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Tned
10-19-2011, 02:58 PM
Tneds Take: Put it in the books. The passing game with Tebow will be better than with Orton

If youíve listened to more than a few minutes of Denver sports radio in the last few weeks, before and after Orton was benched in San Diego, youíve probably heard that Denver will all but abandon the passing game when Tebow is behind center. You would have heard radio hosts stating that Tebow is nothing more than a running back playing in the quarterback spot. That Tebow will do nothing but scramble around, try and run the ball or hand off to McGahee. That Tebow canít play in a traditional offense, the team will have to change to a gimmicky offense, and no team can be successful running a gimmick offense. That trading Lloyd made sense, since the Broncos will no longer have a deep passing game. The comments about the vanishing Broncos passing game have been as varied as they have been frequent on Denver sports radio.

My contention has been, and remains, that the passing game will be better under Tebow than it was with Orton, and that opinion hasnít changed with the Trade of Brandon Lloyd. I havenít had the benefit of watching Tebow in practice, but instead only regular season and preseason games. So, I donít doubt Orton plays better in non-contact, practice sessions, but last time I checked those donít count in the division standings.

Laying it out:

First, a couple points of clarification. I am not a Tebow fanatic. I am in the camp that thinks the jury is very much out on whether or not Tim Tebow is capable of being a quality starting NFL quarterback, not to mention becoming a top-tier quarterback. If I was presented with a choice of Tim Tebow or Andrew Luck today, I would choose Andrew Luck. That said, since the jury is still out, I try to guard against assuming Tebow canít make it in the NFL as a quarterback. Also, in preparing to write this Tnedís Take, I reviewed every pass that Tim Tebow threw in his three starts last year.

As the NFL is a stats focused league, itís impossible to have a discussion of this type without digging into the stats, so weíll take a brief look at how Tebow and Orton compare based on passing stats.

The stats - Kyle Orton vs. Tim Tebow:

This year, Kyle Orton has had one 100+ point passer rating game in five starts, with an overall rating of 75.7. He has thrown seven picks against eight touchdowns. Last year, Ortonís numbers are slightly better, with four 100+ passer rating games in 13 starts, and an overall passer rating of 87.5. He threw nine picks against 20 touchdowns. His yards per attempt in 2010 were 7.34 (best of his career) and 6.32 in his five starts in 2011.

In Tebowís three starts last season, he had one 100+ yard passer rating game. An overall passer rating (in his starts) of 81.9. He threw three picks against five touchdowns. His yards per attempt were 8.0, which is higher than any year of Ortonís career. I didnít include the second half of the San Diego game when Tebow took over for a benched Orton, but Tebow had a 100+ passer rating in that game, added a passing Touchdown and his yards per attempt were 7.9. In addition to Tebowís passing stats, he added six rushing touchdowns and twelve first downs in the nine games he played in last season, and a rushing touchdown and two first downs in the half of football played in 2011.

So, just purely based on passing stats, Tebow has a similar quarterback passer rating, similar TD to INT ratio (Orton much worse this year), but Tebow has a better yards per pass attempt and adds the rushing first downs and touchdowns. For those not familiar with the yards per attempt stat, by going with yards per attempt instead of yards per completion, the quarterback with the lower completion percentage is typically hurt, but as you can see, Tebow still did better than Orton, even with a lower completion percentage. This indicates that Tebowís completed passes were far more effective than Ortonís completed passes.

Beyond the stats:

While just looking at stats paints a very favorable comparison of Tim Tebow to Kyle Orton, thatís only part of the story. Instead, watching both quarterbacks in live game action tells the real story. Something Iím convinced that many on the Denver sports talk shows have not done, or at least they have not taken the time to rewatch Tim Tebowís 2010 starts beyond what they remember from watching the games live almost a year ago.

Iím going to throw one more stat out, to help paint the picture. Brandon Lloyd was targeted 153 times last year, but only caught 77 balls. At the same time, Pro Football Focus states that Lloyd only had 4 drops in 2010. What happened to the other 72 targets? They were a combination of defended passes and passes that were considered uncatchable. Anyone that has reviewed Kyle Ortonís throws of the last two years knows that he routinely throws into double or triple coverage (he often locks on to a receiver and throws whether open or not) and routinely throws off target balls. Ortonís throws, especially the short to mid-length throws over the middle and crossing routes are routinely late and to the back hip or shoulder of the receiver, requiring them to attempt a twisting catch against the direction they are running. This should not be confused with intentionally throwing to the back shoulder on a sideline route or the corner of the endzone, instead these are poorly thrown balls behind the receiver.

Itís this inherent inaccuracy and locking on to his primary receiver that leads to 72 balls thrown to Brandon Lloyd beingÖ. In Ė Com Ė Plete. Beyond the inaccuracy, Orton is most comfortable throwing short (between the line of scrimmage and 7-10 yards downfield) or a bomb, with little in between. As Orton has always been an inaccurate deep ball thrower (he throws a line drive or floater, no touch on the long ball), the defense doesnít respect and defend that part of his game. As a result, defenses tended to pack themselves between the line of scrimmage and first down sticks, causing congestion that prevented receivers from getting separation on the short routes that Orton favors. A regular knock on the Broncos receivers is that they canít get separation, but when the defense is allowed to jam the ten yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and the receivers are running routes within that ten yard box, itís very hard to get separation amongst all that defender traffic.

Those are some of the reasons that the passing game has been so ineffective with Orton as the starter. He has racked up some big passing numbers in his two plus years in Denver, but most of those have come in garbage time Ė when the other team was up by multiple scores and transitioned to a soft or prevent defense, opening up Ortonís 10-15 yard comfort zone.

The popular media 'takes' on Tebow:

So, the question remains as to why a Tebow led passing game will be better than the inept passing game under Orton? In order to address that, letís take a look at some of the claims from local sports radio about why Tebow canít be successful and why the Broncos passing game will suffer with Tebow under center:

1. Tebowís first instinct is to run. He will make one read, and then tuck and run.

I reviewed the almost 100 Tim Tebow passing plays from 2010 and nothing could be farther from the reality displayed on the field. While Tebow did at times scramble (something you want from a mobile QB when the pocket is breaking down), in nearly every case he scrambled to extend the pass play, not to gain yards. There were times when outside pressure prevented him from escaping the pocket and extending the play, and in those rare cases, he ran up the middle. There were also a handful of plays where when scrambling to the left or right, and seeing no defender in front, he took off. However, his first instinct (or at least visible action on field) was to stay in the pocket until a receiver was open, or to get out of the pocket, staying behind the line of scrimmage until a receiver is open. There was no evidence of a quarterback who makes one read, and then tucks the ball and runs. Quite the opposite was on display.

2. Tebow isnít an accurate passer. He isnít accurate enough to be an NFL quarterback.

Again, a review of every 2010 pass shows this to be completely inaccurate (inaccurate media, not Tebow). Unlike Kyle Orton who routinely throws off target balls behind receivers on the move, Tebowís balls were almost always in front of them, giving the receiver an opportunity to catch the ball. The vast majority of balls that he didnít throw away were right on target, with a handful being a little high. Like every quarterback, especially young ones, he threw some balls that he shouldnít have, a few resulting in picks, while others in incompletions. However, more times than not, when the play wasnít there, he threw it away. A significant number of his incompletions were balls he threw away when no receiver was open.

3. Defenses will simply stack the box and not allow Tebow to run the ball, and he canít beat them with the pass.

As noted, the only time Tebow was quick to take off running (other than designed runs) was when the pocket collapsed and the choice was scramble up the middle or get sacked. The fact is that Tebow has not been the run-first quarterback that the local media chooses to portray him as being. Instead, the Broncos ran a good mixture of shotgun and snaps with Tebow under center, a good mixture of run and pass plays, and enough designed quarterback runs to force the defense to defend against a Tebow run on every play. In his three starts last year, Tebowís attempts went from 16 in his first start (when he was clearly being slowly worked in to the passing game) to 36 attempts in his third start. There was no indication in those three games that Tebow wonít be able to throw the ball as often as the game plan or game situation dictates.

4. Tebow canít throw the deep ball. In those rare cases when he does throw the ball, all Tebow can do effectively is throw screen passes or short passes.

Last year, in his three starts, Tebow made every type of throw with accuracy. While he was very effective on the screens and short passes, because he often set them up with a run fake, the short pass was in no way the only passes he threw, or that he threw well. While Kyle Orton excelled on passes from 0-10 yards, while being hit and miss on the mid and long throws, Tebow was typically very accurate on the mid to long range balls. In fact, Tebow threw a much better, more on target long ball than Orton does. Where Orton only throws a line drive or high floater, forcing his receiver to almost always stop to avoid an underthrow, or see the line drive sail over his head, Tebowís balls were either right on target, or just slightly off target, but with the good arch and hang time that you want on a long ball. Unfortunately, most commentary is done on his stats or highlight/lowlights, which doesnít give the full picture. Take away his throw always and throws on the run under extreme duress, and there were very few balls last year from Tebow that were not Ďcatchableí balls. Some were dropped, some were defensed by a defender, and of course some were off target. However, the vast majority of his throws were well thrown and on target. Far, far from the picture that local Denver sports radio paint of a quarterback who would have a hard time hitting water if he fell out of a boat.


Conclusion:

So, to summarize all of that into why Tim Tebowís passing offense will be better than Ortonís. Ortonís lack of mobility, inaccurate deep ball, and preference to throw the ball between the line of scrimmage and seven to ten yards downfield, resulted in a mass of defenders creating congestion in Ortonís small area of comfort. When Tebow is the quarterback, the defense not only has to defend his running ability but also his mid to deep range throws. Neither of which was a strong part of Ortonís game, so defenses didnít defend heavily against either. Defenses will need to either keep a spy on Tebow, or run schemes that keep him from getting to the edge and running for a first down. However, when teams dedicate one or more players to contain Tebow, they will do so by sacrificing coverage in the secondary.

