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View Full Version : The coin filp matters even more in the NFL now.



LoyalSoldier
01-06-2009, 08:48 PM
I was looking over the OT numbers this year and it is shocking how much the coin flip was an advantage. Out of a total of 16 games played (including the playoffs thus far)

11 teams who won the coin toss won the game (8 on the opening drive)
4 teams who lost the coin toss won the game
1 game ended in a tie.

In this season winning the coin toss gave nearly a 3 to 1 advantage(73% of the games that did not end in a tie) and roughly 53% of the teams won the game in one drive. Those numbers are up from last year.

Broncos Mtnman
01-06-2009, 09:00 PM
I was looking over the OT numbers this year and it is shocking how much the coin flip was an advantage. Out of a total of 16 games played (including the playoffs thus far)

11 teams who won the coin toss won the game (8 on the opening drive)
4 teams who lost the coin toss won the game
1 game ended in a tie.

In this season winning the coin toss gave nearly a 3 to 1 advantage(73% of the games that did not end in a tie) and roughly 53% of the teams won the game in one drive. Those numbers are up from last year.

The coin toss cost the Colts their game against SD. I'm not a superstitious guy, but the Colts called "heads" when the common thing to do is call "tails."

That's why they say, "tails never fails." :lol:

LRtagger
01-06-2009, 09:06 PM
I wish they would resort to some sort of equal OT similar to college. With the way the NFL handcuffs defensive players as it is, it seems nearly impossible to win an OT game if you lose the toss (unless you are Pitt or Balt).

Giving both teams the opportunity to run their offense seems more fair...rather than letting a 50/50 guess decide the outcome of who gets the ball.

G_Money
01-06-2009, 09:44 PM
Just start em at midfield and make them have to score a touchdown. If the one team fails, the other team starts from the 50.

The Colts would still have lost, but IMO they should lose if they can't keep the kid out of the end zone.

None of this cheap field goal stuff. Maybe your D can't stop the other team from getting into field goal range, but if you can't keep them from putting up 6 then you deserve to lose. More goal line stands, more 4th down OT craziness, more fun.

No field goals to win it in OT. Kickers get their chances at glory at the end of regulation. The foregone conclusion of field goals in OT is boring.

Let the other guys determine the OT outcome.

~G

CrazyHorse
01-06-2009, 09:56 PM
They should just eliminate the sudden death part of overtime.
For regular season they should play a full 15 minute period.
If the score is still the same after that it should result in a tie.
In postseason play they should have full 15 minute periods until someone wins.
Games might be longer and there may be more tie games but it is the fairest way possible.

MOtorboat
01-06-2009, 09:58 PM
Meh.

It's sudden death. Deal with it.

If you wanted to prevent it, especially in the Colts case, maybe you should have made that third down.

I like the overtime.

CrazyHorse
01-06-2009, 10:02 PM
Meh.

It's sudden death. Deal with it.

If you wanted to prevent it, especially in the Colts case, maybe you should have made that third down.

I like the overtime.

Would you want sudden death in basketball?
It's the same concept.

MOtorboat
01-06-2009, 10:02 PM
Would you want sudden death in basketball?
It's the same concept.

Not even close.

CrazyHorse
01-06-2009, 10:04 PM
Not even close.

Why wouldn't it be appropiate in basketball?

MOtorboat
01-06-2009, 10:07 PM
Why wouldn't it be appropiate in basketball?

Because they score (in pro basketball) 90-120 points a night.

In football, they average around 20, with three to four total scores.

It's a totally different game and a bad comparison.

CrazyHorse
01-06-2009, 10:10 PM
Because they score (in pro basketball) 90-120 points a night.

In football, they average around 20, with three to four total scores.

It's a totally different game and a bad comparison.

You are right.

LoyalSoldier
01-06-2009, 10:18 PM
Meh.

It's sudden death. Deal with it.

If you wanted to prevent it, especially in the Colts case, maybe you should have made that third down.

I like the overtime.

I wouldn't mind it if it wasn't so easy to get into field goal range. The fact of the matter is the coin toss is choosing 73% of the games for us. That is not a fair stat.

MOtorboat
01-06-2009, 10:21 PM
If you don't like it, get a defense.

It's not about fair. It's about finishing a win-loss game.

