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View Full Version : Poll - Would you rather have loss and #2 pick or win and #6 pick this Sunday?



Tned
12-29-2010, 03:21 PM
Ok, moment of truth. No longer a 7-9 or number 1 pick.

If the Broncos lose this weekend they will have the #2 pick in the upcoming draft. If they win, they could drop to #6.

Is one meaningless win at the end of the year worth dropping four spots in the draft. Assuming Luck comes out and Carolina picks him, at two the Broncos will be able to pick the best defensive player. Is a win Sunday worth possibly giving that up?

honz
12-29-2010, 03:24 PM
Poll fail!!!

Nomad
12-29-2010, 03:29 PM
I'll take the win and #2!!

Tned
12-29-2010, 03:31 PM
I'll take the win and #2!!

That was the "always optimistic" side of me...

honz
12-29-2010, 03:32 PM
The win. I could never root for one of my teams to lose...that said though, the #2 pick would be be nice. A loss wouldn't be so bad.

EMB6903
12-29-2010, 03:32 PM
Win the game on sunday... Worry about the draft order when the season is over.

Tned
12-29-2010, 03:35 PM
The win. I could never root for one of my teams to lose...that said though, the #2 pick would be be nice. A loss wouldn't be so bad.

I can't remember ever hoping for a loss, but I will admit to being torn for this weekend. The win, other than us having the season end on a high note and hopefully seing Tebow have another good game, means absolutely nothing.

On the other hand, getting the best defensive player, someone we may not get at number 5 or 6, could help us for years to come.

So, I'm torn.

Buff
12-29-2010, 03:38 PM
I don't want to lose. But if one single meaningless loss means we can get an elite gamechanger on D for years to come then I don't really see how it's even a contest.

TXBRONC
12-29-2010, 03:40 PM
I hope that we win because I know we will still come away with a top ten pick but should we lose even though it would be to the Chargers I think I can get over it quickly.

LTC Pain
12-29-2010, 03:44 PM
Play to win, no matter the resulting draft slotting. GO BRONCOS!

TXBRONC
12-29-2010, 03:47 PM
Play to win, no matter the resulting draft slotting. GO BRONCOS!

That being said how bummed will you be if Denver does lose?

DenBronx
12-29-2010, 03:48 PM
you need option 3. beat san diego while all of the other 4 or 5 win teams win or tie. that way we stay picks 2-4.

LTC Pain
12-29-2010, 03:51 PM
That being said how bummed will you be if Denver does lose?

No more or less "bummed" than with the other losses this season. What the Broncos do with the #2 or #6 pick is only a fraction of "fixing the D" situation that needs to be addressed. What will disappoint me is if the next GM/HC (whoever) uses any our first four picks on offensive side.

Lancane
12-29-2010, 03:51 PM
Can I plead the fifth?

I never want the Broncos to lose (Except I admit that I wanted us to with McDaniels at the helm at the end only in order to rid us of him) but other then that I never did. Having the second pick would give us a shot at Bowers, Fairley or Peterson, so really any one of those three would be huge. And at the same time we wouldn't be able to trade down and get more picks as easily as some morons think, so we could be stuck and I sort of like that fact...then again, trading the sixth overall pick could be easier, especially if one of the top quarterbacks is available and Minnesota or Tennessee is interested, and I would love to draft Adrian Clayborn out of Iowa. I really don't know.

HORSEPOWER 56
12-29-2010, 03:52 PM
I want us to play to win...


but to fall just short and lose... :decision:


Only because I want a shot at the best D-line prospect possible. It's OUR TURN DAMMIT!!!!

Magnificent Seven
12-29-2010, 03:52 PM
Just play honest. I am really happy with Tebow and I am sure that they will have 2 picks in the first draft pick. They could trade Orton to either 49ers or Cardinals for 1st round draft pick. However, they must draft a stud defensive player. Seriously.

Tned
12-29-2010, 03:53 PM
you need option 3. beat san diego while all of the other 4 or 5 win teams win or tie. that way we stay picks 2-4.

That's not really a hard choice, that's just hoping for the best of all worlds. I'm after whether people are willing to root for a loss, in order to get the best defensive player on the board.

Northman
12-29-2010, 03:53 PM
Ill take my chances with a #6 pick.

LTC Pain
12-29-2010, 03:53 PM
Just play honest. I am really happy with Tebow and I am sure that they will have 2 picks in the first draft pick. They could trade Orton to either 49ers or Cardinals for 1st round draft pick. However, they must draft a stud defensive player. Seriously.

Or trade Orton to the Cardinals for Dan Williams, NT :elefant: :beer:

Lancane
12-29-2010, 03:57 PM
That's not really a hard choice, that's just hoping for the best of all worlds. I'm after whether people are willing to root for a loss, in order to get the best defensive player on the board.

I think a lot of us hope for that, hell...I hope Carolina wins against Pittsburgh so the number one over all pick is up for grabs. Because if we by chance got that pick, teams would be rushing to the phones to get a package together to get Luck! Like I said, I am not really sure what I want, but the higher the pick after Luck is off the board the harder it would be to trade down and we will have to take the best defensive player available.

MasterShake
12-29-2010, 03:57 PM
I picked a win for a couple reasons.

1. Its the Chargers. If it were any team not in the AFC West I might say lose, but I really don't like them.

2. A win is garuanteed happiness for me. Even a top prospect could be a flop in this league. I have to go with the sure thing! Instant gratification! :salute:

arapaho2
12-29-2010, 04:00 PM
we all want whats best for the broncos as fans,,,because if the broncos are successful we are hapoy

that said a win gets us what?...a warm happy feeling for a day or so?

a loss gets us the #2 overall pick in the draft that could end up being a huge benefit to the team in the next few years...a leg up in becomeing relevant again

im doing whats best for the team i support by praying we play our assses off...tebow shines...and we lose by a last second FG

im a team player:lol:

TXBRONC
12-29-2010, 04:05 PM
In the other thread about Denver tanking the game I said I didn't want them to do that. I still feel that way I don't want Denver to intentionally tank a game. I want the Broncos to try and win and if they do great if they don't well it means we have the number two pick in the draft.

Something that LTC said and I've said myself one draft pick isn't going fix everything that is wrong with teams and that's especially true on defense. So while in one respect it's exciting to have pick that high there is sobering reality Denver could still be looking at more lean years.

SOCALORADO.
12-29-2010, 04:07 PM
In the other thread about Denver tanking the game I said I didn't want them to do that. I still feel that way I don't want Denver to intentionally tank a game. I want the Broncos to try and win and if they do great if they don't well it means we have the number two pick in the draft.

Something that LTC said and I've said myself one draft pick isn't going fix everything that is wrong with teams and that's especially true on defense. So while in one respect it's exciting to have pick that high there is sobering reality Denver could still be looking at more lean years.

You know i am begining to think that Patrick Peterson might not be such a bad pick, if DEN has a top 5 pick. Not sure if Champ will still be here next year, and Peterson is an absolute monster.

DenBronx
12-29-2010, 04:07 PM
That's not really a hard choice, that's just hoping for the best of all worlds. I'm after whether people are willing to root for a loss, in order to get the best defensive player on the board.

then just win dammit!!!

Tned
12-29-2010, 04:10 PM
I picked a win for a couple reasons.

1. Its the Chargers. If it were any team not in the AFC West I might say lose, but I really don't like them.

2. A win is garuanteed happiness for me. Even a top prospect could be a flop in this league. I have to go with the sure thing! Instant gratification! :salute:

That's why I've always been an "I'll take a 7-9 season over top pick" whenever that poll is posted. I look forward to the football season, then live and die a bit each week with the wins and losses. I cherish every win, so normally I would never, ever hope for a loss, because a win, even when we are out of the playoffs, is something I want.

This Sunday, i'm torn.

Ravage!!!
12-29-2010, 04:10 PM
I never want to lose to SD, but at this point.... who cares? I just don't right now. Having the #2 pick is something I've never imagined this team having to go through. That was something you saw with the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers. Might be nice to have a shot at the top 2 guys of the draft... or even have the ability to trade down, acquire some more picks, and still draft in top 5.

(p.s. no way in HELL do we get a 1st round pick for Kyle Orton)

underrated29
12-29-2010, 04:25 PM
The worst we could end up is #5 not #6...I think it was klis, but whatever writer was incorrect. 5 is the worst we could do.



With that said. I dam definitely want to see us beat the bolts. I want to freaking murder them! Not only are they out of the playoffs but I want them to have the sh*t taste of tebow boot in their mouths all the way until next setpember.

Screw those guys!!

Plus, I do not not not not not want us to even consider drafting luck, and I personally think that he wont come out, but if he does he will not go to carolina at #1.

I want us to have pick 3 or 4. Beat the bolts and OWN.

Ravage!!!
12-29-2010, 04:28 PM
I would love for us to have the consideration of drafting Luck.

EMB6903
12-29-2010, 04:39 PM
Dareus will be there when Denver picks whether its #2 or #5.
great prospect and a safe pick.
Dareus is the best 5 technique to come out in years and actually has the experience playing it.

underrated29
12-29-2010, 04:41 PM
I would love for us to have the consideration of drafting Luck.



Do you really think Luck Will be and I mean HEAD and SHOULDERS above TT. Like the gap between alex smith and aaron rodgers better?

I do not. Also TT has better numbers than Luck. Now, I am not saying Luck sucks or anything, I have only seen 1 clip of his, so I have a fair amount of scouting to do on him...but even then, our DL is so autrocious that if I gained 100lbs I could probably play as I would have as much talent as those guys do.

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 04:43 PM
gftw!!!

Ravage!!!
12-29-2010, 04:48 PM
Do you really think Luck Will be and I mean HEAD and SHOULDERS above TT. Like the gap between alex smith and aaron rodgers better?

I do not. Also TT has better numbers than Luck. Now, I am not saying Luck sucks or anything, I have only seen 1 clip of his, so I have a fair amount of scouting to do on him...but even then, our DL is so autrocious that if I gained 100lbs I could probably play as I would have as much talent as those guys do.

Yes.. I think Luck will be better than TT, head and shoulders above.

I don't look at the numbers out of college. We've seen TONS of QBs come out of college with great numbers. Who cares about college stats? They mean nothing. Tebow's stats in college mean nothing. I'm not looking, or listening, about Luck's stats in college.

Yes our defense is atrocious. I know this. I also know that NO TEAM is a consistent competitor to make it to the Super Bowl unless you have an elite QB. Luck is a LOT LOT LOT more likely to be an elite QB than Tebow. That reason alone, is why this franchise would be better with Luck than any defensive player we could EVER take.

Even when the team is bad, when you have a guy like Manning, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Ryan, or Rothlesburger.... your team is a contender. Purely because of who you have behind center. A top QB can make your defense better. If there is ONE guy you absolutely, do NOT pass on, it would be Luck.

I agree that Carolina won't pass on him..... so why worry about having the chance for him if you are so confident in that happening?

underrated29
12-29-2010, 05:01 PM
Im worried because I think TT can and will be great. I cant agree enough that if you have a special QB in place your team always has a chance. But I think TT can be that. If not I think he will be at minimum as effective as big ben. He has yet to show he cant. I know he also has yet to really show he can, but what he has done is better than what I see from clausen, colt etc.

So to me we would be wasting either this years 1st or last years 1st on one of our Qbs. Or we take our chances- which IMO are very favorable that our QB is fine and move strait on to DL.

I suppose it just matters how much one likes luck and how much faith one has in TT.

shank
12-29-2010, 05:04 PM
the fanbase in general is latched onto tebow. if we ditch him, even if it's for luck, there will be a fanbase revolt. i didn't even want tebow, but he's here now and i think he's the future. it would be jay cutler v 2.0, which is the last thing that bowlen could ever want after McD.

as to the OP question, buff is wrong, we should win.

Ravage!!!
12-29-2010, 05:21 PM
the fanbase in general is latched onto tebow. if we ditch him, even if it's for luck, there will be a fanbase revolt. i didn't even want tebow, but he's here now and i think he's the future. it would be jay cutler v 2.0, which is the last thing that bowlen could ever want after McD.

as to the OP question, buff is wrong, we should win.


I don't agree. Tebow, as of yet, hasn't proved anything on the field. I don't think it will be the same situation because those that came to be Denver fans purely based on Tebow, will simply follow him to the next team.

Those that have been Denver fans, would know that Luck is just a player that you DO NOT pass on. So I don't think Tebow has this fanatical following from the DENVER fans, yet.

But if we DID have a chance at Luck.... I feel confident we would take it. But I also feel very confident, that we'll never know.

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 05:23 PM
I'd be pissed if we drafted another QB. I would like to see what Tebow can do.

I also think Tebow will be fine and that we need a defense more than another QB.

Ravage!!!
12-29-2010, 05:27 PM
See.. its the word "fine" that bothers me. Could Tebow be "fine".... maybe. But is "fine" really what you should be lookign for in an NFL QB?

Plus, no team is considered a contender, before the season even starts, because they have a great DT. But they ARE if they have a great QB.

EMB6903
12-29-2010, 05:31 PM
I think most of us expect Tebow to be much better then just average.

Based off his first 2 nfl starts I feel like Tebow is going to be a great QB... not just "fine"

OrangeHoof
12-29-2010, 05:35 PM
It's a shame we can't lose and then draft Suh at #2 like the Lions did last year. That dude is a beast and I don't see anyone coming out this year that's his equal.

T.K.O.
12-29-2010, 05:37 PM
Tebow needs to learn how to beat the bolts.....
i like the idea of the higher draft pick and frankly,it's pretty likely rivers will carve our D like a Christmas goose.but i just cant help but want to see the boys end this miserable season on a high note and a beatdown of a division rival:salute:

EMB6903
12-29-2010, 05:37 PM
It's a shame we can't lose and then draft Suh at #2 like the Lions did last year. That dude is a beast and I don't see anyone coming out this year that's his equal.

ya Denver picked the wrong year to suck.

Suh might be the best defensive prospect ive ever seen.

Elevation inc
12-29-2010, 06:22 PM
the win, i really dont give a crap about 4 draft slots....

Ravage!!!
12-29-2010, 06:38 PM
If a loss gaines us something (better draft choice), what does the win gain us?

Sinthor
12-29-2010, 06:38 PM
I want the win.

First, it's worth it to see Mr. Rivers having tantrums on the sideline and in the huddle.

Second, I want Tebow to have a good game win or lose to shut up the critics, at least over the offseason.

Third, the #1 defensive player in the draft only fits the 4-3 really. If we shift back to the 4-3 Dumerville is of way less use and we just paid him a ton of $$. So that doesn't make sense to me. With a number 4-6 we could get one of the BIG NT or DE guys that WILL fit in the 3-4, so I don't think that matters so much.

I want to beat the Bolts and I want Tebow to have another great game! I want those critics to have nothing to write about all winter and spring except for their hoping "lets see if he can keep it up," NOT any stupid "I told you so's" based on one silly game.

Lets go! Beat the Chargers!

Elevation inc
12-29-2010, 06:49 PM
If a loss gaines us something (better draft choice), what does the win gain us?

Beating the chargers to close the season for the first time in 4 years, with tebow only in his 3rd start, is a big enough win for me, far more than 4 draft spots.....especially since the player I really want is DE JJwatt who will be a 6-10 pick come draft day....just saying

atwater27
12-29-2010, 07:01 PM
I hope Denver loses so we get the 2nd pick. And I don't believe the half of you who SAY the opposite. You are full of shit and are secretly hoping we lose so we can get the 2nd pick. Bunch of liars.

Elevation inc
12-29-2010, 07:02 PM
I hope Denver loses so we get the 2nd pick. And I don't believe the half of you who SAY the opposite. You are full of shit and are secretly hoping we lose so we can get the 2nd pick. Bunch of liars.

f'u.....enough said....









lol.....

atwater27
12-29-2010, 07:02 PM
If a loss gaines us something (better draft choice), what does the win gain us?

Nothing. /thread.

Elevation inc
12-29-2010, 07:04 PM
really i care more about the win that the number 2 pick.....at 2 our options are peterson and fairley at 6 our options are well much more viable because its a better spot for teams willing to trade up so we can get more picks.....so there....lol

BigDaddyBronco
12-29-2010, 07:04 PM
I don't want to lose. But if one single meaningless loss means we can get an elite gamechanger on D for years to come then I don't really see how it's even a contest.
Or a huge bust of a draft pick.

Nomad
12-29-2010, 07:10 PM
really i care more about the win that the number 2 pick.....at 2 our options are peterson and fairley at 6 our options are well much more viable because its a better spot for teams willing to trade up so we can get more picks.....so there....lol

I'm on the fence, but you make better sense!!

Those hoping the BRONCOS get the #2 pick and trade up to get Luck should come back to Earth and realize it won't happen!!

EMB6903
12-29-2010, 07:12 PM
What if there is no rookie cap?

Then whats everybodys opinion on the #2 overall pick?

Nomad
12-29-2010, 07:15 PM
What if there is no rookie cap?

Then whats everybodys opinion on the #2 overall pick?


What happens if there is no cap??

Buff
12-29-2010, 07:16 PM
I hate every argument against the #2 pick. Pat Bowlen is the only person that should want to pick later in the draft,because he's the one writing the checks.

The only legit argument would be that the #2 pick eats up a larger portion of the salary cap (assuming it comes back in the new CBA)... But if the Lions can perennially pick in the top 5 and find a way to get under the cap, then so can we.

PAINTERDAVE
12-29-2010, 07:32 PM
Listening to the Radio today.

Sandy Clough said that all the Broncos personel he has talked to at Dove Valley expect to trade down.

I want them to take the top talent they can get...
but Clough said he fully expects the Broncos to trade their high #1...
for a low #1 and an extra #2.

He also expects, from what he heard from his Bronco sources, that Orton will be traded as well...
for as much as maybe two late round picks.

Clough said the mindset at Dove Valley is that we need to increase the number of players chosen for defense...
having only 6 picks wont get it done.

If we could get two for Orton... and turn the 1st into 2 picks...
we'd be able to draft 9 players.

That is the scuttlebutt on the radio today.

______________________________
and...

if we win... we may not drop far anyway...

maybe we win and still have the #3 or #4 pick...

#5 aint even that bad... especially if we just trade down anyway.

Magnificent Seven
12-29-2010, 07:35 PM
I would like to see Broncos win over Chargers and Tebow would be 2-0 at home. Moreover, Tebow could be 1-0 against Chargers. Therefore, Broncos could get some good feedback and stay positive in during the off-season.

I am pretty sure that Broncos will be located in between 2nd and 7th pick in the first round draft pick. We have nothing to lose. Just draft a stud defensive player. I am not worrying about this situation. I think it is win-win situation.

PAINTERDAVE
12-29-2010, 07:36 PM
And if we traded down with the first pick...
we'd have a late 1st
and a high 2nd
with 2 more 2nds.....

four picks in the first two rounds would be pretty sweet.

IF.. some team was foolish enough to give a 2nd for Orton...

that would be 5 picks in the first 2 rounds.

_____________________________
Hey ... a guy can dream , right?

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 07:38 PM
Listening to the Radio today.

Sandy Clough said that all the Broncos personel he has talked to at Dove Valley expect to trade down.

I want them to take the top talent they can get...
but Clough said he fully expects the Broncos to trade their high #1...
for a low #1 and an extra #2.

He also expects, from what he heard from his Bronco sources, that Orton will be traded as well...
for as much as maybe two late round picks.

Clough said the mindset at Dove Valley is that we need to increase the number of players chosen for defense...
having only 6 picks wont get it done.

If we could get two for Orton... and turn the 1st into 2 picks...
we'd be able to draft 9 players.

That is the scuttlebutt on the radio today.

______________________________
and...

if we win... we may not drop far anyway...

maybe we win and still have the #3 or #4 pick...

#5 aint even that bad... especially if we just trade down anyway.

This makes sense to me.

Those of you wanting to lose... :throwrock: :eviltongue:

hamrob
12-29-2010, 07:47 PM
I love Tebow. I love his passion, his will to win, his leadership and his abilities. That being said, he has alot of work to do...in order to become a top 5-10 QB in this league.

The question is...do we think he'll ever get there...and if he does, can he sustain that level of play for many years?

If so, then I would pass on Luck. If not, then you have to take Luck. Luck will be at best the next Peyton Manning and at worse...the next Matt Ryan.

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 07:58 PM
No one knows how luck will perform, we have at least some insight into how Tebow will perform and we already have him.

zbeg
12-29-2010, 08:00 PM
I love Tebow. I love his passion, his will to win, his leadership and his abilities. That being said, he has alot of work to do...in order to become a top 5-10 QB in this league.

The question is...do we think he'll ever get there...and if he does, can he sustain that level of play for many years?

If so, then I would pass on Luck. If not, then you have to take Luck. Luck will be at best the next Peyton Manning and at worse...the next Matt Ryan.

Your basement for Luck is way too high. No QB out of the draft has a basement that high. Luck is good, but he could be at best the next Peyton Manning, and at worst...the next David Carr or Tim Couch.

I don't see Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf potential from him at least, so there's that. :-)

horsepig
12-29-2010, 08:17 PM
I can't remember ever hoping for a loss, but I will admit to being torn for this weekend. The win, other than us having the season end on a high note and hopefully seing Tebow have another good game, means absolutely nothing.

On the other hand, getting the best defensive player, someone we may not get at number 5 or 6, could help us for years to come.

So, I'm torn.

I feel the same way. The "hotdogs" do have a pretty decent defense. a tribute to Rivera, and I'd love to see Tebow excel against that unit.

That said, the diff. between #2 or #3 and #6 is HUGE!

LoyalSoldier
12-29-2010, 08:18 PM
While a win against SD would be good, I think we need to talent.

T.K.O.
12-29-2010, 08:21 PM
as stated in another thread....the broncos are apparently the only team in the nfl to have never lost 12 games in a season....
again maybe no biggie after the crappy season that was 2010....but it is a consolation prize if they beat the bolts !

horsepig
12-29-2010, 08:22 PM
Do you really think Luck Will be and I mean HEAD and SHOULDERS above TT. Like the gap between alex smith and aaron rodgers better?

I do not. Also TT has better numbers than Luck. Now, I am not saying Luck sucks or anything, I have only seen 1 clip of his, so I have a fair amount of scouting to do on him...but even then, our DL is so autrocious that if I gained 100lbs I could probably play as I would have as much talent as those guys do.

Hell yeah, U29. I run about 235 with two bad knees. Give me unlimited access to beer and I could hit 325 in nothing flat. I could even get to 350 with unlimited access to steak and taters, and candy bars. I could dress, fall down in the middle, and clog the running lanes with some of'em.

oubronco
12-29-2010, 08:34 PM
I would rather win but San Diego has owned our defense for the last 5 yrs and I don't see anything different this week

zbeg
12-29-2010, 09:00 PM
I just see no actual long-term benefit for the Broncos to win this Sunday.

Let me ask you this: The Broncos went 6-10 in 1999. Had they lost to the Seahawks in overtime instead of beating them, and went 5-11, would that have drastically changed the way you see that season? Would it have changed anything at all?

You know what would have changed?

The Broncos ended up with the #10 overall pick instead of drafting no worse than #7. The Broncos reportedly coveted Brian Urlacher, but he went to Chicago at #9, and the Broncos traded out of the #10 spot once Urlacher wasn't available.

Denver ended up taking Deltha O'Neal instead.

That game against the Seahawks (at Mile High) was SUPER EXCITING. Seattle was down by two scores, and they had to make a crazy comeback complete with onside kicks to force OT. Then a forced fumble recovered by I believe Glenn Cadrez set up the winning touchdown. I must have burned about 300 calories jumping up and down on that fumble return with the yelling and the excitement and the happy. Nice memory, for sure.

I'm not saying that the draft has perfect information, because it clearly doesn't. But the draft isn't completely random, either. The better players TEND to go higher. If you plotted the successful players in the draft, you see that overall, the higher the draft pick, the better chance they have for success.

Don't believe me? Here's a quick graphical representation - just scan through and look for the yellow squares, and see where they tend to be:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_NFL_Draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_NFL_Draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_NFL_Draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_NFL_Draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_NFL_Draft

and so on. Pick any year. Look how the orange squares are really solid hits at the very top of the draft, generally speaking.

Sure, you have busts like Tim Couch, Curtis Enis, Ryan Leaf, etc. but you want to maximize your chances of success, which is all you can do in the draft.

There's luck/randomness in the NFL draft (and I don't mean the Stanford QB). Any time you have luck in anything, there are going to be things outside your control. All you can do is help maximize your chances of doing well.

For example, there's a nonzero chance you will get cancer during your lifetime. But if you don't smoke, you are reducing your chances significantly. It doesn't mean you won't get cancer, but you are helping your odds. My mother got cancer and she never smoked a cigarette in her life; plenty of people get cancer without smoking - and she gave herself the best chance NOT to get it. Just because she did doesn't mean that her decision not to smoke was wrong.

The NFL draft is similarly random. You might get a bust with your first round pick, but the better your draft position, the better your chances are of hitting on it.

Now with this specific draft, when you take a look at Denver's most pressing need (defensive line) and there are two defensive linemen who will likely be gone by the time the #5 pick rolls around, the chances are much higher that the Broncos will be better off in the long-term if they get the #2 pick as opposed to the #5 pick (or wherever Denver would end up if they beat the Chargers). We want to maximize our chances for success, and buying some good feelings in the short-term is not worth the potential of handicapping ourselves in the long-term.

