titan
04-01-2010, 04:51 PM
see this article at:
http://www.profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=&id=147
Drop Percentage study (Part 1)
In the first of a two-part feature, Pro Football Focus' Khaled Elsayed looks at the catching success of wide receivers to see which players are dropping the most balls. A critical component of any receiver's play, the unique Drop Percentage that PFF produces delves into an element of play that can often be overblown by a highlight-reel drop or ignored because of highlight-reel catches…
There are many different talents that go into creating an elite wide receiver. They need the right blend of athleticism, the right mental attributes and an ability to run excellent routes. But what would a receiver be if he did everything to get in position, or could do everything once he had the ball in his hand, if he couldn't hold on to the ball when it is thrown his way? With this question in mind, the Drop Percentage looks at how many drops a player has in relation to the number of balls he got his hands to (it would be wrong to say "catchable balls," as this percentage wouldn't take account of wide receiver slips, for example). There is some subjectivity in classifying a "dropped pass," but the uniformed standards we use at Pro Football Focus at least allows us to consistently measure a drop as when a receiver gets "his hands on a ball you would reasonably expect to be caught," as according to PFF Lead Analyst Ben Stockwell.
As for the formula used -- it's a very simple one (with a qualifying minimum of 30 balls a receiver got his hands to):
[Dropped Passes/(Dropped Passes + Receptions)] x 100 = Drop Percentage
Now that is out of the way, we'll get on to the findings and start off with the bad news. It's bad news for Chiefs fans in particular, as they are the only team that have three players ranked in the "top" 10 (remembering this is one rating system in which you don't want to be high). Mark Bradley dropped an astounding quarter of the balls thrown his way, Bobby Wade missed almost one-fifth of balls he got his hands to (good for fourth) and the disappointing Dwayne Bowe finished ninth after dropping 16 percent of balls he had a good chance of catching. Although Matt Cassel didn't look splendid in his first season with Kansas City, stats like these show he really wasn't helped by those around him at all. Indeed, it provides the starkest of contrasts to see what the incumbent receivers did compared to in-season acquisition Chris Chambers. Chambers only dropped one ball to have one of the ten most impressive Drop Percentages.
Moving on to some of the more expected disappointments, we come to two players who received their fair share of criticism in 2009. Both Ted Ginn and Roy Williams were lambasted by their own fans and by the media in general, and their Drop Percentage goes part of the way to showing why. Ginn has fallen a long way short of living up to his draft status (even with those two returns against the Jets) and in 2009 he cemented his reputation as a guy who struggles catching the ball, following up his six-drop 2008 campaign with 10 drops in '09 (in stark contrast to teammate Greg Camarillo, who was one of three players not to drop any passes). This was good for a 20.83 Drop Percentage and ranked him third, three spots above a guy who has had some problems since moving to Dallas.
Williams' 17.39 Drop Percentage is a big reason why he has taken so much criticism -- although if it's any consolation for Cowboys fans, at least they don't have to contend with Williams and Terrell Owens forming one of the most prolific pass-dropping tandems in the league. T.O. was permitted to take his case of the dropsies to Buffalo, where his 10 drops saw him finish just outside the top ten. In more good news for Cowboys fans, as bad as Williams has been, Miles Austin is almost as good. He had the 17th-lowest Drop Percentage -- clearly a factor in his breakout season.
Though Austin wasn't the only one breaking out. With some assistance from Brett Favre, Sidney Rice exploded onto the scene with 1,322 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. The 6-foot-4 receiver was always known for great body control and exceptional hands, and those attributes helped him catch a number of tough balls and, more importantly for the purpose of this article, drop just three passes. Players like Rice, Austin and Mike Sims-Walker (12th-lowest percentage) got themselves noticed in '09, and a large part of it was their ability to bring in the balls thrown their way.