NightTrainLayne
01-06-2009, 10:26 PM
The idea behind the sudden-death OT is to keep regular season games from dragging on for too long and invading 60 minutes or other network programming.

The NFL wants the game over quickly if it leaks out of normal regulation.

I'd love something different. I really like G's idea. Maybe they could implement something different for playoff situations. I don't see the regular season changing since they are trying to ephasize getting the game over in a timely manner.

LoyalSoldier
01-06-2009, 10:43 PM
If you don't like it, get a defense.

It's not about fair. It's about finishing a win-loss game.

Strange if you change the format you still need a defense. Except both teams are required to play defense not just one. You can't tell me at 73% all it is that teams just don't have a good defense.

CrazyHorse
01-06-2009, 10:46 PM
The idea behind the sudden-death OT is to keep regular season games from dragging on for too long and invading 60 minutes or other network programming.

The NFL wants the game over quickly if it leaks out of normal regulation.

I'd love something different. I really like G's idea. Maybe they could implement something different for playoff situations. I don't see the regular season changing since they are trying to ephasize getting the game over in a timely manner.

I wouldn't mind if overtime was eliminate altogether in the regular season.
I know it sounds absurd but there is NOTHING wrong with ties.
Just ask Philadelphia.

MOtorboat
01-06-2009, 10:48 PM
Yeah, I just don't buy the "they didn't get a chance argument."

Did we not just play the last 60 minutes? Did we not just play the last three downs?

Everyone always has a chance.

BroncoWave
01-06-2009, 10:49 PM
I wouldn't mind if overtime was eliminate altogether in the regular season.
I know it sounds absurd but there is NOTHING wrong with ties.
Just ask Philadelphia.

That would definitely make the end of games alot more interesting to see if teams go for 2 instead of 1 or go for last second TD's instead of FG's.

I think you might be onto something here! :beer:

LoyalSoldier
01-06-2009, 10:54 PM
That would definitely make the end of games alot more interesting to see if teams go for 2 instead of 1 or go for last second TD's instead of FG's.

I think you might be onto something here! :beer:
No coaches would just go for the tie. Did you ever hear of the infamous "half a loaf" game? I can't remember which early Denver coach did it, but he went for the tie instead of the win and later he said "I would rather have half the loaf instead of no loaf" or something like that. The fans were absolutely pissed at him and threw bread on the field the next game. I believe that was the final draw that got the coach fired.

BroncoWave
01-06-2009, 11:24 PM
No coaches would just go for the tie. Did you ever hear of the infamous "half a loaf" game? I can't remember which early Denver coach did it, but he went for the tie instead of the win and later he said "I would rather have half the loaf instead of no loaf" or something like that. The fans were absolutely pissed at him and threw bread on the field the next game. I believe that was the final draw that got the coach fired.

Not necessarily. If you were in a situation where it's week 17 and you can get in with either a win or tie, I'd definitely go for the tie at the end of the game.

PatricktheDookie
01-07-2009, 12:13 AM
I love the NFL overtime system.

It's called "have a good defense."

Remember when we beat Buffalo in 1997? What happened when Buffalo rallied and took the game into overtime?

Ref: Denver wins the toss. Do you want the ball?
Elway: No, we want the wind.

I loved it. We told Buffalo that our defense would stop them, then we'd drive down on them.

We won that game. =)

DenBronx
01-07-2009, 01:27 AM
I love the NFL overtime system.

It's called "have a good defense."

Remember when we beat Buffalo in 1997? What happened when Buffalo rallied and took the game into overtime?

Ref: Denver wins the toss. Do you want the ball?
Elway: No, we want the wind.

I loved it. We told Buffalo that our defense would stop them, then we'd drive down on them.

We won that game. =)


i forgot all about that. pretty ballzy move!

actually though the team that gets the ball first could easily pin the opossing team deep into their own territory. then all you have to do is stop them, which is generally easier inside the 10 yard line because of limited play calling. after they punt it back you then have decent field position with the ball back making it easier to score.

LoyalSoldier
01-07-2009, 03:04 AM
i forgot all about that. pretty ballzy move!

actually though the team that gets the ball first could easily pin the opossing team deep into their own territory. then all you have to do is stop them, which is generally easier inside the 10 yard line because of limited play calling. after they punt it back you then have decent field position with the ball back making it easier to score.

