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11-12-2010, 03:30 PM
Didn't see this anywhere in the forum . . .



Q: I wonder if you might find it worthwhile doing an analysis on the
following Broncos offensive stats and what they could indicate:

# QB rating on third down

# QB rating in the fourth quarter

# QB rating in the final two minutes


A: Shawn, Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is 18th in the league in passer
rating on third down at 78.1. Drew Brees leads the league at 112.1.

In the fourth quarter, Orton is 15th in the league with a passer rating of 83.9,
with Jacksonville's David Garrard leading the league at 112.1.

In the final two minutes of games, Orton is seventh in the league with a passer
rating of 96.8. Despite all the criticism heaped on him for his four-interception
cave-in against the Redskins and other poor decisions, the Bears' Jay Cutler
leads the league with a passer rating of 141.5 in the final two minutes (four
touchdowns, no interceptions).

What it says, especially given that Orton has the most pass attempts of any
quarterback in the league right now both in the final two minutes of games and
in the fourth quarter, is that his team is behind often and he's in a situation
when he has to throw.

And defenses know he's in those situations. The Broncos can't run the ball to
keep manageable down-and-distance situations, and that shows up in the final
score as well as the Broncos' offensive efficiency.

It's been particularly tough on third down for Orton. The Broncos are often in
brutal third-down situations — they had six in the Ravens game of third-and-11
or worse, five of third-and-9 or worse against Oakland and six of third-and-8 or
worse against the 49ers — and that's the equivalent of Christmastime for a
defense.

The defense knows what's coming, and it makes it easy for it to dictate how
things go. They can either go after Orton to knock him off schedule before the
play develops, or they can drop more players into coverage so he has no place
to throw.

Defenses rule those situations, and Orton — or Peyton Manning — couldn't do
much about that.

Those are desperation plays and offenses simply aren't going to succeed in
those situations, especially since the Broncos have had an inordinate amount
of third-down situations in which they have 20 or more yards to go for a first
down.

In their last three games alone, they have had two third-and-23 situations, a
third-and-25 and a third-and-28. That's too much for any offense to overcome
with any quarterback.

And until the Broncos run the ball better to take some of the pressure off,
those trends are only going to get worse because they will consistently be
playing in situations that favor the defense.

Jeff Legwold: 303-954-2359 or jlegwold@denverpost.comhttp://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_16588205

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T.K.O.
11-12-2010, 03:51 PM
unfortunately defenses know the broncos are ALWAYS in passing mode,since we have yet to have 1 good game rushing.
this article fails to mention that orton is on pace to break the NFL passing record,even though opposing D's are fully aware that we avg. less than 3 yds a carry:shocked:

BroncoStud
11-12-2010, 04:02 PM
Awesome, another apology article for Kyle Orton... Once again, we credit him for the yards BECAUSE HE THROWS A LOT but we excuse him for the mistakes BECAUSE HE THROWS A LOT.

It's a spread offense, anyone really think we're going to go Georgia Tech and rush for 240 yards/game out of the shotgun? It's nonsense.

How many QBs aren't behind with 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter? You're either taking knees or trying to score, so that point is absurd.

It all goes back to this...

Orton: 316 Pass attempts (12) TDs
Rivers: 329 pass attempts (19) TDs
Fitzpatrick: 227 Pass attempts (13) TDs
Cassel: 214 Pass attempts (12) TDs
Garrard: 149 Pass attempts (13) TDs


The guy touching the ball on every play isn't getting the offense into the endzone. He gets credit for the yards and the stats, he has fault in the lack of scoring as well. It's plagued him his entire career. If Orton were able to direct more scoring drives perhaps we wouldn't be behind in so many of our games in the 4th quarter. Denver needs to run the ball better, for sure, but Orton get as much of the fault here because quite frankly, he is ineffective on conversion downs.

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11-12-2010, 04:21 PM
Awesome, another apology article for Kyle Orton... Once again, we credit him for the yards BECAUSE HE THROWS A LOT but we excuse him for the mistakes BECAUSE HE THROWS A LOT.

It's a spread offense, anyone really think we're going to go Georgia Tech and rush for 240 yards/game out of the shotgun? It's nonsense.

How many QBs aren't behind with 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter? You're either taking knees or trying to score, so that point is absurd.

It all goes back to this...

