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Hawgdriver
09-22-2008, 10:33 PM
I looked at a few numbers to see if they proved my hunch that our pass defense is atrocious. We've given up 315 yards per game, and opposing QBs have a 115 QB rating. Usually a QB with a rating that high will win, but we know how well our offense has played and why we're 3-0.

My pet theory was that our line play is so bad, we aren't getting enough pressure to affect the opponent's passing game. Another theory is that our style of defense or coverage scheme (zone/man) is faulty.

The first thing to consider is that teams are passing on us a bunch. We are in these shootouts and opposing teams drop the run early. For that reason, the 315 yards per game is more understandable (barely). Still, we are giving up 4.4 yards per carry, which is below average. On the good side, we are ranked 8th of 32 teams in rushing 1st down percentage, which means that we have shown the ability to stop the run when it counts. But back to the argument about if the passing defense is as bad as we think.

The yardage issue may be partly to blame on game dynamics--we're running the score up and forcing teams to pass. But this doesn't explain the QB rating, which at 115 is only worse than the Lions and Rams. You would have to think that a decent pass defense is causing the hurries, pressures, and sacks that rattle a QB and cause mistakes. So let's break down how much pressure the unit is generating.

Through three games, the Broncos have had 5 QB sacks. That's about 1.7 per game. League average so far is 2.2 per game, which is roughly in line with a full season. No great info there. Then you think about the fact that teams have been passing a lot, so you have to determine the sack rate, or sacks/attempts. Teams have passed on the Broncos 107 times, and the league average is 90--so you would expect more sacks from the Broncos. Their sack/attempt rate is 4.7%, which is good for 10th worst. Hard to believe there are 9 teams that find it harder to get to the QB.

Besides sacks, you would think you might generate more INTs from a good pass defense. Although this is a fickle metric, because it relies on a DB's hands and weird deflections, and doesn't happen often enough to make sound observations through three games, you still want to compare. The Broncos have 1 pick (and a questionable one at that, Champ's strip) in 107 attempts, which is better than only the five teams with 0 picks--KC, Cinci, Cowboys, Rams, and Lions. We notice that the teams with very low sack rates also have the worst INT rates. We'll combine them for what I'll call a 'pass failure rate'.

The pass failure rate is sack % + 2 times INT %. Using this, there are four teams with worse pass failure rates than the Broncos...any guesses? If you guessed Rams and Lions you get a prize to be determined later. The other two are the Chiefs and the Bengals.

But wait...how about degree of difficulty? After all, the Bengals faced some good offensive lines by playing the Giants, Ravens, and Titans. In fact, those teams have allowed a combined 7 sacks over 9 games. Take the Bengals out of the picture and that's 6 sacks in 6 games. Still pretty grim, but more palatable. The Broncos opponents have allowed 10 sacks in 9 games, or 5 sacks in 6 non-Bronco games (1.7/game vs. 0.8/game when not playing the Broncos). The teams that look really rank are the Chiefs (only 2 sacks but 22 in 6 non-Chiefs games of their opponents, or a 0.7/game rate vs. 3.7/game when their opponents play other teams), Rams and Lions (1 vs. 2.5).

It would be too tedious to trudge through each team's matchups to give a ranking to the Broncos in terms of sack rate differential (Broncos generate 1.7/game vs. a 0.8/game opponent, for a +0.9/game differential, whereas the Chiefs are -3.0/game), but the good news is that it's positive. That is, the Saints, Raiders, and Chargers are tough teams to get sacks from.

My conclusion is that it's too early to write off the Bronco's pass defense. They have showed very little ability to get pressure on the QB, but part of the explanation may lie in the fact that they have been playing teams that are very good at protecting the QB.

In addition, the untested theory about playing a poor scheme might need to be tested (which might be evidenced through a league worst 72% completion percentage, 3rd worst yards/attempt allowed, and 4th worst 1st down percentage, once QB skill is accounted for). For now, I'm not ready to pin all of the blame on the line or the pass rush, it might actually prove decent once we play teams with worse passer protection.