There is very little benefit for the Broncos to win this Sunday. It sucks to have to root for the Chargers (ugghg) of all teams to win, but what's bad for Denver today can help us be good for years and years to come. The way we feel about 4-12 vesus 5-11 isn't going to matter that much in the long run - we're going to look at 2010 and think, "that season was a disaster" no matter how you slice it. I'm not willing to trade "that season was marginally less disastrous than it otherwise could have been, but it was still a complete train wreck" for "hey, sure wish we had access to that defensive lineman we really needed, oh well."

I remember that win over the Seahawks in 1999 quite well. I'd remember having Brian Urlacher in a Broncos uniform for a decade a lot more.

Tned
12-29-2010, 09:01 PM
I love Tebow. I love his passion, his will to win, his leadership and his abilities. That being said, he has alot of work to do...in order to become a top 5-10 QB in this league.

The question is...do we think he'll ever get there...and if he does, can he sustain that level of play for many years?

If so, then I would pass on Luck. If not, then you have to take Luck. Luck will be at best the next Peyton Manning and at worse...the next Matt Ryan.

Most of what I have read and heard is that Carolina wouldn't pass on Luck, so that likely isn't even an option at this point.


And if we traded down with the first pick...
we'd have a late 1st
and a high 2nd
with 2 more 2nds.....

four picks in the first two rounds would be pretty sweet.

IF.. some team was foolish enough to give a 2nd for Orton...

that would be 5 picks in the first 2 rounds.

_____________________________
Hey ... a guy can dream , right?

I would love to think that a team would give us a 2nd for Orton, but I think it's very unlikely. More likely a mid round pick, or two late round picks.

Cugel
12-29-2010, 09:11 PM
Win the game on sunday... Worry about the draft order when the season is over.

This is exactly the type of short sighted NONSENSE that could haunt the team for years!

The #5 or #6 pick is possibly the WORST picks in the draft! Here's why:

It's probably too high for a CB or S or LB, yet the best pass-rushers are already off the board. The top WR might be available but who wants that? You don't need a QB or LT, which might be a good pick there.

Oh, and you have tried for months to trade down, but nobody really wants to give up what it would take to trade UP. So, no takers! You have to do what the KC Chiefs have had to do for years, eat the pick and just take the best available player and give him a ridiculous contract (Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson, Eric Berry)!

Check it out!


Eric Berry Defensive Back 7/30/2010: Signed a five-year, $60 million contract. The deal contains $34 million guaranteed. 2011: $3.25 million, 2012: $3.9 million, 2013: $4.55 million, 2014: $5.2 million, 2015: $5.85 million (Voidable Year), 2016: Free Agent

Eric Berry is a good prospect -- for a safety! They used 5th pick on Berry because nobody better at a more important position was available!

This happened to the Chiefs THREE years in a row! They get stuck with a top 6 pick, nobody wants to trade up to take it off their hands, they don't have an outstanding prospect to take at that point, so they fork over a $55 million contract to a "good player" who should be a solid starter for years -- but probably nothing special.


2009 Draft -- KC Chiefs Tyson Jackson Defensive Lineman 8/7/2009: Signed a five-year, $57 million contract. The deal includes $31 million guaranteed. (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=KC)2010: $1.075 million, 2011: $1.79 million, 2012: $2.505 million, 2013: $3.22 million, 2014: $3.935 million, 2015: Free Agent

Tyson Jackson got a $57 million contract, with $31 million GUARANTEED before he ever strapped on pads in the NFL!

And is Jackson really that much better than a guy they would have drafted at, say, #31 -- like the Raiders did Asomugha?


Nnamdi Asomugha Defensive Back 2/19/2009: Signed a three-year, $45.3 million contract. The first two years, totaling $28.6 million, are fully guaranteed. Another $4.7 million is available through incentives. To keep Asomugha through 2011, the Raiders must pay him either the franchise number for quarterbacks that year OR $16.875 million, whichever number is greater. If the club fails to exercise the option, Asomugha cannot be franchise tagged and will become an unrestricted free agent. 2011: $2.105 million (Club Option), 2012: $3.455 million (Voidable Years), 2013: $4.805 million, 2014: $6.155 million, 2015: Free Agent

That's NOT a rookie contract. That's Asomugha's VETERAN contract after proving himself the best cover CB in football!

He might earn as much as $31 million, with $28 million guaranteed over the next 2 seasons compared with $31 million guaranteed for Jackson! Tyson Jackson is earning MORE than he is!

One of the best defenders in football versus a "decent player" who's nothing special so far!

Now, the #2 pick gets even MORE money than this so WHY would it be worth it? Because with the #2 pick at least you have a CHANCE to get an extraordinary player, like a DE Mario Williams or possibly this year DE Da'Quan Bowers.

If you're going to be paying top 10 money (and the Broncos are) then you damn well better get an incredible talent for that kind of money!

The Broncos desperate need is for an immediate IMPACT player who will be an ALL-PRO in 4 years time. Not a GOOD player who will be a solid starter for years. Not a guy who might even make a pro-bowl or two eventually. Maybe!

They need a total STUD who can rip it up from day one!

That's probably asking a lot of any rookie. But, this team is that bad. They need another Julius Peppers and Bowers might be that kind of player. Or they need the next Champ Bailey, and Patrick Peterson might be that guy. In short there are possibly THREE players who are considered All Pro prospects right now, Luck, Bowers and Peterson. You don't get a chance at Luck. You won't get a chance at Peterson or Bowers either unless you pick in the top 4.

IF they want to keep the 3-4 and decide that Bowers isn't a fit, then there's still DT Nick Fairley or LSU CB Pat Peterson -- who could be the best defensive player at any position taken in the draft. They will desperately NEED a CB even if Champ Bailey comes back, and will need TWO starters immediately if he doesn't.

In short. The Broncos can't afford to lose their draft position over a meaningless garbage-time game that nobody will remember next September.

Now, yes, there's NO guarantee that Bowers (or anybody) will turn out to be a perennial All-Pro, but the CHANCES are BETTER than with a guy like Cal DE Cameron Jordan (possibly the best 3-4 DE).

Whoo! Hoo! Color me EXCITED! The Broncos just gave a $30 million guaranteed contract to some guy who will probably be invisible for the next ten years (but solid). And will NEVER live up to his draft status.

This game will affect the fortunes of the team for YEARS to come and you people want to "go for the win! Whoo! Hoo!" :coffee: :tsk:

Nomad
12-29-2010, 09:13 PM
Good memory, zbeg!!

Cugel
12-29-2010, 09:25 PM
Most of what I have read and heard is that Carolina wouldn't pass on Luck, so that likely isn't even an option at this point.

I would love to think that a team would give us a 2nd for Orton, but I think it's very unlikely. More likely a mid round pick, or two late round picks.

2nd round pick? You're DREAMING! Most articles suggest he MIGHT be worth a 4th rounder!

FORTH ROUND, not SECOND!

It never fails. Broncos fans are more familiar with Broncos players than other teams' players and for some insane reason think that every other team is desperate to take our cast offs?

Kyle Orton is a decent BACKUP QB! And how much are you going to give up to get a BACKUP when there are plenty of them in FA?

Look people, teams either HAVE a franchise QB or they don't. If they do (or think they do) then they need a backup. If not, they need a rookie draft pick!

AND There's NOT ONE GM in football who thinks "Whoo! Hoo! Kyle Orton is our QB of the future!" :coffee:

Not even McIdiot was that delusional.

Kyle Orton is just a QB with limited talent who plays about as well as you'd expect. The Broncos would be LUCKY to get a 4th for him! A 3rd would be amazing!

A 2nd? For that to happen, former Lions GM Matt Millen would have to come back!

Cugel
12-29-2010, 09:35 PM
I remember that win over the Seahawks in 1999 quite well. I'd remember having Brian Urlacher in a Broncos uniform for a decade a lot more.

Damn! You said it in two sentences better than I did in about 40!

If the Broncos had drafted Urlacher the Broncos defense would possibly have been good enough that Shanahan would never would have been fired. And the Broncos defense just MIGHT have been good enough in 2005 to beat the Steelers in the AFC Championship. Or at least make a game of it. (Adding Urlacher to Al Wilson in that defense would have made a difference)!

That's the stakes people! A "good" "solid" player like a Tyson Jackson or a stud who will impact the team for the next ten years like Bowers, Fairley or Peterson.

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 09:45 PM
My shortsighted nonsense will not hurt the team one tiny bit.

I'll take the win.

This does not mean that I'd rather pick at 6 than 2. It means that I'd rather win games than draft high.

Tned
12-29-2010, 09:47 PM
2nd round pick? You're DREAMING! Most articles suggest he MIGHT be worth a 4th rounder!

FORTH ROUND, not SECOND!


Going off half cocked like usual. Read my post, that's what I said. I was responding to someone who said he hoped (dreamed) that some team would give us a second for Orton and I said more likely a mid round or a couple late round picks is what we would get.



It never fails. Broncos fans are more familiar with Broncos players than other teams' players and for some insane reason think that every other team is desperate to take our cast offs?

Kyle Orton is a decent BACKUP QB! And how much are you going to give up to get a BACKUP when there are plenty of them in FA?

Look people, teams either HAVE a franchise QB or they don't. If they do (or think they do) then they need a backup. If not, they need a rookie draft pick!

AND There's NOT ONE GM in football who thinks "Whoo! Hoo! Kyle Orton is our QB of the future!" :coffee:

Not even McIdiot was that delusional.

Kyle Orton is just a QB with limited talent who plays about as well as you'd expect. The Broncos would be LUCKY to get a 4th for him! A 3rd would be amazing!

A 2nd? For that to happen, former Lions GM Matt Millen would have to come back!

Glad you concur, too bad your reading comprehension isn't as good as your player valuation.

zbeg
12-29-2010, 09:49 PM
My shortsighted nonsense will not hurt the team one tiny bit.

I'll take the win.

This does not mean that I'd rather pick at 6 than 2. It means that I'd rather win games than draft high.

Drafting high correlates to winning games. Do you want to win one game now, or do you want to lose one game and exchange it for winning more games later? Potentially much more important games at that - not ones that mean nothing in terms of playoff position.

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 09:54 PM
I want to win games now, draft smart, and win games in the future.

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 09:57 PM
Drafting high correlates to winning games. Do you want to win one game now, or do you want to lose one game and exchange it for winning more games later? Potentially much more important games at that - not ones that mean nothing in terms of playoff position.

I want the team to do what it is supposed to do. Win.

Drafting comes after the season. That's the only time draft position should be worried about. Unless you're playing against a team whose pick you hold... then you can want to beat them to get a better pick.

Picking high does not necessarily correlate to winning games.

The Steelers, Colts, and Patriots have probably been the most consistent winning teams over the past decade. Where do they usually draft?

Is the player drafted #2 guaranteed to be better than the player drafted #6? No.

Is a win guaranteed to make me smile, and enjoy my weekend more? Yes.

Is a win what the team is supposed to be doing? Is it what the WHOLE POINT is? Yes.

spikerman
12-29-2010, 10:00 PM
I want Tebow to play well, again, but I think I would prefer the team to lose. Like Tned, I'm torn. I don't like to see the Broncos lose, but I think for the long term health of the franchise a higher pick would be better. I don't want to see Denver use the #2 pick (or the #6 for that matter). I think trading down from #2 would garner more picks than trading down from #6 and Denver needs to recoup as many of the draft picks that the last regime gave away as possible.

BroncoWave
12-29-2010, 10:04 PM
If a loss gaines us something (better draft choice), what does the win gain us?

It gains us the fact that people will shut the **** up about Luck, which is more than enough reason for me to hope we win this week.

zbeg
12-29-2010, 10:08 PM
I want the team to do what it is supposed to do. Win.

Drafting comes after the season. That's the only time draft position should be worried about. Unless you're playing against a team whose pick you hold... then you can want to beat them to get a better pick.

Picking high does not necessarily correlate to winning games.

The Steelers, Colts, and Patriots have probably been the most consistent winning teams over the past decade. Where do they usually draft?

Is the player drafted #2 guaranteed to be better than the player drafted #6? No.

Is a win guaranteed to make me smile, and enjoy my weekend more? Yes.

Is a win what the team is supposed to be doing? Is it what the WHOLE POINT is? Yes.

The Colts win so many games because their quarterback is ridiculously good, who was the #1 overall pick. That team is secretly pretty bad this year, but they're going to make the playoffs because despite having a bad o-line, running game, and only one decent receiver, they have a quarterback who will go down as one of the top three in the history of the game (if not the #1).

There is a secondary effect where teams that have bad ownership/management continue to squander their picks, but a team with good management is going to capitalize on a high pick better than if they had a lower pick, which is why the better teams climb out of the cellar and can stay there. But the Broncos need as much help as they can get. A win over the Chargers gets us nothing. NOTHING. Some good feelings? That's it? You want to exchange good feelings for a chance at a dominant defensive lineman? You smiling on Sunday isn't going to pressure the quarterback next year. I promise.