These men will all be looking to join the more established receivers, many of whom excel at not dropping the ball. The Cardinals were regarded as having the best group of receivers in '09 and their three main weapons had excellent numbers, with Larry Fitzgerald's 11th-lowest Drop Percentage leading the way. While the debate rages between who is the best receiver between Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald clearly dominated the drop count for the second consecutive year. While Fitzgerald only dropped a staggering three percent of passes, Johnson found himself middle of the pack by dropping 8.18 percent. Texans fan won't be too disappointed with Johnson though (he still caught 101 balls) and will take solace in having resigned Kevin Walter -- who finished with the fourth-lowest Drop Percentage -- and retaining David Anderson (sixth-lowest).
And now mention to one of the more underrated performers and one of the more (unfairly) criticized receivers -- both of whom play for the New York Jets. Braylon Edwards had some drops that stuck in the mind and came to New York with a reputation for dropping the ball after a disastrous '08 season with the Browns, but it may shock some people that he only dropped four regular-season passes. This left him with a lower rating than Donald Driver, Marques Colston and ex-Jets receivers Santana Moss and Laveranues Coles. Edwards doesn't have the greatest hands, but it seems he was a victim of his rep (and of the highlight-reel plays taking over the body of his work). Teammate Jerricho Cotchery finds himself in a vastly different situation. Possibly one of the most underrated receivers in the league, Cotchery doesn't do a whole lot wrong and his Drop Percentage was unsurprisingly low at just 3.99 percent.
But for some people 3.99 percent is a figure to be laughed at, and so it would be unfair not to mention the trio of receivers who managed to not drop a single pass. We've already mentioned the reliable Camarillo, but give some credit to a guy who seemed like a bust not too long ago in Robert Meachem, who seems to have really turned things around for himself in New Orleans. The final member of this elite club of dropless receivers is Philadelphia Eagles slot receiver Jason Avant. Avant is the type of player you always expect to see on these lists -- he finished 2008 with a single drop and had none last season. He may not be an every-down receiver, but his work over the last two years show he may be the most sure-handed guy in the league.
Finishing things off, we'll take a look at the rookies and what they were able to produce. Darius Heyward-Bey didn't have enough catchable balls thrown his way to qualify (otherwise he would have had the highest Drop Percentage), but Raiders teammate Louis Murphy had the highest percentage for a rookie, dropping seven balls. On the other end of the scale, the Jaguars Mike Thomas dropped only one ball to end up with the fifth-lowest percentage, and for the most part the rest of the '09 rookie class performed admirably. Hakeem Nicks and Austin Collie ended up in the "bottom" 25 with two and three drops respectively, while the somewhat controversial Michael Crabtree finished with a below-average 9.34 Drop Percentage. All in all, the rookies didn't seem to have much trouble dealing with the most fundamental aspect of being a receiver -- catching a catchable ball.
Top 10 Drop Percentage
Name Team Catches Drops Drop %
Mark Bradley Kansas City Chiefs 24 8 25.00
James Jones Green Bay Packers 32 9 21.95
Ted Ginn Miami Dolphins 38 10 20.83
Bobby Wade Kansas City Chiefs 37 8 17.78
Justin Gage Tennesse Titans 28 6 17.65
Roy E. Williams Dallas Cowboys 38 8 17.39
Louis Murphy Oakland Raiders 34 7 17.07
Bryant Johnson Detroit Lions 36 7 16.28
Dwayne Bowe Kansas City Chiefs 47 9 16.07
Jacoby Jones Houston Texans 27 5 15.63
Bottom 10 Drop Percentage
Name Team Catches Drops Drop %
Greg Camarillo Miami Dolphins 50 0 0
Robert Meachem New Orleans Saints 45 0 0
Jason Avant Philadelphia Eagles 41 0 0
Kevin Walter Houston Texans 53 1 1.85
Mike Thomas Jacksonville Jaguars 48 1 2.04
David Anderson Houston Texans 38 1 2.56
Eddie Royal Denver Broncos 37 1 2.63
Chris Chambers Kansas City Chiefs 36 1 2.70
Vincent Jackson San Diego Chargers 68 2 2.86
Reggie Wayne Indianapolis Colts 100 3 2.91
http://www.profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=&id=147
Drop Percentage study (Part 1)
In the first of a two-part feature, Pro Football Focus' Khaled Elsayed looks at the catching success of wide receivers to see which players are dropping the most balls. A critical component of any receiver's play, the unique Drop Percentage that PFF produces delves into an element of play that can often be overblown by a highlight-reel drop or ignored because of highlight-reel catches…
There are many different talents that go into creating an elite wide receiver. They need the right blend of athleticism, the right mental attributes and an ability to run excellent routes. But what would a receiver be if he did everything to get in position, or could do everything once he had the ball in his hand, if he couldn't hold on to the ball when it is thrown his way? With this question in mind, the Drop Percentage looks at how many drops a player has in relation to the number of balls he got his hands to (it would be wrong to say "catchable balls," as this percentage wouldn't take account of wide receiver slips, for example). There is some subjectivity in classifying a "dropped pass," but the uniformed standards we use at Pro Football Focus at least allows us to consistently measure a drop as when a receiver gets "his hands on a ball you would reasonably expect to be caught," as according to PFF Lead Analyst Ben Stockwell.
