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Montana Battlin Bear
01-21-2011, 12:44 AM
For The last Ten Drafts In The Top 15.

I will mention what number they were selected and give my opinion on if bust or not.

D-Line---

1999-
15. Anthony McFarland-Average to a little above average DT
16. Jevon Kearse- Stud

2000
1. Courtney Brown- could have been 'alright' not in the league anymore.
6. Corey Simon- 1 Pro Bowl, retired in 2007
13. Shaun Ellis- Very good selection
14. John Abraham- Another Very good selection

2001
3. Gerard Warren--...bust
4. Justin Smith- solid player
6. Richard Seymour- very good selection
7. Andre Carter- has revamped his career in Washington
10. Jamal Reynolds- bust
12. Damione Lewis- average
13. Marcus Stroud- 3x pro bowl selection

2002
2. Julius Peppers- Beast
6. Ryan Sims- Bust
9. John Henderson- 2x pro bowl selection, hasn't done anything lately
11. Dwight Freeney- Stud
12. Wendell Bryant- Currently playing in the UFL
15. Albert Haynesworth- very talented, cancer for any team

2003
4. Dewayne Robertson- worked out great for us
6. Johnathan Sullivan- bust
9. Kevin Williams- stud
10 Terrell Suggs- beast, decided to put him in as a DE/OLB
12. Jimmy Kennedy- bust
13. Ty Warren- Solid player
14. Michael Haynes- bust
15. Jerome McDougle- bust

2004-
14. Tommie Harris- Pro Bowler

2005-
11. Demarcus Ware- Stud OLB/DE
16. Travis Johnson- Bust

2006-
1. Mario Williams- Pro Bowl Player
12. Haloti Ngata- Beast
13. Kamerion Wimbley- had a good season with the raiders
14. Brodrick Bunkley- average

2007-
4. Gaines Adams- situational pass rusher
8. Jamaal Anderson- bust
10. Amobi Okoye- average player
13. Adam Carriker- started every game this last year, average
16. Justin Harrel- bust

2008-
2. Chris Long- above average DE
5. Glenn Dorsey- did okay this last year
6. Vernon Gholston- bust
7. Sedrick Ellis- had a very good year this year, above average
8. Derrick Harvey- had 12 tackles and 2.5 sacks this year, below average.

2009-
3. Tyson Jackson- ask chiefs fans haha
9. B.J. Raji- very good selection
11. Aaron Maybin- too early but bills consider him a disappointment
13. Brian Orakpo- good pass rusher, pro bowler
16. Larry English- Too early, average

2010-
2. Ndamukong Suh- Beast
3. Gerald McCoy- looked pretty good his rookie year
10. Tyson Alualu- named to the all rookie team, looks solid
13. Brandon Graham-started 6 games, with 3 sacks.
15. Jason Pierre-Paul- 30 tackles, 4.5 sacks, behind Tuck and Umenyiora.
16. Derrick Morgan- average, too early too tell

In My own opinion with picking a D-Lineman in the top half of the First round gives you a 34.5% chance of getting an above average player.

Now On To Secondary

1999
7. Champ Bailey- Arguably best ever.
10. Chris Mcallister- 3x pro bowl selection

2000
15. Deltha O'Neal- Average

2001
NONE

2002
5. Quentin Jammer- Average to above average Corner
8. Roy Williams- 5x Pro Bowl Selection

2003
5. Terrence Newman- 2x Pro Bowl Selection
11. Marcus Trufant- 1 Pro Bowl Selection, Above Average
16. Troy Polamalu- Arguably Best Safety in the League

2004-
5. Sean Taylor- 2x pro bowl selection, all pro
8. Deangelo Hall- Pro Bowler
10. Dunta Robinson- Above average CB

2005-
6. Adam Jones- talented, but retarded
8. Antrel Rolle- Pro Bowler
9. Carlos Rogers- Above Average CB

2006-
7. Michael Huff-bust
8. Donte Whitner- had a good 2010, below average
15. Tye Hill- bust
16. Jason Allen- six int's in 2010, above average

2007-
6. Laron Landry- Pro Bowler
14. Darrelle Revis- Beast

2008-
11. Leodis McKelvin- average
16. Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie- Pro Bowler

2009-
14. Malcom Jenkins- average to above average CB

2010-
5. Eric Berry- young, already a stud
7. Joe Haden- 6 ints, going to be dang good
14. Earl Thomas- average right now, tons of potential

In my Opinion out of the top half of the first round over the last eleven years 70% of the secondary players taken are above average-all pro's this is my own findings and you guys can talk about it and come up with your own assessment of each player.

Now I'm not saying that we should select Peterson with the pick but look at the D-Lineman taken in the top 5 in the last eleven years 5 out of a total of 12 have amounted to something. That is a horrible percentage for top 5 picks. Look at the success that top picks in the secondary have. its over twice the percentage.


Discuss

cuzz4169
01-21-2011, 01:14 AM
Most d-line players are reaches. One reason is bc teams know to build a defense u need d-lineman and are willing to take the chance. And the second reason is besides qb defensive line is the hardest transition from college to pros. I don't like any d-lineman in the first rd this yr but fairley anyone else is a reach imo but teams will draft bc they need them. Patrick peterson is the sure thing. I want fairley but peterson not only will help when we lose champ ( I don't think he resigns) and peterson would b huge for us in the return game.

Northman
01-21-2011, 01:31 AM
Pretty good research on your part however, without going and looking at the respective teams for each player i can at least count 5 of those Dlineman who have been to the Super Bowl compared to only 1 Secondary player (Troy P) who has been on a SB team.

Buff
01-21-2011, 01:42 AM
Michael Strahan said it best the other day: The most important position in football is QB; the second most important position is the guy who can disrupt the QB (a pass rusher).

