DEN v NE

[EmDiggy]

Broncos vs Patriots Video Preview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTWNgc-4tcc)

Good afternoon Broncos fans! Good luck this week!

Em

[TXBRONC]

Thanks once again Em.

Definitely Denver has to do a better job of hanging onto the rock. You're probably going to be one of the few if not the only analyst out there picking Denver to win this game. If Denver can play like they did against the Steelers I like their chances. Unlike last week I hope you're right this week. :beer:

[PatriotsGuy]

Thanks once again Em.

Definitely Denver has to do a better job of hanging onto the rock. You're probably going to be one of the few if not the only analyst out there picking Denver to win this game. If Denver can play like they did against the Steelers I like their chances. Unlike last week I hope you're right this week. :beer:

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2011_19early.php

[CoachChaz]

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2011_19early.php

Interesting take

[TXBRONC]

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2011_19early.php

Like I said Em is going to be one of the few analysts who will give Denver a chance to win. Anyway I looking forward to this rematch. :beer:

[Joel]

I usually agree with most of your analysis, Em, but not this time. Our defensive gameplan against NE is simple: We don't have one. An always weak offense with a one legged QB, backup runner and no center just scored 17 second half points on us. The D seemed to remember how to blitz in the 4th (DEFENSIVE lines rarely wear down an OFFENSIVE lines, but they were a Mile High against natives,) and they did make the critical end of regulation stop, but were generally quite soft. If Pitts backup center doesn't snap the ball 20 yards behind Roethlisberger on their last possession of the first half we might have never had the chance to win in OT.

Now consider that New England scored nearly twice as many points on us in that same Mile High air (which makes sense, given their offense is about twice as good as Pitts right now.) This time they're at home. LAST time Gronkowski and Hernandez were uncovered on so many deep catches I thought I was watching the Vikings against us again. New Englands first TD was a pass to Chad Johnson, who was also uncovered because our safeties were once again nowhere to be found. I think that was the game where Carter got a sack, presumably because the coaches decided that if he wasn't going to cover anyone anyway, he might as well blitz. Their line won't let Doom and Miller get to Brady any more than last time, and our secondary won't be able to cover their receivers any more, so our sole hope is to only give Brady the ball for a minute or two at the end of each half.

That's the other place we disagree: The Pats NEVER stopped our running game last time. They kept us just out of FG range on our only 3rd quarter drive, then scored a TD at the start of the 4th quarter to make it 34-16. That forced us into hurry up, but taking our running attack out of the game isn't really STOPPING it. We essentially gained 250 yards in THREE quarters, but the score, not the D, prevented running for more.

That, and not letting NE strip the ball (IIRC they're something like +17 in turnovers this season) is our only shot. Oh, and SOMEBODY block Rob Ninkovich this time; that dude was everywhere last month. We should take the long ball against loaded boxes (refusing to pass until 3rd and long was a big reason we didn't get much needed points on that 3rd quarter drive,) but shouldn't make our living there. Even when it works, quick scores give the ball back to NE without much rest for our D or fatigue for theirs. When it's open, we shouldn't hesitate to lob a bomb that puts us in scoring position, but THEN 7 running plays that culminate in a FG is BETTER in some ways than an immediate 30 yard TD pass if it leaves 30 seconds until half time, and the lowers the risk of sack fumbles (NE didn't make Pitts mistake of holding their LBs in Tebows running lanes, and won't this week.)

Our best chance is giving Brady, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Johnson and Branch the ball only 5 or 6 times. Then just a couple stops can keep the game under 30 points, perhaps under 20, a game we can win. Our second year QB and second year WRs might win a shootout with NE in a few years, but right now they just don't have the experience and practice to score on EVERY drive the way New England can against our secondary.

Keep an eye out for Stevan Ridley, whose averaged just over a yard more than Green-Ellis in the regular season. If Lance Ball isn't working, don't be surprised to see Jeremiah Johnson catching balls and relieving McGahee.

[TXBRONC]

I usually agree with most of your analysis, Em, but not this time. Our defensive gameplan against NE is simple: We don't have one. An always weak offense with a one legged QB, backup runner and no center just scored 17 second half points on us. The D seemed to remember how to blitz in the 4th (DEFENSIVE lines rarely wear down an OFFENSIVE lines, but they were a Mile High against natives,) and they did make the critical end of regulation stop, but were generally quite soft. If Pitts backup center doesn't snap the ball 20 yards behind Roethlisberger on their last possession of the first half we might have never had the chance to win in OT.

Now consider that New England scored nearly twice as many points on us in that same Mile High air (which makes sense, given their offense is about twice as good as Pitts right now.) This time they're at home. LAST time Gronkowski and Hernandez were uncovered on so many deep catches I thought I was watching the Vikings against us again. New Englands first TD was a pass to Chad Johnson, who was also uncovered because our safeties were once again nowhere to be found. I think that was the game where Carter got a sack, presumably because the coaches decided that if he wasn't going to cover anyone anyway, he might as well blitz. Their line won't let Doom and Miller get to Brady any more than last time, and our secondary won't be able to cover their receivers any more, so our sole hope is to only give Brady the ball for a minute or two at the end of each half.

That's the other place we disagree: The Pats NEVER stopped our running game last time. They kept us just out of FG range on our only 3rd quarter drive, then scored a TD at the start of the 4th quarter to make it 34-16. That forced us into hurry up, but taking our running attack out of the game isn't really STOPPING it. We essentially gained 250 yards in THREE quarters, but the score, not the D, prevented running for more.

