11 Game Audition Rating

[MasterShake]

Well, the coaches, analysts, and fans all gave Tebow an 11 game audition and I think its time to write down how we all felt about it. Do it however you like, be it one word or a manifesto.

I'm going to give his stats for each game and a grade, then an overall rating. My overall rating is not an average of my grades, just how I rate him overall this season. (Note these stats are from NFL.com and only include passing TDs):


@ MIA 13/27 161 Yards 2 TD 0 INT W 18-15 Grade C-

VS DET 18/39 172 Yards 1 TD 1 INT L 10-45 Grade D

@ OAK 10/21 124 Yards 2 TD 0 INT W 38-24 Grade B+

@ KC 2/8 69 Yards 1 TD 0 INT W 17-10 Grade B

vs NJY 9/20 104 Yards 1 TD 0 INT W 17-13 Grade B

@ SD 9/18 143 Yards 1 TD 0 INT W 16-13 Grade A-

@ MIN 10/15 202 Yards 2 TD 0 INT W 35-32 Grade A

vs CHI 21/40 236 Yards 1 TD 1 INT W 13-10 Grade B+

vs NE 11/22 194 Yards 0 TD 0 INT L 23-41 Grade C-

@ BUF 13/29 185 Yards 1 TD 3 INT L 40-14 Grade D-

vs KC 6/22 60 Yards 0 TD 1 INT L 3-7 Grade F

Overall Grade - C
I'll be honest I was a little taken back by how poorly he opened up in Miami and finished against Kansas City. Looking back to his three starts in his first season he seemed like he regressed in those games compared to those. Looking back at my grading, its strange how there appears to be a bell curve in performance starting with the Oakland game and finally tapering off against New England. It almost seems to coincide with his confidence level.

I think his best game of the year by far was against Minnesota. He just looked like a normal NFL Qb for most of that game and was able to use his unique abilities to make some BIG plays (that pass to D Thomas for the long TD on a scramble should be in anyones Top 10).

I just hope that since a lot of the hoopla has died down surrounding him that he can just focus on football and the game this Sunday.

Perhaps the most frustrating thing for me is that I really do like him as a player, but just as he seemed to be getting some swagger he got knocked back to Earth real quick. The jury is still out for me unfortunately, and I will withold a lot of my judgments until I see him after a full offseason. There will be no excuses after next season, and I hope he has not hit his cieling yet.

[BroncoStud]

I agree exactly with Mastershake.

[vettesplus]

i would have to give him a c+ would of been higher if he had a passing game, but gotta look at who he has, to throw the ball to...decker??:lol: royal:lol: and the other no names... give him a few quality receivers and he just might have a chance with the right guidance....

[NightTrainLayne]

I would actually give him a B for the New England game as well, but a C seems right overall.

[Northman]

I think you gave him a fair grade. Maybe i would give him a C- but overall i think what you did was a fair assessment. Would of been nice for him to finish the season a high note but i think your right, he lost a lot of that swagger he had initially.

[MasterShake]

I think you gave him a fair grade. Maybe i would give him a C- but overall i think what you did was a fair assessment. Would of been nice for him to finish the season a high note but i think your right, he lost a lot of that swagger he had initially.

It seemed just when "Tebowmania" was reaching a crescendo, he had a few bad games then a few awful ones. I think it may have been of all his support actually crushing him. Going into this weekends game I think we are right back where we want to be mentally - under the radar and underestimated.

I hope!

[NightTrainLayne]

It seemed just when "Tebowmania" was reaching a crescendo, he had a few bad games then a few awful ones. I think it may have been of all his support actually crushing him. Going into this weekends game I think we are right back where we want to be mentally - under the radar and underestimated.

I hope!

I think it's a good possibility that he has been pressing too hard all throughout the week.

Last week Phil Simms was going on and on about his work ethic, and how he throws 2-300 balls before and after practice, and wouldn't be surprised if he threw 200 before the game on Sunday.

Well. .. .that's probably too much.

Back in High School I was on the golf team, and I would consitently score worse toward the end of a round.

My coach pointed out that I was warming up on the practice range prior to the round with at least ten balls with each club. Then, from watching me, noted that I was taking about 3 practice swings for every swing. . .

Turns out I was taking almost 300 swings per round, when assuming a par round and no practice swings you'd take somewhere around 40. (Obviously 40 is the opposite extreme)

Basically, I was tiring myself out.

I don't think Tebow is "tired out" physically, but all of that HAS to take a mental toll.

I find myself thinking that if I was John Fox, i'd tell Tebow to "take it easy" this week, and cut out the extra throwing before and after practice, and just sling it come game-time. Don't let that pressure wear on him all week.

[jhildebrand]

C+ early
C middle
D+ last 3

Overall I would give him a C-

[rjent]

I would like to rate him high in the beginning maybe an A- or a B+.
The KC game was an F to a D. Pretty bad. There are a lot of other problems with the team, and maybe it is the opposing defenses dialing in what the Broncos are bringing to the Offense, but an over all grade, in my mind for a rookie (I know, I know) would be a C+ or a B-. He has to do better next year. I think he will. :2thumbs:

[SOCALORADO.]

Tebow- D+
Prater- A+
Elway- B+
Fox and Co A++

[Dreadnought]

I'm with layne - I'd rate him higher for the NE game, but other than that I agree with Shake almost exactly. Final grade C+. I want to see more, which is not how I felt about Kyle Orton.

[Elevation inc]

i have seen enough to give him a shot next year, and not enough to say he is the answer......pretty simple really.......just like i aint seen near enough good lately to say DT/Decker/royal/Willis/Fells/Walton/Beadles/Franklin should be our future either

[NightTerror218]

Well, the coaches, analysts, and fans all gave Tebow an 11 game audition and I think its time to write down how we all felt about it. Do it however you like, be it one word or a manifesto.

I'm going to give his stats for each game and a grade, then an overall rating. My overall rating is not an average of my grades, just how I rate him overall this season. (Note these stats are from NFL.com and only include passing TDs):


I'll be honest I was a little taken back by how poorly he opened up in Miami and finished against Kansas City. Looking back to his three starts in his first season he seemed like he regressed in those games compared to those. Looking back at my grading, its strange how there appears to be a bell curve in performance starting with the Oakland game and finally tapering off against New England. It almost seems to coincide with his confidence level.

I think his best game of the year by far was against Minnesota. He just looked like a normal NFL Qb for most of that game and was able to use his unique abilities to make some BIG plays (that pass to D Thomas for the long TD on a scramble should be in anyones Top 10).

I just hope that since a lot of the hoopla has died down surrounding him that he can just focus on football and the game this Sunday.

Perhaps the most frustrating thing for me is that I really do like him as a player, but just as he seemed to be getting some swagger he got knocked back to Earth real quick. The jury is still out for me unfortunately, and I will withold a lot of my judgments until I see him after a full offseason. There will be no excuses after next season, and I hope he has not hit his cieling yet.

Can you also put up what ranking the defense was.

[NightTerror218]

If would give him a C overall. He played well against weaker secondaries no doubt. But he also struggled when the OL was being dominated. I would rate him a B- against NE, that was Brady taking ownership of the Defense and offense not keeping up.

If he was a journeyman QB I would prob have him at a D but since its his 2nd season a C.

[G_Money]

Agreed. C- ish rating. Since I still consider it his rookie year, I'm not crushed that he hasn't reached the heights I want for him. Next year after a full offseason's worth of work plus an entire year to get the gameplan enacted, we'll see.

If it's still in the C range that's not gonna cut it. He's got to get significantly better (and as I've said, better playcalling especially on pass plays will help).

I expect him to get better. We've GOT to have our receivers make catches, though. In a game with 50 passes, 6 drops isn't a killer. In a game with 20 passes it's an abominable percentage.

