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View Full Version : Debunking The Myth That Orton Only Struggled Because of 3rd and 8+ Situations



vandammage13
12-23-2010, 12:32 PM
This thread has been posted in response to claims that Orton only struggled in third down situations because he constantly faced 3rd and 8+ situations.


That is twice in this thread I have seen remarks about Orton's third down conversions. Documentation was provided right in this forum to show how Orton was faced with a majority of third-and-8+ for most of the season.Then the same documentation showed how even Peyton Manning had a very low conversion rate under the same conditions.....
-----

So you say Orton only has a low conversion rate because he's constantly facing 3rd and 8+...lets see how Orton does on 3rd and 7 (or less) when he passes or runs himself.

--------------------------------------------
Orton vs Cardinals on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd.
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass INTERCEPTED
3rd and 2 - K.Orton sacked for -10 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Graham
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass INTERCEPTED and returned for TD

(AGAINST CARDINALS, ORTON WAS 1/7 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Chiefs on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 13 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to K.Moreno
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd

(AGAINST CHIEFS, ORTON WAS 1/4 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Rams on 3rd and 7 or less:
*There were no 3rd and 7 or less situations in this game that was an all around debacle for the entire team...

Orton vs Chargers on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass intended for J.Gaffney INTERCEPTED
3rd and 3 - K.Orton sacked for -11 yards
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 3 - K.Orton sacked for -7 yards

(AGAINST CHARGERS, ORTON WAS 0/5 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Chiefs on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 4 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 6 - K.Orton screen pass to K.Moreno for 23 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 12 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Graham

(AGAINST CHIEFS, ORTON WAS 4/7 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs 49ers on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 6 - K.Orton sacked for -9 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to D.Gronkowski for 8 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to K.Moreno for 2 yards

(AGAINST 49ERS, ORTON WAS 1/3 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Raiders on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to K.Moreno for 3 yards
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to K.Moreno for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Gronkowski

(AGAINST RAIDERS, ORTON WAS 1/5 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Jets on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 7 - K.Orton runs for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Graham
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 29 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Thomas

(AGAINST JETS, ORTON WAS 3/8 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Ravens on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Gronkowski
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 7 yards (first down)

(AGAINST RAVENS, ORTON WAS 4/6 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Titans on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 6 - K.Orton sacked for -9 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to L.Maroney
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 7 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton sacked for -4 yards
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton sacked for -2 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd

(AGAINST TITANS, ORTON WAS 2/7 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Colts on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass intended for E.Royal INTERCEPTED
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Thomas
3rd and 1 - K.Orton runs for 2 yards (first down)
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 16 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 7 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton runs for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to J.Gaffney for 4 yards

(AGAINST COLTS, ORTON WAS 4/9 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Seahawks on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to J.Gaffney for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 34 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass incomplete to C.Buckhalter
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 13 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to D.Graham for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to J.Gaffney for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas, TOUCHDOWN

(AGAINST SEAHAWKS, ORTON WAS 8/9 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)**FLUKE!!

Orton vs Jaguars on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton sacked for -7 yards
3rd and 4 - K.Orton runs for 5 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd

(AGAINST JAGUARS, ORTON WAS 2/5 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

-----------------------------------------------------------
So, in 15 games, Kyle Orton converted 31/75 3rd and 7 or less for a whopping 41%. Those numbers include a fluke game against the hapless Seahawks where Orton converted 8/9 on 3rd and 7 or less.

To break it down a little more, in our 10 losses, Orton converted 17/52 on 3rd and 7 or less for a paultry 32%.

Orton also threw just 2 TDs and 4 INTs in these 3rd and 7 or less situations.

So, when others say that Orton's 3rd down numbers are skewed because he faced so many 3rd and 8+ situations, it is simply not true. Orton sucked on 3rd down no matter what the distance was.

I know Orton is no longer our starting QB, but I just wanted to set the record straight once and for all with some irrefutable evidence.

BroncoWave
12-23-2010, 12:45 PM
Wait, let me get my popcorn ready...

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:blq-e-aBOQsOqM:http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m198/narcbliss/0653_homer-eating-popcorn-small-c78.jpg&t=1

Ok, proceed!

honz
12-23-2010, 12:51 PM
Topscribe may be a broken man after all of this is done.

Superchop 7
12-23-2010, 01:22 PM
Top is gonna snap.

