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Broncos Mtnman
11-30-2008, 10:44 PM
“There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli / Prime Minister UK / 1880-1884

I know there are many who don’t like stats, but as a guy who follows them a bit more closely than most, I’m always amazed at how they can give a pretty clear picture of what to expect in the world of sports, particularly when it comes to the Denver Broncos.

First, let me say that I agree that they don’t always tell us how things will turn out. For instance, going into the game today against the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS, the statistics would indicate that the Broncos didn’t stand much of a chance against New York’s AFC franchise. The Jets had a five game winning streak. They had just beaten the undefeated Titans. Their defense ranked in the top-10 in nearly every significant category, particularly in points allowed at 21.3 per game, rushing defense at 78 yards per game, and sacks per game with an average of 3+ per game. They also fielded an offense that ranked 5th in points scored at 29.4 points per game and 3rd in time of possession, controlling the ball for 33 minutes and 29 seconds on average.

For the Broncos, a model of inconsistency this season, they would field a defense that ranked near the bottom in nearly every category. They would field an offense that I had to compare to Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde after last week’s embarrassing loss to the hapless Raiders at home. Statistically, the Broncos could put up 500 yards of offense and score 35 points, or struggle due to multiple turnovers and dropped passes.

Thankfully for Broncos fans, none of these stats mattered in today’s contest, but as the title of this report states, some stats DO, and in my opinion, there are only two of them.

Statistically, the Broncos were 5-0 going into today’s game when they committed one turnover or less, but were a dismal 1-5 when they committed more. In addition, the Broncos were 3-0 when the defense held the other team to 20 points or less, but recorded a sub .500 3-5 when they didn’t. In today’s contest, both of these stats held true, and as a result, they remained undefeated when one or both of these vital statistics were achieved.

Yeah, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, but the Broncos have proven that these two statistics will lead to victory every time.

Today’s highs and lows….


HIGHS :2thumbs:

1 – Jay Cutler. He put up a very impressive performance considering the torrential downpour and hurricane-strength winds the game was played in today. He went 27/43 for 357 yards (his 6th game of the season of 300+ yards), 2 touchdowns and an interception. 6 of his completions were for 20 yards or more, with one additional completion going for 19 yards.

By the way, his two touchdowns brought his total to 50 in his first 33 games, a team record that beats Brian Griese and Jake Plummer, who didn’t reach 50 until 34 games.

2 – Peyton Hillis. He’s my player of the game this week. He rushed 129 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown. Peyton is the FIRST running back to rush for 100 yards against the stifling Jets defense this season (there goes another stat). He was the only running back to carry the ball in today’s game and he was more than up to the task. He’s a bull to take down and nearly always gets positive yardage. His play since inheriting the starting job at running back is nothing short of inspirational.

3 – Tony Scheffler. 7 catches for 90 yards led the team for receptions. After missing several games with an injury, he was once again Jay’s favorite target. Honorable mention goes out to Daniel Graham. He would snag an additional 6 passes for 59 yards. With 13 total catches for 149 yards, the tight end position led the way in passing production.

4 – Offensive line. Seems these guys should just get a permanent spot in the “highs” department. Against the 5th leading team in the NFL in sacks (the Jets had a total of 35 going into this game), this group of young players yielded ZERO sacks of Mr. Cutler. They were also instrumental in Peyton Hillis being the first 100 yard rusher against a defense that was averaging only 82 yards rushing per game.

5 – Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely. They were the only two receivers to reach the endzone in today’s game, but that’s not the only reason they get mentioned this week. Eddie’s touchdown play was a very strong sideline reception where he tiptoed his way down the sideline for a 59 yard touchdown reception. Brandon’s touchdown play came on a play-action pass for a 36 yard completion. Eddie “Casino” Royal and Brandon “Slot Machine” Stokely were “money” today.

6 – Defense. While they did surrender two rushing touchdowns to the Jets very impressive running game (one of them a heartbreaking 59 yard touchdown run that allowed the Jets to tie the game early in the contest), the defense played a very solid game. With that big run subtracted, the Broncos (who were “statistically” ranked at 28th in the NFL while surrendering an average of 144 yards per game) only yielded 83 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown.

They kept Brett Favre out of the endzone, picked him once for an interception, had two sacks (the team hadn’t had a sack since the Miami game a month ago and today’s game was the first multi-sack performance since week seven against New England), and a forced fumble by Favre. They also recovered another fumble for the team’s first touchdown of the game (the defense’s first score since week three against the Saints). They also held the Jets to 3/11 in third down conversions (the Jets were an impressive 44% in this vital category going into today’s matchup) and 0/3 on fourth down conversions (the Jets were 8/12 going into today’s game).

Most impressive was the defense’s performance in the Red Zone and Goal-to-go. The Jets were 0 for 2 in both categories.

This is the second game in the last three where the defense has held the opponent to 20 points or less. In both cases, the team they were playing was a playoff caliber team. While they deal with injuries and try to find their identity under Bob Slowick’s new schemes, it looks like they aren’t too far from putting some things together on the defensive side of the ball. No one is going to confuse this group with the Baltimore Ravens, but with many of the defensive starters due back in the next few weeks, we could be looking at a better defense than we witnessed in the first half of the season.

7 – Special Teams. Both Kern and Prater gave a strong performance in today’s game. Again, when you consider the elements that the kicking game had to operate under, both kickers delivered when the Broncos needed them to. Hopefully, this game will give Prater some confidence to go forward as the team prepares for the playoffs.

LOWS :2thumbsdown:

1 – Mental Mistakes. It should be expected that rookies will make a mistake now and then, but the play where the Jets scored their second touchdown after Thomas Jones got up from an apparent tackle and ran to the endzone for a touchdown should never happen. If there’s no whistle, you keep playing. Sure, it was an honest mistake since Jones had gone down, and this officiating crew seemed to have moments where they were observers instead of officials, but if a player appears to go down and no whistle has been blown, tackle the guy again.

2 – Big Plays Surrendered By The Defense. There was only one, but that big run by Jones to tie the game early shouldn’t have happened. Replay showed that Vernon Fox was out of position on the play. He’s a veteran who should know when to stop playing pass and shift to the run. Winborn also missed his gap on the play. Two players out of position resulted in a quick seven points that could have changed the momentum of the game. While there has been improvement, and there has been a lot of turnover for the starters, the defense still needs to play their assignments.

3 – Penalties. Nothing major here, but the team had 6 penalties for 64 yards. One of the most costly was a holding penalty that voided a touchdown run by Peyton Hillis.


As you can clearly see, a lot of stats were meaningless in today’s game, and that was a good thing, but two stats were clearly responsible for today’s victory (turnovers and points allowed).

It’s proof positive, that sometimes, STATS DO MATTER.

BMM

Shazam!
11-30-2008, 11:21 PM
Great post and analysis.

Some of the best stats I pointed too, if numbers are indicitive of anything, Denver's high ranked passing game vs. Jets low-ranked pass defense, almost as bad or worse than the Broncos. That's why I didn't think this would be the Denver Dog Show some did.

Also, as far as the mental errors go, that is something that can be fixed on over time.

I'm a very happy man today. Living in NY, I'm the most hated guy on the black now...

Day1BroncoFan
11-30-2008, 11:23 PM
Another few stats that matter.

Broncos 34
Jets 17

Broncos 7-5

:D

Lonestar
11-30-2008, 11:35 PM
I was really impressed with Hillis AGAIN.. WOW unless he he does something stupid this kids has THE starting job nailed DOWN..

The only error I saw of his was not catching a lousy pass from Jay on the sideline..

BTW GOT my Christmas present early a Sony brava LCD big screen.. so instead of watching the game on a old 27 inch emerson with the top 1/3 of the screen being inverted over the bottom part I got to see the whole game in HD clarity..

A real treat.. Before I was unable to see the top 1/3 of the field and had to read the score line upside down..

I was not impressed with the eh defense more commonly known as the walking wounded..

BTW what happened to Larsen is this a season ender? He seemed with Woodyard to be all over the field until he went down..

TXBRONC
11-30-2008, 11:55 PM
“There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli / Prime Minister UK / 1880-1884

I know there are many who don’t like stats, but as a guy who follows them a bit more closely than most, I’m always amazed at how they can give a pretty clear picture of what to expect in the world of sports, particularly when it comes to the Denver Broncos.

