You want to trade down eh?

[lex]

OK, lets stop being vague about this and stop just mindlessly parroting the phrase "trade down". Lets invoke some question words. Who would want to trady up with us? Why would they want to trade up with us? How would the trade work...what would make sense to both them and us? Lets break this down. Who's first with a "trade down" candidate?

[dogfish]

i agree completely-- i like the idea as much as the next guy, but people around here always say "trade down" as though it's just as easy as snapping your fingers. . . they say things like "there's no value at 12, we need to trade down"-- well, if there's no value there, then why the hell would anyone else want to trade up to that spot? :noidea: :confused:


i know. . . we'll just take out an ad on craigslist, or sell the pick on ebay. . .


i think derrick harvey, if he's still there (which i'm starting to doubt), might be the most likely target-- especially after everyone saw what the G-men did to the pansies. . . otherwise, a lot of people are projecting guys like stewart, mendenhall and clady as the best value picks in that range. . . but are people really going to trade up for those guys in a draft that runs three rounds deep with quality prospects at both positions? doesn't seem all that incredibly likely to me. . . trading down has become the new sexy thing to do, but just like actual sex, you can't do it without a partner. . . .

[broncohead]

There isn't any value at 12 for us. We have different needs than other teams so trading down to pick a position of need is sexy.

[Fan in Exile]

This is a question best left to draft day. Someone is going to slide it happens every year and a team will get obsessed with them and may be willing to offer a trade. However until draft day few teams are going to be willing to trade up because they don't know if their guy will be there. So for right now we just say trade down because we don't and can't know who the partner might be.

At the same time teams will also do some pretty crazy things that we could never predict.

You have to understand that trading down is like any other pre-draft idea. It's just a part of the board people are putting together in their own mind. People see this as the best of the realistic possibilities. So they are calling for a trade down. Just like other people see Clady as the best of the realistic possibilities so they are calling for him even though he could be gone by then.

Basically what I'm saying is that we aren't, "mindlessly parroting the phrase." We just want Shanahan to pick up the phone if it rings instead picking the BPA that we don't need.

[CoachChaz]

It takes alot to trade down. Findind a trade partner that has exactly what you want in a trade and also has a need for the talent avaialable at #12 and a concern that he won't be there when they pick. Not easy.

[eessydo]

I can name four possibles, would have to do some research on overall viability:

Tampa Bay
Detroit
Seattle

Dallas *always a contender (pending marion barber/ j jones turnout)


all are looking for a top tiered RB and may feel some pressure to move up and get one, especially seattle.

[CoachChaz]

I can name four possibles, would have to do some research on overall viability:

Tampa Bay
Detroit
Seattle

Dallas *always a contender (pending marion barber/ j jones turnout)


all are looking for a top tiered RB and may feel some pressure to move up and get one, especially seattle.

Why trade up? After McFadden, you still have Jones, Stewart and Mendenhall as first rounders. They all won't go in the Top 20.

[eessydo]

Why trade up? After McFadden, you still have Jones, Stewart and Mendenhall as first rounders. They all won't go in the Top 20.

Well that is easy enough to rebut, it all depends on who they want and perceived value. Plenty of reasons to stay put, plenty of reasons to move up depending on how the wind is blowing in the draft room of each team.

If they think a guy is special, like we did with Cutler, teams will make moves.

Seattle is especially interesting for one reason:

1. Alexander is done

[CoachChaz]

Well that is easy enough to rebut, it all depends on who they want and perceived value. Plenty of reasons to stay put, plenty of reasons to move up depending on how the wind is blowing in the draft room of each team.

If they think a guy is special, like we did with Cutler, teams will make moves.

Seattle is especially interesting for one reason:

1. Alexander is done

I definately expect them to be very interested in local boy Stewart

[eessydo]

Four other candidates include:

Minnesota
Tennessee
Jacksonville
San Francisco.

All are in serious need of a WR, and we are looking to move JWalker. Who is a legitimate #1 when healthy (and happy). WR are the biggest crapshoot out in the draft so a team might feel they are taking less risk on Walker's knee than a new guy in the 1rst.

Again must research all on viability.

[lex]

Four other candidates include:

Minnesota
Tennessee
Jacksonville
San Francisco.

All are in serious need of a WR, and we are looking to move JWalker. Who is a legitimate #1 when healthy (and happy). WR are the biggest crapshoot out in the draft so a team might feel they are taking less risk on Walker's knee than a new guy in the 1rst.

Again must research all on viability.

Ive actually acknowledged the SF scenario in my mock. Wed be giving up 50 points and along with that would also likely have to throw in Walker...but thats assuming any of these teams want Walker.

