PDA

View Full Version : If the Season Ended today (After Week 7)



RunYouOver
10-23-2008, 05:03 PM
Another tough loss for us last week, but the good news is, if the season ended today, or even after next week, we'd still be in the playoffs :cheers:

Anyway, if the season ended today, here's how the playoffs would look:

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (6-0)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1)

3. Buffalo Bills (5-1)

4. Denver Broncos (4-3)

5. New England Patriots (4-2)

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)

Next in, in alphabetical order (All teams 3-3)

Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets

--The Titans have the best record and are the #1 seed in the conference

--The Steelers and Bills are both 5-1. Since they have not played head to head, the tiebreaker goes to Conf. winning %. Since that is tied, it goes to common games, but a minimum of four. Since they have not reached that minimum, it goes to strength of victory, and Pittsburgh's opponents winning % is higher than the Bills. (Though it's still a pretty bad % at 13-17).

--The Broncos are the last division leader, so they are the fourth seed

--The Patriots have the best record among non division leaders and are the fifth seed

--The Jaguars, Jets, Ravens and Colts are all 3 and 3. The Jaguars and Colts are in the same division, and since the Jaguars beat the Colts head to head, the Colts are eliminated. The Jaguars and Ravens both have a 3-3 conference record, while the Jets conference record is 2-3, so the Jets are eliminated. The Jaguars have a better strength of victory then the Ravens, so they are the #6 seed.

Wild-Card Round matchups if the season ended today:

Jacksonville @ Buffalo My prediction: Buffalo 21 Jacksonville 17

New England @ Denver My prediction: At home, and healthy, Denver makes a much better game out of it, but still no defense.... New England 42 Denver 38

Tennessee and Pittsburgh have bye weeks

Divisional Round matchups based on my predictions in WC round

New England @ Tennessee My prediction: Tennessee 17 New England 3

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh My prediction: Pittsburgh 31 Buffalo 21


AFC Championship based on my predictions

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee My prediction: Pittsburgh 20 Tennessee 10


NFC

1. New York Giants (5-1)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2)

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

4. Atlanta Falcons (4-2)

5. Washington Redskins (5-2)

6. Carolina Panthers (5-2)

Next in, in alphabetical order (all teams 4-3):

Chicago Bears
Dallas Cowboys
Green bay Packers

--The Giants have the NFC's best record and are the #1 seed

--The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 5-2 in the NFCS, but the Buccs beat the Panthers head to head, so they are the #2 seed

--The Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons are the last two division leaders, both 4-2. Arizona has a better conference record than Atlanta, so they are the #3 seed

--The Redskins and Panthers are both 5-2 non division leading teams, and the Redskins have a better conference record, so they are the #5 seed

Wild Card round matchups if the season ended today

Carolina @ Arizona My prediction: Carolina 28 Arizona 21

Washington @ Atlanta My prediction: Washington 35 Atlanta 17

New York and Tampa Bay have byes.

Division Round matchups based on my WC predictions

Carolina @ NY Giants My prediction: NY Giants 24 Carolina 17

Washington @ Tampa Bay My prediction: Tampa Bay 20 Washington 17

NFC Championship matchup based on my predictions:

Tampa Bay @ NY Giants My prediction: NY Giants 23 Tampa 17


SUPER BOWL based on my predictions

Still sticking with Steelers-Giants, seem to be the most complete teams in each conference at this point. These teams also play this week, should be a great matchup.

Pittsburgh vs. NY Giants My prediction: Pittsburgh 27 NY Giants 17

Thanks for reading.

As usual, if there's any questions or comments feel free to post. :cheers:

If the season had ended after Week 5 (http://broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23506)

If the season had ended after Week 6 (http://broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24169)

SmilinAssasSin27
10-23-2008, 06:21 PM
boring night in Jersey, huh?

G_Money
10-23-2008, 07:00 PM
We'd be a top seed in the playoffs every year if the season ended after 7 weeks. Shanny's troops race out of the game like gangbusters most of the time. It's the second-half faceplants that get us.

Which doesn't bode well if this is our "fast start."

~G

Fan in Exile
10-23-2008, 07:07 PM
We'd be a top seed in the playoffs every year if the season ended after 7 weeks. Shanny's troops race out of the game like gangbusters most of the time. It's the second-half faceplants that get us.

Which doesn't bode well if this is our "fast start."

~G

This is just not true. I looked through the records last year and for Shanahan's tenure the win-loss ration was the same for the last 8 games as it was for the first 8. This is a myth that I hope dies at some point.

Drill-N-Fill
10-23-2008, 07:12 PM
If the season ended today...

which draft pick would we be?



I'm just so frustrated with our defense. :mad::mad::mad:Nothing gets me more than a team just running down your throat and not being able to do anything about it. Until this team gets bigger up front and at LB's...we won't be contending for anything.

MOtorboat
10-23-2008, 07:14 PM
This is just not true. I looked through the records last year and for Shanahan's tenure the win-loss ration was the same for the last 8 games as it was for the first 8. This is a myth that I hope dies at some point.

Wow...who woulda thunk it...

Since Elway retired...41-31 in the first half, 41-31 in the second half...

