Denver Native (Carol)
05-01-2011, 09:02 PM
The Cold, Hard Football Facts view draft grades a bit differently than most. You know how most analysts do it: They pretend they watched every college football game of the past three seasons, toss out clichés about various schemes, or which players "set the edge" and have "good motors" and then try guess which will succeed or fail at the next level.
Good luck with that.
The truth is that nobody knows who's going to succeed or fail -- not us, not the draft "experts" on TV and certainly not the GMs making the decisions on draft day.
So here's what we do: We take a very detailed look at each team's statistical deficiencies before the draft. And then we determine which teams did the best job of addressing those needs. Some teams attack these deficiencies quite aggressively. Those teams usually improve the next year. Other teams stick their heads in the statistical sands, apparently trying to wish away the problems that plagued them last season (yes, we're talking about you, Jacksonville). These teams typically suffer the same fate the following year. It's all quite predictable, actually.
We can tell fairly accurately which teams did a good job of addressing their statistical needs in a given draft. As for which players are going to fail or succeed? Well, that's anyone's guess.
Denver
What I liked: The Broncos gave up more points than any team in the NFL last year and capitalized on that in way the Cowboys should have: Aggressively grabbing defenders. It started with No. 2 pick, Von Miller, a pass-rush specialist OLB. It was a perfect needs-based selection: Denver was No. 29 last year on our Defensive Hog Index and dead-last league wide at pressuring the quarterback, forcing a Negative Pass Play on just 6.3 percent of dropbacks -- half the rate of the best pass-rush team in football last year, the Super Bowl champ packers (12.2%). Second-round pick Rahim Moore was the top-rated safety on most boards, and the Broncos landed him with the No. 45 pick. He could start right away.
What I didn't like: Liked it all.
John Elway's first draft has the potential to be a great one that addressed all the team's most glaring needs. Grade: A
full article - on all other teams - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/05/01/draft.grades/index.html?eref=twitter_feed
Good luck with that.
The truth is that nobody knows who's going to succeed or fail -- not us, not the draft "experts" on TV and certainly not the GMs making the decisions on draft day.
So here's what we do: We take a very detailed look at each team's statistical deficiencies before the draft. And then we determine which teams did the best job of addressing those needs. Some teams attack these deficiencies quite aggressively. Those teams usually improve the next year. Other teams stick their heads in the statistical sands, apparently trying to wish away the problems that plagued them last season (yes, we're talking about you, Jacksonville). These teams typically suffer the same fate the following year. It's all quite predictable, actually.
We can tell fairly accurately which teams did a good job of addressing their statistical needs in a given draft. As for which players are going to fail or succeed? Well, that's anyone's guess.
Denver
What I liked: The Broncos gave up more points than any team in the NFL last year and capitalized on that in way the Cowboys should have: Aggressively grabbing defenders. It started with No. 2 pick, Von Miller, a pass-rush specialist OLB. It was a perfect needs-based selection: Denver was No. 29 last year on our Defensive Hog Index and dead-last league wide at pressuring the quarterback, forcing a Negative Pass Play on just 6.3 percent of dropbacks -- half the rate of the best pass-rush team in football last year, the Super Bowl champ packers (12.2%). Second-round pick Rahim Moore was the top-rated safety on most boards, and the Broncos landed him with the No. 45 pick. He could start right away.
What I didn't like: Liked it all.
John Elway's first draft has the potential to be a great one that addressed all the team's most glaring needs. Grade: A
full article - on all other teams - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/05/01/draft.grades/index.html?eref=twitter_feed