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atwater27
04-25-2010, 05:39 PM
NFL Draft History: Quarterback Busts


By Matt McGuire


Send Matt an e-mail here: mmcguire5@gmail.com
All other e-mail, including advertising and link proposals, send to: wpc112@gmail.com


Last week, the most epic NFL Draft debate of all-time took place on ESPN. As always, it was Mel Kiper versus Todd McShay, and they were talking about what they would do with the No. 1 overall pick in terms of selecting Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford or another player.

Mel Kiper Jr. was campaigning for Stafford, implying how a quarterback's positional value is so important in football. Since Stafford is worthy of a No. 1 pick talent-wise, he should be taken.

Here was McShay's argument against Stafford, "If you don't love a guy and think he is going to be the No. 1 quarterback and can lead your franchise, you don't draft him at No. 1 (overall). History tells you that's the biggest mistake you can make."

The debate basically boiled down to McShay not thinking Stafford has enough value to be taken No. 1. McShay doesn't think being a quarterback increases your value on Draft Day.

Meanwhile, I have always maintained, "If you do not know where you have been, you have no clue where you are going."

In this article, I am going to break down why quarterbacks bust and how to spot future busts. We will then analyze Matthew Stafford and determine if he is worthy of being a No. 1 overall pick.

Basically, there are three reasons a quarterback will bust, two of which can be avoided in foresight:


1. System Quarterback
2. Lacks Intangibles
3. Lacks Offensive Line


1. System Quarterback

Let's take a look at the first way a quarterbacks can bust, and this is being a system quarterback. There are a few offenses that can make a quarterback produce better numbers than his talent level indicates.

Keep in mind that this does not mean every quarterback coming out of a spread option or run n' shoot will bust in the NFL. It just means you have to do your homework on the prospect.

Being in a gimmick offense in college can hinder a prospect's chances in the NFL. The terminology is much easier in a gimmick offense. You do not have to understand pass protection schemes, you are forced to learn a bigger playbook, and the familiarity level is very low compared to an NFL spread or West Coast offense.

These offenses generally always are shotgun-oriented, so a quarterback's vision is greatly decreased when he gets to the NFL. He has to learn how to work his progression reads under center while dropping back. He has to be able to see over the line of scrimmage and identify hot routes.

In the shotgun, you are not moving very much and your head and eyes are still. This makes your quarterback vision look better than what it really is. Also in the shotgun in college, pass protection becomes easier. Your offensive line has more time to anticipate the rush in the two point stance, and in a gimmick offense you get rid of the ball much more quickly, decreasing the odds of getting sacked or hurried.

Also in a gimmick offense, the routes are shorter and your arm strength is not exposed. Arm strength must be evaluated heavily by NFL scouts and personnel. Arm strength is not everything (like any other skill), but it is very important.

Based on my research, here is a list of quarterbacks who busted that played in a spread option, run n' shoot, etc. and were taken relatively high in the first round:


Jerry Tagge (1972)
Rich Campbell (1981)
Todd Blackledge (1982)
Kelly Stouffer (1987)
Andre Ware (1990)
David Klinger (1992)
Heath Shuler (1994)
Tim Couch (1999)
Akili Smith (1999)
Cade McNown (1999)
Alex Smith (2005)
Vince Young (2006) is potentially a bust


If you can really do your homework on these gimmick-offense quarterbacks in college and ensure they have the proper arm strength, talent level, and football intelligence to play the position, then you will not end up with a bust for this reason.



2. Lacks Intangibles

To be a capable starting quarterback in the NFL, you must have the appropriate mental makeup and work ethic to play the position. If you have a bad attitude, the coaching staff and locker room will not respect you. You need to be able to overcome adversity and be somewhat of a leader. You do not have to be a lights-out intangible guy such as a Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger to be successful in the NFL.

However, if you do not have the work ethic or leadership skills necessary to play the position, you will bust. Here is my list of quarterbacks who busted in the NFL because they simply lacked the intangibles even an average quarterback has:


Art Schlichter (1982)
Jeff George (1990)
Andre Ware (1990)
Dan McGwire (1991)
Todd Marinovich (1991)
Tommy Maddox (1992)
Rick Mirer (1993)
Jim Druckenmiller (1997)
Ryan Leaf (1998)
Tim Couch (1999)
Cade McNown (1999)
Joey Harrington (2002)
J.P. Losman (2004)
Vince Young (2006) is potentially a bust
Matt Leinart (2006) is potentially a bust
JaMarcus Russell (2007) is potentially a bust


You must find out if your quarterback prospect has the work ethic, poise and leadership to be a successful NFL quarterback. If you do not and you draft him high, he will end up on the above list.



3. Lacks Offensive Line

I went on the Tulsa Sports Animal in January for an interview. I made this statement and stand by it, "You could put together the prototype for the position at quarterback, and if he doesn't have people blocking for him, then he is going to bust - period."

If you do not have time in the pocket to make your progression reads and get the pass off, you will struggle in the NFL. Not only this, but if you get pressured too much, your confidence will drop like a rock, and in some cases it'll never recover.

Here is a list of quarterbacks who busted in the NFL because they were not given they offensive line they needed at the next level, and as a result their confidence was shot:


David Klinger (1992)
Tim Couch (1999)
David Carr (2002)
Joey Harrington (2002)
Alex Smith (2005)


Now, we have discussed just about every quarterback bust in NFL history, and as you can see, they all fall under one or more of the three factors as to why a quarterback prospect could bust in the NFL.

As an extension of the epic Kiper vs. McShay debate, I will investigate Stafford into these three categories and determine his probability of busting in the NFL, since that is what McShay and Lions fans are so scared of.

1. System Quarterback: This does not apply to Stafford in any shape or form. He ran a very pro-style West Coast offense at the University of Georgia. Stafford also has elite arm strength and physical tools. He is not a product of the talent around him. He is said to have high football intelligence and can pick up an NFL playbook as well as learn the extensive playbook terminology.

2. Lacks Intangibles: From everything I have heard about Stafford, he has very high intangibles. He is a leader for the Georgia offense and willed the Bulldogs to a few wins last season in the SEC. He can overcome adversity and he's tough in the pocket.

3. Lacks an Offensive Line: The Detroit Lions are not limited to just the No. 1 overall pick. They can invest in a left tackle such as Michael Oher or William Beatty at No. 20 and solidify their offensive line. Jeff Backus will kick inside to left guard. The Lions re-signed Stephen Peterman. They invested a first-round pick last year in Gosder Cherilus. They can acquire a center in the draft or free agency.

Also, keep in mind Stafford will only be a 21 year-old rookie. He might not be ready to go early on, which is fine. You can develop the offensive line in the draft and free agency. If you have to sit Stafford for one season like the Bengals did with Carson Palmer, then that is OK. If Detroit drafts a left tackle at No. 20, the offensive line should not be an issue with Stafford's development.

Based on my research, Stafford has an extremely low probability of busting if Detroit gives him an offensive line. This would not be the first team drafting No. 1 overall who eventually put the offensive line in place for their quarterback to succeed, and it will not be the last.

There is more to a quarterback busting than just being drafted high. We can see there are three factors that go into a quarterback's bust factor, and Stafford simply does not fall into the typical bust mold.

I don't know. Maybe McShay will get the memo soon, but as for now, history tells me the biggest mistake you can make is not actually studying NFL Draft history.
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackbusts.php

atwater27
04-25-2010, 05:40 PM
I'd say Tebow has the intangibles and the offensive line, now will the system thing jack up his chances or not?

