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broncobryce
03-25-2010, 10:17 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/afcwest/post/_/id/11408/broncos-were-both-draft-kings-and-duds
By Bill Williamson

The Denver Broncos are examples of both the best and worst in the NFL at drafting during the 2000s, according to a study by Football Outsiders.

Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders created a system that he has labeled GSAA -- Games Started Above Average.

Here’s Barnwell’s formula: He compiled the games started by a player over the first five seasons of his career for everyone drafted between 1993 and 2007 . Games started by players taken in 2006 and 2007 have been prorated. Barnwell compared a player's total games started to the total of everyone at the same position taken within 10 picks of that player, or within the first 10 overall picks for players taken in the top 10.

That formula (yes, Barnwell is one deep thinker) allowed Barnwell to find out which teams have been the best and worst in the last decade at picking players. He will reveal his full findings in an upcoming issue of ESPN the Magazine.

That brings us back to the Broncos.

Mike Shanahan was both brilliant and a disaster in the 2000s, according to Barnwell’s study. He was gracious enough to give me a sneak preview of his findings.

Barnwell’s study concludes that the 2006 Denver draft class was the best in the decade. That draft netted Jay Cutler, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Marshall, Elvis Dumervil, Domenik Hixon and Chris Kuper. All have been become solid NFL players. Cutler is now in Chicago after being traded for Kyle Orton and a bevy of picks last year. Hixon is with the Giants after he was cut during his second season in Denver. Yes, the class is strong, but it would look a lot better heading into the future if Cutler and Hixon were still in Denver and Marshall wasn’t being shopped.

The great bounty of 2006 came three years after Denver had one of the worst drafts of the decade, according to Barnwell’s formula. Denver had the 20th and 51st picks in 2003, along with three fourth-round picks and two fifth-rounders. The draft netted one starter, George Foster, who was marginal at best after being the team’s first-round pick.

Shanahan had his ups and downs during the draft, but this disparity is shocking. Thanks again to Barnwell for allowing us to preview his impressive system.

broncobryce
03-25-2010, 10:18 PM
Dumervil and Marshall were both drafted in the fourth round. He certainly hit on those two. Hopefully Ayers and Mckinley blossom next year.

atwater27
03-25-2010, 10:43 PM
Obviously, Denver's head coach,scouting department, and draft gurus were on fire in the drafting department before they were uncerimoniously fired. Go figure.

Iron Horse72
03-26-2010, 12:15 AM
I hope Ayers steps up this season, Marshall and Doom were 4th rounders I think.

Those were both good picks.

Lonestar
03-26-2010, 07:53 AM
One good year doth not make mike a guru.

I consider rating someone a draft king when you actually look at the team that drafted a player and see if he is there at the end of their rookie contract and resigned. Which after last year was ONE player DJ. Before that it was Price and Wilson.

Might be a couple more but that is about it first day choices.


Sent from my BlackBerry Smartphone provided by Alltel

claymore
03-26-2010, 07:57 AM
Mikes Drafts looked alot better once Sundquist was fired. People give Mike to much credit. He wasnt doing the scouting. He had to rely on his FO.

SOCALORADO.
03-26-2010, 08:05 AM
Mikes Drafts looked alot better once Sundquist was fired. People give Mike to much credit. He wasnt doing the scouting. He had to rely on his FO.

Yes. I think he also realized that he had a poor track record and really started making the drafting of players a higher priority than before.
Willie Middlebrooks. I mean, jeez this name alone will shut just about any mouth up when discussing Shanny draft misses. I think alot of these misses were more Sunquist fault than we have any idea., but they are laid at the feet of Shanny, who still was the final say too.
Dont even get me started with wide recievers...

claymore
03-26-2010, 08:14 AM
Yes. I think he also realized that he had a poor track record and really started making the drafting of players a higher priority than before.
Willie Middlebrooks. I mean, jeez this name alone will shut just about any mouth up when discussing Shanny draft misses. I think alot of these misses were more Sunquist fault than we have any idea., but they are laid at the feet of Shanny, who still was the final say too.
Dont even get me started with wide recievers...

Shanny was loyal to a fault. Sundquist grew with the organization, and was kept long after he should have been fired.

Im not ever going to blame the HC for a draft pick like Ayers or Moreno or Moss not working out. I blame the FO. The Scouts.

I will blame a HC for making or allowing stupid ass trades like Quinn, Smith etc... No forgiveness for taking less value in a trade right off the bat.