I like the kid. I like his heart even if I'm not overly fond of his passing capabilities at this time. I like the way the team responds to him.

But he'd better learn at the feet of Elway, Fassel, whoever all offseason. Learning at the feet of McCoy is not working. Right now he seems afraid to run, since he's supposed to be throwing it, but also afraid to throw since he's not supposed to turn the ball over so he can't take risks.

Which naturally means he's been turning the ball over the last few weeks. Can't play tentatively in this league. If he's gonna throw it, then do it with authority. Plays like the Decker pass into the endzone after he faked the bubble screen in the flat were indicative of what I want to see from him.

And when he runs it, then he needs to do THAT with a purpose again too. No more wishy-washy plays. Throw it like you mean it, and if you can't, then run it like you mean it.

That's what I want this weekend, and also what I want next season.

~G

[ShooterJM]

I'm with layne - I'd rate him higher for the NE game, but other than that I agree with Shake almost exactly. Final grade C+. I want to see more, which is not how I felt about Kyle Orton.

Agree. I was impressed with the NE game.

[BORDERLINE]

11 games SMH, Tebow get's that and 3 last year so a little under one season under his belt. Has the team in the playoffs because he helped them win the division, but because of his last 3 games we should dump him? Bring in competition?

Let's get him a legit TE and a speedy back plus an offseason with the coaches and the asses his year.

But since you want to rate his 11 games this year I would say a average C. His comebacks put him up too A+ but his last 3 games and Miami/Lions game where F's. SO it averages out. We know he can throw he did it last year as a rookie i'm sure it's in him I just don't know why he can't show that again. What's the difference? The world may never know

[catfish]

I think the NE grade should be higher, 8.82 ypa is pretty damn good. I feel a C is fair based on the timing of the step back

[dunk7]

The book is out on Tebow...Keep him in the pocket and he's doomed to fail. Last 3 games has CLEARLY demonstrated that (though I think we saw glimpses in almost every game) and I hate to say it but I think we'll see a 4th this weekend.

If I told you, without knowing the player, you had a second year QB with a QB rating of 72.9 (ranked just above Sexy Rexy), averages 124 pass yards per game, and he's the guaranteed starter next season, I doubt anyone would be fine with that.

[weazel]

the Minny game fooled me but I can see clearly now... the Broncos need a QB bad

[NightTerror218]

good thing fans dont make the decisions and being in the playoffs and having a non losing record will mean more to EFX then the stats of season. They also understand the fact they have a young QB who needs work. Tebow will still be starting QB next year and will have to make big strides in off season/TC to keep that role.

[G_Money]

If I told you, without knowing the player, you had a second year QB with a QB rating of 72.9 (ranked just above Sexy Rexy), averages 124 pass yards per game, and he's the guaranteed starter next season, I doubt anyone would be fine with that.

Drew Brees, 2nd year playing (3rd actual year in the league) : 2-9 record, 191 ypg passing, 67.5 rating, more INTs than TDs.

Steve McNair, first full starting year (3rd year in the league): 8-8 record, 166 ypg passing, 70.4 rating, 1 more TD than INT (52% comp rate, btw).

Sure, without names they have terrible lines and no future.

Sometimes names are important. Some raw but talented players do improve.

The call is whether Tebow is more Jared Lorenzen than Steve McNair. I lean toward McNair, so his numbers aren't scaring me - yet.

~G

[NightTerror218]

Drew Brees, 2nd year playing (3rd actual year in the league) : 2-9 record, 191 ypg passing, 67.5 rating, more INTs than TDs.

Steve McNair, first full starting year (3rd year in the league): 8-8 record, 166 ypg passing, 70.4 rating, 1 more TD than INT (52% comp rate, btw).

Sure, without names they have terrible lines and no future.

Sometimes names are important. Some raw but talented players do improve.

The call is whether Tebow is more Jared Lorenzen than Steve McNair. I lean toward McNair, so his numbers aren't scaring me - yet.

~G

People only see the stats they want and get hung up on others. They dont see a young QB. They see the Bronco QB who should be up to par with rest of league.

[elsid13]

He is statical below average (C grade).

So last night after a heated "discussion" on the mane, I did some quick and dirty statical analysis. I ran the numbers to compare all QB completion percentage for the last 5 year (2011 to 2006 season). Of the 193 qualified QB data points (QB with over 200 throws) Tebow ranks dead last on completion percentage of 46.5%. 2009 Russell is the next QB with comp rate at 48.8%. Football Outsiders (ESPN Insider) also posted similar analysis back to 2000 just looking completion percentage and only Aklie Smith and Mike McMahon were close, both were out of the league after the threw in 44% to 47% range.

I then looked at the mean comp rate over the same 5 years which is 60.7% and STDEV is +/-4.7505.

So Tebow is outside 1 STDEV on the Bell curve on the negative side.

I only looked at the last 5 years because he playing under similar rules and facing similar football defenses.

[catfish]

He is statical below average (C grade).

So last night after a heated "discussion" on the mane, I did some quick and dirty statical analysis. I ran the numbers to compare all QB completion percentage for the last 5 year (2011 to 2006 season). Of the 193 qualified QB data points (QB with over 200 throws) Tebow ranks dead last on completion percentage of 46.5%. 2009 Russell is the next QB with comp rate at 48.8%. Football Outsiders (ESPN Insider) also posted similar analysis back to 2000 just looking completion percentage and only Aklie Smith and Mike McMahon were close, both were out of the league after the threw in 44% to 47% range.

I then looked at the mean comp rate over the same 5 years which is 60.7% and STDEV is +/-4.7505.

So Tebow is outside 1 STDEV on the Bell curve on the negative side.

I only looked at the last 5 years because he playing under similar rules and facing similar football defenses.

article on why completion % is a misleading stat from profootballfocus.com

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/03/22/stat-sheet-misconceptions-completion-percentage/

[elsid13]

article on why completion % is a misleading stat from profootballfocus.com

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/03/22/stat-sheet-misconceptions-completion-percentage/

If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.

[NameUsedBefore]

When Tebow took the drooping, 1-4 reins of a team developing a loser's mentality with the meat of the schedule just ahead yet, we weren't talking about the playoffs.

That's my rating.

[catfish]

If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.

using standard deviation of a worthless stat doesn't show anyting, use a stat that matter and show the deviation

[G_Money]

If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.

As I said somewhere else, if you normalize our passing offense to have the same # of short throws that every other offense in the NFL has, Tebow's completion % goes up six and a half points.

That's your standard deviation. Tim is inaccurate, but by forcing him to throw passes that are by definition harder to complete and having the lowest # of "cheap" completion opportunities in football (ten yards and under), his completion problems are magnified.

Tim should be a 52 or 53 % completion guy for the year. If we just fixed our short-passing game this offseason we'd improve his performance numbers tremendously without him having to do a whole lot of growing.

Which is why I have hope for this offense for next year.

~G

[MOtorboat]

When Tebow took the drooping, 1-4 reins of a team developing a loser's mentality with the meat of the schedule just ahead yet, we weren't talking about the playoffs.

That's my rating.

The only quarterback in Broncos uniform to beat a playoff team this season was Kyle Orton.

The six game stretch was fun, but it's come crashing down, and much of it lies on the fact that Tebow isn't a very good quarterback right now. I wish my eyes saw something different than what elsid's statistical analysis shows, but they don't.

It's not just three bad games, quarterbackwise, it's been one decent game, two or so slightly below average games and eight bad games.

Overall, I'd give him a C-, because of the wins, but they feel like anamolies, more than the norm.

[NameUsedBefore]

The only quarterback in Broncos uniform to beat a playoff team this season was Kyle Orton.