There are more d-linemen taken at the top of the draft because they are more coveted. The higher the pick, the higher the expectations... Plus a higher volume of picks is going to lead to a larger number of busts.

What your research doesn't take into account is the total impact on the game. A great d-lineman is always going to be more valuable than a great defensive back.

cuzz4169
01-21-2011, 01:56 AM
Pretty good research on your part however, without going and looking at the respective teams for each player i can at least count 5 of those Dlineman who have been to the Super Bowl compared to only 1 Secondary player (Troy P) who has been on a SB team.

I count 5-6 db's on the list have been to SB.

Montana Battlin Bear
01-21-2011, 02:00 AM
Pretty good research on your part however, without going and looking at the respective teams for each player i can at least count 5 of those Dlineman who have been to the Super Bowl compared to only 1 Secondary player (Troy P) who has been on a SB team.

I agree with this, but are we in agreement that this team will take more than one draft to fix the defense? All I am showing is that the chance of us picking a bust as a D-Lineman with the 2nd pick is very high as where picking a secondary player isn't as high. In my opinion D-Line is what we need the most, but we CANNOT afford to whiff with this pick. I feel we should pick the player who is fairly sure to be very good and then devote all our other picks to defensive line.

It seems like picking a Lineman in the 3rd round has had as much success as picking a lineman in the top 5.

My main thing is that I could argue that any 3 of the top D-Lineman could be busts. I don't see bust at all in Peterson.

Northman
01-21-2011, 02:25 AM
I count 5-6 db's on the list have been to SB.

I forgot about Chris M. from Bmore but can you show me the others? I dont recognize any others from those SB teams.


I agree with this, but are we in agreement that this team will take more than one draft to fix the defense?

Depends on the moves made both in the draft itself and in FA. Its not uncommon to turn a team around quickly even on the defensive side of the ball.


All I am showing is that the chance of us picking a bust as a D-Lineman with the 2nd pick is very high as where picking a secondary player isn't as high. In my opinion D-Line is what we need the most, but we CANNOT afford to whiff with this pick. I feel we should pick the player who is fairly sure to be very good and then devote all our other picks to defensive line.

And although i understand your point the problem is for Denver is that they RARELY have the opportunity to draft as high as they are. So while the risk is higher for a Dlineman the reward is MUCH greater as well.


My main thing is that I could argue that any 3 of the top D-Lineman could be busts. I don't see bust at all in Peterson.

And thats probably where we would disagree. I dont even have to go that far back in his career to point to where he was non-existent against Texas A&M whereas Fairley was still a factor in the championship game against Oregon. The problem with taking Peterson is that we have already shown that having a great corner doesnt solve the problem. We have already shown in the past that taking guys like Jarvis Moss (who was predicted to be good) later in the round doesnt pay off. Sure, the top 3 guys could easily be busts but so could Peterson. Its all a risk no matter how you slice it but if we take Peteson and the defense still sucks than it was a wasted pick when we had a grand opportunity to get who i think is a sure player in Fairley. Its just a matter of opinion in the end, there is no factual or guarantee with ANY player when it comes to the NFL.

Northman
01-21-2011, 02:37 AM
@Cuzz,

Yea, i saw 3 more DB's but also saw 3 more Dlineman that went to SB's as well. It still favors the Dlineman opposed to DB's when it comes to SB appearances.

cuzz4169
01-21-2011, 02:40 AM
@Cuzz,

Yea, i saw 3 more DB's but also saw 3 more Dlineman that went to SB's as well. It still favors the Dlineman opposed to DB's when it comes to SB appearances.

wasn't trying to shoot at ya...just saying there was a few more SB players at DB. :beer:

SB D-lineman...Anthony McFarland, Richard Seymour, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Jevon Kearse, Ty Warren, Terrell Suggs, Tommie Harris, Sedrick Ellis

SB D-backs...Chris Mcallister, Marcus Trufant, Troy Polamalu, Antrel Rolle, Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie.

Did I miss any? thats off my head.

Montana Battlin Bear
01-21-2011, 02:40 AM
The other three are Rodgers-Cromartie, Malcom Jenkins, and Antrell Rolle.

Thanks for reading my post Northman, and thank you for sharing your opinion of the situation. I know that if we select Peterson, Fairley, or Bowers I will be pumped on draft day. I just hope to god we don't mess this pick up.

Who do you see us targeting in free agency?
I think we'll get a few guys from Carolina, hopefully a Tight End and maybe a safety.

horsepig
01-21-2011, 02:54 AM
I agree with this, but are we in agreement that this team will take more than one draft to fix the defense? All I am showing is that the chance of us picking a bust as a D-Lineman with the 2nd pick is very high as where picking a secondary player isn't as high. In my opinion D-Line is what we need the most, but we CANNOT afford to whiff with this pick. I feel we should pick the player who is fairly sure to be very good and then devote all our other picks to defensive line.

It seems like picking a Lineman in the 3rd round has had as much success as picking a lineman in the top 5.

My main thing is that I could argue that any 3 of the top D-Lineman could be busts. I don't see bust at all in Peterson.

Good Lord MBB, wouldn't you like to see another Atwater/Bailey type on the secondary? I would, those guys don't just fall from the sky either.

Northman
01-21-2011, 02:57 AM
wasn't trying to shoot at ya...just saying there was a few more SB players at DB. :beer:

SB D-lineman...Anthony McFarland, Richard Seymour, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Jevon Kearse, Ty Warren, Terrell Suggs, Tommie Harris, Sedrick Ellis

SB D-backs...Chris Mcallister, Marcus Trufant, Troy Polamalu, Antrel Rolle, Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie.