SOCALORADO.
12-23-2010, 01:25 PM
Top is gonna snap.

http://paulbuckley14059.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/pissed-off.jpg

NightTrainLayne
12-23-2010, 01:25 PM
Let's all try and avoid making Top the subject here. I'm sure others have similar feelings on the subject. The purpose of this board isn't to beat down folks who have different opinions, but for all of us to share and discuss opinions.

Superchop 7
12-23-2010, 01:32 PM
Yeah, I knew from the beginning that he would ride it till the wheels fell off.:deadhorse::deadhorse:

BroncoStud
12-23-2010, 01:46 PM
Great post OP. Just validates the point that most of us have made for the past 2 years. We went from 47.5% conversions in 2008 to now about 32% conversions...

Jay Cutler 100X > Kyle Orton

Kyle's a backup, I'm sure he's done as a Bronco, positive he's done as a starter for the Broncos... It's a good thing, he's just not very good. When you get benched and Rex Grossman leads your roster to a Super Bowl, the writing is on the wall.

Dzone
12-23-2010, 02:06 PM
Not to mention his penchant on 3rd and 10 to run 8 yards and slide

BORDERLINE
12-23-2010, 02:15 PM
We all know Orton is real bad on third downs....

teams that can't convert them usually lose....and we are not the exception

SOCALORADO.
12-23-2010, 02:21 PM
Let's all try and avoid making Top the subject here. I'm sure others have similar feelings on the subject. The purpose of this board isn't to beat down folks who have different opinions, but for all of us to share and discuss opinions.

http://www.beinganewyorkrookie.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Cartman.jpg

BroncoJoe
12-23-2010, 02:23 PM
Ouch.

vandammage13
12-23-2010, 02:25 PM
Just as a bonus.....

When the Broncos decided to go for it on 4th down, Orton was 1/7 converting on 4th and 7 or less when he passed or ran. (The lone conversion was a QB sneak on 4th and 1, so Orton is 0/6 converting on 4th and 7 or less when he passed.)

BroncoStud
12-23-2010, 02:35 PM
It's hard to imagine there are still people who want Kyle Orton to be the starting QB for Denver after being subject to these past two seasons... I don't get it, never will. It's like Stockholm Syndrome... It's been so bad that they've developed an attachment to him.

Either way I have to question their football IQ. Orton is nothing more than a backup in the NFL. He has proven that now with 2 different teams. If he think's his play has warranted a starting role (LOL) then trade his ass to someone desperate enough to put up with his putrid conversion numbers.

camdisco24
12-23-2010, 02:59 PM
Let's all try and avoid making Top the subject here. I'm sure others have similar feelings on the subject. The purpose of this board isn't to beat down folks who have different opinions, but for all of us to share and discuss opinions.

Top is gone as far as I can tell... Last night in another Orton thread he caught a lot of flack... Idk what happened behind the scenes exactly but he said he's not going to post much any more because of something that happened... Its sad when we chase off posters who have different opinions...

BroncoJoe
12-23-2010, 03:00 PM
Top is gone as far as I can tell... Last night in another Orton thread he caught a lot of flack... Idk what happened behind the scenes exactly but he said he's not going to post much any more because of something that happened... Its sad when we chase off posters who have different opinions...

In some cases, yes. Others? Not so much.

BeefStew25
12-23-2010, 03:07 PM
I spoke with Top. He is fine. He is going to take some Geritol and just cool off for a bit.

dogfish
12-23-2010, 03:07 PM
Top is gone as far as I can tell... Last night in another Orton thread he caught a lot of flack... Idk what happened behind the scenes exactly but he said he's not going to post much any more because of something that happened... Its sad when we chase off posters who have different opinions...

he's not gone. . . top used to post big, dramatic "i'm leaving" threads over on mania all the time. . . he always comes back once he cools off a bit. . .

BeefStew25
12-23-2010, 03:09 PM
he's not gone. . . top used to post big, dramatic "i'm leaving" threads over on mania all the time. . . he always comes back once he cools off a bit. . .

He is our meth head.

Northman
12-23-2010, 03:13 PM
Top is gone as far as I can tell... Last night in another Orton thread he caught a lot of flack... Idk what happened behind the scenes exactly but he said he's not going to post much any more because of something that happened... Its sad when we chase off posters who have different opinions...

Everyone takes crap on this board. If a member cant handle it than thats really on them. No one chases anyone off, they just leave on their own.

Juriga72
12-23-2010, 03:13 PM
I think its even more telling that Kyle wasnt counted on for third downs.....

He threw 190 passes on first down
He threw 177 passes on second down

He only threw 120 passes on third down.

You think even McD knew its not smart for him to throw on a down that the defense KNEW he was going to throw on?

