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View Full Version : BREAKIN' IT DOWN, WEEK FOUR vs. INDIANAPOLIS



dogfish
09-29-2007, 03:54 AM
JMHO, but i see only one way we win this game-- grab an early lead, dictate tempo and control the clock. . . quite simply, indy is the better team right now, and we have to execute at a high level if we hope to pull the upset-- the mental mistakes, missed tackles and cheap turnovers we had against jacksonville will get us blown out if they happen this week. . .

i'm really hoping we win the coin toss and get a chance to put our offense on the field first-- over the years indy has been very good at putting up TDs on their first possesion, which puts their opponent behind the eight ball early as they can drop into the cover-2 and let their pass-rushers pin back their ears-- it also helps to make the other team one-dimensional and protect their often-shaky run defense. . . it tends to get that little dome roaring, and it's been speculated for years that they also pump in extra "crowd noise" through the stadium speakers when the opposing offense is on the field-- i hope we don't have to burn freakin' timeouts because of problems with the helmet communications system again this week. . . :frusty:

i think we need to play with controlled aggression on both sides of the ball, and it starts with the play calling. . . although indy runs a cover-2 base defense, i'm not so sure they'll start out in it against a traditionally run-heavy team like denver-- they like to let their DLs concentrate on getting upfield to rush the passer and play the run second, and safety bob sanders spends a lot of time in the box supporting the run. . . sanders is an elite player in that regard despite his size-- the way he uses his body like a missile has contributed to his inability to stay healthy-- but his penchant to be very nosy in run support can potentially be taken advantage of by the deep ball. . . if sanders is playing close to the line i'd love to see us take a few shots deep early on-- risky, but i just don't think we're likely to keep up with them if we can't generate a few big plays on offense. . . when the safeties are deep, sanders likes to peek into the backfield, and can sometimes be moved with pump fakes-- the other S, antoine bethea, doesn't have sanders' big rep, but he may the sounder of the two in his coverage reads and angles. . .

people (including myself) said it was risky to let both their starting corners go, but it's already proven to be a good move. . . they had former high round draft picks marlin jackson and kelvin hayden waiting to take over, and they look to be upgrades. . . both are big, physical corners with good instincts for zone coverage and solid tackling skills-- in other words, prototypical cover-2 corners. . . hayden is listed as questionable with a quad injury, but i'm sure he'll play. . . their nickel is another former high rounder, tim jennings-- he's more of a traditional nickel, smaller and quicker, and if hayden happens to miss the game we'll have a mismatch there. . . at least our receivers have the size and toughness to match up well on the outside. . . javon walker is also listed as questionable, though he himself said that he intends to play-- we'll have to keep our fingers crossed, because his veteran savvy and precise route-running would be our best weapon to attack deep. . . walker has contagious energy that can ignite our offense-- every game that he's made big plays in since he's been here, we've won. . . if he's out there we need to get him involved early. . .

don't think that calling for the deep ball early means that i want to see a pass-heavy offense, though-- quite the contrary, i think we'll all agree that we need to pound the ball and play physical, and use travis henry to control the clock and hopefully keep manning on the sidelines-- if we can keep the score close going into the half we should have a good chance to use travis as the hammer late in the game. . . although their DBs are physical in run defense, their smallish front seven can be worn down if they have to stay on the field for extended periods. . . converted DE raheem brock is a finesse penetrator who can be blown off the ball when he can't win battles by using his quickness to get under the OL's pads. . . UDFA ed johnson has played surprisingly well in place of NT booger macfarland, but the master technician nalen may have a few tricks he hasn't seen yet. . . their DEs can occasionally disrupt running plays by shooting gaps with their speed, but otherwise are ineffectual in the running game. . . i doubt their DLs can consistently prevent our OLs from getting to the second level and creating trash. . .

