Would a Broncos win - Raiders lose give us the division next week?

[FanInAZ]

We've already slit head to head. We would be tied for division record if they beat KC & SD and we lose to KC. So how would the other tie breakers work out?

[lgenf]

Why don't we just win out and not worry about it.....

[wayninja]

We've already slit head to head.

This sounds dirty.

But to answer your question:


TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

So it would probably come down to common games. Which we have an edge in at the moment.

[FanInAZ]

Why don't we just win out and not worry about it.....

I just want to start the Division Championship party ASAP!

[BroncoWave]

No, we wouldn't clinch. If we win next week then lose out, and Oakland loses next week then wins out, we would both be 9-7 but Oakland would be 4-2 in the division and we would be 3-3. No clinching next week unfortunately. It would all but clinch though. We aren't losing to Buffalo and KC.

[Clipworthy]

No, we wouldn't clinch. If we win next week then lose out, and Oakland loses next week then wins out, we would both be 9-7 but Oakland would be 4-2 in the division and we would be 3-3. No clinching next week unfortunately. It would all but clinch though. We aren't losing to Buffalo and KC.

but KC has Keanu Reeves

[Joel]

Not outright, no. We'd have a 2 game lead, but could still finish tied overall if they won and we lost the last 2. Since their last 2 are in the Division and so is our last 1, that would give them the Division by Division record.

Our respective records (overall and in descending priority of tiebreaks) are now:

Denver 8-5 Head to Head 1-1 Division 3-2 Common 6-3 Conference 6-3

Raiders 7-6 Head to Head 1-1 Division 2-2 Common 4-5 Conference 5-5

If we win and they lose next week we're ahead by 1 more game against common opponents. However, our remaining schedules then would be:

Denvers @Buffalo (5-8)
KC (5-8) @Denver

Raiders @ KC (5-8)
SD (6-7) @ Raiders

If we win and they lose the last 2 they get 2 more Division and common wins, while we get 1 more Division and 2 more common losses; final standings would be:

Denver 9-7 Head to Head 1-1 Division 3-3 Common 7-5 Conference 7-5

Raiders 9-7 Head to Head 1-1 Division 4-2 Common 6-6 Conference 7-5

However, unless KC wins in Denver it is ALREADY impossible for Oakland to win the Division without running the table.

Essentially, we need 1 game to clinch a better record against common opponents, but that doesn't matter unless we're tied against the Division, where they can still beat us unless they lose a Divisional game.

[BroncoStud]

No, we wouldn't clinch. If we win next week then lose out, and Oakland loses next week then wins out, we would both be 9-7 but Oakland would be 4-2 in the division and we would be 3-3. No clinching next week unfortunately. It would all but clinch though. We aren't losing to Buffalo and KC.

We could beat or lose to anyone. I worry about Buffalo because they are so up and down. Look great then look horrible, but if you catch Fitzpatrick on a good day he can pick you apart.

KC is REALLY bad, Palko is horrible and their line is worse, but they usually play us tough.

BUT, I really think the Raiders are falling apart, they could lose 2 more games. If we get to 9 wins I am confident about our chances.

The Chargers still have a shot as well, they could run the table for all we know. They usually play good ball this late in the season. They could finish 9-7 as well.

[Joel]

We could beat or lose to anyone. I worry about Buffalo because they are so up and down. Look great then look horrible, but if you catch Fitzpatrick on a good day he can pick you apart.

KC is REALLY bad, Palko is horrible and their line is worse, but they usually play us tough.

BUT, I really think the Raiders are falling apart, they could lose 2 more games. If we get to 9 wins I am confident about our chances.

The Chargers still have a shot as well, they could run the table for all we know. They usually play good ball this late in the season. They could finish 9-7 as well.
The Lions are falling apart a LOT worse than the Raiders though; they needed an uncalled facemask penalty to stop the Vikings coming back from 21-0. If they don't win in Oakland we're down to hoping the Chargers or Chiefs beat them. Or, y'know, winning our own games; Buffalo and KC would do nicely.

The Chargers may not be mathematically out of it, but facing Baltimore, Detroit and Oakland, two of them on the road, they'll be lucky to get one more win, let alone two.

[Joel]

For future reference, this will take care of all scenarios based on the records of teams competing for a tiebreak (not sure if it factors strength of victory, and obviously it doesn't go as far as scoring.)
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[horsepig]

We've already slit head to head. We would be tied for division record if they beat KC & SD and we lose to KC. So how would the other tie breakers work out?

All we have to do is beat KC, or theBills and the division is ours. We own the tie breaker already, head to head (points) and are tied in the division.

[Joel]

All we have to do is beat KC, or theBills and the division is ours. We own the tie breaker already, head to head (points) and are tied in the division.
Actually, if the Raiders win out we have to beat KC AND the Bills (or Pats, but the former is a much easier path to the Division.) Tying the first two tiebreaks and owning the third doesn't help us unless we're tied overall. ;)