Thoughts from across the pound. Our fab five in the draft.LOONG

[haroldthebarrel]

This is a very long post. I have spent some time researching this so I wanted to bring most of my thoughts in the analysis in order for it being more complete. By doing so it should also be easier to spot errors in reasoning to all those who take the time to read this.

The intent of this post is to give my analysis to whom will be our “fab five” in the first round during the draft. I will begin by giving a brief overview of who has been that since 2002. All of this is off memory so I could be wrong.
2002: Levi Jones, Ashley Lelie, Javon Walker and Ed Reed were definitely on our radar. The team would have taken Walker had Lelie not been there. There were rumors that we were looking at Freeney, Buchanon and Stallworth as well. The Raiders traded up for Buchanon to keep us away.
2003. This was the infamous draft were we had a tentative deal with the Ravens to trade down and at the last minute they traded up with the Patriots. The idiots kept the Patriots with more talent that time. We were looking at Polamalu, K. Harris, G. Foster, T. Pierce and M. Doss. Man what could have been if we traded down.
Analysis: All except Pierce were needs but the draft was weak and it bugged the team enough with the trade down so that the relationship with the Ravens are still sour to this day.

2004: players mentioned by Sunquist in an interview later were; R. Williams, M. Clayton , T. Harris and DJ Williams. No fab five this time, and the rumors were that the team was looking at M. Williams.
Analysis: The team really wanted receivers in this draft and tried to trade up for Clayton. Yours truly was screaming for Harris in this draft and has never really forgiven the team for loosing that opportunity.:)
2005. Trade down with the Redskins. Players rumored to be on our fab five list were Rolle, Rogers and Matt Jones. I am unsure of this but I am certain I read somewhere by Sundquist that the team was looking somewhat at Matt Jones.
Analysis: The team went into the draft with every intent on getting a cornerback. Luckily this was one of the better corner drafts in recent years. It was also a stroke of genious to trade down and get the late Darrent Williams who many said was the best cover had he not been small.
We also begin to see a trend with need. We also seem to have a very strong wish for receivers. We also look at tall receivers that are over 6’2’’.

2006. The trade up for Cutler. The team never gave out information whether Cutler was the top qb on our board. There were no fab five released but the team was heavily involved in trading up rumors for V. Davis, R. Bush and if memory serves me well Mario Williams. I think I recall Sundquist or Shanahan saying they would have taken Whitner had they not been able to get a quarterback though he was taken early(and many called him a reach) by the Bills. By the way I wanted Young in this draft.)

[haroldthebarrel]

Continued.

Analysis: This draft was different in many ways. We didn’t have a quarterback need, yet Shanahan took Cutler. It is of interest to note that rumors had it we were looking at both Maurice Jones-Drew and Devin Hester in the second. A great overall draft and a great draft to us. This was also the draft I was most pleased with at the time, though I wanted Mark Anderson at the second round pick and on. But Scheffler has been a potential stud so it’s all good.)

2007 had rumors we were looking at a trade up for Calvin Johnson and P. Willis. There were also some small rumors we wanted Okoye and had a trade up deal with the Texans but they wanted Okoye. Or was it we wanted Willis and they wouldn’t risk loosing Okoye? In any way, we were looking at Timmons, Harrell and Moss. There were also rumors of Ted Ginn Jr. so we might as well add him to the list. The trade up for Moss was controversial but he was the last one on the board as well as the team didn’t think they had many needs at the time. The Bengals coach Lewis loved Moss and decided against due to character issues. We didn’t know that , thus the trade up was done.

Analysis: loosing Wilson meant a need for linebackers and he was nabbed by the Steelers. Who seems to know linebackers just as we know running backs. Both Moss and Harrell were need positions as well.
It is also an interesting conjecture with Shanahan here. He seems to give every new coordinators a choice either in free agency or in the drafts first day.

THIS DRAFT:
We seem to always look for need in the first round. Cutler is the lone exception. In analyzing our need areas we find offensive tackle, defensive tackle, wide receiver and middle linebacker as primary needs. Secondary needs are safety, running back and returner.
The two tackle positions stick more out than the others so we’ll begin examining that position first.

There is only two tackles that stick out in this draft in Dorsey and Ellis. I doubt either of them are there when we draft, but I am certain Dorsey won’t be. Ellis thus might have an outside shot to get there but I can’t see him past both the Saints and the Bengals. We might trade up but I doubt it. There is way too much value from pick 10 to about pick 70. In my opinion of course.
There is also a great crop of talent at the offensive tackle position where mentioned names are Chris Williams and Ryan Clady.

If I recall correctly Clady played in a zone blocking scheme at Boise State. He also had a wonderlich of 13 which pr his page at Wikipedia translates to an IQ of 86. In my opinion he has to have some learning difficulties because his page at nfl.com states the following: “Intelligent player with good vision, but he has had a few mental lapses on the field that have produced costly penalties”. He also excelled at a zone blocking scheme. Perhaps he is like Jason Kidd in that he is a very intelligent ball player but very poor at academics? Still, Williams appear to be the better target with also a great upside. He reminds me of Levi Jones coming out of college, and he was at our fab five list as well.

