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View Full Version : Breakin’ It Down, Week One Vs. Oakland



dogfish
09-03-2008, 01:51 AM
Well, the long-anticipated time is almost here. And what better way to start a fresh season than by kicking the snot out of the Faders? Actually, the closer I look at this matchup, the less sure I am that it’s going to go down that way. Oh, I feel pretty confident that we’re going to win—but I have a feeling that they may keep it close for longer than we like. Right now, with no Brandon Marshall in the lineup, I’m afraid that there are more similarities between these two teams than most Broncos fans would like to admit. But luckily for us, the most obvious differences are at a few of the most important spots. Namely, quarterback, left tackle and head coach.

Rob Ryan has traditionally played a man-heavy defensive scheme, although they played more zone last year. Without Brandon Marshall to occupy their attention, I fully expect them to run lots of Cover-3 and load the box against the run. I think we’ll see a fair amount of blitzing, both to slow the run and to test our inexperienced tackles on passing downs. If they bring heavy linebacker and safety blitzes, we should be able to exploit the middle of the field with our typical quick slants. They have a very talented pair of corners, and quite frankly I think our receivers are going to have a tough time getting much separation on deeper routes. Asomugha’s good enough to give any of our guys fits, especially in press coverage. If we can get it, IMO our best matchup is Eddie Royal against Meangelo Hall— I’d go right at him. Despite his elite physical tools, Meangelo’s prone to mental lapses, and has a nasty habit of biting on double moves and getting beat deep. If the slants are working early, the slant-and-go may be there later for Fast Eddie. Routt is a solid nickel back, and I don’t anticipate a lot of big plays from Stokley, but Stokes should be crafty enough to get away from him when we need to move the chains. OLB Thomas Howard is a rare athlete that can run with any RB in coverage, and Cutler will have to respect that speed when he looks to throw to the backs. I think the chef presents a nice size mismatch if we can get him against free safety Michael Huff—particularly in the red zone.

This will be the first regular season test of our re-vamped line, and I think they should do well against an underwhelming Oakland front four. Derrick Burgess is a good challenge, but the good news is that they don’t have anybody else that commands a double team, meaning that we can give either OT tight end help if necessary. My one concern is blitz pickup—this isn’t preseason, and a group of guys with no live experience together when the real bullets are flying will have to be sharp, communicate well and not miss assignments. This is particularly critical given that we may not have Nails making the line calls, and neither of our top tailbacks is exactly a standout in pass protection. I won’t be surprised to see Pittman or Hillis in a single back set on obvious passing downs.

Hopefully the line can continue moving bodies in the running game the way they did in preseason. Combine a fairly weak group of D-tackles with sideline-to-sideline speed in the linebacker corps, and I’d run the ball straight up the gut—nothing fancy, just the I-formation and the tight zone. As I’ve said before, I like Hall better than Young as a between-the-tackles runner, but I imagine that they’ll share carries about evenly unless one of them really starts lighting it up. I feel pretty confident that our OLs can consistently get to the second level, but with no Marshall the other guys are going to have to step up their run blocking outside. If they crowd the LOS early we may have to use the short passing game to loosen them up a little bit, but we should be able to run on them effectively over the course of four quarters.

When they have the ball, we’re just as likely to stack the box against the run. I don’t know if they have any receivers healthy, but that group doesn’t scare me even if they are. Their running backs are a much more talented group, and their line is better at run blocking than pass pro. They’re running a ZBS now, and they proved to be pretty effective at it last year. Their backs are both quick, so our LBs will have to react quickly as well, and cover up those little creases that the ZBS is designed to exploit. Overpursuit can be deadly when facing the zone scheme, and unfortunately our LBs are rather well known for it—especially Webster. I thought DJ improved in that area last year, but he’s still guilty from time to time. I hope that our DT play is at least somewhat better, but I’m hardly expecting a dominant performance. I’ll be happy if we keep a safety in the box pretty much the whole game other than third-and-longs, and I’d also like to see us run blitz the hell out of them. I really just don’t trust our D right up the middle, and the tighter we can pack the LOS the happier I’ll be. I’d rather take my chances with that tub’o’guts quarterback than Fargas and McFadden. Speaking of McFumble. . . he’s awfully prone to it, and our guys should look to strip the ball from him whenever they get a chance. I’m counting on him to cough it up at least once. I don’t think we shut their running game down, but I think their offense will be too one-dimensional to do a lot of damage unless we shoot ourselves in the foot and repeatedly give them a short field with turnovers or special teams gaffes.