A review of all of Tebowsí 2010 passes shows that he doesnít scramble to run, but scrambles to extend passing plays. A fact that is often detailed in the NFL in regards to the importance of a pass rush, is that given enough time receivers will always get open. The two ways that a quarterback can take advantage of that fact are to have an impenetrable offensive line that gives the quarterback as much time as he needs, or a quarterback that extends a play by scrambling out of the pocket. Tebowís mobility affords him both options. When the offensive line holds firm, he can wait for routes to develop and receivers to come open, when the protection breaks down, he can get out of the pocket and by the time his receivers need to get open.

Now, all of this is predicated on Tebow being accurate enough to hit open receivers. Assuming he hasnít regressed from his three starts last year, he is clearly accurate enough to do just that. Due to the fact that the Broncos defense is better this year, and Fox likes to run a conservative, run first offense, I wouldnít expect Tebow to put up the big yardage numbers that Orton racked up in garbage time. However, when it comes to moving the chains, scoring points and yards per attempt, the Tebow led passing game will be far more effective than it was under Kyle Orton.

vandammage13
10-19-2011, 03:10 PM
whew...my eyes are tired now, but a good read and analysis.

Rex
10-19-2011, 03:14 PM
Is this a new Forum regular thing? TNEDS TAKE?\

Tned
10-19-2011, 03:17 PM
Is this a new Forum regular thing? TNEDS TAKE?\

Depends on your definition of regular.

BeefStew25
10-19-2011, 03:19 PM
Is this a new Forum regular thing? TNEDS TAKE?\

If you don't like it just move along.

Excellent post Tned.

Rex
10-19-2011, 03:20 PM
Depends on your definition of regular.

Like, this is going to be a weekly E-publication. It seems to me that you are really trying to step up your cred in the E Football world these days Tned.

Slick
10-19-2011, 03:27 PM
Nice job Tned.

Is he going to make it as a qb in this league? Yes or no.

BeefStew25
10-19-2011, 03:28 PM
Nice job Tned.

Is he going to make it as a qb in this league? Yes or no.

No one knows. To say otherwise is just ego talking.

Northman
10-19-2011, 03:30 PM
Good article, well thought out.

pipes
10-19-2011, 03:31 PM
Screw that other site's cp's... Found u on here, so I gave u a slap hands!

underrated29
10-19-2011, 03:32 PM
Yup!


All I am going to say. I think he is the goods. And I wont buy into he is not. I am still secretly holding out hope we can make an 11 game run. I know it sounds crazy...


But the defense is going to get so many more rests and breaks with tebow in there. I dont expect tebow to be polished and legit right away but I do expect he will win us games and even when he has some rookie games that are bad I still think he will come out of it and we will catch a lot of teams by surprise.

IMO playoffs are very real for us. The most important position on a football team has been manned by one who may never play as a starter again in the league...People forget that and let the blame fall elswhere on the defense and such. With tebow while not being rivers, rodgers, big ben, yet. I still think he will get by enough on talent until he can get his game improved from the coaches.

Tned
10-19-2011, 03:33 PM
Nice job Tned.

Is he going to make it as a qb in this league? Yes or no.

Unlike many in the Denver sports media, and some in the national media, I'm not going to say after three fairly solid games that he isn't, but I'm also not going to assume he will just because he had a great NCAA career.

I'm about as much of a fence sitter as you can get on this subject.

I would have said a coin toss, 50/50 chance a couple days ago. After going through all of his pass plays this morning (game rewind, it's ability to jump from play to play is awesome), I would probably up that to close to 60/40 or 70/30 that he'll make it as a good, quality starter.

It's been a long times since I had watched those games, and I never rewatched them. I was really amazed at how few times he made one read, and then tucked and ran, which listening to almost all the media, is what you would think he does on nearly every pass play. It simply wasn't true last year. So, assuming he didn't regress during ilockout offseason, I think he's at a very solid foundation and I think the odds are in his favor that he'll be playing pretty good by the end of his 11 game audition.

Tned
10-19-2011, 03:34 PM
Screw that other site's cp's... Found u on here, so I gave u a slap hands!

lol, preciate it.

Tned
10-19-2011, 03:35 PM
Yup!


All I am going to say. I think he is the goods. And I wont buy into he is not. I am still secretly holding out hope we can make an 11 game run. I know it sounds crazy...


But the defense is going to get so many more rests and breaks with tebow in there. I dont expect tebow to be polished and legit right away but I do expect he will win us games and even when he has some rookie games that are bad I still think he will come out of it and we will catch a lot of teams by surprise.

IMO playoffs are very real for us. The most important position on a football team has been manned by one who may never play as a starter again in the league...People forget that and let the blame fall elswhere on the defense and such. With tebow while not being rivers, rodgers, big ben, yet. I still think he will get by enough on talent until he can get his game improved from the coaches.

Well said.

Bullgator
10-19-2011, 03:38 PM
Very nice Tned. I gotta go break some heads down at the restaurant but when I come back I'll post my thoughts on your article. It looks like Bullgators Take for the most part :D

And coming from you its unbiased, that should make some bronco fans feel better than if I posted it.

:beer:

slim
10-19-2011, 03:40 PM
Like, this is going to be a weekly E-publication. It seems to me that you are really trying to step up your cred in the E Football world these days Tned.

He is really getting his name out there.

Sorry I couldn't read this one, dent. It was way too long.

Tned
10-19-2011, 03:46 PM
He is really getting his name out there.

Sorry I couldn't read this one, dent. It was way too long.

Would you like me to send you the audio book version? :lol:

You can also hope to the three paragraph conclusion. while it doesn't cover it all, it summarizes the key points.

Dreadnought
10-19-2011, 03:59 PM
He is really getting his name out there.

Sorry I couldn't read this one, dent. It was way too long.

Its worth it, Slim. It was damned well written, to be honest. When we can refocus Tned away from responding to rampant doucherocketry he is pretty perceptive. Especially perceptive in that I agree with him wholeheartedly :D

Watch Tebow's YPA. That will be the "tell". Best QB stat there is, and Orton usually stank at it.

slim
10-19-2011, 04:01 PM
Its worth it, Slim. It was damned well written, to be honest. When we can refocus Tned away from responding to rampant doucherocketry he is pretty perceptive. Especially perceptive in that I agree with him wholeheartedly :D

Watch Tebow's YPA. That will be the "tell". Best QB stat there is, and Orton usually stank at it.

I read the conclusion (best I can do here) and I agree with most of what he said.

I am still not sure he is accurate enough (at least not as sure as dent). He has had some really bad throws in his 3.5 games.

Tned
10-19-2011, 04:08 PM
I read the conclusion (best I can do here) and I agree with most of what he said.

I am still not sure he is accurate enough (at least not as sure as dent). He has had some really bad throws in his 3.5 games.

Actually, not as many as I expected. Much more in the .5, or even .25, because that third quarter when he took over in SD had some really bad throws.

I think our memories are playing tricks on us, combining pre-season games (this year and last), the starts and the half in San Diego. He probably had more "ugly" throws in the 3rd quarter in San Diego than the three starts last year combined.

Prior to rewatching every pass attempt earlier today on Game Rewind, I honestly didn't expect to see that. Like you, I 'remembered' a lot more really bad, ugly throws.

Thnikkaman
10-19-2011, 04:12 PM
Good read. Now if Sunday could just come a little faster.

Tned
10-19-2011, 04:13 PM
Good read. Now if Sunday could just come a little faster.

No kidding, I think we're all in the post "Orton's finally benched", post "who's going to be traded" hangover period. Kind of spent talking about the same old things, waiting for the game in Miami to finally get here.

slim
10-19-2011, 04:14 PM
Actually, not as many as I expected. Much more in the .5, or even .25, because that third quarter when he took over in SD had some really bad throws.

I think our memories are playing tricks on us, combining pre-season games (this year and last), the starts and the half in San Diego. He probably had more "ugly" throws in the 3rd quarter in San Diego than the three starts last year combined.

Prior to rewatching every pass attempt earlier today on Game Rewind, I honestly didn't expect to see that. Like you, I 'remembered' a lot more really bad, ugly throws.

My memory may be fuzzy on this, but I would swear he was awful in the first half of the SD last year. I remember some really bad throws in the first half that game.

I mean like not within 5 yards of the WR bad.

jhildebrand
10-19-2011, 04:24 PM
The running game will be better as well-in both quantity and quality

Magnificent Seven
10-19-2011, 04:26 PM
Interesting article. Thanks.

WARHORSE
10-19-2011, 04:29 PM
Good work TNED, I think its spot on.


Doesnt make Tebow the real deal, but its also not taken from the view of someone who simply refuses to acknowledge what he does well.



Id like to add in this, unless I missed it: Tebow in last years games had no prior reps during the season. We all know how much timing means between WRs and their QBs, and how it does not come over night.

Some of those throws he had last year where he was indeed way off, in my mind werent because he was so inaccurate but because he and the WR were on the different pages.

That still happens to Peyton and his WRs every now and again, but it looks simply horrible when the people watching Tim are already screaming: Inaccurate. Too long of a delivery. Bad feet. Horrible mechanics. Etc.


We are going to find out who Tim Tebow is, and my thoughts are that he will improve the team, as well as improve his play as the season goes on.


What we DONT know, is where his mind is at in a lot of these situations.

Is he simply reacting to what he sees in his field of vision as plays develop, or does he understand what the defense is trying to do to him?

His game will be revealed over the next few weeks, and whether good or bad, I am SO glad for it so we can put the what ifs to rest.


Heres hoping hes a stud muffin. :cheers:

Slick
10-19-2011, 04:30 PM
No one knows. To say otherwise is just ego talking.

No, it wasn't a life or death question beefcake.

BeefStew25
10-19-2011, 04:32 PM
No, it wasn't a life or death question beefcake.

I am referring to the Bullgator's and Claymores of the world. The rest of us want to sit back and enjoy the ride.

vettesplus
10-19-2011, 04:35 PM
Tneds Take: Put it in the books. The passing game with Tebow will be better than with Orton

If youíve listened to more than a few minutes of Denver sports radio in the last few weeks, before and after Orton was benched in San Diego, youíve probably heard that Denver will all but abandon the passing game when Tebow is behind center. You would have heard radio hosts stating that Tebow is nothing more than a running back playing in the quarterback spot. That Tebow will do nothing but scramble around, try and run the ball or hand off to McGahee. That Tebow canít play in a traditional offense, the team will have to change to a gimmicky offense, and no team can be successful running a gimmick offense. That trading Lloyd made sense, since the Broncos will no longer have a deep passing game. The comments about the vanishing Broncos passing game have been as varied as they have been frequent on Denver sports radio.