As for the formula used -- it's a very simple one (with a qualifying minimum of 30 balls a receiver got his hands to):
[Dropped Passes/(Dropped Passes + Receptions)] x 100 = Drop Percentage
Now that is out of the way, we'll get on to the findings and start off with the bad news. It's bad news for Chiefs fans in particular, as they are the only team that have three players ranked in the "top" 10 (remembering this is one rating system in which you don't want to be high). Mark Bradley dropped an astounding quarter of the balls thrown his way, Bobby Wade missed almost one-fifth of balls he got his hands to (good for fourth) and the disappointing Dwayne Bowe finished ninth after dropping 16 percent of balls he had a good chance of catching. Although Matt Cassel didn't look splendid in his first season with Kansas City, stats like these show he really wasn't helped by those around him at all. Indeed, it provides the starkest of contrasts to see what the incumbent receivers did compared to in-season acquisition Chris Chambers. Chambers only dropped one ball to have one of the ten most impressive Drop Percentages.
Moving on to some of the more expected disappointments, we come to two players who received their fair share of criticism in 2009. Both Ted Ginn and Roy Williams were lambasted by their own fans and by the media in general, and their Drop Percentage goes part of the way to showing why. Ginn has fallen a long way short of living up to his draft status (even with those two returns against the Jets) and in 2009 he cemented his reputation as a guy who struggles catching the ball, following up his six-drop 2008 campaign with 10 drops in '09 (in stark contrast to teammate Greg Camarillo, who was one of three players not to drop any passes). This was good for a 20.83 Drop Percentage and ranked him third, three spots above a guy who has had some problems since moving to Dallas.
Williams' 17.39 Drop Percentage is a big reason why he has taken so much criticism -- although if it's any consolation for Cowboys fans, at least they don't have to contend with Williams and Terrell Owens forming one of the most prolific pass-dropping tandems in the league. T.O. was permitted to take his case of the dropsies to Buffalo, where his 10 drops saw him finish just outside the top ten. In more good news for Cowboys fans, as bad as Williams has been, Miles Austin is almost as good. He had the 17th-lowest Drop Percentage -- clearly a factor in his breakout season.
Though Austin wasn't the only one breaking out. With some assistance from Brett Favre, Sidney Rice exploded onto the scene with 1,322 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. The 6-foot-4 receiver was always known for great body control and exceptional hands, and those attributes helped him catch a number of tough balls and, more importantly for the purpose of this article, drop just three passes. Players like Rice, Austin and Mike Sims-Walker (12th-lowest percentage) got themselves noticed in '09, and a large part of it was their ability to bring in the balls thrown their way.
These men will all be looking to join the more established receivers, many of whom excel at not dropping the ball. The Cardinals were regarded as having the best group of receivers in '09 and their three main weapons had excellent numbers, with Larry Fitzgerald's 11th-lowest Drop Percentage leading the way. While the debate rages between who is the best receiver between Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald clearly dominated the drop count for the second consecutive year. While Fitzgerald only dropped a staggering three percent of passes, Johnson found himself middle of the pack by dropping 8.18 percent. Texans fan won't be too disappointed with Johnson though (he still caught 101 balls) and will take solace in having resigned Kevin Walter -- who finished with the fourth-lowest Drop Percentage -- and retaining David Anderson (sixth-lowest).
And now mention to one of the more underrated performers and one of the more (unfairly) criticized receivers -- both of whom play for the New York Jets. Braylon Edwards had some drops that stuck in the mind and came to New York with a reputation for dropping the ball after a disastrous '08 season with the Browns, but it may shock some people that he only dropped four regular-season passes. This left him with a lower rating than Donald Driver, Marques Colston and ex-Jets receivers Santana Moss and Laveranues Coles. Edwards doesn't have the greatest hands, but it seems he was a victim of his rep (and of the highlight-reel plays taking over the body of his work). Teammate Jerricho Cotchery finds himself in a vastly different situation. Possibly one of the most underrated receivers in the league, Cotchery doesn't do a whole lot wrong and his Drop Percentage was unsurprisingly low at just 3.99 percent.
But for some people 3.99 percent is a figure to be laughed at, and so it would be unfair not to mention the trio of receivers who managed to not drop a single pass. We've already mentioned the reliable Camarillo, but give some credit to a guy who seemed like a bust not too long ago in Robert Meachem, who seems to have really turned things around for himself in New Orleans. The final member of this elite club of dropless receivers is Philadelphia Eagles slot receiver Jason Avant. Avant is the type of player you always expect to see on these lists -- he finished 2008 with a single drop and had none last season. He may not be an every-down receiver, but his work over the last two years show he may be the most sure-handed guy in the league.
Finishing things off, we'll take a look at the rookies and what they were able to produce. Darius Heyward-Bey didn't have enough catchable balls thrown his way to qualify (otherwise he would have had the highest Drop Percentage), but Raiders teammate Louis Murphy had the highest percentage for a rookie, dropping seven balls. On the other end of the scale, the Jaguars Mike Thomas dropped only one ball to end up with the fifth-lowest percentage, and for the most part the rest of the '09 rookie class performed admirably. Hakeem Nicks and Austin Collie ended up in the "bottom" 25 with two and three drops respectively, while the somewhat controversial Michael Crabtree finished with a below-average 9.34 Drop Percentage. All in all, the rookies didn't seem to have much trouble dealing with the most fundamental aspect of being a receiver -- catching a catchable ball.
Top 10 Drop Percentage
Name Team Catches Drops Drop %
Mark Bradley Kansas City Chiefs 24 8 25.00
James Jones Green Bay Packers 32 9 21.95
Ted Ginn Miami Dolphins 38 10 20.83
Bobby Wade Kansas City Chiefs 37 8 17.78
Justin Gage Tennesse Titans 28 6 17.65
Roy E. Williams Dallas Cowboys 38 8 17.39
Louis Murphy Oakland Raiders 34 7 17.07
Bryant Johnson Detroit Lions 36 7 16.28
Dwayne Bowe Kansas City Chiefs 47 9 16.07
Jacoby Jones Houston Texans 27 5 15.63
Bottom 10 Drop Percentage
Name Team Catches Drops Drop %
Greg Camarillo Miami Dolphins 50 0 0
Robert Meachem New Orleans Saints 45 0 0
Jason Avant Philadelphia Eagles 41 0 0
Kevin Walter Houston Texans 53 1 1.85
Mike Thomas Jacksonville Jaguars 48 1 2.04
David Anderson Houston Texans 38 1 2.56
Eddie Royal Denver Broncos 37 1 2.63
Chris Chambers Kansas City Chiefs 36 1 2.70
Vincent Jackson San Diego Chargers 68 2 2.86
Reggie Wayne Indianapolis Colts 100 3 2.91