The six game stretch was fun, but it's come crashing down, and much of it lies on the fact that Tebow isn't a very good quarterback right now. I wish my eyes saw something different than what elsid's statistical analysis shows, but they don't.

It's not just three bad games, quarterbackwise, it's been one decent game, two or so slightly below average games and eight bad games.

Overall, I'd give him a C-, because of the wins, but they feel like anamolies, more than the norm.

Statistical analysis is probably the least valuable way to assess a young QB.

[MOtorboat]

Statistical analysis is probably the least valuable way to assess a young QB.

That's why I brought up the part about watching the game.

[NightTrainLayne]

What other playoff teams is Orton going to beat with this year's Broncos team?

[catfish]

That's why I brought up the part about watching the game.

I think C- is fair as well, nothing outside the C range in my mind, but C- to C+ could all be argued effectively

[NameUsedBefore]

That's why I brought up the part about watching the game.

Well, I've seen Tebow make every throw in the book, steel himself in high pressure situations, and win games when it was asked of him. I've watched a lot of young QBs fold like lawn chairs in similar situations and utterly flame out on bad squads. I believe the Broncos are a very inexperienced, sometimes untalented team. The least talented team in the division, certainly. And I think what Tebow has done is extremely impressive. People always want more, though. I am reminded of when the Broncos burned out with Cutler. People complained then, too, as if 40+ points a game wasn't good enough. Mere contention for the playoffs is as impressive now as it was then. Except this time we are in. When we totally shouldn't be. That's enough for me and a young QB looking warm and cold in this offense won't unseat from that position.

[MOtorboat]

What other playoff teams is Orton going to beat with this year's Broncos team?

The only playoff team Denver beat was Cincinnati.

[catfish]

Well, I've seen Tebow make every throw in the book, steel himself in high pressure situations, and win games when it was asked of him. I've watched a lot of young QBs fold like lawn chairs in similar situations and utterly flame out on bad squads. I believe the Broncos are a very inexperienced, sometimes untalented team. The least talented team in the division, certainly. And I think what Tebow has done is extremely impressive. People always want more, though. I am reminded of when the Broncos burned out with Cutler. People complained then, too, as if 40+ points a game wasn't good enough. Mere contention for the playoffs is as impressive now as it was then. Except this time we are in. When we totally shouldn't be. That's enough for me and a young QB looking warm and cold in this offense won't unseat from that position.

That is your opinion and it is valid, just as MO has his opinion and it is equally valid, lets please have 1 thread that people can just state their thoughts without it turning into a big deal. I haven't seen a single really truly outlandish stance here

[NightTerror218]

I think C- is fair as well, nothing outside the C range in my mind, but C- to C+ could all be argued effectively

If he has good game against Steelers (45+%, no turnoevers and good reads) and we win I will give him B-

[catfish]

If he has good game against Steelers (45+%, no turnoevers and good reads) and we win I will give him B-

lol no grading before the final huh?

[MOtorboat]

Well, I've seen Tebow make every throw in the book, steel himself in high pressure situations, and win games when it was asked of him. I've watched a lot of young QBs fold like lawn chairs in similar situations and utterly flame out on bad squads. I believe the Broncos are a very inexperienced, sometimes untalented team. The least talented team in the division, certainly. And I think what Tebow has done is extremely impressive. People always want more, though. I am reminded of when the Broncos burned out with Cutler. People complained then, too, as if 40+ points a game wasn't good enough. Mere contention for the playoffs is as impressive now as it was then. Except this time we are in. When we totally shouldn't be. That's enough for me and a young QB looking warm and cold in this offense won't unseat from that position.

Every throw in the book? You and I are watching different games.

[NightTerror218]

lol no grading before the final huh?

Why grade him when the biggest test is coming up Sunday. Like watching porn before a hot chick comes over. Little premature.

[MasterShake]

Why grade him when the biggest test is coming up Sunday. Like watching porn before a hot chick comes over. Little premature.

Don't you do that to not be premature, or has There Something About Mary failed me in life lessons again?

[dunk7]

Every throw in the book? You and I are watching different games.

Well, he is technically right...he completes about 1 out of 10, 15+ yard out routes.

[BroncoJoe]

Agreed. C- ish rating. Since I still consider it his rookie year, I'm not crushed that he hasn't reached the heights I want for him. Next year after a full offseason's worth of work plus an entire year to get the gameplan enacted, we'll see.

If it's still in the C range that's not gonna cut it. He's got to get significantly better (and as I've said, better playcalling especially on pass plays will help).

I expect him to get better. We've GOT to have our receivers make catches, though. In a game with 50 passes, 6 drops isn't a killer. In a game with 20 passes it's an abominable percentage.

I like the kid. I like his heart even if I'm not overly fond of his passing capabilities at this time. I like the way the team responds to him.

But he'd better learn at the feet of Elway, Fassel, whoever all offseason. Learning at the feet of McCoy is not working. Right now he seems afraid to run, since he's supposed to be throwing it, but also afraid to throw since he's not supposed to turn the ball over so he can't take risks.

Which naturally means he's been turning the ball over the last few weeks. Can't play tentatively in this league. If he's gonna throw it, then do it with authority. Plays like the Decker pass into the endzone after he faked the bubble screen in the flat were indicative of what I want to see from him.

And when he runs it, then he needs to do THAT with a purpose again too. No more wishy-washy plays. Throw it like you mean it, and if you can't, then run it like you mean it.

That's what I want this weekend, and also what I want next season.

~G

Absolutely perfect analysis, as usual.

[dunk7]

Drew Brees, 2nd year playing (3rd actual year in the league) : 2-9 record, 191 ypg passing, 67.5 rating, more INTs than TDs.

Steve McNair, first full starting year (3rd year in the league): 8-8 record, 166 ypg passing, 70.4 rating, 1 more TD than INT (52% comp rate, btw).

Sure, without names they have terrible lines and no future.

Sometimes names are important. Some raw but talented players do improve.

The call is whether Tebow is more Jared Lorenzen than Steve McNair. I lean toward McNair, so his numbers aren't scaring me - yet.

~G

Good retort but what did the Chargers do after that bad season by Brees...Went out and drafted a QB in the first round. I'm just saying that I'll be very disappointed if we go into next season with Tebow, Quinn and some project 7th rounder just because we got really lucky in 6 games this season.

[Northman]

He is statical below average (C grade).

So last night after a heated "discussion" on the mane, I did some quick and dirty statical analysis. I ran the numbers to compare all QB completion percentage for the last 5 year (2011 to 2006 season). Of the 193 qualified QB data points (QB with over 200 throws) Tebow ranks dead last on completion percentage of 46.5%. 2009 Russell is the next QB with comp rate at 48.8%. Football Outsiders (ESPN Insider) also posted similar analysis back to 2000 just looking completion percentage and only Aklie Smith and Mike McMahon were close, both were out of the league after the threw in 44% to 47% range.

I then looked at the mean comp rate over the same 5 years which is 60.7% and STDEV is +/-4.7505.

So Tebow is outside 1 STDEV on the Bell curve on the negative side.

I only looked at the last 5 years because he playing under similar rules and facing similar football defenses.


Pretty interesting but only further makes me think he wont be the answer here. Unfortuantely, as Clay says, he's done enough to warrant the team keeping him another year at least but i think he will need to have a good game vs Pitt to keep the FO from keeping the job open at the beginning of next season.

[Northman]

That is your opinion and it is valid, just as MO has his opinion and it is equally valid, lets please have 1 thread that people can just state their thoughts without it turning into a big deal. I haven't seen a single really truly outlandish stance here

Great post.