Bingo. That is why even if you make the first stop you are still at a disadvantage. You have to make at least 20 yards to actually be able to punt the ball far enough away to prevent them from easily getting into field goal range.

LRtagger
01-07-2009, 10:30 AM
I love the NFL overtime system.

It's called "have a good defense."

Remember when we beat Buffalo in 1997? What happened when Buffalo rallied and took the game into overtime?

Ref: Denver wins the toss. Do you want the ball?
Elway: No, we want the wind.

I loved it. We told Buffalo that our defense would stop them, then we'd drive down on them.

We won that game. =)


But the point is, you dont have to have a good defense if you win a RANDOM COIN TOSS.

It's not like San Diego has a great defense, but they managed to win the game because they won the coin toss.

When you have two teams with great offenses and mediocre defenses, the coin flip decides the outcome a majority of the time.

LRtagger
01-07-2009, 10:35 AM
Yeah, I just don't buy the "they didn't get a chance argument."

Did we not just play the last 60 minutes? Did we not just play the last three downs?

Everyone always has a chance.

San Diego had their chances to win in regulation as well, but couldnt get it done...why should they get the advantage in "sudden death" just because the Colts GUESSED wrong on a coin toss?

The team that wins the toss will always get the advantage in OT. It is unfair because the teams played exactly evenly for an entire 60 minutes. To put the final outcome of the game on a single coin flip which is entirely a random guess is unfair to the players that already played well for 60 minutes.

It's not like San Diego did anything in the first 60 minutes to win the game, why should they get the advantage going into OT?

LRtagger
01-07-2009, 10:38 AM
The idea behind the sudden-death OT is to keep regular season games from dragging on for too long and invading 60 minutes or other network programming.

The NFL wants the game over quickly if it leaks out of normal regulation.

I'd love something different. I really like G's idea. Maybe they could implement something different for playoff situations. I don't see the regular season changing since they are trying to ephasize getting the game over in a timely manner.


Makes sense, I guess...but the NCAA manages to pull it off on network television.

I would love to see more NFL games end like the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

gregbroncs
01-07-2009, 10:59 AM
I am all for the college system. It is more fair and generally does not add much time to the game. Besides for TV do you really think the rating's for an overtime game are lower than for 60 minutes? Just make the games end fairly. Either have no overtime or have something similar to the College overtime system.

To have a playoff game basically decided by a coin toss is a complete joke. In the playoffs they need a more fair system. Let their be ties in the regular season and use the college thing in the playoffs.

How pissed will everybody be if a super bowl is decided by a coin toss?

broncofaninfla
01-07-2009, 11:01 AM
The NFL's overtime sucks. I'm glad it is starting to get some attention. Both teams should be given the chance to score. Whiel it isn't perfect, I prefer the college football approach better.

NorthernLights
01-07-2009, 11:10 AM
I was looking over the OT numbers this year and it is shocking how much the coin flip was an advantage. Out of a total of 16 games played (including the playoffs thus far)

11 teams who won the coin toss won the game (8 on the opening drive)
4 teams who lost the coin toss won the game
1 game ended in a tie.

In this season winning the coin toss gave nearly a 3 to 1 advantage(73% of the games that did not end in a tie) and roughly 53% of the teams won the game in one drive. Those numbers are up from last year.

Good conversation, but....

Your conclusion that 73% of the winner of the coin flip wins the game is statiscally correct, it is misleading. The whole point of the discussion is whether the overtime rules give both sides a fair chance to win the game, which the statistics show it does. As you can see, only 8 in 16 teams took advantage of winning the coin toss and didn't allow the opposing team to get their offense on the field.

Over the long term the statistics favor the winner of the coin flip to the tune of 58% which still leaves room for the argument for changing the rules.

Still, good discussion.

NameUsedBefore
01-07-2009, 11:34 AM
Either give each team a chance or take away field goals. Either way I'm happy. However, marching half the field to kick a field goal is soooo very meh.

horsepig
01-07-2009, 12:12 PM
No coaches would just go for the tie. Did you ever hear of the infamous "half a loaf" game? I can't remember which early Denver coach did it, but he went for the tie instead of the win and later he said "I would rather have half the loaf instead of no loaf" or something like that. The fans were absolutely pissed at him and threw bread on the field the next game. I believe that was the final draw that got the coach fired.