There is no question that this is an area that needs to see dramatic improvement in some form, whether it's different blitzes, different coverage, or an improved pass rush from the line, if we are going to be a championship worthy team.

Lonestar
09-22-2008, 10:46 PM
Great work up


so the conclusion is our pass defense sucks.. did I get that correct?

If it changes will you let me know..

Actually I am interested in your numbers and would like to see if they bear out your theory..

Hawgdriver
09-22-2008, 10:52 PM
I was laughing when I finished because the conclusion is kinda obvious...the overall pass D is terrible so far. But I do expect to see more pressure in the future than what we've seen to this point. I think we'll see an overall uptick in our pass defense in terms of sacks and the associated pressure as we play more teams, but there is still a huge problem overall that doesn't have any explanation besides "they are bad."

Yeah, kinda obvious and doesn't need numbers...:laugh:

Lonestar
09-22-2008, 10:56 PM
I was laughing when I finished because the conclusion is kinda obvious...the overall pass D is terrible so far. But I do expect to see more pressure in the future than what we've seen to this point. I think we'll see an overall uptick in our pass defense in terms of sacks and the associated pressure as we play more teams, but there is still a huge problem overall that doesn't have any explanation besides "they are bad."

Yeah, kinda obvious and doesn't need numbers...:laugh:

one of those can;t see the forest for the trees type of things..

Pardon this one "figures never lie but liars always figure"..

Not implication here but I am interested if you have the patience to do this the rest of the year to hear what you think..

TO see if there is any real change. or if we will be consistently bad regardless of the competition..

Hawgdriver
09-22-2008, 11:05 PM
I predict 4 sacks and at least 1 pick against the Chiefs, 3 sacks/picks or less and I'll close the book and write them off. The Chiefs give up sacks like nobody's business.

hamrob
09-22-2008, 11:07 PM
Nice work up...but really...what are you telling us? That, we've played some good teams and therefore our defense has sucked. But, when we play some worse teams they'll look better. Hey, that's my guess too.

Still says that they're not very good...especially against good teams.

omac
09-22-2008, 11:15 PM
Wow, nice work, Hawgdriver! :salute:

As I was watching the Chargers x Jets game, I saw the Jets have difficulty in pressuring Rivers too (although they did get a pick 6 on him). The Chargers scored 45 points against them. Someone's posted on the Chiefs trap game thread that we'll get a better look at our defense when it faces a weak offensive team like the Chiefs. I agree; I also think we need to see how the Broncos do against a good, but not great, offensive team.

Regarding pressuring the QB; last season, SD was known as a feared defensive unit, but this season because they never really had a 100% Merriman, they their pass rush hasn't been effective, and the whole defense looks ordinary to bad at times. What a difference one player makes.

Someone also posted on the defense thread that while other teams have defenders in the right places to contest a pass, ours seem to be nowhere near the pass. We tackle them after the catch, but we very rarely contest them. I want our defenders at least contesting the pass, instead of giving up so much buffer.

Hawgdriver
09-22-2008, 11:34 PM
Nice work up...but really...what are you telling us? That, we've played some good teams and therefore our defense has sucked. But, when we play some worse teams they'll look better. Hey, that's my guess too.

Still says that they're not very good...especially against good teams.

We did better against the teams we faced this year compared to everyone else they faced in terms of getting to the QB. This surprised me and gives me a very small glimmer of hope. In times like these, hope is all we can ask for...

dogfish
09-23-2008, 12:12 AM
Analysis of pass defense through week 3


to quote tony reali. . . "they stink-- the end!"


so, what's my prize to be determined later?

:laugh:





now that you've proven that the pass D is as bad on paper as they are on the field, how about an updated power ranking for the league of elites?

gobroncsnv
09-23-2008, 07:12 AM
My conclusion is that it's too early to write off the Bronco's pass defense. They have showed very little ability to get pressure on the QB, but part of the explanation may lie in the fact that they have been playing teams that are very good at protecting the QB.


