2008 MLB Draft

[MOtorboat]

2 Eastern...

Where does your team pick...who do you want?

[MOtorboat]

Royals Draft Third.

I really would like to see them get Posey, because I don't think Buck is ever going to hit like Posey can. I wouldn't mind to draft Alvarez...but that's ANOTHER third baseman in the Royals organization...

[MHCBill]

I'd like to see the Phillies take a college bat... kind of tired of the "toolsy" high school kids.

Too many question marks to know who may fall to them, but a college bat would be nice.

I think the Royals will take Matusz. Never can have too much pitching, and they need it.

[MHCBill]

If you're the Rays... who do you take?

No clear cut #1 imo... Beckham, Alvarez, Posey, Matusz, Crow, Smoak...

[MOtorboat]

If you're the Rays... who do you take?

No clear cut #1 imo... Beckham, Alvarez, Posey, Matusz, Crow, Smoak...

I really like Posey, but Alvarez is a switch-hitter, but he's automatically pigeon-holed behind Longoria. I guess you could move him to right, because Cliff Floyd isn't the long-term answer there.

Watching Navarro last night, I'd think Posey could replace him in a few years. His throwing arm sucks.

But...knowing their history, they may go with Beckham.

[Flatinum]

Reds draft 7th.

Hopefully they can grab Canadian Prepster Brett Lawrie. He'd go nice with their other Canadian Joey Votto.

[MOtorboat]

Reds draft 7th.

Hopefully they can grab Canadian Prepster Brett Lawrie. He'd go nice with their other Canadian Joey Votto.

I don't think they should spend their first-round pick on him at 7, but they don't have a pick again until 84.

[BroncoWave]

Buster Posey is incredible. I can't see how you wouldn't pick him first. And this is coming from a Tulane fan who saw him tear us apart in the super regionals. His numbers were just plain sick this season. I'd also like to see Tulane pitcher Shooter Hunt get drafted high.

[MOtorboat]

Buster Posey is incredible. I can't see how you wouldn't pick him first. And this is coming from a Tulane fan who saw him tear us apart in the super regionals. His numbers were just plain sick this season. I'd also like to see Tulane pitcher Shooter Hunt get drafted high.

Hunt could go Top 10.

I would love to see Posey drop to 3. The Royals need a good hitting catcher. I'm hoping the Rays penchant for drafting high school kids will continue to hold true, and that Alvarez does go to the Pirates.

[MOtorboat]

Two local kids here that I've seen personally.

Joe Kassanavoid, P, Lawson High School. Throws low 90s, and is 6-6.

Johnny Coy, OF, Benton High School. Pretty decent hitter.

Kassanavoid is signed on as an "athlete" (should play S) at Kansas State.

Coy is signed to play basketball for Arizona State. Probably a SG. I think he's 6-7.

[BOSSHOGG30]

The St. Petersburg Times reports that the Rays will take high school SS Tim Beckham with the No. 1 pick in Thursday's draft.

Instead of filling a need at catcher with Buster Posey, the Rays will apparently go with the Beckham, a five-tool player who is said to have plenty of baseball smarts and superstar upside. Part of this could be due to Posey supposedly floating $12 million as his asking price.
Source: St. Petersburg Times

[Flatinum]

I don't think they should spend their first-round pick on him at 7, but they don't have a pick again until 84.

Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks the Reds should take this kid.

7. Cincinnati
The Reds are lining up to throw the first real curveball of the first round. They have been heavily scouting the top group of college sluggers, as well as Gordon Beckham, while also dreaming of a scenario that would drop either Matusz or Crow to them. However, a surprising new name has entered the mix -- the Reds were in hard on Canadian prepster Brett Lawrie after he went off with eight home runs in eight games against professionals in the Dominican, and they came back with reports encouraging enough to prompt a quickly-scheduled private workout on Tuesday afternoon. As one scouting director put it, "If there's anyone who can improve his stock with a private workout, it's Lawrie." Assuming all went as expected, the surprises start at lucky number seven. If they decide to play it safe, Alonso is currently at the top of their board.

Selection: Brett Lawrie, INF, Brookswood SS (BC)

[BOSSHOGG30]

I really like Justin Jeising. I would keep my eyes out for him.

[BOSSHOGG30]

Where do you guys see Ryan Perry out of U of A going? I like this kid a lot too. Very good fastball with movement and great power curve ball.

[MHCBill]

Where do you think "Stinky's" kid will go?

Probably second round...

[MHCBill]

The St. Petersburg Times reports that the Rays will take high school SS Tim Beckham with the No. 1 pick in Thursday's draft.

Instead of filling a need at catcher with Buster Posey, the Rays will apparently go with the Beckham, a five-tool player who is said to have plenty of baseball smarts and superstar upside. Part of this could be due to Posey supposedly floating $12 million as his asking price.
Source: St. Petersburg TimesI think this would be a mistake.

Posey seems like the best fit. A year or two in the minors and he should be ready to go. Catchers are at a premium to find.

Unless Beckham has Upton like tools I would pass.

[BOSSHOGG30]

1. Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin High School (GA)

What To Expect: In a tight race for the title of number one overall pick, Beckham has a slight edge over Buster Posey and Pedro Alvarez. According to sources, he's likely the leading candidate going into Thursday. Now, of course, we need to consider where he may go if the Rays take their top choice and use it on someone else. The Pittsburgh Pirates appear to have their sights set on Pedro Alvarez at this point, and would be likely to pass on Beckham. Their fan base is craving a player who can help in a hurry and Beckham may not be that guy. With that in mind, Beckham would be an attractive option for both Kansas City and Baltimore at picks three and four respectively. The Giants at pick number five have not shown quite the interest, but could take a hard look if some of their top options are off the board. That leaves us with the Florida Marlins with the sixth pick. This is the farthest you will see Beckham fall on draft day. According to source, Florida would pounce in a hurry if the exciting high school shortstop were to be there. If he is not the top pick, this could be his next most likely landing place.

What The Scouts Say: "Beckham is that player loaded with tools that everyone wants to see at the top of the draft class. He's got all the athleticism and speed you could want and a real feel for the game."

2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

What To Expect: In terms of statistics and overall performance, it would easy to call Pedro Alvarez' junior season a disappointment. The fact of the matter is, however, that it is hard to find a scout that would agree with that sentiment. Despite a hand injury keeping him out of the lineup for a good portion of the spring and less than Alvarez-like numbers since getting back into the action, the general consensus is that he hasn't missed a beat or had any of his prospect status diminished. He has an outside chance of being the top overall pick, but that, at this point appears to be unlikely. What appears to be more and more of a likelihood though is that the Pirates will take him with the number two overall selection. He's expected to ask for the big bucks, but it doesn't appear to be scaring anyone off. As unlikely as it seems, if the Vanderbilt star slips by Pittsburgh he could be in play for Kansas City but will not get past the Baltimore Orioles at number four.

What The Scouts Say: "He's going to hit. Everyone knows he was hurt and the statistics don't look like they should but he just hits. When he's right, there's no one in the class the matches him in that department."

3. Buster Posey, C, Florida State

What To Expect: Perhaps the word isn't "shocking", but the word to describe Posey's monstrous spring performance and rapid ascension to the top of the '08 class would certainly have to be something in the neighborhood of "pleasantly surprising." Not a player in the nation, at any level, can match the FSU catcher's play this season and it has put him squarely in position as a near lock for the top five overall picks. There's a current divide among scouts and experts about who the Rays will take as the top overall selection, with Buster Posey being the alternative to the aforementioned Tim Beckham. Tampa Bay's scouting department has yet to come close to tipping their hand, but while Beckham has the very slight edge Posey is by no means a long shot. If he is not the top choice, Pittsburgh is rumored to have interest, but appear to be set on Pedro Alvarez. Kansas City will most likely pass and Baltimore will take a long look, but will most likely lean towards left-handed pitcher, Brian Matusz. The righty swinging catcher's slide would more than likely end there, though. The Giants have been all over the Seminole backstop and would not let him slip by.

What The Scouts Say: "The move behind the plate went smoothly. And, we know what a hot commodity a catcher who can swing the bat is. Posey may not be a slugger, but he can swing the bat and stick behind the plate."

4. Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

What To Expect: With this being a year dominated by hitters, it seems like Matusz has been the forgotten man at times. By no means, however, is he being forgotten by teams picking in the top ten. All along, there have been whispers, as faint as they may be, that teams picking in the top three could have interest in the southpaw strikeout artist. Even with that being said, Matusz is the favorite to land with Baltimore at pick number four. The Giants, always on the hunt for pitching, could also be a fit for the tall left-hander. The most interesting recent rumor has Matusz linked with the Florida Marlins. Rumors have been flying of late that Florida has been looking for a pre-draft deal with someone; whether that player is Matusz is unknown but it's certainly a possibility. If he falls any farther than the sixth pick it will be very surprising.

What The Scouts Say: "He really the total package. [Matusz] is everything you could want when you are drafting a college pitcher. The command, the live stuff, the polish. It's all there."

5. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

What To Expect: Justin Smoak has been one of the more difficult prospects to make a prediction on in this year's draft class. Considering he has some perceived high bonus demands, that could play a large role in that uncertainty. Although the demands are still unknown, we won't know for sure until the draft begins to unfold but Smoak could be the player this year who slides farther than his talent would indicate. The Baltimore Orioles have proven to be unafraid of taking on tough negotiations and they are probably his earliest possible destination. Look for the Giants, Reds, and especially the Nationals to be major players for the South Carolina slugger. The odds are that he won't get by Washington at pick number nine, but if he does, the slide could begin.

What The Scouts Say: "After Alvarez, Smoak is the next guy. He's got a lot of competition with all the big bats this year, but he can swing it from both sides and will hit for big power at the next level. You have an idea of what you're getting with him."

6. Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage High School (FL)

What To Expect: Hosmer is being talked up as a major wildcard in this class and as the player who could really slide down the first round. If that were to happen it would shakeup the entire makeup of the draft. But, it is looking less and less likely that that scenario will play out. The Royals appear to be undeterred by Hosmer and Scott Boras' reported sky-high bonus demands. It would come as quite a surprise if the Royals top selection come draft day was not the high school slugger. If the Royals do pass on him, then it is time to start looking for other landing spots in the first round for his enormous price tag. Washington, at pick number nine has proven to be a free spending team when it comes to the draft and it would say a lot about the size of Hosmer's demands if even they let him slide by.

What The Scouts Say: "He's not your typical high school hitter. He's not all about the big raw power or what he shows in the batting cage. The kid can just hit. His approach is not anything like a high school player's usually is."

7. Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

What To Expect: A combination of power stuff and college polish, Crow will be a sought after commodity come draft day and will not make it out of the top ten picks. Where exactly in those top ten picks he could go is in flux. The Reds and White Sox at picks seven and eight have been taking a long look at the hard throwing righty, according to several scouts. He could go as high as number four overall to the Orioles, but that appears unlikely.

What The Scouts Say: "There's not many arms out there like Aaron Crow. He's got power stuff and has been very durable this spring. He hit a rough patch and his stuff didn't look as lively but he looks like he's back in top form."

8. Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot High School (CA)

What To Expect: Few players have been as talked about in this draft class as much as Kyle Skipworth. His performance in front of scouts and word of his recent workouts with various teams have been the buzz of the last couple weeks. Despite some poor performances in front of scouts and in his workouts, Skipworth has bounced back and had some incredibly impressive displays. The latest word is that he put on absolute show at a pre-draft workout for the Nationals, putting ball after ball into the stands in batting practice. That also may not be the last time he launches home runs for them. According to sources, Washington will not pass on the slugging catcher if he's available at pick number nine. With the Marlins all over him and potentially using the sixth overall pick on him, however, the Nationals may not get their man.

What The Scouts Say: "Skipworth has some work to do behind the plate but he's got the skills to stay back there. His ticket is his bat though. He's got huge upside at the plate."

9. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

What To Expect: There have been reports that Hunt is slipping down the draft boards, but according to a handful of industry sources, those reports are at least somewhat unfounded. Both teams in Texas appear to be on hot on the hard throwing Tulane ace's tail and his most likely landing place is with the Texas Rangers at number eleven. Hunt could go as high as the eighth overall pick to the White Sox, who are also said to have significant interest in the right-hander. He's expected to be signable for slot money so it's unlikely that a signable power arm with a college track record will slip too far.

What The Scouts Say: "There have been some concerns with his command, definitely. But, it is very hard to ignore the power stuff and the two plus pitches. He has frontline potential."

10. Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State

What To Expect: Rumors that Wallace could go as high as the eighth overall pick to the White Sox have fizzled of late, but in that time more rumors have emerged. The Nationals are said to have interest as well as Oakland with the twelfth overall pick. If nothing else, he fits beautifully into the "Moneyball" concept. No, they aren't selling jeans, so even with a "bad body" which really is not nearly as bad as it is made out to be, the Athletics will not let that influence their evaluation of the lefty slugger.

What The Scouts Say: "Say what you want about his body are his defense, or that he will have to play first base.

[BOSSHOGG30]

Where do you think "Stinky's" kid will go?

Probably second round...

I think he will be a late 1st rounder early 2nd rounder. Hard to find good lefties.

[BroncoAV06]

Got my Baseball America in front of me at work, ready to go. Looking forward to reloading the system and catching a few of these guys in a year or two come through Albuquerque.

Rockies projected pick in their mock was Jake Odorizzi, I know they have looked at him and looks to be their pick at 25.

Tim B. makes sense for the Rays. Evan is locked up for the long haul at third, he does not have the power at this point as Pedro but he is right up there in the top three in most catagories, 2nd behind Skipworth as the best pure hitter in High School, 3rd best definsive player in HS, and is considered a 5-tool player.

Buster Posey's contract was also an issue I read.

[MOtorboat]

Got my Baseball America in front of me at work, ready to go. Looking forward to reloading the system and catching a few of these guys in a year or two come through Albuquerque.

Rockies projected pick in their mock was Jake Odorizzi, I know they have looked at him and looks to be their pick at 25.

Tim B. makes sense for the Rays. Evan is locked up for the long haul at third, he does not have the power at this point as Pedro but he is right up there in the top three in most catagories, 2nd behind Skipworth as the best pure hitter in High School, 3rd best definsive player in HS, and is considered a 5-tool player.

Buster Posey's contract was also an issue I read.

Beckham is probably going No. 1.

I don't know what your work situation is, but you can watch it at mlb.com.

I took a late lunch to watch the first hour...I'm hoping that its not a 1/2 of talk and THEN the draft, but it looks like it might be. Good thing I have Soren Petro's show on the radio (best radio show I've ever listened to).

[BroncoAV06]

Ya, well my job is to edit shows so I will have draft tracker up since I don't want to miss any f-bombs that might slip through if I am listening to the draft, lol. Says Beckham will go first.

[Denver Native (Carol)]

It's official - TB - Beckham

[BroncoAV06]

Keith Law:

1 Tampa Bay Rays Tim Beckham SS Griffin (Ga.) H.S.
The Rays take the best overall player on the board. The system isn't particularly strong at middle infield, so if he stays at shortstop or moves to second, he'd probably be the second-best prospect in their system after David Price. His selections show a willingness to think long term because they didn't go for a player like Buster Posey who could get their quicker. Instead, they took the best player available.

See what happens with Pedro, will the Pirates want to deal with Boras?

[MOtorboat]

BA says it should go:
Pittsburgh, Alvarez
Kansas City, Hosmer
Baltimore, Matusz
San Francisco, Smoak
Florida, Posey

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Mariners I believe are picking 20. I don't get excited too much about the baseball draft because it's much different from the NFL; and in regards to when players will actually make it to the bigs, but I'm excited.

[BroncoAV06]

Rumblings:

More pre-draft buzz (1:57 p.m.): Law is hearing that catcher Kyle Skipworth from Riverside, Calif., will indeed go to Florida at No. 6.

[MOtorboat]

Mariners I believe are picking 20. I don't get excited too much about the baseball draft because it's much different from the NFL; and in regards to when players will actually make it to the bigs, but I'm excited.

College players should make an impact in 1-2 years, High School can take a while...4-5 years sometimes.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

College players should make an impact in 1-2 years, High School can take a while...4-5 years sometimes.

