cmc0605
01-08-2012, 10:48 PM
So, after a very exciting game against the Steelers, we go to Foxboro next week to face the New England Patriots. Needless to say, they are pretty good. I wanted to make this thread to set up a starting point for discussion.
Denver faces a number of challenges that will only make the game harder than the one they played against the Pats back in week 15. For one, it's on the road this time, so they don't have the luxury of making an east coast team play at altitude; also, it's on saturday giving them one less day to prepare, while the Pats had a bye week to rest. Further, the Pats aren't quite as banged up as they were when we played them. They have Chung, Branch, Spikes, etc that sat out of the last contest. Meanwhile, we will probably be without Eric Decker and Brian Dawkins. And as impressive as the win was against the Steelers, we lucked out with them missing a lot of key players. I don't think there are any noteworthy Patriots missing in action this week.
The Denver defense will not be able to stop Brady. That's not because Denvers D is particularly bad, although they have been worse over the time Dawkins has been missing, but because it's a reality that Brady has too many weapons. Last time it was Aaron Hernandez. But it could just as well we Gronkowski, Welker, and you have guys like Branch or Ochocinco that could make plays here and there. Green-Ellis could be good against a suspect Denver front 4, and the Pats like screen passes that Denver doesn't tend to defend too well. Denver only has one elite defensive back, and Brady doesn't tend to test Bailey too much, but anyone else on the field is free pickings. Goodman isn't too bad, but we just don't have the depth to cover everyone. Last game, Von Miller was neutralized because of the 4, 5 WR sets. I expect much the same. In short, the Pats will put up at least 30 points barring any crazy weather or Tom Brady injury. Timely turnovers and forcing FGs rather than touchdowns will be very important in this game.
But don't be too eager to think this means a must-doom scenario for Denver. After all, the Pats don't have a good defense themselves, and in the last contest much of the game turned into an arena football like saga where Tebow passed in big chunks and McGahee/Ball ran at will. This must be a game where Tebow "pulls the trigger" as we won't be able to keep pace with the Pats in a predominant run-based gameplan. Tebow has thrown rather well in these situations, against the Pats, Vikings, Steelers, etc. Denver also has a talent in someone named Demaryius Thomas who not too many people know about yet (but Belichick will!), but he's secretly been playing as good as any WR in the league in the later parts of this season, with the possible exception of Megatron. I fully suspect he will be in the pro bowl next year. With Decker out, the Pats might be able to afford to give him a bit of extra attention, meaning guys like Royal, Fells, Rosario, Willis, etc will need to step up. Royal and Fells did tonight against Pittsburgh. Denver also has one of the better o lines in the league, so I'm not too worried about protection.
In the last game, the Broncos beat the broncos just as much, if not moreso, than the Pats beat the Broncos. Several "dumb" fumbles, one by Ball and one by Tebow, and then a muffed special teams play by Quan Cosby (who is thankfully no longer a Bronco) put the Pats in excellent position to take us over after I thought we played a superior 1st quarter. That isn't to say the outcome of the game would have been different, but it certainly would have been much tigher at the very least. If Denver can eliminate those mistakes, in addition to various ill-timed penalties they have a habit of getting, this might be a lot closer than what many people will probably be expecting.
Because Ed Lorentz came up with this elegant notion of 'chaos theory,' I can't really tell you with much confidence what the weather will be like a week from now, though it's pretty safe to assume it will be cold. Snow could actually work in the Broncos favor since it would help to neutralize the high powered attack of Brady, but I don't think they are as well adjusted to pure cold as the Pats are (not because Colorado doesn't get cold, but because the Pats have a veteran team that has played through more of that than many of the key guys on Denvers side)
Denver faces a number of challenges that will only make the game harder than the one they played against the Pats back in week 15. For one, it's on the road this time, so they don't have the luxury of making an east coast team play at altitude; also, it's on saturday giving them one less day to prepare, while the Pats had a bye week to rest. Further, the Pats aren't quite as banged up as they were when we played them. They have Chung, Branch, Spikes, etc that sat out of the last contest. Meanwhile, we will probably be without Eric Decker and Brian Dawkins. And as impressive as the win was against the Steelers, we lucked out with them missing a lot of key players. I don't think there are any noteworthy Patriots missing in action this week.
The Denver defense will not be able to stop Brady. That's not because Denvers D is particularly bad, although they have been worse over the time Dawkins has been missing, but because it's a reality that Brady has too many weapons. Last time it was Aaron Hernandez. But it could just as well we Gronkowski, Welker, and you have guys like Branch or Ochocinco that could make plays here and there. Green-Ellis could be good against a suspect Denver front 4, and the Pats like screen passes that Denver doesn't tend to defend too well. Denver only has one elite defensive back, and Brady doesn't tend to test Bailey too much, but anyone else on the field is free pickings. Goodman isn't too bad, but we just don't have the depth to cover everyone. Last game, Von Miller was neutralized because of the 4, 5 WR sets. I expect much the same. In short, the Pats will put up at least 30 points barring any crazy weather or Tom Brady injury. Timely turnovers and forcing FGs rather than touchdowns will be very important in this game.
But don't be too eager to think this means a must-doom scenario for Denver. After all, the Pats don't have a good defense themselves, and in the last contest much of the game turned into an arena football like saga where Tebow passed in big chunks and McGahee/Ball ran at will. This must be a game where Tebow "pulls the trigger" as we won't be able to keep pace with the Pats in a predominant run-based gameplan. Tebow has thrown rather well in these situations, against the Pats, Vikings, Steelers, etc. Denver also has a talent in someone named Demaryius Thomas who not too many people know about yet (but Belichick will!), but he's secretly been playing as good as any WR in the league in the later parts of this season, with the possible exception of Megatron. I fully suspect he will be in the pro bowl next year. With Decker out, the Pats might be able to afford to give him a bit of extra attention, meaning guys like Royal, Fells, Rosario, Willis, etc will need to step up. Royal and Fells did tonight against Pittsburgh. Denver also has one of the better o lines in the league, so I'm not too worried about protection.
In the last game, the Broncos beat the broncos just as much, if not moreso, than the Pats beat the Broncos. Several "dumb" fumbles, one by Ball and one by Tebow, and then a muffed special teams play by Quan Cosby (who is thankfully no longer a Bronco) put the Pats in excellent position to take us over after I thought we played a superior 1st quarter. That isn't to say the outcome of the game would have been different, but it certainly would have been much tigher at the very least. If Denver can eliminate those mistakes, in addition to various ill-timed penalties they have a habit of getting, this might be a lot closer than what many people will probably be expecting.
Because Ed Lorentz came up with this elegant notion of 'chaos theory,' I can't really tell you with much confidence what the weather will be like a week from now, though it's pretty safe to assume it will be cold. Snow could actually work in the Broncos favor since it would help to neutralize the high powered attack of Brady, but I don't think they are as well adjusted to pure cold as the Pats are (not because Colorado doesn't get cold, but because the Pats have a veteran team that has played through more of that than many of the key guys on Denvers side)