WHO CARES if the Broncos go 4-12 or 5-11? Seriously? Are you going to remember this in ten years? Is this really going to change the way you feel about the team? "Phew, five wins. Good thing we got out of the four win territory! What a big upgrade! Wow, our defensive line sucks...wish we had drafted someone good there. Oh well! That win over the Chargers two years ago was worth it!"

And the whole point is not to win some random individual game. It's to win consistently over a long period of time and win the Super Bowl. Winning now hurts our chances of winning the Super Bowl later.

"Why would I save my money for later, when I can spend it all now on something that's going to make me happy today?"

Cugel
12-29-2010, 10:09 PM
I want the team to do what it is supposed to do. Win.

Drafting comes after the season. That's the only time draft position should be worried about. Unless you're playing against a team whose pick you hold... then you can want to beat them to get a better pick.

Picking high does not necessarily correlate to winning games.

The Steelers, Colts, and Patriots have probably been the most consistent winning teams over the past decade. Where do they usually draft?

Is the player drafted #2 guaranteed to be better than the player drafted #6? No.

Is a win guaranteed to make me smile, and enjoy my weekend more? Yes.

Is a win what the team is supposed to be doing? Is it what the WHOLE POINT is? Yes.

Completely, utterly WRONG! Short-sighted and foolish! :coffee:

The Colts STUNK for years, and got the #1 overall pick, which they used to draft Peyton Manning. Then they used their top 4 picks over the next FOUR years to draft: RB Edgerrin James and DE Dwight Freeney.

They added smart draft picks later in round 1 (as Manning and the team improved) to add Bob Sanders and Dallas Clark and the rest was history.

In short, they had to be BAD, very, very BAD, before they had a chance to get GOOD! That's how the NFL works people. It's called "parity." And it's by design.

If they'd been given the #2 pick they'd have wound up with Ryan Leaf! Your example destroys your very argument against the importance of the draft! :laugh:

If you're mediocre, you get mediocre draft picks, and you tend to stay mediocre. That's exactly what happened to the Broncos the last 10 seasons (until the 2010 McDaniels-apocalypse).

BroncoWave
12-29-2010, 10:11 PM
Completely, utterly WRONG! Short-sighted and foolish! :coffee:

The Colts STUNK for years, and got the #1 overall pick, which they used to draft Peyton Manning. Then they used top 4 picks over the next FOUR years to draft: RB Edgerrin James and DE Dwight Freeney.

They added smart draft picks later in round 1 (as Manning and the team improved) to add Bob Sanders and Dallas Clark and the rest was history.

In short, they had to be BAD, very, very BAD, before they had a chance to get GOOD!

If they'd been given the #2 pick they'd have wound up with Ryan Leaf! Your example destroys your very argument against the importance of the draft! :laugh:

Because a player with Peyton Manning's impact is available in the top 2 every year! :lol:

There are so many good defensive players with top 5 potential I really don't think it matters where we pick in the top 5.

Cugel
12-29-2010, 10:18 PM
"Why would I save my money for later, when I can spend it all now on something that's going to make me happy today?"[/QUOTE]

Like beer! That's what I kept thinking. The people who are making that argument are like the idiots who say to themselves: "I know I have to get up and go to work in the morning, so I probably shouldn't go out to the bar at 10:30 PM and have 10 or 12 tequila shooters and stay out all night, but, what the hell! It will make me happy right now, and that's all that matters! :coffee:

Idiots!

BroncoWave
12-29-2010, 10:19 PM
[i]"Why would I save my money for later, when I can spend it all now on something that's going to make me happy today?"

Like beer! That's what I kept thinking. The people who are making that argument are like the idiots who say to themselves: "I know I have to get up and go to work in the morning, so I probably shouldn't go out to the bar at 10:30 PM and have 10 or 12 tequila shooters and stay out all night, but, what the hell! It will make me happy right now, and that's all that matters! :coffee:

Idiots!

If there were a player at two WAY better than a player we could have at 5 you would have a point, but I don't see any of those defensive players being miles better than any of the other ones.

zbeg
12-29-2010, 10:23 PM
If there were a player at two WAY better than a player we could have at 5 you would have a point, but I don't see any of those defensive players being miles better than any of the other ones.

The two dominant defensive linemen in this draft will likely be off the board by the #5 pick, which is our biggest need by far.

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 10:23 PM
Completely, utterly WRONG! Short-sighted and foolish! :coffee:

The Colts STUNK for years, and got the #1 overall pick, which they used to draft Peyton Manning. Then they used top 4 picks over the next FOUR years to draft: RB Edgerrin James and DE Dwight Freeney.

They added smart draft picks later in round 1 (as Manning and the team improved) to add Bob Sanders and Dallas Clark and the rest was history.

In short, they had to be BAD, very, very BAD, before they had a chance to get GOOD!

If they'd been given the #2 pick they'd have wound up with Ryan Leaf! Your example destroys your very argument against the importance of the draft! :laugh:

Actually, Freeney was drafted at #11... but I see your point... Apparently winning is actually tied to having a good quarterback. Who we either already have, or are unlikely to get at #2 anyway.

Would the Packers have been better off drafting Alex Smith high instead of Rodgers later?

How's Jamarcus working out?

I never said the draft was not important. If it was a lottery for the top 8 picks, I'd be rooting for #1. It's not.

TXBRONC
12-29-2010, 10:25 PM
I hope Denver loses so we get the 2nd pick. And I don't believe the half of you who SAY the opposite. You are full of shit and are secretly hoping we lose so we can get the 2nd pick. Bunch of liars.

You're calling me liar? You better watch yourself bub. :fight: :D

Cugel
12-29-2010, 10:25 PM
Because a player with Peyton Manning's impact is available in the top 2 every year! :lol:

There are so many good defensive players with top 5 potential I really don't think it matters where we pick in the top 5.

You picked the example, not me! If Luck for instance happens to be the next Manning, do you really believe that Broncos fans won't remember that a couple of meaningless games in December 2010 cost them the chance at multiple SBs?

The Chargers are still waiting 11 years later for their chance!

Draft position matters a LOT! :coffee:

BroncoWave
12-29-2010, 10:25 PM
The two dominant defensive linemen in this draft will likely be off the board by the #5 pick, which is our biggest need by far.

First off there are 3, not 2. Fairley, Bowers, Dareus. Second, most mock drafts I have seen also have AJ Green and Robert Quinn going in the top 5. If that happens, at least one of those 3 d-linemen will fall to us if not 2. I would be shocked if they were all gone by 5. I just don't see that as a realistic scenario. Even if we win, we will still be able to get one of those d-linemen, and for a cheaper price.

BroncoWave
12-29-2010, 10:27 PM
You picked the example, not me! If Luck for instance happens to be the next Manning, do you really believe that Broncos fans won't remember that a couple of meaningless games in December 2010 cost them the chance at multiple SBs?

The Chargers are still waiting 11 years later for their chance!

Draft position matters a LOT! :coffee:

The Broncos aren't getting Luck win or lose, so I don't see why you are so hung up on him.

Cugel
12-29-2010, 10:31 PM
Actually, Freeney was drafted at #11... but I see your point... Apparently winning is actually tied to having a good quarterback. Who we either already have, or are unlikely to get at #2 anyway.

Would the Packers have been better off drafting Alex Smith high instead of Rodgers later?

How's Jamarcus working out?

I never said the draft was not important. If it was a lottery for the top 8 picks, I'd be rooting for #1. It's not.

You're STILL throwing out B.S. arguments! JaMarcus Russell? That was because Al Davis is senile! If you SCREW up your chances then you get stuck with JaMarcus Russell instead Adrian Peterson -- because there WERE no QBs to take in 2007 (the next one taken was Brady Quinn). So, they reached. :coffee:

Similarly, nobody aside from the Titans owner thought Vince Young was worth the #1 pick either. (Fisher wanted Cutler, who probably should have been the #1 overall pick and would still be in Tenn. which would be a better team right now than they are).

Broncos fans are all too familiar with what happens if you have an IMBECILE doing the drafting -- as we have the last 2 years, and you take Knowshon Moreno instead of Brian Orakpo, then throw away ANOTHER first round pick to grab Alphonso Smith! And then spend yet another 1st rounder on a project like Ayers!

NOTHING can compensate for utter stupidity! But, that doesn't disprove that having top draft picks HELPS! It gives you the BEST CHANCE to succeed. The higher the better!

And, right now, with the team having almost NO talent, and desperate need at almost every position, winning a meaningless game in December to finish a losing season, is NOT more important than getting a higher draft pick that will help the team for the next 10 seasons! Period! :coffee:

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 10:31 PM
You picked the example, not me! If Luck for instance happens to be the next Manning, do you really believe that Broncos fans won't remember that a couple of meaningless games in December 2010 cost them the chance at multiple SBs?

The Chargers are still waiting 11 years later for their chance!

Draft position matters a LOT! :coffee:

Ironically, the Chargers drafted a SB winning QB.

At pick #32.

Hey... you picked the example... not me.

WARHORSE
12-29-2010, 10:32 PM
Even if we lose, we can fall no farther than the fourth pick.

We have the easiest strenth of schedule of all the teams currently slated to draft in the top ten.


If we win and both Cincy and Buffalo lose, then we draft fourth. If either of those two teams win, we draft third. If we win and both of them win, we still draft second.

Hopefully a QB prospect steps up and wows everyone if Luck stays in school.....which Im starting to think he will.

Cincy plays the Ravens and the Bills play the Jets. Coach Rex Ryan has already said the starters will not play the whole game.

Carson Palmer is 9-3 against the Ravens in his career


http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/12/27/1897941/2011-nfl-draft-order-still-largely-up-for-grabs

zbeg
12-29-2010, 10:33 PM
First off there are 3, not 2. Fairley, Bowers, Dareus. Second, most mock drafts I have seen also have AJ Green and Robert Quinn going in the top 5. If that happens, at least one of those 3 d-linemen will fall to us if not 2. I would be shocked if they were all gone by 5. I just don't see that as a realistic scenario. Even if we win, we will still be able to get one of those d-linemen, and for a cheaper price.

This is assuming Luck comes out, which is not a given. And Dareus is not as much of a sure thing as the other two.

Even if Dareus is only slightly worse than the other two, there is no benefit to beating the Chargers. You gain nothing, other than fuzzy feelings. Why would you not take the course of action that gives you the most access to the best player available on draft day when the cost of doing so is essentially zero?

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 10:33 PM
You're STILL throwing out B.S. arguments! JaMarcus Russell? That was because Al Davis is senile! If you SCREW up your chances then you get stuck with JaMarcus Russell instead Adrian Peterson -- because there WERE no QBs to take in 2007 (the next one taken was Brady Quinn). So, they reached. :coffee:

Similarly, nobody aside from the Titans owner thought Vince Young was worth the #1 pick either. (Fisher wanted Cutler, who probably should have been the #1 overall pick and would still be in Tenn. which would be a better team right now than they are).

So you're saying now that if all of the players in a draft kinda stink... well, you're screwed either way? Regardless of where you pick?

You can't say that if it weren't for the Titans picking Vince, Cutler would have gone #1. Cutler was available at 11.

BroncoWave
12-29-2010, 10:34 PM
This is assuming Luck comes out, which is not a given. And Dareus is not as much of a sure thing as the other two.

Even if Dareus is only slightly worse than the other two, there is no benefit to beating the Chargers. You gain nothing, other than fuzzy feelings. Why would you not take the course of action that gives you the most access to the best player available on draft day when the cost of doing so is essentially zero?

Because just as good a player will probably still be there at 5 and will be cheaper.

Cugel
12-29-2010, 10:43 PM
The Broncos aren't getting Luck win or lose, so I don't see why you are so hung up on him.

Probably that's true with the Broncos stuck at #2. Tim Tebow is probably as good a prospect as Cam Newton, and they already have Tebow so why bother to draft Newton?

But, the new GM and coach will determine Tebow's fate. NOT the fans!


3. Denver Broncos -- Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas (http://www.draftace.com/index.htm)

Anyone who thinks Tim Tebow is still the quarterback of the future in Denver is lying to themselves. Tebow was Josh McDaniels project, and it's unlikely that their new coach will feel the same way. Kyle Orton is a capable starter, but he isn't someone to build around. Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker and Cam Newton could all be reasonable options here. As of now, I believe Mallett is the most NFL-ready and will be the most highly regarded of the three by most organizations.

I DON'T happen to agree with this argument, but it's worth mentioning for the badly needed slap in the face!

Tebow's future in Denver is NOT assured because he played generally well against the 31st worst defense in football in the 2nd half of a meaningless game in December.

Whether all the Tebow-heads like it or not, the new coach and GM are going to come in and decide whether they want to keep Tebow and risk their careers on his being a franchise QB -- or whether they want Cam Newton or Ryan Mallett!

And fan outrage is NOT going to matter any more than it did when McDaniels traded Cutler and brought in Orton! :coffee:

But, if by some miracle, Luck falls to #2 to the Broncos, then you'd better believe that Tebow will be GONE! Some team might very well give a 2nd rounder for him after all. That would still give Denver two picks in the top 45 or so, which would be enough to start rebuilding the defense.