DenBronx
12-23-2010, 03:14 PM
Well Orton started out ok but as the season went on he began to suck worse each game. I miss having a clutch QB that you feel you are never out of the game as long as he is on the field.

#7 had that way about him. You always felt even being down two touchdowns in the 4th we still could win.

camdisco24
12-23-2010, 03:16 PM
he's not gone. . . top used to post big, dramatic "i'm leaving" threads over on mania all the time. . . he always comes back once he cools off a bit. . .

haha gotcha... I know he and I went back and fourth a little bit, but it went waaaay downhill after that. I guess everyone has their own way of blowing off steam...

I Eat Staples
12-23-2010, 03:18 PM
Someone has way too much time on their hands.

camdisco24
12-23-2010, 03:18 PM
#7 had that way about him. You always felt even being down two touchdowns in the 4th we still could win.

That's the "it" factor everyone keeps referring to. And thats exactly way Orton lacks...

Lonestar
12-23-2010, 03:20 PM
3-5-DEN 31 (14:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to 19-E.Royal.

3-9-DEN 38 (12:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to 10-J.Gaffney.

3-24-OAK 40 (9:49) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


3-8-OAK 29 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 28 for 1 yard (55-R.McClain, 93-T.Kelly).

3-6-OAK 46 (8:25) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to 19-E.Royal (26-S.Routt).

3-9-DEN 38 (4:04) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 43 for 5 yards (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-8-DEN 5 (9:50) 28-C.Buckhalter right tackle to DEN 5 for no gain (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-12-OAK 24 (5:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow left end pushed ob at OAK 17 for 7 yards (33-T.Branch).

3-6-DEN 40 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to 28-C.Buckhalter.

3-8-OAK 30 (10:51) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 27 for 3 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

3-5-DEN 36 (3:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at DEN 27 for -9 yards (77-M.Shaughnessy).

kinda looks like 1 for 11 in this game, 9% if my math is correct.

0 for 4 on less than 7 yards to go.

Now I like Tebow and think he is the next FQB .

But he is going to have to do better than that to keep his job.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010121912/2010/REG15/broncos@raiders/analyze/box-score#analyze-channels:cat-post-playbyplay

DenBronx
12-23-2010, 03:24 PM
To be fair lets just pretend for a moment Tebow is a rookie QB that had a idiot HC who didnt prepare or play him all season long. When he finally does play our play calling on 3rd down consist of only of very predictable QB draw plays from a interm coach that doesnt have a clue.

vandammage13
12-23-2010, 03:30 PM
3-5-DEN 31 (14:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to 19-E.Royal.

3-9-DEN 38 (12:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to 10-J.Gaffney.

3-24-OAK 40 (9:49) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


3-8-OAK 29 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 28 for 1 yard (55-R.McClain, 93-T.Kelly).

3-6-OAK 46 (8:25) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to 19-E.Royal (26-S.Routt).

3-9-DEN 38 (4:04) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 43 for 5 yards (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-8-DEN 5 (9:50) 28-C.Buckhalter right tackle to DEN 5 for no gain (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-12-OAK 24 (5:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow left end pushed ob at OAK 17 for 7 yards (33-T.Branch).

3-6-DEN 40 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to 28-C.Buckhalter.

3-8-OAK 30 (10:51) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 27 for 3 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

3-5-DEN 36 (3:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at DEN 27 for -9 yards (77-M.Shaughnessy).

kinda looks like 1 for 11 in this game, 9% if my math is correct.

0 for 4 on less than 7 yards to go.

Now I like Tebow and think he is the next FQB .

But he is going to have to do better than that to keep his job.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010121912/2010/REG15/broncos@raiders/analyze/box-score#analyze-channels:cat-post-playbyplay

Thought someone might bring that up, and rightly so...But let's keep things in perspective here, as it was Tebow's first start ever (on the road in a hostile environment/inclement weather, with a makeshift coaching staff featuring an OC calling plays for just the 2nd time). Orton is in his 5th year and has 62 games under his belt, and has been through 2 training camps here getting all the 1st team reps, so more should be expected. If Tebow is still struggling in Year 3 on 3rd down like his first start, then yeah he should be benched too.

BroncoNut
12-23-2010, 04:10 PM
he's not gone. . . top used to post big, dramatic "i'm leaving" threads over on mania all the time. . . he always comes back once he cools off a bit. . .

that is kinda cute when elderly folk do that.