LB rob morris is their best run-stopper, and the rush D really improved last year in the playoffs when they moved him to SAM. . . freddy keiaho replaced cato june at WILL, and gary brackett is their MIKE-- both are undersized but fast, and flow to the ball extremely well. . . their D isn't particularly tough up the middle without the eighth man in the box, and if we can hit a big play early and keep those safeties back we should be able to run successfully up the middle with the tight zone and some basic smashes and dives, maybe a few inside handoffs to the fullback (mike bell is out with a concussion, but cecil's physical running style is well-suited to attack their defense). . .

one thing they've been EXTREMELY vulnerable to over the years is the draw play, because of the way their DLs get upfield-- selvin young could pop a few nice runs if we use it, and i wouldn't hesitate to try it out of the shotgun on 2nd-and-long, even 3rd-and-medium when we're backed up in our own end. . . i've seen plenty of teams convert long 1st downs against them that way. . .

we should also try to slow down the pursuit with a few misdirection plays-- i'm not sure i'd want to put javon in any extra harm's way at this point, but that kid marshall is pretty okay with the ball in his hands. . . :D a few counters would be a good idea as well-- i've pretty much given up asking for the bootleg, we obviously don't plan on using it much any more. . . :noidea: we've used more screens under dinger, and those are another way to take advantage of the D-line's aggression. . .

people have been complaining about our pass protection, but for the most part i personally think it's unfounded-- yes, we've had some pressure, but you're going to have that in the NFL. . . i sometimes think people expect our pass pro to look like what roethlisberger got against us in the AFCCG two years ago, but IMO that's unrealistic. . . cutler hasn't taken an unreasonable number of hits, and has generally had enough time to find his guy-- sure he has to step and slide in the pocket sometimes, but so does every other QB. . . one thing i noticed when i re-watched the JAX game was that we threw a good number of screens, which makes it look like he's under an intense rush and is forced to dump it off, but that's actually how the play is designed-- your OLs are supposed to entice the DLs upfield so the ball can be thrown in the space they've vacated. . . on over fifty percent of the plays where the protection "broke down" quickly, i'm almost positive they were called screens. . . we did have a few break downs in blitz pickup, but it's inevitable-- sometimes the D wins, too. . . for the most part cutler has done a nice job identifying them and finding his hot receiver. . .

that said, indy's pass rush certainly presents a tough challenge. . . their DTs are all quick, and freeney and mathis can scream off the edge. . . lepsis has stoned freeney in the past, but with his groin injury not looking to be entirely healed he may have some problems with freeney's electric first step if he can't kick out properly. . . both of our tackles are probably going to need plenty of help from graham and the RBs, especially if we do decide to look down the field. . . obviously maintaining manageable down-and-distance situations will relieve a good bit of that pressure. . .

in the short passing game, i'm sure we'll attack the cover-2 with the typical drags and crossing routes. . . stokley is familiar with their corners, and that should play to his advantage-- look for a few more big 3rd down conversions from him. . . our TEs have done very little in the passing game other than nate jackson' short TD against the jags, and it would be nice to get some more production from that group. . .

in summary, i'll come back to the phrase "controlled aggression". . . we obviously have to win the time of possesion battle and use a ball-control offense to take some pressure off the D, but we also have to put up some points this week-- we're not going to beat indy with a score in the mid-teens! even if we emphasize the run, cutler will have to make a few plays for us. . . if he sees some opportunities he's going to have to take them, because playing turnover free football won't be enough if we can't get the offense into a higher gear than it's been in so far. . .

dogfish
09-29-2007, 04:08 AM
now here's the part where it gets ugly-- our efense against their offense. . . :ahhhhh:

they're much more balanced than they used to be, but this is still a team that passes to set up the run-- as you would expect with PAYton at QB. . . they used to be a wide-open vertical passing game that was constantly taking shots down the field, but manning has matured and adjusted to defenses always dropping extra defenders into coverage in the hopes of stopping him. . . his pateince has made him even more deadly, as he has learned to take what defenses give him-- he'll still throw a rope down the field when he gets single coverage on the outside, but he's now a lot more willing to take short dumpoffs and checkdowns, or audible to running plays when there are seven in the box. . . his ability to read defenses, both before and after the snap, is probably as good as anyone who's ever played the position. . .

the point has already been brought up in several discussions around here that the best way to prevent manning from dissecting us is by pressuring him, and that's certainly sound in theory. . . however, i strongly question how that will translate to practice in this situation. . . i don't want to step on anyone's toes, but in all honesty i simply don't feel that our pass rush is strong enough to cause manning any serious problems. . . people say "put him on his butt," but it's much easier said than done. . . as previously mentioned, his pre-snap reads are extremely accurate, and when he can anticipate the pressure he can usually beat it. . . he has a fantastic quick release, and unparalleled command of his offense-- when he identifies where the pressure is coming from, he'll call a hot route that allows him to escape it, and his experienced WRs are some of the best in the league at adjusting their routes to help him out. . .