Orton: 316 Pass attempts (12) TDs
Rivers: 329 pass attempts (19) TDs
Fitzpatrick: 227 Pass attempts (13) TDs
Cassel: 214 Pass attempts (12) TDs
Garrard: 149 Pass attempts (13) TDs


The guy touching the ball on every play isn't getting the offense into the endzone. He gets credit for the yards and the stats, he has fault in the lack of scoring as well. It's plagued him his entire career. If Orton were able to direct more scoring drives perhaps we wouldn't be behind in so many of our games in the 4th quarter. Denver needs to run the ball better, for sure, but Orton get as much of the fault here because quite frankly, he is ineffective on conversion downs.

Just as a suggestion:

Go here (http://www.merriam-webster.com/) and look up the meaning of "redundant."

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KCL
11-12-2010, 04:32 PM
Honestly I like Orton...even though he didn't do well in the last meeting with the Chiefs...I know he threw for a ton of yards but turned the ball over twice to Derrick Johnson...I would like to see what he could do in Kansas City...not like it would happen.

BroncoStud
11-12-2010, 04:38 PM
Just as a suggestion:

Go here (http://www.merriam-webster.com/) and look up the meaning of "redundant."

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Should I go there before or after you?

BroncoWave
11-12-2010, 04:39 PM
Just as a suggestion:

Go here (http://www.merriam-webster.com/) and look up the meaning of "redundant."

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I thought it was a good post. Just because one doesn't agree with it doesn't make it redundant. One could argue that post after post defending Orton could also be considered redundant.

TXBRONC
11-12-2010, 05:21 PM
Elway for the majority of his career didn't have a running attack, good offensive line, or solid receivers but he managed to win games. 47 of them were in crunch time.

sanluis
11-12-2010, 05:30 PM
Orton: 316 Pass attempts (12) TDs
Orton has no, none, zip, rush attack to go with him. The below QBs all have very good rushing counter parts and thus give the Defense more to think about and try to stop. That Orton has done as well as he has is a testament to his ability IMHO.


Rivers: 329 pass attempts (19) TDs
Fitzpatrick: 227 Pass attempts (13) TDs
Cassel: 214 Pass attempts (12) TDs
Garrard: 149 Pass attempts (13) TDs

OrangeHoof
11-12-2010, 05:33 PM
Kyle Orton facing tough obstacles in push to be productive QB

I guess so. Weak line. Weak running game. Unimaginative game calling. Noodle arm. No tight ends. Anything I left out?

sanluis
11-12-2010, 05:40 PM
Kyle Orton facing tough obstacles in push to be productive QB

I guess so. Weak line. Weak running game. Unimaginative game calling. Noodle arm. No tight ends. Anything I left out?

1st rounder waiting in the wings to take his job...

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11-12-2010, 05:42 PM
1st rounder waiting in the wings to take his job...

I believe that is helping to make him a productive QB . . .

. . . far more than the "noodle arm" myth . . .

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Ravage!!!
11-12-2010, 05:48 PM
Honestly I like Orton...even though he didn't do well in the last meeting with the Chiefs...I know he threw for a ton of yards but turned the ball over twice to Derrick Johnson...I would like to see what he could do in Kansas City...not like it would happen.

But thats WHY you like Kyle Orton!!! :lol: :laugh:

KCL
11-12-2010, 06:26 PM
But thats WHY you like Kyle Orton!!! :lol: :laugh:

No no no...you're trying to get me in trouble...:lol:

BroncoStud
11-12-2010, 06:31 PM
I believe that is helping to make him a productive QB . . .

. . . far more than the "noodle arm" myth . . .

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Noodle arm "myth"? It's about as noodle as an arm gets at the NFL level.

LRtagger
11-12-2010, 06:31 PM
Elway for the majority of his career didn't have a running attack, good offensive line, or solid receivers but he managed to win games. 47 of them were in crunch time.

I don't think anyone would even dare compare Kyle Orton to John Elway.

sanluis
11-12-2010, 06:39 PM
I don't think anyone would even dare compare Kyle Orton to John Elway.

And Elway finally won the Big game with TD. He needed the running game as well once he got to a certain level.

Ravage!!!
11-12-2010, 06:42 PM
I don't think anyone would even dare compare Kyle Orton to John Elway.

Not true. I've read many times where people bring up Orton's "path to franchise history" in passing yards, mentioning how that beats out John Elway and the great Jake Plummer.

topscribe
11-12-2010, 06:43 PM
Noodle arm "myth"? It's about as noodle as an arm gets at the NFL level.