First, let me say that I agree that they don’t always tell us how things will turn out. For instance, going into the game today against the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS, the statistics would indicate that the Broncos didn’t stand much of a chance against New York’s AFC franchise. The Jets had a five game winning streak. They had just beaten the undefeated Titans. Their defense ranked in the top-10 in nearly every significant category, particularly in points allowed at 21.3 per game, rushing defense at 78 yards per game, and sacks per game with an average of 3+ per game. They also fielded an offense that ranked 5th in points scored at 29.4 points per game and 3rd in time of possession, controlling the ball for 33 minutes and 29 seconds on average.

For the Broncos, a model of inconsistency this season, they would field a defense that ranked near the bottom in nearly every category. They would field an offense that I had to compare to Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde after last week’s embarrassing loss to the hapless Raiders at home. Statistically, the Broncos could put up 500 yards of offense and score 35 points, or struggle due to multiple turnovers and dropped passes.

Thankfully for Broncos fans, none of these stats mattered in today’s contest, but as the title of this report states, some stats DO, and in my opinion, there are only two of them.

Statistically, the Broncos were 5-0 going into today’s game when they committed one turnover or less, but were a dismal 1-5 when they committed more. In addition, the Broncos were 3-0 when the defense held the other team to 20 points or less, but recorded a sub .500 3-5 when they didn’t. In today’s contest, both of these stats held true, and as a result, they remained undefeated when one or both of these vital statistics were achieved.

Yeah, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, but the Broncos have proven that these two statistics will lead to victory every time.

Today’s highs and lows….


HIGHS :2thumbs:

1 – Jay Cutler. He put up a very impressive performance considering the torrential downpour and hurricane-strength winds the game was played in today. He went 27/43 for 357 yards (his 6th game of the season of 300+ yards), 2 touchdowns and an interception. 6 of his completions were for 20 yards or more, with one additional completion going for 19 yards.

By the way, his two touchdowns brought his total to 50 in his first 33 games, a team record that beats Brian Griese and Jake Plummer, who didn’t reach 50 until 34 games.

2 – Peyton Hillis. He’s my player of the game this week. He rushed 129 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown. Peyton is the FIRST running back to rush for 100 yards against the stifling Jets defense this season (there goes another stat). He was the only running back to carry the ball in today’s game and he was more than up to the task. He’s a bull to take down and nearly always gets positive yardage. His play since inheriting the starting job at running back is nothing short of inspirational.

3 – Tony Scheffler. 7 catches for 90 yards led the team for receptions. After missing several games with an injury, he was once again Jay’s favorite target. Honorable mention goes out to Daniel Graham. He would snag an additional 6 passes for 59 yards. With 13 total catches for 149 yards, the tight end position led the way in passing production.

4 – Offensive line. Seems these guys should just get a permanent spot in the “highs” department. Against the 5th leading team in the NFL in sacks (the Jets had a total of 35 going into this game), this group of young players yielded ZERO sacks of Mr. Cutler. They were also instrumental in Peyton Hillis being the first 100 yard rusher against a defense that was averaging only 82 yards rushing per game.

5 – Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely. They were the only two receivers to reach the endzone in today’s game, but that’s not the only reason they get mentioned this week. Eddie’s touchdown play was a very strong sideline reception where he tiptoed his way down the sideline for a 59 yard touchdown reception. Brandon’s touchdown play came on a play-action pass for a 36 yard completion. Eddie “Casino” Royal and Brandon “Slot Machine” Stokely were “money” today.

6 – Defense. While they did surrender two rushing touchdowns to the Jets very impressive running game (one of them a heartbreaking 59 yard touchdown run that allowed the Jets to tie the game early in the contest), the defense played a very solid game. With that big run subtracted, the Broncos (who were “statistically” ranked at 28th in the NFL while surrendering an average of 144 yards per game) only yielded 83 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown.

They kept Brett Favre out of the endzone, picked him once for an interception, had two sacks (the team hadn’t had a sack since the Miami game a month ago and today’s game was the first multi-sack performance since week seven against New England), and a forced fumble by Favre. They also recovered another fumble for the team’s first touchdown of the game (the defense’s first score since week three against the Saints). They also held the Jets to 3/11 in third down conversions (the Jets were an impressive 44% in this vital category going into today’s matchup) and 0/3 on fourth down conversions (the Jets were 8/12 going into today’s game).

Most impressive was the defense’s performance in the Red Zone and Goal-to-go. The Jets were 0 for 2 in both categories.