BTW, thanks for chiming in with some substantive thought that is at least semi-lucid. Like you said, I think you need to drill into these ideas some more but youve at least provided a somewhat credible starting point.

[BOSSHOGG30]

Barring a huge upset, the Texans will use their first round pick on a running back.

Landing a cornerback in free agency would afford the team the opportunity to go running back with the 18th pick. The Houston Chronicle expects Darren McFadden and Rashard Mendenhall to be off the board, but Jonathan Stewart and Felix Jones are possibilities. Stewart's running style would be ideal for Kubiak's zone running offense.
Source: Houston Chronicle


Maybe Houston will trade down?

[turftoad]

This is rediculous.
Every team could trade up with us depending on how they view a player with what thier needs are.

[eessydo]

This is rediculous.
Every team could trade up with us depending on how they view a player with what thier needs are.

I don't think this is ridiculous at all. Lex is trying to get an intelligent conversation going on what possible scenarios would Denver be looking at for possible trade ups/downs.

For an organization not to have a plan and evaluate who would be the best candidates for possible moves in the draft would be MORE ridiculous.

The question to me is if you had to figure out who you would pick the phone and call tomorrow, who is the first team you would call and what kind of deal would you expect to see to create an amicable trade scenario.

Of course anything is possible, but you can't rely on other teams to call you or you will never get anything done.

[eessydo]

Ive actually acknowledged the SF scenario in my mock. Wed be giving up 50 points and along with that would also likely have to throw in Walker...but thats assuming any of these teams want Walker.

BTW, thanks for chiming in with some substantive thought that is at least semi-lucid. Like you said, I think you need to drill into these ideas some more but youve at least provided a somewhat credible starting point.

Your welcome, and I did notice that.

I think if I had to rank from top to bottom, the most likely people I would call first due to position in the draft and need I would rank them as follows

1. Seattle: sitting in the LAST position of teams with a serious RB problem. McFadden goes to a team without a serious need, then might see a run that may includes Carolina (13), Houston (18), Tampa Bay (20), Dallas (22) (if they don't move up for McFadden)

That makes them the odd man out and looking at Jamaal Charles or waiting for a later round. If they move up to 12 they bypass all of those teams and get what they so desperately need in a strong RB class.

2. Jacksonville: Traded today for Williamson, but he has been a bust. Still need a real threat and J. Walker could be that guy. That gives them some flexibility to draft an OT at 12, especially if Clady is still on the board OR one of the DE's. Plus the broncos move into 26 instead of the SF 29.

3. San Francisco: Needs a WR pretty bad, DE could be addressed @ 12 for them. Unfortunately other needs seem to be floating around Center and Guard posiiton which no one picks up with the 12 pick.

4. Tennessee: They need to find out if Vince has what it takes to be a top notch QB. Go get J Walker for him and see what happens. Then address the DE or DT at 12. Broncos move into the 24 slot where we can stipp pick up a decent OT or Kentwan (super slow at the combine) Balmer at a spot equal to their value.

5. Minnesota: Pick up a WR with walker, then move to get Kenny Phillips for FS or a DE. We move down 5 slots.

6. Tampa Bay: Gruden may be able to stay @ his slot and pick up a one cut runner / bruiser so does not have much incentive to move. Though he has been know to get a gleem in his eye about specific players.

7. Detroit: Needs an RB, but probably does not need to move to get value at 15


8. Dallas: They always like to play in the move up / move down sweepstakes so they are worth a call. I just think they have their eye on a bigger prize named McFadden.

(again does not include actual deal scenario, I am ranking them on who I think would be most likely just to talk trade. Actual detail planning would be the next step.)

[turftoad]

I don't think this is ridiculous at all. Lex is trying to get an intelligent conversation going on what possible scenarios would Denver be looking at for possible trade ups/downs.

For an organization not to have a plan and evaluate who would be the best candidates for possible moves in the draft would be MORE ridiculous.

The question to me is if you had to figure out who you would pick the phone and call tomorrow, who is the first team you would call and what kind of deal would you expect to see to create an amicable trade scenario.

Of course anything is possible, but you can't rely on other teams to call you or you will never get anything done.

And.................. I'm pretty sure the Broncos brass is reading this thread. Knock yourselves out though. Have fun.

[fcspikeit]

OK, lets stop being vague about this and stop just mindlessly parroting the phrase "trade down". Lets invoke some question words. Who would want to trady up with us? Why would they want to trade up with us? How would the trade work...what would make sense to both them and us? Lets break this down. Who's first with a "trade down" candidate?


We don't even know who will be there when we pick at 12, so how could we possibly know who would want to trade?

What if D mac fell to 12. How many team do you think would be calling us?

For instance, if the Buccaneers at 20 want to move up and trade with us to take someone at 12 like D Mac and Carolina at 13 wants him, they will offer us a better deal then normal just to move one spot and Block the Bucs.

That is the thing, all the teams can look at the board and try and predict what the teams in front of them will do. But from the sounds of it most everyone in the top 10 wants to move back. So there will be some moving around in the picking order. A team might now feel, the new team that is now picking in front of them might take their guy. They then will have to either try and move up ahead of that team, pick someone else or try and move back. It really all depends on how their board is set up and their value of each guy on their list.


One thing is for sure, there will be teams moving up and back in the draft on draft day... By saying we should look to move back if so and so is gone when we pick is not taking the easy way out. It just means, looking over our team needs, we don't feel there is enough value at the positions of our need. Other teams have different positions of need, therefore they might see the value and want to get ahead of someone else to get the guy they want.

[mclark]

Your welcome, and I did notice that.

I think if I had to rank from top to bottom, the most likely people I would call first due to position in the draft and need I would rank them as follows

1. Seattle: sitting in the LAST position of teams with a serious RB problem. McFadden goes to a team without a serious need, then might see a run that may includes Carolina (13), Houston (18), Tampa Bay (20), Dallas (22) (if they don't move up for McFadden)

That makes them the odd man out and looking at Jamaal Charles or waiting for a later round. If they move up to 12 they bypass all of those teams and get what they so desperately need in a strong RB class.

2. Jacksonville: Traded today for Williamson, but he has been a bust. Still need a real threat and J. Walker could be that guy. That gives them some flexibility to draft an OT at 12, especially if Clady is still on the board OR one of the DE's. Plus the broncos move into 26 instead of the SF 29.

3. San Francisco: Needs a WR pretty bad, DE could be addressed @ 12 for them. Unfortunately other needs seem to be floating around Center and Guard posiiton which no one picks up with the 12 pick.

4. Tennessee: They need to find out if Vince has what it takes to be a top notch QB. Go get J Walker for him and see what happens. Then address the DE or DT at 12. Broncos move into the 24 slot where we can stipp pick up a decent OT or Kentwan (super slow at the combine) Balmer at a spot equal to their value.

5. Minnesota: Pick up a WR with walker, then move to get Kenny Phillips for FS or a DE. We move down 5 slots.

6. Tampa Bay: Gruden may be able to stay @ his slot and pick up a one cut runner / bruiser so does not have much incentive to move. Though he has been know to get a gleem in his eye about specific players.

7. Detroit: Needs an RB, but probably does not need to move to get value at 15


8. Dallas: They always like to play in the move up / move down sweepstakes so they are worth a call. I just think they have their eye on a bigger prize named McFadden.

(again does not include actual deal scenario, I am ranking them on who I think would be most likely just to talk trade. Actual detail planning would be the next step.)

I think you've done here everything that was asked of you.

[shank]

Why trade up? After McFadden, you still have Jones, Stewart and Mendenhall as first rounders. They all won't go in the Top 20.

why did we trade up for moss when spencer was sitting right behind him with comparable value?

some times teams just identify a player as 'their guy' and they do what's necessary to get him.

i can understand wanting to plan scenarios, but until draft day we won't know if any of them work. EVERYTHING is speculation, whether it's specific or not until april 29 (i think).

i don't get why a guy who wants to trade down is making a thread criticizing those who want to trade down. there could be 50 different scenarios that result in us trading down, and there can be 50 more that leave us at 12, either getting a guy we like or being stuck there with no player that fits the value.

i don't see why you have to analyze all 32 teams, draft order, needs, draft history, management, and coaching, bust out the draft value chart, and sweat beads trying to figure out the possible scenarios just to see that trading down very well could happen.

i've expressed my desire to trade down if the opportunity arises. i'll leave it at that for now.

[atwater27]

Ummm, maybe a team like us when we moved up to get Cutler?

[lex]

Ummm, maybe a team like us when we moved up to get Cutler?

Go look at eessydo's posts. This just doesnt cut it.


So far, there are only a couple of people in this thread who aren't relying on the Trade Down Fairy.

[BOSSHOGG30]

Ummm, maybe a team like us when we moved up to get Cutler?

Good point Atwater.... who would of thought we would trade up for Jarvis Moss like we did. Teams get jumpy during the draft... you never know... especially when you have like two or three top players at one position and you have teams jocking for them.... McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall just might be that position. Once two of those guys are off the board... you just might have a team or two fighting to get the last guy on the board. Same thing happened once Young and Leinart were both off the board and Cutler was all that was left.