That's it . . . show us how much you don't know . . .

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Ravage!!!
11-12-2010, 06:43 PM
And Elway finally won the Big game with TD. He needed the running game as well once he got to a certain level.

Who's talking about winning a SB? We just want to win a regular season game.

KCL
11-12-2010, 06:44 PM
Who's talking about winning a SB? We just want to win a regular season game.

:lol: too funny Rav

oops...maybe I shouldn't laugh at that.

BroncoStud
11-13-2010, 12:06 AM
That's it . . . show us how much you don't know . . .

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Hi Kyle! How are you today?

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11-13-2010, 10:16 AM
Broncos' Orton, Chiefs' Cassel developing as QBs

Hall of Fame quarterback Len Dawson calls Kyle Orton "my guy," since both
attended Purdue and both were the Boilermakers' starting quarterback in their
collegiate careers.

Dawson also spent his storied career with the Chiefs, is a radio analyst for the
team and adds that "I've really enjoyed watching this team and (Chiefs
quarterback) Matt Cassel improve and play."

And Sunday he sees a tale of two quarterbacks, one with a running game —
Cassel — and one without — Orton.

The two have each thrown for 12 touchdowns so far, but Cassel has done it
in 102 fewer pass attempts. Orton has thrown for 1,098 more yards than
Cassel so far this season as the two head into Sunday's game, but Cassel,
with the 5-3 Chiefs, has won three more games.

The difference is, at least a big part of it, Dawson said this week, is first
down.

"It becomes a problem when you don't have a running attack at your
disposal," Dawson said. "That takes an awful lot of heat off a player like Matt
Cassel, it's not always second-and-8, second-and-9, second-and-7.
"First down is just a huge down. It dictates everything. If you're good on first
down, it makes a lot easier to do everything, even easier to throw on first
down."

The numbers show exactly that thus far.

On 98 rushing plays on first down this season, the Broncos, on average, have
gained just 2.93 yards.

That means when they run the ball on first down they are, on average, facing
a second-and-7.

The Chiefs have run the ball 136 times on first down and averaged 6.55 yards
on those plays. That means, they are on average facing second-and-3.45
yards.

That is a rather comfortable safety zone for both a quarterback and offensive
coordinator to be in. The playbook is wide open at second-and-3, second
and-4, pass or run or play-action, it's all in play for a defense to think about.
In addition the quarterback gets hit less on second and third down because
an offense could still run the ball to convert and a defense can't simply play
pass from the snap and look to punish the guy throwing the ball.

The Broncos have averaged 2.33 yards running the ball on second down and
just 1.24 yards on their third-down runs. So the theme, again, is clear in all of
these struggles.

But so often coaches and players talk about the importance of third down,
and for a defense that is certainly a significant statistic when all is said and
done, but when it comes to protecting a quarterback and giving him the best
chance to succeed, first down seems to dictate things.

And the difference can be seen in the two teams that will be in Invesco Field
at Mile High on Sunday.

Jeff Legwold: 303-954-2359 or jlegwold@denverpost.com.

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_16598119


Yes, yes, I know . . . Legwold wrote this because I'm biased . . .

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11-13-2010, 10:43 AM
Hi Kyle! How are you today?

You know, your treatment of statistics and your reaction to those posted by
others leaves me with an impression involving two points. Either:

1) Facts don't mean a lot to you in this case, or
2) You basically do not understand statistics

My guess is that it might be a little of both.

But the impression I get is that everything you post can be translated into one
simple sentence: "I want Tebow to play."

That's all I can figure out from the conclusions you come up with.

Now, there is nothing wrong with that. There are other fans who feel the
same way. But just . . . you know, come out and say it, and leave it at that.
It just seems to me you're going about it the wrong way. Why aren't you
extolling the attributes of Tebow instead of trying to tear down and denigrate
Orton? After all, it seems to me Tebow has plenty of attributes to extol . . .

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BroncoStud
11-13-2010, 11:40 AM
You know, your treatment of statistics and your reaction to those posted by
others leaves me with an impression involving two points. Either:

1) Facts don't mean a lot to you in this case, or
2) You basically do not understand statistics

My guess is that it might be a little of both.

But the impression I get is that everything you post can be translated into one
simple sentence: "I want Tebow to play."

That's all I can figure out from the conclusions you come up with.