Only bummer of this is that the teams good at this are usually the ones that go deep into the playoffs. The Pat's oline got way exposed in the last SB, but before that, Brady's uni was always pretty clean.
Turning that one around, the Giants have pretty good db's, but not stellar players back there. I don't think any of them went to Hawaii. But their play was elevated by having such a fab 4 on the dline. Even with no Strahan or Umenyiora, their dline is still pretty good. I would love to have even half that much talent in predominantly orange.

Thnikkaman
09-23-2008, 08:50 AM
I looked at a few numbers to see if they proved my hunch that our pass defense is atrocious. We've given up 315 yards per game, and opposing QBs have a 115 QB rating. Usually a QB with a rating that high will win, but we know how well our offense has played and why we're 3-0.

My pet theory was that our line play is so bad, we aren't getting enough pressure to affect the opponent's passing game. Another theory is that our style of defense or coverage scheme (zone/man) is faulty.

The first thing to consider is that teams are passing on us a bunch. We are in these shootouts and opposing teams drop the run early. For that reason, the 315 yards per game is more understandable (barely). Still, we are giving up 4.4 yards per carry, which is below average. On the good side, we are ranked 8th of 32 teams in rushing 1st down percentage, which means that we have shown the ability to stop the run when it counts. But back to the argument about if the passing defense is as bad as we think.

The yardage issue may be partly to blame on game dynamics--we're running the score up and forcing teams to pass. But this doesn't explain the QB rating, which at 115 is only worse than the Lions and Rams. You would have to think that a decent pass defense is causing the hurries, pressures, and sacks that rattle a QB and cause mistakes. So let's break down how much pressure the unit is generating.

Through three games, the Broncos have had 5 QB sacks. That's about 1.7 per game. League average so far is 2.2 per game, which is roughly in line with a full season. No great info there. Then you think about the fact that teams have been passing a lot, so you have to determine the sack rate, or sacks/attempts. Teams have passed on the Broncos 107 times, and the league average is 90--so you would expect more sacks from the Broncos. Their sack/attempt rate is 4.7%, which is good for 10th worst. Hard to believe there are 9 teams that find it harder to get to the QB.

Besides sacks, you would think you might generate more INTs from a good pass defense. Although this is a fickle metric, because it relies on a DB's hands and weird deflections, and doesn't happen often enough to make sound observations through three games, you still want to compare. The Broncos have 1 pick (and a questionable one at that, Champ's strip) in 107 attempts, which is better than only the five teams with 0 picks--KC, Cinci, Cowboys, Rams, and Lions. We notice that the teams with very low sack rates also have the worst INT rates. We'll combine them for what I'll call a 'pass failure rate'.

The pass failure rate is sack % + 2 times INT %. Using this, there are four teams with worse pass failure rates than the Broncos...any guesses? If you guessed Rams and Lions you get a prize to be determined later. The other two are the Chiefs and the Bengals.

But wait...how about degree of difficulty? After all, the Bengals faced some good offensive lines by playing the Giants, Ravens, and Titans. In fact, those teams have allowed a combined 7 sacks over 9 games. Take the Bengals out of the picture and that's 6 sacks in 6 games. Still pretty grim, but more palatable. The Broncos opponents have allowed 10 sacks in 9 games, or 5 sacks in 6 non-Bronco games (1.7/game vs. 0.8/game when not playing the Broncos). The teams that look really rank are the Chiefs (only 2 sacks but 22 in 6 non-Chiefs games of their opponents, or a 0.7/game rate vs. 3.7/game when their opponents play other teams), Rams and Lions (1 vs. 2.5).

It would be too tedious to trudge through each team's matchups to give a ranking to the Broncos in terms of sack rate differential (Broncos generate 1.7/game vs. a 0.8/game opponent, for a +0.9/game differential, whereas the Chiefs are -3.0/game), but the good news is that it's positive. That is, the Saints, Raiders, and Chargers are tough teams to get sacks from.