Well yeah! Mariners have gone for a lot of high school players early on, and we haven't taken that many college players it seems. . . are you anxious for this Royals pick!?

[BroncoAV06]

Mariners I believe are picking 20. I don't get excited too much about the baseball draft because it's much different from the NFL; and in regards to when players will actually make it to the bigs, but I'm excited.

Yep, it is a different kind of excitment. Top players have a shot at cracking the big leauge roster next year depending on the teams situations and injuries and maybe even September call-ups if the team is so far out of centention. I have become more of a fan of player development in the past years and looking forward to them hitting the bigs.


2 Pittsburgh Pirates
Pedro Alvarez 3B Vanderbilt
The pick makes sense for the Pirates, who have had a hard time developing power hitters and don't have a lot in their system. If he moved to first base, he'd have a clear path to the majors there. Same thing at third base. My only concern is that they didn't pick the best player on the board at this point. Justin Smoak would have made just as much if not more sense. But if everything clicks with Alvarez, the Pirates have a cleanup hitter for the next several years with 40-homer potential in the majors.

[BOSSHOGG30]

I'm praying that the Red Sox get a short stop in this draft and some more depth at pitching. I love Jeb Lowrie, but I don't think they figure him in as a valuable SS like I do. They probably like him more at 3rd.

[MOtorboat]

Well yeah! Mariners have gone for a lot of high school players early on, and we haven't taken that many college players it seems. . . are you anxious for this Royals pick!?

No...pretty much knew it was Hosmer. Wanted Posey, but you can't be disappointed, your fifth round pick is just as likely to be a stud as your top guy.

[BroncoAV06]

Sox could look to draft Reese Havens, who if he would have signed for slot money the Soxs would have taken him over Ellsbury in 2005. (From baseballamerica)


3 Kansas City Royals Eric Hosmer 1B American Heritage H.S. (Plantation, Fla.)
Hosmer has the most raw power of anyone in the first round, but also has a very refined appraoch at the plate. He has very quick hands and good plate coverage. he has a hold middle in, but if pitchers try to pitch him inside, they'd better get it all the way inside. He can hit the ball out to left or left-center. I like his chances potentially to move to right field. He's a good athlete. He has plenty of arm to play right field. He gives the Royals a lot of flexibility.

Another Boras client and Arizona St. signee signability could be an issue.

[MOtorboat]

Sox could look to draft Reese Havens, who if he would have signed for slot money the Soxs would have taken him over Ellsbury in 2005. (From baseballamerica)



Another Boras client and Arizona St. signee signability could be an issue.

Well...they better sign his ass if they passed on Posey, because Posey is asking for a lot of dough.

Seven mil is the rumor. Sign his ass and get him up to Boise.

[BroncoAV06]

Rolling now:

4 Baltimore Orioles
Brian Matusz LHP San Diego
Probably the fastest moving starter in the draft. The Orioles have to consider moving him quickly through the system. He has about four average or better pitches. Not a ton of projection here; he is today what he's going to be three or four years from now. His offspeed stuff is so good that he'll miss a lot of bats in the low minors and not have a chance to work on fastball command.

[MOtorboat]

Little bit of a wrinkle by San Fran by taking Posey.

[BOSSHOGG30]

What do you think about the Royals pick Mo? Do you like it?

[BroncoWave]

I'm surprised Posey slipped to 5. Now let's see where my boy Shooter Hunt goes.

[BroncoAV06]

2:21 p.m. ET: There's a 90 percent chance that the Cardinals will take Brett Wallace at No. 13.

Not sure about their catcher situation in the minors but Molina is up their in age and well yes they do not have a catcher with potential in the system. Gives them a much needed quaility bat for the near future in their ageing line-up.


5 San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey C Florida State
Posey is the best catcher in the draft, and he is likely to move quickly. There is very little downside to Posey. Defensively, he can play in the big leagues right now. Catching is a glaring need for the Giants in their farm system. And Posey is one of the best makeup guys in the draft.

[MOtorboat]

What do you think about the Royals pick Mo? Do you like it?

I don't know anything about the kid, but if he can hit home runs at the professional level, I'll be happy. Have to get him signed and into the system. I'd like to see him in KC by 2011. 2010 at the earliest, I would imagine.


I'm surprised Posey slipped to 5. Now let's see where my boy Shooter Hunt goes.

Money...asking for 12 mil...Giants had said, through innuendo, of course, that they would probably take him if he slipped. That's how Porcello (sp?) slipped into the 20s last year.

[MOtorboat]

P.S. I haven't been over to the Royals Board to see what they are saying.

Also...I would have liked Posey, because that would make Buck tradeable, and soon, too.

But...if this kid is the real deal, and I'd like to see the Royals get him signed, soon, and maybe be in A-Ball by the end of the season.

[BroncoAV06]

Heres some scouting on the kid MB:

An Aflac All-American, pre-season HS All-American, Hosmer is one of the most decorated prep players in this years draft class. Playeed for Team USA's junior team last summer, member of one of the nations top HS teams. Regularly comapared to Casey Kotchman, Hosmer is a physical specimen with bat speed to spair. Swinging from the left side Hosmer has as much raw power as anyone in the draft. Power ranges to all fields, plate recognition is a bit of concern. Solid defender, above average arm, closer on HS team touching 95mph on the mound, can be above average defender with some work, has one ofhighest celling of any player in the draft and could be an All-Star first basemen.


6 Florida Marlins Kyle Skipworth C Rubidoux H.S.,
Riverside, Calif.
Skipworth has the potential to be a star behind the plate. Like Posey, he's only been playing the position for a short time, but he has a very strong arm. If he is able to stay behind the plate, he can be a superstar-caliber hitter. He gets his arms extended nicely, and his power will only increase with age. If he can't stay behind the plate, he could always move to another position. His bat will play will at first base or a corner outfield position.

7 Cincinnati Reds
Yonder Alonso 1B Miami
Alonso is the first surprise of the draft. It's a surprise because they weren't linked to him and he's asking for $8 million and a major league deal. He's a left-handed power hitter with a very patient approach, and he should hit for quite a bit of power at Great American Ballpark. What does this mean for Joey Votto?

Once they move Griffey Jr. would think that they would try and put Votto in RF, as much pub as Bruce has got Votto is legit as well and the Reds are looking to have major power for years to come.

[MOtorboat]

If they need to send Joey Votto somewhere, the Royals will take him...

For, oh, say...Jimmy Gobble and Brian Bannister...maybe...

[BroncoAV06]

8 Chicago White Sox Gordon Beckham SS Georgia
He wasn't supposed to be available at this spot, so the White Sox must be thrilled. He play second base, but there's a good chance he stays at shortstop. He has tremendous baseball instincts. He'll probably move pretty quickly through the system. He instantly becomes the best prospect in the organization the day he signs.

Well BA had him going to the Soxs at eight a couple of weeks ago. Looks to be a plus hitter but might not have all the tools to stick at SS.

[BroncoAV06]

All these little tid bits are from Kieth Law:

9 Washington Nationals
Aaron Crow RHP Missouri
Crow is the top college pitcher on my board. He might have two plus pitches right now. He's a power pitcher who projects as a No. 2 starter. If he can sustain his velocity at the high end, he has a chance to be a No. 1 starter. He had good command throughout his college career.

Crow has a fastball 92-96, tops at 98mph, hard sink, with command, plus slider but can rely on it to much. Some teams wonder if his mechanics will force him to be a closer but the kids has teh stuff.

Baseball America is also a great source which I am using as well, next year I will be all over the baseball draft, lol.

[MOtorboat]

Well BA had him going to the Soxs at eight a couple of weeks ago. Looks to be a plus hitter but might not have all the tools to stick at SS.

Most drafted SS never play SS...Moustakis is now for the Royals, but it probably won't last.

[BroncoAV06]

Most drafted SS never play SS...Moustakis is now for the Royals, but it probably won't last.

All comes down to athleticism, Tulo has been one of the best to come out of college in some time with his range and arm strength, have not seen one like that in a while.

[BroncoAV06]

10 Houston Astros
Jason Castro C Stanford
Castro didn't get to catch last year in the Cape Cod League because the team had Posey. Castro was expected to go in the second half of the first round. He's a contact hitter; he will not hit for a lot of power. He's an average regular catcher in the big leagues. But I don't see him as a star. By the way, the next best college catcher in the draft is well below Castro.