BroncoNut
12-23-2010, 04:11 PM
Someone has way too much time on their hands.

either that, or hands on their time :lol:

GEM
12-23-2010, 04:22 PM
What part of STOP MAKING TOP THE TOPIC did ya'll not get? The guy isn't here to defend himself, enough already. Stick to Orton and his inability to convert 3rd downs.

vandammage13
12-23-2010, 04:24 PM
Someone has way too much time on their hands.

Says the guy with 1,164 posts in 4 months.....:coffee:

I Eat Staples
12-23-2010, 04:25 PM
Says the guy with 1,164 posts in 4 months.....:coffee:

Um, your point?

vandammage13
12-23-2010, 04:26 PM
Um, your point?

I think you got it :cool:

I Eat Staples
12-23-2010, 04:32 PM
I think you got it :cool:

So I guess you're implying that you need a lot of time on your hands to post on a message board while doing other things that require being online?

I try not to assume anyone is stupid, but...

vandammage13
12-23-2010, 04:48 PM
So I guess you're implying that you need a lot of time on your hands to post on a message board while doing other things that require being online?

I try not to assume anyone is stupid, but...

Nope...you did.

I too, try not to assume anyone is stupid, but....

Northman
12-23-2010, 04:52 PM
So how bout Orton and those 3rd downs?

EMB6903
12-23-2010, 04:54 PM
So how bout Orton and those 3rd downs?

Well....Kyle Orton sucks...

and 3rd downs have been a nightmare to Broncos fans both offensively and defensively for the past 5 years now.

honz
12-23-2010, 05:00 PM
I love Tebow.

PAINTERDAVE
12-23-2010, 05:13 PM
To be fair lets just pretend for a moment Tebow is a rookie QB that had a idiot HC who didnt prepare or play him all season long. When he finally does play our play calling on 3rd down consist of only of very predictable QB draw plays from a interm coach that doesnt have a clue.

Yeah... let's pretend....
that he also gets his first start in the Black Hole of Calcutta...
and LIKES it!

Let's pretend that, unlike the guy he unseated,
he ramps up the troops, cheering them on and high fiving them as they come off the field.

Let's pretend that the other players see something in him that inspires them to step up their game...
and then actually beleive they MIGHT win one for a change!

Let's pretend that even though he starts off at a 7 point deficit from the first play of the opponents scrimage...
he goes into the locker room at halftime with the LEAD!

Let's pretend that he does not throw any picks or fumble the ball or bobble a snap...
against a division opponent who dominated them in the last meeting....
despite the fact that EVERYBODY predicted he would!



Yeah.. Let's pretend.

Lonestar
12-23-2010, 05:35 PM
Thought someone might bring that up, and rightly so...But let's keep things in perspective here, as it was Tebow's first start ever (on the road in a hostile environment/inclement weather, with a makeshift coaching staff featuring an OC calling plays for just the 2nd time). Orton is in his 5th year and has 62 games under his belt, and has been through 2 training camps here getting all the 1st team reps, so more should be expected. If Tebow is still struggling in Year 3 on 3rd down like his first start, then yeah he should be benched too.

SO it is OK to have excuses for Tebow but not for Orton,

just wanted to make sure I have this correct.



Well....Kyle Orton sucks...

and 3rd downs have been a nightmare to Broncos fans both offensively and defensively for the past 5 years now.


Your entitled to your Opinion on Orton. No issues with that at all.

as for the past 5 years yeas it has been a problem Since Jake left and EVEN then it has not been stellar since John, TD and the SB oline that retired.

For that matter. there was an article the other day from M lombardi he said something mare articulately than I have been able to for years.


"I am not a big fan of the zone running scheme being employed in Seattle, Washington and Houston. It had its place in the late 90s, and sure individual rushers like Arian Foster this season can have success. But now it has become pretty much obsolete in this sense: When a team running the zone scheme gets behind in the game and the defense knows they have to pass, their offensive line cannot pass protect and they end up getting further behind. The longer the game goes, the lack of size and physical toughness of their line wears down. The entire team becomes soft, and the defense lacks the ability to handle power. The system might have worked back in the day, but being a small offensive line -- or a light line -- does not win when the opponent knows it's a passing game. "

that sums it up pretty well.


BTW let me remind y'all of my stance on tebow.


Now I like Tebow and think he is the next FQB .

But he is going to have to do better than that to keep his job.

BroncoStud
12-23-2010, 05:39 PM
3-5-DEN 31 (14:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to 19-E.Royal.

3-9-DEN 38 (12:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to 10-J.Gaffney.

3-24-OAK 40 (9:49) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


3-8-OAK 29 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 28 for 1 yard (55-R.McClain, 93-T.Kelly).

3-6-OAK 46 (8:25) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to 19-E.Royal (26-S.Routt).

3-9-DEN 38 (4:04) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 43 for 5 yards (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-8-DEN 5 (9:50) 28-C.Buckhalter right tackle to DEN 5 for no gain (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-12-OAK 24 (5:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow left end pushed ob at OAK 17 for 7 yards (33-T.Branch).

3-6-DEN 40 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to 28-C.Buckhalter.

3-8-OAK 30 (10:51) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 27 for 3 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

3-5-DEN 36 (3:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at DEN 27 for -9 yards (77-M.Shaughnessy).

kinda looks like 1 for 11 in this game, 9% if my math is correct.

0 for 4 on less than 7 yards to go.

Now I like Tebow and think he is the next FQB .

But he is going to have to do better than that to keep his job.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010121912/2010/REG15/broncos@raiders/analyze/box-score#analyze-channels:cat-post-playbyplay

It was his first start -- EVER :welcome:

Orton is a 5 year pro...

BroncoWave
12-23-2010, 05:42 PM
SO it is OK to have excuses for Tebow but not for Orton,

just wanted to make sure I have this correct.

Yes, you have that correct. Tebow isn't a 5 year veteran who has started 28 games for the Broncos like Orton has. When Tebow gets to that point we can revisit how he is doing on third downs as compared to Orton.

Elevation inc
12-23-2010, 06:09 PM
3-5-DEN 31 (14:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to 19-E.Royal.

3-9-DEN 38 (12:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to 10-J.Gaffney.

3-24-OAK 40 (9:49) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


3-8-OAK 29 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 28 for 1 yard (55-R.McClain, 93-T.Kelly).

3-6-OAK 46 (8:25) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to 19-E.Royal (26-S.Routt).

3-9-DEN 38 (4:04) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 43 for 5 yards (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-8-DEN 5 (9:50) 28-C.Buckhalter right tackle to DEN 5 for no gain (55-R.McClain; 77-M.Shaughnessy).

3-12-OAK 24 (5:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow left end pushed ob at OAK 17 for 7 yards (33-T.Branch).

3-6-DEN 40 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to 28-C.Buckhalter.

3-8-OAK 30 (10:51) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 27 for 3 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

3-5-DEN 36 (3:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at DEN 27 for -9 yards (77-M.Shaughnessy).

kinda looks like 1 for 11 in this game, 9% if my math is correct.

0 for 4 on less than 7 yards to go.

Now I like Tebow and think he is the next FQB .

But he is going to have to do better than that to keep his job.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010121912/2010/REG15/broncos@raiders/analyze/box-score#analyze-channels:cat-post-playbyplay


that was playcalling more than anything they werent even giving him the right call to try and convert the down, hopefully our playcallers get some cahunas sunday, becasue that conservative crap was BS last week....

but we all know if you cant lead a team, convert on third down or help your team win when you have the perfect oppurtunity to...you wont be a Qb in denver long so tebow does have his work cut out for him for sure.....i hope for the best

Grover
12-23-2010, 06:09 PM
I like Kyle Orton, but I also acknowledge that he's not the best at converting third downs. But his performance doesn't exist in a vacuum. The team has won three games so far this year, there have been injuries to the backfield and offensive line, and players moving in and out of the lineup.

We'll never know what "could have been" if the team were healthy, or if the players surrounding Orton had more experience and/or talent. What would have been Orton's completion percentage on 3rd down this year had he played for the Ravens or Falcons? I'm guessing better that what he's done with the Broncos - surrounding players make a difference.

At this point, Tebow is the starter and Orton is benched. I think it has much to do with the popularity of Tebow and the fact that he would fill more seats than Orton.

There is so much uncertainty right now. This thread is sort of an Orton vs. Tebow thread, and the capabilities of each. But BOTH quarterbacks could be lame ducks and playing out their final times in Denver. We just don't know what will happen in the future. I like the mobility and fire of Tebow, I hope he sticks. I like the team mentality and hard work of Orton, but he seems to work best when things are going well, and not as good when the chips are down. But is that him, or the teams he's been on? I don't think we know enough to say for sure. But IF the last sentence I wrote is true about Orton, then maybe Tebow is the better choice for starter, because things certainly aren't going well in Denver and the chips ARE down.

horsepig
12-23-2010, 06:21 PM
Top is gone as far as I can tell... Last night in another Orton thread he caught a lot of flack... Idk what happened behind the scenes exactly but he said he's not going to post much any more because of something that happened... Its sad when we chase off posters who have different opinions...

Come back Top! Top come back!

I don't want to see any body leave because of crap like this. I disagree with Clay on just about everything, but I still appreciate his posts and even high 5 him once in a while.

Where's Jr, I always enjoy his posts, and even agree with him on a lot of stuff.

Did McD's downfall drive him into the scrub brush? Talk to me Jr.

BroncoNut
12-23-2010, 06:22 PM
whoa, I didn't know Top actually left the site

BroncoWave
12-23-2010, 06:22 PM
Come back Top! Top come back!

I don't want to see any body leave because of crap like this. I disagree with Clay on just about everything, but I still appreciate his posts and even high 5 him once in a while.

Where's Jr, I always enjoy his posts, and even agree with him on a lot of stuff.

Did McD's downfall drive him into the scrub brush? Talk to me Jr.

JR is Lonestar.

BroncoWave
12-23-2010, 06:24 PM
whoa, I didn't know Top actually left the site

He's just being a drama queen. He'll be back before long.

ursamajor
12-23-2010, 06:24 PM
TBH, Cutler and the Bears struggled on 3rd down going into the bye. Coming out of the bye, they were much better running the ball, and in turn, became better on 3rd down.

One certainly helps the other.

horsepig
12-23-2010, 06:42 PM
SO it is OK to have excuses for Tebow but not for Orton,

just wanted to make sure I have this correct.





Your entitled to your Opinion on Orton. No issues with that at all.

as for the past 5 years yeas it has been a problem Since Jake left and EVEN then it has not been stellar since John, TD and the SB oline that retired.

For that matter. there was an article the other day from M lombardi he said something mare articulately than I have been able to for years.



that sums it up pretty well.


BTW let me remind y'all of my stance on tebow.

Lombardi is way off base on this. IMO, there are three serious flaws with the undeniably successful ZBS.

#1: Your team's defense practices against this scheme which employs smallish, athletic linemen-in other words a "finesse" offense. What do you expect to happen to your defense when that is the competition they see day in and day out? What do the coaches see in practice that impress them inregard to defensive players? Guys that perform well in practice against a "finesse" scheme is what. You more than likely end up with a rather "soft" defensive team. Ask Bo Polini.

#2: Your team will struggle in the Red Zone.

#3: See #2, unless you have a GOAT like TD toting the rock.

horsepig
12-23-2010, 06:45 PM
JR is Lonestar.

Thanks, I've noticed Lonestar has some good comments.

TXBRONC
12-23-2010, 06:59 PM
Come back Top! Top come back!

I don't want to see any body leave because of crap like this. I disagree with Clay on just about everything, but I still appreciate his posts and even high 5 him once in a while.

Where's Jr, I always enjoy his posts, and even agree with him on a lot of stuff.

Did McD's downfall drive him into the scrub brush? Talk to me Jr.

Jr is here, he's just going by a new handle (Lonestar).

Juriga72
12-24-2010, 12:20 AM
It seems that Kyle is just BAD on 3rd downs.

2005-52/120 4td 6int 47.4 qb rating

2008-62/124 4td 3 int 70.5

2009-84/153 10td 3int 86.9

2010- 60/120 3td 5int 58,0

Career-258/517 21td 17int 66.91 qb rating

Lonestar
12-24-2010, 01:36 AM
Come back Top! Top come back!

I don't want to see any body leave because of crap like this. I disagree with Clay on just about everything, but I still appreciate his posts and even high 5 him once in a while.

Where's Jr, I always enjoy his posts, and even agree with him on a lot of stuff.

Did McD's downfall drive him into the scrub brush? Talk to me Jr.

Pretty much left here also, just check in from time to time.

boards loss not ours.

DenBronx
12-24-2010, 02:19 AM
oh god....:rolleyes:


drama...

JDL
12-24-2010, 03:39 AM
This thread has been posted in response to claims that Orton only struggled in third down situations because he constantly faced 3rd and 8+ situations.



So you say Orton only has a low conversion rate because he's constantly facing 3rd and 8+...lets see how Orton does on 3rd and 7 (or less) when he passes or runs himself.

--------------------------------------------
Orton vs Cardinals on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd.
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass INTERCEPTED
3rd and 2 - K.Orton sacked for -10 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Graham
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass INTERCEPTED and returned for TD

(AGAINST CARDINALS, ORTON WAS 1/7 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Chiefs on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 13 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to K.Moreno
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd

(AGAINST CHIEFS, ORTON WAS 1/4 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Rams on 3rd and 7 or less:
*There were no 3rd and 7 or less situations in this game that was an all around debacle for the entire team...