My conclusion is that it's too early to write off the Bronco's pass defense. They have showed very little ability to get pressure on the QB, but part of the explanation may lie in the fact that they have been playing teams that are very good at protecting the QB.

In addition, the untested theory about playing a poor scheme might need to be tested (which might be evidenced through a league worst 72% completion percentage, 3rd worst yards/attempt allowed, and 4th worst 1st down percentage, once QB skill is accounted for). For now, I'm not ready to pin all of the blame on the line or the pass rush, it might actually prove decent once we play teams with worse passer protection.

There is no question that this is an area that needs to see dramatic improvement in some form, whether it's different blitzes, different coverage, or an improved pass rush from the line, if we are going to be a championship worthy team.

What I am getting from this is that our young pass defense is having a hard time getting to the quarterback against exceptional pass defenses. Its like a group of mountain climbers that have enjoyed some success climbing the Appalachian hills attempted to climb Pikes Peak and Mt. Everest. We need these games agains the bottom dwellers to hone some of our pass rushing skills to become better.

I would be willing to bet Phyllis doesn't throw for as many yards in December unless we are resting our starters for the playoffs.

That or everyone is right in saying our D is crap, and as soon as our offense stumbles, we won't be any better then the Jets. I refuse to believe that.

hamrob
09-23-2008, 10:01 AM
My conclusion is that it's too early to write off the Bronco's pass defense. They have showed very little ability to get pressure on the QB, but part of the explanation may lie in the fact that they have been playing teams that are very good at protecting the QB.

This is really the only positive spin we can put on our poor defensive showing. Here is a little bit more to chew on. Our defense is ranked 30th in the NFL...primarily because of San Diego and New Orleans. Here are the top Offenses in the NFL after 3 weeks:


Offensive Leaders
NAME YDS YPG RUSH RUSH YPG PASS PASS YPG PTS PTS/G
1 Dallas 1320 440.0 452 150.7 868 289.3 96 32.0
2 Denver 1296 432.0 391 130.3 905 301.7 114 38.0
3 NY Giants 1201 400.3 471 157.0 730 243.3 83 27.7
4 New Orleans 1190 396.7 244 81.3 946 315.3 80 26.7
5 San Diego 1129 376.3 292 97.3 837 279.0 110 36.7

So, we know that we don't have an elite defense...as we can't stop the best offenses...but after we play a few lesser offensive teams...it will all even out. At the end of the day...our defense will probably be ranked in between 10-15. Not great, but not as bad as they appear right now. The question that all of us have...is whether they can stop a top offense when it matters most...in the Playoffs. Right now...we'd have to say no...which is why so many of us are down on them! IMO.

Lonestar
09-23-2008, 10:22 AM
What I am getting from this is that our young pass defense is having a hard time getting to the quarterback against exceptional pass defenses. Its like a group of mountain climbers that have enjoyed some success climbing the Appalachian hills attempted to climb Pikes Peak and Mt. Everest. We need these games agains the bottom dwellers to hone some of our pass rushing skills to become better.

I would be willing to bet Phyllis doesn't throw for as many yards in December unless we are resting our starters for the playoffs.

That or everyone is right in saying our D is crap, and as soon as our offense stumbles, we won't be any better then the Jets. I refuse to believe that.


I think that our D is going to have a quantum leap if that statement rings true.. he destroyed the Jets last night and leads the NFL in TD pass as we speak..

We got lucky in having LT and Gates not being at full strength in that game.. Unless the same thing happens in SAN that will be another shoot out IMO..

Our DLINE can not put pressure on anyone in the current scheme..

turftoad
09-23-2008, 10:27 AM
:confused: We have a pass defense? :confused:




:D

Lonestar
09-23-2008, 10:29 AM
This is really the only positive spin we can put on our poor defensive showing. Here is a little bit more to chew on. Our defense is ranked 30th in the NFL...primarily because of San Diego and New Orleans. Here are the top Offenses in the NFL after 3 weeks:


Offensive Leaders
NAME YDS YPG RUSH RUSH YPG PASS PASS YPG PTS PTS/G
1 Dallas 1320 440.0 452 150.7 868 289.3 96 32.0
2 Denver 1296 432.0 391 130.3 905 301.7 114 38.0
3 NY Giants 1201 400.3 471 157.0 730 243.3 83 27.7
4 New Orleans 1190 396.7 244 81.3 946 315.3 80 26.7
5 San Diego 1129 376.3 292 97.3 837 279.0 110 36.7

So, we know that we don't have an elite defense...as we can't stop the best offenses...but after we play a few lesser offensive teams...it will all even out. At the end of the day...our defense will probably be ranked in between 10-15. Not great, but not as bad as they appear right now. The question that all of us have...is whether they can stop a top offense when it matters most...in the Playoffs. Right now...we'd have to say no...which is why so many of us are down on them! IMO.



let me complete your #4-5 teams
Total Offense (YPG)
1. Dallas Cowboys 440.0
2. Denver Broncos 432.0
3. New York Giants 400.3
4. New Orleans Saints 396.7
5. San Diego Chargers 376.3

Passing yards
1. New Orleans Saints 315.3
2. Denver Broncos 301.7
3. Dallas Cowboys 289.3
4. Philadelphia Eagles 289.3
5. San Diego Chargers 279.0


worst in defense
30 Denver Broncos 421.7
31 Detroit Lions 430.3
32 St. Louis Rams 456.7

Lonestar
09-23-2008, 10:30 AM
:confused: We have a pass defense? :confused:




:D


only two are worse.. loins and ramettes.

Thnikkaman
09-23-2008, 10:35 AM
I think that our D is going to have a quantum leap if that statement rings true.. he destroyed the Jets last night and leads the NFL in TD pass as we speak..

We got lucky in having LT and Gates not being at full strength in that game.. Unless the same thing happens in SAN that will be another shoot out IMO..

Our DLINE can not put pressure on anyone in the current scheme..

The only thing I will disagree with in this statement is that our D is going to need a quantum leap. I think our D will improve, and even though I didn't think it would be possible, our D is better than the Jets.

turftoad
09-23-2008, 10:43 AM
The only thing I will disagree with in this statement is that our D is going to need a quantum leap. I think our D will improve, and even though I didn't think it would be possible, our D is better than the Jets.

All I know is, if we are going to continue to put points on the board early and often, It forces teams to pass to keep up and stay in the game.

We have GOT to find a way to get pressure on the QB and stop the pass from the point where it begins. The QB.

Hawgdriver
09-23-2008, 11:33 AM
This is really the only positive spin we can put on our poor defensive showing. Here is a little bit more to chew on. Our defense is ranked 30th in the NFL...primarily because of San Diego and New Orleans. Here are the top Offenses in the NFL after 3 weeks:


Offensive Leaders
NAME YDS YPG RUSH RUSH YPG PASS PASS YPG PTS PTS/G
1 Dallas 1320 440.0 452 150.7 868 289.3 96 32.0
2 Denver 1296 432.0 391 130.3 905 301.7 114 38.0
3 NY Giants 1201 400.3 471 157.0 730 243.3 83 27.7
4 New Orleans 1190 396.7 244 81.3 946 315.3 80 26.7
5 San Diego 1129 376.3 292 97.3 837 279.0 110 36.7

So, we know that we don't have an elite defense...as we can't stop the best offenses...but after we play a few lesser offensive teams...it will all even out. At the end of the day...our defense will probably be ranked in between 10-15. Not great, but not as bad as they appear right now. The question that all of us have...is whether they can stop a top offense when it matters most...in the Playoffs. Right now...we'd have to say no...which is why so many of us are down on them! IMO.

Of course, part of the reason why NO and SD are way up there is they played us...so that's why I looked at the other teams they played. When they played teams besides us, they were also badass. I think we should have serious misgivings about what we've seen from the D so far, but I'm actually hopeful that things will pan out a little more. Heck, we beat those teams, and that's what really counts. So when you get to the discussion about 'can we face those elite offensive teams in the playoffs with this D', well...we've seen we can still have a positive outcome.

I guess I'm preaching a "have patience" line to the FIRE-SLOWIK'ers. I can only hope that he and others can pull their head out and find ways to exploit their talented young players. I know there are some who feel that Slowik is too wishy-washy, and that's a real concern. Best case is that the personnel groupings gain some mastery of their special roles in those variant schemes as time goes on, and we are able to exploit the added benefit of increased unpredictability...that's if we have the fundamental talent and skill, and if the learning can happen.

Thnikkaman
09-23-2008, 11:50 AM
let me complete your #4-5 teams
Total Offense (YPG)
1. Dallas Cowboys 440.0
2. Denver Broncos 432.0
3. New York Giants 400.3
4. New Orleans Saints 396.7
5. San Diego Chargers 376.3

Passing yards
1. New Orleans Saints 315.3
2. Denver Broncos 301.7
3. Dallas Cowboys 289.3
4. Philadelphia Eagles 289.3
5. San Diego Chargers 279.0


worst in defense
30 Denver Broncos 421.7
31 Detroit Lions 430.3
32 St. Louis Rams 456.7


But who have those other 4 teams played? We are the only team on those two lists that have played two other teams on that list.

I want to see this list again after week 8. I don't think we will implode, but that is just me being optimistic. At least we have scoreboard and a shiny 3-0 record.

Thnikkaman
09-23-2008, 11:53 AM
All I know is, if we are going to continue to put points on the board early and often, It forces teams to pass to keep up and stay in the game.

We have GOT to find a way to get pressure on the QB and stop the pass from the point where it begins. The QB.

All I am trying to say is be optimistic and patient now. If we implode, or give up 400 yards in the air to the Chiefs, Jaguars, Bills, etc, then we can sell the deed to the farm an move on to greener pastures (next year after we have had a heavy Defensive personnel based draft).

smith49
09-23-2008, 07:48 PM
I looked at a few numbers to see if they proved my hunch that our pass defense is atrocious. We've given up 315 yards per game, and opposing QBs have a 115 QB rating. Usually a QB with a rating that high will win, but we know how well our offense has played and why we're 3-0.

My pet theory was that our line play is so bad, we aren't getting enough pressure to affect the opponent's passing game. Another theory is that our style of defense or coverage scheme (zone/man) is faulty.

The first thing to consider is that teams are passing on us a bunch. We are in these shootouts and opposing teams drop the run early. For that reason, the 315 yards per game is more understandable (barely). Still, we are giving up 4.4 yards per carry, which is below average. On the good side, we are ranked 8th of 32 teams in rushing 1st down percentage, which means that we have shown the ability to stop the run when it counts. But back to the argument about if the passing defense is as bad as we think.

The yardage issue may be partly to blame on game dynamics--we're running the score up and forcing teams to pass. But this doesn't explain the QB rating, which at 115 is only worse than the Lions and Rams. You would have to think that a decent pass defense is causing the hurries, pressures, and sacks that rattle a QB and cause mistakes. So let's break down how much pressure the unit is generating.

Through three games, the Broncos have had 5 QB sacks. That's about 1.7 per game. League average so far is 2.2 per game, which is roughly in line with a full season. No great info there. Then you think about the fact that teams have been passing a lot, so you have to determine the sack rate, or sacks/attempts. Teams have passed on the Broncos 107 times, and the league average is 90--so you would expect more sacks from the Broncos. Their sack/attempt rate is 4.7%, which is good for 10th worst. Hard to believe there are 9 teams that find it harder to get to the QB.

Besides sacks, you would think you might generate more INTs from a good pass defense. Although this is a fickle metric, because it relies on a DB's hands and weird deflections, and doesn't happen often enough to make sound observations through three games, you still want to compare. The Broncos have 1 pick (and a questionable one at that, Champ's strip) in 107 attempts, which is better than only the five teams with 0 picks--KC, Cinci, Cowboys, Rams, and Lions. We notice that the teams with very low sack rates also have the worst INT rates. We'll combine them for what I'll call a 'pass failure rate'.

The pass failure rate is sack % + 2 times INT %. Using this, there are four teams with worse pass failure rates than the Broncos...any guesses? If you guessed Rams and Lions you get a prize to be determined later. The other two are the Chiefs and the Bengals.

But wait...how about degree of difficulty? After all, the Bengals faced some good offensive lines by playing the Giants, Ravens, and Titans. In fact, those teams have allowed a combined 7 sacks over 9 games. Take the Bengals out of the picture and that's 6 sacks in 6 games. Still pretty grim, but more palatable. The Broncos opponents have allowed 10 sacks in 9 games, or 5 sacks in 6 non-Bronco games (1.7/game vs. 0.8/game when not playing the Broncos). The teams that look really rank are the Chiefs (only 2 sacks but 22 in 6 non-Chiefs games of their opponents, or a 0.7/game rate vs. 3.7/game when their opponents play other teams), Rams and Lions (1 vs. 2.5).

It would be too tedious to trudge through each team's matchups to give a ranking to the Broncos in terms of sack rate differential (Broncos generate 1.7/game vs. a 0.8/game opponent, for a +0.9/game differential, whereas the Chiefs are -3.0/game), but the good news is that it's positive. That is, the Saints, Raiders, and Chargers are tough teams to get sacks from.

My conclusion is that it's too early to write off the Bronco's pass defense. They have showed very little ability to get pressure on the QB, but part of the explanation may lie in the fact that they have been playing teams that are very good at protecting the QB.

In addition, the untested theory about playing a poor scheme might need to be tested (which might be evidenced through a league worst 72% completion percentage, 3rd worst yards/attempt allowed, and 4th worst 1st down percentage, once QB skill is accounted for). For now, I'm not ready to pin all of the blame on the line or the pass rush, it might actually prove decent once we play teams with worse passer protection.

There is no question that this is an area that needs to see dramatic improvement in some form, whether it's different blitzes, different coverage, or an improved pass rush from the line, if we are going to be a championship worthy team.


i know a lot of guys don't care about the stats. i for one love them, keep em commin hawgdriver.

Bronco9798
09-23-2008, 08:02 PM
Getting sacks against teams like the Chiefs prove nothing, teams like that won't be in the playoffs. We need to play better against the better teams.

BigDaddyBronco
09-23-2008, 08:03 PM
Getting sacks against teams like the Chiefs prove nothing, teams like that won't be in the playoffs. We need to play better against the better teams.
Yea, but it will fun to watch. :D

Hawgdriver
09-24-2008, 02:00 PM
i know a lot of guys don't care about the stats. i for one love them, keep em commin hawgdriver.

This takes a lot of time, but I'll do analysis like this when it sheds light on something fuzzy. The outcome of this was of marginal use, but it's a reasonable use of stats.

There are people that scoff stats, or 'advanced' statistical analysis, but they usually are stubborn to admit they don't know it all. I compare it to baseball, where the headline stats are always ERA and batting average, which are next to useless in evaluating pitcher/hitter skill. You see the some of the best teams in baseball using advanced statistical analysis to field the best teams possible for the money (there's the whole 'Moneyball' Billy Beane school of thought that has received attention). If used well, stats can give you an edge.

The next analysis that I want to do is on defense. You see the Ravens get the other team off the field in a hurry--how do they do that? They clearly have some talent to work with, but how do they get the team off the field? I want to take a look to see if there are any hints besides 'good personnel' or 'good coaching'.

Hawgdriver
09-24-2008, 02:01 PM
Getting sacks against teams like the Chiefs prove nothing, teams like that won't be in the playoffs. We need to play better against the better teams.

Getting sacks against teams like the Chiefs prove we are not a cellar defense. Not getting sacks/picks proves we are a cellar defense.

Thnikkaman
09-24-2008, 02:25 PM
It would also be fair to say that the sample is still too small to accurately predict how the Denver Defense will perform this year. I would prefer to leave it at that for now .

Hawgdriver
09-24-2008, 03:02 PM
It would also be fair to say that the sample is still too small to accurately predict how the Denver Defense will perform this year. I would prefer to leave it at that for now .

Excellent point. While we can say that 73 rushing attempts is a decent sized sample, any analysis using that data would be skewed by the fact that those 73 attempts came mainly from 4-5 backs, and 3 offensive lines...same goes for passing analysis. It is very difficult to draw solid conclusions with the limited number of games played in the NFL (as compared to baseball).

What is interesting about looking at rushing so far is to see how similar it is to 2007 through three games.

Thnikkaman
09-24-2008, 03:16 PM
Excellent point. While we can say that 73 rushing attempts is a decent sized sample, any analysis using that data would be skewed by the fact that those 73 attempts came mainly from 4-5 backs, and 3 offensive lines...same goes for passing analysis. It is very difficult to draw solid conclusions with the limited number of games played in the NFL (as compared to baseball).

What is interesting about looking at rushing so far is to see how similar it is to 2007 through three games.

Certainly.

I enjoy your statistical analysis. Its just been driving me batty that people will make arguments based on such a small sample of a population. In this instance, the population being football games, or at even a more granular level, the number of defensive snaps taken by our team.

Superchop 7
09-24-2008, 04:12 PM
Pass defense is directly proportional to quarterback pressure.

lex
09-24-2008, 06:48 PM
All I am trying to say is be optimistic and patient now. If we implode, or give up 400 yards in the air to the Chiefs, Jaguars, Bills, etc, then we can sell the deed to the farm an move on to greener pastures (next year after we have had a heavy Defensive personnel based draft).

What doesnt that mean if we dont give up as many yards to them? The problem with that is that we will likely face good teams with good QBs in the post season if our defense or injuries dont prevent us from making it. Lets say we hold those teams you listed to under 300 yards passing and under 70%. OK, so. It means nothing if the next time we play a team with a good QB, we're automatically going to get torched again.

Besides, one of these days teams are just going to come out throwing with little concern for the run. The fact that teams have tried to establish balance the last couple of games has helped us amass 21-3 leads. If teams open it up from the outset, then what? Teams are basically amassing their ridiculous numbers in only 3 quarters.

smith49
09-24-2008, 07:04 PM
This takes a lot of time, but I'll do analysis like this when it sheds light on something fuzzy. The outcome of this was of marginal use, but it's a reasonable use of stats.

There are people that scoff stats, or 'advanced' statistical analysis, but they usually are stubborn to admit they don't know it all. I compare it to baseball, where the headline stats are always ERA and batting average, which are next to useless in evaluating pitcher/hitter skill. You see the some of the best teams in baseball using advanced statistical analysis to field the best teams possible for the money (there's the whole 'Moneyball' Billy Beane school of thought that has received attention). If used well, stats can give you an edge.

The next analysis that I want to do is on defense. You see the Ravens get the other team off the field in a hurry--how do they do that? They clearly have some talent to work with, but how do they get the team off the field? I want to take a look to see if there are any hints besides 'good personnel' or 'good coaching'.

hey hwag, i know it takes a ton of time, but seriously i freaking love it when someone (like say you:D) spends that time punchin' the numbers. i live in salt lake and we have a local guy (david locke) on sports radio and he is a huge stat guy, which is why i listen to him every day. i am way to lazy and or stupid to put them all together myself, so please don't stop any time soon. i will be looking for your next thread on the above mentioned defense analysis.:salute: