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MOtorboat
07-06-2008, 09:02 PM
Welcome to a new installment for the BroncosForums.com Articles section: MissouriBronc bumbling his way through Fantasy Football. I start, of course, with the quarterbacks and my pre-season rankings.

Warning: If you finish last in your Fantasy League because of my rankings, I am in no way culpable. (And besides, if you finish last because you used my rankings, then that probably means I did tooÖ)

P.S. For points/stats, I am using fairly standard Fantasy league rules, which for quarterbacks are 4 points per touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards and two subtracted points for every interception. Iíll try to include my full projections since many leagues, including the ones I play in across the board, play with different point systems. (Dogís league will be a new one for me, mostly touchdown-based, Iím looking forward to it).

P.S.S. Iíll post my predictions in a list in the second post of this thread.

P.S.S.S. There are a few players that arenít on this list, because I just had an ďincompleteĒ going through my mind. (Yes, I left JaMarcus Russell, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco and Brady Quinn off of hereÖtrust me, at the beginning of the season, they arenít starting for you :D)

On to the rankings:

1.) Tom Brady Ė How can Tom Brady not be No. 1 on the list of quarterbacks for Fantasy owners heading into this season? Draft strategy aside (weíll talk about that some other time), Brady is the man you want leading your fantasy team. He threw 50 touchdowns last year, and while I donít think heís going to do that again, I can foresee something in the range of 4,500 yards, 42 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, outdistancing everyone with 328 points.

2.) Peyton Manning Ė OK, no surprises up at the top of these rankings. Pey, Pey is going to do what he always does. Heís going to throw early and often, and as he showed last year, it doesnít matter whoís catching the ball, heís going to be a top fantasy quarterback. Last year saw him just barely eclipse 4,000 yards for the eighth time in his 10 year career. Well, make that 11 out of 13. I see him eclipsing 4,100 yards with over 30 touchdowns (31) and 15 interceptions. Heíll obviously be one of the most efficient quarterbacks as well. I see him with 258 in the system Iím using.

3.) Tony Romo Ė I donít think itís a fluke. You can say what you want off the field about the guy, but heís leading a top-flight offense. He had the second-most fantasy points for quarterbacks last year, and I see him coming in third this year. Heíll go over 4,100 yards (4,211 last year), and probably have around 30 touchdowns, but his interceptions will put him below Manning. He threw 19 last year, and I think heíll gamble even a little more this year and have 22. Thatís 240 fantasy points for those keeping track.

4.) Drew Brees Ė Probably the most under-rated quarterback in the league. I still think San Diego was crazy for getting rid of him and going with Philip Rivers over this gunslinger. He threw for 4,423 yards and 28 touchdowns last year. Thatís no joke. I see him going over 4,100 yards this year as well, but I think heíll have fewer touchdowns than Manning and Romo (25), and be a little more efficient than Romo, with 15 interceptions.

5.) Ben Roethlisberger Ė The talk about the Steelers is always their running game, but Roethlisberger is a heck of a fantasy quarterback, too. I see him going over 3,700 yards, with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Heís becoming more and more efficient as he matures, evident by his 104.1 quarterback rating last year. The Steelers donít pass as often as other teams, but the efficient Roethlisberger will garner you 234 points.

6.) Carson Palmer Ė 2007 was a rough year for the Bengals, as they didnít live up to expectations, but Palmer is still a top fantasy option for your club. I see him going over 4,000 yards, for the third straight year, with 27 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. I donít think that the off-season talk of Chad Johnson leaving is going to come to fruition, and I think that will still benefit Palmer. I see him with 232 points.

7.) Matt Hasselbeck Ė Quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I see him going for 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions, and 216 points for your team. Heís an efficient quarterback, completing 62.6 percent of his passes, and not throwing a lot of interceptions. He stays within the Holmgren system and uses it to his advantage. Heís a great option for your team.

8.) Brett Favre Ė Well, I spent about 20 minutes debating with myself if I would leave him on the list. As you can see, I did. He had a spectacular year last year, and though I donít think heíll have as good of a year this year, I can see him going for 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns, if he does choose to return. Thatís 212 points, a pretty good number for a guy who is retired as I write this.

9.) Derek Anderson Ė I donít think Andersonís 2007 was a fluke. He was a very competent quarterback. The only warning sign I see from him is his completion percentage Ė by far the lowest of any of my top 10 at 56.5. I think heíll improve the completion percentage, and I think heíll be around 3,600 yards and 25 touchdowns, down a little from last year, but still a top fantasy quarterback, with 210 points.

10.) Jay Cutler Ė Call it the homer pick, but I think Cutler is a Top 10 fantasy quarterback, and should be a front line starter in just about every league. His completion percentage is stellar, and I see it improving in his third year in the league. I see him going for 3,600 yards and 22 touchdowns, while continuing to improve on his decision making with 13 interceptions, good for 206 points.

11.) Eli Manning Ė Manning proved that heís a Super Bowl winner. He also proved that he can be a starter for your fantasy team (as if that mattered to him). I think Manning will eclipse 3,400 yards this season and throw 25 touchdowns. I do think heíll have 17 interceptions, down from last year, for a 202 points.

12.) Jake Delhomme Ė 2007 was a rough year for Delhomme, who was injured for most of the year. I expect for him to grab the starting job back, and if he manages to get through the whole season, I can see him going for 3,300 yards and 23 touchdowns, with just 14 interceptions, good for 196 points.

13.) David Garrard Ė Itís hard to put Garrard this low on the list, seeing how efficient he was last year, but keep in mind he also didnít score a ton of points. He was efficient, but had just 18 touchdowns, with 3 interceptions. I see him going for 3,200 yards (up from last year), 21 touchdowns (up) and eight interceptions (down), for 196 points. Definitely a possible starter on a team in a 12-team league.

14.) Marc Bulger Ė We start to hit our fantasy backups (in one-starting quarterback leagues) with Bulger. Bulger had a down year last year, and I see him bouncing back with over 3,300 yards and 20 touchdowns, while throwing just 11 touchdowns.

15.) Chad Pennington Ė My top 15 ends with a player who may not even be the starter for his own team. Personally, I feel Pennington is a better option at quarterback for the Jets than Kellen Clemens, but obviously, Iím not the guy making the decision. If he does start, I see 190 points, with 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns, with just 11 interceptions.

The rest:

16.) Donovan McNabb, 188 points.
17.) Brian Griese, 178
18.) Jon Kitna, 174
19.) Kurt Warner, 172
20.) Matt Schaub, 172
21.) Philip Rivers, 172
22.) Jeff Garcia, 168
23.) J.P. Losman, 160
24.) Rex Grossman, 158
25.) Jason Campbell, 152
26.) Trent Edwards, 152
27.) Matt Leinart, 148
28.) Alex Smith, 142
29.) Kellen Clemens, 140
30.) Kyle Orton, 124
31.) Vince Young, 124
32.) Tarvaris Jackson, 110
33.) Brodie Croyle, 110
34.) Kyle Boller, 108
35.) Aaron Rodgers, 102

P.S.S.S.S. Keep in mind these are my predictions for these players if they play the entire seasonÖ

atwater27
07-06-2008, 10:55 PM
Nice list.
I think McNabb, if he stays healthy, will vault into the top 10.

bengaaaaals1688
07-07-2008, 01:23 AM
Call it homerism, but I fully expect Palmer to throw upwards of 30 TD's, maybe somewhere around 35 or so and many less INT's than last season. He is usually much more efficient and makes much better throws than he did last season, so I would expect somewhere around 13-14 at the most, personally.

As for Anderson, I believe it was a fluke. At the end of the season he tailed off completely and seemed to lose whatever it was that drove him to success earlier. I expect more of the same as the end of the season from him this season.

MOtorboat
07-07-2008, 01:34 AM
Call it homerism, but I fully expect Palmer to throw upwards of 30 TD's, maybe somewhere around 35 or so and many less INT's than last season. He is usually much more efficient and makes much better throws than he did last season, so I would expect somewhere around 13-14 at the most, personally.

As for Anderson, I believe it was a fluke. At the end of the season he tailed off completely and seemed to lose whatever it was that drove him to success earlier. I expect more of the same as the end of the season from him this season.

Both good assessments.

Carson has been statistically above his output last year his first three years in the league, specifically years 2 and 3. He's a good quarterback, most probably an elite quarterback, but he just doesn't have the "it" that Brady and Manning have, at least yet. Part of it may be the characters around him. He's an astute student of the game, and he's going to get better, I just don't know if this is the year.

Anderson did trail off, but (at least until it happens) I'm not a Brady Quinn fan, and Anderson convinced me he's the real deal...

bengaaaaals1688
07-07-2008, 01:39 AM
Both good assessments.

Carson has been statistically above his output last year his first three years in the league, specifically years 2 and 3. He's a good quarterback, most probably an elite quarterback, but he just doesn't have the "it" that Brady and Manning have, at least yet. Part of it may be the characters around him. He's an astute student of the game, and he's going to get better, I just don't know if this is the year.

Anderson did trail off, but (at least until it happens) I'm not a Brady Quinn fan, and Anderson convinced me he's the real deal...

Having watched Palmer many many times, I believe he has that "it" factor. He has gotten the short end of the stick on numerous occasions, most specifically when it comes to the severe lack of defense, but he is respected by the players on the team and he has all the tools to be just as good as Brady and Manning, at least IMO.

I think Brady Quinn will be terrible as a pro QB, to be honest. I just don't see him as being all that he is cracked up to be. As for Anderson, I think once he was figured out he lost it, and I don't expect this year to be any different. But hey, that's what the season is for right??:salute:

dogfish
07-07-2008, 02:45 AM
solid assesment overall-- there are some things i don't agree with, but i'm not going to discuss them with somebody who's in one of my leagues. . . . :D


one thing i will say, though-- i'm usually death on broncos homerism, but i absolutely believe that cutler dseserves a top-ten ranking. . . .

Broncos Mtnman
07-10-2008, 10:01 PM
Hey MB,

When you gonna do the RBs? I have to make some keeper decisions in dogfish's league and want to make sure I make the right call.

By the way, good evaluation. :2thumbs:

dogfish
07-10-2008, 10:49 PM
Hey MB,

When you gonna do the RBs? I have to make some keeper decisions in dogfish's league and want to make sure I make the right call.

By the way, good evaluation. :2thumbs:


why wait for the midget? i'll be glad to advise you who to keep. . . .

Broncos Mtnman
07-10-2008, 10:51 PM
why wait for the midget? i'll be glad to advise you who to keep. . . .

Could there be an alterior motive for your offer? :lol:

dogfish
07-10-2008, 10:55 PM
Could there be an alterior motive for your offer? :lol:


just trying to help out. . .

Broncos Mtnman
07-10-2008, 11:04 PM
just trying to help out. . .

My quandry is this....

My QB is Hasselbeck
My RBs are Westbrook and Barber
My WRs are R. Wayne and A. Johnson
My TE is D. Clark

As you know, we can only keep three, so I was thinking of keeping Johnson, Westbrook and Barber. I'm thinking Barber is going to put up bigger numbers since he's the #1 guy in Dallas now.

Westbrook is a no-brainer with his pass/run abilities.

Johnson was hurt last year, but was huge when he played. Wayne was big, but that was with Harrison on the bench. Now that he's back, I'm thinking Wayne and Clark will have smaller numbers.

Then there's Hasselbeck. He was great for me last year, but I had to trade for him (I think I got him from you as a matter of fact) when Bulger got hurt, which brings up another question. Bulger is usually a great fantasy QB, so should I keep him?

So, what do you think?

dogfish
07-10-2008, 11:08 PM
My quandry is this....

My QB is Hasselbeck
My RBs are Westbrook and Barber
My WRs are R. Wayne and A. Johnson
My TE is D. Clark

As you know, we can only keep three, so I was thinking of keeping Johnson, Westbrook and Barber. I'm thinking Barber is going to put up bigger numbers since he's the #1 guy in Dallas now.

Westbrook is a no-brainer with his pass/run abilities.

Johnson was hurt last year, but was huge when he played. Wayne was big, but that was with Harrison on the bench. Now that he's back, I'm thinking Wayne and Clark will have smaller numbers.

Then there's Hasselbeck. He was great for me last year, but I had to trade for him (I think I got him from you as a matter of fact) when Bulger got hurt, which brings up another question. Bulger is usually a great fantasy QB, so should I keep him?

So, what do you think?


honestly? i was just messin' with ya, no way i can give an impartial opinion on a league i play in. . . . :D


i really don't see how you can go wrong with any of those guys, though-- it's kinda six of one, half dozen of the other. . .

Broncos Mtnman
07-10-2008, 11:12 PM
honestly? i was just messin' with ya, no way i can give an impartial opinion on a league i play in. . . . :D


i really don't see how you can go wrong with any of those guys, though-- it's kinda six of one, half dozen of the other. . .

Guess you got me on that one... :mad:

Can't wait till we get this season started.

:beer:

Skinny
07-11-2008, 12:01 PM
Good ranking.

And to think Drew Brees actually had a slow start to last season.

First 8 games: 1,730 ... 9 TDs ... 10 int

Last 8 games: 2,693 ... 19 TDs ... 8 int

He has the ability to put up some monster FF points.

It will be interesting to see how much Marvin Harrison has left in the tank, and Terry Glenn too. Two WRs that will have a big impact on their QB #s.

If it's any kind of drop, with the young guns Drew has around him, it might be enough for Brees to slide up behind Brady as FF 2nd best QB this year.

turftoad
07-11-2008, 12:04 PM
Good ranking.

And to think Drew Brees actually had a slow start to last season.

First 8 games: 1,730 ... 9 TDs ... 10 int

Last 8 games: 2,693 ... 19 TDs ... 8 int

He has the ability to put up some monster FF points.

It will be interesting to see how much Marvin Harrison has left in the tank, and Terry Glenn too. Two WRs that will have a big impact on their QB #s.

If it's any kind of drop, with the young guns Drew has around him, it might be enough for Brees to slide up behind Brady as FF 2nd best QB this year.


Agreed. Colston is a stud and Meacham should be good this year. He should be healthy and be able to help Brees's #s this year. He looked good in the offseason.

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