Dreadnought
03-26-2010, 08:20 AM
Yes. I think he also realized that he had a poor track record and really started making the drafting of players a higher priority than before.
Willie Middlebrooks. I mean, jeez this name alone will shut just about any mouth up when discussing Shanny draft misses. I think alot of these misses were more Sunquist fault than we have any idea., but they are laid at the feet of Shanny, who still was the final say too.
Dont even get me started with wide recievers...

I was hoping to someday forget that name - then you went and reminded me. Thanks for nuthin' :lol:

We had some true dogs in the Sundquist era, no question about it. OTOH, I don't think we've had as exciting a draft as 2006, ever. That was a fun time to be a Bronco fan, no doubt.

claymore
03-26-2010, 08:33 AM
I was hoping to someday forget that name - then you went and reminded me. Thanks for nuthin' :lol:

We had some true dogs in the Sundquist era, no question about it. OTOH, I don't think we've had as exciting a draft as 2006, ever. That was a fun time to be a Bronco fan, no doubt.

One of the best days of my life.

Dreadnought
03-26-2010, 08:36 AM
One of the best days of my life.

One of my best was watching us beat the Browns with a late comeback on a Thursday night in '08. Watched it with some pretty cool guys too :beer:

Drank a good bit though...

claymore
03-26-2010, 08:43 AM
One of my best was watching us beat the Browns with a late comeback on a Thursday night in '08. Watched it with some pretty cool guys too :beer:

Drank a good bit though...

That was a good night. I cant believe how well I slept in the New orleans Parking lot!!!

rationalfan
03-26-2010, 10:10 AM
regarding shanny's drafts: it seemed the organization's drafting had two philosophies during his tenure. one was to pick for need. the other was to pick for the best player available. when the team picked for need (moss, middlebrooks, foster, nash, toviessi, the darrent williams class, etc.) it failed. when it stuck to the draft board, it succeeded.

NightTrainLayne
03-26-2010, 10:24 AM
Mikes Drafts looked alot better once Sundquist was fired.

This is the second or third time I've seen you make this statement, and I can't figure out how you square it with the information above.

Sundquist left after the 2007 season was over, and here everyone is celebrating how great the 2006 draft was two seasons worth of football before he left.

LordTrychon
03-26-2010, 10:35 AM
I wonder if any other team has ever suffered from having both good drafts and bad drafts. *sigh*

NightTrainLayne
03-26-2010, 10:39 AM
I wonder if any other team has ever suffered from having both good drafts and bad drafts. *sigh*

That would be an interesting study to do LT. I wonder what the results would be. ..

T.K.O.
03-26-2010, 10:43 AM
we did'nt trade up to grab russell....all else can be forgiven;)
i think coaches are ALL given to much blame for (and/or credit) for the draft.
they are fed info by numerous scouts and they have no control over teams that snag players ahead of them and often have to make quick decisions.
on top of all that,its a crap shoot to begin with.there is really no way to know if a player will make the transition to the nfl successfully.
its like mcD said at the owners meeting "brian and his crew have done some really good things getting players etc... so far"
the head coach in many cases is too busy to spend alot of time looking at players,he leaves it up to others then has input on who they get from that limited group presented to him.
it just comes with the territory as HC you get the praise or the blame regardless of how much you had to do with the actual signing.

claymore
03-26-2010, 10:55 AM
This is the second or third time I've seen you make this statement, and I can't figure out how you square it with the information above.

Sundquist left after the 2007 season was over, and here everyone is celebrating how great the 2006 draft was two seasons worth of football before he left.I dont think Sundquist had anything to do with the 2006 Draft.

If he did, I dont think he would have been fired in 2007.

Kaylore
03-26-2010, 10:59 AM
Obviously, Denver's head coach,scouting department, and draft gurus were on fire in the drafting department before they were uncerimoniously fired. Go figure.

Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder, and our stoner DT from Florida disagree.

Ravage!!!
03-26-2010, 11:00 AM
I think the Goodmans were what got our drafting back on track and headed in the right direction.

Kaylore
03-26-2010, 11:00 AM
I dont think Sundquist had anything to do with the 2006 Draft.

If he did, I dont think he would have been fired in 2007.

You're right. Most of that draft was the Goodmans. Sundquist had a heavy hand in the free agent signings, though. He was apparently behind the Browncos fiasco among other high priced busts.

LordTrychon
03-26-2010, 11:04 AM
I think the Goodmans were what got our drafting back on track and headed in the right direction.

Oh YEAH!? :fight:

Why were THEY fired then? :fight:

:laugh:

claymore
03-26-2010, 11:05 AM
You're right. Most of that draft was the Goodmans. Sundquist had a heavy hand in the free agent signings, though. He was apparently behind the Browncos fiasco among other high priced busts.

