MOtorboat
07-06-2008, 08:02 PM
Welcome to a new installment for the BroncosForums.com Articles section: MissouriBronc bumbling his way through Fantasy Football. I start, of course, with the quarterbacks and my pre-season rankings.
Warning: If you finish last in your Fantasy League because of my rankings, I am in no way culpable. (And besides, if you finish last because you used my rankings, then that probably means I did too…)
P.S. For points/stats, I am using fairly standard Fantasy league rules, which for quarterbacks are 4 points per touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards and two subtracted points for every interception. I’ll try to include my full projections since many leagues, including the ones I play in across the board, play with different point systems. (Dog’s league will be a new one for me, mostly touchdown-based, I’m looking forward to it).
P.S.S. I’ll post my predictions in a list in the second post of this thread.
P.S.S.S. There are a few players that aren’t on this list, because I just had an “incomplete” going through my mind. (Yes, I left JaMarcus Russell, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco and Brady Quinn off of here…trust me, at the beginning of the season, they aren’t starting for you :D)
On to the rankings:
1.) Tom Brady – How can Tom Brady not be No. 1 on the list of quarterbacks for Fantasy owners heading into this season? Draft strategy aside (we’ll talk about that some other time), Brady is the man you want leading your fantasy team. He threw 50 touchdowns last year, and while I don’t think he’s going to do that again, I can foresee something in the range of 4,500 yards, 42 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, outdistancing everyone with 328 points.
2.) Peyton Manning – OK, no surprises up at the top of these rankings. Pey, Pey is going to do what he always does. He’s going to throw early and often, and as he showed last year, it doesn’t matter who’s catching the ball, he’s going to be a top fantasy quarterback. Last year saw him just barely eclipse 4,000 yards for the eighth time in his 10 year career. Well, make that 11 out of 13. I see him eclipsing 4,100 yards with over 30 touchdowns (31) and 15 interceptions. He’ll obviously be one of the most efficient quarterbacks as well. I see him with 258 in the system I’m using.
3.) Tony Romo – I don’t think it’s a fluke. You can say what you want off the field about the guy, but he’s leading a top-flight offense. He had the second-most fantasy points for quarterbacks last year, and I see him coming in third this year. He’ll go over 4,100 yards (4,211 last year), and probably have around 30 touchdowns, but his interceptions will put him below Manning. He threw 19 last year, and I think he’ll gamble even a little more this year and have 22. That’s 240 fantasy points for those keeping track.
4.) Drew Brees – Probably the most under-rated quarterback in the league. I still think San Diego was crazy for getting rid of him and going with Philip Rivers over this gunslinger. He threw for 4,423 yards and 28 touchdowns last year. That’s no joke. I see him going over 4,100 yards this year as well, but I think he’ll have fewer touchdowns than Manning and Romo (25), and be a little more efficient than Romo, with 15 interceptions.
5.) Ben Roethlisberger – The talk about the Steelers is always their running game, but Roethlisberger is a heck of a fantasy quarterback, too. I see him going over 3,700 yards, with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’s becoming more and more efficient as he matures, evident by his 104.1 quarterback rating last year. The Steelers don’t pass as often as other teams, but the efficient Roethlisberger will garner you 234 points.
6.) Carson Palmer – 2007 was a rough year for the Bengals, as they didn’t live up to expectations, but Palmer is still a top fantasy option for your club. I see him going over 4,000 yards, for the third straight year, with 27 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. I don’t think that the off-season talk of Chad Johnson leaving is going to come to fruition, and I think that will still benefit Palmer. I see him with 232 points.
7.) Matt Hasselbeck – Quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I see him going for 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions, and 216 points for your team. He’s an efficient quarterback, completing 62.6 percent of his passes, and not throwing a lot of interceptions. He stays within the Holmgren system and uses it to his advantage. He’s a great option for your team.
8.) Brett Favre – Well, I spent about 20 minutes debating with myself if I would leave him on the list. As you can see, I did. He had a spectacular year last year, and though I don’t think he’ll have as good of a year this year, I can see him going for 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns, if he does choose to return. That’s 212 points, a pretty good number for a guy who is retired as I write this.
9.) Derek Anderson – I don’t think Anderson’s 2007 was a fluke. He was a very competent quarterback. The only warning sign I see from him is his completion percentage – by far the lowest of any of my top 10 at 56.5. I think he’ll improve the completion percentage, and I think he’ll be around 3,600 yards and 25 touchdowns, down a little from last year, but still a top fantasy quarterback, with 210 points.