[dunk7]

using standard deviation of a worthless stat doesn't show anyting, use a stat that matter and show the deviation

hahaha...completion percentage is a worthless stat? Let me know what stat you'd like to use? How about yards per attempt. He was above Curtis Painter in that stat at 26th in the league.

[BroncoJoe]

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?

[Northman]

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?


Well, the issue about college is a valid one Joe. At the college level he isnt facing 11 allstars on other other side of the field. He may be facing 4-5 future NFL players tops while playing at college. So when he gets to the NFL the game is not only faster but the talent level is far superior not only in coverage but in pass rush, etc. I mean, JMac, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, all of them did very well in college and all of them knew how to pass in college. Once they reach the NFL though its a whole different animal.

[tomjonesrocks]

I'll be very disappointed if we go into next season with Tebow, Quinn and some project 7th rounder just because we got really lucky in 6 games this season.

I'd be completely fine with it. Because of the wins, the marquee QBs are going to be off the board and Flynn's not coming here--this team doesn't pay anyone. There are still huge, truly inexcusable holes all over this roster.

I'd be fine with Denver using all of next year's picks doing other things. Outside of LB and kickers, it would be hard to argue against any position selection.

I personally still see the team as years away from being a true playoff contender. Other than Von Miller, this team really didn't fill many holes in the last draft IMO. The output of our secondary selections last year are in particular extremely disappointing.

[MOtorboat]

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?

You answered your own question even if you don't want to talk about it.

Timmy Chang, Ty Detmer, Andre Ware, David Klinger, Danny Wuerffel and David Carr could all sling the football too, and extremely accurately in college.

It IS the speed of the game.

[Elevation inc]

Good retort but what did the Chargers do after that bad season by Brees...Went out and drafted a QB in the first round. I'm just saying that I'll be very disappointed if we go into next season with Tebow, Quinn and some project 7th rounder just because we got really lucky in 6 games this season.


that wont happen, elway will look at tannehill, Foles and Weeden in rds 2 and 3, and EFX will want a good vet to....believe it or not I like david garrard as a vet here next year.....he has won big games before....and i know he knows the ups and downs of the pros.....


I pretty sure Tebow will enter next year as the starter, backed by garrard or someone like tannehil or Weeden.....a vet will be in play as Number 2 or 3 and it wont be quinn. Weber on the PS as well.....

[NameUsedBefore]

Good retort but what did the Chargers do after that bad season by Brees...Went out and drafted a QB in the first round. I'm just saying that I'll be very disappointed if we go into next season with Tebow, Quinn and some project 7th rounder just because we got really lucky in 6 games this season.

That's not a very good example to bring up.

For very obvious reasons.

[catfish]

hahaha...completion percentage is a worthless stat? Let me know what stat you'd like to use? How about yards per attempt. He was above Curtis Painter in that stat at 26th in the league.

yards per attempt is a much better measure. Sure he is still ranked low, he is a second year QB. At least yards per attempt incorporates difficulty of throw instead of just blindly patting a qb on the back for being able to hit a checkdown or throw a screen pass. If a quarterback is throwing a signinfigant % of longer more difficult passe it will be reflected in his completion % negatively, but will be reflected postively in hie YPA. I have stated before if you want a better view of completion% at least use the splits and adjust for distance like G_money did

[TXBRONC]

I would give him C and it would have been a little higher had Denver won at least one of the last three games but it also be lower had Denver not made the playoffs.

[TXBRONC]

The only quarterback in Broncos uniform to beat a playoff team this season was Kyle Orton.

The six game stretch was fun, but it's come crashing down, and much of it lies on the fact that Tebow isn't a very good quarterback right now. I wish my eyes saw something different than what elsid's statistical analysis shows, but they don't.

It's not just three bad games, quarterbackwise, it's been one decent game, two or so slightly below average games and eight bad games.

Overall, I'd give him a C-, because of the wins, but they feel like anamolies, more than the norm.

True but it's the only game Denver won with him at quarterback this year.

[Joel]

Well, IF I'm gonna do this do, I'll do it like I usually do for a game or seasons worth of stats: QBR. Before doing so I want to be VERY clear about several things:

1) That's the same way I'd have done it last year absent greater more urgent priorities, the same way I've done it every year I've bothered since 2006; that it happens to benefit Tebow is incidental.

2) The aforementioned "benefit" is indirect and ONLY IN COMPARISON TO OTHER QBS: Because QBR includes rushing along with sacks and fumbles, Tebow suffers less than most other QBs.

3) The value of lost fumbles has been updated from 1.5Xinterceptions to 14/9Xinterceptions due to a previously undetected actuarial error.

The formula used is a modification of PR, thus:

20(Completions+Positive Rushes)+(All Yards)+80(All TDs)-100(Interceptions+1.55...XFumbles Lost)X100/24+50/24
All Attempts+Sacks

Basically, the NFL Passer Rating formula with rushing stats included. Accordingly, I must first update the stats MasterShake helpfully provided:

@ MIA 13/27 161 Yards 2 TD 0 INT 6 Sks 30 Sk Yds 9 Rushes 59 Rush Yds 0 TDs 0/1 Fum Lost PR 91.7 QBR 80.5 W 18-15 Grade B

VS DET 18/39 172 Yards 1 TD 1 INT 7 Sks 55 Sk Yds 10 Rushes 63 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/3 Fum Lost PR 56.8 QBR 44.1 L 10-45 Grade F

@ OAK 10/21 124 Yards 2 TD 0 INT 1 Sk 11 Sk Yds 13 Rushes 118 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 0 Fum PR 98.1 QBR 103.4 W 38-24 Grade A+

@ KC 2/8 69 Yards 1 TD 0 INT 0 Sks 0 Sk Yds 9 Rushes 43 Rush Yds 1 Rush TD 0 Fum PR 100.5 QBR 122.7 W 17-10 Grade A+

vs NJY 9/20 104 Yards 1 TD 0 INT 1 Sk 0 Sk Yds* 8 Rushes 68 Rush Yds 1 Rush TD 0 Fum PR 61.3 QBR 87.1 W 17-13 Grade A-

@ SD 9/18 143 Yards 1 TD 0 INT 1 Sks 2 Sk Yds 22 Rushes 67 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 0/1 Fum Lost PR 95.4 QBR 94.4 W 16-13 Grade A

@ MIN 10/15 202 Yards 2 TD 0 INT 2 Sks 16 Sk Yds 4 Rushes 13 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/1 Fum Lost PR 158.2** QBR 98 W 35-32 Grade A

vs CHI 21/40 236 Yards 1 TD 1 INT 5 Sks 15 Sk Yds 12 Rushes 49 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/2 Fum Lost PR 68.3 QBR 57.2 W 13-10 Grade D-

vs NE 11/22 194 Yards 0 TD 0 INT 4 Sks 53 Sk Yds 12 Rushes 93 Rush Yds 2 Rush TDs 1/2 Fum Lost PR 80.5 QBR 78.7 L 23-41 Grade B-

@ BUF 13/29 185 Yards 1 TD 3 INT 4 Sks 33 Sk Yds 10 Rushes 34 Rush Yds 1 Rush TD 1/2 Fum Lost PR 34.4 QBR 36 L 40-14 Grade F

vs KC 6/22 60 Yards 0 TD 1 INT 2 Sks 10 Sk Yds 6 Rushes 16 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/1 Fum Lost PR 17.2 QBR 9.1 L 3-7 Grade F

Season: 126/271 passing for 1729 yds, 12 TDs and 6 Ints, with 33 sacks for 225 yds; 121 rushes for 661 yds (5.5 YPA) and 6 TDs, losing 6/13 fumbles. PR: 72.9 QBR 70.8 7-4-0 Grade C

*I don't know how he had 1 sack for 0 yds against NY either; take it up with the NFL. :laugh:
**The NFL caps each all but one PR category, and against Minnesota Tebow exceeded the cap on YPA and TD%; the PR shown here is uncapped.

http://www.nfl.com/player/timtebow/497135/gamelogs
I've also swapped my grades on Tebow for MasterShakes where appropriate. They're subject to an "NFL curve" that places 10 of 50 starting 2011 in each group, with the top 3 in each group getting a + and the bottom 3 a - (and which I admit I haven't updated since Thanksgiving.) Luke McCown is dead last with a QBR of 31, which gives you an idea of just how bad Tebows last two games were. Tebows season rating is a solid C though, right between and Mark Sanchez at 26th (71.5) and Carson Palmer at 27th (69.8.)

