#1 Pick: Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson

[BroncoWave]

So I just drew the #1 pick in my money league and I must make the decision between Peterson and Johnson. Every article and poll I have read is split right down the middle and I've gone back and forth several times myself and still have 2 months to decide. Any thoughts from anyone here on what I should do would be greatly appreciated. I would much rather have gotten the #2 pick so I wouldn't have had to choose and to have gotten a better second round pick but it is what it is. Peterson seems like a safer pick and I'm slightly leaning toward him but I could still go either way.

[BroncoBJ]

:lol: I hate having the 1st pick any time man. I've been in the same money league for 4, going on 5 years now. And the only time I had the #1 pick was when it was our 1st year all together in that league. We drew it random and I came away with the #1 pick. But every year after that, the #1 pick gets determined based on record. So worst team gets #1 pick. Best gets 12th pick. I usually seem to draft in the 8-12 range every year though it seems and I like that more because I can just pick a RB and a WR or like last year I took 2 WR's right away and ended up getting good sleeper RB's later. And I don't have to wait long between picks. So I really hate the top 3 or 4 picks.

But to make a long story short... That year when I had the #1 pick. I went back and forth between LJ or LT. LJ was coming off a great 2nd half of the season and I thought he might keep momentum and have a great 2006 season. So I drafted him over LT. The year LT went off like a madman setting records like crazy. I'm still pissed about that because I had a dope team and I would have won it all that year if I had LT. I outscored everyone that year and the guy with 2nd most points had LT and I played him in the 1st round of the playoffs and lost. Scored 2nd most points that week but had to play him.

Hella pisses me off.

So I'll say choose wisely ;)

But if I had a choice, I'd choose Chris Johnson. Guy seems like he can do it all and better then AP. He reminds me of Portis when he was in Denver. Had he stuck around, a lot of records would be shattered.

But eh, it sucks having to choose like that. I know I hate it.

[Northman]

Johnson

[Lonestar]

peterson as he has the best support cast around him.

[turftoad]

I would pick CJ.
Peterson has had fumbling whoas so Gerhart will probably eat into his short yardage, goal line carries.
CJ is also a great back out of the backfield on passing downs too.

Don't get me wrong, it's a tough choice this year cuz AP iw awesome, you can't go wrong either way but I'd pick CJ cuz of reasons listed above.

[BroncoWave]

I'm not really worried about Peterson's fumbles. That's by far his #1 concern this offseason and I have no doubt he will have that fixed. Also, I have doubts that Johnson will replicate his numbers from last season. Peterson has been consistently great for 3 years and Johnson will now have to live up to the pressure of being the best back in the NFL. Plus if Favre comes back, Peterson has less guys in the box to worry about whereas no one really fears VY's passing and they will be gearing up to stop Johnson. Another thing, Peterson doesn't have Chester Taylor to eat up touches so he has a chance to get even more carries and catches. I don't think Gerhart will have the same impact Taylor had.

But still as of now, I have no idea who I'm going to pick first in 2 months. I would never root for anything bad to happen to either player but I almost hope something happens between now and then that would make my decision easier! :lol:

[underrated29]

Tough call.

AP- solid, fumbles, better team, better OL, gerhart


CJ-fast, fast, no real RB behind him to steal touches, VY....


If its me, without looking at schedule. I go AP...AP is just too good in every aspect and IMO has better surrounding pieces. I do not trust CJ to stay healthy all year (although ap can have that too) and I do not think CJ gets anywhere near what he did...


I do not want to take away from CJs numbers, but a lot of those plays will not be happening again. For his sake I say so, but personally I am not sure. I would go AP first as of now, if it was me. we will see how things change as we get closer to TC/Preseason.

[EMB6903]

All Day no doubt about it.

No way possible Chris Johnson repeats that production he had last year.... And no way AD has as bad of a year he had last year.

[BroncoWave]

All Day no doubt about it.

No way possible Chris Johnson repeats that production he had last year.... And no way AD has as bad of a year he had last year.

This is my line of thinking as well. CJ had an all-time great year last year and AP was a little off by his standards. I just can't see how either of those things repeat this year. CJ just has to fall off a bit this year and without Taylor in the mix and with all the crap he's had to hear about fumbling, I think Peterson just has a huge season this year.

[Mike]

You should take Moreno.

[GEM]

CJ may not even play if he doesn't get the contract he wants, just something else to add the wondering.

[Poet]

CJ is the wrong pick. AP has enough weapons around him to prevent teams selling out on the run, especially if Favre comes back. He's more proven, more consistent, has a better offensive line and his team is better. That matters because they will hand him the ball to ICE games while the Titans will probably have to air the ball out in order to catch up. Not saying that the Titans are a bad team, I think that they'll be a wild card contender, but their division is brutal.