OrangeHoof
04-25-2010, 06:47 PM
NFL Draft History: Quarterback Busts

By Matt McGuire

Speaking of first-round quarterback busts... (yes, I know, it was McGwire - Mark's brother)

secund2nun
04-25-2010, 06:50 PM
The article is wrong on Vince Young. He is not a bust and Alex Smith has turned into an average QB.

KyleOrtonArmySoldier#128
04-25-2010, 06:51 PM
Alex smith had a great year in 09 and vince young is far from a bust.

silkamilkamonico
04-25-2010, 07:17 PM
I believe this article was written before the 2009 season, before Smith had his comeback of sorts and Young remerged as a very good NFL "winning" QB.

WARHORSE
04-26-2010, 12:03 AM
So Tebow has alot going for him.


One thing I always wondered...........why teams that take a QB like say........Colt Brennan......who was prolific in college to the Nth level in a spread offense, then turn around and play him in your offense under center.


I believe in what McD is doing. You pick the players that fit your system.


Tebow played in a spread offense. What do we run most of the time?


Ta da! Its not that hard is it.


Tebow is not a slight QB. He is not frail. He is not injury prone. He is a tough, hard nosed footballer that plays QB like a linebacker when he runs.


He CAN pass, as evidenced by his stats.

AND if he wants to become great, he has a LOT to do in order to learn to shorten his motion, read defenses.


I look for McD to coach him up, and I look for Orton and Quinn to give him the time to do so.


Bring it on NFL!

FanInAZ
04-26-2010, 01:22 AM
I believe this article was written before the 2009 season, before Smith had his comeback of sorts and Young remerged as a very good NFL "winning" QB.

:2thumbs: You are correct :2thumbs: This article was written as a response to the pre-debate between Mel Kiper & Todd McShay over whether or not Matthew Stafford was worthy to be the #1 pick of last year's draft :2thumbs:



Last week, the most epic NFL Draft debate of all-time took place on ESPN. As always, it was Mel Kiper versus Todd McShay, and they were talking about what they would do with the No. 1 overall pick in terms of selecting Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford or another player.

Mel Kiper Jr. was campaigning for Stafford, implying how a quarterback's positional value is so important in football. Since Stafford is worthy of a No. 1 pick talent-wise, he should be taken.

Here was McShay's argument against Stafford, "If you don't love a guy and think he is going to be the No. 1 quarterback and can lead your franchise, you don't draft him at No. 1 (overall). History tells you that's the biggest mistake you can make."

The debate basically boiled down to McShay not thinking Stafford has enough value to be taken No. 1. McShay doesn't think being a quarterback increases your value on Draft Day.

Meanwhile, I have always maintained, "If you do not know where you have been, you have no clue where you are going."

In this article, I am going to break down why quarterbacks bust and how to spot future busts. We will then analyze Matthew Stafford and determine if he is worthy of being a No. 1 overall pick.

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackbusts.php

Fan in Exile
04-26-2010, 07:08 AM
The thing this article gets wrong is that it's not always the QB's fault when he busts. A lot of the blame has to go on the coaching he gets/doesn't get. Or the scheme that he gets put into.

Take Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. He was a system Qb in college with bad mechanics. However Green Bay was able to sit him for three years to fix that problem and now he's a QB most teams would love to have.

This is why I'm confident about Tebow, because we've got Orton for this year and Quinn if he needs more time than that.

LRtagger
04-26-2010, 06:14 PM
Matt McGuire is a douche.

He writes that last year and this year claims Tebow was not even on his board as a QB. Obviously he is a Kiper nuthugger (as shown in this article and in the fact that Kiper was the other analyst that said Tebow was better suited as an H-back than a QB).

LoyalSoldier
04-26-2010, 08:13 PM
Alex smith had a great year in 09 and vince young is far from a bust.

If they aren't probowl QBs then they are busts because of where they were taken. If you drafted them #1 or #3 overall they better be one of the best in the league. Now you can still be a bust and be a decent QB.

There is a difference between being a bust and being a bum. Though sometimes they co-inside.