I’m just not scared of Jamarcus Russell throwing to those receivers. He may have one year on the bench under his belt, but he’s essentially still a rookie, and very few rookie QBs prove capable of moving the ball consistently. Russell was very raw coming out of college, and he wasn’t known for either his mental acumen or his work habits. I don’t think he’s ready to process information and read defenses at the speed it takes at this level. Of course, our so-called pass rush doesn’t exactly force a lot of quick throws. Kwame Harris is garbage, and I fully expect Elvis Dumervil to eat his lunch, even one-handed. Unfortunately, the lack of a complimentary rusher on the other side will allow them to double Doom consistently. At least baby-sitting Kwame will keep the underrated Zach Miller from having a big game against our very pedestrian safeties. If I were Slowick, I’d jam their wideouts on the outside and throw every blitz I could find against Russell. Harris will almost certainly oblige with a few costly penalties, and if we put pressure on the inexperienced Russell, turnovers may ensue.

In a matchup of two solid running games with equally shaky run defenses, establishing a ground game in the first half will be big. If we beat them to it we might walk away with this one, but if they can get it started they just might be able to hang with us. In the end, I expect the difference in quarterback play to be a big deciding factor. I just feel that we’ve got a guy who can put a few drives together when we need them, and they don’t. We’re a different offense without #15, but we should still be good enough to get it done as long as we avoid any stupid mistakes. Are you ready for some football? I sure as hell am!

G_Money
09-03-2008, 02:30 AM
Beautiful.

I agree about Hall vs. Royal. I think Eddie Royal coming out of double moves and on stop-start routes is going to surprise a LOT of corners the first time around the league. His deceleration and acceleration are unbelievable. If I was the Raiders I'd stick Ass-o-moo-gah on him instead, and let Hall take Jackson or whomever. We'll see what they do. I hope we throw the ball to Hillis at least a couple of times - he's more dangerous with the ball in his hands than people realize. A screen or two to Hall/Young is guaranteed.

We're gonna try to get their LBs to commit to pursuit so we can get the reverses in. Theirs and ours DO have that same overpursuit problem.

You laid it out really well. If we lose, it's pretty much our fault. Russell should not be able to beat us with those wideouts in the first game of the season. Not unless we absolutely cannot shut down the 3-headed RB they're featuring.

I'm ready for the game. Sucks we have to wait til the end of the football weekend for it. Thanks for the thorough breakdown.

~G

anton...
09-03-2008, 02:52 AM
nice work as always doggo...

your preview is still the only one i ever read...

monday cant come quick enough!!

GO BRONCOS!!
________
Roll blunts (http://howtorollablunt.net/)

bcbronc
09-03-2008, 04:04 AM
nice breakdown dog. I agree that it's going to be a tougher game than a lot of people assume.

the Raiders defence will keep them in most games. their offence will likely get better as the season wears on (as will ours). I think their D has an advantage on our O, with it being this lines first game together (or period for some) and BM not being in the lineup. and I think our D has the edge over their D, but just slightly. I only think we have the edge here because they will still be trying to figure out the right balance for using their RBs and because thier QB is starting his first game.

I'm worried about this game, and think we'll need a big mistake by the fade to pull it out. Broncos win 16-13 in a field goal fest.

WhatEver!!!
09-03-2008, 05:37 AM
I agree with everything you stated also...

We will stack the box and have our corners cover man-to-man. But that leaves one big remaining problem; Russell. Not his passing, his running. He may be fumble prone but he can cut our D up with his ability to takeoff. We should have a LB assigned to him to hopefully keep him pocketed. His number may not look good but I feel it needed to be stated.

Fan in Exile
09-03-2008, 07:03 AM
I'm not so sure when you say that establishing the running game in the first half is big. I agree with your analysis of the teams and their strengths and weaknesses, however I think the best way to exploit that is by establishing the passing game and doing that quickly, then running the ball down their throats in the second half.

If we can hang 7 on them on our first drive that's going to put them in a playing behind mentality and if we can keep hanging points on them they're going to abandon the rush on their own. It will take a while but it will happen.

I really think that this is a game where Jay is going to have to show that he is an elite QB. That he can step up and carry the team, because that the biggest category where we are better than the raiders.

Kaylore
09-03-2008, 09:36 AM
I think with their corners we need to run a lot out of three wide, or go two TE and motion Scheffler or Jackson out into the slot. SoCalBronco on the Mane pointed out that this game could be all about Stokely.

girler
09-03-2008, 10:03 AM
Just wanted to add something funny/interesting. I was listening to Lewis and Floorwax on 103.5 the Fox this morning. They were saying how ironic it was that Lelie left the Broncos to "get out from under Javon" so he could be a #1 receiver somewhere, and now he's at the Raiders, under Javon. :lol:

WARHORSE
09-03-2008, 10:29 AM
The biggest threat to us will come from Darren McFadden. But if we just run our scheme, and honor our gaps, he can be stymied.

He may break one, but we should be able to hold him.

MasterShake
09-03-2008, 10:30 AM
Beautiful.

I agree about Hall vs. Royal. I think Eddie Royal coming out of double moves and on stop-start routes is going to surprise a LOT of corners the first time around the league. His deceleration and acceleration are unbelievable. If I was the Raiders I'd stick Ass-o-moo-gah on him instead, and let Hall take Jackson or whomever. We'll see what they do. I hope we throw the ball to Hillis at least a couple of times - he's more dangerous with the ball in his hands than people realize. A screen or two to Hall/Young is guaranteed.

We're gonna try to get their LBs to commit to pursuit so we can get the reverses in. Theirs and ours DO have that same overpursuit problem.

You laid it out really well. If we lose, it's pretty much our fault. Russell should not be able to beat us with those wideouts in the first game of the season. Not unless we absolutely cannot shut down the 3-headed RB they're featuring.

I'm ready for the game. Sucks we have to wait til the end of the football weekend for it. Thanks for the thorough breakdown.

~G

Good points. I'm happy that we are the last game of the opening week. We get to see how the rest of the West shapes up and then shoot to 1st place!:salute:

NameUsedBefore
09-03-2008, 10:31 AM
We will lose if we can't stop the run, IMO.

Skinny
09-03-2008, 05:07 PM
Great break down dog. You hit on all the key areas and factors for this game imo. I think our O-line will be the key for us.

If the O-line can carry over and continue to play at the level they have been playing through out the pre-season, we've got a great shot at coming away from there with a win.

We have seemed to have struggled out the gate on opening day in years past and hustled our way to a close victory at Buffalo last season, so i'm thinking we will see a pretty close ball game Monday night. I would be shocked to see a blow-out by either side should that happen.

Right now with our QB pressure situation still not where we would like it to be, controlling the game, particularly at the LOS, offensively for us is our best defense. Mixing it up with both the pass and the run, and not neccessarily heavy on one or the other, to try and keep them off balance defensively would be huge. Put together some nice long 10 play drives with a nice ball control offense and win the time of possesion battle and Oakland will only be able to do so much damage offensively. It would be best to just keep their offense off the feild if we can.

Hawgdriver
09-03-2008, 06:03 PM
I forget...who are our linebackers and front 4? You know, in case they try to run the ball...;)

In my mind, we absolutely have to stop the run. #30/32 in rushing YPG won't get it done, and in our two games vs. the Raiders last year they hung 200 and then 175 yards rushing on the Broncos. Although that might be Bates era buffoonery, I think it's clear we have to establish that they can't run on us. Until we do that, it's really a toss up. We all know Jay can take us down the field and we will probably have at least a partially effective run game.

We need to stop the run, and make tub-o throw early and often, and get a pick early to rattle his cage. Then it will be one of those fun to watch games where you start to feel pity for the rookie celebrities (McFad & tub-o).

Dean
09-03-2008, 08:10 PM
As mentioned, McFadden is their playmaker. However, he tries to cut every run outside if given the opportunity to do so.

I believe this works to our advantage in that their receivers are not noted as being strong blockers. Our DE, OLB, corners, and eigth man in the box should be able to contain him.

I don't see McFadden as the same threat when forced to run between the tackles.

When that is coupled with a rookie (for all practical purposes) QB, our defense doesn't cause serious concern. It is difficult for a new QB to grind out long drives and as I have previously mentioned I think that their home run threat is seriously curtailed.

Couple all this with the help of this year's improved offense and the defense should be fresh and much more effective than last year.

Bronco9798
09-03-2008, 08:39 PM
We will lose if we can't stop the run, IMO.

Or pressure the QB. Two keys every week for us. Those two areas have killed us the past few years.

WARHORSE
09-03-2008, 08:58 PM
Jamulchus is gonna donate some balls to the Champ Bailey HOF foundation. I predict two picks of Jamulchus, possibly more.


Id also like to see Champ run a few routes on offense since Brandon isnt here. Just fly patterns in order to stretch the field. His hands are as good as a WRs.........

omac
09-03-2008, 10:22 PM
We will lose if we can't stop the run, IMO.

They will lose if they can't stop the run. :D

dogfish
09-04-2008, 01:00 AM
Beautiful.

I agree about Hall vs. Royal. I think Eddie Royal coming out of double moves and on stop-start routes is going to surprise a LOT of corners the first time around the league. His deceleration and acceleration are unbelievable. If I was the Raiders I'd stick Ass-o-moo-gah on him instead, and let Hall take Jackson or whomever. We'll see what they do. I hope we throw the ball to Hillis at least a couple of times - he's more dangerous with the ball in his hands than people realize. A screen or two to Hall/Young is guaranteed.

We're gonna try to get their LBs to commit to pursuit so we can get the reverses in. Theirs and ours DO have that same overpursuit problem.

You laid it out really well. If we lose, it's pretty much our fault. Russell should not be able to beat us with those wideouts in the first game of the season. Not unless we absolutely cannot shut down the 3-headed RB they're featuring.

I'm ready for the game. Sucks we have to wait til the end of the football weekend for it. Thanks for the thorough breakdown.

~G



thanks G, greatly appreciated!

i agree, the smart thing for them to do is put asomugha on eddie-- i'm not sure if they flip their corners, though. . . it would definitely be nice to see him run the reverse-- get that speed out in space and let him make plays. . .

dogfish
09-04-2008, 01:04 AM
nice work as always doggo...

your preview is still the only one i ever read...

monday cant come quick enough!!

GO BRONCOS!!


nice breakdown dog. I agree that it's going to be a tougher game than a lot of people assume.

the Raiders defence will keep them in most games. their offence will likely get better as the season wears on (as will ours). I think their D has an advantage on our O, with it being this lines first game together (or period for some) and BM not being in the lineup. and I think our D has the edge over their D, but just slightly. I only think we have the edge here because they will still be trying to figure out the right balance for using their RBs and because thier QB is starting his first game.

I'm worried about this game, and think we'll need a big mistake by the fade to pull it out. Broncos win 16-13 in a field goal fest.


wow, look who came out of the woodwork!


good to see you guys. . . :cheers:


i hope you stick around. . . .

Dreadnought
09-06-2008, 08:57 AM
As mentioned, McFadden is their playmaker. However, he tries to cut every run outside if given the opportunity to do so.

I believe this works to our advantage in that their receivers are not noted as being strong blockers. Our DE, OLB, corners, and eigth man in the box should be able to contain him.

I don't see McFadden as the same threat when forced to run between the tackles.

When that is coupled with a rookie (for all practical purposes) QB, our defense doesn't cause serious concern. It is difficult for a new QB to grind out long drives and as I have previously mentioned I think that their home run threat is seriously curtailed.

Couple all this with the help of this year's improved offense and the defense should be fresh and much more effective than last year.

If we can force 3rd downs we can stop them - Russell may be effective if they have their run game on track and don't fall behind. If we get a 2 score lead or can force 3rd and 5+ regularly we win easily. I can't see them being able to come from behind at all.

Fan in Exile
09-09-2008, 12:24 AM
I'm not so sure when you say that establishing the running game in the first half is big. I agree with your analysis of the teams and their strengths and weaknesses, however I think the best way to exploit that is by establishing the passing game and doing that quickly, then running the ball down their throats in the second half.

If we can hang 7 on them on our first drive that's going to put them in a playing behind mentality and if we can keep hanging points on them they're going to abandon the rush on their own. It will take a while but it will happen.

I really think that this is a game where Jay is going to have to show that he is an elite QB. That he can step up and carry the team, because that the biggest category where we are better than the raiders.

This is almost exactly what we did as well. I really didn't expect the raiders to implode that badly. I'm also ecstatic that Royal did so well.