So he's middle of the pack among this years starting QBs (it should be noted that includes ANY starter; Matt Leinart is second only to Rodgers: He only played half a game, but he STARTED.) Among second year QBs or first year starters I'd guess he'd rank a lot higher, but those are small enough samples I wouldn't place much weight on them. Good enough I want to seem him start next year, but if he comes out flat and turns in more QBRs in the 30s (or single digits :tsk:) it'll be time to make a change. I'm pretty sure Brady Quinn and most draft picks could consistently manage a QBR>9.1.

[Joel]

that wont happen, elway will look at tannehill, Foles and Weeden in rds 2 and 3, and EFX will want a good vet to....believe it or not I like david garrard as a vet here next year.....he has won big games before....and i know he knows the ups and downs of the pros.....

I pretty sure Tebow will enter next year as the starter, backed by garrard or someone like tannehil or Weeden.....a vet will be in play as Number 2 or 3 and it wont be quinn. Weber on the PS as well.....
The thing about Garrard (or McNabb, whom I'd still prefer) is that he's been where Tebow is and successfully transitioned to a QB who primarily passed but remained capable of called runs. That means

1) He could give Tebow the benefit of his experience learning the same skills from the same starting point,

2) We wouldn't lose any of Tebows playbook if he was hurt for a month or two and

3) Elway and the coaches wouldn't be splitting their time and attention between intensive development of TWO big projects at QB.

Also, an injury wouldn't leave us trying to get back to the playoffs in the same situation we'd be in now: Tebow is hurt; do we throw Weber out there or go with the "veteran" Brady Quinn? Perhaps as importantly, we're not likely to get into a QB controversy with Tebow and Garrard/McNabb, because they and everyone else knows they'll be at home drawing their pension in a year or two. Worst case scenario, Tebow bombs next year and we try to get back to the playoffs with a seasoned vet who can run our playbook, then find the long term solution in the next draft.

[CoachChaz]

I would go with the crowd and give him a C as well. However...I have a feeling that may be as high as he'll ever get. I expect he'll improve in a few areas, but I dont see him ever being a top QB. If he is going to be the starter, he's going to need one hell of a supporting cast around him because he's just not skilled enough to do it on his own.

Sure...he lead us to a few crazy wins this year, but is it realistic to expect that can happen every year? I think the league catches up with the "gimmick" Tebow. It's up to him to show he can burn defenses with his arm. If not...he's doomed Personally, I'm not sold that he can do it

[broncs]

jets game:the drive II ,98 yard touchdown drive, gets an A in my book

[claymore]

I grade Tebow a very generous C-. It is a grade that will continue to decline. The blueprint, and game film on Tebow is out now. His Benny hill antics cant save him if the defense is disciplined and contains.


If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.

I dont know what any of that means, but I trust you. :D

[Joel]

If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.
Completion percentage is an almost utterly meaningless stat; it doesn't get you yards, it doesn't get you points, it doesn't keep your drives going: All it does is pad your QBs stats for his next contract negotiation. He can complete 100% of 3 yard passes all day long and he'll end up with a great PR but no first downs. Meanwhile, the guy completing 25% of his 50 yard bombs has a PR in the 50s but he's beating you 24-0 at the half.

Completion percentage LOOKS important because it's the single most important stat in the NFL PRS, which (mathematically) says 4 completions=1 TD. That's obviously absurd to anyone but the NFL, and puts the West Coast Offense in perspective. A lot of people like to say its high PR PROVES the WCO is best, but that's like saying Tebows wins PROVE he's the best Broncos QB who's not Quinn or Weber: It's a meaningless truism.

I'm inclined to do what The Hidden Game of Football and Michael Neft (per their inspiration) did long ago: Ignore completions, translate TDs/TOs into yards and divide by attempts. THAT stat would actually MEAN something.

[underrated29]

Sorry guys, maybe its so

Just me but I don't know how you could rank the and niece came worse than the buff game? Take your emotion out of it and look just at game play and IMO he was way way way worse in that game

[vandammage13]

I actually agree with Mastershakes grades, but I do think when evaluating TT that you must include his rushing numbers.

It is a big part of his game and what we are doing offensively totally revolves around his ability to tote the rock.

[MasterShake]

I actually agree with Mastershakes grades, but I do think when evaluating TT that you must include his rushing numbers.

It is a big part of his game and what we are doing offensively totally revolves around his ability to tote the rock.

Yeah, I had to recreate the stats from NFL.com and I couldn't find a list of complete stats by game and was too lazy to look it up seperately. I just assumed most people remember the games overall, and mostly just put the stats there as a reminder of part of his performance.

[NightTrainLayne]

The only playoff team Denver beat was Cincinnati.

I understand.

But you state that as an endorsement of Orton and a condemnation of Tebow.

I ask, what other playoff teams do you see Orton beating with the 2011 Broncos?

For you to use this as an endorsement of Orton, you are logically making the case that Orton would have beaten at least one of the other playoff teams on our schedule.

So. .. who would that have been?

[MOtorboat]

I understand.

But you state that as an endorsement of Orton and a condemnation of Tebow.

I ask, what other playoff teams do you see Orton beating with the 2011 Broncos?

For you to use this as an endorsement of Orton, you are logically making the case that Orton would have beaten at least one of the other playoff teams on our schedule.

So. .. who would that have been?

I say it not as an endorsement of Orton, but rather a realization about the teams beat during the six game win streak.

Somehow you've completely misconstrued that into me trying to say Orton would have beat Detroit or New England, and I'm not.

[MasterShake]

I understand.

But you state that as an endorsement of Orton and a condemnation of Tebow.

I ask, what other playoff teams do you see Orton beating with the 2011 Broncos?

For you to use this as an endorsement of Orton, you are logically making the case that Orton would have beaten at least one of the other playoff teams on our schedule.

So. .. who would that have been?

Plus, how many teams did Tebow (I mean The Broncos) keep out of the playoffs? If not for the Broncos, we COULD have beat several playoff teams had we not ALREADY beat them (Chicago, NY, Oak, SD, etc). I mean, if we are going to be dealing in what ifs anyway...

[MOtorboat]

Plus, how many teams did Tebow (I mean The Broncos) keep out of the playoffs? If not for the Broncos, we COULD have beat several playoff teams had we not ALREADY beat them (Chicago, NY, Oak, SD, etc). I mean, if we are going to be dealing in what ifs anyway...

Except it's not a "what if" statement.

[MasterShake]

Except it's not a "what if" statement.

I know that factually the only playoff team we beat is Cincinatti but I guess I just don't get the argument.

I am just trying to say that we beat the teams we needed to beat, and some of those teams are playoff caliber had WE not beaten them.

Wait... you little ****** MO! You have totally derailed me in my own thread!

Back to the subject. I think the Grand Warlock Mexican was correct in predicting that we will win the Superbowl.

[Jsteve01]

I say it not as an endorsement of Orton, but rather a realization about the teams beat during the six game win streak.

Somehow you've completely misconstrued that into me trying to say Orton would have beat Detroit or New England, and I'm not.