Now, there is nothing wrong with that. There are other fans who feel the
same way. But just . . . you know, come out and say it, and leave it at that.
It just seems to me you're going about it the wrong way. Why aren't you
extolling the attributes of Tebow instead of trying to tear down and denigrate
Orton? After all, it seems to me Tebow has plenty of attributes to extol . . .

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My treatment of stats? You've GOT to be kidding... You post stats that show Orton as the second coming of Marino, I post stats that PROVE he isn't.

You want to credit Orton for all the yards but you don't want to discredit Orton for the fact the offense isn't scoring or converting.

You want to say he has no help but ignore the fact that the WRs are having a great year getting wide open for Orton and the scheme is putting him in a position to succeed.

Orton's a system QB who has never and probably will never get a team to the next level because he isn't that sort of talent. His arm is limited, his mobility is horrible, and he makes the majority of his mistakes in clutch time.

You can't have it both way. Orton doesn't get ALL the credit for the good and none of the blame for the bad. The same offensive line that you say can't block allows Orton enough time to throw for 2,500 yards. What you seemingly cannot grasp is that this is a spread offense, running out shotgun. Denver isn't a triple option team that plays power football. When you run 90% of your plays out of shotgun running the ball is not going to be easy.

The offense is DESIGNED for the QB to succeed. Orton still isn't converting or scoring. Watch Rivers play then watch Orton play. Rivers can put the ball anywhere and carries his team every week. Orton needs a LOT to go right for the Broncos to win. He was that way with the Bears. That defense created so many turnovers and scoring opportunities for Orton and he struggled to capitalize often. The Bears fans weren't booing him for no reason.

Like I said, and after this I'm going to step away from this moronic debate (as if there is anything to debate over a system-QB), Orton isn't having a BAD year. He's playing to his potential. The problem is that his potential isn't good enough to carry this team. The Broncos aren't going to be the 2000 Ravens anytime soon. I don't care if it is Tebow, Cam Newton, or some other athletic QB, the Broncos are going to need a QB who can make the plays Orton isn't capable of making.

Trade him in the offseason and get a 3rd rounder for him. It's a win-win. He would help a team like the Vikings, who are close to having all the pieces.

As far as tearing down Tebow, how can we do that when he hasn't played yet? And his limited time playing is producing redzone TDs? He's a rookie, Orton is a 6 year Pro. Pretty substantial difference.

Cugel
11-13-2010, 01:08 PM
Elway for the majority of his career didn't have a running attack, good offensive line, or solid receivers but he managed to win games. 47 of them were in crunch time.

Wow Captain Obvious! I never would have guessed! Kyle Orton is NOT as good as John Elway! :coffee:

And that proves exactly what? Maybe the best QB in the history of the NFL did it so Orton should be able to?

Here's the part you seem to have missed:


It's been particularly tough on third down for Orton. The Broncos are often in brutal third-down situations — they had six in the Ravens game of third-and-11 or worse, five of third-and-9 or worse against Oakland and six of third-and-8 or worse against the 49ers — and that's the equivalent of Christmastime for a defense.


And this:


Defenses rule those situations, and Orton — or Peyton Manning — couldn't do much about that.


and this:


In their last three games alone, they have had two third-and-23 situations, a third-and-25 and a third-and-28. That's too much for any offense to overcome with any quarterback.


and finally:


And until the Broncos run the ball better to take some of the pressure off, those trends are only going to get worse because they will consistently be playing in situations that favor the defense.

Simple reality 101. If you can't run then you can't pass either because defenses aren't stupid and will either drop back 8 defenders or else blitz the passer.

spikerman
11-13-2010, 01:21 PM
Somewhere along the way I guess I missed the point of a fan forum. You have a poster who put up an article for discussion. It was a good article, very pro-Orton, and there is nothing wrong with that. Now, since the article has been posted, I assume the intent is for people to talk about whether they agree or disagree with it. As soon as one poster disagrees with it he is attacked as not being "knowledgeable". What am I missing here?

There's an old saying that a person is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts. I'm beginning to wonder if a person is even actually entitled to their own opinions at this point. ***

*** I'm taking no side in the article. Personally I agree with the article in that I think Orton is having a pretty good year, but I also agree with the dissenter that the lack of TDs is alarming.

Cugel
11-13-2010, 01:24 PM
I NEVER in a MILLION YEARS thought I'd ever end up defending Kyle Orton! NEVER!

I was definitely NOT one of "Orton's Army" when he came to town. I derisively called him "Captain Neck-beard" and said he was a hopeless mediocrity.