in the past, teams have been able to slow him with shifting fronts that disguise where the pressure is coming from. . . but his relentless film study has helped him to play better against even that strategy the past few years, and bates' defensive scheme doesn't seem to rely much on deception. . . i mentioned in another thread that rookie OLT tony ugoh has a habit of coming out of his stance too high and letting DLs get under his pads-- elvis has been a wrecking ball out there, and i think he'll eat ugoh up if he's lined up to that side. . . but that won't be enough-- someone else will have to step up. . . elvis is a machine, but otherwise i think our pass rush has been pretty non-descript-- some pressure here or there, but not nearly as much consistency as i'd like to see if we're going to rely mainly on our front four to get after the QB. . . i really think jarvis moss has been far better than advertised against the run, doing a credible job holding the point and being active in pursuit-- PFW actaully said that he showed flashes of power against the run in college despite his poor reputation in that area, and it's easy to see what they were talking about. . . as he's clearly far more explosive than engelberger as a pass rusher, i'd love to see moss start or at least get some significant PT. . .

the colts have arguably the best pair of WRs in the league-- they're both exceptional route runners with very reliable hands. . . they're crisp in and out of their breaks, and both of them can run every route on the passing tree-- and the colts will use most of them. . . it's not all corners and nine routes anymore, but you'll still see those. . . they run a lot of outs and comebacks that go to the sideline, and plenty of option routes that take advantage of their field vision-- but the most deadly route in their arsenal is still the post! once they get past the fifty they love to take shots downfield with it, and they've eaten plenty of teams up with quick strikes to the end zone. . . our safeties will need to be on time to help over the top when they throw it. . . right now it sounds like lynch might be out, but foxworth is listed as probable, so hopefully he'll be in lynch's spot if he can't go. . . whoever's back there has to be wary of peeking into the backfield too much-- stay disciplined and don't bite on those pump fakes!

obviously we have a better top pair of corners than we've ever had before when facing the colts, and this will be the ultimate test for the best CB duo in the NFL. . . indy rarely uses motion, as manning says it interferes with his pre-snap reads, and marvin harrison is lined up to the right of the formation with reggie wayne to the left over 90% of the time. . . this means that bailey will probably be isolated on harrison most of the time, with bly against wayne. . . i'm pretty confident that champ can limit marvin, but wayne against bly scares me some. . . dre's a tough, talented cmpetitor, but i'm going to be seriously impressed if he can contain reggie wayne-- he's possibly the best playing today when it comes to using double moves to get deep, and unfortunately that plays directly into dre's biggest weakness, his aggression jumping routes. . . i hate to say it, but i fully expect wayne to get behind him for at least one long TD, and he'll be hard to cover in the red zone as well. . . regardless of what coverages we play, i really hope we roll over the top to wayne's side-- i'm more willing to take my chances with champ on an island. . .

and then we have to talk about TE dallas clarke, who they really use more as a slot receiver. . . clarke is very dangerous down the seam, and i almost hope that we have foxworth playing safety as he probably gives us our best chance of keeping clarke relatively under wraps-- clarke against ferguson or any of our LBs is a mismatch. . . third WR anthony gonzalez is fast and talented, but hasn't had a chance to learn much of their offense yet-- we'll most likely see much more of clarke than gonzalez. . .

and we haven't even talked about joseph addai yet. . . but he must be licking his chops the way our run efense has been performing. . . .:frusty: addai isn't necessarily an elite talent, but he's very good-- the colts FO has done an excellent job over the years of finding good fits for their system, and addai is another great example. . . smart and versatile, he's proven readily able to handle the blocking and receivng duties they require of their backs-- he's more quick than fast, has the vision to find creases, and is pretty shifty in the open field. . . not a guy who's going to put up huge numbers most days, but he's more than capable of taking full advantages of all the opportunities opened up by their scary passing game. . . former CFL player kenton keith looks like an adequate second back. . . if our LBs overrun plays and miss tackles like they did last week, the colts will consistently get easy 1st downs on the ground, and will pick up yardage in chunks on cutback runs. . . . . .

jeff saturday is their answer to tom nalen-- very smart, technically sound and tough-- he's an underrated player who's been a big part of keeping manning healthy. . . the rest of their line is workmanlike, and they're not going to blow anyone off the ball with power. . . they like to run a lot of stretch plays, and if they're going up the middle it's more likely with a draw or delay than a power run. . . they don't use a fullback very often, and prefer two TE single back sets, although clarke will often line up in the slot rather than tight to the line. . . ben utecht is generally their second TE. . .

