PDA

View Full Version : Ziggy's 2011 Draft Analysis



Ziggy
04-30-2011, 10:51 PM
So I've taken some time to evaluate the Broncos draft process. Coming out of the best draft for defensive lineman in the modern era without a defensive lineman until the 7th round really bothers me. The age old argument is whether to draft for need or take the best player available. The Broncos went with the best player available method. With that said, I decided to evaluate each pick by thier talent, and not let the position that they play (or don't play), affect my analysis. Here we go:



Round 1- LB Von Miller- This guy is the most dynamic player in the draft, bar none. He can play any LB position and is an elite pass rusher. He has leadership skills, great intangibles, and comes off of the corner like Derrick Thomas. The Broncos add the draft's best rusher, and he comes with high character, a great motor, and leadership skills.

Round 2a- S Rahim Moore- The top ranked safety on most people's draft board. He's a pure ball hawk and center fielder. He has a small frame, and doesn't have elite speed, but finds a way to get to the ball. He should step in and start right away, giving the Broncos thier second starter in this draft. I'm not completely sold on him, but he has a chance to start immediately.

Round 2b- OT Orlando Franklin- The most physical tackle in the draft. He's a road grader. Having announced that he'll play RT, the new regime has found the replacement for Ryan Harris. He's not as good in pass protection as Harris, but is a much better run blocker, and hasn't had 2 back surgeries. He has been praised for his work ethic and his nastiness on the field. He starts week 1 also.

Round 3- MLB Nate Irving- This guy is the most instinctive LB in the draft, as evidenced by his TFL numbers in college. His near fatal car accident is well documented, as well as the injuries from it. He says it pushed him to love and appreciate life and football even more. His play on the field proves it out. The absence of Al Wilson has left an emotional and playmaking hole in the middle of our D. Nate Irving brings it back. He's a day 1 starter, and future pro bowler.

Round 4a- S Quinton Carter- He can play both safety positions, but Fox hinted at the fact that they see him as more of a SS. He's a big hitter, a leader, a playmaker, and a top safety in this draft. I think that the Broncos walked away with the 2 best safeties in the draft.

Round 4b- TE Julius Thomas- A converted basketball player. He played football for only 1 season in college. He's a poor blocker and a complete project. This one was a big reach.

Round 6- LB Mike Mohamed- Pure special teams player and possible LB depth. He can play any LB position, has decent speed but will probably never start. If he sticks with the team, it will be on special teams. Average 6th round pick.

Round 7a- TE Virgil Green- This was the first big injury gamble. He has had microfracture knee surgery, but his combine numbers show that he's recovered well. He's an athletic specimen, breaking some of Vernon Davis's combine records. He's a playmaking, pass catching TE, and was great value in round 7. This pick could pay off big. He has star potential. If it doesn't, who cares? It was a 7th rounder. I think the new regime probably figures that one of these two tight end picks will pay off. Great pick.

Round 7b- DE Jeremy Beal- He's a player that will help on special teams and has an outside chance to contribute as a backup DE. He's not much more than a pass rusher on defense. Decent pick for the 7th round.




There you have it. What is the makeup of the 2011 Broncos draft class? Leadership, playmaking ability, toughness, and character. Most were team leaders and team captains. 2 were first team All-Americans. The Broncos may gotten their 4 starters this season, and possibly 2 more in a year or two. One of the starters has hall of fame talent, and at least 2 more have pro bowl written all over them. Successful draft? I'd say so. Now go find some defensive tackles and a running back through free ageny and trades when the league allows.

topscribe
04-30-2011, 11:00 PM
Excellent job, Zig.

Just one point: I really don't know why people think Moore is not fast. His
Combine stat in the 40 (4.58) was a complete fluke. I don't know what happened
to him on that day -- whether he was suffering from a cold or had a strained
something or other -- but he has been timed more than once in the 4.4's. For
a safety, that qualifies as elite speed . . .

-----

UnderArmour
04-30-2011, 11:23 PM
It's really interesting that we took 2 players that play Safety and Tight end. Both positions are extremely under appreciated in the NFL, Safety especially. Safety is the most important position for me on the defense due to their involvement in every play. If a Safety does not do their job, there are gains of 20 or 30 yards by the opposing team. In the past, we've passed on players like Ed Reed or Michael Griffin for high upside players but the brain trust of Xanders and Fox actually places value on this position in their willingness to take them where they have them graded instead of reaching for other positions of need.

In Carolina, TEs like King and Rosario were rarely standouts but certainly had their weeks where they shined. Fox's offenses in Carolina in general were ridiculously bland in either running straight up the middle or throwing to Steve Smith/dumping off to receiver #2. Can't really blame his play calling because Jake Delhomme was awful as a starting QB, far worse than Jake Plummer, so it was hard to build an offense. I would say that any of our quarterbacks currently on the roster are capable of spreading the wealth(unlike Delhomme), making the TE draft picks worth it. Even Brady Quinn showed he likes throwing to a TE(He sucked once Winslow got traded away) and Kyle Orton made his living in Chicago throwing to Forte, Olsen, and Clark(his wide receivers sucked).

I liked the Beal pick. Reminds me of when we picked up Doom and everyone said he was undersized. The production is there with the guy issue is just measurables. If a guy can get over 10 sacks in the Big 12, he must have something going for him. It was definitely worth taking the flier.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
05-01-2011, 12:31 AM
Excellent job, Zig.

Just one point: I really don't know why people think Moore is not fast. His
Combine stat in the 40 (4.58) was a complete fluke. I don't know what happened
to him on that day -- whether he was suffering from a cold or had a strained
something or other -- but he has been timed more than once in the 4.4's. For
a safety, that qualifies as elite speed . . .

-----

I'm stating the obvious here, but you're talking about Moore, right?

hotcarl
05-01-2011, 01:03 AM
Wow! Really insightful and not copy/pasted from every draft site ever! Thanks for this!

robert ethan
05-01-2011, 01:13 AM
Beal had pretty much the same stats as Miller over his career, in the same conference. Plus Jeremy's "intangibles" are at least as strong. I don't see a difference to tell you the truth. Beal is heavier and stronger, Miller lighter and faster. But they both accomplish the same thing at the end of the day.

topscribe
05-01-2011, 01:18 AM
I'm stating the obvious here, but you're talking about Moore, right?

:confused:

-----

Montana Battlin Bear
05-01-2011, 01:32 AM
I have a feeling that Irving will be my favorite pick of this draft, after watching some film on him I just love this kid already!

Montana Battlin Bear
05-01-2011, 01:33 AM
and also the Thomas pick was not a reach, teams were noticing this kid all around the country he has a ton of potential and many have claimed he could be the steal of the draft

topscribe
05-01-2011, 01:35 AM
I have a feeling that Irving will be my favorite pick of this draft, after watching some film on him I just love this kid already!

You're not kidding. I was watching game film on him -- not highlight film, but
game film -- and he was so good it looked like highlights. His draft status slid
because of his auto accident, but it surely looks as if he's back!

-----

ForgettingBrandonMarshall
05-01-2011, 02:49 AM
and also the Thomas pick was not a reach, teams were noticing this kid all around the country he has a ton of potential and many have claimed he could be the steal of the draft

This isn't meant to be critical or sarcastic, but what were your sources on that? Can you post a relevant link?

Softskull
05-01-2011, 03:37 AM
This isn't meant to be critical or sarcastic, but what were your sources on that? Can you post a relevant link?

Although I agree that Thomas had become the flavor of the day with the draftniks, I think that most had him being picked up in the sixth or seventh round. He was a bit of a reach, but most agree that he has huge upside.

SmilinAssasSin27
05-01-2011, 06:48 AM
Nice job Zig.

For what it's worth, my favorite draft site has Moore as the #2 Safety in this draft...and Carter as #3. Not too shaby.

It also lists Beal as a mid-rounder and 14th best DE (list includes at least 5 3-4 OLBs).

We drafted Franklin exactly where he should have gone as well.

HORSEPOWER 56
05-01-2011, 07:15 AM
Okay, I'll give it a go too. I, like Zig (and everyone knows this by now with how much whining I've done) am not happy about not addressing the DT position or the D-line at all until the 7th round. We got us some ballers, though and we should improve. This is my breakdown:

Round 1- LB Von Miller- A fantastic pass rusher and athlete who should bring instant upgrade to a slow LB corps. Wasn't asked to cover or chase and tackle much in college, playing more a traditional pass rush/contain the run DE/3-4 OLB position but can easily develop those other skills. Pretty much becomes the most talented LB on the team just by suiting up.

Round 2a- S Rahim Moore- Possibly the best Safety in the draft class (I think we got the other one, too). A rangy guy who is best at playing off the LOS and keeping everything in front of him. Has the potential to start right away. Not the best tackler, but is a high character, high effort guy.

Round 2b- OT Orlando Franklin- A huge guy who adds size and attitude. Can play RT or Guard and played both at Miami. At best, we have a new starting RT, at worst we have some O-line depth.

Round 3- MLB Nate Irving- Prototype MLB. A run and hit guy with a high motor. Good leader on the field. Should compete for a starting job right away.

Round 4a- S Quinton Carter- A day one starter. Plays Safety "old school" and may have to adjust his playing style for the NFL to keep the fines and penalties down. A fearless and crushing hitter. What he lacks in man coverage skills, he makes up for with good positioning and being in the right place to make plays.

Round 4b- TE Julius Thomas- A mystery. Small school guy who played basketball. Every team looks for their very own Antonio Gates and he is our attempt. I think we reached way to hard and too high for him giving up a 5th (when he would've still been there in the 5th). Can't comment on his play because I've never seen him play except for highlights of the East/West game.

Round 6- LB Mike Mohamed- Completely confused by this pick. There were better LBs and better players overall at positions of need. Mohamed is a try-hard, high character guy, but his physical skills and talent aren't really professional level. May turn out okay on STs, but right now, I can't see a LB on this roster who will lose their job to him this year (even the backups). PS player at best.

Round 7a- TE Virgil Green- Value Pick. In the 7th round, it's feast or famine. Either the guy will turn out solid or he'll be gone. Hard to go wrong with 7th round picks. Green has freak measurables and was a solid receiver in college. One of those "always makes a play" type of guy. Needs to learn to block better so he can get on the field other than just on 3rd down in the NFL.

Round 7b- DE Jeremy Beal- Another value pick. A guy who really doesn't "fit" our new scheme but it's hard to argue with his production in college. Another great edge rusher and solid tackler. OU stood him up and moved him around a lot so he's pretty diverse, but he projects best for a 3-4 OLB. Poor man's Von Miller. I think he's a great pick for the 7th round.

Northman
05-01-2011, 08:01 AM
Excellent job, Zig.

Just one point: I really don't know why people think Moore is not fast. His
Combine stat in the 40 (4.58) was a complete fluke. I don't know what happened
to him on that day -- whether he was suffering from a cold or had a strained
something or other -- but he has been timed more than once in the 4.4's. For
a safety, that qualifies as elite speed . . .

-----

To be honest, it wont really matter unless he is having to chase down receivers all day. Having played the position myself its more about anticipating where the balls going to be and watching the QB's eyes. I was never that fast in HS but i knew how to break up passes and intercept balls pretty easily because i watched the QB and made the correct decisions. There is NEVER a perfect safety in football. They ALL get beat somewhere. As good as Atwater was he got torched a few times himself but there's no question he was a great player in other areas. Although i think overall Carter will be the better of the two Mayock made it a point to say during the draft that if Carter learns to trust his instincts and go with his anticipations he could be one of the bigger steals in the draft. Bottom line, safeties really dont need to be fast, just smart. If you got one that can anticipate and study the QB they have the whole field under surveilance.

TXBRONC
05-01-2011, 08:09 AM
As much as it frustrates me that we didn't draft a defensive tackle I want trust that Fox like Nolan is going knows how to build a defense. I hope that at sometime Denver will actually draft a franchise defensive tackle.

rationalfan
05-01-2011, 11:20 AM
Coming out of the best draft for defensive lineman in the modern era.

hello hyperbole.

topscribe
05-01-2011, 11:33 AM
To be honest, it wont really matter unless he is having to chase down receivers all day. Having played the position myself its more about anticipating where the balls going to be and watching the QB's eyes. I was never that fast in HS but i knew how to break up passes and intercept balls pretty easily because i watched the QB and made the correct decisions. There is NEVER a perfect safety in football. They ALL get beat somewhere. As good as Atwater was he got torched a few times himself but there's no question he was a great player in other areas. Although i think overall Carter will be the better of the two Mayock made it a point to say during the draft that if Carter learns to trust his instincts and go with his anticipations he could be one of the bigger steals in the draft. Bottom line, safeties really dont need to be fast, just smart. If you got one that can anticipate and study the QB they have the whole field under surveilance.

Very good points. John Lynch was a case in point. He never had that "elite"
speed, of course. All he did was to lift the Broncos' safety position to
another level when he arrived . . .

-----

Dzone
05-01-2011, 11:44 AM
great analysis. Thanks. Getting the 2 best safeties and the best linebacker is very exciting. We will get a good DT in free agency or trade. This is a draft to feel goodabout