Three teams on that list would have potentially been playoff teams had we not beaten them. It's a rather incongruous argument but it's true.

[NightTrainLayne]

I say it not as an endorsement of Orton, but rather a realization about the teams beat during the six game win streak.

Somehow you've completely misconstrued that into me trying to say Orton would have beat Detroit or New England, and I'm not.

It's either an endorsement of Orton, or a condemnation of Tebow. That's what I said in the earlier post, and so you are apparently using it as a condemnation of Tebow.

However, as MS points out without actually saying it, our strength of schedule this season was very difficult.

Per Sagarin (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm), we had the 8th toughest schedule, which puts us in the top 25% in terms of that stat.

I'm just pointing out that Tebow's lack of wins against "playoff" teams is quite possibly not a statistic to put a whole lot of weight on.

[Jsteve01]

Plus, how many teams did Tebow (I mean The Broncos) keep out of the playoffs? If not for the Broncos, we COULD have beat several playoff teams had we not ALREADY beat them (Chicago, NY, Oak, SD, etc). I mean, if we are going to be dealing in what ifs anyway...

oops didn't see your post...i'll revise mine when i decide to get off my lazy arse and do it.

[underrated29]

Sorry guys, maybe its so

Just me but I don't know how you could rank the and niece came worse than the buff game? Take your emotion out of it and look just at game play and IMO he was way way way worse in that game


stupid phone

I was saying maybe its just me but I dont know how you could rank the chiefs game worse than the buffalo game. He played so much worse against buffalo.

[PAINTERDAVE]

Good thread.

I also see it like this, however...

those areh is grades going in to the final exam.

I really think... win or lose..
that there will be a lot of weight given to what Tim/the TEAM does on Sunday.

Go Broncos :salute:

[NightTerror218]

Plus, how many teams did Tebow (I mean The Broncos) keep out of the playoffs? If not for the Broncos, we COULD have beat several playoff teams had we not ALREADY beat them (Chicago, NY, Oak, SD, etc). I mean, if we are going to be dealing in what ifs anyway...

Dont forget the Jets.

[Chef Zambini]

failed to mention his FUMBLES too !
critical fumbles at key times ! failed to mention the sacks he took looking stoopid in the pocket! failed to mention how his late season slide is a consequence of defenses becoming familiar.
yes the tebow experiment had highlights, some wild miraculous wins!
but so did JMCD for a 6 game stretch and what we saw at the end of JMCDs first season wasd the HONEST and TRUE indicator of what we should have expected to follow.
so it is with Tebow!
if he remains as our QB will see more of what we witnessed in his last 3 games!
A for effort, F for the future.
I stand a better chance of learning how to type !

[MasterShake]

Dont forget the Jets.

Are they from NY? :D

[MasterShake]

Good thread.

I also see it like this, however...

those areh is grades going in to the final exam.

I really think... win or lose..
that there will be a lot of weight given to what Tim/the TEAM does on Sunday.

Go Broncos :salute:

That is certainly one way to look at it! I hope his GPA skyrockets after next Sunday. And by that, I mean no Prater as MVP but a good team game led by him.

[NightTerror218]

Are they from NY? :D

brain fart.....missed the NY :D

[MasterShake]

brain fart.....missed the NY :D

No problem. I'm just getting tired of the "we haven't beat anybody" argument. Sure, the elite teams wiped the floor with us but we beat some playoff quality teams.

[NightTerror218]

No problem. I'm just getting tired of the "we haven't beat anybody" argument. Sure, the elite teams wiped the floor with us but we beat some playoff quality teams.

If we lost 1 of several games the WC and AFC W teams would different.

[bcbronc]

Completion percentage is an almost utterly meaningless stat; it doesn't get you yards, it doesn't get you points, it doesn't keep your drives going: All it does is pad your QBs stats for his next contract negotiation. He can complete 100% of 3 yard passes all day long and he'll end up with a great PR but no first downs. Meanwhile, the guy completing 25% of his 50 yard bombs has a PR in the 50s but he's beating you 24-0 at the half.

thing is, it's impossible to actually complete 100% of 3 yard passes. If you completed 100% of your passes, some are going to be longer than 3 yards. I know it's just meant as in illuminating example, but you can't just throw that away and say see, it doesn't work.

A theory that doesn't accurately predict what actually happens is flawed. When you look at which QBs have the best completion %, they also happen to be the QBs most will consider the game's best. Top 6 this year:

Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Brady, Stafford, Roethlisberger. Stafford has to do it for a couple more seasons before he's considered elite, imo and Romo is hot or cold, but that's a pretty good list. Not saying you can rate the best to worst QB simply from ranking by comp%, and I do agree with ypc being the #1 most important stat if (for some reason) you wanted to try to evaluate a QB off some number. But it's not a coincidence that the QBs most would consider the top tier in the league are usually in the top half of comp%.

You have zero chance of making a positive play out of an incompletion. Even a 3 yard pass can turn into a 90 yard touchdown with a broken tackle. Beyond accuracy, completion % is also a good indicator of how fast the QB processes information. Again, not saying comp% is the be-all, end-all, but then again I don't think what makes a great QB can really be quantified.

On that note, I'd give Tebow a C+ for his regular season work. Definitely didn't end on a high note, but young QB, young offense, ups and downs happen. Made some throws I didn't think he could make, swept the division on the road to get us back into the playoff picture, and set the team record for QB TDs. There are positives to take from Tebow's play, even with the last 2.5 games or so.

Obviously the scheme Fox and McCoy used to keep the team competitive while getting Tebow up to game speed has been figured out. This is probably the first time Tebow has ever questioned whether he can just will his way to victory. Not only is he questioning it, he now knows he can't. How he responds to that knowledge on Sunday and next training camp will go a long way to deciding what kind of career Tebow has.

I've said it before, if all Tebow ever becomes is a good package player, that's fine. He's shown he can make plays in this league, just maybe not for 60 minutes.

[BroncoBJ]

I'll try it now. :elefant: Pretty solid ratings though and i agree. I think his last 3 games last year were probably better overall than his games this year. Though his SD game last year was wild as passes were all over the place but played well in the 4th of that game.

And his final 3 games this year he has all regressed some. Hope he has a decent game this week.





@ MIA -- 1st start. Grade D- for the 1st 55 minutes. Probably about 10+ passes sailed way over players heads. Last 5 minutes = A. Accurate passes, comeback from down 15 to get the W. Overall grade = C-

VS DET -- Grade A for the 1st drive. Shoulda been a TD to Decker. Every drive after that = F. Passes all over the place. Multiple 3 and outs including a pick 6 and a fumble return for a TD. Embarassing loss at home. Overall grade =D-

@ OAK -- Grade B- overall Had no pass attempts in the 4th quarter but got the road win against a division rival. Played well, 2 TD passes. Great team effort as well and great bounce back win.

@ KC -- Grade Incomplete Total Joke of a game this was. The 1st drive had all runs in it and thats basically all the game was. Tebow did have a nice TD to Decker in the 4th to seal the deal. But 2 completions. lol at that. Every pass was basically a deep throw to Decker. no rhythm whats so ever.

vs NYJ -- Grade B- Solid 1st pass of the game and solid opening drive which resulted in 0 points. Great to come home and get a win and get back to .500. Great 95 yard drive to win the game, which had several good throws and good runs. Clutch grade = A+ for this game.

@ SD -- Grade B Another huge divisional road win for him. Struggled early but a great TD pass to Decker right before the half, and then put together some solid drives in the 4th quarter and some penalties negated a lot of them. But led us to tie the game on a nice drive and another great throw to Decker. Clutch Grade = A for this game.