This is the second game in the last three where the defense has held the opponent to 20 points or less. In both cases, the team they were playing was a playoff caliber team. While they deal with injuries and try to find their identity under Bob Slowick’s new schemes, it looks like they aren’t too far from putting some things together on the defensive side of the ball. No one is going to confuse this group with the Baltimore Ravens, but with many of the defensive starters due back in the next few weeks, we could be looking at a better defense than we witnessed in the first half of the season.

7 – Special Teams. Both Kern and Prater gave a strong performance in today’s game. Again, when you consider the elements that the kicking game had to operate under, both kickers delivered when the Broncos needed them to. Hopefully, this game will give Prater some confidence to go forward as the team prepares for the playoffs.

LOWS :2thumbsdown:

1 – Mental Mistakes. It should be expected that rookies will make a mistake now and then, but the play where the Jets scored their second touchdown after Thomas Jones got up from an apparent tackle and ran to the endzone for a touchdown should never happen. If there’s no whistle, you keep playing. Sure, it was an honest mistake since Jones had gone down, and this officiating crew seemed to have moments where they were observers instead of officials, but if a player appears to go down and no whistle has been blown, tackle the guy again.

2 – Big Plays Surrendered By The Defense. There was only one, but that big run by Jones to tie the game early shouldn’t have happened. Replay showed that Vernon Fox was out of position on the play. He’s a veteran who should know when to stop playing pass and shift to the run. Winborn also missed his gap on the play. Two players out of position resulted in a quick seven points that could have changed the momentum of the game. While there has been improvement, and there has been a lot of turnover for the starters, the defense still needs to play their assignments.

3 – Penalties. Nothing major here, but the team had 6 penalties for 64 yards. One of the most costly was a holding penalty that voided a touchdown run by Peyton Hillis.


As you can clearly see, a lot of stats were meaningless in today’s game, and that was a good thing, but two stats were clearly responsible for today’s victory (turnovers and points allowed).

It’s proof positive, that sometimes, STATS DO MATTER.

BMM

Nice analysis Mtnman.

If our defense could play like they have against the likes of Falcons and the Jets this team could actually do something in playoffs.

Broncos Mtnman
12-01-2008, 12:03 AM
Nice analysis Mtnman.

If our defense could play like they have against the likes of Falcons and the Jets this team could actually do something in playoffs.

Hopefully, with Bailey and DJ coming back soon, maybe we will.

:beer:

topscribe
12-01-2008, 12:23 AM
Thread moved at thread-starter's request.

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sneakers
12-01-2008, 01:01 AM
Yeah, you know, that Jay Cutler guy can never win the big games...we need a "winner" at QB, someone who just has the knack for winning....Cutler never had a winning season at Vanderbuilt (because he didn't have the knack of a winner) and had never had winning season in the NFL, what makes you think he is all of a sudden going to start winning games? We need to sign Trent Dillfer out of retirement!

:lol: :laugh:

King87
12-01-2008, 01:12 AM
Fantastic article.

Stats do matter, stats do not fail people, people just fail at reading the stats properly.

topscribe
12-01-2008, 01:22 AM
Fantastic article.

Stats do matter, stats do not fail people, people just fail at reading the stats properly.

You nailed that one. One thing we learned in psychological studies is how
statistics can be skewed into showing just about what the researcher wants
them to show. It's the same thing. Nothing is more misleading than stats
presented with bias.

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King87
12-01-2008, 01:32 AM
You nailed that one. One thing we learned in psychological studies is how
statistics can be skewed into showing just about what the researcher wants
them to show. It's the same thing. Nothing is more misleading than stats
presented with bias.

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Oddly enough we covered that in my psych class. I think what people forget is that you can honestly read stats in several different ways. That is why two passionate intelligent fans can disagree on something and both have valid arguments.

However, networks like ESPN do fans a disservice. When you put up so many clowns who present "arguments" based off of "facts" you not only tell elaborate lies, you misinform fans.

rcsodak
12-01-2008, 11:02 AM
We should all send a 'thank you' to ESPN. Sounds like their saying the Broncos should stay on the plane might have ignited some of the players.

THANKS, ESPN!!!!

Dean
12-01-2008, 10:41 PM
Marshall and Hillis have both commented that they had heard it and were not pleased by it. Way to go ESPN.

TXBRONC
12-02-2008, 09:23 PM
Fantastic article.

Stats do matter, stats do not fail people, people just fail at reading the stats properly.

Agreed if stats are viewed in there proper context you can make them say whatever you want them to say.