Cugel
01-01-2011, 10:14 PM
Since nobody commented on it, I thought I'd mention this article from the Post (http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_16978932)that has an interesting analysis based on interviews by Jeff Legwold with "personnel executives from eight NFL teams to determine how they rank Denver personnel and how much work they believe the Broncos have in front of them in a multiyear rebuilding job."
Basically, the "personnel executives see an aging, thin roster facing a large talent deficit." And "personnel execs also say that when the Broncos, under McDaniels, traded away players such as Jay Cutler, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Marshall and Alphonso Smith, they didn't get comparably ranked talent in return." That much is not a surprise to anyone who watches games on Sunday. But, the depth of the talent gap might surprise many fans who think the Broncos have a significant base to work from, or that a few moves will restore the franchise to competitiveness.
It's going to be a LONG time before the Broncos can hope to compete for a championship. Right now they are one of the LEAST talented teams in the NFL -- in the view of NFL GMs and talent evaluators.
Teams evaluate talent according to a color-coded system with "Blue" indicating "elite at a position." The next step down is "Pro-Bowl Player", the next tier down is "solid starter" and finally "role player."
1. "Blue (elite) Players": Two teams said Bailey was the only Broncos player with such a rating. The other six said the Broncos do not have a "blue" player. On average, a successful playoff team will have three or more "blue" players."
Considering that Champ Bailey is gone next season that would leave the Broncos with NO "elite" level players in the opinion of any of the 8 NFL executives. I would disagree since Elvis Dumervil led the NFL in sacks with 16 two years ago and he's coming back and COULD move into this category -- but that remains to be proved of course.
But, if they mean by "elite" consistently among the best in the NFL, for a number of years, then NO the Broncos have NO "elite" players at all (outside of Bailey)!
2. Pro-Bowl Players: "The next level down is Pro Bowl level. The consensus was that Bailey, guard Chris Kuper, outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil and left tackle Ryan Clady were the only Broncos on this tier."
Of course, those players are the only decent holdovers left from the Mike Shanahan era after McDaniels ran all the talent out of town and brought in scrubs to replace them.
Once again, if you subtract Bailey (since he's a FA and doesn't want to stay in Denver), there's only THREE 2nd tier players on the roster. Top teams like the Falcons, Saints or Patriots have probably 10 or more players in these top 2 categories.
3. "Solid Starters" -- "None of those surveyed gave the Broncos more than 12 players on this level, far fewer than a playoff hopeful." This is the bread and butter of good NFL teams. A top franchise has MOSTLY "solid starters" or better at almost every position.
The players the NFL executives mentioned as "solid starters" included: Kyle Orton; Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Lloyd; D.J. Williams; Jamal Williams; Andre Goodman; and Daniel Graham.
Of these of course, Orton and Jamal Williams' future with the team are in question. I'm not sure how Daniel Graham counts as a "solid starter" unless they mean as a blocking TE. He certainly can't catch passes very well as he proved. In short he's overpaid as a starting TE and is NOT a threat in the passing game.
Demaryius Thomas is often injured and his future is far from assured. Daniel Graham is a decent #2 CB, but certainly can't take Champ Bailey's place as the #1 CB and be matched up against ELITE WRs.
DJ seems to have some off field issues that may cause problems but otherwise deserves the "solid starter" label. The entire defense should be filled with guys like him or better.
4. "Role Players" -- these are players who should NOT be starting for a GOOD NFL team. Instead, they "add depth and can help a team play situational football." Most of the rest of the Broncos starters (Buckhalter, Ayers, Gaffney, Woodyard, Dawkins, Haggan, etc.) fall into that category.
I would rate Dawkins higher than that, (as a "solid starter") but again it's probably immaterial if he's gone next season -- and he has little incentive to come back for another losing season for a rebuilding team. He'll also probably want to go to a team that has a chance to win the SB next year if he wants to come back at all at his age.
You can see the long term problem from this. Most of the Broncos players are at least 1 step DOWN from their counterparts on other teams. Other teams have 3 or more "elite" players to our 1 or none. Most others have more "Pro-bowl" caliber players and MANY more "solid starters".
Then there is the major problem that lots of guys who would be special-teams players on other squads (Woodyard, Syd'Quan Thompson and Nate Jones for example) are all too often pressed into starting duty -- and they SUCK at it. :coffee:
This is going to take a LONG time (perhaps 3 or 4 years) to rebuild to the point where the Broncos roster compares favorably with elite teams like the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, etc.