Orton vs Chargers on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass intended for J.Gaffney INTERCEPTED
3rd and 3 - K.Orton sacked for -11 yards
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 3 - K.Orton sacked for -7 yards

(AGAINST CHARGERS, ORTON WAS 0/5 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Chiefs on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 4 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 6 - K.Orton screen pass to K.Moreno for 23 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 12 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Graham

(AGAINST CHIEFS, ORTON WAS 4/7 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs 49ers on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 6 - K.Orton sacked for -9 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to D.Gronkowski for 8 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to K.Moreno for 2 yards

(AGAINST 49ERS, ORTON WAS 1/3 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Raiders on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to K.Moreno for 3 yards
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to K.Moreno for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Gronkowski

(AGAINST RAIDERS, ORTON WAS 1/5 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Jets on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 7 - K.Orton runs for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Graham
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 29 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Thomas

(AGAINST JETS, ORTON WAS 3/8 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Ravens on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Gronkowski
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 7 yards (first down)

(AGAINST RAVENS, ORTON WAS 4/6 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Titans on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 6 - K.Orton sacked for -9 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to L.Maroney
3rd and 6 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 7 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton sacked for -4 yards
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton sacked for -2 yards
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd

(AGAINST TITANS, ORTON WAS 2/7 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Colts on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass incomplete to E.Royal
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass intended for E.Royal INTERCEPTED
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass incomplete to D.Thomas
3rd and 1 - K.Orton runs for 2 yards (first down)
3rd and 1 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 16 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 7 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton runs for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to J.Gaffney for 4 yards

(AGAINST COLTS, ORTON WAS 4/9 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

Orton vs Seahawks on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to J.Gaffney for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 34 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 2 - K.Orton pass incomplete to C.Buckhalter
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to B.Lloyd for 13 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to D.Graham for 10 yards (first down)
3rd and 5 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass to J.Gaffney for 6 yards (first down)
3rd and 4 - K.Orton pass to D.Thomas, TOUCHDOWN

(AGAINST SEAHAWKS, ORTON WAS 8/9 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)**FLUKE!!

Orton vs Jaguars on 3rd and 7 or less:
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to J.Gaffney
3rd and 7 - K.Orton pass to E.Royal for 9 yards (first down)
3rd and 7 - K.Orton sacked for -7 yards
3rd and 4 - K.Orton runs for 5 yards (first down)
3rd and 3 - K.Orton pass incomplete to B.Lloyd

(AGAINST JAGUARS, ORTON WAS 2/5 ON 3RD AND 7 OR LESS)

-----------------------------------------------------------
So, in 15 games, Kyle Orton converted 31/75 3rd and 7 or less for a whopping 41%. Those numbers include a fluke game against the hapless Seahawks where Orton converted 8/9 on 3rd and 7 or less.

To break it down a little more, in our 10 losses, Orton converted 17/52 on 3rd and 7 or less for a paultry 32%.

Orton also threw just 2 TDs and 4 INTs in these 3rd and 7 or less situations.

So, when others say that Orton's 3rd down numbers are skewed because he faced so many 3rd and 8+ situations, it is simply not true. Orton sucked on 3rd down no matter what the distance was.

I know Orton is no longer our starting QB, but I just wanted to set the record straight once and for all with some irrefutable evidence.

So, what's good? What's bad? where's the comparison? you say 41% isn't good... he was at almost 50% the first 10 games... where does that rate?

What kind of substandard spoon-fed hate analysis is this?

40% is generally considered above average for all 3rd downs... I would venture to guess that 50% on 3rd and 7 or less is pretty reasonable overall in the league (if not overly optimistic) as the rates on 3rd and 2 or less are likely to be substantially higher around the league... such that the 40% bench mark on 3rd down is probably driven up by strong rushing teams able to convert those (we didn't most of the year) ... medium length you are probably closer to the league median of 38.3% on 3rd down (there are probably fewer 3rd and shorts and 3rd and longs than there are 3rd and medium such that medium probably affects the numbers most.)

So, considering league median on all 3rd down attempts is a 38.3% conversion rate .... I doubt you're going to find a QB that was at 60% on 3rd 7yds or less.... probably won't find very many too far above 50 (there are 5 teams that are superb on 3rd down and convert 45% - there QBs could easily be at 55%), the rest are right at 42% or less. So, you may have a couple elite QBs well above 50%, but considering that for 10 games Orton was right 49+% that was probably above average in the league.. who knows... 42%... where does that fit in versus other QBs in the league. What percent of his 3rd downs were 2/3yds or less versus 5-7 (as the threat of the run tends to keep a D off balance and allow better conversion rates) ... in short where is the analysis?

ULTIMATELY, you don't show ANY context, provide any reference for the number... you just state it is bad... what it is, is sloppy... it is a waste of time... it is in a word worthless. You didn't set ANY record straight you didn't show anything... but show raw numbers in a vacuum that feed this insane and ridiculous tirade against Orton. I swear statistics should become a mandatory class in school now because people have such a terrible understanding and ability to present reasoned arguments one way or the other. You sir failed miserably to provide ANY context and in fact ANY substance... period.

JDL
12-24-2010, 03:45 AM
TBH, Cutler and the Bears struggled on 3rd down going into the bye. Coming out of the bye, they were much better running the ball, and in turn, became better on 3rd down.

One certainly helps the other.

SHHHHHHH. ... it isn't allowed to make any kind of reasoned sense here.

nflfan
12-24-2010, 06:32 AM
Well....Kyle Orton sucks...

and 3rd downs have been a nightmare to Broncos fans both offensively and defensively for the past 5 years now.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STAT S&archive=true&seasonType=REG&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=DOWN_3RD_PERCENTAGE&d-447263-n=1&season=2008&qualified=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=2&role=TM&d-447263-p=1

3rd in the league in 3rd down percentage behind only Indy and the Saints in 2008.

Juriga72
12-24-2010, 08:52 AM
SHHHHHHH. ... it isn't allowed to make any kind of reasoned sense here.

Hey... just a quick question.....

"Which quartebacks are the two highest for getting first downs this year?"

#1- Phillip RIvers- 44%
#2-Jay Cutler- 39.1%

#18-Kyle Orton- 34%

Hmmmmmm I wonder what a really good quarteback does when the game is on the line?

11 - 4th quarter comebacks, 15 game winning drives for Jay Cutler

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=CutlJa00

6 -4th quarter comebacks, 7 game winning drives......

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=OrtoKy00

Wow.... Jay is 2x better when it counts

BroncoStud
12-24-2010, 12:28 PM
SHHHHHHH. ... it isn't allowed to make any kind of reasoned sense here.

So what would be the reasoning that in 2008 with 1900+ rushing yards the Denver Broncos were 47.5% on 3rd downs... Then in 2009 with 1900+ rushing yards the Denver Broncos were 36% on 3rd downs?

Denver had a better defense in 2009, by a LOT, the running game was about the same, the difference must be that Jay Cutler is 11% better on 3rd downs than Kyle Orton.

Even with a solid running game Orton can't get the job done. He sucks. Good riddance.

TXBRONC
12-24-2010, 12:52 PM
As many people have said including myself Orton is an ok starter but he's not a long term solution because in clutch situations he can not care carry a team consistently. If we didn't have Tebow then I would say were in better hands with Orton IF the defense is playing well.

Northman
12-24-2010, 01:02 PM
SHHHHHHH. ... it isn't allowed to make any kind of reasoned sense here.

Except of course when Moreno was actually able to run the ball is when Orton played his worse. Who knew? :lol:

Sinthor
12-24-2010, 02:16 PM
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STAT S&archive=true&seasonType=REG&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=DOWN_3RD_PERCENTAGE&d-447263-n=1&season=2008&qualified=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=2&role=TM&d-447263-p=1

3rd in the league in 3rd down percentage behind only Indy and the Saints in 2008.

Yes, but for 2010 they're ranked 29th ahead of only Carolina, Washington and then Arizona.

2008 doesn't matter much anymore.

nflfan
12-24-2010, 08:59 PM
Yes, but for 2010 they're ranked 29th ahead of only Carolina, Washington and then Arizona.

2008 doesn't matter much anymore.

I was just debunking the statement that the Broncos haven't been good at 3rd downs in 5 years; they were 3rd in the league in 2008. In 2007, Broncos were middle of the pack, ranking 15th in the league.

In 2009, the Broncos were 22nd at 3rd down percentage; that ties the 2005 Broncos. Now, they're 29th ..... funny what happens when you remove clutch 3rd down performers like Marshall, Scheffler, Stokley, and Hillis.

I Eat Staples
12-24-2010, 10:25 PM
Pretty much left here also, just check in from time to time.

boards loss not ours.

I strongly disagree with this statement.