Not a highly rated defensive catcher but his bat is plus for a catcher which moves him up.

1st round catchers are all gone. Guess the Astros don't think very highly of J.R. Towles?

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Mariners will probably head pitcher, and that's probably the right idea. Bedard, Hernandez and Silva is a really, really nice 1-2-3; but they haven't had consistency or the run support necessary to win games. Our relief has been pretty terrible, but I hope we don't get a relief guy in round one. I was thinking an infielder, because Lopez could be traded; but we have Mangini and Triunfel in AA ball; and they're doing well and could be ready in a year or so. Then I switched to OF; but we drafted Almonte, Dunigan and Carroll last year who are all getting good reps in A ball, and could be in High A soon. I am not even sure who will be available at 20; but I'd really like to see us go somewhere more creative than pitcher. Aumonte is already doing well, and should be ready for the bigs by 2010. We'll see though. We gave up a lot of minor league prospects in the Adam Jones trade for Bedard, so we need to get some youth there. I'd also like to see a power hitter as well.

[MOtorboat]

Smoak fell a ways, imo. He was in the discussion for the Royals, I believe.

[BroncoAV06]

11 Texas Rangers
Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina
This is the best pick in the draft so far. Smoak is the third-best player on my board. He's a switch-hitting Adrian Gonzalez with more power. In the Rangers' ballpark, he has a good chance to hit 40 home runs, if he develops. There are no major holes in his game. I saw this scenario possibly unfolding last night. A lot of things had to go right for them to get Smoak, and they did.

Thought to be the best combination of defense and offense in the draft, compared to Mark Teixiera which the Rangers know well.

Shooter Hunt rhp, Aaron Hicks rhp, Tanner Scheppers rhp, Chirstain Friedrich lhp, Tim Melville rhp are some top names that round out the top 15 ranks.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

This Arizona State kid is HUGE.

[BroncoAV06]

As for some of what I have read about the Mainers and 20, could grab another HS pitcher if they are still on the board, some names Tim Melville, Jake Odorizzi, or Ethan Matin If they wanted to try and repeat the success they had with Brandon Morrow they could go with TCU closer Andrew Cashner.


12 Oakland Athletics Jemile Weeks 2B Miami
This is the riskiest pick so far. He can't play anywhere but second base in the infield, so he has to hit well enough to be a major league regular. He's a plus runner; he needs to be more contact-oriented with wood. With metal, he's too pull-oriented, and he'll have to adjust that. He has a better chance to be a plus defender at second base than his brother, Rickie Weeks.

Most athletic player outside of G. Beckham, shown the ability to make great plays at 2nd, ability to put pressure on defense with his speed on base paths. , switch hitter, needs work on double plays, was expected to be gone in first 50 picks but not 12.


13 St. Louis Cardinals Brett Wallace 3B Arizona State
Wallace has the best pure bat in the college ranks. He will hit for average and power. He draws a ton of walks and is very disciplined. He works the count, not just for walks but also to get good pitches to hit in hitter's counts. He started to show a lot more power this year. Unlike a lot of lefty hitters, he's already shown an ability to hit left-handed pitching, which puts him ahead of other left-handed bats.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

That kid Minnesota just got was supposedly high on the Mariners boards, my friend was cheering on the phone, LOL.

[BroncoAV06]

Clement and Bladamier are the top two power hitters for the Mariners at the moment. Jeff Clement was up a couple of weeks ago then they sent him down, bad move, if they would have waited a week to call him up instead of so soon they would have been able to get a year or two more out of him with his rookie contract. But both look to be good hitters for the M's in the near future.


14 Minnesota Twins
Aaron Hicks RF/RHP Wilson H.S., Long Beach, Calif.
In terms of tools, Hicks is one of the top three or four players in the draft. He's first-rounder as an outfielder and a pitcher. He is relatively unpolished, so he should take a long time to get to the majors. He's gotten by a lot on strength and bat speed for now. The Twins will have to work with him on his hitting approach. He has a chance to be a switch-hitting Andrew McCutchen, one of the top prospects in the minors.

As a pitcher he tops at 97, sits 92-94, wicked curve movment, hard cutter and change, 6.6 (60), scouts belive he projects as an above average hitter wit habove average power.

[MOtorboat]

This Arizona State kid is HUGE.

6-2, 235 isn't THAT big...

Not like C.C. Sabathia big...

[BroncoAV06]

15 Los Angeles Dodgers

Ethan Martin RHP/3B Stephens County H.S., Toccoa, Ga.
Martin is a two-way player. He came into the year as a potential first-rounder as a third baseman, but he didn't hit well at the beginning. He likes to pitch, and he shut down American Plantation H.S. (the team of prospects Eric Hosmer and Adrian Nieto) in February. He throws 91-95 mph. He has a chance to be an above-average bat at third base, and he obviously has a plus arm. I would be surprised if the Dodgers kept well at beginn. Likes to pitch. Chance to be an above abverage bat at third . Plus arm. Good athlete. Would be surprise if keep him as a pitcher because they tend to prefer guys with polish. He has arm strength, but not much polish as a pitcher.

[BroncoAV06]

16 Milwaukee Brewers
Brett Lawrie C/2B Brookswood, Langley, B.C.
Lawrie made himself into a first-rounder with a strong two-month stretch with a wood bat this spring. He has a great swing that is very clean. He's out on his front foot a lot, so it's unclear if he'll hit for power unless that changes. His ultimate position is the biggest question. I'm generally not a fan of taking guys without a clear position in the first round, and that makes this pick very risky. But if can catch, it's potentially high reward too.

6.75 (60), plus offensive tools, power is 70 on the 20-80 scale, plays short but projects better at 2nd or 3rd, scouts wonder with his plus bat if taking the time to learn catcher would be a waste.


17 Toronto Blue Jays
David Cooper 1B California
Cooper is a polished hitter who should hit for a high average. He's shown HR power with metal but not so much with wood. He's a solid defensive player at first base. I think the draft pool forced a change in direction. The Jays have gone with high school bats in the first round the last two years, but the type of polished H.S. hitter they like wasn't there for them at No. 17.

Bat is Cooper's tool, below average defender, slow on the bases, power will be his key to making it big.


18 New York Mets
Ike Davis 1B Arizona State
The Mets said they wanted to focus on college bats with their first two picks, and Davis was probably the best hitter left on the board. His pitch recognition is good, and he has a clean swing once he gets it started. He has 30-plus homer power in the big leagues if everything clicks. He's also a good defender with a plus arm at first base.

Well the trend continues as this draft is loaded at first. Above average first baseman, below average speed, excellent raw power, good swing and pitch recognition.

[MHCBill]

I'm praying that the Red Sox get a short stop in this draft and some more depth at pitching. I love Jeb Lowrie, but I don't think they figure him in as a valuable SS like I do. They probably like him more at 3rd.The Red Sox are very high on the shortstop from South Carolina.

[MHCBill]

P.S. I haven't been over to the Royals Board to see what they are saying.

Also...I would have liked Posey, because that would make Buck tradeable, and soon, too.

But...if this kid is the real deal, and I'd like to see the Royals get him signed, soon, and maybe be in A-Ball by the end of the season.Extremely high upside with Hosmer's bat.

I've heard he may be the best bat to come out of this draft. Trouble with most high schoolers is it will probably take 3-4 years until he makes it up. A lot can go wrong in 3-4 years.

[MOtorboat]

Extremely high upside with Hosmer's bat.

I've heard he may be the best bat to come out of this draft. Trouble with most high schoolers is it will probably take 3-4 years until he makes it up. A lot can go wrong in 3-4 years.

A LOT.

See: Colt Griffin and Mike Stodolka.

[BroncoAV06]

19 Chicago Cubs
Andrew Cashner RHP Texas Christian
Cashner could get to the big leagues this year. On his best days, he has two pitches that grade as 60. The slider is at 88 mph, and it's an out pitch. And he can run his fastball up to 98 mph. There's a question about his command; can he command his pitches? If he can, he can get to the big leagues right away as an impact relief pitcher.

96-98mph fastball, plus slider, average curve, 6'6'' 180 frame, could start but looks better as a relief pitcher.

[MOtorboat]

Josh Fields, RHP for Georgia to the Mariners, Dream.

College pitcher...could be up for Sept. call-ups if they get him signed and in to Double-A quickly.

[BroncoAV06]

19 Chicago Cubs

Andrew Cashner RHP Texas Christian
Cashner could get to the big leagues this year. On his best days, he has two pitches that grade as 60. The slider is at 88 mph, and it's an out pitch. And he can run his fastball up to 98 mph. There's a question about his command; can he command his pitches? If he can, he can get to the big leagues right away as an impact relief pitcher.


20 Seattle Mariners
Josh Fields RHP Georgia
I'm surprised to see a team in last place take a reliever this high in the draft. He's up to 97 mph and has a power curveball. If he can't get big league hitters out this year, he will next year. Philosophically, though, you would think the Mariners would go longer term with this pick instead of taking a reliever, who is more of a short-term solution with a shorter life span.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Josh Fields, RHP for Georgia to the Mariners, Dream.

College pitcher...could be up for Sept. call-ups if they get him signed and in to Double-A quickly.

Well, like I said earlier our relief has really blowed lately; so I'll cheer this pick. Given the fact that Morrow came up very quickly, and Aumonte is going to be in the bigs in a year or so; I'm pleased with the Mariners getting pitchers up in the big leagues. We need relief, so woo!

[MOtorboat]

The Red Sox are very high on the shortstop from South Carolina.

...and there he goes at No. 22 to the Mets...

[MOtorboat]

25. Rockies
Christian Friedrich
LHP
Eastern Kentucky

Part of a prospect-studded Falmouth rotation that also included Aaron Crow and Shooter Hunt last summer, Friedrich struck out Buster Posey, Jason Castro and Gordon Beckham in his final inning in the Cape Cod League playoffs. Like Crow, Friedrich operated in the mid-80s as an undrafted high school senior in the Chicago area before blossoming in college. He now maintains solid-average 89-91 mph velocity throughout a game and can touch 94, but his money pitch is an over-the-top curveball with huge 12-to-6 break. Blisters have periodically bothered Friedrich this spring, so he has been using his slider more than he has in the past, and it has become a weapon at 80-82 mph. He also has a decent changeup that he'll need to incorporate more often in pro ball. While Friedrich throws strikes and can command his fastball to both sides of the plate, he sometimes leaves it up in the zone. He gets away with a lot of those mistakes because his deceptive delivery and the fear of his curveball allow his fastball to get on hitters quickly. He doesn't have the ceiling of San Diego's Brian Matusz, but Friedrich is clearly the second-best lefty available in the draft.

[BroncoAV06]

Read that his command can be a little suspect so does not look to project fast to the bigs but I am ok with that. Give him time to develope, Morales, Weathers, Friedrich, up in a couple of years with Ubaldo/Cook and Francis, sounds good. Have to see how he will pan out.

[Broncospsycho77]

Read that his command can be a little suspect so does not look to project fast to the bigs but I am ok with that. Give him time to develope, Morales, Weathers, Friedrich, up in a couple of years with Ubaldo/Cook and Francis, sounds good. Have to see how he will pan out.

The Rox sure have a trend to look for these pitchers...

[MOtorboat]

Read that his command can be a little suspect so does not look to project fast to the bigs but I am ok with that. Give him time to develope, Morales, Weathers, Friedrich, up in a couple of years with Ubaldo/Cook and Francis, sounds good. Have to see how he will pan out.

He's a completely different pitcher than Francis though...over the top delivery, same velocity, but he's got a 12-6 curve.

That's good to have the lefties in the organization.

He could make an impact by next year, if he progresses well, and as always...gets signed. (SLOTTING SYSTEM!!!!!!!)

[MOtorboat]

Just an update:
26. Arizona, Daniel Schlereth, LHP, U of Arizona
27. Minnesota, Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, U of Miami
28. New York Yankees, Gerrit Cole, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS, California
29. Cleveland, Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC
30. Boston, Casey Kelly, Sarasota HS, Florida
Comp Picks A
31. Minnesota, Steven Hunt, RHP, Tulane U
32. Milwaukee, Jacob Ordorizzi, RHP, Highland HS, Illinois
33. New York Mets, Bradley Holt, RHP, UNC Wilmington
34. Philadelphia, Zachary Collier, LF, Chino Hills HS, California
35. Milwaukee, Evan Frederickson, LHP, U of San Francisco
36. Kansas City, Michael Montgomery, LHP, Hart HS, California
37. San Francisco, Conor Gillespie, 3B, Wichita State
38. Houston, Jordan Lyles, RHP, Hartsville HS, South Carolina
39. St. Louis, Michael Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss
40. Atlanta, Brett DeVall, LHP, Niceville HS, Florida
41. Chicago Cubs, Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
42. San Diego, Jeff Decker, CF, Sunrise Mountain HS, Arizona
43. Arizona, Wade Miley, LFP, Southeastern Louisiana U
44. New York Yankees, Jeremy Bleich, LHP, Stanford
45. Boston, Bryan Price, RHP, Rice
46. John Forsythe, 3B, U of Arkansas

[lex]

19 Chicago Cubs


Andrew Cashner RHP Texas Christian
Cashner could get to the big leagues this year. On his best days, he has two pitches that grade as 60. The slider is at 88 mph, and it's an out pitch. And he can run his fastball up to 98 mph. There's a question about his command; can he command his pitches? If he can, he can get to the big leagues right away as an impact relief pitcher.

Please let this work out!

[Watchthemiddle]

Rockies first rounder...Fastball: Friedrich's fastball is average to plus. He pitches comfortably with average velocity that ranges anywhere from 88 to 93 mph.
Fastball movement: It's slightly below average, but projects to be average in the future. There's more when he keeps it down in the zone.
Slider: It's more like a cutter and he throws it 83-85 mph.
Curve: It's an above-average pitch which he throws 72-76 mph.
Changeup: He doesn't throw it much, but it's slightly below average now, 82-83 mph, and projects to be an average pitch in the future.
Control: His command is slightly below average -- he's struggled with walks at times -- but it projects to be average.
Poise: Nothing wrong here. He's got good makeup and competes well on the mound.
Physical Description: Friedrich is a pretty big, strong lefty with a body type similar to Joe Saunders.
Medical Update: He missed one start in mid-April with a groin injury, but has come back and pitched well since.
Strengths: Four pitches that project to be at least average, led by his fastball and curve.
Weaknesses: His command has been inconsistent. He is what he is, a No. 3 starter-type with good stuff and average command in the future.
Summary: College lefties are always in high demand and, truth be told, there aren't that many upper-echelon ones out there this year. Behind San Diego's Brian Matusz, Friedrich is likely the best -- especially once he gains more consistent command -- with a repertoire that should land him in the middle of a big-league rotation in short order. Matusz may go first, but it shouldn't take long for Friedrich to hear his name, either.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Mariners got Raben out of Miami in the second. They drafted him back in 2005. . . LOL.

[G_Money]

My Mariners are idiots.

Fields is a fine bullpen pitcher and could be a great closer someday, but they have severe power deficiencies in their lineup, as well as OBP issues, attitude issues and 3 starters who are getting blown up on a regular basis. They'll probably use it as the final excuse to get Morrow out into the rotation, some that should have been started, oh, 2 years ago. That doesn't make it the best possible choice. Still, at least I think Fields could be a good player now that he's ours. Better than drafting Mike Garciaparra who was never gonna be anything.

Raben is an intriguing guy but with several flaws. The back issues sapped some of his effectiveness, but he's still gonna have to improve his pitch recognition before he can be an impact player with that power-to-all-fields that he should have even with wood. At least we got ONE potential power hitter, but I dunno that a left-handed try at Balentien was the best possible option. A better hitter in round one and a closer in round 2 might have served us better. Still, Raben could become an impact player. He's not devoid of talent.

WTH is up with all the rest of the first-day choices?

Crazy-raw pitcher with a good FB and movement on his pitches but no idea where they're going? He's years away from being anybody and he's gonna need an overhaul.

Two relief arms masquerading as starters with side-armish deliveries and 89-92 mph stuff?

A prep bat who wasn't even the most lauded kid from Dade still available in the draft?