My contention has been, and remains, that the passing game will be better under Tebow than it was with Orton, and that opinion hasnít changed with the Trade of Brandon Lloyd. I havenít had the benefit of watching Tebow in practice, but instead only regular season and preseason games. So, I donít doubt Orton plays better in non-contact, practice sessions, but last time I checked those donít count in the division standings.

First, a couple points of clarification. I am not a Tebow fanatic. I am in the camp that thinks the jury is very much out on whether or not Tim Tebow is capable of being a quality starting NFL quarterback, not to mention becoming a top-tier quarterback. If I was presented with a choice of Tim Tebow or Andrew Luck today, I would choose Andrew Luck. That said, since the jury is still out, I try to guard against assuming Tebow canít make it in the NFL as a quarterback. Also, in preparing to write this Tnedís Take, I reviewed every pass that Tim Tebow threw in his three starts last year.

As the NFL is a stats focused league, itís impossible to have a discussion of this type without digging into the stats, so weíll take a brief look at how Tebow and Orton compare based on passing stats.

This year, Kyle Orton has had one 100+ point passer rating game in five starts, with an overall rating of 75.7. He has thrown seven picks against eight touchdowns. Last year, Ortonís numbers are slightly better, with four 100+ passer rating games in 13 starts, and an overall passer rating of 87.5. He threw nine picks against 20 touchdowns. His yards per attempt in 2010 were 7.34 (best of his career) and 6.32 in his five starts in 2011.

In Tebowís three starts last season, he had one 100+ yard passer rating game. An overall passer rating (in his starts) of 81.9. He threw three picks against five touchdowns. His yards per attempt were 8.0, which is higher than any year of Ortonís career. I didnít include the second half of the San Diego game when Tebow took over for a benched Orton, but Tebow had a 100+ passer rating in that game, added a passing Touchdown and his yards per attempt were 7.9. In addition to Tebowís passing stats, he added six rushing touchdowns and twelve first downs in the nine games he played in last season, and a rushing touchdown and two first downs in the half of football played in 2011.

So, just purely based on passing stats, Tebow has a similar quarterback passer rating, similar TD to INT ratio (Orton much worse this year), but Tebow has a better yards per pass attempt and adds the rushing first downs and touchdowns. For those not familiar with the yards per attempt stat, by going with yards per attempt instead of yards per completion, the quarterback with the lower completion percentage is typically hurt, but as you can see, Tebow still did better than Orton, even with a lower completion percentage. This indicates that Tebowís completed passes were far more effective than Ortonís completed passes.

While just looking at stats paints a very favorable comparison of Tim Tebow to Kyle Orton, thatís only part of the story. Instead, watching both quarterbacks in live game action tells the real story. Something Iím convinced that many on the Denver sports talk shows have not done, or at least they have not taken the time to rewatch Tim Tebowís 2010 starts beyond what they remember from watching the games live almost a year ago.

Iím going to throw one more stat out, to help paint the picture. Brandon Lloyd was targeted 153 times last year, but only caught 77 balls. At the same time, Pro Football Focus states that Lloyd only had 4 drops in 2010. What happened to the other 72 targets? They were a combination of defended passes and passes that were considered uncatchable. Anyone that has reviewed Kyle Ortonís throws of the last two years knows that he routinely throws into double or triple coverage (he often locks on to a receiver and throws whether open or not) and routinely throws off target balls. Ortonís throws, especially the short to mid-length throws over the middle and crossing routes are routinely late and to the back hip or shoulder of the receiver, requiring them to attempt a twisting catch against the direction they are running. This should not be confused with intentionally throwing to the back shoulder on a sideline route or the corner of the endzone, instead these are poorly thrown balls behind the receiver.

Itís this inherent inaccuracy and locking on to his primary receiver that leads to 72 balls thrown to Brandon Lloyd beingÖ. In Ė Com Ė Plete. Beyond the inaccuracy, Orton is most comfortable throwing short (between the line of scrimmage and 7-10 yards downfield) or a bomb, with little in between. As Orton has always been an inaccurate deep ball thrower (he throws a line drive or floater, no touch on the long ball), the defense doesnít respect and defend that part of his game. As a result, defenses tended to pack themselves between the line of scrimmage and first down sticks, causing congestion that prevented receivers from getting separation on the short routes that Orton favors. A regular knock on the Broncos receivers is that they canít get separation, but when the defense is allowed to jam the ten yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and the receivers are running routes within that ten yard box, itís very hard to get separation amongst all that defender traffic.

Those are some of the reasons that the passing game has been so ineffective with Orton as the starter. He has racked up some big passing numbers in his two plus years in Denver, but most of those have come in garbage time Ė when the other team was up by multiple scores and transitioned to a soft or prevent defense, opening up Ortonís 10-15 yard comfort zone.

So, the question remains as to why a Tebow led passing game will be better than the inept passing game under Orton? In order to address that, letís take a look at some of the claims from local sports radio about why Tebow canít be successful and why the Broncos passing game will suffer with Tebow under center:

1. Tebowís first instinct is to run. He will make one read, and then tuck and run.

I reviewed the almost 100 Tim Tebow passing plays from 2010 and nothing could be farther from the reality displayed on the field. While Tebow did at times scramble (something you want from a mobile QB when the pocket is breaking down), in nearly every case he scrambled to extend the pass play, not to gain yards. There were times when outside pressure prevented him from escaping the pocket and extending the play, and in those rare cases, he ran up the middle. There were also a handful of plays where when scrambling to the left or right, and seeing no defender in front, he took off. However, his first instinct (or at least visible action on field) was to stay in the pocket until a receiver was open, or to get out of the pocket, staying behind the line of scrimmage until a receiver is open. There was no evidence of a quarterback who makes one read, and then tucks the ball and runs. Quite the opposite was on display.

2. Tebow isnít an accurate passer. He isnít accurate enough to be an NFL quarterback.

Again, a review of every 2010 pass shows this to be completely inaccurate (inaccurate media, not Tebow). Unlike Kyle Orton who routinely throws off target balls behind receivers on the move, Tebowís balls were almost always in front of them, giving the receiver an opportunity to catch the ball. The vast majority of balls that he didnít throw away were right on target, with a handful being a little high. Like every quarterback, especially young ones, he threw some balls that he shouldnít have, a few resulting in picks, while others in incompletions. However, more times than not, when the play wasnít there, he threw it away. A significant number of his incompletions were balls he threw away when no receiver was open.

3. Defenses will simply stack the box and not allow Tebow to run the ball, and he canít beat them with the pass.

As noted, the only time Tebow was quick to take off running (other than designed runs) was when the pocket collapsed and the choice was scramble up the middle or get sacked. The fact is that Tebow has not been the run-first quarterback that the local media chooses to portray him as being. Instead, the Broncos ran a good mixture of shotgun and snaps with Tebow under center, a good mixture of run and pass plays, and enough designed quarterback runs to force the defense to defend against a Tebow run on every play. In his three starts last year, Tebowís attempts went from 16 in his first start (when he was clearly being slowly worked in to the passing game) to 36 attempts in his third start. There was no indication in those three games that Tebow wonít be able to throw the ball as often as the game plan or game situation dictates.

4. Tebow canít throw the deep ball. In those rare cases when he does throw the ball, all Tebow can do effectively is throw screen passes or short passes.

Last year, in his three starts, Tebow made every type of throw with accuracy. While he was very effective on the screens and short passes, because he often set them up with a run fake, the short pass was in no way the only passes he threw, or that he threw well. While Kyle Orton excelled on passes from 0-10 yards, while being hit and miss on the mid and long throws, Tebow was typically very accurate on the mid to long range balls. In fact, Tebow threw a much better, more on target long ball than Orton does. Where Orton only throws a line drive or high floater, forcing his receiver to almost always stop to avoid an underthrow, or see the line drive sail over his head, Tebowís balls were either right on target, or just slightly off target, but with the good arch and hang time that you want on a long ball. Unfortunately, most commentary is done on his stats or highlight/lowlights, which doesnít give the full picture. Take away his throw always and throws on the run under extreme duress, and there were very few balls last year from Tebow that were not Ďcatchableí balls. Some were dropped, some were defensed by a defender, and of course some were off target. However, the vast majority of his throws were well thrown and on target. Far, far from the picture that local Denver sports radio paint of a quarterback who would have a hard time hitting water if he fell out of a boat.


Conclusion:

So, to summarize all of that into why Tim Tebowís passing offense will be better than Ortonís. Ortonís lack of mobility, inaccurate deep ball, and preference to throw the ball between the line of scrimmage and seven to ten yards downfield, resulted in a mass of defenders creating congestion in Ortonís small area of comfort. When Tebow is the quarterback, the defense not only has to defend his running ability but also his mid to deep range throws. Neither of which was a strong part of Ortonís game, so defenses didnít defend heavily against either. Defenses will need to either keep a spy on Tebow, or run schemes that keep him from getting to the edge and running for a first down. However, when teams dedicate one or more players to contain Tebow, they will do so by sacrificing coverage in the secondary.

A review of all of Tebowsí 2010 passes shows that he doesnít scramble to run, but scrambles to extend passing plays. A fact that is often detailed in the NFL in regards to the importance of a pass rush, is that given enough time receivers will always get open. The two ways that a quarterback can take advantage of that fact are to have an impenetrable offensive line that gives the quarterback as much time as he needs, or a quarterback that extends a play by scrambling out of the pocket. Tebowís mobility affords him both options. When the offensive line holds firm, he can wait for routes to develop and receivers to come open, when the protection breaks down, he can get out of the pocket and by the time his receivers need to get open.