they run the no-huddle offense better than anyone else, and that's got to be a scary proposition for our big DTs-- if we can't get our substitutions in, guys like sam adams are going to be sucking wind by the middle of the first quarter. . . since they use quickness more than power in the running game anyways, i think we might even want to start someone else (mckinley or thomas), and reserve adams for specific short-yardage situations-- if he's completely gassed he's going to end up being more hindrance than help, and i don't wanna see the dude have a heart attack out there! :ahhhhh: just another reason our O needs to control the tempo. . .

when it comes to attacking their diverse and dangerous offense, it's really a matter of pick your posion-- especially with our weakness stopping the run and containing the underneath passing game. . . if we bring extra guys up to stop the run and crowd the LOS, they'll look to go up top to those deadly WRs, and if we drop guys back they'll be quite content to runs draws and throw screens and swing passes in the flat to addai. . .

i'm going to go back once more to the phrase "controlled aggression". . . it's been conclusively proven that if you blitz manning too heavily he's likely to burn you for big plays, but i'd like to see us try some when we get them in 3rd downs. . . i'm sure we'll be playing two deep with our safeties most of the time, but in a game like this you have to pick your spots and take some chances-- if we get beaten so be it, but at least our CBs give us a chance if it doesn't get there. . . some judicious blitzing with the LBs and slot corner would also be a good idea. . . one thing that our rushers need to be cognizant of is that if it looks like they're not going to get there, they need to stop and just get their hands up-- the colts entire passing game is predicated on rhythm and timing, and anything that breaks that helps tremendously. . . disrupt manning's lanes of vision and force him to pull the ball back down-- he's smart about sliding within the pocket, but isn't very fast on his feet, and that's when he's the most vulnerable to pressure. . . some press coverage on the outside can also help to break that rhythm, although you obviously have to be careful. . .

at least they don't have any particularly deadly returners, although once i say that one of them will probably end up killing us. . . frickin' "special" teams ABSOLUTELY can't have any breakdowns this week, because we've got enough to worry about as it is. . . . :frusty: the bums already owe the other units a few, and any time they'd like to start paying up would be just swell. . .

all in all, i just don't trust our efense to get it done this week-- if we're going to have a good chance to win, the offense is going to have to get it done. . . any time the D can stall one of their drives, the O needs to take full advantage, keep their O off the field for a while, AND finish our drives with points consistently. . . keep it from turning into a track meet while still keeping up with their point production. . . it's a daunting task, and we have to play by far our best game so far this year if we expect to hang with 'em. . .

topscribe
09-29-2007, 08:55 AM
Thank you for your insight, Dogfish. As usual, you help to crystallize my
perception of the matchups.

Our chances in the game depend on several factors, of course, but I don't
believe the biggest factor lies in the DB or pass rush . . . important, but not
the biggest. That, I believe, lies with Henry and our running game. It would
seem Henry is tailor-made for that undersized front seven. If we can get him
just a few creases, he will do some damage, and we may be able to do some
of the stuff to Indy that Jax did to us. And, just as happened last week,
perhaps the better team will not win.

I have a strange feeling that our run defense is going to come together a little
more this week, with Williams' flashes becoming more consistent, Webster
continuing his solid play and staying at home better, and Gold taking advantage
of his speed, which matches up well against the Indy offense.

Manning has a way of getting the ball downfield, even if his running game
isn't working, but we do have probably the best unit of three CBs in the
league. If Indy cannot get Addai going, and Rice and/or Moss can
complement Dumervil's pass rush, the Indy offense may find it more difficult
than usual.

If Lynch cannot play, we will miss his savvy terribly. We also badly need
Javon out there. Marshall would not have too much trouble standing in for
Javon, and Stokley can very capably step in as starter. But there is a
serious dropoff after the top three WRs, and without Scheffler in game
shape yet, the TE position has been too quiet.

Nonetheless, if Henry can have one of his 150+ yard games, I look for an
upset, catching Indy off-guard this week. If not, and/or Lynch and Walker
can't play, I believe they will have a long, quiet ride home.

-----

anton...
09-29-2007, 11:10 AM
i absolutely looooove reading these...

i get all the info i could ever want...

and it makes watching the games soooo much more interesting...

thanks!!

:salute:
________
Wiki vaporizer (http://vaporizerwiki.com)

omac
09-29-2007, 11:27 AM
Nice analysis, dogfish! I'm learning a lot about the Colts just through reading your posts; great insights. :salute:

I'm not convinced that they have a great run defense based on their last 3 games. The 2 they did well against were sub-par rushing teams, with one forced to play their #3 back because of injuries to #1 and #2.

I think our rushing/zone-blocking/screens/quick-slants offense will get us the win, and this is the game where Henry, Graham, and Sapp really prove their worth.

I also think this defense can limit Indy to 21 points.

TXBRONC
09-29-2007, 11:43 AM
Great analysis as usual DF. The game is winnable, but Denver has to control the clock and not make mistakes. It's a tall order but it's not impossible.

BigBroncLove
09-29-2007, 08:35 PM
Really good job again this week dogfish. There isn't much to discuss, because you laid it down pretty damn well, but I'll throw in a few thoughts as well.


they like to let their DLs concentrate on getting upfield to rush the passer and play the run second, and safety bob sanders spends a lot of time in the box supporting the run. . . sanders is an elite player in that regard despite his size-- the way he uses his body like a missile has contributed to his inability to stay healthy-- but his penchant to be very nosy in run support can potentially be taken advantage of by the deep ball. . . if sanders is playing close to the line i'd love to see us take a few shots deep early on-- risky, but i just don't think we're likely to keep up with them if we can't generate a few big plays on offense. . .

I agree completely, but I will say that even when backed off the line, Sanders with his impressive speed and vision can still support the run very well. I expect Indy to reserve him in a role for run support, but not inside the box very often. He is a very smart player and can diagnose plays well. He will get caught off the ball on occassion, but his speed allows him to recover quickly, and he isn't often wrong in how he sees the play develop. I think we can use that aggressive nature against him, but I think even otuside the box, he will be a potent part of their run defense and that he infact seems to read how running plays develop better in the secondary then when he is stacked in the box.


people (including myself) said it was risky to let both their starting corners go, but it's already proven to be a good move. . . they had former high round draft picks marlin jackson and kelvin hayden waiting to take over, and they look to be upgrades. . . both are big, physical corners with good instincts for zone coverage and solid tackling skills-- in other words, prototypical cover-2 corners. . .

I am not as convinced in their secondary as you are. They have played some bottom barrel teams in terms of the talent, depth, and skill at the WR position. Against the Saints, ti wasn't so much the ability of the CB's to nail down coverage, as it was the DLine completely destroying what looks to be a very ineffective Oline for the Saints. They produced a lot of pressure which in turn made th corners jobs easier (even then they have only one big name in NO anymroe which is Colston. I'm not sold on Henderson yet like you were earlier in the year). Then they played Tenessee whos top name is Eric Moulds, not an especially fearsome group of WR's, and a Texans team that didn't have Andre Johnson on the field. I think they have looked pretty good so far, but the level of WR's they have faced so far has been below average. I think we can press that this time. If Walker is infact out, then we will need help, but I do wonder what Scheffler would look like in the slot if he's ready :D


and we haven't even talked about joseph addai yet. . . but he must be licking his chops the way our run efense has been performing. . . . addai isn't necessarily an elite talent, but he's very good-- the colts FO has done an excellent job over the years of finding good fits for their system, and addai is another great example. . . smart and versatile, he's proven readily able to handle the blocking and receivng duties they require of their backs-- he's more quick than fast, has the vision to find creases, and is pretty shifty in the open field. . .

I msotly agree with you on this, but unfortunately I have been forced to re-evaluate Addai this seaosn. He has been looking pretty damn strong to me, especially the way he breaks tackles, something that is a worry for this Denver team. He plays with a lot of enthusiasm and can bounce off tackles very well. Beyond that, Terrel DAvis had some very interesting things to say about him. When asked on Total access who was his favorite RB in the league right now, TD said that Addai was. Simple because he was the one cut down hill runner that TD used to be, and under such praise I reviewed his play on NFLN replay (since the Broncos game didn;t replay this week :mad: ) and he could be a very protoypical Bobby Turner RB. I am very worried baout him this week.

Everything else is top shelfdogfish, top shelf.... :2thumbs: Keep up the good breakdowns, and damnit if I wouldn;t love to see them posted earleir in the week. The longer time to talk about the great football knowledge posted in this thread every week.