@ MIN -- Grade = A for this game. Had 2 great TD's to Demaryius while running around and buying time and hitting him for the TD. And shoulda had a 3rd TD to him late in the 4th that woulda won it outright. But great job matching every score the Vikings had against us in the 2nd half and tying the game up. Thanks to Goodman for making a play on the defensive side at the end to just about seal the deal. Clutch Grade = A for this game.

vs CHI -- Grade = D- for 1st 3 quarters. Had a bunch of decent throws early on I thought, but none of them seemed to fall for a completion. No rhythm. And almost shutout. Grade A+ for the 4th quarter/OT. Down 10-0 with about 4 minutes left, drove us down for a TD right before the 2 minute warning. Got some breaks and got the ball back with under a minute left. Got us in to Matt Prater FG Range to kick a 59 yarder. Great throws to Demaryius in OT. 18/26 in the 4th qtr and OT. Prater won it again. Clutch Grade = A+

vs NE -- Grade C+ for this game. Had nice throws and runs early and an early lead, but a bunch of mistakes by him, Lance ball, Quan Cosby, and put us in a 2nd half whole that we couldn't overcome.

@ BUF -- Grade C for the 1st 3 quarters. Thought he played solid in the 1st few quarters. Nothing great but was okay. Knew he'd throw a pick the second the announcer mentioned his non int streak on the road. Grade F for the 4th quarter. A pick 6 and a fumble returned for a TD when we were only down 12 in the 4th with plenty of time left. Just a disaster of a quarter was. Was bad in the clutch, in the 4th, and pretty much the whole game. Just turned in to a nightmare.

vs KC -- Grade F for this game. Just thought it was a disgusting performance. But from his 1st start of the year, til this game. At least his passes arn't going all over everyones heads and to each sideline. The balls are at least staying in play, so theres been a lot of improvement. But with the playoffs on the line, this game just seemed flat. reminded me of Jay Cutler in a big game when he'd come out flat and have a mopey look on his face. And didn't deliver in the clutch like he has all year and imo this was his worst game of the year. Nothing seemed to go right, and a 7-3 loss right before the playoffs is not what I wanted to see.


So thats that. :salute:

Tebow during 1st 2 starts = D-
Tebow during next 6 starts ( all wins) = B-
Tebow during final 3 games ( all losses) = D

Clutch Tebow grade = B+
Overall Tebow grade = C

And with all that said. I still hope Tebow is our QB going in to next season. I want to see what he can do with a full offseason, all the OTA's, minicamp, training camp, and all the preperation. And see how he looks next year compared to this year. Reguardless of how he does this week vs Pitt. I've seen bright spots from him and dull spots. And I just want 1 more season to make my deciding factor on him.

:elefant:

[Joel]

thing is, it's impossible to actually complete 100% of 3 yard passes. If you completed 100% of your passes, some are going to be longer than 3 yards. I know it's just meant as in illuminating example, but you can't just throw that away and say see, it doesn't work.

A theory that doesn't accurately predict what actually happens is flawed. When you look at which QBs have the best completion %, they also happen to be the QBs most will consider the game's best. Top 6 this year:

Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Brady, Stafford, Roethlisberger. Stafford has to do it for a couple more seasons before he's considered elite, imo and Romo is hot or cold, but that's a pretty good list. Not saying you can rate the best to worst QB simply from ranking by comp%, and I do agree with ypc being the #1 most important stat if (for some reason) you wanted to try to evaluate a QB off some number. But it's not a coincidence that the QBs most would consider the top tier in the league are usually in the top half of comp%.

You have zero chance of making a positive play out of an incompletion. Even a 3 yard pass can turn into a 90 yard touchdown with a broken tackle. Beyond accuracy, completion % is also a good indicator of how fast the QB processes information. Again, not saying comp% is the be-all, end-all, but then again I don't think what makes a great QB can really be quantified.
I think high completion percentage an effect rather than cause of success, and believe many people put the cart before the horse. If a passer makes good reads/decisions and throwes on target quickly he's almost guaranteed a high completion percentage, and a low one if not. However, as long as he takes a step behind the runner before flipping the ball, he can run Toss Left all day for -75 yds and a GREAT completion percentage.

By itself, completion percentage means little, hence the NFL only used it to crown the "best" passer for three years in the thirties. I'm reluctant to go much beyond that lest I infringe on The Hidden Game of Footballs copyright. You may have already read it, but if not, you and every serious football fan should; in this case the relevant chapter is "The Glory, the Blame and the Ratings." Suffice it to say the very thing you suggest is so unlikely has already happened at least THREE TIMES on ONE TEAM in UNDER A DECADE: Two different fairly mediocre (at best) QBs (Tommy O'Connell and Milt Plum) won three passing titles throwing short passes at or behind the line--because the "receiver" happened to be Jim Brown, who routinely ran over guys for big gains and TDs anyway, making his QBs look much better than they actually were. Nice work if you can get it. ;)

Unfortunately, the NFLs CURRENT system, created around the time I was born, still overemphasizes completion percentage. It overrates Ints, too, but calling 4 completions the same as a TD is patently absurd.

More to the point, since completions do not, in themselves, get first downs or points, and the PRS already factors in the yardage and points of those that do, completions are rather extraneous. A guy with lots of yards and points but few picks USUALLY has a high completion percentage--but IF he's doing all those things, who cares whether he completes 80% of passes or 40%? The NFL PRS, that's who. Likewise, a guy completing most passes USUALLY gets lots of yards and points with few turnovers--but the PRS still doggedly insists the few high percentage passers who don't are great, because it's obsessed with the meaningless completion percentage.

In short, saying the best QBs have a high completion percentage is like saying it rains because the ground is going to be wet. It's an INDICATOR OF success, not success itself, and people should remember that limitation. Sometimes the ground is wet when it hasn't rained, and occasionally rainfall doesn't make it to the ground. Either way, ground moisture is predicted by rather than predicting rain.

On that note, I'd give Tebow a C+ for his regular season work. Definitely didn't end on a high note, but young QB, young offense, ups and downs happen. Made some throws I didn't think he could make, swept the division on the road to get us back into the playoff picture, and set the team record for QB TDs. There are positives to take from Tebow's play, even with the last 2.5 games or so.

Obviously the scheme Fox and McCoy used to keep the team competitive while getting Tebow up to game speed has been figured out. This is probably the first time Tebow has ever questioned whether he can just will his way to victory. Not only is he questioning it, he now knows he can't. How he responds to that knowledge on Sunday and next training camp will go a long way to deciding what kind of career Tebow has.

I've said it before, if all Tebow ever becomes is a good package player, that's fine. He's shown he can make plays in this league, just maybe not for 60 minutes.
I agree with pretty much all of that. The option will never work in the NFL. The spread both can and does (the Pats have been running it for years, and the Colts to a lesser extent,) but not with a QB hesitantly making bad slow reads. Having shown he can make the throws, Tebow must show he can do it consistently and, after big strides in each of his first 8 starts this season, he's slipped WAY back in his last couple.

Gut check time. Many Tebow fans say he responds to pressure and adversity, but so far most of it's been in the press, which is largely irrelevant to what happens on the field. The 15 and 10 point 4th quarter comebacks were impressive, but otherwise he's rarely had to surmount huge deficits, and when he did (NE and Buffalo) he couldn't. For the first time in his pro career, many people are questioning his ability because of what he's actually done on NFL fields. We'll know in 48 hours how well he bounces back, though I still say NO QB will have long term success with our team unless our line and receivers improve as much as Tebow must.

[Watchthemiddle]

It seemed just when "Tebowmania" was reaching a crescendo, he had a few bad games then a few awful ones. I think it may have been of all his support actually crushing him. Going into this weekends game I think we are right back where we want to be mentally - under the radar and underestimated.

I hope!

I agree with this statement. I remember after the Lions game and how bad EVERYONE said Tebow played, that they would give him ONE more week, or they had seen enough already, or he could get benched during the next game...

Well we are hearing all of that same talk now. The only thing Tebow did after all of that previous talk and a dreadful loss to the LIONS (actually the entire team was dreadful that game) was go off and win 6 in a row.

I fully expect Tebow to bounce back this week. No one expects him to do anything so he and the Broncos are going to shock the world.

[PAINTERDAVE]

I sure hope so , WTM. :defense:

[nevcraw]

Tebow
running A
short passing N/A
imtermediate routs N/A
long throws D+
gamer A++
Decision making considering all games B
playcalling under Tebow C-
chances of improvement B+

he does really need a QB guru and I don't mean Elway. Fassel would be my first choice.

[TXBRONC]

I agree with this statement. I remember after the Lions game and how bad EVERYONE said Tebow played, that they would give him ONE more week, or they had seen enough already, or he could get benched during the next game...

Well we are hearing all of that same talk now. The only thing Tebow did after all of that previous talk and a dreadful loss to the LIONS (actually the entire team was dreadful that game) was go off and win 6 in a row.

I fully expect Tebow to bounce back this week. No one expects him to do anything so he and the Broncos are going to shock the world.

I would like our chances better if knew he had his confidence back.

[Nomad]

I would like our chances better if knew he had his confidence back.

Packing it in against the Bills and Chiefs has left me with no confidence in Tebow. He should get his offseason but I don't think tomorrow's game will be any better than those last 2 games.

[rcsodak]

The book is out on Tebow...Keep him in the pocket and he's doomed to fail. Last 3 games has CLEARLY demonstrated that (though I think we saw glimpses in almost every game) and I hate to say it but I think we'll see a 4th this weekend.

If I told you, without knowing the player, you had a second year QB with a QB rating of 72.9 (ranked just above Sexy Rexy), averages 124 pass yards per game, and he's the guaranteed starter next season, I doubt anyone would be fine with that.

Who cares about qbr.

How about completing passes in the 40% range, leads the league in 3nouts and THEN ask that question.

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[rcsodak]

As I said somewhere else, if you normalize our passing offense to have the same # of short throws that every other offense in the NFL has, Tebow's completion % goes up six and a half points.

That's your standard deviation. Tim is inaccurate, but by forcing him to throw passes that are by definition harder to complete and having the lowest # of "cheap" completion opportunities in football (ten yards and under), his completion problems are magnified.

Tim should be a 52 or 53 % completion guy for the year. If we just fixed our short-passing game this offseason we'd improve his performance numbers tremendously without him having to do a whole lot of growing.

Which is why I have hope for this offense for next year.

~G

Maybe because he's not any better? When he overthrows guys 20', he's asking for trouble.
Btw, picks at the los are more likely returned for scores.

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[rcsodak]

Statistical analysis is probably the least valuable way to assess a young QB.

Agree. Stick with the smell test.

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[rcsodak]

lol no grading before the final huh?
Definition of homerism. Lol

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[Ravage!!!]

This is difficult.

D on passing

But he gets a B+ on running the ball.

Some would say that equals a 'C'..but C would mean he's an average QB, and I think when it comes to QBing, he's below average.

So if we are grading him as a QB.. then a D

[gregbroncs]

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?

In college he had the most talent on the field on his team by far. And the defenses they played against left his recievers WIDE open a lot. When a reciever is wide open it is not imperative that you throw a good pass. Since that rarely happens in the NFL. His passing is a problem.

[Ravage!!!]

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?

Because its the college vs pro, thing.

His grade for his "nfl throws" for his college play was poor when coming out of college. Those are the throws that scouts see as tight windows, deep outs, and timing routes (or htting the pass before the wr turns...throwing the ball ON time). Tebow had a lot of success in college because of his running.

His throws at the NCAA level didn't have to be on target in tight spaces. They could wobble and be 3 feet off because his WRs could/would just out athlete the defenders. Most defenses didn't have to speed to deal with both Tim's running ability, and the WRs that were on the field. Florida just flat out had MUCH better athletes than nearly all their opponents.

CLEARLY being able to throw the ball in the 'near general' area and clearly being able to put the ball accurately to a tight space, at the right spot, and pinpointing is different.

Obviously he's a good enough athlete to be drafted into the NFL as a QB. So yes, he can throw the ball. Hell, watch any 3rd string QB in the NFL during warmups, and every one of them is pinpoint accurate to the WRs as they make their warm up routes. The guys wouldn't be in the NFL at all if they couldn't throw the ball at all.

[hamrob]

I'd have to give him a B. Let's try to remember that these were amongst the first 14 starts of his career. I think a C grade is fair, however, I have the opinion that Fox/McCoy are the absolute worst coaches for developing a young QB.

If you only get 20 throws a game and they are most often on 3rd and long or when the game counts on you......WoW, that's a hell of a lot to ask for of a kid in his first 14 starts.

I'd also like to add that, these coaches refuse to try and get Tebow into the passing game early...where he can build confidence and rythem.

Like I said, a C is fair....but, with the hand that he's been dealt...I'll give him a B!

***I just have to add this tidbit. This kid playing in his first 14 games has gone 8-6....7-4 this year. If you are going to rate TEBOW for these 11 games. The kid went 7-4! This after we went 4-12 last year and started the year 1-4. Despite all that, Tebow managed to go 7-4! If you measure a QB by wins and losses, is 7-4 really a C grade. No.....he did better than "C" folks!

[TT15Superman]

I'd have to give him a B. Let's try to remember that these were amongst the first 14 starts of his career. I think a C grade is fair, however, I have the opinion that Fox/McCoy are the absolute worst coaches for developing a young QB.

If you only get 20 throws a game and they are most often on 3rd and long or when the game counts on you......WoW, that's a hell of a lot to ask for of a kid in his first 14 starts.

I'd also like to add that, these coaches refuse to try and get Tebow into the passing game early...where he can build confidence and rythem.

Like I said, a C is fair....but, with the hand that he's been dealt...I'll give him a B!

***I just have to add this tidbit. This kid playing in his first 14 games has gone 8-6....7-4 this year. If you are going to rate TEBOW for these 11 games. The kid went 7-4! This after we went 4-12 last year and started the year 1-4. Despite all that, Tebow managed to go 7-4! If you measure a QB by wins and losses, is 7-4 really a C grade. No.....he did better than "C" folks!I agree with your observations, but I give him a C = average QB.

BTW, we were 3-10 with whom last year? How everyone grade Kyle Orton, a 7 year pro? Some still consider him a legit NFL starter.

[MasterShake]

I must amend this game for the AFC West WILD CARD A+

[Dean]

I have to admit that his 12th game significantly raised his average. :amen: Hell of a day!!!!:nixon:

[Nomad]

Packing it in against the Bills and Chiefs has left me with no confidence in Tebow. He should get his offseason but I don't think tomorrow's game will be any better than those last 2 games.

WRONG! What a dumbass^^^^^:coffee::lol:

[NightTerror218]

WRONG! What a dumbass^^^^^:coffee::lol:

confidence back?

[Elevation inc]

WRONG! What a dumbass^^^^^:coffee::lol:

yesterday made the last 5 years all worth it for me....what a rush....I am actually contemplating driving 9 hours to foxboro for this game only......

[Nomad]

confidence back?

I'm trying. I've slept on it and I don't have a good feeling about the New England game.


yesterday made the last 5 years all worth it for me....what a rush....I am actually contemplating driving 9 hours to foxboro for this game only......

Do it!!! You'll regret it if you don't and take Nut with you. He lives around your area.


Medford Bronco....get your ass to the game!