That, and not letting NE strip the ball (IIRC they're something like +17 in turnovers this season) is our only shot. Oh, and SOMEBODY block Rob Ninkovich this time; that dude was everywhere last month. We should take the long ball against loaded boxes (refusing to pass until 3rd and long was a big reason we didn't get much needed points on that 3rd quarter drive,) but shouldn't make our living there. Even when it works, quick scores give the ball back to NE without much rest for our D or fatigue for theirs. When it's open, we shouldn't hesitate to lob a bomb that puts us in scoring position, but THEN 7 running plays that culminate in a FG is BETTER in some ways than an immediate 30 yard TD pass if it leaves 30 seconds until half time, and the lowers the risk of sack fumbles (NE didn't make Pitts mistake of holding their LBs in Tebows running lanes, and won't this week.)

Our best chance is giving Brady, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Johnson and Branch the ball only 5 or 6 times. Then just a couple stops can keep the game under 30 points, perhaps under 20, a game we can win. Our second year QB and second year WRs might win a shootout with NE in a few years, but right now they just don't have the experience and practice to score on EVERY drive the way New England can against our secondary.

Keep an eye out for Stevan Ridley, whose averaged just over a yard more than Green-Ellis in the regular season. If Lance Ball isn't working, don't be surprised to see Jeremiah Johnson catching balls and relieving McGahee.

I think you're over simplifying Joel and and missing some very important points. First of all one legged or not Roethlisberger is a good quarterback with a crap load of playoff experience so it's not surprising that the Steelers made a game of it. Second, lets not forget like a good veteran team they took advantage of some breaks. That non call fumble early in the 3rd quarter was big. That gave them momentum and help them rally. Third, against the number one defense in league Denver ended up similar offensive production to the Steelers.

Against the New England what killed us was the turnovers. Also I don't buy the idea that it will be all that simple to shut down Miller and Dumervil. Before saying they pretty much shut them out the last time lets not forget that was when Miller injury was still fresh. I don't think it's fair to assume Denver's secondary wont be able to cover New England's receivers. Denver's secondary held their own against one of the fastest and arguably the best receiving corps in the game today. Denver's game plan in the last game was to neutralize Gronkowski and Welker which they did. New England can be beaten. I'm not guaranteeing victory but they are a far cry from invincible.

[Joel]

I think you're over simplifying Joel and and missing some very important points. First of all one legged or not Roethlisberger is a good quarterback with a crap load of playoff experience so it's not surprising that the Steelers made a game of it. Second, lets not forget like a good veteran team they took advantage of some breaks. That non call fumble early in the 3rd quarter was big. That gave them momentum and help them rally. Third, against the number one defense in league Denver ended up similar offensive production to the Steelers.
Yes, we did, even if nearly all of it was in the second quarter, but our 2nd year offense (whose average age was 25.6 before Hochstein replaced Kuper) lacks the experience to do that every week. LeBeau keeping his LBs in Tebows running lanes so he had to stay in the pocket and throw helped immensely, too. Since he then shredded Pitts secondary Belichick probably won't make the same mistake; again, he didn't LAST time.

But while the first half against their beat up offense wasn't bad, Pitts four second half drives were pretty awful for our D:

87 yd TD drive
61 yd FG drive
55 yd TD drive
12 yd drive, turnover on downs

Pitt's offense is anemic even when healthy; they have one good receiver, but we have Champ, so being down to a backup RB and C to assist a limping QB, that should've been it. We did make the important stop at the end (if you only make one, that's the one to pick) but otherwise Pitt scored every time. The bogus fumble may have rallied them, but they scored 20 points because our D didn't stop them. New Englands offense is MUCH better than Pitts, enough so they're the #1 seed despite the #31 defence; Pitts offense is so bad they couldn't match that even with the #1 defence. And that was when far healtheir than Sunday.

Against the New England what killed us was the turnovers. Also I don't buy the idea that it will be all that simple to shut down Miller and Dumervil. Before saying they pretty much shut them out the last time lets not forget that was when Miller injury was still fresh. I don't think it's fair to assume Denver's secondary wont be able to cover New England's receivers. Denver's secondary held their own against one of the fastest and arguably the best receiving corps in the game today. Denver's game plan in the last game was to neutralize Gronkowski and Welker which they did. New England can be beaten. I'm not guaranteeing victory but they are a far cry from invincible.
They put 41 points on us. Sure, 13 were on our end of the field, and our D kept one of those fumbles out of the endzone (the clock kept the other out,) but their other 7 drives got 4 TDs. Champ neutralized Welker well (for Welker) but Gronkowski was only limited; he caught 4 of the 5 passes thrown at him, one for 38 yards. A wide open Hernandez was just an easier target until/unless someone bothered to cover him, and no one ever did. Our two rookie safeties may BECOME good, but suck now, and #2 CB Andre Goodman is as good as he'll ever be: Not very. They were torched last month and will be again; only difference is NE has Deion Branch again.

That might not be so bad if we could get to Brady (I always prefer coverage to blitzes, but since we clearly can't cover that's not an option.) Unfortunately, the only difference THERE between the last time people insisted Miller and Doom would destroy one of the Leagues top pass blocking lines is that it looks like NE will have Sebastian Vollmer back, too, though Doom didn't give his rookie replacement much trouble last time. If Vollmer goes out and/or Mankins sprained MCL is still tender, we MIGHT have a rush, but otherwise don't count on it.

Pound the rock, keep Brady off the field. Against THAT offense and defence, with OUR offence and defence, it's the only thing that makes sense.

[rjent]

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2011_19early.php


RECAP: I'm sure you'll all be shocked by this, but the Broncos are my favorite play of the week. In fact, I like them to win straight up. Again. Here's why: :eyebrows:

[ShooterJM]

I got the Broncos +15! Pretty happy about it.