Most NFL coaches and GMs would rather stake their careers on Andrew Luck than Tim Tebow -- regardless of how excited the fans get over a couple of meaningless games against not very good teams. :coffee:

zbeg
12-29-2010, 10:44 PM
Even if we lose, we can fall no farther than the fourth pick.

We have the easiest strenth of schedule of all the teams currently slated to draft in the top ten.


http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/12/27/1897941/2011-nfl-draft-order-still-largely-up-for-grabs

Wait, don't the Broncos draft fifth if:

#1 Panthers (irrelevant)
#2 Cinci loses (4-12)
#3 Buffalo loses (4-12)
Denver wins (5-11)
Arizona loses (5-11)

Arizona currently has a SOS of .458, Denver's SOS is .508. The percentages will change a little over the last weekend, but Arizona still finishes ahead of Denver in the SOS department, giving the Broncos the #5 pick.

Did I make a mistake somewhere?

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 10:46 PM
QBs the last decade

Stafford #1
Sanchez #5
Freeman #17

Ryan #3
Flacco #18

Russell #1
Quinn #22
Kolb #36

Young #3
Leinart #10
Cutler #11

Smith #1
Rodgers #24
Campbell #25
Orton #106
Cassell #230

Manning #1
Rivers #4
Roethlisberger #11
Schaub #90

Palmer #1
Leftwich #7
Boller #19
Grossman #22

Carr #1
Harrington #3
Ramsey #32
Garrard #108

Vick #1
Brees #32

Pennington #18
Bulger #168
Brady #199


Picking high does not guarantee success.

Tned
12-29-2010, 10:50 PM
Even if we lose, we can fall no farther than the fourth pick.

We have the easiest strenth of schedule of all the teams currently slated to draft in the top ten.


If we win and both Cincy and Buffalo lose, then we draft fourth. If either of those two teams win, we draft third. If we win and both of them win, we still draft second.

Hopefully a QB prospect steps up and wows everyone if Luck stays in school.....which Im starting to think he will.

Cincy plays the Ravens and the Bills play the Jets. Coach Rex Ryan has already said the starters will not play the whole game.

Carson Palmer is 9-3 against the Ravens in his career


http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/12/27/1897941/2011-nfl-draft-order-still-largely-up-for-grabs

According to Klis, we could fall to 6th:


Draft update.

Lose their final game and the Broncos will have the No. 2 pick in the 2011 draft. Beat the San Diego Chargers on Sunday and the Broncos could fall to No. 6.

In the Broncos' best long- term interest, they should handcuff Tebow from playing his game against the Chargers.

Just kidding.

Sort of. At 4-11, Denver

Read the rest of his scenario here: - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_16954518#ixzz19YzgW5iw

zbeg
12-29-2010, 10:50 PM
QBs the last decade

Stafford #1
Sanchez #5
Freeman #17

Ryan #3
Flacco #18

Russell #1
Quinn #22
Kolb #36

Young #3
Leinart #10
Cutler #11

Smith #1
Rodgers #24
Campbell #25
Orton #106
Cassell #230

Manning #1
Rivers #4
Roethlisberger #11
Schaub #90

Palmer #1
Leftwich #7
Boller #19
Grossman #22

Carr #1
Harrington #3
Ramsey #32
Garrard #108

Vick #1
Brees #32

Pennington #18
Bulger #168
Brady #199


Picking high does not guarantee success.

24 of the 32 players you just listed were taken in the top 32, or the first round (Brees technically the first pick of the second, but with 32 teams now, "top 32" equates to first round reasonably enough).

Correlation does not mean a guarantee. It means there's a correlation. I go back to my cancer example from earlier. If I smoke cigarettes, it's not guaranteed I'll get cancer. But it sure helps my chances, since there's a correlation.

Cugel
12-29-2010, 10:52 PM
Ironically, the Chargers drafted a SB winning QB.

At pick #32.

Hey... you picked the example... not me.

Not for THEIR organization. And they are STILL waiting for that chance. Clearly, their drafts and player acquisition of late hasn't been outstanding while the Saints organization has been. The Saints were ready to take off after YEARS of top 5 draft picks. They just needed a QB. The Broncos are NOT in that position. THEY need absolutely EVERYTHING with NO exceptions! :coffee:

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 10:54 PM
24 of the 32 players you just listed were taken in the top 32, or the first round (Brees technically the first pick of the second, but with 32 teams now, "top 32" equates to first round reasonably enough).

Correlation does not mean a guarantee. It means there's a correlation. I go back to my cancer example from earlier. If I smoke cigarettes, it's not guaranteed I'll get cancer. But it sure helps my chances, since there's a correlation.

We're going to draft in the first round either way, unless we trade down.

5 out of those ten years, you could argue that being the first team to draft a QB got you the best QB... but you'd have to be pushing it a little.

That's if you take Vick over Brees, Stafford over Sanchez and Freeman, and Manning over Rivers and Roethlisberger.

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 10:54 PM
I'm betting the players are going to do their best to win Sunday. If they don't we should trade the whole lot of 'em.

Who wants to be a loser? Raise your hand or post in this thread saying so.

WARHORSE
12-29-2010, 10:56 PM
Wait, don't the Broncos draft fifth if:

#1 Panthers (irrelevant)
#2 Cinci loses (4-12)
#3 Buffalo loses (4-12)
Denver wins (5-11)
Arizona loses (5-11)

Arizona currently has a SOS of .458, Denver's SOS is .508. The percentages will change a little over the last weekend, but Arizona still finishes ahead of Denver in the SOS department, giving the Broncos the #5 pick.

Did I make a mistake somewhere?


According to Klis, we could fall to 6th:



Read the rest of his scenario here: - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_16954518#ixzz19YzgW5iw


You guys are correct....my fail. Ariz and SF have lesser strenths of schedule.

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 10:58 PM
Not for THEIR organization. And they are STILL waiting for that chance. Clearly, their drafts and player acquisition of late hasn't been outstanding while the Saints organization has been. The Saints were ready to take off after YEARS of top 5 draft picks. They just needed a QB. The Broncos are NOT in that position. THEY need absolutely EVERYTHING with NO exceptions! :coffee:

Oh, so then clearly Brees sucks and was a bad pick outside of the top five.

That logic makes perfect sense.

Cugel
12-29-2010, 11:00 PM
"Picking high does not guarantee success."

Since when are there any guarantees in life? It gives you a better chance. :coffee:

And picking high doesn't negate bad luck or stupidity. Which explains quite a few of the more prominent draft busts of recent years. Any more "department of the obvious" to offer there? :coffee:

But to say that it doesn't matter is flatly contradicted by the FACTS! Statistically, it DOES matter a LOT!

Which is why the top draft pick is worth 3000 points, and the #10 pick is worth 1300, while the 31st pick is only worth 600.

That chart is simply the AVERAGE of what NFL teams historically have had to give up to move up in the draft from one pick to another, mathematically rendered into a numerical system.

There's a REASON why higher is better, and it's because having more choices maximizes your chances of getting the best players. IF you make the right choice.

If you are an idiot like McDaniels or have senile dementia like Al Davis nothing can save you and it doesn't matter if you have the #1 or #31 pick. :coffee:

zbeg
12-29-2010, 11:00 PM
I'm betting the players are going to do their best to win Sunday. If they don't we should trade the whole lot of 'em.

Who wants to be a loser? Raise your hand or post in this thread saying so.

I'm happy to trade a win in a meaningless game today to increase my chances at many more wins later.

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 11:07 PM
Since when are there any guarantees in life? It gives you a better chance. :coffee:

And picking high doesn't negate bad luck or stupidity. Which explains quite a few of the more prominent draft busts of recent years. Any more "department of the obvious" to offer there? :coffee:

But to say that it doesn't matter is flatly contradicted by the FACTS! Statistically, it DOES matter a LOT!

Which is why the top draft pick is worth 3000 points, and the #10 pick is worth 1300, while the 31st pick is only worth 600.

That chart is simply the AVERAGE of what NFL teams historically have had to give up to move up in the draft from one pick to another, mathematically rendered into a numerical system.

There's a REASON why higher is better, and it's because having more choices maximizes your chances of getting the best players. IF you make the right choice.

If you are an idiot like McDaniels or have senile dementia like Al Davis nothing can save you and it doesn't matter if you have the #1 or #31 pick. :coffee:

You're the one that claimed the only way to be good long term was to pick high. On that list I showed, how many years would you say that picking high helped the teams making the pick? I can pick 5 out of the ten, but it's pushing it.

So at best... 50%.

Good players are available after #2. There's a good chance that we'll still get a great player at wherever we end up drafting by winning. It's a crap shoot either way, and I'll take a crap shoot and a win over a crap shoot and a loss.

If the choice was #6 or #10, would you be screaming about how the only way we'd ever be good was if we drafted at #6?

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 11:07 PM
I'm happy to trade a win in a meaningless game today to increase my chances at many more wins later.

Don't count your eggs before they hatch. Are you that confident that whoever ends up being the one that decides who to pick will pick the "right" one?

I would rather win, I just don't see where it will matter either way what place we draft at.

Cugel
12-29-2010, 11:13 PM
Oh, so then clearly Brees sucks and was a bad pick outside of the top five.

That logic makes perfect sense.

No. They got unusually lucky. Sometimes people hit the lotto too. Does that mean you go out and buy thousands of lotto tickets with your pay? :coffee:

Normally, 2nd round or later QBs are NOT that great!

2009:

#1 pick Matt Stafford
2nd round? Pat White!

2008:

#3 pick Matt Ryan

2nd round? Brian Brohme or Chad Henne!

In 2007 there was NOBODY:

1st round:

JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn

2nd round:

Kevin Kolb, John Beck or Drew Stanton

In 2006: You could have drafted Cutler instead of Vince Young #1 overall (as Jeff Fisher wanted to do).

But in the 2nd round? Kellen Clemmens or Tavaris Jackson. :coffee:

And in 2005, you got lucky if you got Aaron Rogers at #24, but the QBs taken after him?

Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, and, wait for it. . . . Kyle Orton. :coffee:

Your chances of picking up a Picasso at a garage sale or winning the $50 million powerball lotto are about as good as finding a franchise QB in the 2nd or later rounds.

I rest my case! :coffee:

zbeg
12-29-2010, 11:14 PM
Don't count your eggs before they hatch. Are you that confident that whoever ends up being the one that decides who to pick will pick the "right" one?

I would rather win, I just don't see where it will matter either way what place we draft at.

That's why I said it would increase my chances. Higher draft picks = higher chance of success. I'm trading a useless resource this season (a win that makes the difference between 4-12 and 5-11) in order to maximize my chances at getting more valuable resources later (a better player who will in turn help the team win more). This seems like a no-brainer - winning this game against the Chargers has negative long-term value for the franchise. It is actively bad.

You can hope that maybe the Broncos get lucky anyway, but the bottom line is winning the game this weekend is hurting Denver's chances down the road.

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 11:15 PM
No. They got unusually lucky. Sometimes people hit the lotto too. Does that mean you go out and buy thousands of lotto tickets with your pay? :coffee:

Normally, 2nd round or later QBs are NOT that great!

2009:

#1 pick Matt Stafford
2nd round? Pat White!

2008:

#3 pick Matt Ryan

2nd round? Brian Brohme or Chad Henne!

In 2007 there was NOBODY:

1st round:

JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn

2nd round:

Kevin Kolb, John Beck or Drew Stanton

In 2006: You could have drafted Cutler instead of Vince Young #1 overall (as Jeff Fisher wanted to do).

But in the 2nd round? Kellen Clemmens or Tavaris Jackson. :coffee:

And in 2005, you got lucky if you got Aaron Rogers at #24, but the QBs taken after him?

Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, and, wait for it. . . . Kyle Orton. :coffee:

I rest my case! :coffee:

Ok... so was the discussion whether we should pick in the first round or the second round, or was it would we rather take a win and risk moving at most 4 draft slots?

Cugel
12-29-2010, 11:18 PM
Don't count your eggs before they hatch. Are you that confident that whoever ends up being the one that decides who to pick will pick the "right" one?

I would rather win, I just don't see where it will matter either way what place we draft at.

You fail to see the obvious, more like! You should have an Ophthalmologist have a look at that seeing eyeball of yours because it needs cataract surgery! :laugh:

Buff
12-29-2010, 11:18 PM
You're the one that claimed the only way to be good long term was to pick high. On that list I showed, how many years would you say that picking high helped the teams making the pick? I can pick 5 out of the ten, but it's pushing it.

So at best... 50%.

Good players are available after #2. There's a good chance that we'll still get a great player at wherever we end up drafting by winning. It's a crap shoot either way, and I'll take a crap shoot and a win over a crap shoot and a loss.

If the choice was #6 or #10, would you be screaming about how the only way we'd ever be good was if we drafted at #6?

The casual fan looks at it and says, "Number 2, #6, #10, what's the big difference? We'll still get a good player." And that's partially true... But for NFL guys who do this for a living the difference between #2 and #10 is enormous. The draft chart difference between #2 and #6 is 2,600 points vs. 1,600 points (1,000). The difference between #6 and #10 (1,300) is only 300 value points.

I know that doesn't always translate to an exact science, but as far as scouts and GM types are concerned, there is a gigantic chasm.

Like I said in another thread, it can mean the difference between getting the best defensive player and the 4th best defensive player... How in the world does one meaningless win against San Diego compensate for such a potential downgrade in talent?

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 11:21 PM
That's why I said it would increase my chances. Higher draft picks = higher chance of success. I'm trading a useless resource this season (a win that makes the difference between 4-12 and 5-11) in order to maximize my chances at getting more valuable resources later (a better player who will in turn help the team win more). This seems like a no-brainer - winning this game against the Chargers has negative long-term value for the franchise. It is actively bad.

You can hope that maybe the Broncos get lucky anyway, but the bottom line is winning the game this weekend is hurting Denver's chances down the road.

I'm not hoping they get lucky, I just hope they win on Sunday. I don't look at wins as useless resources. I look at wins as successes rather than failures which is what a lose is. The draft placement is going to be what it is win or lose and there is nothing I nor anyone can do except the players.

We can argue six ways to Sunday and none of it matters one iota. I would rather my teams wins, you would rather your team loses. I got that, I know where you stand... you stand with losing.

Who is it that you think this loss is going to bring that will save us anyway? Which player or players do you think we will bring in from the draft as a result of this win that's going to save the Broncos?

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 11:22 PM
You fail to see the obvious, more like! You should have an Ophthalmologist have a look at that seeing eyeball of yours because it needs cataract surgery! :laugh:

We don't see eye to eye obviously. I think you should go see a shrink for wanting to be a loser. :lol:

Buff
12-29-2010, 11:25 PM
We can argue six ways to Sunday and none of it matters one iota. I would rather my teams wins, you would rather your team loses. I got that, I know where you stand... you stand with losing.

That's a disingenuous and snarky position to take. At the end of the day we all want to win.

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 11:26 PM
That's a disingenuous and snarky position to take. At the end of the day we all want to win.

Sometimes. ;)

Cugel
12-29-2010, 11:28 PM
Ok... so was the discussion whether we should pick in the first round or the second round, or was it would we rather take a win and risk moving at most 4 draft slots?

Every time anybody mentions that having a top draft pick is critical to finding success some fool points out "but Drew Brees was drafted #31! So that proves you can find talent later in the draft!" :coffee:

Yeah, but the odds aren't that tip top. And they are at the top of the draft. Period. :coffee:

And YES! It DOES matter whether the team drafts 2nd or 6th! That's a difference of 1000 points on the draft chart! (2600 versus 1600)!

For instance, IF the Broncos were able to trade down just 4 spots to someone who really wanted Newton for instance, and realized that he wouldn't be there at #6, that would be worth an extra 1st round draft pick!

Just those 4 places between #2 and #6!

In fact, the difference between #1 and #4 in 2004 was worth the 12th pick in the 2005 draft (from the Giants) which turned out to be Shawne Merriman (who went on to be the NFL defensive player of the year for them).

Just ask yourself how much that #2 pick would be worth if for some reason the Panthers DON'T take Luck at #1 (deciding to stick with Clausen) and teams (realizing that the Broncos are willing to trade their #2 pick) decide NOT to pay the exorbitant price the Panthers want for the #1 pick, and the Panthers take Bowers instead at #1 (they could really use him)! (Could happen).

But, like a fool, you'd rather have an utterly meaningless win in December and throw all that away! :coffee:

LordTrychon
12-29-2010, 11:30 PM
Every time anybody mentions that having a top draft pick is critical to finding success some fool points out "but Drew Brees was drafted #31! So that proves you can find talent later in the draft!" :coffee:

Yeah, but the odds aren't that tip top. And they are at the top of the draft. Period. :coffee:

And YES! It DOES matter whether the team drafts 2nd or 6th! That's a difference of 1000 points on the draft chart! (2600 versus 1600)!

For instance, IF the Broncos were able to trade down to someone who really wanted Newton for instance, that would be worth an extra 1st round draft pick!

Just those 4 places between #2 and #6!

In fact, the difference between #1 and #4 in 2004 was worth the 12th pick in the 2005 draft (from the Giants) which turned out to be Shawne Merriman (who went on to be the NFL defensive player of the year for them).

And therein lies the issue with the draft value chart. It shows the rough value of how teams trade draft picks. It doesn't actually mean talent.

Would you take the talent only of Rivers and Merriman (forgetting how much we hate them both) or the talent only of Eli Manning?

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 11:32 PM
That's a disingenuous and snarky position to take. At the end of the day we all want to win.

I think you are pointing the fingers back at yourself.

I meant every word buff and if we all want to win why then is this thread as large as it is with so many posts saying "I want us to lose Sunday"

Buff
12-29-2010, 11:38 PM
I think you are pointing the fingers back at yourself.

I meant every word buff and if we all want to win why then is this thread as large as it is with so many posts saying "I want us to lose Sunday"

I'm just saying that this is not a black/white argument like you're trying to make it. There are obviously some nuanced positions on both sides.

No one wants to lose... But we want the #2 pick more than we want a win on Sunday, so if forced to choose between the two we'd rather endure a painful loss in the short term with the idea that we'll gain more rewarding wins down the road as a result.

You are being disingenuous to try and take the moral high ground like you are a winner and we are losers.

Day1BroncoFan
12-29-2010, 11:40 PM
I'm just saying that this is not a black/white argument like you're trying to make it. There are obviously some nuanced positions on both sides.

No one wants to lose... But we want the #2 pick more than we want a win on Sunday, so if forced to choose between the two we'd rather endure a painful loss in the short term with the idea that we'll gain more rewarding wins down the road as a result.

You are being disingenuous to try and take the moral high ground like you are a winner and we are losers.

So, what player or players are we going to get if we lose on Sunday that will save the Broncos? Who in the draft will we get that makes it so worth it to lose?

Buff
12-29-2010, 11:48 PM
So, what player or players are we going to get if we lose on Sunday that will save the Broncos? Who in the draft will we get that makes it so worth it to lose?

Well, just as a hypothetical but very possibly situation, say De'Quan Bowers, Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus are the top three defensive lineman on our board (As they are on many teams no doubt). And the scouts say there is a dropoff in talent after those three players. (Again, hypothetical since I'm not qualified to scout every player - you could probably toss in Robert Quinn as a 4th).

If we're picking at #5/#6, and all three or four of those players come off the board in front of us, then what have we really gained by winning against San Diego? We've just cost ourselves a chance at filling a position of need and improving the team for a meaningless feel-good win that does nothing to help the team make the postseason.

zbeg
12-29-2010, 11:51 PM
We can argue six ways to Sunday and none of it matters one iota. I would rather my teams wins, you would rather your team loses. I got that, I know where you stand... you stand with losing.


Oh please, spare me the holier than thou BS.

Losing now costs us a chance to draft a better player which hurts our chances of winning the Super Bowl. I would rather my teams win the Super Bowl, you would rather your team never get there. I got that, I know where you stand... you stand with not wanting the Broncos to win another Super Bowl ever again. Why do you hate the Broncos so much that you don't want them to win another championship?

See how ridiculous that is?

BeefStew25
12-29-2010, 11:58 PM
zbeg is the poor mans G$.

zbeg
12-30-2010, 12:03 AM
zbeg is the poor mans G$.

I have no idea if I should feel complimented or insulted by this. :P

BeefStew25
12-30-2010, 12:05 AM
I have no idea if I should feel complimented or insulted by this. :P

Giant compliment. Just keep your head down and keep working. You are like Bey Bey. G$ is Rod Smith. Please him and you will be fine.

TXBRONC
12-30-2010, 12:06 AM
I have no idea if I should feel complimented or insulted by this. :P

I think it's compliment. At the very least be thankful he's not trying to seduce you.

jhildebrand
12-30-2010, 12:07 AM
Oh please, spare me the holier than thou BS.

Losing now costs us a chance to draft a better player which hurts our chances of winning the Super Bowl. I would rather my teams win the Super Bowl, you would rather your team never get there. I got that, I know where you stand... you stand with not wanting the Broncos to win another Super Bowl ever again. Why do you hate the Broncos so much that you don't want them to win another championship?

See how ridiculous that is?

Losing now costs us that chance or winning? :confused: I think you meant winning costs us a chance at a better player.

Benetto
12-30-2010, 12:08 AM
This is a loaded question. I personally feel as though the value between the #2 pick and the #6 pick is a tremendous difference, as the value of our last game is completely meaningless. So I can bear to see my boys lose to the Chargers so we have a better chance of more draft picks, or a chance to draft the best or second to best player out of the draft....We've lost to the chargers enough lately, it wont hurt to lose one more completely meaningless game, to help our cause.

jhildebrand
12-30-2010, 12:20 AM
SD paid a steep price to step up and draft Ryan Matthews last year-it didn't help that Matthews didn't pan out as expected :D I think SD will be doing their best to improve their draft position. AJ is smart. He knows a mid round to later first round pick could be huge for his team especially if they want to target a WR to pair with VJ or to make him expendable.

That said, for me...I would rather see this team win. It is too hard to change a culture once it has set in. Ending the season with consecutive victories, the only consecutive victories from this year would be huge.

LordTrychon
12-30-2010, 01:59 AM
I will say that after I left work, and got to thinking about it...

If you could GUARANTEE me that we would trade down from the #2 spot, and get the proper value, as valued by the misguided value chart... I would definitely have to think much harder about this. A low first round pick or high second round pick... TWO shots at getting good players, as opposed to One shot, just valued slightly differently...

That's a different matter.

BUT.... you cannot guarantee me that. Nobody can. There are no guarantees on draft day.

Elevation inc
12-30-2010, 02:08 AM
Listening to the Radio today.

Sandy Clough said that all the Broncos personel he has talked to at Dove Valley expect to trade down.

I want them to take the top talent they can get...
but Clough said he fully expects the Broncos to trade their high #1...
for a low #1 and an extra #2.

He also expects, from what he heard from his Bronco sources, that Orton will be traded as well...
for as much as maybe two late round picks.

Clough said the mindset at Dove Valley is that we need to increase the number of players chosen for defense...
having only 6 picks wont get it done.

If we could get two for Orton... and turn the 1st into 2 picks...
we'd be able to draft 9 players.

That is the scuttlebutt on the radio today.

______________________________
and...

if we win... we may not drop far anyway...

maybe we win and still have the #3 or #4 pick...

#5 aint even that bad... especially if we just trade down anyway.


this is exactly it there are plenty of high impact first rd defensive players this draft especially at DE....getting a extra 2nd rd pick, plus a later 1st rd pick only gives us better help with upgrading the defense.....rumor also has the orton tarde could net us a 3rd and 4th rd pick which is very viable....

so in that scenario

we would have

1
2
2
2
3
3
4
6
7

thats a pretty nice looking selection of draft picks especially since our 3rd rd pick is almost like a late 2nd rd pick.....thats 5 very good impact picks for defense there.....a DE/NT/LB/CB/S etc.....


legit front seven prospects abound throughout the first rd and even into the second rd

Guys like Marcel Dareus, JJ watt, Cameron Jordan, Adrian Clayborn, Ryan Kerrigan, Jared Crick all these guys would help our DL....

Day1BroncoFan
12-30-2010, 01:11 PM
Oh please, spare me the holier than thou BS.

Losing now costs us a chance to draft a better player which hurts our chances of winning the Super Bowl. I would rather my teams win the Super Bowl, you would rather your team never get there. I got that, I know where you stand... you stand with not wanting the Broncos to win another Super Bowl ever again. Why do you hate the Broncos so much that you don't want them to win another championship?

See how ridiculous that is?

Yes I do and I also see how ridiculous wanting them to lose is also. Don't you? I guess not.

We're not talking about superbowls here, we're talking about 1 game vs wqhat draft picks we might get if we lose, big, big, big difference.

Of course I want them to win another superbowl, I just don't agree that losing on Sunday is the road to win it.


I'm just saying that this is not a black/white argument like you're trying to make it. There are obviously some nuanced positions on both sides.

No one wants to lose... But we want the #2 pick more than we want a win on Sunday, so if forced to choose between the two we'd rather endure a painful loss in the short term with the idea that we'll gain more rewarding wins down the road as a result.

You are being disingenuous to try and take the moral high ground like you are a winner and we are losers.

The fact is most of you guys don't know for sure this will even help us. I know a win on Sunday will help this team, especially the ones that stay next season.

Traveler
12-30-2010, 01:13 PM
Ok, moment of truth. No longer a 7-9 or number 1 pick.

If the Broncos lose this weekend they will have the #2 pick in the upcoming draft. If they win, they could drop to #6.

Is one meaningless win at the end of the year worth dropping four spots in the draft. Assuming Luck comes out and Carolina picks him, at two the Broncos will be able to pick the best defensive player. Is a win Sunday worth possibly giving that up?