[haroldthebarrel]

Continued.

The myth that we don’t take offensive linemen in the first round should be dispelled as we have already had three tackles in our fab five list. Levi Jones was also there before Sundquist got the position of general manager. I might be wrong on that one since it says on Wikipedia he got the position in 2002 but wasn’t it after the draft? Anyway, I think both Williams and Clady are at our fab five list.

An exclamation mark should be given to Branden Albert who projects as a super guard but maybe also a tackle. I could see us taking him to some extent but not at 12. I think the former two are better tackle prospects and there is a dire need for pass protection and Alberts file at nfl.com mention he gave up 5.5 sacks last year as a junior with two games played at left tackle.

The crop of receivers are ample. Malcolm Kelly, DeSean Jackson, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Limas Sweed, Early Doucet, Mario Manningham, Earl Bennett and Jordy Nelson who all but Desean Jackson fall into our cathegory of big physical receivers with speed. We need the ones who can block thus I added both Doucet and Bennett. Andre Caldwell has the Florida connection as well and Desean Jackson fills out the return game.
I can see us targeting any of the first four receivers though it would make sense to trade down if none of the tackles are present. The receiver with the most rumors surrounding him is Jackson but I just can’t see us taking him at 12. Kelly has injury concerns but he is also a willing and good blocker. Hardy isn’t known as a blocker though he has the frame to be so but the concerning part is that he is not a willing blocker. Nfl.com says this of Thomas: “Effective cut blocker, but does not play up to his size and strength when blocking in-line (needs to sustain and finish better)”. He is also a returner but he has never scored a touchdown in his NCAA career.

With Kellys injury concerns and Marshall down for some time it seems way too risky to opt out at him. It makes more sense to trade down not only because there is a good chance at least two of these are present ten picks later, but there is also a great crop of cornerbacks with Lions, Cardinals, Texans, Cowboys, Titans and maybe Buccaneers needing cornerbacks.(Cover 2 Bucs usually don’t need the top tier corners though). Going down the order we find that the usual suspects looking at receivers are Panthers, Eagles, Bears, Bucs and Cowboys with only the Titans in dire straits for a receiver.

At linebacker only Connor and Mayo fits the bill as far as they both are athletic, smart and can cover to some extent. Just like the other linebackers we have looked at in the past. Both are expected to be there past pick 20. I can easily see us really liking especially Connor knowing how good Pozlovsny(sp) was last year and that he might be an eve n better prospect. With Mayo not far behind. Again, just as with the receivers we might as well trade down to grab one of them.

There is a twist here though. Shanahan might be giving out false information about Dj Williams moving back to weakside linebacker. Uscs Keith Rivers appears to be the type of linebacker Shanahan really loves. I doubt he will be there as he is in my opinion a top ten pick and even if Ellis falls as mentioned to either the Saints or Bungles he wont get past that. And if he does it gives us more ammo to trade down.

I will only mention briefly about running backs and safeties in this column. It has gotten long enough as it is. I doubt we will take McFadden even if he falls to us as we will rather trade down as Kevin Smith, Ray Rice and Thomas Brown looks like our typical running back prospects. As far as safety, I cant really see

[haroldthebarrel]

Continued.

us taking Kenny Phillips and the safety crop is poor and Dejuan Morgan isn’t nearly the prospect that either Polamalu and Whitner was.

Conclusion: I find only three players that should be there definitely at our fab five. Those are Ellis, Williams and Clady. I think we will look hard at receivers with Kelly, Thomas and Hardy as the usual suspects. For some reason I just can’t see us taking Jackson as a receiver at pick 12. Unless Harvey, Gholston and Chris Long are there, the Buffalo Bills will take one of Kelly or Thomas. The chances and opportunities to trade down has never been so big as now and I think that is our main priority. Only players who will make that moot are Sedrick Ellis. We will listen to offers even if Clady and Williams are present. I sincerely doubt we will trade up.

Now, I have taken a big gamble here with my football credibility I think.
But as I have always said, I have more respect for someone who says something new and are wrong, than those who only regurgitates what most people say in order to eliminate the fear of being wrong.


And now….. I am way to tired to write a single sentence more:)

[lex]

Sundquist isnt here anymore and its hard to know how much he influenced our "fab fives" over the years. Our MO may completely change with him out of the fold. Thats a huge wild card.

Another thing, youre looking at what has been targeted by position, when you might be able to look at players by region. It seems in the past couple of years we've targeted more heavily players from the southeast, which coincidentally (or maybe not so coincidentally) was Goodmans (our new personnel guy) region.

I enjoyed reading that. You obviously put some effort into it. But choosing the time period for comparison is problematic. We dont know when Shanahan started relying more heavily on Goodman.

[BroncoJoe]

You're right, HTB. That was a long post.

[haroldthebarrel]

Sundquist isnt here anymore and its hard to know how much he influenced our "fab fives" over the years. Our MO may completely change with him out of the fold. Thats a huge wild card.

Another thing, youre looking at what has been targeted by position, when you might be able to look at players by region. It seems in the past couple of years we've targeted more heavily players from the southeast, which coincidentally (or maybe not so coincidentally) was Goodmans (our new personnel guy) region.

I enjoyed reading that. You obviously put some effort into it. But choosing the time period for comparison is problematic. We dont know when Shanahan started relying more heavily on Goodman.

I had heard of that by region thing. I didnt include that because I dont know much about it, and I was tired of writing.
I dont think the position of need will change much. Only one time was that ever present and that was with Cutler. Looking at the drafts before 2002 when Sundquist began seems to verify that.

The thing is though. I wanted to stick my neck out there and say something new and different. I might be completely wrong, but I dont have a problem with that.

I have one thought about the Sundquist firing. I have read several places that he did pride himself on finding talent in the trenches. But we have sucked doing that in his time span. Surprisingly we did a lot better before him.... so the conjecture is there.

[haroldthebarrel]

You're right, HTB. That was a long post.

Thats why I did mark it LOOONG so that people can just skip it before starting to read. :)

[lex]

I had heard of that by region thing. I didnt include that because I dont know much about it, and I was tired of writing.
I dont think the position of need will change much. Only one time was that ever present and that was with Cutler. Looking at the drafts before 2002 when Sundquist began seems to verify that.

The thing is though. I wanted to stick my neck out there and say something new and different. I might be completely wrong, but I dont have a problem with that.

I have one thought about the Sundquist firing. I have read several places that he did pride himself on finding talent in the trenches. But we have sucked doing that in his time span. Surprisingly we did a lot better before him.... so the conjecture is there.

Well lets say Shanahan has started relying on Goodman more heavily for input starting in 2006, that would mean the relevant range is 2 years. And in that time both of our 1st round picks played in the southeast but only 1 of the 2 was a position of need. Also consider that Dumervil, Marshall, Moss, and Cutler all played in the southeast.

[dogfish]

i admit that i skimmed some of the discussion about past drafts, but you definitely make some good points. . .


IMO, add stewart and mendenhall to the three OLs and call it a day. . . . :elefant:

[Scarface]

Continued.

us taking Kenny Phillips and the safety crop is poor and Dejuan Morgan isn’t nearly the prospect that either Polamalu and Whitner was.

Conclusion: I find only three players that should be there definitely at our fab five. Those are Ellis, Williams and Clady. I think we will look hard at receivers with Kelly, Thomas and Hardy as the usual suspects. For some reason I just can’t see us taking Jackson as a receiver at pick 12. Unless Harvey, Gholston and Chris Long are there, the Buffalo Bills will take one of Kelly or Thomas. The chances and opportunities to trade down has never been so big as now and I think that is our main priority. Only players who will make that moot are Sedrick Ellis. We will listen to offers even if Clady and Williams are present. I sincerely doubt we will trade up.

Now, I have taken a big gamble here with my football credibility I think.
But as I have always said, I have more respect for someone who says something new and are wrong, than those who only regurgitates what most people say in order to eliminate the fear of being wrong.


And now….. I am way to tired to write a single sentence more:)

I don't think you're sticking your neck out there at all. I think Ellis will be gone but Clady and Williams have been penciled in for us at 12 on many mock drafts. I honestly think we'll end up with one of the following if we stay at #12 Albert/Williams/Clady/Mendenhall/Stewart. It's all going to depend on how the first 11 picks shake out and if Shanny wants an OT or a RB. Good post, Harold. You need to come around more often!

[atwater27]

Couldn't agree more harold.... I really really really hope we trade down. 12 is no man's land in this draft. Especially when we are mising a 3rd rounder. We can get more value at the 20-32 range in the 1st round than at 12. If we do stay at 12 though, a tackle is a no brainer. I still don't think we need a running back. But Stewart could be a steal if he slips to late 1st or early second.

[haroldthebarrel]

I am thankful for all the respons. I guessed very few would take the time to read such a long post.

To Scarface:
What I meant by sticking out my neck is that in my opinion too many draftexperts and others just wait until the rumors fill out when they make their mock drafts.
I dont do that and thus risk being wrong more than that, although common sense dictates that we will look at DT and OT.

The other point I'd like to maintain is that when revising drafts people look immidiately after the draft how many picks they guessed correctly.
However, when they do the same three years later they revise the draft through how good the players became.
Those are two different things.
In my opinion, more draft experts should stick their neck out there and argue the players that will succeed more than the players they think should go where.
Buchsbaum was great at that. Nowadays, many guys just let their contacts in pro clubs dictate their view and place of players. Very few really dares to make their own opinion of players because they are afraid of being wrong.
To me, being wrong is good. It makes you better if you let it. It is easy to make arguments that are never really wrong(ad hoc arguments), but more radical arguments actually are what makes the (microfootball) world get better.