Ravage!!!
04-26-2010, 08:36 PM
I think Vince Young and Smith are very much on the verge of being a bust. I think VY is still a bad NFL QB. If either one has another bad season....its bust all over it. Young will fail this season.

I absolutely hope our newly drafted QB is NOT another Vince Young

atwater27
04-26-2010, 09:00 PM
Vince Young is a horrible passer. I know, there are worse ones. I like his competitiveness and his athletic ability, but he is basicall Kordell Stewart II.
Now I didn't say he can't win games, he has shown that ability. I just think he is a horrible passer. And Alex Smith has a very low ceiling. If the 9ers want to go anywhere past mediocre, they need another quarterback at the helm.

CrazyHorse
04-27-2010, 09:00 AM
I think Vince Young and Smith are very much on the verge of being a bust. I think VY is still a bad NFL QB. If either one has another bad season....its bust all over it. Young will fail this season.

I absolutely hope our newly drafted QB is NOT another Vince Young

Tebow's not dumb as rock like Vince Young, he carries a higher morale too. Vince Young had emotional issues.
Our offense is drastically different than Tennessee's. It will probably be tailored around his strengths. I expect combination of wild horses and the spread.

SOCALORADO.
04-27-2010, 09:10 AM
Look, bottom line is hes Tim Tebow and your not, so the next time you criticize his "irregular throwing motion", whatever the #### that means, i suggest you drink a nice tall glass of shut the #### up. Tim wins, period.

Join us next time as we profile interception machine, Jay Cutler as he starts his post NFL career as a greeter at Wall Mart.
Thanks for stopping by!

Northman
04-27-2010, 09:13 AM
Lmao, this board makes me laugh.

Nomad
04-27-2010, 09:19 AM
Lmao, this board makes me laugh.

Laughter is very healthy, it's better than misery!!:D

broncobryce
04-27-2010, 10:00 AM
Look, bottom line is hes Tim Tebow and your not, so the next time you criticize his "irregular throwing motion", whatever the #### that means, i suggest you drink a nice tall glass of shut the #### up. Tim wins, period.

Join us next time as we profile interception machine, Jay Cutler as he starts his post NFL career as a greeter at Wall Mart.
Thanks for stopping by!

That's funny. :lol: As far as the comparison from Vince to Tim Tebow, if Tebow got benched or whatever he wouldn't want to kill himself, he would go ballistic with the playbook and practice field until he was the starter again.

SOCALORADO.
04-27-2010, 10:04 AM
That's funny. :lol: As far as the comparison from Vince to Tim Tebow, if Tebow got benched or whatever he wouldn't want to kill himself, he would go ballistic with the playbook and practice field until he was the starter again.

Its from the video that has its own thread on the forum!
Watch it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7xFz...layer_embedded

broncobryce
04-27-2010, 10:07 AM
I think it's posted wrong. What is it supposed to be?

SOCALORADO.
04-27-2010, 10:13 AM
I think it's posted wrong. What is it supposed to be?

http://www.broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137595

Lonestar
04-27-2010, 01:32 PM
Tebow's not dumb as rock like Vince Young, he carries a higher morale too. Vince Young had emotional issues.
Our offense is drastically different than Tennessee's. It will probably be tailored around his strengths. I expect combination of wild horses and the spread.

VY is a not a great passer or was not in college. OK but not great he lived and died with his feet getting him ahead.


That's funny. :lol: As far as the comparison from Vince to Tim Tebow, if Tebow got benched or whatever he wouldn't want to kill himself, he would go ballistic with the playbook and practice field until he was the starter again.


Whereas a lot of pundits would love to see Tim fail I do not think that word is in his vocabulary.

Intangibles will allow him to become a winner in the NFL, now he may never be a pro blower like some, but he will be a good to great QB.

Much has been said about funky throwing motion yet many have bee come great QB's with them Kosar, and lately Rivers.