Sundquist was really good at money and negotiating in trades etc... But IMO was terrible when it came to talent evaluation and the draft. FA was pretty terrible as well.

claymore
03-26-2010, 11:06 AM
Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder, and our stoner DT from Florida disagree.

I think that goes back to drafting for need. We are terrible when it comes to drafting for need.

underrated29
03-26-2010, 11:49 AM
You're right. Most of that draft was the Goodmans. Sundquist had a heavy hand in the free agent signings, though. He was apparently behind the Browncos fiasco among other high priced busts.



Everybody says the browncos was a fiasco, but i still dont see it... That year, the year we got the browncos, we applied tons of pressure on the QB. Stopped the run like a top 5 run defense team. Champ had like 13 int. and we went to the afcc game.

during that time we werent a high powered offense. We were a ball control, kill the clock offense and let our defense do the rest. We have not had a season like that since. I would say that the browncos in its own right was rather successful.

yardog
03-26-2010, 12:24 PM
One of my best was watching us beat the Browns with a late comeback on a Thursday night in '08. Watched it with some pretty cool guys too :beer:

Drank a good bit though...

Wow 2008 it sure don't seem like its been that long I must be getting old because time is flying. :tsk:

Dreadnought
03-26-2010, 12:28 PM
Everybody says the browncos was a fiasco, but i still dont see it... That year, the year we got the browncos, we applied tons of pressure on the QB. Stopped the run like a top 5 run defense team. Champ had like 13 int. and we went to the afcc game.

during that time we werent a high powered offense. We were a ball control, kill the clock offense and let our defense do the rest. We have not had a season like that since. I would say that the browncos in its own right was rather successful.

I agree. I mostly liked the Browncos, and they did a pretty workmanlike job for us. Courtney Brown was a bit of a disappointment, but Warren and Myers were pretty good. Better'n what we've seen at DT the past few years at any rate

Bosco
03-26-2010, 01:00 PM
Obviously, Denver's head coach,scouting department, and draft gurus were on fire in the drafting department before they were uncerimoniously fired. Go figure.

The Goodmans were the only ones let go. To the best of my recollection, the rest of the scouting department was left untouched.


Oh YEAH!? :fight:

Why were THEY fired then? :fight:

:laugh:

Jeff Goodman - Fired because him and Xanders did not get along.

Jim Goodman - Bowlen made the classy decision to fire him so he wouldn't be forced to choose between loyalty to his son and his salary.

NightTrainLayne
03-26-2010, 01:47 PM
I dont think Sundquist had anything to do with the 2006 Draft.

If he did, I dont think he would have been fired in 2007.

Okay. I'm not advocating on behalf of Sundquist, but it's just odd that, kinda like Shanny, folks are pretty selective when they credit blame or praise to him. You said that the drafts improved after Sundquist left, but he in fact didnt' leave until after the '07 season.

Lonestar
03-26-2010, 02:05 PM
Ted was a gofer only he had zero power and fetched players for mike, there is not correlation between ted leaving and good drafts.

As far I know MOST all the scouting team is gone from teh old days I seem to rememebr a burb saying something like thaqt jsut after the last draft. But could be wrong about that.

Goodmans were in a power struggle with Xman and Josh sided with Xman.

Ravage!!!
03-26-2010, 03:19 PM
Ted was a gofer only he had zero power and fetched players for mike, there is not correlation between ted leaving and good drafts.

As far I know MOST all the scouting team is gone from teh old days I seem to rememebr a burb saying something like thaqt jsut after the last draft. But could be wrong about that.

Goodmans were in a power struggle with Xman and Josh sided with Xman.

X wouldn't have been hired at all if McD didn't already plan on letting the Goodmans go.

Lonestar
03-26-2010, 03:35 PM
X wouldn't have been hired at all if McD didn't already plan on letting the Goodmans go.

pretty sure he was already here before Josh came but could be wrong.

thought he came from ATL a couple of years ago brought in by Mike as a capoligist and a budding star in teh front office.

Bosco
03-26-2010, 03:40 PM
X wouldn't have been hired at all if McD didn't already plan on letting the Goodmans go.

Huh? Xanders was added to the staff almost a full year before McD was hired. In fact, Xanders was part of the group that interviewed McDaniels.

Denver Native (Carol)
03-26-2010, 05:16 PM
Huh? Xanders was added to the staff almost a full year before McD was hired. In fact, Xanders was part of the group that interviewed McDaniels.

:welcome: to Broncos Forums Bosco

And you are correct - it was Shanahan who hired Xanders

http://www.zoominfo.com/people/Xanders_Brian_13096019.aspx

Shanahan hired Xanders last year to assist the Goodmans in the front office following the firing of GM Ted Sundquist.