*shakes head* It's gonna be another one of those years. Here's hoping the Ms know something I don't. They haven't the last several years, but the draft should be a time of optimism.

So I'm sitting here listening to "Notice of Eviction" by Saul Williams and laughing at the lyrics.


something is dying tonight.
there will be no more breath and no more light
I've burned every candle and extinguished every fear
and I've waited for your time to pass
to bring in my new year
something is dying tonight.

What else can you do? ;)

~G

[MOtorboat]

Cubs Cash In With Cashner

By Jeff Vorva
June 5, 2008

CHICAGO—When Andrew Cashner walked into Conroe High School in Texas back in 2001, he was about 5-foot-9. Maybe.

He was literally no big deal.

But through the years in high school and college he shot up. Not only physically but in the draft as well.

The 6-foot-6 righthanded reliever from Texas Christian University was drafted in the 20th round by the Braves his senior season in high school, in the 18th round by the Rockies after his freshman year at Angelina Junior College in 2006 and in the 29th round by the Cubs last year.

But he waited patiently, pitched for TCU in 2008 and was rewarded when the Cubs took another chance on him as their first-round pick (19th overall).

In mind and body, he thinks he is ready this time.

"It has been a long process," he said. "I've come a long way since high school. This is the first year I've really grown into my body. I've matured from a baseball standpoint. I was 5-9 in high school and now I'm 6-6 and 190 (pounds). I've come a long way."

Cashner was 9-4, 2.32 with nine saves for the Horned Frogs this season. Opponents hit just .122 against him. He walked 27 and struck out a team-high 80 batters in 30 appearances.

Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken is impressed with Cashner's fastball, which has topped off at 98 mph, and a curve that could nudge the radar guns to 84 mph.
Wilken said it's not a done deal that Cashner will be a reliever.

"We're leaving this open," Wilken said. "He's not necessarily a reliever. He could very well be a starter and a good one at that. He could do either one. We'll let the pitcher show us what he's going to do."

Wilken said that even though Cashner didn't sign with the Cubs last year, he was glad he could get a new and improved Cashner this season.

"He had some maturation and I'll bet he's 15 or 20 pounds heavier than he was last year," Wilken said. "And there a significantly different pitch coming out of his arm than there was last year."

Cubbyhole

• Wilken hopes to reverse some history. When the Cubs have had a first-round draft pick in the 15th position or later, they produced just two-major league starters - for other teams. Roger Metzger (16th pick in 1969) and Rafael Palmeiro (22nd pick in 1985) were the two successful late first-round picks by the Cubs.

• The Cubs' sandwich pick (41st overall) was Vanderbilt shortstop Ryan Flaherty, whose father, Edward, is the head coach of Division III school, the University of southern Maine.

[MOtorboat]

Addition of college closer Joshua Fields should help rotation

By John Hickey
June 5, 2008

SEATTLE—The Mariners think they have helped their starting rotation long-term with the first-round selection of Georgia righthanded closer Joshua Fields.

It's not that the Mariners plan on converting Fields to starting work. But Bob Fontaine, the Mariners' vice president of scouting and point man on the draft, said that the better the bullpen, the better the rotation.

"I learned a long time ago that the shorter you can make the game, the better it is for your starters," Fontaine said. "Teams with real good bullpens shorten up the game so the starters don't have to go eight innings all the time.

"With Josh, we have drafted a kid who has a power arm and a power curve, and who is on a short course to the major leagues."

Fields, 2-2, 2.27 and 16 saves for the Bulldogs this year, consistently throws in the mid-90s, and he's touched 98 mph on the radar gun. Beyond that, the Mariners like the fact that he has a plus curve that comes in at 80-83 mph.

"I have no idea what the team is expecting of me and how long that would take," Fields said, "but personally I would like to be in the majors by next year . But I don't know if that is going to be possible. It'd be tough for me to say now, but I just have to wait and see how things play out. Next year is when I would like to be up there if I'm ready."

John McMichen, the Mariners' East Coast coordinator, said he's seen Fields off and on since Fields was in high school. He said Fields' work this year after an inconsistent 2007 season has been particularly noteworthy.

"We have an extensive history with him," McMichen said. "I saw him pitch against the Atlanta Braves for an inning, and he was throwing his fastball 93-97 and his breaking ball at 83. He gave up a hit, then retired the next three batters he faced.

"He fit in. It's not hard to imagine him in a Mariner uniform."

That didn't mean Fields wasn't surprised to hear his name called.

"I had heard that several teams were interested, with Seattle being one of them," he said. "It was a complete surprise. I hadn't had any calls. I was just sitting there waiting for my name to be called, and I just looked around at my family and I jumped up out of my seat. So it was a complete surprise while I was watching it. It was awesome."

The Braves thought he'd look good in an Atlanta uniform last year when they took him in the second round. But with agent Scott Boras representing him, Fields wasn't able to make a deal and returned for his senior season. The Mariners, who took him 20th overall, don't see a problem with Fields this time around.

"I think maybe his expectations last year was that he was going to go in the first round,'' Fontaine said. "He was a sandwich pick. I don't know the particulars of those negotiations. But we aren't worried about what happened last year.

"We drafted him because we're planning on signing him.''

Fontaine wouldn't say how quickly the club expects Fields to be in the big leagues, but some draft analysts have suggested he could be the first pitcher to make it to the majors. If that is the case, he might be seen in the big leagues at the end of this season or in 2009.

MARINADE

• It's the third year in a row the Mariners have chosen a righthander in the first round. The Mariners selected prep righty Phillippe Aumont 11th overall last year and collegian Brandon Morrow fifth overall in 2006.

[MOtorboat]

Both BA articles from last night.

Aumont, who's only 18 is pitching pretty well in A-Ball


Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
WIS MID 4 3 1.47 11 5 0 0 2 43.0 29 12 7 2 11 41 1.43 .186

[MOtorboat]

Royals tab Hosmer, the fourth slugger they've selected in five years

By Alan Eskew
June 5, 2008
E-mail Print

KANSAS CITY—Power could be on the way for the Royals, who rank last in the majors in home runs.

For the fourth time in five years, the Royals selected a power-hitting infielder in the first round, picking Eric Hosmer, a lefthanded hitting first baseman from American Heritage High in Plantation, Fla. Hosmer, the third overall selection, was rated as the best high school power-hitter.

The Royals picked Mike Moustakas, who set the California high school record with 54 career home runs, in the first round last year; Alex Gordon out of Nebraska in 2005; and Billy Butler out of a Florida high school in 2004.

The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Hosmer hit .470 with 11 home runs and 27 RBIs in leading American Heritage to the state high school championship as a senior.

"He's a winner, always been a winner, he's been surrounded by winners," Royals scouting director Deric Ladnier said. "He was really the guy that picked the team up when it was time to play and really carried that team to a state championship.

"We feel like he's a young man that not only has advance hitting skills, but plus power.
The bat is the first thing that you're looking at, but defensively, he's as good as you'll find at first base. He's a very good glove. His foot work is great. He's got a very good accurate arm. He's a heady player. He knows where to be at the right time. All of those attributes made it an easy selection for us.

"We've seen him—not that it's a factor because he's not going to be a pitcher—up to 98 (mph) off the mound. He's a complete player."

Hosmer is a Scott Boras client, but the Royals have not shied away from Boras players recently. Moustakas and Luke Hochevar, the Royals' first-round picks the past two years, were advised by Boras. Hosmer has an Arizona State scholarship.


"You draft based on the player's ability versus the player's signability," Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. "We've got to take the best available talent. We've got to be very aggressive in every way.

"We need guys that are future stars out on that diamond if we're going to win a World Series. We think Eric has that type of potential to be that type of guy. He has tremendous talent. He's somebody that can impact a baseball game. He's a great defender at first base. He's a guy that can potentially hit for a high average and a lot of home runs. When you come across this type of talent, it stands out. He has a "wow' factor. It really doesn't take a keen scouting judgment or eye to walk in the ball park on any given night, no matter who's playing, and look at Eric Hosmer who is the best player on the field. It stands out at you."