I don't think CJ will ever hit 1600 yards rushing again. I think that he's a good back that had a year that was unbelievable, but he's going to be a big fantasy disappointment.

[BroncoWave]

CJ is the wrong pick. AP has enough weapons around him to prevent teams selling out on the run, especially if Favre comes back. He's more proven, more consistent, has a better offensive line and his team is better. That matters because they will hand him the ball to ICE games while the Titans will probably have to air the ball out in order to catch up. Not saying that the Titans are a bad team, I think that they'll be a wild card contender, but their division is brutal.

I don't think CJ will ever hit 1600 yards rushing again. I think that he's a good back that had a year that was unbelievable, but he's going to be a big fantasy disappointment.

To be fair, while I agree with most of what you said, CJ was still getting his when the Titans were 0-6.

[Poet]

To be fair, while I agree with most of what you said, CJ was still getting his when the Titans were 0-6.

Fair enough.

[BroncoWave]

After seeing this interview with Johnson, this worries me even more. If he has a prolonged holdout, that's a great recipe for not being in shape for the season and getting injured. He also doesn't seem like the smartest guy ever so it wouldn't shock me to see him hold out into the season.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5311357&categoryid=2378529

[BroncoWave]

Here's an interesting stat I found. This is the rushing totals for running backs the years after they've gotten 2000 yards:

Dickerson: 1234
Simpson: 1125
Sanders: 1491
Davis: 211
Lewis: 1006

All 5 backs that have done it have failed to even reach the 1500 yard mark the next season. Simpson and Dickerson both bounced back 2 years later, Sanders retired, Davis was done, and Lewis was above average for the rest of his career.

Kinda goes to show how much wear and tear rushing for 2000 puts on your body and how hard it is to stay at a top level the next season. Will be interesting to see how Johnson breaks this trend.

[Poet]

Here's an interesting stat I found. This is the rushing totals for running backs the years after they've gotten 2000 yards:

Dickerson: 1234
Simpson: 1125
Sanders: 1491
Davis: 211
Lewis: 1006

All 5 backs that have done it have failed to even reach the 1500 yard mark the next season. Simpson and Dickerson both bounced back 2 years later, Sanders retired, Davis was done, and Lewis was above average for the rest of his career.

Kinda goes to show how much wear and tear rushing for 2000 puts on your body and how hard it is to stay at a top level the next season. Will be interesting to see how Johnson breaks this trend.
Davis was a hoss and then tore as ACL, Lewis went to jail and was never the same. I think a big part of that was teams did nothing other than play the run. I'd be interested in seeing those team's QB's numbers in those years as well.

:salute:

[Slick]

Be a bad ass. Take a kicker.

[BroncoWave]

Be a bad ass. Take a kicker.

:lol: As much as I love flushing 20 dollars down the toilet...

[BroncoWave]

Wound up going with Chris Johnson. Just had a slightly better feeling about him.

Here is my team (12-team league)

QB: Romo, Orton, Tebow (I know, I know. last pick of the draft, couldn't resist)
RB: Johnson, Forte, Spiller, Hightower, McCluster
WR: Austin, Ochocinco, M. Wallace, V. Jackson, McCluster (can be used as RB/WR)
TE: V. Davis, G. Olsen
K: Prater
D: New Orleans

[Poet]

I'm starting to think that your Spiller pick could pay off for you.

I can understand the C.J. pick. I just look at him as a very good player who had an elite season and view A.P. as an elite player who had a 'down' year.

I doubt you're going to complain much regardless of who you got.

I think that if Favre did not come back then A.P. becomes the entire offense (again) and then becomes the pick.

[BroncoWave]

My favorite pick was Vincent Jackson because I got him in later in the draft because everyone was scared to pick him. If he actually plays, he is a damn good WR. It will be the steal of the draft if he can even come close to his numbers from last season.

Also, this is a PPR league so I tried to focus on backs who catch a lot of balls which made Forte more attractive.

[turftoad]

Wound up going with Chris Johnson. Just had a slightly better feeling about him.

Here is my team (12-team league)

QB: Romo, Orton, Tebow (I know, I know. last pick of the draft, couldn't resist)
RB: Johnson, Forte, Spiller, Hightower, McCluster
WR: Austin, Ochocinco, M. Wallace, V. Jackson, McCluster (can be used as RB/WR)
TE: V. Davis, G. Olsen
K: Prater
D: New Orleans

You did well. Looks like you'll compete. :salute: