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TXBRONC
01-04-2011, 09:17 AM
I thought ya'll might find this interesting.


Broncos Mailbag: Luck of draw in Denver's cards come draft?
Plains' Bob willing to fold "Tebow project" for chance at Cardinal QB
By Mike Klis
The Denver Post

Posted: 01/04/2011 01:00:00 AM MST
Updated: 01/04/2011 01:03:05 AM MST

Hi, Mike. Assuming (and we know where that gets you) that Andrew Luck makes himself eligible and is available when Denver picks in the 2011 draft, does Denver pull the trigger on him? I am fully on board with the Tim Tebow project, but Luck is being talked about as a can't-miss prospect. If Denver passes on him, it could be like Portland passing on Michael Jordan.
-- Bob, Dusty High Plains

Bob - You know who first passed on Michael Jordan? The Houston Rockets. It always bothered me that Portland received all the heat for passing on Jordan when it made more sense for the Rockets to take him at No. 1.

The Rockets already had a 7-footer in Ralph Sampson. Yet, they took Hakeem Olajuwon, another big man, instead of Jordan. Two, 7-footers. The Trail Blazers already had Clyde Drexler, who was one of the NBA's best 2 guards. It made sense for them to take the big man Sam Bowie.

Sure, it turned out that Sampson was a bust, Bowie was a bust and Olajuwon was a top 20 player of all-time, having led the Rockets to two NBA titles during the Missing Jordan years. That doesn't change the fact that at the time, it made more sense for Portland to take a big man than Houston.

Anyway, Luck and Tebow. I don't think there's any way the Broncos get Luck because they have the No. 2 draft choice, not No. 1. I don't think Carolina swaps places with the Broncos. The word is Luck will stay in school, but if his coach Jim Harbaugh leaves for the University of Michigan or the NFL, no one should be surprised if the quarterback bolts.

If Harbaugh winds up with the Broncos? Then Broncos GM Brian Xanders may well be ordered to swing a deal with Carolina. Still, I don't see the Panthers accepting any amount of compensation if they have a chance to draft Luck.
There are so many ifs there that I don't see it all playing out so that both Harbaugh and Luck wind up in Denver.

http://www.denverpost.com/broncosmailbag/ci_17000076

OrangeHoof
01-04-2011, 11:24 AM
It's all a long shot, no doubt. But let's say the Broncos sign Harbaugh (doable) because Elway makes a hell of a sales pitch. And then let's say Luck comes out for the draft but makes clear he's not going to sign with the Panthers (like Elway said he wouldn't sign with the Colts) and the Broncos offer a package such as Tebow, this year's #2 overall and next year's #1 to trade places with the Panthers. Then the Broncos are in place to draft Luck.

If I'm the Panthers, I'm tempted. For moving down one spot in the draft, they're getting a QB who has now proved he won't be a total bust in the pros and might even be downright good some day and two high draft picks to start rebuilding the franchise.

Of course, the Panthers can trump all of this just by signing Harbaugh themselves. Then, there's no problem getting Luck to come out or to sign. If I'm Jerry Richardson, I'd seriously think about doing that.

chazoe60
01-04-2011, 11:30 AM
It's all a long shot, no doubt. But let's say the Broncos sign Harbaugh (doable) because Elway makes a hell of a sales pitch. And then let's say Luck comes out for the draft but makes clear he's not going to sign with the Panthers (like Elway said he wouldn't sign with the Colts) and the Broncos offer a package such as Tebow, this year's #2 overall and next year's #1 to trade places with the Panthers. Then the Broncos are in place to draft Luck.

If I'm the Panthers, I'm tempted. For moving down one spot in the draft, they're getting a QB who has now proved he won't be a total bust in the pros and might even be downright good some day and two high draft picks to start rebuilding the franchise.

Of course, the Panthers can trump all of this just by signing Harbaugh themselves. Then, there's no problem getting Luck to come out or to sign. If I'm Wayne Weaver, I'd seriously think about doing that.

And the Broncos would be left in the same situation we've been in for seemingly ever now: Horrible neglected defense, while the FO chases the ghost of John Elway.

I say we trade back a bit, stockpile picks, and bolster this defense as much as possible. Draft DJ Williams (TE Arkansas) for Tebow and tailor an offense to Tim's strengths.

We can not neglect this defense any further or we run the risk of becoming the Lions, Cardinals, Bengals, or the pre-2004 Chargers; a bottom dwelling team with no hope ever. Can't you people see this?

Ravage!!!
01-04-2011, 11:32 AM
How is it that the #2 over all pick defensive player is going to turn around a franchise? They won't. can't.

Teams do NOT move up to #2, its too expensive. Biggest impact of any team is at QB. The #2 defensive player can't turn around a franchise, and we would STILL have plenty of other picks to use on defense. We are not going to use every pick in the draft on defense, anyway.

chazoe60
01-04-2011, 11:36 AM
How is it that the #2 over all pick defensive player is going to turn around a franchise? They won't. can't.

Teams do NOT move up to #2, its too expensive. Biggest impact of any team is at QB. The #2 defensive player can't turn around a franchise, and we would STILL have plenty of other picks to use on defense. We are not going to use every pick in the draft on defense, anyway.

It wouldn't just be the #2 though. If we start trying to move up to #1 to get Luck you can bet your ass other teams will up the ante and moving that one spot will end up costing us a fortune. How many years now are we going to sit around and say well one draft pick won't turn this defense around anyway so lets just get this offensive guy and that offensive guy.

You have to start building a Defense somewhere and we might as well do it with the #2 pick or whatever we might be able to acquire via trade with that #2 pick.

Cugel
01-04-2011, 11:44 AM
All this is pretty academic if Luck decides to stay in school, isn't it!

He'd be completely insane to do that of course since he'd be forgoing possibly tens of millions of dollars. Right now he's the consensus #1 pick of the draft, no question. But, if he goes back to school and has a bad year, or even a mediocre year? What if he gets injured? How much would his draft status drop if he suffered a separated shoulder and couldn't throw during the spring workouts?

It's just monumentally stupid for him to stay in school when he could lose a HELL of a lot, but young kids ARE idiots about things like that and he might not care. He might want to "stay with the team" in hopes of winning a national championship next season (probably won't happen of course).

Another factor that might influence him is the lack of a CBA. His agent might convince him that with the uncertainty about the CBA and the fact that no rookie contracts will be tendered to any draft picks until there's a CBA in place, it would be better to wait in school and see how this all shakes out!

That could impact the decisions of a LOT of juniors to stay in school and would totally SCREW UP THE BRONCOS DRAFT CHANCES!

For instance, many of the top prospects the Broncos might consider are juniors now. What if they all decided to stay in school? The Broncos might wind up with a MUCH less good prospects! Next year of course, when all these kids come out and the draft is totally STOCKED with talent, they won't be drafting at #2 anymore (hopefully).

So, their ONE chance in the last 40 years to draft so high is partially ruined because of labor conflict? :mad:

Cugel
01-04-2011, 12:03 PM
It wouldn't just be the #2 though. If we start trying to move up to #1 to get Luck you can bet your ass other teams will up the ante and moving that one spot will end up costing us a fortune. How many years now are we going to sit around and say well one draft pick won't turn this defense around anyway so lets just get this offensive guy and that offensive guy.

You have to start building a Defense somewhere and we might as well do it with the #2 pick or whatever we might be able to acquire via trade with that #2 pick.

I'll say this again! NOBODY trades up to #2 to draft anything BUT a "franchise QB." That's why so FEW trades involving the top 5 draft picks have happened over the last 10 years. I can only remember 2 such trades (unless somebody else can point to any others).

The Giants trading their #4 pick plus a #1 next year (Phillip Rivers and Shawne Merriman it turned out) for San Diego's #1 (Eli Manning), and the the Jets trading up to #4 to draft Mark Sanchez.

I don't recall ANY team willing to trade up into the top 5 (nor any team willing to trade DOWN OUT of the top 5) for a defensive player -- it just costs too damn much in terms of giving up virtually your entire draft for one player.

And if the teams don't offer enough, the team with the draft pick feels like they're getting ripped off. So, teams just don't trade those picks much.

I could see a trade of Carolina's pick IF the Panthers decided they were willing -- but I seriously doubt it will happen. Probably, they will keep the pick and take Luck. If Luck opts to remain in school there's ZERO chance they will be able to trade that pick because nobody will want to move up that badly. The Broncos won't be able to get out of #2 unless somebody is that desperate for Cam Newton and thinks that the #3 team wants him.

And that team would have to be SERIOUSLY DESPERATE for them to pay what Denver would want for that pick! (AT least 2 #1's plus other picks and maybe a player or two -- and even that is questionable).

Think about the trade value: The #2 pick is worth 2600 points, but the #10 pick is only worth 1300 (half as much)!

The #20 pick is worth 850 points, while the #31 pick is only worth 590. If you are drafting in the late teens for instance, and have the #17 pick your #1 pick is worth 950, your #2 pick around 410 and your #3 pick around 185.

Add that up and you see that trading your top 3 picks only gets you to around 1500 points, less than 1/2 of what you'll need!

And this is only an AVERAGE team -- what if you are drafting later than #17? The problem only becomes WORSE. Few teams are desperate enough to trade multiple #1 picks, plus perhaps a #2 and a player all for ONE guy -- even if it is a franchise QB! :coffee:

The Giants trade with San Diego worked chiefly because the Giants had the #4 pick to offer PLUS the #1 next year (which turned out to be the 12th pick of the draft)! Most teams won't have that kind of ammo to offer! :coffee:

SOCALORADO.
01-04-2011, 12:09 PM
I'll say this again! NOBODY trades up to #2 to draft anything BUT a "franchise QB." That's why so FEW trades involving the top 5 draft picks have happened over the last 10 years. I can only remember 2 such trades (unless somebody else can point to any others).

The Giants trading their #4 pick plus a #1 next year (Phillip Rivers and Shawne Merriman it turned out) for San Diego's #1 (Eli Manning), and the the Jets trading up to #4 to draft Mark Sanchez.

I don't recall ANY team willing to trade up into the top 5 (nor any team willing to trade DOWN OUT of the top 5) for a defensive player -- it just costs too damn much in terms of giving up virtually your entire draft for one player.

And if the teams don't offer enough, the team with the draft pick feels like they're getting ripped off. So, teams just don't trade those picks much.

I could see a trade of Carolina's pick IF the Panthers decided they were willing -- but I seriously doubt it will happen. Probably, they will keep the pick and take Luck. If Luck opts to remain in school there's ZERO chance they will be able to trade that pick because nobody will want to move up that badly. The Broncos won't be able to get out of #2 unless somebody is that desperate for Cam Newton and thinks that the #3 team wants him.

And that team would have to be SERIOUSLY DESPERATE for them to pay what Denver would want for that pick! (AT least 2 #1's plus other picks and maybe a player or two -- and even that is questionable).

Think about the trade value: The #2 pick is worth 2600 points, but the #10 pick is only worth 1300 (half as much)!

The #20 pick is worth 850 points, while the #31 pick is only worth 590. If you are drafting in the late teens for instance, and have the #17 pick your #1 pick is worth 950, your #2 pick around 410 and your #3 pick around 185.

Add that up and you see that trading your top 3 picks only gets you to around 1500 points, less than 1/2 of what you'll need!

And this is only an AVERAGE team -- what if you are drafting later than #17? The problem only becomes WORSE. Few teams are desperate enough to trade multiple #1 picks, plus perhaps a #2 and a player all for ONE guy -- even if it is a franchise QB! :coffee:

The Giants trade with San Diego worked chiefly because the Giants had the #4 pick to offer PLUS the #1 next year (which turned out to be the 12th pick of the draft)! Most teams won't have that kind of ammo to offer! :coffee:

I am now hoping Elway has had a huge impact on both Harbaugh and Luck, and that a possible deal is in the works.
Just so i can watch Ravage absolutely go batshit crazy when it all falls through!!:D

zbeg
01-04-2011, 05:12 PM
How is it that the #2 over all pick defensive player is going to turn around a franchise? They won't. can't.


Unless there was someone regarded as a Lawrence Taylor-type player in this draft, which there isn't. (LT did go #2 overall IIRC) But I agree with you; the Broncos aren't getting Luck, and the Broncos are almost certainly staying put (whether it's due to lack of suitors or desire to stay at #2) and will take a defensive player.

...hopefully a defensive player.

shank
01-04-2011, 05:18 PM
Broncos offer a package such as Tebow, this year's #2 overall and next year's #1 to trade places with the Panthers. Then the Broncos are in place to draft Luck.

how in the name of sweet baby allah can this sound like a good deal to any broncos fan? the back of my eyes melt every time someone endorses the idea.

HORSEPOWER 56
01-04-2011, 07:34 PM
How is it that the #2 over all pick defensive player is going to turn around a franchise? They won't. can't.

Teams do NOT move up to #2, its too expensive. Biggest impact of any team is at QB. The #2 defensive player can't turn around a franchise, and we would STILL have plenty of other picks to use on defense. We are not going to use every pick in the draft on defense, anyway.

At a MINIMUM, moving from #2 to #1 will cost us a 2nd round pick. So, we make the trade, get Luck, and have now wasted TWO picks that should've been used on defense on a QB we don't really need.

I know you don't like Tebow, but you're smart enough to know that even with Luck at his best playing on the current team, we're still a sub .500 club. WE HAVE THE WORST DEFENSE IN OUR HISTORY! One of the worst defenses in NFL history! Wasting picks on more offensive players won't improve this team. Luck will throw up mad offensive stats and probably make pro-bowls, but we'll continue to lose games 33-28. It's just that simple.

claymore
01-04-2011, 07:44 PM
At a MINIMUM, moving from #2 to #1 will cost us a 2nd round pick. So, we make the trade, get Luck, and have now wasted TWO picks that should've been used on defense on a QB we don't really need.

I know you don't like Tebow, but you're smart enough to know that even with Luck at his best playing on the current team, we're still a sub .500 club. WE HAVE THE WORST DEFENSE IN OUR HISTORY! One of the worst defenses in NFL history! Wasting picks on more offensive players won't improve this team. Luck will throw up mad offensive stats and probably make pro-bowls, but we'll continue to lose games 33-28. It's just that simple.

What if we could get it done for Tebow? Even if we throw in a second...

There is not a single Defensive player in this draft to build a team around. But their is one QB you can build around.

HORSEPOWER 56
01-04-2011, 08:05 PM
What if we could get it done for Tebow? Even if we throw in a second...

There is not a single Defensive player in this draft to build a team around. But their is one QB you can build around.

But you can't be sure he's not just another Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, or Akili Smith! Just like you can't bet on any of the defensive players, but at least we'd be trying to fix our glaring weakness (the D-line) without trading away a guy that we've all seen can actually play the QB position, keep our offense competitive, and even lead a comeback from time to time!

Dzone
01-04-2011, 08:17 PM
Just hope we dont end up with a sam bowie equivalent..OMG that would bu so awful. Its really sad how many of Mcd picks are busts or on their way to being busts..mcbath, ayers, smith, r quinn, hopefully not moreno or thomas...The entire fortune of this team could have been totally different with different picks..Now we know why draft day is the 3rd biggest sporting event in the country. Teams are made or broken in the draft

Dirk
01-04-2011, 08:38 PM
the Broncos offer a package such as Tebow, this year's #2 overall and next year's #1 to trade places with the Panthers. Then the Broncos are in place to draft Luck.

Way too much on a non-proven QB.

I want Luck as much as anyone but that is way too much. I know he is being touted as a can't miss QB....but it is still a crap shoot. The team can't afford to spend future draft picks for anyone.


Hell, if we don't fix the defense in this years draft and free agency, we may have the number 1 pick next year. Just think about that. :tsk:

Tebow666
01-04-2011, 08:39 PM
What if we could get it done for Tebow? Even if we throw in a second...

There is not a single Defensive player in this draft to build a team around. But their is one QB you can build around.

so Tebow is a good guy for carolina to build around and a 2nd round pick, but for us already owning the pick and having Tebow is no good?

why are we even considering luck? he will be great but so will Tebow, lets get the D together.

underrated29
01-04-2011, 08:57 PM
Luck, will suck his first year anyway. If we take him we will end up with the #1 overall. And I am not saying luck sucks, but rookie Qbs do not perform super well.


We can pull up every rookie Qbs numbers and I am sure they are no better than Kyle Ortons this year. Tebow will almost certainly put up better numbers than him next year..bradford too.

The years after maybe, I have not seen enough of luck yet. Still the difference does not justify picking #1 overall next year.