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Tned
01-01-2009, 10:13 PM
Does history repeat itself? Pat Bowlen is betting on it.

As 1994 came to a close, the Denver Broncos were at a turning point. Over the three previous years, the club was 24-24. A team that was among the leaders in offense, but at the bottom of the league in defense.

The 1994 Broncos were 28th in total defense (out of 28 teams) while being 25th in points given up. The Broncos were near the bottom of the league in both point and turnover differentials. The ’94 Broncos gave up the most yards in the NFL and the 3rd most points.

The Broncos’ defense was worse than it was the year before.

Fast forward to 2008, the Broncos are 29th in total defense while being 30th in points allowed. The Broncos are near the bottom of the league in both point and turnover differentials. The 2008 Broncos gave up the 4th most yards and 3rd most points in the NFL.

The team’s defense was worse than it was the year before.

In 1994, three years removed from a loss in the AFC Championship game the Broncos had an offense that was good enough to win any game they played. They were among the league best in passing and total offense, but had an inconsistent and struggling running game, where the quarterback was among the team leaders in rushing. They were better in gaining yards than at scoring points.

The ’94 Broncos had one of the best quarterbacks in the league, who was fourth in the league in passing yards per game, but had only a .500 record in 1994.

Again, fast forward to 2008, the Broncos once again found themselves three years removed from a loss in the AFC Championship game and with an offense that was good enough to win any game. They were among the league best in passing and total offense, but had an inconsistent and injury riddled running game, where the quarterback was among the team leaders in rushing. While they were 2nd in total offense, they struggled to score points and finished in the middle of the league in points scored.

The 2008 Broncos have one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, who was third in the league in passing yards per game, but had only a .500 record in 2008.

Very striking similarities between the 1994 and 2008 Denver Broncos. Both the 1994 and 2008 Broncos had endured three straight seasons with an overall .500 record (24-24). Both clubs had a strong offense, led by a very good QB, but a horrible defense.

Another similarity between the 1994 and 2008 Broncos, Pat Bowlen fired the head coach following the season. In both cases he saw a defense that was worse than the previous year, and an offense that was being wasted. A team that three years earlier lost in the AFC Championship game, but was treading water at best, or possibly even sliding backwards, further away from a trip back to the AFC Championship game, not to mention to the Super Bowl.

The 1994 team had some playmakers on defense (Mecklenburg, Fletcher, Atwater, Smith, etc.), many of them aging veterans, but lacked consistency and true starting-talent across the defensive lineup. Much like the 2008 Denver Broncos. However, while the 2008 Denver Broncos had some veterans, the defense was made up more of young, unproven players than aging veterans, but as in 1994, lacked true starting-talent across the lineup.

In 1994, Pat Bowlen’s instinct told him that he needed to make a change in order to reach his goal, winning the Super Bowl. He wanted to make that change before it was too late. He needed someone to quickly overhaul his defense, while taking an already good offense and making it great, before the window of winning closed on the offense.

In 1995, the defense improved from last in the league the year before to middle of the pack (15th), and then in 1996 the Broncos returned to the playoffs with a top 5 defense and the number one offense in the league.

Ironically, while Pat Bowlen finds himself at the same crossroad that he was at in 1994, this time he had to fire the very man that he hired 14 years ago to turn his franchise around.

Only time will tell if lightening will strike twice – whether or not history will repeat itself, but Pat Bowlen has bet a great deal on his belief it will, both in terms of the money he still owes Mike Shanahan and his coaching staff that will be replaced, and in terms of the ‘risk’ that the team could get worse, rather than better.

The last time Pat Bowlen stood at this crossroad, he clearly made the right choice. He hired a young offensive genius in Mike Shanahan, and in three short years the Denver Broncos won the first of their back-to-back Super Bowl championships.

This time around, the stakes are higher. While in 1994 he fired an ineffective Wade Phillips, this time he has fired the very man that was previously the savior of his franchise, the man that finally brought the Lombardi trophy to Denver.

There is much speculation as to who Pat Bowlen will hire to be Denver’s next head coach. Whether it will be an established head coach with a track record of winning, or a young gun like Mike Shanahan was 14 years ago. Will he opt for another young offensive genius, or look for a young defensive guru to turn around the defense, while looking to Jeremy Bates to continue the progression of the offense.