Now, all of this is predicated on Tebow being accurate enough to hit open receivers. Assuming he hasnít regressed from his three starts last year, he is clearly accurate enough to do just that. Due to the fact that the Broncos defense is better this year, and Fox likes to run a conservative, run first offense, I wouldnít expect Tebow to put up the big yardage numbers that Orton racked up in garbage time. However, when it comes to moving the chains, scoring points and yards per attempt, the Tebow led passing game will be far more effective than it was under Kyle Orton.


damn, must have alot of time on your hands.......:beer:

dogfish
10-19-2011, 04:41 PM
I am still secretly holding out hope we can make an 11 game run. I know it sounds crazy...



IMO playoffs are very real for us.

you brought the good shit back from china. . .

holler at your boy!

dogfish
10-19-2011, 04:43 PM
Watch Tebow's YPA. That will be the "tell". Best QB stat there is, and Orton usually stank at it.

nope. . . i'm going to be watching mr. tebow's completion percentage-- that's what's going to tell me what i need to know about him. . . i already know he can throw it down the field-- his deep accuracy is actually better than short-to-intermediate. . .

Tned
10-19-2011, 04:46 PM
damn, must have alot of time on your hands.......:beer:

I think and type fast...

Tned
10-19-2011, 04:53 PM
nope. . . i'm going to be watching mr. tebow's completion percentage-- that's what's going to tell me what i need to know about him. . . i already know he can throw it down the field-- his deep accuracy is actually better than short-to-intermediate. . .

Yep. If it's not in the 55%+ range, it's going to be hard to be successful. Because he will do other things and make other plays, he can afford to be lower than an immobile pocket passer, but <=50% isn't going to cut it.

There was a time, not too long ago, that 55% was a good completion percentage, but in today's NFL, that's lagging pretty far behind.

To give an idea, here are the top 40 QBs (based on yards) in the NFL this year, with their attempts, completion percentages, passer rating and yards/game:



ATT PCT RATE YDS/G PLAYER
208 70.2 122.5 339 Aaron Rodgers, QB
16 68.8 47.7 54 Mike Kafka, QB
264 68.6 97 359 Drew Brees, QB
237 67.5 104.8 361 Tom Brady, QB
186 67.2 87.6 307 Philip Rivers, QB
140 66.4 89.7 189 Matt Cassel, QB
202 66.3 95.3 246 Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
193 65.3 91.7 318 Tony Romo, QB
181 64.6 95.9 283 Matt Hasselbeck, QB
196 63.8 101.1 296 Eli Manning, QB
158 63.3 95.2 182 Alex Smith, QB
157 63.1 81 202 Tarvaris Jackson, QB
219 62.6 78.2 243 Josh Freeman, QB
189 62.4 84.3 219 Andy Dalton, QB
195 62.1 90 263 Ben Roethlisberger, QB
237 62 98.2 288 Matthew Stafford, QB
200 61.5 84.4 262 Michael Vick, QB
218 61.5 82.1 244 Matt Ryan, QB
165 60.6 84.2 195 Jason Campbell, QB
156 60.3 82.9 171 Donovan McNabb, QB
200 60 87.8 246 Jay Cutler, QB
201 59.2 90.7 266 Matt Schaub, QB
172 58.7 77.2 256 Kevin Kolb, QB
155 58.7 75.7 196 Kyle Orton, QB
229 58.5 78.3 308 Cam Newton, QB
19 57.9 100.5 149 Charlie Whitehurst, QB
112 57.1 79 217 Chad Henne, QB
14 57.1 79.5 100 Kyle Boller, QB
198 56.1 82.3 229 Mark Sanchez, QB
217 55.8 78.1 240 Colt McCoy, QB
165 55.8 66.5 226 Rex Grossman, QB
60 55 52.8 186 Matt Moore, QB
102 54.9 93 202 Curtis Painter, QB
43 53.5 30.6 117 Luke McCown, QB
15 53.3 79 117 John Beck, QB
17 52.9 70.5 99 Christian Ponder, QB
195 52.8 72 234 Sam Bradford, QB
173 51.4 79.6 256 Joe Flacco, QB
98 49 65.9 160 Kerry Collins, QB
123 48.8 71.1 143 Blaine Gabbert, QB

NightTerror218
10-19-2011, 04:57 PM
Nice read....I think we will see big improvement over the SD game. 1st game jitters, going in at half time and the fact he same some tape on himself to study to see areas needs to work on and all.

broncobryce
10-19-2011, 05:13 PM
You mean you watched the games instead of just listening to what espn says?! Blasphemy!

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NightTerror218
10-19-2011, 05:15 PM
Tned is my new fav column writer....even it is BF

FlyByU
10-19-2011, 05:44 PM
Tneds Take: Put it in the books. The passing game with Tebow will be better than with Orton

I didn't want to Quote it all but i read it all and you did an excellent job and provided facts with your opinion.

Good job loved it. :beer:

I Eat Staples
10-19-2011, 06:24 PM
The only thing I disagree with is that to me, Tebow looked pretty inaccurate on a lot of his throws. But I didn't go back and watch all of his passes like you said you did, so I'll reluctantly take your word for it.

Right now I'm just looking forward to seeing Tebow play this year and see what he can do. I honestly hope he either does amazing or terrible, because if he's average or inconsistent we'll still be unsure as to whether or not we need to draft a QB, and I want that question answered ASAP.

Tned
10-19-2011, 07:15 PM
Here's a nice quote from Fox today:


On Tebow's improvement since last week

"Tim is the kind of guy [where] work ethic isn't an issue. He's going to work as hard as anybody that's in the NFL, in my opinion. He's worked very hard. I'm sure our opponents are going to be looking at the three games he started a year ago. I think he's progressed quite a bit since then. He's improved every day."

NightTerror218
10-19-2011, 07:18 PM
Here's a nice quote from Fox today:


On Tebow's improvement since last week

"Tim is the kind of guy [where] work ethic isn't an issue. He's going to work as hard as anybody that's in the NFL, in my opinion. He's worked very hard. I'm sure our opponents are going to be looking at the three games he started a year ago. I think he's progressed quite a bit since then. He's improved every day."

He is actually get 1st team reps and more coaching now. He should improve drastically i would think. Atleast in game time performance (accuracy, timing, ect) and some in mechanics (3/5/7 drops and footwork).

Dreadnought
10-19-2011, 07:27 PM
nope. . . i'm going to be watching mr. tebow's completion percentage-- that's what's going to tell me what i need to know about him. . . i already know he can throw it down the field-- his deep accuracy is actually better than short-to-intermediate. . .

You can fake a completion % by pumping it up with bubble screens or hitting 5 yard passes on 3rd and 10 - see also, Orton, K. or Harrington, J. You can't fake YPA. If our boy is at 7.5 or 8.0 YPA or higher for the year we are winning us some ball games.

Tned
10-19-2011, 07:34 PM
You can fake a completion % by pumping it up with bubble screens or hitting 5 yard passes on 3rd and 10 - see also, Orton, K. or Harrington, J. You can't fake YPA. If our boy is at 7.5 or 8.0 YPA or higher for the year we are winning us some ball games.

One could argue that being a few points lower in completion percentage can be offset by his mobility plays, but only if the result is producing 1st downs & points

HORSEPOWER 56
10-19-2011, 07:37 PM
nope. . . i'm going to be watching mr. tebow's completion percentage-- that's what's going to tell me what i need to know about him. . . i already know he can throw it down the field-- his deep accuracy is actually better than short-to-intermediate. . .

I think completion percentage is overrated. A guy can throw 19/22 for 300 yds but if those 3 incompletions are INTs returned for TDs and put you in a 21 point hole, who gives a shit that he completed the other 19?

Conversely, if a QB is incomplete on 1st down, incomplete on second down, and then throws for 12 yards and a 1st on 3rd down, who cares that he's 1/3 for 12 yards?

John Elway was a sub 60% passer for most of his career. Didn't stop him from being a winner. He made plays when he had to.

To me, it will be about 3rd down conversion %, redzone%, and most importantly, the final score. Tebow can go 10/30 for 100 yards with 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs as long as we win, I DON'T GIVE A DAMN ABOUT THE STAT LINE!

dogfish
10-19-2011, 07:43 PM
You can fake a completion % by pumping it up with bubble screens or hitting 5 yard passes on 3rd and 10 - see also, Orton, K. or Harrington, J. You can't fake YPA. If our boy is at 7.5 or 8.0 YPA or higher for the year we are winning us some ball games.

nonsense. . . ;)

cam newton (8.1) and curtis painter (7.9) both have gaudy YPA this year, with one win and at least ten losses between 'em. . . and if bubble screens as easy completions can artificially enhance completion percentage, then what do all the YAC you get from well-run screens do to YPA numbers? same thing, i reckon. . .

in any case, as i stated earlier, i'm not focused on whether he can squeeze out a couple wins or not, as that's a team stat anyway. . . what i'm looking for is whether he has adequate day-to-day, play-to-play skills to consistently move the offense. . . i can see him being a high YPC, low completion % guy that makes a living off busted plays on scrambles, which is fine to a point-- but if he can't make at least a certain percentage of the necessary routine completions, you can't seriously contend with him. . . and i'll certainly be watching accuracy as it happens on the field, as much as the numbers-- you obviously have to figure in catchable dropped passes, and see whether he's leading guys, or making them constantly adjust to bad throws, etc etc. . .

again, that's what i want to see-- if he can do enough of the conventional stuff that we need him to. . . the big plays i'm not so much worried about-- i just expect those to come as a matter of course, they go along with his play style. . . in any case, JMO-- but as i watch guys in the top tier of QBs operate, i think the odds of winning anything significant if you don't have a guy that can really sling it are pretty much awful. . . in my heart, i really suspect tim would have been so much better off playing twenty years ago. . .

Sinthor
10-19-2011, 07:45 PM
You know, I have to say you stated things perfectly. I'm not a "Tebow's a HOF QB NOW" guy either. He has things to work on. But I DO think he has potential and has never been as bad as these detractors say. I think most of the negativity is because he doesn't have the traditional QB body type, is left handed, etc.

In those game and in preseason, even last year's pre-season, Tebow threw the long ball WELL. How does that figure into a guy who "can't throw?" What I think happened is that you had all of that talk and then in the games last year he'd typically throw one or two dirt balls and there would be the evidence he's not accurate and can't throw. Ignoring of course that most rookies throw around 50% in their first few starts, etc. I haven't seen him throw a dirt ball all year so far in pre-season or regular. Some around the feet, but not the dirt ball feet in front of the receiver like last year. So I think that's evidence he's improved. I'm anxious to see how he'll do. Frankly, I think this Miami game is likely to be one of those weird NFL coincidences with the honoring of the Gator team, etc. and I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos have a BIG win. Of course, it won't matter to the critics because Miami's so bad, but it will give the Broncos a lot of confidence, if it happens that way.

Like your point about the '1 read and run' stuff as well. It just doesn't happen in the games. There were times the announcers commented on this last year but that made me nuts because those plays were pretty obviously designed QB runs and draws. I will say that like every young QB I've seen to date, Tebow does take longer than he "should" (as an established vet, anyway) to MAKE those reads and sometimes has to scramble or run before he's made it through his progressions, but he DOES try to get through them.

For all the talk of inaccuracy, those same announcers in games last year were also confronted with throws they had to compliment as being "NFL type throws" or "great throws." We'll just see. I think you nailed things overall though and the bottom line is that WE DON'T KNOW how Tebow will work out. No one does. He could work out to be really good, or he could prove to be not consistent enough to "make it" as a #1 guy. Time will tell. It's obvious to me however that WORST CASE the guy can play and can probably have a career as a backup/changeup type of guy. That alone would translate to bad news for all the "Tebow can't play in the NFL" types, although it obviously wouldn't be ideal either.

Good job. I'm excited for Sunday and like I said, I keep getting the feeling that this could be a big game in a lot of ways.

dogfish
10-19-2011, 07:50 PM
John Elway was a sub 60% passer for most of his career. Didn't stop him from being a winner. He made plays when he had to.

To me, it will be about 3rd down conversion %, redzone%, and most importantly, the final score. Tebow can go 10/30 for 100 yards with 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs as long as we win, I DON'T GIVE A DAMN ABOUT THE STAT LINE!

john elway played in a different NFL world, homeboy-- you know that. . . his numbers would be FAR different in today's ultra QB-friendly league. . .


also, how many games do you think we can win wiht 100 passing yards? think we'll ever beat a NE or green bay with those numbers?

now, don't get me wrong-- i'm as results oriented as anyone else. . . the thread asks about numbers, and in this particular case i happen to think that one is a particularly important indicator for tebow's pro ability, as it reflects what i perceive to be his biggest weakness. . .

obviously you want to look at TD:INT ratio, it's vital. . . i'm not sure that it's an ultimate determinant with a virtual rookie QB on this team, though. . . manning tossed thirty picks his first year, but he also showed all the necessary skills-- you knew the decision-making and ability to read defenses would come along, and i belive they will with tim as well. . . that's why i won't be looking for that stuff quite AS much. . .

my number one concern with tim is whether he can be consistently accurate enough to move the chains efficiently. . . if he can do that, the other stuff will come. . . i don't worry about whether he can inspire the troops, or find a guy downfield on the occasional busted play. . .

TXBRONC
10-19-2011, 08:46 PM
Very well done T.

When you mentioned that Orton likes to throw ball between 0-10 yards of the line of scrimmage I was reminded that we had that conversation when Orton first arrived. Many of us said that eventually defenses would start sitting on short routes causing things to become congested for the receiver corp. I guess the proof is in the pudding so to speak.

TXBRONC
10-19-2011, 08:52 PM
Actually, not as many as I expected. Much more in the .5, or even .25, because that third quarter when he took over in SD had some really bad throws.

I think our memories are playing tricks on us, combining pre-season games (this year and last), the starts and the half in San Diego. He probably had more "ugly" throws in the 3rd quarter in San Diego than the three starts last year combined.

Prior to rewatching every pass attempt earlier today on Game Rewind, I honestly didn't expect to see that. Like you, I 'remembered' a lot more really bad, ugly throws.

Tebow looked very rusty in the 3rd quarter of the San Diego game. IIRC he short hopped several of his misses. That's not a complaint, the guy hadn't thrown a pass in game over a month so it's no wonder he looked rusty and that's besides the fact he was thrown into a middle of game.

Rick
10-19-2011, 09:30 PM
I agree Tned.

I am not a Tebow fanatic or anything but I do believe his style of play will open up the offense big time.

I might be in the minority but I believe Royal will become a thing in this offense again. I believe all 3 receivers will be making big plays as with Tebows style teams HAVE to cover them and let Tebow run or they play to stop the run and Tebow is a good enough passer to hit whomever is left wide open.

If the defense has to guess what will happen every time the QB gets the ball that creates hesitation and people open up.

Northman
10-19-2011, 09:50 PM
. manning tossed thirty picks his first year, but he also showed all the necessary skills-- you knew the decision-making and ability to read defenses would come along, and i belive they will with tim as well. . . that's why i won't be looking for that stuff quite AS much. . .

my number one concern with tim is whether he can be consistently accurate enough to move the chains efficiently. . . if he can do that, the other stuff will come. . .

Thats really the jist of it right there. People have to remember right now that this will only be his 4th game with an actual start. It may be a rough season to watch at times but the important thing is can he continue to grow as a passer and make good decisions with the ball. I think the biggest thing for him the next few games is building chemistry with the offense.

horsepig
10-19-2011, 10:30 PM
Yeah, we're going to have to give him at least 5-6 weeks to become comfortable and settled in the offense.

Tned
10-19-2011, 10:47 PM
Thats really the jist of it right there. People have to remember right now that this will only be his 4th game with an actual start. It may be a rough season to watch at times but the important thing is can he continue to grow as a passer and make good decisions with the ball. I think the biggest thing for him the next few games is building chemistry with the offense.

I'm in the clear, right? I didn't insult any fans with this Tned's Take, did I? I was worried about that when writing this one... ;)

TXBRONC
10-19-2011, 10:49 PM
If Tebow should succeed I will enjoy watching Hoge and Dilfer looking like someone removed their prostate glands with a butter knife.

TXBRONC
10-19-2011, 10:51 PM
I'm in the clear, right? I didn't insult any fans with this Tned's Take, did I? I was worried about that when writing this one... ;)

Since our resident Ortonologist closed shop you're in the clear.

BroncoJoe
10-19-2011, 11:35 PM
Excellent write-up T.

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LordTrychon
10-20-2011, 08:53 AM
john elway played in a different NFL world, homeboy-- you know that. . . his numbers would be FAR different in today's ultra QB-friendly league. . .


also, how many games do you think we can win wiht 100 passing yards? think we'll ever beat a NE or green bay with those numbers?

now, don't get me wrong-- i'm as results oriented as anyone else. . . the thread asks about numbers, and in this particular case i happen to think that one is a particularly important indicator for tebow's pro ability, as it reflects what i perceive to be his biggest weakness. . .

obviously you want to look at TD:INT ratio, it's vital. . . i'm not sure that it's an ultimate determinant with a virtual rookie QB on this team, though. . . manning tossed thirty picks his first year, but he also showed all the necessary skills-- you knew the decision-making and ability to read defenses would come along, and i belive they will with tim as well. . . that's why i won't be looking for that stuff quite AS much. . .

my number one concern with tim is whether he can be consistently accurate enough to move the chains efficiently. . . if he can do that, the other stuff will come. . . i don't worry about whether he can inspire the troops, or find a guy downfield on the occasional busted play. . .

Yeah, but there's a reason why Tned said to pay attention to YPA rather than YPC. (responding to your other post more than this one, but it was on the right page. :) )

No, YPA does not tell all. No stat does. I'm like you in that I'm looking to see him complete the 'normal' QB stuff that you expect any QB to. However, YPA tells more than YPC because it does take into account the completion percentage. You can't counter its importance by showing a couple YPC oddities. :P

I agree that Manning as a rookie is a good example. He didn't play that well... but he showed that he had the tools necessary to improve. I'm not by any stretch saying Tebow is Manning... but just that he can play badly and show improvement from week to week and that could be enough.

Conversely, he could win some games and not show any improvement in making the standard pocket plays that you need in the long haul to be consistent over a long period and especially in the playoffs. Vince Young comes to mind. He was capable of making big plays and he opened up the running game with his style of play. He won games.

Granted, Vince Young was ultimately was held back by his head, which nobody expects from Tebow. Maybe Vick is a better example. He could get his team to the playoffs in ATL, but never over the hump, as electrifying as he was. When he got to Philly, he finally showed the willingness to play from the pocket and try to improve that part of his game, and then people started talking SB.

I want to win games... but from Tebow, I want to see some NFL style QBing. Not to say I don't want to see him throw in the improvised great play here and there when a play breaks down. That's fun too.

Just glad that it's nearly Sunday.

ydave77
10-20-2011, 11:43 AM
Yep. If it's not in the 55%+ range, it's going to be hard to be successful. Because he will do other things and make other plays, he can afford to be lower than an immobile pocket passer, but <=50% isn't going to cut it.

There was a time, not too long ago, that 55% was a good completion percentage, but in today's NFL, that's lagging pretty far behind.

To give an idea, here are the top 40 QBs (based on yards) in the NFL this year, with their attempts, completion percentages, passer rating and yards/game:



ATT PCT RATE YDS/G PLAYER
208 70.2 122.5 339 Aaron Rodgers, QB
16 68.8 47.7 54 Mike Kafka, QB
264 68.6 97 359 Drew Brees, QB
237 67.5 104.8 361 Tom Brady, QB
186 67.2 87.6 307 Philip Rivers, QB
140 66.4 89.7 189 Matt Cassel, QB
202 66.3 95.3 246 Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
193 65.3 91.7 318 Tony Romo, QB
181 64.6 95.9 283 Matt Hasselbeck, QB
196 63.8 101.1 296 Eli Manning, QB
158 63.3 95.2 182 Alex Smith, QB
157 63.1 81 202 Tarvaris Jackson, QB
219 62.6 78.2 243 Josh Freeman, QB
189 62.4 84.3 219 Andy Dalton, QB
195 62.1 90 263 Ben Roethlisberger, QB
237 62 98.2 288 Matthew Stafford, QB
200 61.5 84.4 262 Michael Vick, QB
218 61.5 82.1 244 Matt Ryan, QB
165 60.6 84.2 195 Jason Campbell, QB
156 60.3 82.9 171 Donovan McNabb, QB
200 60 87.8 246 Jay Cutler, QB
201 59.2 90.7 266 Matt Schaub, QB
172 58.7 77.2 256 Kevin Kolb, QB
155 58.7 75.7 196 Kyle Orton, QB
229 58.5 78.3 308 Cam Newton, QB
19 57.9 100.5 149 Charlie Whitehurst, QB
112 57.1 79 217 Chad Henne, QB
14 57.1 79.5 100 Kyle Boller, QB
198 56.1 82.3 229 Mark Sanchez, QB
217 55.8 78.1 240 Colt McCoy, QB
165 55.8 66.5 226 Rex Grossman, QB
60 55 52.8 186 Matt Moore, QB
102 54.9 93 202 Curtis Painter, QB
43 53.5 30.6 117 Luke McCown, QB
15 53.3 79 117 John Beck, QB
17 52.9 70.5 99 Christian Ponder, QB
195 52.8 72 234 Sam Bradford, QB
173 51.4 79.6 256 Joe Flacco, QB
98 49 65.9 160 Kerry Collins, QB
123 48.8 71.1 143 Blaine Gabbert, QB


Nice table. I think Tebow playing the NFL 10-15 years ago would have been a flat stud. Need to run the ball, and get a QB who can make a few big time 3rd down plays, one way or another.
With the relaxed rules, aiding QBs/WRs, you need its all about passing the ball. I think for Tebow to be franchise QB material, we need to be at 60%+, and that gives him leeway because of his running ability. Looking at your table, and all the QB records that will fall in the next few years, it seems like for a pure pocket QB elite might be 65%+.

Tned
10-20-2011, 11:46 AM
Nice table. I think Tebow playing the NFL 10-15 years ago would have been a flat stud. Need to run the ball, and get a QB who can make a few big time 3rd down plays, one way or another.
With the relaxed rules, aiding QBs/WRs, you need its all about passing the ball. I think for Tebow to be franchise QB material, we need to be at 60%+, and that gives him leeway because of his running ability. Looking at your table, and all the QB records that will fall in the next few years, it seems like for a pure pocket QB elite might be 65%+.

Agreed. I think short term, like his games this year, possibly even next year, is where I was thinking the 55% range would be 'acceptable' if he's making other plays to move the chains, and if his YPA is still up with the big boys, meaning the completions he does make are higher than those with a higher completion percentage.

Cugel
10-20-2011, 11:48 AM
I agree that Manning as a rookie is a good example. He didn't play that well... but he showed that he had the tools necessary to improve. I'm not by any stretch saying Tebow is Manning... but just that he can play badly and show improvement from week to week and that could be enough.

Conversely, he could win some games and not show any improvement in making the standard pocket plays that you need in the long haul to be consistent over a long period and especially in the playoffs. Vince Young comes to mind. He was capable of making big plays and he opened up the running game with his style of play. He won games.

Granted, Vince Young was ultimately was held back by his head, which nobody expects from Tebow. Maybe Vick is a better example. He could get his team to the playoffs in ATL, but never over the hump, as electrifying as he was. When he got to Philly, he finally showed the willingness to play from the pocket and try to improve that part of his game, and then people started talking SB.

I want to win games... but from Tebow, I want to see some NFL style QBing. Not to say I don't want to see him throw in the improvised great play here and there when a play breaks down. That's fun too.

This is a point that lots of fans miss Lord T. EFX will NOT be judging Tebow solely or perhaps even largely on his wins-losses. Obviously they want to see wins, since that's the ultimate stat.

But, they are evaluating whether this guy can be the Franchise QB that you keep around for 10 years and build around and rely on him to take the team to a SB.

And to do that he's got to be an elite QB in the NFL.


Q: Phil. What is your opinion on the importance of a Pro Bowl QB in the NFL and the likelihood of winning without a quality QB? I'd like Denver to lose the remaining games so they have the first pick next year and can draft Standford's Luck.

Simms: To win big in the NFL, especially now, you can't win without a Pro Bowl-type quarterback. There is simply too much focus on throwing the football in the league right now.

Can you get it done in other ways? Maybe, but it's very, very hard. When the talent level is very good and so close on both teams, you need a Pro Bowl-type quarterback who can make the big throws to win the game.

Can Tebow learn to be a pocket passing QB? Who knows? All the people insisting that he can or can't are just passing wind! They've got a bias and some opinions, but no FACTS because the FACTS aren't in yet.

EFX will watch Tebow and ask themselves ONE key question: "Is he developing? Does it look like he will develop the skills necessary? Is he becoming a QB we can feel confident will be our franchise QB moving forward and we can build around him , or do we need to draft a QB in 2012?"

Cugel
10-20-2011, 11:55 AM
Nice table. I think Tebow playing the NFL 10-15 years ago would have been a flat stud. Need to run the ball, and get a QB who can make a few big time 3rd down plays, one way or another.
With the relaxed rules, aiding QBs/WRs, you need its all about passing the ball. I think for Tebow to be franchise QB material, we need to be at 60%+, and that gives him leeway because of his running ability. Looking at your table, and all the QB records that will fall in the next few years, it seems like for a pure pocket QB elite might be 65%+.

There is NO leeway for "running ability" because no NFL team wants its QB to run on a regular basis. That includes Tebow. They will let him run some this season because he struggles to in the pocket right now, and they want to give him a fair chance.

But seeing Tebow running 10-15 times a game next season? NO WAY! He's earning too much money for them to be comfortable letting him run around in space while opposing LBs come screaming in to jack him up. A running QB is "fair game" for big hits that would draw a flag if he were in the pocket. More hits = more risk of injury. And then that huge salary is sitting in the training room and your entire season is down the toilet.

Keeping the starting QB healthy is a huge part of winning consistently in the NFL. And having the QB run a lot does not help.

Tebow is going to have to learn to become a pure pocket passing QB who runs when he has to. And he will be evaluated on his passing ability.

Elway had to learn to stay in the pocket and make accurate throws and he's said that that was the key to his wining SBs. He wants to see Tebow making that same transition.

Cugel
10-20-2011, 11:59 AM
Here in a single photo is why NFL teams don't like their QB running around outside the pocket more than is absolutely necessary:

http://images.usatoday.com/sports/_photos/2007/01/18/rgannon.jpg
That's Tony Siragusa crushing Rich Gannon's shoulder and ending any chance for the Raiders to win the SB that season (and as it turned out ending perhaps their best chance for a SB).

Raider fans have not forgotten that hit because it took away what might well have been a Raider Championship season.


Jon Ritchie will never get over the day his Super Bowl ring was "stolen." . . . . (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2007-01-18-sw-conference-championships_x.htm)
Ritchie — Oakland's fullback from 1998 to 2002 — was so positive the Raiders would run the postseason table, he even visualized the Super Bowl ring that would commemorate the Raiders' soon-to be fourth Super Bowl title. . . .Then the unthinkable happened. The old adage claims defense wins championships. But so can sumo-sized defensive tackles who belly-flop on your quarterback. . . . .Tony Siragusa, Baltimore's 342-pound defensive tackle, pancaked Gannon into the turf, dislocating his throwing shoulder. Just as sudden as Siragusa's pile-driving body slam, Ritchie's Super Bowl vision faded to black in a crushing 16-3 loss. . . . .

"I had a lot of family at that championship game when Tony Siragusa fell on Rich Gannon's throwing shoulder," says Ritchie, now an ESPN Cold Pizza contributor. "They were waiting for me. But I was so devastated I drove off by myself into the wilds of Tilden Park in Berkley until long after sundown. "I was probably out there for five hours, just crying. I was just hoping no one drove by who I knew to see me sitting there just a blubbering mess."

Tned
10-20-2011, 12:01 PM
There is NO leeway for "running ability" because no NFL team wants its QB to run on a regular basis. That includes Tebow. They will let him run some this season because he struggles to in the pocket right now, and they want to give him a fair chance.

But seeing Tebow running 10-15 times a game next season? NO WAY! He's earning too much money for them to be comfortable letting him run around in space while opposing LBs come screaming in to jack him up. A running QB is "fair game" for big hits that would draw a flag if he were in the pocket. More hits = more risk of injury. And then that huge salary is sitting in the training room and your entire season is down the toilet.

Keeping the starting QB healthy is a huge part of winning consistently in the NFL. And having the QB run a lot does not help.

Tebow is going to have to learn to become a pure pocket passing QB who runs when he has to. And he will be evaluated on his passing ability.

Elway had to learn to stay in the pocket and make accurate throws and he's said that that was the key to his wining SBs. He wants to see Tebow making that same transition.

The way you wrote this is a bit too much of an absolute. The fact is, it depends on how and where he runs.

If his running ability allows him to get out of the pocket, extend passing plays and make big plays where other QBs would be sacked or have to throw it away, then that running ability does count for something and doesn't put him in harms way. Same with getting to the edge and if the play doesn't open up, heading up field and out of bounds for a 5 or 10 yard gain.

This type of play would allow him to move the chains and score points, even if his completion percentage is lower than a pure pocket passer.

Tned
10-20-2011, 12:04 PM
Here in a single photo is why NFL teams don't like their QB running around outside the pocket more than is absolutely necessary:

http://images.usatoday.com/sports/_photos/2007/01/18/rgannon.jpg
That's Tony Siragusa crushing Rich Gannon's shoulder and ending any chance for the Raiders to win the SB that season (and as it turned out ending perhaps their best chance for a SB).

Raider fans have not forgotten that hit because it took away what might well have been a Raider Championship season.

What about Palmer's knee or Brady's knee? Injuries happen. I don't disagree with the fact that a QB running draws 15 times a game is not smart, but if we want to talk about QB game or career ending injuries, let's be real about where and how they happen.

NightTerror218
10-20-2011, 12:09 PM
What about Palmer's knee or Brady's knee? Injuries happen. I don't disagree with the fact that a QB running draws 15 times a game is not smart, but if we want to talk about QB game or career ending injuries, let's be real about where and how they happen.

Tned how many times has Tebow ran into defenders? Doesn't he tend to run if there are no depends when he rolls out of pocket and then runs out of bound unless into the endzone? I ask you because you want more tape.

Tned
10-20-2011, 12:24 PM
Tned how many times has Tebow ran into defenders? Doesn't he tend to run if there are no depends when he rolls out of pocket and then runs out of bound unless into the endzone? I ask you because you want more tape.

He's definitely gotten hit, more so when he scrambles up the middle or runs the QB draws then when he goes to the outside. I don't think I've ever seen him slide feet first, which means he's going to get hit.

He got totally mashed on that one QB draw TD last year (was it in preseason or regular, I don't remember) where he hurt his ribs and missed several games.

So, I'm not for him running a lot. A select few QB draws or runs to the edge in the red zone, sure. Elway did it. All mobile QBs do it to some degree. However, it should be the exception, not the rule.

Where his mobility should be used, and will be a great weapon, is getting outside the pocket both on designed rollouts and when the pocket collapses, once he's out there, he has the option to run for yardage if there are no defenders and no receivers open, or buy time for the receivers to come open to complete a pass.

LordTrychon
10-20-2011, 01:00 PM
He's definitely gotten hit, more so when he scrambles up the middle or runs the QB draws then when he goes to the outside. I don't think I've ever seen him slide feet first, which means he's going to get hit.

He got totally mashed on that one QB draw TD last year (was it in preseason or regular, I don't remember) where he hurt his ribs and missed several games.

So, I'm not for him running a lot. A select few QB draws or runs to the edge in the red zone, sure. Elway did it. All mobile QBs do it to some degree. However, it should be the exception, not the rule.

Where his mobility should be used, and will be a great weapon, is getting outside the pocket both on designed rollouts and when the pocket collapses, once he's out there, he has the option to run for yardage if there are no defenders and no receivers open, or buy time for the receivers to come open to complete a pass.

That was at the end of the 3rd or 4th preseason game last year, I think. I'm pretty sure that it was the sort of injury he'd have played through if he was the starter though.

ydave77
10-20-2011, 01:00 PM
Agreed. I think short term, like his games this year, possibly even next year, is where I was thinking the 55% range would be 'acceptable' if he's making other plays to move the chains, and if his YPA is still up with the big boys, meaning the completions he does make are higher than those with a higher completion percentage.

You sir, are incorrect.
I expect him to immediately be as good as he ever can be. He should be judged by the first series @ Miami, there is no room for improvement. That one series will show his ceiling.
#Honz

Tned
10-20-2011, 01:17 PM
That was at the end of the 3rd or 4th preseason game last year, I think. I'm pretty sure that it was the sort of injury he'd have played through if he was the starter though.

True. He probably would have donned a flak jacked and played through it.

NightTerror218
10-20-2011, 01:52 PM
He's definitely gotten hit, more so when he scrambles up the middle or runs the QB draws then when he goes to the outside. I don't think I've ever seen him slide feet first, which means he's going to get hit.

He got totally mashed on that one QB draw TD last year (was it in preseason or regular, I don't remember) where he hurt his ribs and missed several games.

So, I'm not for him running a lot. A select few QB draws or runs to the edge in the red zone, sure. Elway did it. All mobile QBs do it to some degree. However, it should be the exception, not the rule.

Where his mobility should be used, and will be a great weapon, is getting outside the pocket both on designed rollouts and when the pocket collapses, once he's out there, he has the option to run for yardage if there are no defenders and no receivers open, or buy time for the receivers to come open to complete a pass.

I noticed after that preseason game last year that he injured ribs that he runs out of bounds a lot more then he did before. He did it a couple times against SD, 1 for a 1st down.

TXBRONC
10-20-2011, 03:46 PM
He's definitely gotten hit, more so when he scrambles up the middle or runs the QB draws then when he goes to the outside. I don't think I've ever seen him slide feet first, which means he's going to get hit.

He got totally mashed on that one QB draw TD last year (was it in preseason or regular, I don't remember) where he hurt his ribs and missed several games.

So, I'm not for him running a lot. A select few QB draws or runs to the edge in the red zone, sure. Elway did it. All mobile QBs do it to some degree. However, it should be the exception, not the rule.

Where his mobility should be used, and will be a great weapon, is getting outside the pocket both on designed rollouts and when the pocket collapses, once he's out there, he has the option to run for yardage if there are no defenders and no receivers open, or buy time for the receivers to come open to complete a pass.


That was at the end of the 3rd or 4th preseason game last year, I think. I'm pretty sure that it was the sort of injury he'd have played through if he was the starter though.

It was the very last play of Denver's 1st preseason game at Cinncinati in '10. He missed the next game against Detriot and then played in the final two preseason games.

vandammage13
10-20-2011, 03:55 PM
Here in a single photo is why NFL teams don't like their QB running around outside the pocket more than is absolutely necessary:

http://images.usatoday.com/sports/_photos/2007/01/18/rgannon.jpg

Hogwash...You have just as much of a chance getting destroyed in the pocket. For every injury you point out for a running QB I can point out 3 related to throwing in the pocket.

Tom Brady:
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/sp/tools/med/2008/09/ipt/1220844151.jpg
http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2008/09/07/BRADYDOWN__1220838456_5461.jpg

Carson Palmer:
http://bplusblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/kimo.jpg
http://images.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/_photos/2006-01-08-palmer3.jpg

Tony Romo:
http://www.ballplayerinvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Tony-Romo-Dallas-Cowboys-Broken-Clavicle-300x205.jpg
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/576267/romodown.jpg

Football is a contact sport, chances are you're gonna get hurt at some point no matter what you do. Even Elway recently said he felt safer outside the pocket than in it.

FlyByU
10-20-2011, 04:11 PM
Football is a contact sport, chances are you're gonna get hurt at some point no matter what you do. Even Elway recently said he felt safer outside the pocket than in it.

Well it still has a few hits nothing like it use to be back when Dennis Smith and Steve Atwater was playing, if those to played in today's wimpy NFL they would be banned from the league so would John Lynch.

Roger Goodell has done well at destroying an American sport and is doing very well at turning it into a Euro suck sport. All this feely, feely crap has got to go along with Roger Goodell...

dogfish
10-20-2011, 04:22 PM
http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/6753/496986858o.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/855/496986858o.jpg/)

ydave77
10-20-2011, 04:50 PM
Here in a single photo is why NFL teams don't like their QB running around outside the pocket more than is absolutely necessary:

http://images.usatoday.com/sports/_photos/2007/01/18/rgannon.jpg
That's Tony Siragusa crushing Rich Gannon's shoulder and ending any chance for the Raiders to win the SB that season (and as it turned out ending perhaps their best chance for a SB).

Raider fans have not forgotten that hit because it took away what might well have been a Raider Championship season.

And here is one reason that running has it benefits....

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KP0NuS44XBE/TdhfltYZ69I/AAAAAAAAD9c/GbNj99trgow/s1600/elway-helicopter.jpg

ydave77
10-20-2011, 05:09 PM
There is NO leeway for "running ability" because no NFL team wants its QB to run on a regular basis. That includes Tebow. They will let him run some this season because he struggles to in the pocket right now, and they want to give him a fair chance.

But seeing Tebow running 10-15 times a game next season? NO WAY! He's earning too much money for them to be comfortable letting him run around in space while opposing LBs come screaming in to jack him up. A running QB is "fair game" for big hits that would draw a flag if he were in the pocket. More hits = more risk of injury. And then that huge salary is sitting in the training room and your entire season is down the toilet.

Keeping the starting QB healthy is a huge part of winning consistently in the NFL. And having the QB run a lot does not help.

Tebow is going to have to learn to become a pure pocket passing QB who runs when he has to. And he will be evaluated on his passing ability.

Elway had to learn to stay in the pocket and make accurate throws and he's said that that was the key to his wining SBs. He wants to see Tebow making that same transition.

I think this is extreme, I dont think anybody anticipates Tebow running 180 times/yr. 15 rushes a game is extreme. I do think running in between the 5-10 rushes per game can be expected.
He is not exactly built like Vick either, is taking a blind side pop much worse than getting tackled by a LB knowing its coming?
Cutler gets hit like 5-10x/game it seems, is that better?

In the 3 games he started last year, he ran 31 times, or an average of 10 times/game. This will only come down as he gets more comfortable with the system, and his receivers. The greener you are, the more likely you are to run, if you have that ability. The key is he plays like a combination of Roethlisberger and Steve Young, where they can make running, and passing plays with their feet. The longer that Tebow stays "alive", and looking downfield, the more likely someone will get open. Defenses break down when a QB gets outside, and receivers get wide open.

If he can do both for us, pass, and run when there is an opening, I will be happy to see it.

I am not concerned about him running so much as I am concerned about can he hit the slant like Rodgers, or find the small windows that Brady does. Its a passing league, and running or not, he has to be able to pass well. I DO believe his running ability though does give him a little leeway, in that making plays is making plays.

So if he will never be a Rodgers, Brady, Brees type passer, if he can be an Eli type passer, with feet to help, that might be enough to make him a franchise QB.

PAFLCO
10-21-2011, 12:11 AM
Excellent :elefant:
Well thought out read.

This should be published.

TXBRONC
10-21-2011, 09:32 AM
http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/6753/496986858o.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/855/496986858o.jpg/)

That guy was flat out scary in his prime.

Tned
10-22-2011, 12:58 PM
Less than a day away, and we will start to see if my assertion will be accurate.

It's funny, that while few talking heads are predicting much from Tebow, when I was on Rotoworld last night, there were only five QBs they would start over Tebow this week, and they then went on to list all of his production numbers and how good they were compared to top QBs, not to mention Orton.

While we all know that fantasy is not the same as winning/losing on the field, we also know that if a guy is producing yards and TD's, those are the two biggest keys to winning (on offense), assuming you limit turnovers.

I'm excited to see what the offense is going to do with Tebow under center and most, if not all, of our receivers back, and of course what the defense is going to do playing closer to full health, including Dumervil being closer to normal.

WARHORSE
10-31-2011, 12:54 PM
If only...........

Tned
10-31-2011, 02:15 PM
If only...........

Yep. I was wrong in this part:


Now, all of this is predicated on Tebow being accurate enough to hit open receivers. Assuming he hasn’t regressed from his three starts last year, he is clearly accurate enough to do just that.

So far, he hasn't been accurate enough to hit most of his open receivers.

TXBRONC
10-31-2011, 02:22 PM
Yep. I was wrong in this part:



So far, he hasn't be accurate to hit most of his open receivers.


Nothing wrong with trying to be positive.

Mobile Post via http://Mobile.BroncosForums.com/forums

BroncoNut
10-31-2011, 02:22 PM
this is pretty impressive Tned. I'm proud of you

rcsodak
10-31-2011, 09:32 PM
Lmao. Gotta sticky this, T! :laugh:

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Tned
10-31-2011, 10:09 PM
Lmao. Gotta sticky this, T! :laugh:

Mobile Post via http://Mobile.BroncosForums.com/forums

How bout I bump it each Monday? ;)

Lancane
10-31-2011, 10:24 PM
Tned...what were you smoking when you decided to start this thread?

:D

Medford Bronco
10-31-2011, 10:26 PM
How bout I bump it each Monday? ;)

You have guts for brining this up. :salute:

I will eat crow if I am wrong on Tebow as well.

Northman
10-31-2011, 10:29 PM
Yea, Tned whiffed on this but then again i think many of us thought he would be a improvement over Orton even as raw as he is.

Tned
10-31-2011, 10:34 PM
Yea, Tned whiffed on this but then again i think many of us thought he would be a improvement over Orton even as raw as he is.

I think he has a couple more starts before he gets benched. If he gets back to playing just as well as he did in the three starts last year, the offense will be better.

However, I'm putting it at about 50/50 at best that he gets more than two more starts, so he's got a long way to go.

Medford Bronco
10-31-2011, 11:29 PM
I think he has a couple more starts before he gets benched. If he gets back to playing just as well as he did in the three starts last year, the offense will be better.

However, I'm putting it at about 50/50 at best that he gets more than two more starts, so he's got a long way to go.

If he goes 4-12 for 13 yards vs Oak in the 1st half he will get benched.

Tned
10-31-2011, 11:33 PM
If he goes 4-12 for 13 yards vs Oak in the 1st half he will get benched.

A good indication of how short his leash is will be if Quinn is active.

Don't be surprised if Fox sees the KC win as an indication that the Broncos are still in the mix for a division title. Even at 2-5, he's thinking the Broncos are only two games out.

Medford Bronco
10-31-2011, 11:40 PM
A good indication of how short his leash is will be if Quinn is active.

Don't be surprised if Fox sees the KC win as an indication that the Broncos are still in the mix for a division title. Even at 2-5, he's thinking the Broncos are only two games out.

and he should if he sucks again. Thats not football. Sorry I dont want to watch pathetic football.

Losing is one thing, being a laughingstock is another.

Tned
10-31-2011, 11:46 PM
and he should if he sucks again. Thats not football. Sorry I dont want to watch pathetic football.

Losing is one thing, being a laughingstock is another.

Since we have the worse record in the NFL over the last 33 or so games, we can't get any lower. McDaniels, through the power vested in him by his bosses, destroyed a once great franchise. It's going to take a while to undo that damage.

So, when we we've had 25 losses in the last 33 games, I have no problem seeing if a young QB, even a longshot, can turn into a solid starter.

We're bottom of the barrel right now. If people are ignoring Denver for being the worst team in the league over the last two years, or laughing at the team, who cares? :confused:

I'm far more concerned with doing everything, and anything, that will help the team get competitive again over the next couple years. Right now, one of the big things, is finding out if Tebow can be the QB or if they need to draft one in '12.

Personally, since I wasn't sold on Tebow, I thought back in April that the Broncos should have used a 2nd on Mallet once he'd fallen out of the first for non-football reasons. That's water under the bridge, but my point was that it was clear Orton wasn't the answer, and both Tebow and Quinn were longshots to be the answer at QB.

Medford Bronco
10-31-2011, 11:47 PM
Since we have the worse record in the NFL over the last 33 or so games, we can't get any lower. McDaniels, through the power vested in him by his bosses, destroyed a once great franchise. It's going to take a while to undo that damage.

So, when we we've had 25 losses in the last 33 games, I have no problem seeing if a young QB, even a longshot, can turn into a solid starter.

We're bottom of the barrel right now. If people are ignoring Denver for being the worst team in the league over the last two years, or laughing at the team, who cares? :confused:

I'm far more concerned with doing everything, and anything, that will help the team get competitive again over the next couple years. Right now, one of the big things, is finding out if Tebow can be the QB or if they need to draft one in '12.

Personally, since I wasn't sold on Tebow, I thought back in April that the Broncos should have used a 2nd on Mallet once he'd fallen out of the first for non-football reasons. That's water under the bridge, but my point was that it was clear Orton wasn't the answer, and both Tebow and Quinn were longshots to be the answer at QB.

Fox is a new coach here. Do you think he will put up with that? My guess is no.

Tned
10-31-2011, 11:57 PM
Fox is a new coach here. Do you think he will put up with that? My guess is no.

Fox had the worst record in the league last year, and is 2-5 at his new team. He wants to win. That's why I've said in other posts that I don't think Tebow gets more than two more starts if he doesn't show significant improvement.

I also mentioned that my guess is that Fox is looking at the struggles of other AFC West teams and the fact the Broncos are only two games out and thinking that if they get back to "learning how to win" that the Broncos can make a run at the division title.

So, I don't think Tebow has much of a leash left.

However, my point is still the same that when the Broncos have been the worse team in the league for the last 33 or so games, that we are well beyond worrying about being a laughingstock. Fact is, without Tebow, we wouldn't even be a footnote in the NFL headlines.

Tned
11-17-2011, 12:56 PM
Is this the week that the Broncos and Tebow move in the direction of making this Tned's Take accurate?

Softskull
11-17-2011, 12:59 PM
Is this the week that the Broncos and Tebow move in the direction of making this Tned's Take accurate?

I doubt this is the week with Revis Island visiting. But we can hope.

underrated29
11-17-2011, 12:59 PM
Is this the week that the Broncos and Tebow move in the direction of making this Tned's Take accurate?

As long as we keep moving in the direction we are currently headed I dont give a rats ass.

Having said that, I would sure love to see some passes. 20 is enough I think. Between 15-20 is a nice number. But as long as our side has more points then theirs when the game is over I will not say much.

wayninja
11-17-2011, 01:02 PM
Yeah, people are putting too much importance on this. I don't care if we pitch to Larsen on every play as long as the W's keep coming.

Tned
11-17-2011, 01:07 PM
As long as we keep moving in the direction we are currently headed I dont give a rats ass.

Having said that, I would sure love to see some passes. 20 is enough I think. Between 15-20 is a nice number. But as long as our side has more points then theirs when the game is over I will not say much.

Yea, I think back to when Big Ben was a rookie thrown into the starting role for the Steelers. Most games his pass attempts were in the teens.

While Tebow isn't a rookie, he obviously has a ways to go in the passing game, so if he was in that 15-20 attempt range with a strong running game, I think the Broncos could do well.

slim
11-17-2011, 01:36 PM
I hope they start throwing.

Winning on the ground is embarrassing.

NightTerror218
11-17-2011, 01:41 PM
Yea, I think back to when Big Ben was a rookie thrown into the starting role for the Steelers. Most games his pass attempts were in the teens.

While Tebow isn't a rookie, he obviously has a ways to go in the passing game, so if he was in that 15-20 attempt range with a strong running game, I think the Broncos could do well.

I would love to see some more of those long balls caught. Thomas had some good catches against Revis last year. We have Thomas, Decker and Royal. They have Revis and Crom......with some slants we could hit right behind the LBs as they crowd the box. But the option is going to eat them alive if the Raiders can beat them down we can at home.

RyanC
11-17-2011, 02:54 PM
I hope they start throwing.

Winning on the ground is embarrassing.

Wha? It's embarrassing for the defense that knows exactly what we are going to do and they can't stop it.

Man you must have spent 98 locked in your closet with a bag over your head...Reality check; in the 98 SB Elway was 11-22 with no TD's and one INT.

Northman
11-17-2011, 02:56 PM
Wha? It's embarrassing for the defense that knows exactly what we are going to do and they can't stop it.

Man you must have spent 98 locked in your closet with a bag over your head...Reality check; in the 98 SB Elway was 11-22 with no TD's and one INT.


Clearly you didnt get his sarcasm.

slim
11-17-2011, 02:56 PM
Wha? It's embarrassing for the defense that knows exactly what we are going to do and they can't stop it.

Man you must have spent 98 locked in your closet with a bag over your head...Reality check; in the 98 SB Elway was 11-22 with no TD's and one INT.

Yeah, I was kind of making fun of someone (it was sarcasm).

I loved watching this team the last two weeks....absolutely loved it.

claymore
11-17-2011, 02:57 PM
Wha? It's embarrassing for the defense that knows exactly what we are going to do and they can't stop it.

Man you must have spent 98 locked in your closet with a bag over your head...Reality check; in the 98 SB Elway was 11-22 with no TD's and one INT.

He didnt win a single game that year with less than 3 pass attempts though.

LTC Pain
11-17-2011, 03:05 PM
Wha? It's embarrassing for the defense that knows exactly what we are going to do and they can't stop it.

Man you must have spent 98 locked in your closet with a bag over your head...Reality check; in the 98 SB Elway was 11-22 with no TD's and one INT.

Report to the emergency room to get the hook, line and sinker removed! :lol::laugh:

Tned
11-17-2011, 03:07 PM
He didnt win a single game that year with less than 3 pass attempts though.

Has anyone ever one a game with less than three pass attempts? At least when talking about the modern era of football?

hotcarl
09-07-2012, 09:43 PM
didnt read a ******* word