10.) Jay Cutler – Call it the homer pick, but I think Cutler is a Top 10 fantasy quarterback, and should be a front line starter in just about every league. His completion percentage is stellar, and I see it improving in his third year in the league. I see him going for 3,600 yards and 22 touchdowns, while continuing to improve on his decision making with 13 interceptions, good for 206 points.
11.) Eli Manning – Manning proved that he’s a Super Bowl winner. He also proved that he can be a starter for your fantasy team (as if that mattered to him). I think Manning will eclipse 3,400 yards this season and throw 25 touchdowns. I do think he’ll have 17 interceptions, down from last year, for a 202 points.
12.) Jake Delhomme – 2007 was a rough year for Delhomme, who was injured for most of the year. I expect for him to grab the starting job back, and if he manages to get through the whole season, I can see him going for 3,300 yards and 23 touchdowns, with just 14 interceptions, good for 196 points.
13.) David Garrard – It’s hard to put Garrard this low on the list, seeing how efficient he was last year, but keep in mind he also didn’t score a ton of points. He was efficient, but had just 18 touchdowns, with 3 interceptions. I see him going for 3,200 yards (up from last year), 21 touchdowns (up) and eight interceptions (down), for 196 points. Definitely a possible starter on a team in a 12-team league.
14.) Marc Bulger – We start to hit our fantasy backups (in one-starting quarterback leagues) with Bulger. Bulger had a down year last year, and I see him bouncing back with over 3,300 yards and 20 touchdowns, while throwing just 11 touchdowns.
15.) Chad Pennington – My top 15 ends with a player who may not even be the starter for his own team. Personally, I feel Pennington is a better option at quarterback for the Jets than Kellen Clemens, but obviously, I’m not the guy making the decision. If he does start, I see 190 points, with 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns, with just 11 interceptions.
The rest:
16.) Donovan McNabb, 188 points.
17.) Brian Griese, 178
18.) Jon Kitna, 174
19.) Kurt Warner, 172
20.) Matt Schaub, 172
21.) Philip Rivers, 172
22.) Jeff Garcia, 168
23.) J.P. Losman, 160
24.) Rex Grossman, 158
25.) Jason Campbell, 152
26.) Trent Edwards, 152
27.) Matt Leinart, 148
28.) Alex Smith, 142
29.) Kellen Clemens, 140
30.) Kyle Orton, 124
31.) Vince Young, 124
32.) Tarvaris Jackson, 110
33.) Brodie Croyle, 110
34.) Kyle Boller, 108
35.) Aaron Rodgers, 102
P.S.S.S.S. Keep in mind these are my predictions for these players if they play the entire season…
Warning: If you finish last in your Fantasy League because of my rankings, I am in no way culpable. (And besides, if you finish last because you used my rankings, then that probably means I did too…)
P.S. For points/stats, I am using fairly standard Fantasy league rules, which for quarterbacks are 4 points per touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards and two subtracted points for every interception. I’ll try to include my full projections since many leagues, including the ones I play in across the board, play with different point systems. (Dog’s league will be a new one for me, mostly touchdown-based, I’m looking forward to it).
P.S.S. I’ll post my predictions in a list in the second post of this thread.
P.S.S.S. There are a few players that aren’t on this list, because I just had an “incomplete” going through my mind. (Yes, I left JaMarcus Russell, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco and Brady Quinn off of here…trust me, at the beginning of the season, they aren’t starting for you :D)
On to the rankings:
1.) Tom Brady – How can Tom Brady not be No. 1 on the list of quarterbacks for Fantasy owners heading into this season? Draft strategy aside (we’ll talk about that some other time), Brady is the man you want leading your fantasy team. He threw 50 touchdowns last year, and while I don’t think he’s going to do that again, I can foresee something in the range of 4,500 yards, 42 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, outdistancing everyone with 328 points.
2.) Peyton Manning – OK, no surprises up at the top of these rankings. Pey, Pey is going to do what he always does. He’s going to throw early and often, and as he showed last year, it doesn’t matter who’s catching the ball, he’s going to be a top fantasy quarterback. Last year saw him just barely eclipse 4,000 yards for the eighth time in his 10 year career. Well, make that 11 out of 13. I see him eclipsing 4,100 yards with over 30 touchdowns (31) and 15 interceptions. He’ll obviously be one of the most efficient quarterbacks as well. I see him with 258 in the system I’m using.
3.) Tony Romo – I don’t think it’s a fluke. You can say what you want off the field about the guy, but he’s leading a top-flight offense. He had the second-most fantasy points for quarterbacks last year, and I see him coming in third this year. He’ll go over 4,100 yards (4,211 last year), and probably have around 30 touchdowns, but his interceptions will put him below Manning. He threw 19 last year, and I think he’ll gamble even a little more this year and have 22. That’s 240 fantasy points for those keeping track.
4.) Drew Brees – Probably the most under-rated quarterback in the league. I still think San Diego was crazy for getting rid of him and going with Philip Rivers over this gunslinger. He threw for 4,423 yards and 28 touchdowns last year. That’s no joke. I see him going over 4,100 yards this year as well, but I think he’ll have fewer touchdowns than Manning and Romo (25), and be a little more efficient than Romo, with 15 interceptions.
5.) Ben Roethlisberger – The talk about the Steelers is always their running game, but Roethlisberger is a heck of a fantasy quarterback, too. I see him going over 3,700 yards, with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’s becoming more and more efficient as he matures, evident by his 104.1 quarterback rating last year. The Steelers don’t pass as often as other teams, but the efficient Roethlisberger will garner you 234 points.
6.) Carson Palmer – 2007 was a rough year for the Bengals, as they didn’t live up to expectations, but Palmer is still a top fantasy option for your club. I see him going over 4,000 yards, for the third straight year, with 27 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. I don’t think that the off-season talk of Chad Johnson leaving is going to come to fruition, and I think that will still benefit Palmer. I see him with 232 points.
7.) Matt Hasselbeck – Quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I see him going for 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions, and 216 points for your team. He’s an efficient quarterback, completing 62.6 percent of his passes, and not throwing a lot of interceptions. He stays within the Holmgren system and uses it to his advantage. He’s a great option for your team.
8.) Brett Favre – Well, I spent about 20 minutes debating with myself if I would leave him on the list. As you can see, I did. He had a spectacular year last year, and though I don’t think he’ll have as good of a year this year, I can see him going for 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns, if he does choose to return. That’s 212 points, a pretty good number for a guy who is retired as I write this.
9.) Derek Anderson – I don’t think Anderson’s 2007 was a fluke. He was a very competent quarterback. The only warning sign I see from him is his completion percentage – by far the lowest of any of my top 10 at 56.5. I think he’ll improve the completion percentage, and I think he’ll be around 3,600 yards and 25 touchdowns, down a little from last year, but still a top fantasy quarterback, with 210 points.
10.) Jay Cutler – Call it the homer pick, but I think Cutler is a Top 10 fantasy quarterback, and should be a front line starter in just about every league. His completion percentage is stellar, and I see it improving in his third year in the league. I see him going for 3,600 yards and 22 touchdowns, while continuing to improve on his decision making with 13 interceptions, good for 206 points.
11.) Eli Manning – Manning proved that he’s a Super Bowl winner. He also proved that he can be a starter for your fantasy team (as if that mattered to him). I think Manning will eclipse 3,400 yards this season and throw 25 touchdowns. I do think he’ll have 17 interceptions, down from last year, for a 202 points.
12.) Jake Delhomme – 2007 was a rough year for Delhomme, who was injured for most of the year. I expect for him to grab the starting job back, and if he manages to get through the whole season, I can see him going for 3,300 yards and 23 touchdowns, with just 14 interceptions, good for 196 points.
13.) David Garrard – It’s hard to put Garrard this low on the list, seeing how efficient he was last year, but keep in mind he also didn’t score a ton of points. He was efficient, but had just 18 touchdowns, with 3 interceptions. I see him going for 3,200 yards (up from last year), 21 touchdowns (up) and eight interceptions (down), for 196 points. Definitely a possible starter on a team in a 12-team league.
14.) Marc Bulger – We start to hit our fantasy backups (in one-starting quarterback leagues) with Bulger. Bulger had a down year last year, and I see him bouncing back with over 3,300 yards and 20 touchdowns, while throwing just 11 touchdowns.
15.) Chad Pennington – My top 15 ends with a player who may not even be the starter for his own team. Personally, I feel Pennington is a better option at quarterback for the Jets than Kellen Clemens, but obviously, I’m not the guy making the decision. If he does start, I see 190 points, with 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns, with just 11 interceptions.
The rest:
16.) Donovan McNabb, 188 points.
17.) Brian Griese, 178
18.) Jon Kitna, 174
19.) Kurt Warner, 172
20.) Matt Schaub, 172
21.) Philip Rivers, 172
22.) Jeff Garcia, 168
23.) J.P. Losman, 160
24.) Rex Grossman, 158
25.) Jason Campbell, 152
26.) Trent Edwards, 152
27.) Matt Leinart, 148
28.) Alex Smith, 142
29.) Kellen Clemens, 140
30.) Kyle Orton, 124
31.) Vince Young, 124
32.) Tarvaris Jackson, 110
33.) Brodie Croyle, 110
34.) Kyle Boller, 108
35.) Aaron Rodgers, 102
P.S.S.S.S. Keep in mind these are my predictions for these players if they play the entire season…