ROYALTIES

• The Royals used a sandwich-round pick, the 36th overall, on Mike Montgomery, who was considered the best high school lefthander from California. Montgomery, 6-4, 180-pounds, averaged 20 points for his Hart High School basketball team, but was kicked off because of too many technical fouls. Montgomery's works in the 88-92 mph range and has peaked at 94.

• Johnny Giavotella, a 5-8, 185-pound, second baseman from New Orleans, was the Royals' second-round pick, the 49th overall. The Royals selected righthander Tim Melville from Holt High School in Wentzville, Mo., who slipped to the fourth round. He was considered as the top high school pitcher in the country with a 91-94 mph fastball, with a plus curve and size at 6-5, 210-pounds. Melville has signed with North Carolina.

[MOtorboat]

A Unique Animal

Red Sox take Casey Kelly with top pick

By Alex Speier
June 5, 2008
E-mail Print

BOSTON—There are few questions about Casey Kelly's talents. The sole dilemma facing the 18-year-old out of Sarasota (Fla.) High is how he might best apply them.

Kelly—the son of former Blue Jays catcher Pat Kelly—was viewed by scouts as a first-round talent, both as a shortstop and as a righthander pitcher. His abilities extend to the gridiron, as evidenced by a scholarship offer to play quarterback for Tennessee.

His commitment to the Vols led some teams to back off of Casey. The Red Sox, however, were eager to use the 30th and final pick of the first round to take the multi-sport athlete.

"It's a unique animal," general manager Theo Epstein said. "We have someone who is a potential first-round talent as a position player and a pitcher, and who can go to Tennessee and play quarterback."

Kelly was a full-time shortstop through his sophomore season before starting to pitch as a junior. His mound aptitude quickly became obvious, and if he signs, the Sox hope to develop him as a pitcher.

As a high school junior, the 6-foot-3 righthander went 11-0, 0.24 on the strength of a low-90s fastball and changeup. This year, he added a hammer curve that has become a swing-and-miss pitch. In two years, he fanned 139 in 111 innings.

"He's probably got as good of action on his fastball as I've seen from a high school kid in Florida in a long time," said Sarasota coach Clyde Metcalf. "He's very mature on the mound, has great location and throws three plus pitches."

Area scout Anthony Turco saw Kelly pitch at least six times, and a chorus of organizational scouts verified his glowing reports. Scouting director Jason McLeod was impressed by his own first-hand exposure.

"(Kelly had) size, arm action, delivery, worked on both sides of the plate, could throw fastballs away that ran back over the corner—which you don't see a lot out of a high school kid—(and a) hard breaking ball," McLeod said. "It was a good look."

The Sox recognize that Kelly enjoys ample negotiating leverage given his talents and his offer to play at Tennessee. Yet the club—which has typically waited until later rounds to pursue players with signability questions—was sufficiently convinced of Kelly's desire to play pro baseball that it made him its prize pick of this draft.

"You can hear the passion in his voice when he talks about baseball," Epstein said. "We wouldn't have taken him if we didn't feel, in our hearts, that he wanted to go out and play professional baseball."

SOX YARNS

With the 45th overall pick, the Sox selected righthander Bryan Price out of Rice. Price, whose fastball touches 96, worked less than 20 innings in his first two years at Rice while enduring command problems. An adjustment to make his delivery more compact led to a junior year breakthrough.

[BOSSHOGG30]

Red Sox did good.... two pitcher/SS prospects... Hopefully one of them will produce.

[BroncoAV06]

Do Mariners fnas not like what Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement have the potential to do? These two guys have lots of pop in their bats.

As for Christian Friedrich I like what they say about his make up, yes his command could use some work but most pitchers have something to work on, say he has a good head on him while on the mound which will go along way with helping him work it out. Morales gets shaken way to easy on the mound after a couple of walks and falls apart.

[keithbishop]

The Yankees took Auburn right-hander Luke Greinke in the 12th round. He is the brother of Kansas City pitcher Zach Greinke.

[MOtorboat]

The Yankees took Auburn right-hander Luke Greinke in the 12th round. He is the brother of Kansas City pitcher Zach Greinke.

Hopefully, he's got a better mental makeup than Zack. Not as talented, obviously, but Zack has been a bit of nut case so far.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Do Mariners fnas not like what Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement have the potential to do? These two guys have lots of pop in their bats.

I love these guys, and they will be part of the future for this team. They were brought up early because we were struggling, but I think it was a little too early. They'll be ready later on and ready to contribute, but we have to put our best bats in there, and despite us not having many; it's just hard to place them in there when they have inconsistency.

Wladimir Balentien is hitting like .200 in his past 30 at bats, which are about 1/3 of what he's done so far. He's got power, and he's a regular arm out in the outfield, but that's just too inconsistent right now.

Clement just did awful in the bigs, which is why he's back in AAA. I thought his hitting would be fine in the majors, and he'd have to adjust defensively a bit.

As G said, I'm not too sure about Raben. He looked pretty good having a homer and a double in the Super Regional game last night against Arizona. He has power, but he doesn't have the best bat speed. I'm fine with Fields as long as we can get him through like Morrow; but I would have been a proponent of a better bat and then go for relief later as G also alluded to.

The thing is, we have some GREAT prospects down in AAA and AA; even A ball.

I was really, really pumped about the guys we drafted last year and most all of our top selections are contributing in a big way in their respective minor league systems. Dunigan, Carroll and Almonte are doing well in A ball with Wisconsin; Carroll has the best average, but the other two, in particular Dunigan show the most power. Consistency is key for those guys, but it's no doubt they can field.

Carlos Triunfel continues to impress, but not as much as he was earlier on. He's only 18 and is doing well in High A ball. He's probably only two more years away from being a 20 year old regular in the bigs, and that's special.

Matt Mangini, I believe was called up from High A to AA; and will be MLB ready within two years. He has good power and would be a solid third basemen. Hell, I think he can even let us get rid of Sexson if we put him at first. We need a lefty with power like him; that's why I believe we went for Raben to begin with.

I'm sure I left out a few, but those are just a couple of prospects who should be good MLB caliber ball players. I don't know as much about baseball as some, because I really stopped following it after I quit club ball in high school; but I started keeping a watch right before the draft last year and have been getting into it more.

There's hope for the Mariners, and I think that getting Fields will help us later on this year, and hopefully getting some bats up in the majors in the future will help. We have a lot of duds that need to be let go, Sexson for one.

[keithbishop]

Hopefully, he's got a better mental makeup than Zack. Not as talented, obviously, but Zack has been a bit of nut case so far.

Sad. He was the most exciting Royals pitching prospect in years. I hope he can keep his focus.

[BroncoAV06]

This is a look at the draft from a fantasy perspective but at the same time I thought that it has some god little tid bits on some of the players.


June 7, 2008, 5:25 PM
Drafting college relievers is definitely back in vogue.

Back in the late 90s, teams weren't hesitant to use a top selection on a bullpen arm, with Billy Koch, Matt Anderson, and Braden Looper all going with Top-5 picks in successive years from 1996 to 1998.

Then we had a lull in the trend until the White Sox used a first-round pick on Royce Ring in 2002. Three college closers were taken in 2003 and it has culminated with no fewer than five college relievers being selected this year, as teams seek more immediate returns from their draft haul. We'll get to that in a little bit.

The first-year player draft has usually not even been a blip on the fantasy radar screen, but that has changed in recent years as some of the players chosen not only get to the big leagues quicker, but also make an impact quicker.

Although no player from the 2007 draft has reached the big leagues yet, eight of the top 11 picks from the 2006 draft are currently in the big leagues, and that's not even counting Joba Chamberlain (pick No. 41) and Justin Masterson (pick No. 71).

Ryan Zimmerman was taken in the first round in 2005, and actually made it to the big leagues that same year. Other players from that draft like Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Matt Garza were already making impact by 2007. The wait for returns from top picks is seemingly getting less and less for teams, and that gives the draft increasing importance for fantasy players.

Let's take a moment to acknowledge all the work Keith Law did this week in his phenomenal draft coverage. It was a fantastic, thorough job. My job is to look at the draft from more of a fantasy bend. I've seen more than a few of the top selections in this draft live -- one of the advantages of being out west -- and more on video (which is helpful, but not the same), and I've combined that with some information from trusted sources.

We're going to take a look at two lists; my top fantasy prospects, and the players that may not have the biggest upside, but may get to the big leagues the fastest.