;)Moot point. We are gonna lose anyway.:D

Day1BroncoFan
12-30-2010, 01:16 PM
That's another thing, we probably will lose so we'll all be able to find out how much good these theoretical picks turn out to do for us.

nevcraw
12-30-2010, 01:29 PM
win - let the picks fall where they may..

The Glue Factory
12-30-2010, 02:01 PM
I don't think this would be a meaningless loss as it would mean no team has never lost 12 or more games. I want to keep that vaunted accolade as the ONLY team in the NFL to have never lost 12 or more games.

Buff
12-30-2010, 02:03 PM
The fact is most of you guys don't know for sure this will even help us. I know a win on Sunday will help this team, especially the ones that stay next season.

I would argue the exact opposite. The #2 pick always helps you, whereas a win with no playoff implications does nothing for us.

Day1BroncoFan
12-30-2010, 02:12 PM
I would argue the exact opposite. The #2 pick always helps you, whereas a win with no playoff implications does nothing for us.

A #2 pick always helps you? How many #2 picks have been a bust?

Going into the off season with a win does more for the team and the fans than losing. The players that stay will have a much better time knowing they won the last two in a row instead of losing 6 of the last 8 games.

There is really no point in losing as far as I am concerned or wanting my team to lose either for that matter.

WARHORSE
12-30-2010, 02:58 PM
You need a trade partner to move down.

Thats why I want Cam Newton to light it up in the NCG and at the combine/proday workouts/interviews, etc.

Who wants Cam Newton?

Would anyone trade up for Bowers when Quinn is available or vice versa?


I get the feeling that once Quinn works out for everyone, he may end up being rated higher than Bowers.

If Luck is not available, can Carolina pass on Julius Peppers 2.0?

Its amazing the similarities between Quinn and Peppers.

Both from Carolina. Both run sub 4.4 forties.....but Quinn has more of a motor while Peppers was bigger/taller.


While AJ Green has got to look enticing to Carolina, I cant see that they would use the pick on him.

If Luck does not come out.............Id hate to be in Carolinas position.

sneakers
12-30-2010, 04:47 PM
I wanna beat the chargers!!

Ravage!!!
12-30-2010, 04:54 PM
The fact is most of you guys don't know for sure this will even help us. I know a win on Sunday will help this team, especially the ones that stay next season.

How does a win help us? Please don't tell me its confidence going into next season, that starts another 9 months from now. HOW does the win on Sunday help us compared to a loss? We know the loss will actually move us in a direction that can be charted as to how it helps.. the "helping" win is purely speculative, at best.

Your sentence should read the other way if you want to use facts. We KNOW that a loss will help us, and you don't know for sure if a win would since there is no way to even guess at how it would do so.

WARHORSE
12-30-2010, 05:52 PM
I predict a win, but wont cry over a loss.....especially if Tebow and Demaryius hook up a couple of long ones.:salute:

Day1BroncoFan
12-30-2010, 06:55 PM
How does a win help us? Please don't tell me its confidence going into next season, that starts another 9 months from now. HOW does the win on Sunday help us compared to a loss? We know the loss will actually move us in a direction that can be charted as to how it helps.. the "helping" win is purely speculative, at best.

Your sentence should read the other way if you want to use facts. We KNOW that a loss will help us, and you don't know for sure if a win would since there is no way to even guess at how it would do so.

Seems to me the whole "what we might get if we lose draft spot" is speculation because no one even knows who we'll get. We don't even know who's going to pick these draft positions yet, to me that is speculation.

Care to speculate on exactly who we'll draft or better, who is going to pick the players we will draft? Want to tell me that you know for a fact this is better? Don't tell me you can predict the future because I know you can't.

A wil always helps your esteem and brightens the future and we call brag about it for months to come. The players, I suggest you ask them if they think a win on Sunday would be better for us than a loss.

zbeg
12-30-2010, 06:59 PM
A wil always helps your esteem and brightens the future and we call brag about it for months to come. The players, I suggest you ask them if they think a win on Sunday would be better for us than a loss.

Yeah, can't wait to brag about it for the next few months.

"Hey guys, what's up? Hey, remember when we went 5-11 last year? BY BEATING THE CHARGERS IN A MEANINGLESS GAME AT THE END? OOHHHHHH IN YOUR FACE, SUCK IT WOOP WOOP WOOP! High five! Oooh yeah."

Ravage!!!
12-30-2010, 07:04 PM
Seems to me the whole "what we might get if we lose draft spot" is speculation because no one even knows who we'll get. We don't even know who's going to pick these draft positions yet, to me that is speculation.

Care to speculate on exactly who we'll draft or better, who is going to pick the players we will draft? Want to tell me that you know for a fact this is better? Don't tell me you can predict the future because I know you can't.

A wil always helps your esteem and brightens the future and we call brag about it for months to come. The players, I suggest you ask them if they think a win on Sunday would be better for us than a loss.

All your questions don't matter. We know that the draft is about options. Having a better draft position, gives us more options.... period. Thats not speculative, because by definition of moving up in the draft order, we get more draft OPTIONS. Its a FACT that if we lose, we'll have a better draft position than we would if we win. Again, thats not speculative. Thats how it HELPS the team.

Winning a game, in a meaningless game, doesn't build momentum or helps 'esteem.' Not when there won't be another game for another 9 months. Hard to build up steam with 9 months between plays.

Doesn't matter who is going to be doing the picking, or whatever else you asked. Having more/better options is BETTER than not. An actual tangible difference.

bcbronc
12-30-2010, 07:13 PM
First off there are 3, not 2. Fairley, Bowers, Dareus. Second, most mock drafts I have seen also have AJ Green and Robert Quinn going in the top 5. If that happens, at least one of those 3 d-linemen will fall to us if not 2. I would be shocked if they were all gone by 5. I just don't see that as a realistic scenario. Even if we win, we will still be able to get one of those d-linemen, and for a cheaper price.

you can't see the value in getting to decide which guy we get, rather than settling for the left overs?




Who is it that you think this loss is going to bring that will save us anyway? Which player or players do you think we will bring in from the draft as a result of this win that's going to save the Broncos?

but it's not just one player. it's also the 2nd pick of the 2nd round, instead of the 5th. same with 3rd round, etc. The 2nd round especially could make a big difference as far as DL goes.

end of the day, winning games in the regular season ISN'T the goal. Winning games in the post-season is. Yes, winning games in the regular season is necessary before you have a chance at what really matters, but we're already in next season mode. During the actual game, I'll be cheering for the Broncos to win. But before and after, I'm in draft mode.

another bonus, a Chargers win would give them a 9-7 record, allowing them to hold on to their "greatest team not in the playoffs" title. :lol:

UrbanBounca
12-30-2010, 07:17 PM
Well, either one is fine, IMO. If we lose, we're stuck with Fairly. If we win, we have a shot at Patrick Peterson. I'm happy with either of them.

Day1BroncoFan
12-30-2010, 07:26 PM
All your questions don't matter. We know that the draft is about options. Having a better draft position, gives us more options.... period. Thats not speculative, because by definition of moving up in the draft order, we get more draft OPTIONS. Its a FACT that if we lose, we'll have a better draft position than we would if we win. Again, thats not speculative. Thats how it HELPS the team.

Winning a game, in a meaningless game, doesn't build momentum or helps 'esteem.' Not when there won't be another game for another 9 months. Hard to build up steam with 9 months between plays.

Doesn't matter who is going to be doing the picking, or whatever else you asked. Having more/better options is BETTER than not. An actual tangible difference.

Speculation when you don't know if it will be better or not no matter how you say it. Winning is not speculation and you can't make it be either. Getting a higher draft position or more draft choices may not be speculation but who we will draft and how much good they will or will not be is pure speculation. It is also pure speculation as to who is even going to pick at those draft positions since we don't know who will be hired yet. Unless you're going to absolutely know those picks will help then it is speculation.

Give me the win on Sunday and you can have your speculative draft choices.

Those are all valid questions that you obviously cannot answer so you dismiss them as invalid.

There is no way you can deny that a win on Sunday is good. Winning a game is not meaningless. We beat a division rival at home to end the season and have a two game streak or, we lose and get no one knows what but it's better... hmm sounds like speculation to me.

atwater27
12-30-2010, 07:46 PM
This is a loaded question. I personally feel as though the value between the #2 pick and the #6 pick is a tremendous difference, as the value of our last game is completely meaningless. So I can bear to see my boys lose to the Chargers so we have a better chance of more draft picks, or a chance to draft the best or second to best player out of the draft....We've lost to the chargers enough lately, it wont hurt to lose one more completely meaningless game, to help our cause.

Exactly.... and to those who are playing the fan police card on this one.....

If we had a chance at the playoffs, or if this was earlier in the year, we would all be saying WIN all the way. With ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO GAIN PERIOD END OF STORY in a win scenario, and a potentially gamebreaking interior defensive lineman which has been our biggest need for a decade or so now the prize of a losing scenario, any person with a true sense of value would say lose all the way.

Day1BroncoFan
12-30-2010, 08:05 PM
atwater27

So you have to give me a negative salute because why? You afraid to quote and discuss?

atwater27
12-30-2010, 08:16 PM
atwater27

So you have to give me a negative salute because why? You afraid to quote and discuss?

I said it was a weak argument. The fan police argument is always weak.

Consider yourself quoted and discussed.

Ravage!!!
12-30-2010, 09:56 PM
Speculation when you don't know if it will be better or not no matter how you say it. Winning is not speculation and you can't make it be either. Getting a higher draft position or more draft choices may not be speculation but who we will draft and how much good they will or will not be is pure speculation. It is also pure speculation as to who is even going to pick at those draft positions since we don't know who will be hired yet. Unless you're going to absolutely know those picks will help then it is speculation.

Give me the win on Sunday and you can have your speculative draft choices.

Those are all valid questions that you obviously cannot answer so you dismiss them as invalid.

There is no way you can deny that a win on Sunday is good. Winning a game is not meaningless. We beat a division rival at home to end the season and have a two game streak or, we lose and get no one knows what but it's better... hmm sounds like speculation to me.

Apparently you don't really understand what you are saying, since your use of speculation doesn't really have a point in the discussion. You might as well tell me that I'm speculating on the weather next week. That doesn't have a thing to do with the discussion either.

Who cares what we guess as to who we get? That has NOTHING to do with the draft choices we gain by losing or lose by winning.

Speculating on what is going to be picked doesn't matter. Getting a #2 is better than a #6. Doesn't matter who I guess we pick, or what I want to pick, or who will be doing the picking. That has NOTHING to do with anything. Because no matter WHO we want to pick, no matter WHO is doing the picking, or no matter WHAT direction we go... we would have THAT option because of our draft position.

Winning gaines NOTHING other than for some to talk smack to another losing team about who won on the last game of the year when both teams aren't going anywhere. Big deal. Pat yourself on the back and thats all you gain. This team won't be the same team next year, won't have the same coaches, won't have the same system, won't have the same players.. and there will be absolutely NO momentum carried 9 months later. This win doesn't gain a single thing other than boost the "rah rah's" of some fans.

SmilinAssasSin27
12-31-2010, 12:01 PM
Unless the new coach is drooling over Bowers, who I don't see as a 3-4 fit at DE, our draft position is meaningless. We can fill our biggest need at #6. We can land a 3-4 DE. Dareus and/or Fairley will be there at #6. So if we want Bowers, we lose. If we want one of the other 2 guys, or Patrick Peterson, we're fine at #6.

Winning this game means Tebow ends w 2 straight wins, one of which is over hated San Diego. That's good "momentum" to have going into 2011.

TXBRONC
12-31-2010, 02:02 PM
Unless the new coach is drooling over Bowers, who I don't see as a 3-4 fit at DE, our draft position is meaningless. We can fill our biggest need at #6. We can land a 3-4 DE. Dareus and/or Fairley will be there at #6. So if we want Bowers, we lose. If we want one of the other 2 guys, or Patrick Peterson, we're fine at #6.

Winning this game means Tebow ends w 2 straight wins, one of which is over hated San Diego. That's good "momentum" to have going into 2011.

I think our biggest need is nose tackle if we stay with 3-4 when the new coach comes in and defensive end is a close 2nd.

zbeg
12-31-2010, 02:44 PM
Unless the new coach is drooling over Bowers, who I don't see as a 3-4 fit at DE, our draft position is meaningless. We can fill our biggest need at #6.

The Broncos also get picks in subsequent rounds. It's not just the first rounder that's affected. Also, having a higher pick creates the option of getting more value if the Broncos trade down.

So our draft position is certainly not meaningless.

atwater27
12-31-2010, 03:39 PM
Screw the 3-4. All teams should have multiple packages anyways. Draft best available.

Apollo
12-31-2010, 08:28 PM
Winning gaines NOTHING other than for some to talk smack to another losing team about who won on the last game of the year when both teams aren't going anywhere. Big deal. Pat yourself on the back and thats all you gain. This team won't be the same team next year, won't have the same coaches, won't have the same system, won't have the same players.. and there will be absolutely NO momentum carried 9 months later. This win doesn't gain a single thing other than boost the "rah rah's" of some fans.

I think this is a good post.

It's important to look in the long run. Whoever we draft with the second spot could quite change our team dramatically and be the cause of us beating the Chargers, Chiefs and whoever else to bigger things in the future. I think it's very important we don't win.

I guess some of you out there will say this is unprofessional and not in the spirit of the game, and you'd have a fair point, but this is how I feel.

nevcraw
12-31-2010, 08:51 PM
I think this is a good post.

It's important to look in the long run. Whoever we draft with the second spot could quite change our team dramatically and be the cause of us beating the Chargers, Chiefs and whoever else to bigger things in the future. I think it's very important we don't win.

I guess some of you out there will say this is unprofessional and not in the spirit of the game, and you'd have a fair point, but this is how I feel.

you can draft a game changer a six as well. or not as well..

Apollo
12-31-2010, 10:10 PM
you can draft a game changer a six as well. or not as well..

If the guy we want is not top five material, then holding the second pick gives us the opportunity to gain a lot trading down.

We've got an opportunity to make a franchise changing off-season happen here.

broncophan
12-31-2010, 10:40 PM
i dont root or hope for my team to lose ever..........i just cant do it........but that is just me...

TXBRONC
01-01-2011, 12:55 AM
i dont root or hope for my team to lose ever..........i just cant do it........but that is just me...

I don't either, however if they should I can see a silver lining.

Joel
01-01-2011, 09:21 AM
Easy choice; a meaningless win that has no real impact on the team is rather worthless to me. If we want meaningless wins, see if the League will let us schedule a few games against Notre Dame. A top 5 pick, let alone a #2 pick that would give us anyone we want from this years draft class, is worth a heckuva lot more than a SD win that would give us nothing. It's not like winning our last two will salvage the season, and if Tebows ego is so fragile that one week 17 game against SD will make or break his career he was never going to be great anyway. I'd much rather have a HoF OLB or NT than a win against SD.

Joel
01-01-2011, 09:54 AM
but it's not just one player. it's also the 2nd pick of the 2nd round, instead of the 5th. same with 3rd round, etc. The 2nd round especially could make a big difference as far as DL goes.
Agreed. The #2 pick in each round, plus Miamis second round pick, means 3 of the top 50 and 5 of the top 100 picks. If we do our homework that means 1/16 of the best 50 and 1/20 of the best 100 athletes in this draft class. Top five draft picks are rare and precious opportunities; consider that if we beat the Bolts in a game that means little to either team we'll actually need a season WORSE than this one to get a top five pick. The only good thing about this season will be "earning" a top five pick, the second overall pick unless we screw it up badly, so I don't really want to lose that as well and reduce this to a throwaway season that did nothing but taint the Broncos with Spygate II. And before anyone counters that by telling me Tebow going 2-1 as a starter would PROVE he's the second coming of Otto Graham, please don't bother. I'm giving him the benefit of a doubt, and he's shown some good stuff, but if we point to any season as the one that made him it'll be next year or the one that delivers his first Lombardi.

Speculation when you don't know if it will be better or not no matter how you say it. Winning is not speculation and you can't make it be either. Getting a higher draft position or more draft choices may not be speculation but who we will draft and how much good they will or will not be is pure speculation. It is also pure speculation as to who is even going to pick at those draft positions since we don't know who will be hired yet. Unless you're going to absolutely know those picks will help then it is speculation.

Give me the win on Sunday and you can have your speculative draft choices.

Those are all valid questions that you obviously cannot answer so you dismiss them as invalid.

There is no way you can deny that a win on Sunday is good. Winning a game is not meaningless. We beat a division rival at home to end the season and have a two game streak or, we lose and get no one knows what but it's better... hmm sounds like speculation to me.
No, it's potential: The #2 overall pick is undeniably, nonspeculatively, better than the #5 pick. That's quantifiable fact; that's why people can assign "points" to the value of each pick in every draft, and 2 still comes before 5. Now, the FO may well screw up that choice, and they may not, but it's a matter of fact that if we pick fifth rather than second we will have three less options than we otherwise would, and not randomly selected options, but the consensus choice of the best draft eligible athletes in the third most populous nation on Earth.

What does a SD win offer to offset that less useful draft position in each round? We're 5-11 instead of 4-12; no one outside of Denver cares either way--except for Detroit, Buffalo and Cincinatti, of course. Wanting what they want for us is like saying you wish Holmgren had called our plays in SB XXXII. We hear every year about teams "mortgaging their future" by giving up good draft picks for aging veterans who add little to the team, but even that would help Denver more than giving up the #2 pick, a pick that will give us literally ANYONE we want if Carolina goes QB, just for the deep since of pride we can all share at only blowing 11 games this year. Honestly, if we lose I think our draft position will actually be BETTER than Carolinas; nearly everyone seems to think they'll take a QB we don't need, and they'll have to deal with the hype and salary issues that go with the top overall pick, whereas we can still get the best athlete FOR US in the entire draft, and if he gets greedy be able to say, "look, it's not like you were the #1 pick.... "

Regardless, a SD win is no more than a sop to peoples pride, if you can take pride in 5-11; personally, there's only way that's significantly different from 4-12 in my book: An inferior draft pick in every round. Apart from that 4-12 and 5-11 teams are basically equally garbage, but the former has more tools available change that. That's not speculation at all, it's basic integer math, which is as close to definite as this world gets. Denver fans who turned off SB XXII after the FG that made it 10-0 Denver got a warm and fuzzy feeling that's theirs forever, but what the rest of the world remembers is the 42-10 SF blowout.

Cugel
01-01-2011, 03:39 PM
Agreed. The #2 pick in each round, plus Miamis second round pick, means 3 of the top 50 and 5 of the top 100 picks. If we do our homework that means 1/16 of the best 50 and 1/20 of the best 100 athletes in this draft class. Top five draft picks are rare and precious opportunities; consider that if we beat the Bolts in a game that means little to either team we'll actually need a season WORSE than this one to get a top five pick. The only good thing about this season will be "earning" a top five pick, the second overall pick unless we screw it up badly, so I don't really want to lose that as well and reduce this to a throwaway season that did nothing but taint the Broncos with Spygate II. And before anyone counters that by telling me Tebow going 2-1 as a starter would PROVE he's the second coming of Otto Graham, please don't bother. I'm giving him the benefit of a doubt, and he's shown some good stuff, but if we point to any season as the one that made him it'll be next year or the one that delivers his first Lombardi.

No, it's potential: The #2 overall pick is undeniably, nonspeculatively, better than the #5 pick. That's quantifiable fact; that's why people can assign "points" to the value of each pick in every draft, and 2 still comes before 5. Now, the FO may well screw up that choice, and they may not, but it's a matter of fact that if we pick fifth rather than second we will have three less options than we otherwise would, and not randomly selected options, but the consensus choice of the best draft eligible athletes in the third most populous nation on Earth.

What does a SD win offer to offset that less useful draft position in each round? We're 5-11 instead of 4-12; no one outside of Denver cares either way--except for Detroit, Buffalo and Cincinatti, of course. Wanting what they want for us is like saying you wish Holmgren had called our plays in SB XXXII. We hear every year about teams "mortgaging their future" by giving up good draft picks for aging veterans who add little to the team, but even that would help Denver more than giving up the #2 pick, a pick that will give us literally ANYONE we want if Carolina goes QB, just for the deep since of pride we can all share at only blowing 11 games this year. Honestly, if we lose I think our draft position will actually be BETTER than Carolinas; nearly everyone seems to think they'll take a QB we don't need, and they'll have to deal with the hype and salary issues that go with the top overall pick, whereas we can still get the best athlete FOR US in the entire draft, and if he gets greedy be able to say, "look, it's not like you were the #1 pick.... "

Regardless, a SD win is no more than a sop to peoples pride, if you can take pride in 5-11; personally, there's only way that's significantly different from 4-12 in my book: An inferior draft pick in every round. Apart from that 4-12 and 5-11 teams are basically equally garbage, but the former has more tools available change that. That's not speculation at all, it's basic integer math, which is as close to definite as this world gets. Denver fans who turned off SB XXII after the FG that made it 10-0 Denver got a warm and fuzzy feeling that's theirs forever, but what the rest of the world remembers is the 42-10 SF blowout.

100% accurate!

I think some fans just don't want to use their brains except to hold up their hats. "I always want to see the team win!"

NOT if it hurts the team long-term. And this undeniably does.

#5 IS worse than #2. And picking 3 spots later in EVERY round means losing 21 draft places over the course of the entire draft, not 3!

Apollo
01-02-2011, 04:20 PM
Even right now, it's a really hard one for me to watch. I want us to smash these idiots, but at the same time, doing so undoubtedly hurts our future.

Damn damn damn.

LordTrychon
01-02-2011, 06:45 PM
I can certainly see the silver lining in the loss (probable at this point) as well.

Yes, the #2 pick is undeniably better than the #5 pick.

It does not undeniably make us a better team, and I am certainly not dooming my team to suckitude by rooting for my team to win.

I'll still take the win. You can think to yourself that it means I simply don't comprehend, but you would be wrong.

#2 pick >#5 pick. No doubt.

Is it possible that we could screw up either way? Yes. Is it possible we could get the best player in the draft either way? Yes.

I'll root for my team to win.

Thanks.

DenBronx
01-02-2011, 07:31 PM
well it's now official.


we have the #2 overall pick.

claymore
01-02-2011, 07:37 PM
Man I hope we can get luck.

Elevation inc
01-02-2011, 07:37 PM
#2 pick should be Bowers...period!!!! he has complete scheme versatility, and is a complete and total package against the run and in pass rush....or we trade back

Dean
01-02-2011, 07:48 PM
To compete next year we need so. . so much more talent!

claymore
01-02-2011, 07:48 PM
To compete next year we need so. . so much more talent!

We need like 48 starters.

BigDaddyBronco
01-02-2011, 07:56 PM
#2 pick should be Bowers...period!!!! he has complete scheme versatility, and is a complete and total package against the run and in pass rush....or we trade back

Trade back 3 or 4 spots and take Dareus. He is a beast and has the frame to put on 10-20 lbs and be a Haloti Ngata type either at DE or NT. I like him better than Fairley for the 3-4.

OrangeHoof
01-02-2011, 08:23 PM
I got what I wanted...a solid game from Tebow AND the #2 pick for next year.

EMB6903
01-02-2011, 08:36 PM
ya Bowers is the pick... and the kids a beast.

LordTrychon
01-02-2011, 09:29 PM
Now that we are cemented in our draft spot,I look forward to seeing what we do with it

Better #@#$%ing be defense.

Cugel
01-02-2011, 09:53 PM
Trade back 3 or 4 spots and take Dareus. He is a beast and has the frame to put on 10-20 lbs and be a Haloti Ngata type either at DE or NT. I like him better than Fairley for the 3-4.

Have you any idea how often top 5 picks have been traded in the last 10 years? Almost NEVER! Teams just don't want to give up what it would take to trade up that high.

It never happens AT ALL unless ALL the following are present:

1. A team is absolutely desperate for a franchise QB and see their savior sitting there in the draft.

2. The desperate team KNOWS that said QB will be long gone before they pick -- and more KNOWS that said QB will be gone before ANY OTHER PICK THEY CAN trade to!

3. The desperate team has the picks to move up that high.


Example:

Luck goes #1 to Carolina as expected. Cam Newton is still on the board and some DESPERATE team knows that some OTHER desperate team is targeting him. They also know that the OTHER team is attempting to trade with the Bengals or Bills (whoever picks after Denver). To get Newton, they have to get to #2.

If they want him badly enough, they pull the trigger. If not, they don't.

That's NOT a likely scenario. MORE likely all the teams, knowing that Denver will NEVER take Cam Newton (just thinking about it would cause my head to explode!) so they can target the picks AFTER us!

In short -- for there to be a realistic trade scenario the other team has to be convinced that you intend to take the player they covet, or the team AFTER you wants said player.

In this example, for instance, Cincinnati is no threat to take a QB because they have Carson Palmer. So, teams will target the pick AFTER Cincinnati's because it will cost them less to trade up to that spot.

(Like a game of chicken -- the MOST desperate team might try and move up even higher).

The only way anybody wants Cincinnati's spot is if the team AFTER them wants Newton.

See how unlikely that all is? :coffee:

That's why I can think of only 2 trades in the top 5 in recent years (Chargers #1 (Eli M.) to the Giants for the Giants' #4 (Phillip Rivers) and a 1st round next year (#12 was Shawne Merriman), and the Jets moving up to #4 to draft Mark Sanchez. (Unless I forgot one, that's it).

Ravage!!!
01-02-2011, 11:23 PM
not to mention the cost of points it takes to move to the #2 spot....its a ton