The upside is that Moreno and Tebow could move into the category of "solid starters" next season if they continue to develop, which would at least be a help. Still, the turnover over the next 2 seasons is going to be severe and almost the entire defense is going to have to go before the team can make a serious division threat.
Basically, the "personnel executives see an aging, thin roster facing a large talent deficit." And "personnel execs also say that when the Broncos, under McDaniels, traded away players such as Jay Cutler, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Marshall and Alphonso Smith, they didn't get comparably ranked talent in return." That much is not a surprise to anyone who watches games on Sunday. But, the depth of the talent gap might surprise many fans who think the Broncos have a significant base to work from, or that a few moves will restore the franchise to competitiveness.
It's going to be a LONG time before the Broncos can hope to compete for a championship. Right now they are one of the LEAST talented teams in the NFL -- in the view of NFL GMs and talent evaluators.
Teams evaluate talent according to a color-coded system with "Blue" indicating "elite at a position." The next step down is "Pro-Bowl Player", the next tier down is "solid starter" and finally "role player."
1. "Blue (elite) Players": Two teams said Bailey was the only Broncos player with such a rating. The other six said the Broncos do not have a "blue" player. On average, a successful playoff team will have three or more "blue" players."
Considering that Champ Bailey is gone next season that would leave the Broncos with NO "elite" level players in the opinion of any of the 8 NFL executives. I would disagree since Elvis Dumervil led the NFL in sacks with 16 two years ago and he's coming back and COULD move into this category -- but that remains to be proved of course.
But, if they mean by "elite" consistently among the best in the NFL, for a number of years, then NO the Broncos have NO "elite" players at all (outside of Bailey)!
2. Pro-Bowl Players: "The next level down is Pro Bowl level. The consensus was that Bailey, guard Chris Kuper, outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil and left tackle Ryan Clady were the only Broncos on this tier."
Of course, those players are the only decent holdovers left from the Mike Shanahan era after McDaniels ran all the talent out of town and brought in scrubs to replace them.
Once again, if you subtract Bailey (since he's a FA and doesn't want to stay in Denver), there's only THREE 2nd tier players on the roster. Top teams like the Falcons, Saints or Patriots have probably 10 or more players in these top 2 categories.
3. "Solid Starters" -- "None of those surveyed gave the Broncos more than 12 players on this level, far fewer than a playoff hopeful." This is the bread and butter of good NFL teams. A top franchise has MOSTLY "solid starters" or better at almost every position.
The players the NFL executives mentioned as "solid starters" included: Kyle Orton; Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Lloyd; D.J. Williams; Jamal Williams; Andre Goodman; and Daniel Graham.
Of these of course, Orton and Jamal Williams' future with the team are in question. I'm not sure how Daniel Graham counts as a "solid starter" unless they mean as a blocking TE. He certainly can't catch passes very well as he proved. In short he's overpaid as a starting TE and is NOT a threat in the passing game.
Demaryius Thomas is often injured and his future is far from assured. Daniel Graham is a decent #2 CB, but certainly can't take Champ Bailey's place as the #1 CB and be matched up against ELITE WRs.
DJ seems to have some off field issues that may cause problems but otherwise deserves the "solid starter" label. The entire defense should be filled with guys like him or better.
4. "Role Players" -- these are players who should NOT be starting for a GOOD NFL team. Instead, they "add depth and can help a team play situational football." Most of the rest of the Broncos starters (Buckhalter, Ayers, Gaffney, Woodyard, Dawkins, Haggan, etc.) fall into that category.
I would rate Dawkins higher than that, (as a "solid starter") but again it's probably immaterial if he's gone next season -- and he has little incentive to come back for another losing season for a rebuilding team. He'll also probably want to go to a team that has a chance to win the SB next year if he wants to come back at all at his age.
You can see the long term problem from this. Most of the Broncos players are at least 1 step DOWN from their counterparts on other teams. Other teams have 3 or more "elite" players to our 1 or none. Most others have more "Pro-bowl" caliber players and MANY more "solid starters".
Then there is the major problem that lots of guys who would be special-teams players on other squads (Woodyard, Syd'Quan Thompson and Nate Jones for example) are all too often pressed into starting duty -- and they SUCK at it. :coffee:
This is going to take a LONG time (perhaps 3 or 4 years) to rebuild to the point where the Broncos roster compares favorably with elite teams like the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, etc.
The upside is that Moreno and Tebow could move into the category of "solid starters" next season if they continue to develop, which would at least be a help. Still, the turnover over the next 2 seasons is going to be severe and almost the entire defense is going to have to go before the team can make a serious division threat.