The thing about history is that you cannot foretell it, but can only look back upon it and record it, once enough time has passed. It will likely be years before we know whether or not Pat Bowlen’s decision to fire Mike Shanahan achieves the goal he wants, another Super Bowl Championship.

Years before we know -- if history will repeat itself.

Broncos Mtnman
01-01-2009, 10:22 PM
Is this your own tned? If it is, great work. :2thumbs:

Tned
01-01-2009, 10:24 PM
Is this your own tned? If it is, great work. :2thumbs:

Yea, some mindless meandering to pass the time. :D

Thanks

Broncogator
01-01-2009, 10:43 PM
Tned, you use your tongue (keyboard in this case) prettier than a $20 whore.

Shazam!
01-01-2009, 11:08 PM
TNed has read many of my posts it seems, a lot of what is here is what I have said all along the past few days. Keep reading my brilliance T... I'm kidding.

The circumstances now almost mirror the 92-94 Broncos. Barring a Coaching selection that would be called a mistake, Denver will be ok.

BroncoTech
01-02-2009, 01:36 AM
Hell of a read.

SoTxBroncFan
01-02-2009, 11:49 AM
Nice read ned.

pnbronco
01-02-2009, 12:14 PM
Great read Tned, I like it so much more than the newspaper guys, thanks...:D

Medford Bronco
01-02-2009, 12:40 PM
excellent work Tned :salute:

BroncoJoe
01-02-2009, 12:49 PM
:salute:

NightTrainLayne
01-02-2009, 02:11 PM
I've said it in a few threads already. Bowlen "won't be wrong for long." Either the next guy will be successful or he'll be gone soon as well. Bowlen is the best owner in the NFL, and his team will succeed.

Tned
01-02-2009, 02:56 PM
I've said it in a few threads already. Bowlen "won't be wrong for long." Either the next guy will be successful or he'll be gone soon as well. Bowlen is the best owner in the NFL, and his team will succeed.

For the record, I agree with you about Pat, but to play devils advocate, is he the best owner or luckyest?

John Elway and Mike Shanahan provided Bowlen with only a handful of losing seasons in 25 years. How does the owner react/handle adversity? We might find out.

NightTrainLayne
01-02-2009, 03:00 PM
For the record, I agree with you about Pat, but to play devils advocate, is he the best owner or luckyest?

John Elway and Mike Shanahan provided Bowlen with only a handful of losing seasons in 25 years. How does the owner react/handle adversity? We might find out.

On the other side of that. If he wasn't a good owner he wouldn't have had Elway and Shanahan for so long.

He did make a quick change when Wade Phillips didn't work out.

Assuming Wade makes it through the off-season in Dallas he will have been in Dallas and Buffalo far longer than Bowlen kept him in Denver, and Buffalo and Dallas have pretty good ownership in their own right.

Wade might have been kept around longer in other organizations. If memory serves he was right around .500 for the two years he was here.

Tned
01-02-2009, 03:03 PM
On the other side of that. If he wasn't a good owner he wouldn't have had Elway and Shanahan for so long.

He did make a quick change when Wade Phillips didn't work out.

Assuming Wade makes it through the off-season in Dallas he will have been in Dallas and Buffalo far longer than Bowlen kept him in Denver, and Buffalo and Dallas have pretty good ownership in their own right.

Wade might have been kept around longer in other organizations. If memory serves he was right around .500 for the two years he was here.

Like I said, I tend to agree with you, but was just throwing out a devil's advocate argument.

Yes, I think .500. When I was pulling up stats for the first post in this thread, I think I remember he was 7-9 and 9-7 in his two years (can't remember which order) and the Broncos were 8-8 the year before Wade came in.

NightTrainLayne
01-02-2009, 03:06 PM
Like I said, I tend to agree with you, but was just throwing out a devil's advocate argument.

Yes, I think .500. When I was pulling up stats for the first post in this thread, I think I remember he was 7-9 and 9-7 in his two years (can't remember which order) and the Broncos were 8-8 the year before Wade came in.

Understood on the devil's advocate. .. guess I was just being an Angel's advocate or something like that. . . :D :flypig: