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MOtorboat
12-06-2008, 10:08 PM
Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Denver Broncos (7-5)

Where: The AFC West-leading Denver Broncos will host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, at 2:15 p.m. MST, at Invesco Field at Mile High, in Denver.

Last meeting: Kansas City beat Denver 33-19 in the fourth week of the season at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The loss was Denver’s first loss, and Kansas City’s first win.

Series: The Chiefs lead the all-time series 53 to 43. Denver leads 6 to 4 in the last 10. The Chiefs have not won in Mile High since Week 4 of 2000, a 23-22 win, following the Broncos second Super Bowl victory and after John Elway retired.

Last week: Denver surprised the world with a 34-17 win over the AFC East-leading New York Jets, ending a five-game winning streak for the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. Kansas City earned their second win of the season, a 20-13 victory over the Oakland Raiders on the road.

Vegas Line: Denver -9, 47 over/under. (Source: usatoday.com)

When Denver has the ball

Running game

Key Matchup: The Denver front five vs. the Kansas City front seven.

Kansas City has some injuries at linebacker and a plethora of young players all over the field, while Denver has had one of its best pass-defending offensive lines in the last decade, but have struggled in the run game. Denver is coming off of a 129-yard performance by former fullback Peyton Hillis last week, the best rushing performance, yardage-wise, for the Broncos this season.

The much-maligned Kansas City run-defense hasn’t given up a 100-yard rusher since Week 7 in a dismal performance that saw both LenDale White and Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans gain over 100 yards against them.

Kansas City struggled containing the Denver run game at Mile High in 2007, giving up 215 yards to the Broncos (156 to Selvin Young), in a 41-7 beat down, bringing back memories of Clinton Portis’ breakout game in 2003 at Mile High.

Advantage: Denver.

Passing game

Key Matchup: Jay Cutler vs. himself.

Jay Cutler threw two key interceptions against Kansas City in Week 4, both leading to scores for the Chiefs, as the Chiefs manhandled the Broncos at Arrowhead. Since taking over as the starter in Denver in late 2006, he’s thrown multiple interceptions in eight games. The Broncos are 2-6 in those eight games, and 0-3 in 2008. Likewise, when Cutler throws less than two interceptions, the Broncos are 14-11 and 7-2 this season.

Before turning down the Oakland Passing game last week, the Chiefs gave up 273 yards to Trent Edwards, 266 yards to Drew Brees, 316 yards to Philip Rivers, 339 yards to Jeff Garcia and 290 yards to Brett Favre, in their previous five games, while giving up eight touchdowns in the air. However, the Chiefs did have seven interceptions in that same time span.

Advantage: Denver.

When Kansas City has the ball

Running game

Key Matchup: Larry Johnson vs. his offensive line

There’s no doubt that Larry Johnson is talented. The oft-maligned Chiefs star has run for more than 1,750 yards in two of his six NFL seasons. Yet, this year he has struggled both on the field and off of it.

Virtually suspended from Weeks 7-10 (though only officially for Week 10), Johnson has 657 yards on 143 carries in eight games, with four touchdowns. He’s been hit and miss in those eight games, rushing for 100 yards just twice – 121 against Atlanta, 198 against Denver – and being almost non-existent against Oakland in Week 2 and Carolina in Week 5. Last week he had 92 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, and he averaged 11.6 yards per carry on seven carries against Buffalo two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Denver run defense is ranked 28th in the league, giving up 4.9 yards per carry, and giving up 17 touchdowns on the ground, fifth worst in the NFL (The Chiefs are third-worst with 20). Even in a win last week, the Broncos gave up 138 yards and two touchdowns to Thomas Jones.

Advantage: Kansas City.

Passing game

Key Matchup: Denver’s defensive line vs. Kansas City’s offensive line.


Tyler Thigpen has come unto his own in the last five games, despite only winning just one of those games. He came into the season as the third-string quarterback, and will end up starting his seventh game on Sunday at Invesco. However, he is prone to making mistakes and throwing interceptions. He threw four against the Jets, four against New Orleans and three against Buffalo.

Denver has struggled defensively this season, ranking 28th in total defense and 27th in pass defense. The Broncos are also 21st in sacks. The Denver defense has to get sacks and force turnovers to be successful. If they can get pressure on Thigpen, they can force mistakes.

Advantage: Kansas City.

Special Teams

Key Matchup: Eddie Royal vs. the Chiefs kickoff coverage.

Eddie Royal (who has been spectacular in the offense) has shown flashes of brilliance in special teams, something the Broncos haven’t seen since Darien Gordon, but coverage has been inconsistent for the Broncos. A big play or two in the special teams could be a gamechanger.

Royal is 16th in the NFL in Kick Return yardage, while, Dantrell Savage ranks 36th for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have really struggled in kick return coverage, and the Broncos could take advantage of that in the field position battle.

Conner Barth has been 8-8 since coming on as the Chiefs kicker, but he hasn’t had a lot of opportunities. For the Broncos, Matt Prater has the leg, connecting on five of five from more than 50 yards, but he’s also missed six kicks, going 20 of 26 overall.

In the punting game, the Chiefs hold the advantage with Dustin Colquitt (he of the kicking-Colquitts from Tennessee). Colquitt ranks fifth in the NFL in punting with a net average of 44.7 yards per punt, and he’s also sixth with 21 kicks inside the 20. Brett Kern 12th at 38.2 yards per punt, and 23rd with 13 kicks inside the 20.

Advantage: Broncos.

Analysis

The Broncos should win this game. Which, for a team that has been a rollercoaster ride all season, is scary. They are 7-5. They lead the AFC West with a 2-game lead, and a stranglehold on a playoff berth. But the same could have been said heading into Week 3 against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Broncos were 3-0 and had the best offense in football, and the Chiefs were abysmal. Yet, the Chiefs prevailed 33-19, on the strength of Larry Johnson, and a little help on turnovers.

The Broncos offense is light-years ahead of the Chiefs offense, and the Denver defense has shown some signs of life in the past few weeks, despite not having both D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey. But, Tyler Thigpen has played well this season, though being a bit turnover prone, and Larry Johnson is still a threat.

Ultimately, the Broncos rarely lose to the Chiefs at Mile High, and shouldn’t on Sunday.

Prediction: Denver 34, Kansas City 20.

OrangeHoof
12-06-2008, 11:31 PM
Two keys for the Broncos:

Denver needs for their run defense to show up. They won't beat us with Thigpen throwing. Stop LJ and we make them one-dimensional and not a very good dimension at that.

Denver also needs to get "Good Jay" and not "Bad Jay". The Broncos can't have more than one turnover and expect to win.

If the Broncos win time of possession, that is also a good sign.

KCL
12-07-2008, 01:04 AM
Denver will win the game tomorrow.

slim
12-07-2008, 01:06 AM
Denver will win the game tomorrow.

Suck up :hi:

KCL
12-07-2008, 01:13 AM
Suck up :hi:

Nope...just a smart woman!

LordTrychon
12-07-2008, 01:16 AM
47 over/under?

I'll take the under... I kinda expect a boring low scoring game for some reason...

And if I'm wrong, I see us scoring less than 47... and the Chiefs less than 1. :D

MOtorboat
12-07-2008, 08:13 AM
47 over/under?

I'll take the under... I kinda expect a boring low scoring game for some reason...

And if I'm wrong, I see us scoring less than 47... and the Chiefs less than 1. :D

I'm not good with all the betting terminology, but all the previews I see in the papers have the line and the over under, so I was trying to interpret USA Today's lines...I think I got it right...

Bronco9798
12-07-2008, 09:13 AM
47 over/under?

I'll take the under... I kinda expect a boring low scoring game for some reason...

And if I'm wrong, I see us scoring less than 47... and the Chiefs less than 1. :D

I'd take the under as well.

Medford Bronco
12-07-2008, 11:21 AM
Its simple if the Broncos are even or plus in the turnover ratio they
win this game. If they turn it over and are minus 2 or worse, they
most likely lose this game.

Be prepared, smart with the ball, no pics or fumbles and Denver wins
28-17 :salute:

Medford Bronco
12-07-2008, 11:21 AM
I'd take the under as well.

With these defenses I like the over

frauschieze
12-07-2008, 12:15 PM
Denver will win the game tomorrow.

No reverse psychology from you. NONE!

KCL
12-07-2008, 12:30 PM
No reverse psychology from you. NONE!

lol... is that what it's called?

Ziggy
12-07-2008, 12:31 PM
Nice analysis MB. Many of us wonder which Broncos team will show, but I think they come out and take care of business today.

BeefStew25
12-07-2008, 12:43 PM
CHamp is out.

broncogirl7
12-07-2008, 12:45 PM
It will be great to see what Josh Bell can do for us in this game.

frauschieze
12-07-2008, 12:45 PM
CHamp is out.

He must be pissed. The look on his face from the sidelines..... you can tell he only wants to be on the field. Sitting back and watching the action is torture.

topscribe
12-07-2008, 12:47 PM
Nice analysis MB. Many of us wonder which Broncos team will show, but I think they come out and take care of business today.

I hope so. They should very well have learned from the previous games with
KC and Oakland that they have to do more than just show up. I don't know
why we should be so nervous about this game, but we are . . .

-----

BroncoBJ
12-07-2008, 01:32 PM
I didn't know that the Chiefs last win in Denver was in 2000. :eek:
That was the 1st Bronco game I ever went to. :elefant:
I was in 7th grade.

Good times.
Hopefully we go another year with beating them at our place. :salute:

MOtorboat
12-07-2008, 01:41 PM
I didn't know that the Chiefs last win in Denver was in 2000. :eek:
That was the 1st Bronco game I ever went to. :elefant:
I was in 7th grade.

Good times.
Hopefully we go another year with beating them at our place. :salute:

They have never won in Invesco.

(Someone please unjinx this jinx, please. TIA)