Playoff Scenario Generator

[OrangeHoof]

This handy tool at Yahoo Sports, the Playoff Scenario Generator (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=WinningPct) lets you see how the playoff seedings would be based on the results of the final three weeks of the season.

There are several default starting points (I chose to default the team with the higher winning pct. wins each game) but you can then tweak the individual results and watch the outcomes change. For Denver fans, it's really all about the 4th seed and winning the AFC West but might they sneak in as a wild card if the Raiders win the division? Play around and find out.

[Thnikkaman]

I'm trying to figure out how Denver loses the Tiebreaker to Oakland, since I see a scenario where Denver and Oakland finish at 9-7, and Oakland wins the division.

[BroncoStud]

That's pretty cool.

[G_Money]

I'm trying to figure out how Denver loses the Tiebreaker to Oakland, since I see a scenario where Denver and Oakland finish at 9-7, and Oakland wins the division.

We lose to KC, they win the rest of their division games. Then they have a better divisional record than us and win the tiebreak.

~G

[Northman]

We lose to KC, they win the rest of their division games. Then they have a better divisional record than us and win the tiebreak.

~G

I think he meant in reality. :D

[BroncoStud]

We could lose to the Chiefs.

[CrazyHorse]

If we make the playoffs it will more than likely be by winning division and put us at the 4th seed. This would probably match us up with the Steelers.

[Nomad]

If we make the playoffs it will more than likely be by winning division and put us at the 4th seed. This would probably match us up with the Steelers.

I'd like to see this matchup and the BRONCOS prove me wrong they can compete with a team like the Steelers.

[karnage]

I give Hoge a lot of credit....it takes a lot to admit that after you've been so far on the other side of the fence and so vocal about it for so long....

[Joel]

Yeah, ESPN has a pretty similar one, but for us it's fairly straightforward at this point:

Beat KC AND NE OR Buffalo and we win the Division,
Beat KC and we win if Oakland loses to anyone
Beat anyone and we win if Oakland loses to SD OR KC,
We win no matter what if Oakland loses 2 games (because 1 must be in the Division, which at least ties the Division tiebreak and gives us common opponents outright.)

Wildcard scenarios get more complex, because there many teams still statistically alive, but realistically the only competition is NY, Cincy and Tennessee, and we've beaten all but the latter (who lost yesterday and thus fell a game behind us.) Tennessees remaining schedule is pretty weak though; the only really tough game is the last one against Houston, who is only playing for a bye now and may rest its starters. Or it may not; the Texans and ex-Oilers REALLY hate each other (putting them in the same Division was probably a mistake.)

Thing is, the wildcard only becomes relevant if we lose the Division, and most of the scenarios where we lose the Division at this point also require losing so many games one of the other bubble teams probably has a better overall record, so tiebreaks won't matter. If the Titans stumble and the Giants beat the Jets though a wildcard could be viable, but then we're talking about a team that stumbles backward into the playoffs after losing in Buffalo and at home against KC, so don't expect to be there long.

A caveat to all the playoff generators I've seen is that they aren't useful for ALL tiebreaks, only head to head, Division, common and conference record plus (I think) strength of victory and strength of schedule. It's not likely to go beyond that, but you can't figure the scoring tiebreaks by plotting wins/losses alone.

[vandammage13]

We could lose to the Chiefs.

Orton's revenge?

[Cugel]

Look, it's a LOT simpler than you people are making out. If Denver wins their division they will face the #5 seed which will be either the Steelers or (less probably) the Ravens.
Meanwhile the Texans who have 10 wins will play the wild-card which would be the Jets if the season ended right now.

Either way the Broncos will probably be crushed like a grape.

For the Broncos to get the Wild-Card they would have to lose at least 1 game over the next 3 and probably 2. I assume that Denver is going to win the division.

If they get the Wild-Card they will travel to Texas to face the Texans. In that case they will also probably get crushed like a grape but maybe not so bad as they will be facing the Steelers or Ravens.

Either way it's a waste of time. They have virtually no chance of going to the SB this year. So this is still a rebuilding year. Next year they need more talent to put together a serious run. Especially on offense. Their starting secondary is also the oldest in the NFL, with Methusela Dawkins and Grandpa Goodman as well as Champ.

They will need to replace 2 of them next year. Then they need S, CB, DTs, LB, C, G, WR, RB (2 of them), TEs (2) and a backup QB. They could get some of these players in FA.

[CrazyHorse]

You guys have little faith in your team. Remember how the Seahawks beat the defending champs, or how the 7-9 Cardinals almost beat the Stealers. ANYTHING can happen.

[nevcraw]

Look, it's a LOT simpler than you people are making out. If Denver wins their division they will face the #5 seed which will be either the Steelers or (less probably) the Ravens.
Meanwhile the Texans who have 10 wins will play the wild-card which would be the Jets if the season ended right now.

Either way the Broncos will probably be crushed like a grape.

For the Broncos to get the Wild-Card they would have to lose at least 1 game over the next 3 and probably 2. I assume that Denver is going to win the division.

If they get the Wild-Card they will travel to Texas to face the Texans. In that case they will also probably get crushed like a grape but maybe not so bad as they will be facing the Steelers or Ravens.

Either way it's a waste of time. They have virtually no chance of going to the SB this year. So this is still a rebuilding year. Next year they need more talent to put together a serious run. Especially on offense. Their starting secondary is also the oldest in the NFL, with Methusela Dawkins and Grandpa Goodman as well as Champ.

They will need to replace 2 of them next year. Then they need S, CB, DTs, LB, C, G, WR, RB (2 of them), TEs (2) and a backup QB. They could get some of these players in FA.

well --- better turn it off til next year.. obviously too much for you..

[Thnikkaman]

I love fans that can't stand it when people enjoy how their team is doing.

[Joel]

Look, it's a LOT simpler than you people are making out. If Denver wins their division they will face the #5 seed which will be either the Steelers or (less probably) the Ravens.
Meanwhile the Texans who have 10 wins will play the wild-card which would be the Jets if the season ended right now.

Either way the Broncos will probably be crushed like a grape.

For the Broncos to get the Wild-Card they would have to lose at least 1 game over the next 3 and probably 2. I assume that Denver is going to win the division.

If they get the Wild-Card they will travel to Texas to face the Texans. In that case they will also probably get crushed like a grape but maybe not so bad as they will be facing the Steelers or Ravens.

Either way it's a waste of time. They have virtually no chance of going to the SB this year. So this is still a rebuilding year. Next year they need more talent to put together a serious run. Especially on offense. Their starting secondary is also the oldest in the NFL, with Methusela Dawkins and Grandpa Goodman as well as Champ.

They will need to replace 2 of them next year. Then they need S, CB, DTs, LB, C, G, WR, RB (2 of them), TEs (2) and a backup QB. They could get some of these players in FA.
Unfortunately I think that's a pretty solid assessment (except I believe a LB would be wasted and that we don't NEED a DT, RB or TE, though any of those would be nice.)

However, I will note one bizarre and unlikely scenario: If we beat NE next week they would be a game ahead of us overall; if they then lost one of their Division games against Miami or Buffalo and we won our last two against Buffalo and KC, we would actually become the #3 seed by virtue of the head to head win against NE. A similar unlikely scenario would us winning out and NE beating everyone BUT us while Houston loses all its remaining games. We could well win a playoff game then; our most likely opponents would be:

Cincy (who we beat with ORTON,) the Jets (whom we beat a month ago,) Tennessee (who barely beat us when we had Orton) or the Raiders (who lost the Division and a home game against us.) At that point we'd be in the Conference Championship and anything could happen.

I'd probably put the odds of all that somewhere between 10 and 20 to 1, but it COULD happen.

If NE loses to us and someone else AND Houston loses its last three we would actually be the 2nd seed, but I'd put the odds of that at 50 to 1 or more.

[igoe4broncos]

I NE loses to us and someone else AND Houston loses its last three we would actually be the 2nd seed, but I'd put the odds of that at 50 to 1 or more.

Well Tebow's last four comebacks had a combined 1 in 380,000 chance of happening, so crazier shit has happened...

First things first though - beat NE and let the pieces fall where they may.

[Joel]

Well Tebow's last four comebacks had a combined 1 in 380,000 chance of happening, so crazier shit has happened...

First things first though - beat NE and let the pieces fall where they may.
Crazier stuff's happened to the Cheatriots, but I don't expect it this time, even with how badly they play in Denver. Love to see it; not holding my breath. I don't think Tebow, our line and our receivers, whose average age is about 24, are ready to win a shootout with one of the most potent offenses ever.

The sad thing is, if we do make the playoffs we'll probably face a better team in the first round, either the Ravens team that beat Houston (with Schaub) and swept the Steelers, or the Steelers whose only losses are those two and a 17-10 game in Houston. Schaub and the Texans managed 31 points against those two teams: How do you think we do when we're averaging about 2 TDs less? The REALLY sad thing is that while we're getting pounded at home by a 12-4 "wildcard" team, the Pats will probably be destroying a team we beat (Cincy, NY or Chokeland) or one that only beat Orton by a FG (Tennessee.)

Well. I think the top four AFC teams are significantly better than us, but the Pats are definitely the runt of the litter. If we beat them we can win the rest of our games, and if they lost another one somewhere we'd have the tiebreak, the #3 seed and a (relatively) easy home game, probably against a team we already beat. Unlikely as it is, it's the best scenario that's even remotely plausible, so: Go Broncos, Go America. I'm just glad this isn't a League where a 1-4 teams season is over already.