But, frankly, he's convinced me BY HIS PLAY that I was wrong about him. He's a lot tougher and smarter than I gave him credit for being. His passes are still accurate out to 15 yards, but he's throwing with some zip on the ball and not just a sitting duck in the pocket.

You can blame every single part of the Broncos 2010 fiasco and yet as one who predicted this from the START, I must say "it's not Kyle Orton that's wrong with the Broncos."

It's McDaniels, and Xanders and the coaches and the defense and the O-line and the lack of a running game. It's getting rid of talented players like Marshall and Hillis and Torain and scrapping a ZBS scheme that worked for one that DOESN'T. It's about every damn thing BUT Orton.

You know what? I still don't really LIKE Kyle Orton, but I can't fault him for what's wrong with this team. He's won my grudging respect. The man's a true professional. Doesn't whine or complain.

If I were the Broncos QB and I went from coming to a team with an offensive juggernaut stocked with real studs like Brandon Marshall, Tony Sheffler and with a ZBS that actually WORKED with tough RBs like Peyton Hillis and Ryan Torain to the CRAP Orton has to work with now (Brandon Lloyd and pray for rain) and a POROUS OL that can NEITHER open running lanes nor protect him during passing situations I'd probably have a melt-down. He doesn't.

Gets hit a TON and yet delivers the ball and doesn't lose his composure. Has no running game and yet manages to do a good job out there.

I suppose neither Orton's backers nor defenders will be satisfied with this, but the critics are simply UNFAIR. Orton is doing better than you're giving him credit for. :coffee:

Ravage!!!
11-13-2010, 01:46 PM
Cugel.

Just because people complain about Orton's inefficiencies and inabilities.. does NOT mean we are "blaming" Orton for the season. Understand, we KNOW that there are a TON of problems with this team, this organization, and ESPECIALLY this coaching staff! However, that does NOT MEAN that Orton can not be (and IS), a problem with this team along with as the rest.

How is that that so many people want to rush to the defense of Orton, when he has ABSOLUTELY shown the inability to do HIS job when his job is tested the most??? Thats been shown time and time again. That doesn't mean the ENTIRE season is lost because of him, but he absolutely is a part of the whole (or hole, depending just how bad you realize this team is).

The critics are being as fair as ANY fan base would be on a QB that is 4-14 and would be even LESS had our defense actually allowed a point in the second half of those first 6 games of last year. EVERY QB is judged on their W/L record, and EVERY QB is judged on HOW they perform in clutch situations, in the 4th, game on the line. EVERY QB is judged on how the team scores, and how well they convert on 3rd downs.

Did you watch the thursday night game? Both QBs were playing good defenses, and at the end of that game... I PROMISE you, not a single person in the stadium was worried about the run. They were defending the pass, they knew the offense was going to pass, and tada.... they STILL converted on 3rd downs and drove the ball down the field.

EVERY team in the NFL has to deal with the other team expecting passes on 3rd down. The lack of a running game can be an excuse for some of the time, but we've gone BEYOND that as a TEAM, and Orton is positively one of the reasons. Granted, he's playing good football for Orton, and is a reason that our passing yardage totals look so good.

Lets stop with this insistence that Orton is doing "everything" and the team just isn't helping him out. If that were true, we would actually WIN some games.

TXBRONC
11-13-2010, 02:06 PM
Wow Captain Obvious! I never would have guessed! Kyle Orton is NOT as good as John Elway! :coffee:

And that proves exactly what? Maybe the best QB in the history of the NFL did it so Orton should be able to?

Here's the part you seem to have missed:



And this:



and this:



and finally:


Simple reality 101. If you can't run then you can't pass either because defenses aren't stupid and will either drop back 8 defenders or else blitz the passer.

Let me get this straight. Because I giving my input that isn't in agreement with article I therefore didn't read it and that gives you the right to attack?

Neither one of your assumptions is correct. If you have nothing better to contribute maybe you should consider contributing nothing.

Lancane
11-13-2010, 02:22 PM
There are things that can not be measured, only weighed with the human mind, such as talent, ability, heart, toughness, leadership and so forth. As creatures of habit we try to measure such qualities with statistics, which doesn't work...and that should be obvious to anyone with even the least bit of intelligence and common sense. We can see such attributes in athletes who compete in any sport, and such traits are the difference between a participant who does well and an athlete that is good enough to be a factor in that sport.