Lou Saban

LawDog
01-07-2009, 12:57 PM
Coin toss is a 50-50 proposition. You can't get any fairer than that. What you do with it after winning the toss is up to you. Besides, get it done during regulation and the point is moot.

Slick
01-07-2009, 01:40 PM
Strange if you change the format you still need a defense. Except both teams are required to play defense not just one. You can't tell me at 73% all it is that teams just don't have a good defense.

I don't think teams play the same defense in OT that they do in regulation.

EastCoastBronco
01-07-2009, 02:47 PM
I like the idea of a Field Goal contest. Start at the 30 and keep moving back until somebody misses. It's a hell of a lot more fair than a stupid coin toss.

LRtagger
01-07-2009, 02:52 PM
I like the idea of a Field Goal contest. Start at the 30 and keep moving back until somebody misses. It's a hell of a lot more fair than a stupid coin toss.

The only thing I dont like about this is it handcuffs the teams that do not have good kickers...or kickers that dont have strong legs.

I would prefer to let the two most important units on each team decide the games in OT (offense and defense).

Maybe have a college type OT, but go to no FGs after the first OT instead of the 2nd.

I like a scenario that gives both offenses and both defenses a chance to play to win the game...rather than letting a random coin toss decide which units may or may not get a shot at getting on the field.

horsesense
01-07-2009, 02:54 PM
The coin toss to start a game is fair for obvious reasons, but how bout the team with the fewest penalties gets the ball first in OT?

LoyalSoldier
01-07-2009, 06:30 PM
Good conversation, but....

Your conclusion that 73% of the winner of the coin flip wins the game is statiscally correct, it is misleading. The whole point of the discussion is whether the overtime rules give both sides a fair chance to win the game, which the statistics show it does. As you can see, only 8 in 16 teams took advantage of winning the coin toss and didn't allow the opposing team to get their offense on the field.

Over the long term the statistics favor the winner of the coin flip to the tune of 58% which still leaves room for the argument for changing the rules.

Still, good discussion.

However it isn't misleading. Because of the fact that the other team doesn't get a kickoff instead they often get a punt that could very well be at the 1 yard line. So instead of starting at the 20 to 30 yard line like the team who won the toss, the team who lost the toss starts with a long field to go. Having to drive 40 yards is a lot less than having to drive 70 yards.


Coin toss is a 50-50 proposition. You can't get any fairer than that. What you do with it after winning the toss is up to you. Besides, get it done during regulation and the point is moot.

Yet it isn't when we are talking about sports. In sports we are trying to determine who is better not who was lucky enough to win a coin toss. How do you measure skill with a coin toss? If I want to watch luck I'll go play blackjack.

Nomad
01-07-2009, 06:38 PM
However it isn't misleading. Because of the fact that the other team doesn't get a kickoff instead they often get a punt that could very well be at the 1 yard line. So instead of starting at the 20 to 30 yard line like the team who won the toss, the team who lost the toss starts with a long field to go. Having to drive 40 yards is a lot less than having to drive 70 yards.



Yet it isn't when we are talking about sports. In sports we are trying to determine who is better not who was lucky enough to win a coin toss. How do you measure skill with a coin toss? If I want to watch luck I'll go play blackjack.

Each team has 60 minutes to prove they are better, what more do you want? I agree with Lawdog and the NFL does as well. If you don't get the flip stop them from scoring and your team needs to score!

horsesense
01-07-2009, 06:42 PM
Reward one of the teams for something happening within the game. I mentioned penalties, but it doesnt have to be just that. It could be total yardage.:confused: This is one of the rules I figured the league would've changed years ago. :whoknows:

MOtorboat
01-07-2009, 06:43 PM
Reward one of the teams for something happening within the game. I mentioned penalties, but it doesnt have to be just that. It could be total yardage.:confused: This is one of the rules I figured the league would've changed years ago. :whoknows:

No. Hell no.

The only determining factor in a win is the score. Thus a coin-flip is the only logical way to solve who gets the ball in the overtime period.

Maybe they could have a jump ball at the 50-yard line.

LoyalSoldier
01-07-2009, 06:45 PM
Each team has 60 minutes to prove they are better, what more do you want? I agree with Lawdog and the NFL does as well. If you don't get the flip stop them from scoring and your team needs to score!


Um not to have a coin decide who wins between two equally matched teams? Maybe to see BOTH teams play offense and defense?