Pedro Alvarez is a sweet swinging infielder.
1. Pedro Alvarez (taken No. 2), 3B, Pirates: The current third-base options for the Pirates are ludicrous. Neil Walker is not hitting at Triple-A. It's wide open for Alvarez to claim this job in short order, and I think Alvarez is the best pure hitter in this draft. He has a short, line drive stroke that generates a lot of power and he has an advanced approach at the plate. He's going to hit for average and power in the big leagues now that he has recovered from a broken hamate bone.
Potential: All-Star third baseman ETA: 2009

2. Buster Posey (taken No. 5), C, Giants: Unlike some other top college catchers that were recently drafted like Walker or Jeff Clement, Posey is going to be a plus backstop defensively, and he's in a system that is pretty barren of catching prospects. He fell a few spots because his upside isn't as great as some of the other players in this draft, but he's a potential .300 hitter with 20-homer pop at a position where that kind of production draws the sharp notice of fantasy owners.
Potential: Top offensive catcher ETA: 2010

3. Tim Beckham (taken No. 1), SS, Rays: He's the most talented player in the draft, but he's going to take a while to develop, so he got bumped down the fantasy list a tiny bit. I couldn't justify him sliding any further. He's drawn comparisons to B.J. Upton, but you could also draw them to Hanley Ramirez. Both of them took at least four years after signing with a professional club before they got a taste of the big leagues.
Potential: All-Star shortstop ETA: 2012

4. Eric Hosmer (taken No. 3), 1B, Royals: In the long run, Billy Butler is still a DH, leaving first base open for Hosmer. He was the best high school bat in the draft, with tremendous bat speed and raw power potential to all fields, who should also be able to hit for average. He's going to be worth the wait.
Potential: All-Star first baseman ETA: 2011

5. Yonder Alonso (taken No. 7), 1B, Reds: His great plate discipline, combined with the ability to hit for average and 30-homer potential make Alonso a pretty sure bet to make the big leagues.
Potential: Four-category fantasy producer at first base ETA: 2011

Justin Smoak has drawn some very favorable comparisons.
6. Justin Smoak (taken No. 11), 1B, Rangers: The switch-hitter has drawn the standard comparisons to both Mark Teixeira and Chipper Jones, and could get to the big leagues a bit quicker than Alonso, given his team situation. His smooth swing generates more power than Alonso's, but he may not hit for as much average.
Potential: Power option at first base ETA: 2010

7. Brett Wallace (taken No. 13), 3B, Cardinals: Defensive concerns pushed him down in the draft a bit, but all fantasy owners care about is that he can hit. He knows the strike zone like his life depends on it, gets great coverage through the hitting areas and will post good on-base percentages with 25 homers. The Cards will have an opening at third base.
Potential: Quietly productive third baseman ETA: 2010

8. Kyle Skipworth (taken No. 6), C, Marlins: One of the safer picks in the draft, Skipworth has drawn comparisons to Joe Mauer, and the Marlins system is largely bereft of catching. He's likely going to be passable enough to stay behind the plate, and unlike Mauer, he'll have a power-over-average emphasis offensively.
Potential: Power hitting catcher ETA: 2012

9.Gordon Beckham (taken No. 8), SS, White Sox: Beckham may switch to second base, as the White Sox will eventually move Alexei Ramirez over to shortstop. I don't think they will be shy about promoting him quickly. He consistently gets good wood on the ball with his line-drive swing, and his strong wrists give him surprising power for his size.
Potential: Michael Young-type offensive player ETA: 2010

10. Brian Matusz (taken No. 4), P, Orioles: The best pitcher in the draft went to a team that needs as much pitching help as it can get. He pitches backwards, using his good secondary stuff to set up his fastball, instead of the other way around, but he's not a soft-tosser and his changeup is a legitimate out pitch. Think "lefty version of Clay Buchholz". He won't spend long in the low minors.
Potential: No. 2 starter ETA: 2009

Sleepers

Kyle Lobstein (taken No. 47), P, Rays: The high school lefty's stock fell this spring, as his velocity was down a tick, and his stuff wasn't as crisp as it had been last year, but he has a clean delivery with three potential plus pitches. His change is a potential knockout offering. There are some Andy Pettitte/Tom Glavine qualities here.

Conor Gillaspie (taken No. 37), 3B, Giants: He's a doubles hitter that could eventually contend for a batting title, and the team needs a third baseman.

Kiel Roling (taken No. 197), C, Rockies: If he can stay behind the plate, his raw power could do major damage in Coors.

Roger Kieschnick (taken No. 82), OF, Giants: Is he another in a long line of failed Giants power prospects? Perhaps, but he could be a five-category fantasy player if he can tighten up what he swings at and make enough contact.

Colby Shreve (taken No. 196), P, Phillies: He already has a mid-90s fastball, with a potential above-average changeup. A few mechanical tweaks may give him more consistent control, and some added depth in his curve ball, which could allow him to take off.

Potentially quickest to the big leagues
As I mentioned before, this list isn't necessarily about who has the biggest upside, but who could get to the majors the quickest. As you would expect, polished college players, especially relievers, dominate the list.

Drafting college closers is by no means a sure method of getting a quick return, or a reliable bet for fantasy owners chasing saves.

Chad Cordero was selected in the first round in 2003, and was closing in the big leagues by 2004, but fellow first-rounders David Aardsma and Ryan Wagner have struggled.

Huston Street was drafted as a supplemental first round pick in 2004, and was closing in the majors by 2005, but Bill Bray, who was drafted ahead of him, is still trying to establish himself in the big leagues.

Craig Hansen and Joey Devine were both drafted in 2005 and made the big leagues that same year, with Devine even pitching in the postseason, but it wasn't until this season that both have shown signs they are ready to stick with the big club.

Brandon Morrow was drafted in 2006 as a starter, but he and Mets' third-rounder Joseph Smith both made opening day rosters in 2007.

Last season, the Rockies used a high first-rounder on Casey Weathers, and the Mets took Eddie Kunz as a supplemental first round pick. Both are showing dominance at Double-A, with Kunz closing, and appear to be on the fast track.

The bottom line is that the results have been decidedly mixed for teams that have tried that route. However, it didn't stop the the college closers from coming off of the board quickly in this draft, with five taken in the first round, and a few more in the second and third rounds.

Ryan Perry could see time in the majors this season.
1. Ryan Perry, RP, Tigers: The Tigers are trying to win right now, and are desperate for bullpen help. He's probably behind Joel Zumaya in the future closer pecking order. As Law has pointed out, the Tigers took college relievers with their next two picks as well, and both Cody Satterwhite and Scott Green could jump to the big league level quickly as well. Those two players might not make the jump well so quickly. Perry can.
2. Daniel Schlereth, RP, D-backs: With Doug Slaten the team's only lefty option in the bullpen, they will look for Schlereth's power arm to move quickly through the system as the team makes a playoff run.
3. Josh Fields, RP, Mariners: He will be the team's future closer and give the team more flexibility to move Brandon Morrow to the rotation. He might be the best bet for saves in this draft class.
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Andrew Cashner, RP, Cubs: He's another college closer that could find himself in a setup role in the big leagues fairly quickly with his fastball/slider combo.
6. Brian Matusz
7. Aaron Weatherford, RP, Rockies: He'll be following right behind Casey Weathers on the fast track to a Rockies bullpen that is likely to get a big overhaul by next season.
8. Brett Wallace
9. Christian Friedrich, SP, Rockies: The Rockies pushed Greg Reynolds quickly, and they could so the same with this polished first-rounder.
10. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets: The heir apparent to Carlos Delgado may not hit for much average, but he can bring the homers.
11. Conor Gillaspie
12. Gordon Beckham
13. Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Royals: There are some comparisons to Marcus Giles, and his strike zone judgement could help him move quickly.
14. Zack Stewart, RP, Reds: Drafted in the third round, he's another college closer that could accelerate to the big leagues quickly in a middle relief/setup role
15. Daniel Espinosa, SS, Nationals: Long Beach State shortstops (Bobby Crosby, Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria) have had a good track record, and ability to move quickly to the big leagues. Espinosa isn't as polished as the others when they went pro, but he could improve quickly.

Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.