As for Orton, his stats are utter bullshit because in the end, they are nothing more than measurements of his accomplishments without the insight of outside influences and conditions...such as the system, those athletes that contribute as much if not more in and around him, defensive capability of those he's faced and so on. And I'm in no way saying that we should take away any credit Orton has thus far earned, but we should remember that he's more and less then simply numbers. Kyle Orton has proven that he has heart, that he is tough both physically and mentally and that he is a good leader. However, I feel that while he has some talent that he is far and away from being an upper-echelon athlete. But where Orton makes up for it is in his will, another attribute that can not be measured and it's the biggest difference between him and the quarterback he replaced. Cutler is more talent, he has more physical ability...but he also let's himself be dictated by circumstance and Orton doesn't.

Is Orton a better athlete then Cutler? No... Is he a better quarterback then Cutler? No... Is he a better leader then Cutler? It's debatable, but signs point that Orton is the better of the two in that area, however...Cutler is starting to show signs that he's maturing and beginning to grasp that side of it. And I'm not trying to change this to a Orton vs Cutler thread.

The point I am trying to make is that using stats as a foundation of an argument is pointless. Orton plays in a quarterback friendly system that's well known for padding stats, and he's always had success in such a system and less outside of it and that can not be argued, because it's well documented. And at the same time we have to look at and weight the other factors...such as he's surrounded by little talent, he's having to try and carry this team that right now is one-dimensional and is leaving the weight of it all on him, and he's failing because of it. He's no Elway, Manning, Kelly, Marino or Aikman. He's simply an athlete of capable talent in a system that fits him while being surrounded by inept coaches and talent, and he's trying to be more then he is. Even with that said, I think we have to give him credit for what he's done and is doing surrounded by such.

Cugel
11-13-2010, 02:55 PM
He's no Elway, Manning, Kelly, Marino or Aikman. He's simply an athlete of capable talent in a system that fits him while being surrounded by inept coaches and talent, and he's trying to be more then he is. Even with that said, I think we have to give him credit for what he's done and is doing surrounded by such.

I came to respect (and even grudgingly) admire Orton for those very qualities. He does pretty well with very little and gets not much respect.

His coaches are proving themselves hopelessly incompetent and are practically forcing an unwilling Pat Bowlen to fire them.

The front office has gotten rid of far more talent than they've brought in.

What used to work (the offense and running game) no longer does. What used to suck (the defense) still sucks about as bad as it did before).

Orton doesn't have a lot to work with. But, he's kind of a lunch-pail sort of guy who does his job with as much grit as you could want and doesn't let the circumstances get him down.

I only paid attention to his stats AFTER I saw him playing well with determination despite the team unraveling around him. His stats are good, but that's not really why he's having a great year.

HORSEPOWER 56
11-13-2010, 04:37 PM
I posted this in another thread, but it seems to fit in this one so I'll just throw it out there...


I think we can all agree that Orton is pretty much doing everything he can right now and I doubt Cutler would be doing much better here if the roles were reversed. Kyle is not John Elway, he's not Peyton Manning, he's not even Tom Brady. He's Kyle Orton, who isn't the guy who can put the team on his back and be the clutch QB we need right now most of the time but he is an effective QB when playing within a system and isn't forced to throw every down.

I think if we'd all just realize that the major problems on this team start at the top with the coaching staff and not with the QB (Orton could be effective in a better system where we actually can run the ball, too) and the rest of us can realize that Orton just isn't as all-world as we want to believe he is (just isn't the guy who can consisntently lead you back to a win when you're down by a score late in the 4th qtr - you can't blame a lack of running game in a situation with 2:00 left trailing by 6... you have to pass in that situation and it's the QB's and WR's JOB to make plays and score) then we'd all be better off.

We continuously point fingers at/defend Orton and always want to compare him to something he's not. He's not a HOFer, but he doesn't "suck". He will forever be linked to, rightfully so, Jay Cutler because of the trade so his performance will always be filled with "what ifs". Kyle isn't the source of our problems nor do I feel will he be our eventual savior. He's just another player on this team.

Our woes are because of Josh McDaniels, not Kyle Orton.

OrangeHoof
11-13-2010, 04:37 PM
I NEVER in a MILLION YEARS thought I'd ever end up defending Kyle Orton! NEVER!

I was definitely NOT one of "Orton's Army" when he came to town. I derisively called him "Captain Neck-beard" and said he was a hopeless mediocrity.