G_Money
10-23-2008, 07:40 PM
So apparently my use of the word "always" is complicating things. Fine. Let's go with "recently", and look at just when the wheels seem to come off the record:

Year First-half record Second-half record
2007: 3-5, 4-4 (rough start, didn't get better)
2006: 6-2, 3-5 (started 5-1, lost 6 of last 10)
2005: 6-2, 7-1 (great all the way baby, til the CG)
2004: 5-3, 5-3 (started 5-1, lost 5 of last 10)
2003: 5-3, 5-3 (started 5-1, lost 5 of last 10)
2002: 6-2, 3-5 (started 6-2, lost 5 of last 8)

That's what people mean when they say Shanny's a fast starter. It can't be scheduling every year to start like that for the first 6 games. Those aren't all the weak teams or something. Not EVERY year.

For whatever reason Shanahan's teams seem better ready to take it to the other guys coming out of training camp. Maybe it's our new DC every year that confuses them for a few games or something. Then, once there's been enough tape on our particular wrinkles that year, after 6ish games, we become a .500 team.

The stats may show Shanahan as even between halves of the season, but that's because he's always started his losing streak a couple games before the half-way point. It's just weird.

There have been years we had good last-10-games that mirrored our good first-6. There have been years that our good (or GREAT) first-6 carried us through a mediocre last-10. But the ONLY year we ever had a great 2nd-half that carried us was in 2000. Otherwise, our finish is pretty much determined by our start.

Which, as I said, doesn't necessarily bode well for this year. If we were 5-2 or 6-1 maybe, but at 4-3 Shanny's gonna need to get the 2nd half right this year. Or hope 9-7 cuts it in a down AFC West.

I'm not complaining about us being fast starters. I'd much rather start a year 5-1 all the time than 2-4 and have to win 8 of the last 10 to make the playoffs.

But we ARE fast starters.

~G

Benetto
10-23-2008, 07:44 PM
I do this every week because it interests me, and I figure others are interested as well.

You can use your free time to do things for yourself, I'm going to use them to help out others.
I think he was just trying to pull your chain brotha..No harm or insult intended...I know the guy..

RunYouOver
10-23-2008, 08:57 PM
I think he was just trying to pull your chain brotha..No harm or insult intended...I know the guy..

I figured, I was just a little offended nevertheless.:redface:

SmilinAssasSin27
10-24-2008, 06:30 AM
no offense intended...I just like tossing a grenade every now and again.

Fan in Exile
10-24-2008, 09:50 AM
So apparently my use of the word "always" is complicating things. Fine. Let's go with "recently", and look at just when the wheels seem to come off the record:

Year First-half record Second-half record
2007: 3-5, 4-4 (rough start, didn't get better)
2006: 6-2, 3-5 (started 5-1, lost 6 of last 10)
2005: 6-2, 7-1 (great all the way baby, til the CG)
2004: 5-3, 5-3 (started 5-1, lost 5 of last 10)
2003: 5-3, 5-3 (started 5-1, lost 5 of last 10)
2002: 6-2, 3-5 (started 6-2, lost 5 of last 8)

That's what people mean when they say Shanny's a fast starter. It can't be scheduling every year to start like that for the first 6 games. Those aren't all the weak teams or something. Not EVERY year.

For whatever reason Shanahan's teams seem better ready to take it to the other guys coming out of training camp. Maybe it's our new DC every year that confuses them for a few games or something. Then, once there's been enough tape on our particular wrinkles that year, after 6ish games, we become a .500 team.

The stats may show Shanahan as even between halves of the season, but that's because he's always started his losing streak a couple games before the half-way point. It's just weird.

There have been years we had good last-10-games that mirrored our good first-6. There have been years that our good (or GREAT) first-6 carried us through a mediocre last-10. But the ONLY year we ever had a great 2nd-half that carried us was in 2000. Otherwise, our finish is pretty much determined by our start.

Which, as I said, doesn't necessarily bode well for this year. If we were 5-2 or 6-1 maybe, but at 4-3 Shanny's gonna need to get the 2nd half right this year. Or hope 9-7 cuts it in a down AFC West.

I'm not complaining about us being fast starters. I'd much rather start a year 5-1 all the time than 2-4 and have to win 8 of the last 10 to make the playoffs.

But we ARE fast starters.

~G

It's actually your use of the phrase second half face plant that annoyed me. Look at the numbers you just put up there is no pattern of a second half face plant. In 02 and 06 we got worse in the second half in 07 and 05 we got better.

It's only when you start cherry picking stats like dividing the season up 6 and 10 that people can show a late season slide although I will never know how week 7 is late season or second half.

It's not just you either so don't take it too personally, this is a common perception that's out there and it's just not true.

I wonder if people would feel better knowing that the pattern really is for us to start fast as you said struggle in the middle and finish strong?

At least as much as there is a pattern.

Fan in Exile
10-24-2008, 09:52 AM
Sorry for the double post I just wanted to add my thanks to Run You Over I really enjoy these posts they're fun to think about. Even if you do have us losing to NE again, all evidence aside I think we would totally beat them.

RunYouOver
10-24-2008, 08:17 PM
Sorry for the double post I just wanted to add my thanks to Run You Over I really enjoy these posts they're fun to think about. Even if you do have us losing to NE again, all evidence aside I think we would totally beat them.

I feel that way, but there's no way you can go out and say RIGHT after we lost to them 41-7 that we would beat them. Although I do think at home and healthy would be a completely different game, I can't just say we'd beat them after that.

Fan in Exile
10-25-2008, 07:54 AM
I feel that way, but there's no way you can go out and say RIGHT after we lost to them 41-7 that we would beat them. Although I do think at home and healthy would be a completely different game, I can't just say we'd beat them after that.

I would be totally willing to say it, but maybe that's because I'm a total homer. :D