You know football, not a stupid way to just end the game.

"Get it done in regulation" to justify a broken system is kind of stupid if you ask me. It is like saying "Well don't crash and you won't have to worry about Air Bags" Ok so what good does it do me if some crap happens and I end up in a crash?

As I have shown before, even if you make the stop you are still at a huge disadvantage.

MOtorboat
01-07-2009, 06:46 PM
Um not to have a coin decide who wins between two equally matched teams? Maybe to see BOTH teams play offense and defense?

You know football, not a stupid way to just end the game.

"Get it done in regulation" to justify a broken system is kind of stupid if you ask me. It is like saying "Well don't crash and you won't have to worry about Air Bags" Ok so what good does it do me if some crap happens and I end up in a crash?

As I have shown before, even if you make the stop you are still at a huge disadvantage.

Then play a period. A 10-minute quarter. That doesn't change the game. The college system changes the game just as much as sudden death.

Nomad
01-07-2009, 06:48 PM
Reward one of the teams for something happening within the game. I mentioned penalties, but it doesnt have to be just that. It could be total yardage.:confused: This is one of the rules I figured the league would've changed years ago. :whoknows:

Why not cut out FGs in the second half of games as a means of scoring, make teams score 2 pt conversions in the last quarter of the game after a TD! You could tweak the game all day long and people won't be happy. Overtime is just fine even if the BRONCOS don't win sometimes because they choose the wrong side of the coin. Defend!!

Nomad
01-07-2009, 06:52 PM
No. Hell no.

The only determining factor in a win is the score. Thus a coin-flip is the only logical way to solve who gets the ball in the overtime period.

Maybe they could have a jump ball at the 50-yard line.


Or you could take the biggest lineman from each team and have them do a Sumo wrestling match!

LoyalSoldier
01-07-2009, 06:53 PM
Then play a period. A 10-minute quarter. That doesn't change the game. The college system changes the game just as much as sudden death.

I am not for the college system, but at least that relies on skill and strategy.

Tell me when was the last time there was a memorable overtime? Really when was the last time there was an overtime that was so exciting that people don't want to forget it? College has produced several overtimes that people were on the edge of their seats.

I wouldn't even mind each team having one possession followed by a sudden death. That way each team must play both offense and defense and if either team fails to score then it goes to sudden death. It doesn't inflate scores to the extent that college does and yet the coin flip is not the all deciding factor. Even if you forced to the teams to go for the touchdown instead of the field goal I would like it more.

MOtorboat
01-07-2009, 06:54 PM
Or you could take the biggest lineman from each team and have them do a Sumo wrestling match!

I think a scrum, like Rugby would be appropriate.

Sorry, I don't mean to mock you horsesense...but how many times to do we see a team out-gain the other team and lose the game? Or commit more penalties than the other team and still win the game?

Slick
01-07-2009, 06:56 PM
remember He Hate Me? He used to win the XFL "scrums" all the time. I'd forgotten about that until someone said something. Is that a viable option?

MOtorboat
01-07-2009, 06:58 PM
remember He Hate Me? He used to win the XFL "scrums" all the time. I'd forgotten about that until someone said something. Is that a viable option?

No.

Personally, I think the NFL has the best overtime.

College is entertaining, but it's just not the best way. IMO.

horsesense
01-07-2009, 08:20 PM
I think a scrum, like Rugby would be appropriate.

Sorry, I don't mean to mock you horsesense...but how many times to do we see a team out-gain the other team and lose the game? Or commit more penalties than the other team and still win the game?
No worries MB we can agree to disagree.:beer:
Why not make the penalties mean a little more then. Or eliminate OT all together and have more ties, or more teams going for the win.

Den21vsBal19
01-07-2009, 08:29 PM
Or you could take the biggest lineman from each team and have them do a Sumo wrestling match!
Two head coaches, Marquess of Queensberry rules ;)



Would certainly make searching for a new coach more interesting if boxing ability were one of the criteria :lol:

Nomad
01-08-2009, 08:18 PM
The coin toss cost the Colts their game against SD. I'm not a superstitious guy, but the Colts called "heads" when the common thing to do is call "tails."

That's why they say, "tails never fails." :lol:


:lol:I know off topic but to prove your point. You quote "tails never fails" and in the BCSCG, Florida gets the call and calls heads, the coin falls on tails!!