But, frankly, he's convinced me BY HIS PLAY that I was wrong about him. He's a lot tougher and smarter than I gave him credit for being. His passes are still accurate out to 15 yards, but he's throwing with some zip on the ball and not just a sitting duck in the pocket.

You can blame every single part of the Broncos 2010 fiasco and yet as one who predicted this from the START, I must say "it's not Kyle Orton that's wrong with the Broncos."

It's McDaniels, and Xanders and the coaches and the defense and the O-line and the lack of a running game. It's getting rid of talented players like Marshall and Hillis and Torain and scrapping a ZBS scheme that worked for one that DOESN'T. It's about every damn thing BUT Orton.

You know what? I still don't really LIKE Kyle Orton, but I can't fault him for what's wrong with this team. He's won my grudging respect. The man's a true professional. Doesn't whine or complain.

If I were the Broncos QB and I went from coming to a team with an offensive juggernaut stocked with real studs like Brandon Marshall, Tony Sheffler and with a ZBS that actually WORKED with tough RBs like Peyton Hillis and Ryan Torain to the CRAP Orton has to work with now (Brandon Lloyd and pray for rain) and a POROUS OL that can NEITHER open running lanes nor protect him during passing situations I'd probably have a melt-down. He doesn't.

Gets hit a TON and yet delivers the ball and doesn't lose his composure. Has no running game and yet manages to do a good job out there.

I suppose neither Orton's backers nor defenders will be satisfied with this, but the critics are simply UNFAIR. Orton is doing better than you're giving him credit for. :coffee:

I agree 100%. Orton is doing far better than most would expect given the circumstances. He's not the real problem. But you do have a #1 pick with a rock star following sitting on the bench behind him and the team, overall, is not playing well. Orton is not the problem but you might as well see what you have playing behind him if this is your QBOTF. Unless you truly believe the Broncos could still make the playoffs. I don't.

This reminds me of the 1995 Oilers who were getting a great year out of Chris Chandler on a really terrible Houston team. On the bench, they had Steve McNair, their #1 draft choice. With three games left in the season, they let McNair start and he made a bunch of rookie mistakes. But I doubt Jeff Fisher regretted the switch.

Softskull
11-13-2010, 05:44 PM
Didn't see this anywhere in the forum . . .


http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_16588205

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This guy makes terrible assumptions. Orton just isn't a clutch guy. It's not about not having a rushing game. On 3rd and short, Orton is 28th in the NFL (28.6%). He's not making the plays at short or long ranged 3rd downs. And it's not just about blow out games either. Orton is 20th in pass completion in a close game.

topscribe
11-13-2010, 07:28 PM
This guy makes terrible assumptions. Orton just isn't a clutch guy. It's not about not having a rushing game. On 3rd and short, Orton is 28th in the NFL (28.6%). He's not making the plays at short or long ranged 3rd downs. And it's not just about blow out games either. Orton is 20th in pass completion in a close game.

These are pretty general. How about something more specific? Such as, what is
3rd & short? Less than 3 yards? 4 yards? 5 yards? What is a "close" game? Less
than 3 points? 7 points? 10 points?

On third and short, are you including all the plays or passing plays alone? What
are the sample sizes? And how about citing the sources?

-----

topscribe
11-13-2010, 09:13 PM
This guy makes terrible assumptions. Orton just isn't a clutch guy. It's not about not having a rushing game. On 3rd and short, Orton is 28th in the NFL (28.6%). He's not making the plays at short or long ranged 3rd downs. And it's not just about blow out games either. Orton is 20th in pass completion in a close game.


These are pretty general. How about something more specific? Such as, what is
3rd & short? Less than 3 yards? 4 yards? 5 yards? What is a "close" game? Less
than 3 points? 7 points? 10 points?

On third and short, are you including all the plays or passing plays alone? What
are the sample sizes? And how about citing the sources?

-----

Okay, here's what I found. In 2010:

In 3rd down and 3 yards or less, Kyle has passed only 7 times. He completed only 2,
but that is not a large enough sample size do draw any kind of conclusion. That
is borne out in the longer distances:

In 3rd and 3-7, Orton passed 36 times, completing 22 for 61.1% comp and 87.2 QBR.

In 3rd and 8-10, he passed 18 times, completing 10 for 55.6% and 100.2 QBR.

In 3rd and 11+, he passed 14 times, completing 9 for 64.3% and 47.9 QBR.
(Sounds low, but P. Manning's QBR at that distance on 3rd down is 30.9.)