Did I miss any? thats off my head.

Looks about right although i missed Warren.

Northman
01-21-2011, 02:59 AM
The other three are Rodgers-Cromartie, Malcom Jenkins, and Antrell Rolle.

Thanks for reading my post Northman, and thank you for sharing your opinion of the situation. I know that if we select Peterson, Fairley, or Bowers I will be pumped on draft day. I just hope to god we don't mess this pick up.

Who do you see us targeting in free agency?
I think we'll get a few guys from Carolina, hopefully a Tight End and maybe a safety.

To be honest, no idea. When it comes to FA in the last decade we've always seemed to pass up players that i like or i think can help the team. Im just not sure what Fox and John will do in that regard so its still a bit of a new beginning in that aspect. I know DeAngelo's name has been thrown around coming from Carolina but its really all speculation at this point.

cuzz4169
01-21-2011, 03:03 AM
The other three are Rodgers-Cromartie, Malcom Jenkins, and Antrell Rolle.

Thanks for reading my post Northman, and thank you for sharing your opinion of the situation. I know that if we select Peterson, Fairley, or Bowers I will be pumped on draft day. I just hope to god we don't mess this pick up.

Who do you see us targeting in free agency?
I think we'll get a few guys from Carolina, hopefully a Tight End and maybe a safety.

Not a TE or Safety from Carolina worth signing. The TE I like is Bo Scaife receiving TE and should be fairly cheap, would LOVE to pick up Zach Miller from faiders!!!..Also Why not take a look at the kid from ND in the draft...He has Jeremy Shockey skills. Safety i like these FAs, Quintin Mikell, Eric Weddle, Tanard Jackson...would like to look at Will Hill in the draft...I think he could be a steal in the 4th or 5th rd.

horsepig
01-21-2011, 03:07 AM
I'd go with Fairley, but he won't be there.

dogfish
01-21-2011, 03:12 AM
so you're saying draft fairley if he's there, and bust our ass trying to trade down if he's not?



good call, i agree. . .

:D

cuzz4169
01-21-2011, 03:13 AM
I'd go with Fairley, but he won't be there.

Its really to early to tell Bowers could blow up at combine same with Blaine Gabbert or Patrick Peterson....My sleeper #1 overall pick is A.J. Green...Carolina needs a playmaker and I think he's by far the best Offensive player in draft. All depends on if they give Jimmy Clausen a shot or go get a FA QB.

cuzz4169
01-21-2011, 03:17 AM
Question is if Fairley goes #1 do we trade back or take Peterson or bowers? If we go 4-3 do you believe Bowers will be better than Ayers at DE? A guy we just took in the first round. I would take Peterson...trading back is cool but I don't see the impact player like Peterson in trading back....Again you never know a team who really likes someone may offer a deal that can't be turned down.

horsepig
01-21-2011, 03:17 AM
TE's are out there, if you just look, why didn't the Broncos even give Kerry Sporey a look?

dogfish
01-21-2011, 03:19 AM
Its really to early to tell Bowers could blow up at combine same with Blaine Gabbert or Patrick Peterson....My sleeper #1 overall pick is A.J. Green...Carolina needs a playmaker and I think he's by far the best Offensive player in draft. All depends on if they give Jimmy Clausen a shot or go get a FA.

green really does make sense for them-- especially if steve smith bolts, which i think he will-- but IMO it might depend on how much influence rivera gets over the draft. . . i doubt he'd pass on fairley for a wide receiver-- marty hurney might, though. . .

also, unless they get to singin' a CBA real soon, no one is going to have a chance to sign any free agents before the draft. . . looks like it might be backwards this year. . .

Northman
01-21-2011, 03:19 AM
Its really to early to tell Bowers could blow up at combine same with Blaine Gabbert or Patrick Peterson....My sleeper #1 overall pick is A.J. Green...Carolina needs a playmaker and I think he's by far the best Offensive player in draft. All depends on if they give Jimmy Clausen a shot or go get a FA QB.

Yea, ive seen some recent mocks who have Carolina taking Green but they do need help in a lot of areas including defense so its still up in the air im sure.

horsepig
01-21-2011, 03:21 AM
The way it looks right now, I'd take Peterson and go ****** hog crazy for DL/LBs the rst of the draft. Pick up a guy like Stewart in FA and any LB?DL guys out there.

dogfish
01-21-2011, 03:23 AM
TE's are out there, if you just look, why didn't the Broncos even give Kerry Sporey a look?

whenever free agency happens, there are a bunch of good TEs scheduled to hit the market. . . inevitably not all of them will, but there will be good options available. . . we need to dump graham's overpaid ass at that point, and get a younger, more versatile player. . .

meaning one who can catch the ball once in a while. . .

marcedes lewis, kevin boss, zach miller, bo scaife, and possibly kellen winslow IIRC-- maybe a few more. . .

i wouldn't spend more than a low draft pick there this year, if at all. . .

horsepig
01-21-2011, 03:27 AM
You are right on about the negotiations, they will go down to the last ****** second. FA is a total wild card at this point. BTW, if they cannnot reach an agreement and postpone the start of the season, or cancel it all together, I am done. I will not watch these overpaid brats fight it out with the even more spoiled brat owners over who gets more millions while I work my ass off just to put dinner on the table. It's just gone too far, IMHO.

horsepig
01-21-2011, 03:40 AM
Sorry, I kind of lost it for a bit there. I'll always watch the damned Broncos like they are my long lost illegitimate son. Haahaa. That's kind of what they are to a lot of us-part of the family!

BTW' I like Peterson because I'll never forget Atwater's interception on his first series as a Bronco. Louie Wright was a sensation because Ralston used a high 1'st round pick on a corner, man, I'll tell ya from experience watching him play at MileHii, Louie was one of the best ever. The Orange Crush defense would have never happened w/o Louie as a "shutdown" corner along with Billy Thompson at safety.

Ask TJ about those two guys.

I only mean to say that I agree with MMB that it would ****** suck sooooo baaad to draft another shitbag loser DL when Peterson looks like the real deal. We'vew got lot's of other high picks and FA, if it happens to help the front seven. But, one is worthless without the other.

gobroncsnv
01-21-2011, 08:12 AM
Well, as always, I think a great d begins up front. If you make a great DB have to cover while the passer has time to do his nails, you have wasted your pick. We also are really bad at stuffing the run. This is a no brainer to me, we gotta go dline.

Juriga72
01-21-2011, 08:27 AM
I would rather re-work a vet in here at D-line.... Look at what Peppers did to Chicago's Defense... ONE guy and they are top 5 again. They have terrible corners, but the Qb's dont have time to throw..... KEY here is "Time to throw".

Build D-line first thru draft/FA..... The rest takes care of itself.

Northman
01-21-2011, 02:03 PM
Sorry, I kind of lost it for a bit there. I'll always watch the damned Broncos like they are my long lost illegitimate son. Haahaa. That's kind of what they are to a lot of us-part of the family!

BTW' I like Peterson because I'll never forget Atwater's interception on his first series as a Bronco. Louie Wright was a sensation because Ralston used a high 1'st round pick on a corner, man, I'll tell ya from experience watching him play at MileHii, Louie was one of the best ever. The Orange Crush defense would have never happened w/o Louie as a "shutdown" corner along with Billy Thompson at safety.

Ask TJ about those two guys.

I only mean to say that I agree with MMB that it would ****** suck sooooo baaad to draft another shitbag loser DL when Peterson looks like the real deal. We'vew got lot's of other high picks and FA, if it happens to help the front seven. But, one is worthless without the other.

Agreed, taking Peterson would be worthless since it hasnt worked with Bailey. Take a sure thing like Fairley and we are moving in the right direction. :beer:

Lonestar
01-21-2011, 02:35 PM
Well, as always, I think a great d begins up front. If you make a great DB have to cover while the passer has time to do his nails, you have wasted your pick. We also are really bad at stuffing the run. This is a no brainer to me, we gotta go dline.

We have had some good to great db's over the years.

But without pressure on the QB or be able to stop the run they do no good.

You win and lose games at the LOS period. Look at the teams in the playoffs right now.

That is where we have to go. Front 7 wins the war.
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NorCalBronco7
01-21-2011, 02:43 PM
For The last Ten Drafts In The Top 15.

I will mention what number they were selected and give my opinion on if bust or not.

D-Line---

1999-
15. Anthony McFarland-Average to a little above average DT
16. Jevon Kearse- Stud

2000
1. Courtney Brown- could have been 'alright' not in the league anymore.
6. Corey Simon- 1 Pro Bowl, retired in 2007
13. Shaun Ellis- Very good selection
14. John Abraham- Another Very good selection

2001
3. Gerard Warren--...bust
4. Justin Smith- solid player
6. Richard Seymour- very good selection
7. Andre Carter- has revamped his career in Washington
10. Jamal Reynolds- bust
12. Damione Lewis- average
13. Marcus Stroud- 3x pro bowl selection

2002
2. Julius Peppers- Beast
6. Ryan Sims- Bust
9. John Henderson- 2x pro bowl selection, hasn't done anything lately
11. Dwight Freeney- Stud
12. Wendell Bryant- Currently playing in the UFL
15. Albert Haynesworth- very talented, cancer for any team

2003
4. Dewayne Robertson- worked out great for us
6. Johnathan Sullivan- bust
9. Kevin Williams- stud
10 Terrell Suggs- beast, decided to put him in as a DE/OLB
12. Jimmy Kennedy- bust
13. Ty Warren- Solid player
14. Michael Haynes- bust
15. Jerome McDougle- bust

2004-
14. Tommie Harris- Pro Bowler

2005-
11. Demarcus Ware- Stud OLB/DE
16. Travis Johnson- Bust

2006-
1. Mario Williams- Pro Bowl Player
12. Haloti Ngata- Beast
13. Kamerion Wimbley- had a good season with the raiders
14. Brodrick Bunkley- average

2007-
4. Gaines Adams- situational pass rusher
8. Jamaal Anderson- bust
10. Amobi Okoye- average player
13. Adam Carriker- started every game this last year, average
16. Justin Harrel- bust

2008-
2. Chris Long- above average DE
5. Glenn Dorsey- did okay this last year
6. Vernon Gholston- bust
7. Sedrick Ellis- had a very good year this year, above average
8. Derrick Harvey- had 12 tackles and 2.5 sacks this year, below average.

2009-
3. Tyson Jackson- ask chiefs fans haha
9. B.J. Raji- very good selection
11. Aaron Maybin- too early but bills consider him a disappointment
13. Brian Orakpo- good pass rusher, pro bowler
16. Larry English- Too early, average

2010-
2. Ndamukong Suh- Beast
3. Gerald McCoy- looked pretty good his rookie year
10. Tyson Alualu- named to the all rookie team, looks solid
13. Brandon Graham-started 6 games, with 3 sacks.
15. Jason Pierre-Paul- 30 tackles, 4.5 sacks, behind Tuck and Umenyiora.
16. Derrick Morgan- average, too early too tell

In My own opinion with picking a D-Lineman in the top half of the First round gives you a 34.5% chance of getting an above average player.

Now On To Secondary

1999
7. Champ Bailey- Arguably best ever.
10. Chris Mcallister- 3x pro bowl selection

2000
15. Deltha O'Neal- Average

2001
NONE

2002
5. Quentin Jammer- Average to above average Corner
8. Roy Williams- 5x Pro Bowl Selection

2003
5. Terrence Newman- 2x Pro Bowl Selection
11. Marcus Trufant- 1 Pro Bowl Selection, Above Average
16. Troy Polamalu- Arguably Best Safety in the League

2004-
5. Sean Taylor- 2x pro bowl selection, all pro
8. Deangelo Hall- Pro Bowler
10. Dunta Robinson- Above average CB

2005-
6. Adam Jones- talented, but retarded
8. Antrel Rolle- Pro Bowler
9. Carlos Rogers- Above Average CB

2006-
7. Michael Huff-bust
8. Donte Whitner- had a good 2010, below average
15. Tye Hill- bust
16. Jason Allen- six int's in 2010, above average

2007-
6. Laron Landry- Pro Bowler
14. Darrelle Revis- Beast

2008-
11. Leodis McKelvin- average
16. Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie- Pro Bowler

2009-
14. Malcom Jenkins- average to above average CB

2010-
5. Eric Berry- young, already a stud
7. Joe Haden- 6 ints, going to be dang good
14. Earl Thomas- average right now, tons of potential

In my Opinion out of the top half of the first round over the last eleven years 70% of the secondary players taken are above average-all pro's this is my own findings and you guys can talk about it and come up with your own assessment of each player.

Now I'm not saying that we should select Peterson with the pick but look at the D-Lineman taken in the top 5 in the last eleven years 5 out of a total of 12 have amounted to something. That is a horrible percentage for top 5 picks. Look at the success that top picks in the secondary have. its over twice the percentage.


Discuss

:mad:


Defensive line bust more, sure. But........ they have a much bigger impact on games than corners.

I cant see any other intention of this thread other than to somehow justify taking a CB at #2. Thats a tremendously idiotic idea. Theres numerous reasons CBs dont get drafted in the top 5-10......

G_Money
01-21-2011, 03:55 PM
In my Opinion out of the top half of the first round over the last eleven years 70% of the secondary players taken are above average-all pro's this is my own findings and you guys can talk about it and come up with your own assessment of each player.

Now I'm not saying that we should select Peterson with the pick but look at the D-Lineman taken in the top 5 in the last eleven years 5 out of a total of 12 have amounted to something. That is a horrible percentage for top 5 picks. Look at the success that top picks in the secondary have. its over twice the percentage.

The problem isn't whether the first-round DL bust-rate is higher than at CB. It is. It absolutely is. Last I heard the two highest bust rates are DL and QB, and I believe DL is in the lead.

The problem is, what great DL can you get after the first part of the draft?


2010 Pro Bowl Defensive Linemen:
Freeney: 11th pick, 1st round
Mathis: 5th round
Mario Williams: 1st pick, 1st round
Vanden Bosch: 2nd pick, 2nd round
Ellis: 12th pick, 1st round
Ngata: 12th pick, 1st round
Wilfork: 21st pick, 1st round
Hampton: 19th pick, 1st round
Peppers: 2nd pick, 1st round
Cole: 5th round
Allen: 4th round
Dockett: 3rd round
Williams: 9th pick, 1st round
Ratliff: 7th round
Smith: 4th pick, 1st round

9 of 15 drafted in the first round.

Vanden Bosch was in the 2nd by a couple of picks.

Finding Mathis in the 7th is like finding Nalen in the 7th - it happens, but try not to build your drafting philosophy around it.

Cole is a good player who fell because he was a tweener and who worked out for an aggressive defense.

Ditto Jaren Allen.

Ratliff is an anomaly at his position, almost a singularity.

*shrugs* I don't mind taking later DL and hoping they work out as well as drafting em high, but with the defensive line you have to pay to play.

It has the high bust rate, but odds are against you ever finding a Pro Bowl DL player outside of the first round. If you need studs and not filler, better pony up.

Problem is, MOST pro-bowlers are first-round picks, at ANY position. Which is why it hurts to have gone Moreno/Ayers/Phonz/Tebow/Thomas with 5 first rounders in 2 years.

We needed a few more pro-bowlers out of those selections than I expect to get.

~G

bcbronc
01-21-2011, 04:34 PM
Agreed, taking Peterson would be worthless since it hasnt worked with Bailey. Take a sure thing like Fairley and we are moving in the right direction. :beer:

1.We've had Bailey, but we've never had a dou comparable to Bailey AND Peterson. That duo allows you to blitz safeties vs pass and keep them in the box vs run.

2. Fairley might not be available.

3. Even if he is, he's no where near a "sure thing". I'd argue he fits the criteria of likely bust a lot more (one really good year, some attitude issues, playing on an over-all talented defence).

As to the point above that "cb's aren't takne often 5-10", um, just about every year at least 2 CBs are taken top 10, and Peterson comes in more highly ranked than most.
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Northman
01-21-2011, 05:01 PM
1.We've had Bailey, but we've never had a dou comparable to Bailey AND Peterson. That duo allows you to blitz safeties vs pass and keep them in the box vs run.

Uh totally incorrect. Dre Bly was one of the better DB's out there when we grabbed him. He was more a risk taker than Bailey but he was a very good DB for the Rams and for a while with Denver. The fact that he got burnt by guys like Favre only proves that we were unable to get pressure from the front. There is no such thing as a DB who can spend all day on an island by himself even for guys like Revis. Without the front seven Revis would be nothing more than average.


2. Fairley might not be available.

If he's not, either take Bowers or trade back and try and get Dareus both which are fine to me. But those 3 are far better than whats available later in the draft.


3. Even if he is, he's no where near a "sure thing". I'd argue he fits the criteria of likely bust a lot more (one really good year, some attitude issues, playing on an over-all talented defence).




Suh has attitude issues and yet did very well for Detroit so that issue doesnt deter me from Fairley's talent level. As for the talented defense your insane, throughout the year Auburn's defense gave up a LOT of TD's and yardage yet through all that Fairley still led the conference in sacks and tackles.

HORSEPOWER 56
01-21-2011, 05:19 PM
Games are won and lost in the trenches. It's not just a cliche or a wives' tale, it's straight up football fact. The better your pass rush is, the better your secondary looks. It rarely works the other way around. If it did, how come a Raiders defense with both Asomugha and Hall (two very good CBs) got their asses handed to them routinely?

If you could convince me that if we drafted Peterson at #2 and we decided to play him at SAFETY where he could potentially be a real factor (instead of just "shutting down" one guy on the offense if he even can) and you could somehow make me believe he'd be a game changer like Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu and there was a good selection of FA D-linemen to pursue, I'd be totally cool with taking Peterson.

But, all drafting Peterson will do, IMO, is absolutely ENSURE that Champ Bailey isn't coming back and we'll, best case, replace what we already have (a top CB) with just another top CB that can't, by himself, pull this defense out of the basement.

It's silly to even bring up STs as a possibility for a guy you're going to pend the #2 overall pick on. Remember when Shanny got all stupid with Champ and tried lining him up other places on offense and even returning punts? Yeah, then he realized how retarded that was because how stupid would it be seeing Champ get injured playing offense or STs when he's the best CB in the league...

There's a reason that top players don't usually return kicks once they get to the pros and most STer's are 3rd stringers. If we drafted Peterson at #2 overall and he didn't start right away he'd probably return kicks, but as a starter, we'd probably look to replace him ASAP. Why risk the #2 overall pick returning kicks (that's what McDaniels did with Thomas... good thing we didn't need him).

LSIGRAD09
01-21-2011, 06:40 PM
We need defensive line studs, and to fix that front 7. We have a good secondary, but we can't do much without a good pass rush. The Secondary certainly doesn't want to see a RB in the secondary every time they run the ball.
I say Fairley or Bowers. We have some depth at the CB position, but with Champ's status up in the air, as well as Cox's problems, it wouldn't be crazy to draft somebody like Peterson.

Still, the trenches should be the top priority, but that's why I don't make the :D decisions.

rcsodak
01-21-2011, 10:50 PM
For The last Ten Drafts In The Top 15.

I will mention what number they were selected and give my opinion on if bust or not.

D-Line---

1999-
15. Anthony McFarland-Average to a little above average DT
16. Jevon Kearse- Stud

2000
1. Courtney Brown- could have been 'alright' not in the league anymore.
6. Corey Simon- 1 Pro Bowl, retired in 2007
13. Shaun Ellis- Very good selection
14. John Abraham- Another Very good selection

2001
3. Gerard Warren--...bust
4. Justin Smith- solid player
6. Richard Seymour- very good selection
7. Andre Carter- has revamped his career in Washington
10. Jamal Reynolds- bust
12. Damione Lewis- average
13. Marcus Stroud- 3x pro bowl selection

2002
2. Julius Peppers- Beast
6. Ryan Sims- Bust
9. John Henderson- 2x pro bowl selection, hasn't done anything lately
11. Dwight Freeney- Stud
12. Wendell Bryant- Currently playing in the UFL
15. Albert Haynesworth- very talented, cancer for any team

2003
4. Dewayne Robertson- worked out great for us
6. Johnathan Sullivan- bust
9. Kevin Williams- stud
10 Terrell Suggs- beast, decided to put him in as a DE/OLB
12. Jimmy Kennedy- bust
13. Ty Warren- Solid player
14. Michael Haynes- bust
15. Jerome McDougle- bust

2004-
14. Tommie Harris- Pro Bowler

2005-
11. Demarcus Ware- Stud OLB/DE
16. Travis Johnson- Bust

2006-
1. Mario Williams- Pro Bowl Player
12. Haloti Ngata- Beast
13. Kamerion Wimbley- had a good season with the raiders
14. Brodrick Bunkley- average

2007-
4. Gaines Adams- situational pass rusher
8. Jamaal Anderson- bust
10. Amobi Okoye- average player
13. Adam Carriker- started every game this last year, average
16. Justin Harrel- bust

2008-
2. Chris Long- above average DE
5. Glenn Dorsey- did okay this last year
6. Vernon Gholston- bust
7. Sedrick Ellis- had a very good year this year, above average
8. Derrick Harvey- had 12 tackles and 2.5 sacks this year, below average.

2009-
3. Tyson Jackson- ask chiefs fans haha
9. B.J. Raji- very good selection
11. Aaron Maybin- too early but bills consider him a disappointment
13. Brian Orakpo- good pass rusher, pro bowler
16. Larry English- Too early, average

2010-
2. Ndamukong Suh- Beast
3. Gerald McCoy- looked pretty good his rookie year
10. Tyson Alualu- named to the all rookie team, looks solid
13. Brandon Graham-started 6 games, with 3 sacks.
15. Jason Pierre-Paul- 30 tackles, 4.5 sacks, behind Tuck and Umenyiora.
16. Derrick Morgan- average, too early too tell

In My own opinion with picking a D-Lineman in the top half of the First round gives you a 34.5% chance of getting an above average player.

Now On To Secondary

1999
7. Champ Bailey- Arguably best ever.
10. Chris Mcallister- 3x pro bowl selection

2000
15. Deltha O'Neal- Average

2001
NONE

2002
5. Quentin Jammer- Average to above average Corner
8. Roy Williams- 5x Pro Bowl Selection

2003
5. Terrence Newman- 2x Pro Bowl Selection
11. Marcus Trufant- 1 Pro Bowl Selection, Above Average
16. Troy Polamalu- Arguably Best Safety in the League

2004-
5. Sean Taylor- 2x pro bowl selection, all pro
8. Deangelo Hall- Pro Bowler
10. Dunta Robinson- Above average CB

2005-
6. Adam Jones- talented, but retarded
8. Antrel Rolle- Pro Bowler
9. Carlos Rogers- Above Average CB

2006-
7. Michael Huff-bust
8. Donte Whitner- had a good 2010, below average
15. Tye Hill- bust
16. Jason Allen- six int's in 2010, above average

2007-
6. Laron Landry- Pro Bowler
14. Darrelle Revis- Beast

2008-
11. Leodis McKelvin- average
16. Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie- Pro Bowler

2009-
14. Malcom Jenkins- average to above average CB

2010-
5. Eric Berry- young, already a stud
7. Joe Haden- 6 ints, going to be dang good
14. Earl Thomas- average right now, tons of potential

In my Opinion out of the top half of the first round over the last eleven years 70% of the secondary players taken are above average-all pro's this is my own findings and you guys can talk about it and come up with your own assessment of each player.

Now I'm not saying that we should select Peterson with the pick but look at the D-Lineman taken in the top 5 in the last eleven years 5 out of a total of 12 have amounted to something. That is a horrible percentage for top 5 picks. Look at the success that top picks in the secondary have. its over twice the percentage.


Discuss

I see 2x as many Dl vs secondary. Plus, the avg number picked by the secondary was almost 10th, with none of them any higher than 5th. That leaves much more room for error versus DL being all over the board, with MANY at the beginning of the draft (7 in top 3).
Add to that the fact that many DL don't get the stats that cb/s get. NT's/DT's are there to clog the line for everybody else to claim the fame. They rely as much on the guys next to them to being decent as themselves *see trevor pryce*.

As far as your point goes, a secondary player is only as good as his DL is *see champ*. That alone should prove that you start up front with as much talent as possible.

rcsodak
01-21-2011, 10:58 PM
Pretty good research on your part however, without going and looking at the respective teams for each player i can at least count 5 of those Dlineman who have been to the Super Bowl compared to only 1 Secondary player (Troy P) who has been on a SB team.

Since when does participating in a SB, for a position player, have anything to do with a player's worth?

So champ is cat food? Rivers? Tomlinson? AD? I'll stop, since I think I've made my point.

Sorry, but that was a ridiculous statement, north....even for you. :laugh:

rcsodak
01-21-2011, 11:03 PM
Its really to early to tell Bowers could blow up at combine same with Blaine Gabbert or Patrick Peterson....My sleeper #1 overall pick is A.J. Green...Carolina needs a playmaker and I think he's by far the best Offensive player in draft. All depends on if they give Jimmy Clausen a shot or go get a FA QB.

Where did Carolina suck this year?

They couldn't score points!!!!!!

I'm not so sure they're going defense, which leaves a wide array of choices for Elway & Co.

rcsodak
01-21-2011, 11:18 PM
Sorry, I kind of lost it for a bit there. I'll always watch the damned Broncos like they are my long lost illegitimate son. Haahaa. That's kind of what they are to a lot of us-part of the family!

BTW' I like Peterson because I'll never forget Atwater's interception on his first series as a Bronco. Louie Wright was a sensation because Ralston used a high 1'st round pick on a corner, man, I'll tell ya from experience watching him play at MileHii, Louie was one of the best ever. The Orange Crush defense would have never happened w/o Louie as a "shutdown" corner along with Billy Thompson at safety.

Ask TJ about those two guys.

I only mean to say that I agree with MMB that it would ****** suck sooooo baaad to draft another shitbag loser DL when Peterson looks like the real deal. We'vew got lot's of other high picks and FA, if it happens to help the front seven. But, one is worthless without the other.

Sorry, but there's a reason cb's aren't taken early. It would be tantamount to picking a TE......a waste.

rcsodak
01-21-2011, 11:21 PM
I would rather re-work a vet in here at D-line.... Look at what Peppers did to Chicago's Defense... ONE guy and they are top 5 again. They have terrible corners, but the Qb's dont have time to throw..... KEY here is "Time to throw".

Build D-line first thru draft/FA..... The rest takes care of itself.

Thank you , Coach Shannahan.

:coffee:

bcbronc
01-22-2011, 12:56 AM
[QUOTE]Uh totally incorrect. Dre Bly was one of the better DB's out there when we grabbed him. He was more a risk taker than Bailey but he was a very good DB for the Rams and for a while with Denver. The fact that he got burnt by guys like Favre only proves that we were unable to get pressure from the front. There is no such thing as a DB who can spend all day on an island by himself even for guys like Revis. Without the front seven Revis would be nothing more than average.


don't get me wrong, I agree 100% that our DL is top priority. or at least top 7 and getting to the QB is.

but the flip side of your Revis point is that if you're corners can't shut down the five yard slant vs. top receivers, even the best DL won't consistently get to the QB. It's about balance, albeit a balance that tilts to the front 7.



If he's not, either take Bowers or trade back and try and get Dareus both which are fine to me. But those 3 are far better than whats available later in the draft.

the one thing that trumps our DL need is that #2 HAS to be a playmaker. I'm talking a 3+ time pro bowler type playmaker. gettiing a DL version of DJ isn't good enough at #2.

If Peterson was to be the choice at #2, I'd want both 2nds used on the DL. If DL is taken at #2, I want one of the 2nds used on a S or CB. Whichever combination gives us the best bet at scoring some difference makers I'm on board with.



Suh has attitude issues and yet did very well for Detroit so that issue doesnt deter me from Fairley's talent level. As for the talented defense your insane, throughout the year Auburn's defense gave up a LOT of TD's and yardage yet through all that Fairley still led the conference in sacks and tackles.


okay, but he's still not any where near a sure thing. I'm not saying he will bust, but looking at the recent history of top 5 DTs, the stats suggest a better chance of the next Gerard Warren than Suh. maybe, maybe not, but sure things on the DL are few and far between.

we can't bust this pick. I don't want another one.

sneakers
01-22-2011, 06:42 AM
I still think it is worth a shot drafting d-line player....because a good pass rush can make an average secondary look excellent.

gobroncsnv
01-22-2011, 11:16 AM
but the flip side of your Revis point is that if you're corners can't shut down the five yard slant vs. top receivers, even the best DL won't consistently get to the QB.


I can't think of a team that is better at a short passing route than NE... can you name either of the Giants CB's who beat them a couple years back in the SB? The Giant's won that game and beat the league's pretty much all-time leader in team offense with a GREAT pass rush.
(Can't say enough about how great Brady looks when his uni is covered in grass stains.)

jhildebrand
01-22-2011, 01:40 PM
At the end of the day, DB's don't matter, even if you have two of the very best, if the QB has five plus seconds average to throw!

We have had Champ for how long and just exactly what was he able to do alone? :confused: Not much.

Get a solid D line and a physical safety this draft!

Northman
01-22-2011, 01:53 PM
[QUOTE=Northman;1197331]

don't get me wrong, I agree 100% that our DL is top priority. or at least top 7 and getting to the QB is.

but the flip side of your Revis point is that if you're corners can't shut down the five yard slant vs. top receivers, even the best DL won't consistently get to the QB. It's about balance, albeit a balance that tilts to the front 7.




the one thing that trumps our DL need is that #2 HAS to be a playmaker. I'm talking a 3+ time pro bowler type playmaker. gettiing a DL version of DJ isn't good enough at #2.

If Peterson was to be the choice at #2, I'd want both 2nds used on the DL. If DL is taken at #2, I want one of the 2nds used on a S or CB. Whichever combination gives us the best bet at scoring some difference makers I'm on board with.




okay, but he's still not any where near a sure thing. I'm not saying he will bust, but looking at the recent history of top 5 DTs, the stats suggest a better chance of the next Gerard Warren than Suh. maybe, maybe not, but sure things on the DL are few and far between.

we can't bust this pick. I don't want another one.


All fine arguements but going by your last comment what if Peterson sucks? Either way you look at it if we miss wiff on that #2 pick that will set us back a long time. The only difference here is i believe Fairley is a sure thing and you believe Peterson to be one. But the reality is we both could be wrong.

Lonestar
01-22-2011, 04:04 PM
I still think it is worth a shot drafting d-line player....because a good pass rush can make an average secondary look excellent.

Good post..:salute::salute:

Actually being able to stop the running game makes one hell of a lot of sense and difference also.

Lonestar
01-22-2011, 04:08 PM
At the end of the day, DB's don't matter, even if you have two of the very best, if the QB has five plus seconds average to throw!

We have had Champ for how long and just exactly what was he able to do alone? :confused: Not much.

Get a solid D line and a physical safety this draft!

Great post :salute::salute:

have been waiting for " a solid D line and a physical safety" since Atwater left to BAL..

Someone else said in the thread that even if we get a stud pass rush and not quality CB's that Qb's will hit quick slants.

They have been doing that on us for nigh on a decade now anyway lots of times under the watchful eye of Champ one of the BEST CB's ever to play thae game.

NameUsedBefore
01-22-2011, 05:06 PM
If we pick at #2 I think we have to take Peterson. He is, by far, the best value for the pick. I think the best option would be if someone wants to jump to our position to outgun another team for the QB flavor of the month (we'll see who that is post-combine) and we can grab a DE/DT at 5, 6, 7 etc.

Slick
01-22-2011, 05:22 PM
If we pick at #2 I think we have to take Peterson. He is, by far, the best value for the pick. I think the best option would be if someone wants to jump to our position to outgun another team for the QB flavor of the month (we'll see who that is post-combine) and we can grab a DE/DT at 5, 6, 7 etc.

EfGgorajsro&feature=related

Northman
01-22-2011, 06:34 PM
EfGgorajsro&feature=related


:lol:

hamrob
01-22-2011, 08:03 PM
Defensive Backs are rarely ever taken in the top-5. In fact since 1999 (your research), only two DB's have gone top-5 (both at #5)...Terrence Newman and Sean Taylor.

Now...when thinking about DB's in general...only a handful are true difference makers:

Woodson
Reed
Bailey
Revis
Sanders
Palumalu

Can anyone name a DB that went top-2....how about in the history of the NFL...any that went top-2? If so, when? [Eric Turner #2 in 1993]

DB's are not worth top-5 picks. They're simply not big enough payoffs to before the risk!

Lonestar
01-22-2011, 09:14 PM
Defensive Backs are rarely ever taken in the top-5. In fact since 1999 (your research), only two DB's have gone top-5 (both at #5)...Terrence Newman and Sean Taylor.

Now...when thinking about DB's in general...only a handful are true difference makers:

Woodson
Reed
Bailey
Revis
Sanders
Palumalu

Can anyone name a DB that went top-2....how about in the history of the NFL...any that went top-2? If so, when? [Eric Turner #2 in 1993]

DB's are not worth top-5 picks. They're simply not big enough payoffs to before the risk!
good post as normal :salute::salute:

But But But he is so great he can't miss.. :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

Any choice at that point is is a risk, hell he could be the greatest player in the world and die on the stage after being drafted. Nothing is a sure thing..