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omac
09-26-2007, 04:14 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7265078?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=5


Week 4 NFL Rundown
FootballOutsiders.com

It's time to turn back the clock. This week, the Rundown staff is wearing our throwback uniforms!

Rundown first appeared on the Internet back in 1982. Back then, we only had a handful of readers: Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Al Gore, Marty Bishop, Gary Gygax and Al Davis (he had his fingers in everything). Readers turned on their Commodore 64s, placed the phone receiver on the modem, waited about 45 minutes, then enjoyed a Rundown full of tidbits about Gifford Neilson and jokes about Irv Cross. Few remember those halcyon days, but if you could see inside the Rundown offices, you'd get a gander at what Web life was like 25 years ago.

Male staffers are wearing Choose Life tee-shirts under pink unconstructed blazers with parachute pants and adidas kicks. Female staffers are resplendent in Madonna's Boy Toy collection, accessorized with leg warmers, their hair dyed Cyndi Lauper hues. In the parlance of the day, we look mahh-velous. Some of the duds aren't historically accurate, but football teams don't wear leather helmets with their throwback jerseys, so we can cheat a little.

With all of the pastel, neon and acid wash on display around here, it looks like we all dove headfirst into flea market bins. But we still look better than most NFL teams do on throwback day. The Steelers looked like burnt pretzels in their throwbacks. The Redskins, as Rich Eisen pointed out, resembled Radio Shack employees. The Eagles wore light blue lederhosen straight from the legs of 17th century European courtesans. All three teams displayed a strange obsession with the color yellow: canary yellow, saffron yellow, searing-corona-during-an-eclipse yellow.

Given the choice, we'll take 1980s day at Rundown headquarters. You can keep your throwback jerseys. We're happy watching our favorite throwback quarterback.

Games to watch

Packers at Vikings: Rundown has been telling you for three weeks that the Packers are good, but you remained skeptical. Maybe that win against the Chargers convinced you the Packers are for real. They are going to beat Kelly's Heroes (or Tarvaris' Terrors if Tarvaris Jackson's groin heals) this week, they are going to be 4-0, and they will win at least 10 games this season. And since we mistakenly mentioned an injured Packer (our apologies to the Noah Herron Fan Club), we'd like to list several active players who deserve credit for the Packers' hot start.

On defense: Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins, pass-rushing ends who make quarterbacks think twice before taking a seven-step drop. Nick Barnett, the middle linebacker whose interceptions against the Eagles and Packers were difference-makers. A.J. Hawk, young playmaking linebacker with superstar potential. Cornerback Al Harris, who still draws a few flags but usually blankets the No. 1 receiver. Cornerback Darren Woodson, still a phenomenal athlete with the closing speed to turn an incorrect guess into an interception.

On offense: Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, veteran tackles who stabilize an offensive line full of youngsters. Donald Driver, a true top wideout who doesn't always get his due. Bubba Franks, the old-school tight end who is still a capable blocker and red zone target. Greg Jennings and James Jones, exciting young secondary targets in the passing game.

Oh, yeah, and Brett Favre. We don't want to hear about how much he has slipped from his heyday, true as it may be. We don't want to start speculating about whether he'll come back in 2008 if the Packers make the playoffs. We just want to enjoy what we see: a superstar turned (gulp) game manager, a guy who is having fun and winning games with a team full of guys who were on the high school JV squad when he was having 30-touchdown seasons.

The Packers are no mirage. And they are no one-man team. They are NFC noisemakers. When they face the Bears in two weeks, they may really go boom.

Eagles at Giants: Back in our college days, we had a math professor whose favorite saying was "True, but not interesting." After we factored a polynomial that didn't need factoring or integrated a function that should have been disintegrated, the old professor would use that saying to remind us that while our calculations were correct, we were headed in the wrong direction.

When Donovan McNabb said last week that he endured greater criticism and fan pressure because of his race, we thought immediately of that old professor. True, Donovan, obviously, undeniably true. But not interesting. When your team is 0-2 and your offense is treating the end zone like a Superfund site, you're going to get a healthy dose of thoughtful, legitimate criticism to go with the ever-present knee jerk nonsense. Fix the offense and win some games, and your doubters will be limited to the Archie Bunker crowd. Sadly, Archie and his ilk never go away, but success makes it easy to shout them down.

McNabb threw four touchdown passes last week against a completely incompetent Lions defense, and the only color the fans saw after the game was the phosphorescent gold of the team's throwback uniforms, a color now seared onto our retinas. The win was crucial after the team's sloppy start, but the Eagles can't afford to celebrate very long. The Giants righted their own ship against Washington last week. The Giants defense, missing in action like the Eagles offense in the opening weeks, snapped back into form just in time to keep the team from sinking to the bottom of the division.

The Giants and Eagles met three times last year. The Giants won the first matchup in overtime after a wild fourth-quarter comeback, while the Jeff Garcia-led Eagles took both the late season rematch and a playoff game. The Giants played the Eagles tight in both losses (the 36-22 game was closer than the score), but they are now without their greatest anti-Philly weapon, Tiki Barber, who is presently wedged between Ryan Seacrest and Regis Philbin on the Annoying Media Personality Index. Barber vexed the Eagles in ways that the Giants' current crop of runners — including Derrick Ward, Reuben Droughns and injured Brandon Jacobs — cannot.

With Barber out of the equation and Brian Dawkins likely to be back in action, the Eagles will be free to blitz Eli Manning to distraction. The Giants defense, helped by an overly fussy Redskins game plan last week, is still short on talent and manpower. McNabb carved up the Giants in a losing effort last season. If he can build on the success he had throwing to Kevin Curtis last week while mixing in some other targets, the Eagles will coast to a win.

That will silence the McNabb criticism for, oh, two or three days. And it will make the NFC East, currently Cowboys-dominated, truly interesting.

Broncos at Colts: When the Broncos acquired cornerback Dre' Bly to join Champ Bailey and John Lynch in their star-studded secondary, they were clearly preparing for battle against receiver-rich AFC foes like the Colts and Patriots. They weren't expecting any trouble from the likes of David Garrard and the Jaguars. But after Garrard's passing and running helped the Jaguars chew up 39 minutes of the clock and convert seven of 10 first half third downs, the Broncos know their defense needs some fine-tuning. "Peyton and the boys will be waiting for us," linebacker Nate Webster said after losing to Jacksonville. "We have to get it back together quick."

They may have to get it back together without Lynch, who left the Jaguars game with a knee injury, and nickel defender Domonique Foxworth, who has been out for several weeks with a bad ankle. Reserve safety Hamza Abdullah is also out, forcing Mike Shanahan to dip into the practice squad in search of defensive backs. That's not something you want to do against the Colts, who are always willing to beat you with Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez if Bailey and Bly are covering Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

The post-Jaguars jitters in Denver may seem a little premature; after all, the Broncos defense easily dispatched the Bills and Raiders. But the Bills and Raiders dispense points with an eyedropper, while the Colts and Chargers (Denver's next opponent) open the spigot. The Colts also excel at ball control, and they'll use Joseph Addai to attack a Broncos defense that struggled with gap control against the Jaguars.

It all adds up to a terrible matchup for the Broncos, who needed last-second field goals to beat weak opponents in the first two weeks of the season and hardly look like a threat to the Colts, Patriots and Steelers for AFC supremacy in the early going. The Bly-Bailey combination can only do so much when the rest of the defense is sloppy. The Broncos offense is good, but it isn't built to outscore the Colts. Look for the Colts to repeat the formula they used against the Titans and Texans. They'll chew up the clock, score just enough points, and milk their lead.

Texans at Falcons: It seemed like a great idea at the time. The Falcons had two quarterbacks but needed additional draft picks. The Texans needed a new passer to replace David Carr. The Falcons and Texans shuffled some draft picks, Matt Schaub signed a new deal with Houston after being traded, and both teams left the bargaining table happy.

Stop. Wait. It didn't seem like a great idea at the time. It seemed like a dreadful idea at the time. Long before we knew anything about Bad Newz Kennels, we knew that Michael Vick was a platinum-plated flake who flipped the bird to fans and brought fake water bottles on airplanes. We also knew he was an inaccurate passer with little interest in the finer points of game-planning or defense reading. The Falcons left new coach Bobby Petrino without a security blanket when they traded Schaub. Now, they're flailing around in search of a quarterback. Sure, Joey Harrington played well against the Panthers last week, but the Falcons wouldn't have signed Byron Leftwich if they had any long-term confidence in Harrington.

Schaub, meanwhile, has been as good as advertised in Houston. He fell back to earth a bit last week against the Colts — the whole Texans team did — but a 27-of-33 performance ain't half bad, especially when your No. 1 receiver (Andre Johnson) is hurt. Schaub has great pocket poise and makes more good reads than bad. When Falcons fans see him warming up in the Georgia Dome, they'll be muttering to themselves about what might have been.

Now, all that being said, we're picking the Falcons in this game. The Texans enter the game with both Johnson and Jacoby Jones out, leaving Schaub with no one to throw to. Center Steve McKinney is out for the year, thrusting 34-year old retread Mike Flanagan into the lineup. Ahman Green has a swollen ankle and may be limited. The Texans won't be able to move the ball. Their young defense is impressive, but not impressive enough to lay three points on the road when half the offense is on crutches.

The Falcons may win on Sunday, but the Texans are the long-term winners. They have a quarterback. The Falcons don't.

omac
09-26-2007, 04:15 PM
continuation .....


Chiefs at Chargers: Can you imagine Herm Edwards and Norv Turner playing "Stratego"?

Edwards: I've got a great Field Marshal. I'm gonna run him right up the middle. Right up the middle, between those two lakes, with no other pieces supporting him. Gonna do it 416 times, run him right over your army. Try to stop him. Just try to stop him.

Turner: Well, I've been using the same strategy for 15 years, since back when I had that special "Stratego" set in Dallas with three Field Marshals, four Generals, and five extra bombs to defend my flag. Everybody thought I was a genius then, so there's no reason for me to change now.

Edwards: Where are my Lieutenants? Where are they? I can't find them. How much time do I have to make my move? Oh no, timeout! Timeout!

Turner: My Miners don't really feel like defusing bombs today. No big deal. I'll let them make their own rules. I'm not worried. If I get fired, some terrible team will hire me as an "Uno" coordinator.

Edwards: A spy got my Marshal. Who's in charge of the army now? Here we go. You want to ask, so ask. We play to capture the flag. It's that simple. We play ... to capture ... the flag.

And so on. Two of the NFL's less scintillating strategists face off on Sunday, but only one has real talent at his disposal. The Chargers are on a two-game skid, but their early schedule was brutal. Don't overreact to losses to the angry Patriots and surprising Packers, the Chargers are still pretty good. The Chiefs were lucky to beat a Vikings team whose starting quarterback worked for a different team six weeks ago.

The Chargers will win this week, but the schedule ahead features several more tough opponents, including the Broncos, Colts, Jaguars and Ravens. There are probably two losses in there. When Turner and Edwards square off again in Week 13, they won't be playing "Stratego". They'll be playing "Sorry."

Steelers at Cardinals: The worst thing about coaching the Cardinals is, well, they're the Cardinals. The best thing is that a coach has some freedom to experiment. Ken Whisenhunt was able to tinker with a rotating quarterback system last week — Matt Leinart got the start, Kurt Warner ran the no-huddle package — because he didn't have the ghosts of Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher looking over his shoulder. If he tried anything that daring in Pittsburgh, longtime fans might have given him the pitchforks-and-torches treatment.

On the surface, the Leinart-Warner rotation looks like a panic move after only three games. But give Whisenhunt the benefit of the doubt. The move opened up the playbook and momentarily stunned the Ravens. Plus, it may have reminded Leinart that film work and preparation isn't a week-on, week-off commitment. Leinart is still the starter, but he and opponents now know that Whisenhunt has a quick trigger and will juggle passers to gain an edge. It's a bad long-term strategy, but it will give the Cardinals' next few opponents something to think about.

It's too early to tell if Whisenhunt is injecting Steelers-ness into the Cardinals, or if he contracted Cardinals-ness upon reaching the desert, leaving his own Steelers-ness to desiccate and blow away. One thing is certain; the Steelers aren't missing their former offensive guru very much. The Steelers still don't quite have the hang of new coordinator Bruce Arians' scheme (Ben Roethlisberger spends an awful lot of time running around), but the Willie Parker-heavy offense is good enough to complement the scary defense and suddenly effective special teams.

Don't worry about the Warner Shuffle this week. Take the Steelers and enjoy their blitz-happy show.

Patriots at Bengals: Early odds on who will be the first team to beat the Patriots: the Bengals, 4-1; the Cowboys (Week 6), 7-2; the Colts (Week 9), 5-2; the Steelers (Week 14), 3-1; the Jets in the Video Bowl (Week 15); 8-1. No-one: 20-1.

When the schedules came out, the Bengals looked like a tough test for the Patriots. But that was before the Patriots outscored their first three opponents 114-35. It was also before we got a long look at the Bengals defense, which settled down a bit last week after the 51-point debacle against Cleveland but is still vulnerable to the run and the short pass (their special teams are pretty bad, too). If you can't cover Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, Nate Burleson or Deion Branch, you are in for a long night against Randy Moss and those 12 other guys Tom Brady throws to.

Simple rule of thumb, don't bet against the Patriots until a team comes within 14 points of them. The Bengals may get that close this week, but they won't cover.

Nutshells
Jets at Bills: J.P Losman is out for a few weeks with a knee injury, leaving rookie Trent Edwards as the Bills quarterback. Exciting rookie linebacker Paul Posluszny broke his arm against the Patriots and is out for the year. The Bills are running out of players that anyone has actually heard of. The Jets face the Bills twice before their bye week; mix in some other beatable opponents (the Giants, the Redskins, the unspectacular Eagles and Bengals) and the Jets should enter the bye 6-3 or 5-4. They'll be buried in the AFC East, but they'll be in acceptable position for a wild card run.

Rams at Cowboys: The Rams were everyone's favorite Cinderella team in the off-season based on their talent at the skill positions, some impressive acquisitions, and an optimistic appraisal of the coaching staff. Unfortunately, few noticed that they lacked depth on the offensive line and that their run defense needed more than a tune-up. Once Orlando Pace went down, Scott Linehan was forced to throttle down the Rams high-powered offense in favor of better pass protection. Now that running back Steven Jackson is out for at least a week and Marc Bulger is battling a rib injury, points will be even harder to come by. "We're on our butt right now," Bulger said after losing to the Bucs. "We've got to get up, we've got to get ready for Dallas." Easier said than done. Don't look for an upset here.

Seahawks at Niners: The Seahawks offense isn't exactly humming — their receivers dropped six passes last week against the Bengals — and their defense isn't overpowering anyone. Still, the Seahawks are a fumbled handoff away from a 3-0 record, and while they lack overpowering strengths, they also have few weaknesses. Their balance on offense, defense and special teams will help them prevail against a Niners team that tries to beat opponents with defensive intensity alone. The Niners swept the Seahawks last season, but the Seahawks are healthier and more talented this year than last. Oh, and don't expect ex-Seahawks receiver Darrell Jackson to have much of an impact this week. Jackson has just three catches in three games, in part because Alex Smith doesn't complete many passes more than six yards downfield.

Bucs at Panthers: As we've mentioned in past weeks, the Football Outsiders mainframe predicted that the Buccaneers would win ten games. We assumed that there was a bug in the system — we called it The Kitna Virus — and scrubbed the memory clean of everything except old football stats, saved Elder Scrolls games and pictures of Natalie Gulbis. The mainframe is schooling us in the early going, but we still don't believe that a team can keep winning with Earnest Graham as its most effective running back and 35-year-old Joey Galloway as the lone receiving option. Normally, we'd call on the Panthers to bring balance back to the universe; after all, the Panthers are 7-1 against the Bucs in their last eight meetings. But the Panthers defense (one sack in three games) isn't playing to their potential right now, and Jake Delhomme (throwing arm) may not be available. Is the computer smarter than we are? Probably, but let's play wait-and-see for a few weeks before crowning its silicon-plated butt.

Raiders at Dolphins: Hey, LaMont Jordan, how does it feel to win? "It feels good. It's a good start," Jordan said after Oakland's surprisingly entertaining 26-24 win against Cleveland, which snapped an 11-game losing streak dating back to last October. Hey Ronnie Brown, how does it feel to be 0-3? "We still have a long way to go as a team," Brown said after the loss to the Jets.

Daunte Culpepper may get the start for the Raiders, but it's hard to play up the Daunte's Revenge angle because he only spent as much time in Florida as your typical East Coast snowbird. The real news is that the Raiders, while bad, are no longer a laughingstock, and their offensive line is now good enough to keep them in games and their quarterbacks upright. "I'm happy for my offensive linemen," Jordan said. "Those guys took a beating last year." We won't make a pick with the Raiders quarterback situation up in the air, but the early lines (Dolphins by four) show that Vegas is wise to Oakland's ability to stick with opponents.

Ravens at Browns: This is a revenge game. Jamal Lewis wants a piece of his old team. That's not all. Derek Anderson is an ex-Raven, and he's ticked that he never got a chance, a real shot, on a team that gave every Tom, **** and Anthony Wright a few snaps at quarterback. And of course, Cleveland fans still remember that the Ravens used to be the Browns, though the rest of us are slowly killing the neurons that contain that information with cheap booze and "King of the Hill" reruns. If you can't work yourself into a lather over the Browns' quest for vengeance, it's because you know that a) Anderson isn't an NFL quarterback, despite that fluky game two weeks ago; b) the Ravens defense, momentarily stunned by the resurrection of Kurt Warner, will bounce back quickly from last week's near letdown, and c) the Ravens should win easily whether Steve McNair or Kyle Boller is under center.

Bears at Lions: Dear Lovie Smith,

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Football Lovers Everywhere.