Again, I don't know what should be considered a "close" game, but Orton's QBR with
the game tied has been 90.6.

http://nfl.fanhouse.com/player/kyle/orton/7282/situational-stats/


Just a couple more interesting statistics:

Orton ranks #6 according to DVOA (value per play).
Orton ranks #3 according to DYAR (total value).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb


Now, I know there are those who say the stats don't mean a thing, but I perceive
that part of that is because the stats make such a strong case for Orton. But this
is why the likes of HOFers Lenny Dawson and John Elway like Orton and why such
writers as the immensely respected Legwold back him. They understand playing
situations and conditions . . .


P.S. I will qualify these stats by saying that even these are not complete, and it is
possible that the results that we would be looking for could be significantly different,
once all the factors are put together.

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Cugel
11-14-2010, 12:28 AM
This guy makes terrible assumptions. Orton just isn't a clutch guy. It's not about not having a rushing game. On 3rd and short, Orton is 28th in the NFL (28.6%). He's not making the plays at short or long ranged 3rd downs. And it's not just about blow out games either. Orton is 20th in pass completion in a close game.

You're wrong. :coffee:

What do teams DO in 3rd and short? Hmmmmn?

They RUN the ball and pick up the first down! Can Denver do that consistently?

NO! :coffee:

They're averaging about 2 yards a carry. And on 3rd downs, you have to be able to reliably pick up a couple of yards.

So, what do you defend if you're the defense? Orton. Regardless of down & distance, you look for the Broncos to pass first. And THEN play the run.

Not terribly surprising that the Broncos suck at 3rd downs. They suck at pretty much everything, including punting. I wouldn't be surprised if the water boys were ranked 28th in the league. :coffee:

Canmore
11-14-2010, 12:32 AM
...I wouldn't be surprised if the water boys were ranked 28th in the league. :coffee:

That would be ranking them too high.:D

Watchthemiddle
11-14-2010, 09:49 PM
Counting todays game...

Orton has a 96.4 QB rating, thrown the ball 350 times, only has 5 ints, 2806 yards, avgs 8.0 yards a completion, 16 touchdowns, and most importantly, has GREAT chemistry with his WR's.

BroncoStud
11-14-2010, 10:23 PM
Orton was very good today. This is how the games need to go. You need to keep pressure off of Orton, pressure to score, pressure to shootout, even just pressure in the pocket. If Denver could do this every week Orton might be the best QB in the NFL.

This week he played very well. He was never forced to make a game-winning play or something of the like. Just need to keep pressure off of him.

topscribe
11-14-2010, 10:36 PM
Orton was very good today. This is how the games need to go. You need to keep pressure off of Orton, pressure to score, pressure to shootout, even just pressure in the pocket. If Denver could do this every week Orton might be the best QB in the NFL.

This week he played very well. He was never forced to make a game-winning play or something of the like. Just need to keep pressure off of him.

:faint:

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KCL
11-14-2010, 11:01 PM
Orton was very good today. This is how the games need to go. You need to keep pressure off of Orton, pressure to score, pressure to shootout, even just pressure in the pocket. If Denver could do this every week Orton might be the best QB in the NFL.

This week he played very well. He was never forced to make a game-winning play or something of the like. Just need to keep pressure off of him.

With the way KC played today...JaMarcus Russell would have had a field day.

BroncoStud
11-14-2010, 11:34 PM
With the way KC played today...JaMarcus Russell would have had a field day.

Russell ate our lunch last year. It's been known to happen. :defense:

Softskull
11-14-2010, 11:49 PM
You're wrong. :coffee:

What do teams DO in 3rd and short? Hmmmmn?

They RUN the ball and pick up the first down! Can Denver do that consistently?



Actually, all the stats there were correct. And Orton isn't a clutch guy.

http://stats.masslive.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Passing&rank=042&year=

KCL
11-15-2010, 12:00 AM
Russell ate our lunch last year. It's been known to happen. :defense:

Yep it does...He beat us last year also..dude can throw..just not at a
receiver...:lol:

BroncoStud
11-15-2010, 12:11 AM
Yep it does...He beat us last year also..dude can throw..just not at a
receiver...:lol:

I bet he can throw down some buffet. :eek:

KCL
11-15-2010, 12:12 AM
I bet he can throw down some buffet. :eek:

I'll take Crennel for the win...:lol: